Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

A collapse in Sussan Ley’s approval drives the Coalition’s worst primary vote in the history of Newspoll, as One Nation continues to surge.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks finds no abatement in the Coalition’s loss of support to One Nation, with the former down four on the primary vote since the last poll to 24% and the latter up four to 15%. This smashes records at both ends: the Coalition’s 27% in the previous poll was already their worst ever, while One Nation’s previous record was 13%. Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 36% and 11% respectively, with Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 57-43. Sussan Ley’s approval rating has tumbled seven points to 25%, while her disapproval is up nine to 58%. Anthony Albanese is at 46% approval and 51% disapproval, both up one from last time, and leads 54-27 on preferred prime minister, out from 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1265.

James Campbell of News Corp also reported yesterday on a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which had gone quiet since markedly overstating Coalition support in its polling before the May federal election. It found Labor leading 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31% and One Nation 10%, with no result provided in the report for the Greens. The poll also found 35% holding that the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 52% for wrong direction; that 22% now rate immigration “one of the most important issues they want the federal government to focus on”, compared with 11% in February 2024.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,477 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 25 of 50
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  1. SLsays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 3:35 pm
    I generally don’t post much about renewable energy in WA, because it’s separate to the NEM and governed by different rules which I don’t totally understand. But, how’s this for a record?
    中华人民共和国
    I take it cobber that the “Rooftop Solar” figure is able to be measured using “Smartmeters”? Also that those very same “Smartmeters” are allowing some Rooftop Solar to feed back into the grid reducing the need for fossil fuels?

  2. pied piper says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 3:55 pm
    __________________________

    Absolute, 100% total unmitigated crap.

    Lee Kuan Yew was one of JOHN HOWARD’S best mates. That is the reason Optus got the gig in Australia.

    Every day in every way, he needs another hobby !.

  3. Upnorth says Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 4:05 pm

    I take it cobber that the “Rooftop Solar” figure is able to be measured using “Smartmeters”? Also that those very same “Smartmeters” are allowing some Rooftop Solar to feed back into the grid reducing the need for fossil fuels?

    I doubt most WA homes have a smart meter. We certainly don’t. It’s probably being measured by the inputs to the grid from residential areas (that’s a total guess on my behalf).

    If you have a traditional meter I think it starts spinning backwards when you export to the grid. The meter we were given after installing solar in 2011 would record inputs and exports, but had no external connectivity.

  4. Ante Meridiansays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 2:25 pm
    For a complete change of subject, can anyone (preferably someone who speaks French) explain to me why the plural of Grand Prix appears to be Grands Prix? Surely grand is an adjective so can’t be pluralised. It would be like saying ‘Greats Prize’.

    And while you’re at it, why doesn’t the adjective come after the noun like it usually does in French?
    – – – – – – – – –
    Prix in French is both singular and plural (like sheep in English). Un prix, deux prix, trois prix…. So Grands Prix = Great prizes.

    I’m a bit sketchy on the second question, but I would say that not all adjectives follow the noun. I note, for example, the Tour de France is also known as La Grande Boucle – the big loop. A quick survey says that adjectives that “expand” the noun go after, ones that limit the noun go before. Grand, as in prix, limits the noun, in the sense you are specifying a particular prize (the big one) rather than just adding more information like talking about the Moulin Rouge. I realise that moulin rouge also “limits” things – the red one as opposed to all the other coloured mills – but that where it all gets a bit sketchy for a non-grammarian.

  5. bcsays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 4:13 pm
    Upnorth says Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 4:05 pm

    I take it cobber that the “Rooftop Solar” figure is able to be measured using “Smartmeters”? Also that those very same “Smartmeters” are allowing some Rooftop Solar to feed back into the grid reducing the need for fossil fuels?

    I doubt most WA homes have a smart meter. We certainly don’t. It’s probably being measured by the inputs to the grid from residential areas (that’s a total guess on my behalf).

    If you have a traditional meter I think it starts spinning backwards when you export to the grid. The meter we were given after installing solar in 2011 would record inputs and exports, but had no external connectivity.
    中华人民共和国
    Thanks cobber. Interesting. At least your exporting to the grid – well done.

  6. Upnorth says Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 4:16 pm

    Thanks cobber. Interesting. At least your exporting to the grid – well done.

    I could be exporting a lot more if they let me (and hopefully paid me). I’m currently export limited to 1.5kW.

  7. If you have a traditional meter I think it starts spinning backwards when you export to the grid. The meter we were given after installing solar in 2011 would record inputs and exports, but had no external connectivity.

    Yeah back about 10 years ago when I had traditional meter and it did go backwards with solar exports.
    Only just recently did the power provider install a internet connected smart meter on my house in NSW.
    I have had my own smart meter via the Powerwall gateway for sometime, and now I can compare that with the data from the power providers apps.

  8. I tried to check how many smart meters WA has. However, according to the AEMC, WA doesn’t exist (bottom of page):
    https://www.aemc.gov.au/news-centre/media-releases/aemc-finalises-landmark-reform-accelerate-smart-meter-rollout

    Regardless, that rooftop solar is feeding back into the grid.

    Also, rooftop solar generation is estimated using a method similar to polling:

    “Performance data are sourced at up to 5 minute intervals from more than 6000 PV systems PV systems in 57 regions across Australia. The 57 regions are based on postcodes beginning in the same first two digits (‘2-digit postcode regions’).”
    https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/live

  9. bcsays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 4:19 pm
    Upnorth says Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 4:16 pm

    Thanks cobber. Interesting. At least your exporting to the grid – well done.

    I could be exporting a lot more if they let me (and hopefully paid me). I’m currently export limited to 1.5kW.
    中华人民共和国
    Roger – China has really invested heavily in “Poles and Wires” to allow renewables to flow into the system.

  10. SL says Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 3:35 pm

    I generally don’t post much about renewable energy in WA, because it’s separate to the NEM and governed by different rules which I don’t totally understand. But, how’s this for a record?

    Rooftop solar could have been a lot higher if they had not until recently restricted most households to 5kW inverters per phase and up to 1/3 more solar panel power (more if you had batteries).

    It will be interesting to see what happens when flexible exports are allowed: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/wa-flexible-smarter-solar-mb3301/

  11. bc at 4.13pm.

    I can’t speak for other states but in the Cave, before your roof top solar can be commissioned, Western Power have to change your meter to one that records both imported and exported power. I am not aure if they can be interrogated remotely but I haven’t seen a Western Power meter reader in ages.

    When you get your bill it details both imported and exported power.

  12. To complement what CBR said:

    With the French adjectives, the general rule is that the BAGS one go before the noun, except in the exceptions, bien sur!

    Beauty (beau, belle, joli)
    Age (jeune, vieux)
    Goodness (bon, mauvais)
    Size (grand, petit). etc.

    And a most French adjectives agree in number, you add an s if it is plural.

  13. From The Guardian Live Blog

    ‘Albanese attacks Coalition over food bank funding

    The shadow attorney general, Andrew Wallace, stands up next and also asks about data released by Foodbank, which found nearly 200,000 Queensland families went an entire day without eating in the past year.

    Anthony Albanese says it’s “somewhat perplexing” that the opposition is asking about a report by Foodbank, when the former Coalition government cut their funding.

    How in tactics committee when someone came up with the question of let’s ask about Foodbank, [someone] did not go: ‘Actually, what might be a little uncomfortable is the fact we ripped out $20m per year out of funding for Foodbank.’

    Sussan Ley tries to make a point of order as Albanese keeps slamming the opposition, but she’s shut down by Milton Dick.’
    ====================
    Shooting fish in a barrel.
    But why do the fish keep lining up for self harm? Surely they can think of a question that does not blow up in their faces?

  14. I quite like the Pied Piper posting here. It’s a sharp insight into what’s really happening in the Liberal Party.

    His idea yesterday for a “Grand Coalition” with the Libs, Nats and One Nation joining forces and Pauline Hanson as a Minister should be floated more by those on the Tory side.

    I get the feeling that most Australians would take a very dim view of such an “unholy” alliance and the electoral suicide of such a move would be a wonder to behold.

  15. Upnorth says Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 4:28 pm

    Roger – China has really invested heavily in “Poles and Wires” to allow renewables to flow into the system.

    I think I heard on a podcast a few months back (it might have been the Transmissions podcast) that in 2024 China installed 400GW of additional capacity. The entire US electrical system totals 1.2TW.

    Wikipedia states that China installed over 373GW of renewables in 2024: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China.

    According to this, China installed 333GW of solar in 2024, more than the rest of the world combined.

    According to Google’s AI (so get out the salt) “In 2024, China installed a record
    429 GW of new net capacity, driven primarily by wind and solar power. Wind and solar accounted for 83% of the total, with 277.17 GW of solar and 79.8 GW of wind added. This massive expansion helped China surpass its 2030 target for wind and solar capacity by the end of July 2024.”

  16. I’m very happy with the progress that China is making on the ERevolution.
    But this has to be balanced with the whole picture.
    China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined.
    Last year was China’s record year for coal production.
    China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.
    By far.
    China’s net zero target year is 2060.

  17. Latest DemosAU poll Victoria (state) voting intention.

    L/NP: 37% (-1)
    ALP: 26% (-)
    GRN: 15% (-)
    ⬛️ OTH: 22% (+1)

    Two-party-preferred
    L/NP: 51% (-)
    ALP: 49% (-)

    DemosAU | 21-27 Oct | n=1016 | MoE ±3.8% | +/- 2-9 Sep

  18. Mystery solved on what the Labor parties Tax office does with the 20 dei officers.

    They sort the tax payed for by cash into piles by…

    Males on notes
    Females on notes
    People of colour on notes etc

  19. Farmers for Climate Action released the results of a poll today of 2000 people in Renewable Energy Zones in NSW, QLD and VIC. The key results are:

    – Opposition to clean energy projects across all Renewable Energy Zones steady at 17%
    – Strong majority of 62% across all Renewable Energy Zones support clean energy projects
    – Those polled underestimate support for clean energy in their communities: 37% of local residents realise there is majority support for clean energy in their region

    https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/press-releases/listen-to-farmers-not-facebook-regional-support-for-clean-energy-projects-steady-at-62/

  20. newy boy says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 5:23 pm
    PP – RUOK?
    中华人民共和国
    As I said before I think he is doing just fine. I really hope his plans for a “Grand Coalition” come off.

  21. His idea yesterday for a “Grand Coalition” with the Libs, Nats and One Nation joining forces and Pauline Hanson as a Minister should be floated more by those on the Tory side.

    Pauline would simply be the Liberal who came in from the cold once the rest of the party has caught up with her overt performative bigotry.

  22. c@t: “Lee Kuan Yew was one of JOHN HOWARD’S best mates. That is the reason Optus got the gig in Australia.”
    ——————————————————————————–
    c@t, I’m not sure that’s right.

    I’m pretty certain that Optus was given the second carrier licence while Hawke was still PM. At that stage, Optus (which was the privatised form of AUSSAT) was owned by a consortium of local and foreign companies, none of which was SingTel. One of those companies, the UK-based Cable and Wireless, ended up owning most or all of Optus before Howard became PM. Then in 2000-01, Cable and Wireless sold Optus to SingTel.

    I’m not sure you can blame Howard for much of that story, if “blame” is the right word. Optus clearly has management and operational problems, but the extent to which those problems can be attributed to the company’s Singaporean character is questionable. In my experience, Singaporean companies are generally well-run and efficient. SingTel/Optus is perhaps just a bad apple.

    And I’ve never heard that Lee and Howard were at all close. Lee gave Howard a massive serve when he was LOTO back in the 1980s and Howard was flirting with a migration policy that would discriminate against Asians.

    Lee and Keating were quite chummy back in the day as I recall it. And fair enough, too. Lee certainly had his faults, but he did so much right as Singapore’s founding leader.

  23. DemosAU continues to be way better for the Coalition in Victoria than other polsters. Either they are picking something up everyone else is missing, or we could have another Freshwater situation.

  24. Those Victorian figures are interesting. Looks like the government might have a bit of a fight on its hands if the Liberals ever get their act together.

  25. Optus is required in Australia.

    I’m pretty certain that change will be forced on them behind closed doors with senior executives summarily managed out.

  26. Upnorth – yep, PP’s word salads bode well for Labor to get 100+ seats in 2028 if they’re a faithful reflection of the thinking at Liberal HQ. 😆

  27. Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 6:11 pm
    Hoping that in the next year, Victorian Labor does not repeat the mistakes of the Brumby government that caused it to lose in 2010.

    Which mistakes did you have in mind Kirsdarke?

  28. Lee Kuan Yew lead a political party with strong fraternal links to the ALP.

    He and Gough didn’t get along after Gough ‘congratulated’ him for being the first world leader of a ‘Westminster System’ to turn the country into a one party state. As Meher notes PJK got along with him fine. I think Meher is also right about the chronology: Optus was originally a consortium of local and foreign investors back in the Hawke-Keating era before SingTel brought them out. I’ve been a customer for 30 years – ever since Telstra went to the dogs.

    Until Malcolm fucked up the NBN I benefited from Optus Cable for 15 years – fast and reliable coaxial cable internet – because I live under the escapement in earlwood we had terrible mobile coverage and free to air TV coverage so Optus TV also was a godsend because we could boost our cellular connection at home TV Optus cable and also watch free two air channels and an increasing selection of streaming services as they increasingly became a thing last decade. Of course Malcolm ‘mandated’ that our Optus cable (hung from telegraph poles) had to be replaced with … coaxial cable internet the ground (and not fibre) which means that everytime it rained we had coverage drop outs. After persisting with Malcolm’s dodgy NBN for 5 years we switched over to Optus’s 5G broadband earlier this year (because more mobile phone towers across Wolli Creek at Turella actually pointed in the right direction – finally (before the towers on the top of the escapement (one only 50M away would not send and receive to our home under the hill)! Whilst I’d go back to a full fibre network in a heartbeat, the 5G broadband beats Malcolm’s fraudband hands down.

  29. I think that Ley might be a winner by kicking back at the right wingers over their still births/abortion comments. Their comments were indeed insensitive and there are a lot women (and men) who have had the misfortune of losing a pregnancy. Fighting back against the hard right “Pro-Lifers” is not going to do her any harm.

  30. Bystandersays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 6:22 pm
    Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 6:11 pm
    Hoping that in the next year, Victorian Labor does not repeat the mistakes of the Brumby government that caused it to lose in 2010.

    Which mistakes did you have in mind Kirsdarke?
    _______________________
    Probably getting caught out fudging the crime stats.

  31. Fastwheelssays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 5:15 pm
    Brad Battin has increased his lead as preferred premier.
    _______________________
    Promoting Jess Wilson to Shadow Treasurer looks to have paid off already.

  32. Bystander @ #1240 Wednesday, November 5th, 2025 – 6:22 pm

    Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 6:11 pm
    Hoping that in the next year, Victorian Labor does not repeat the mistakes of the Brumby government that caused it to lose in 2010.

    Which mistakes did you have in mind Kirsdarke?

    Well, the state of the Public Transport network for a start. Brumby was stubborn and arrogant and overlooked how big of a weakness it was for his government, especially since Peter Batchelor started much of the rot, especially about Myki and then left it to Lynne Kosky to take most of the blame in the aftermath.

  33. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 6:34 pm
    Lee Kuan Yew lead a political party with strong fraternal links to the ALP.

    He and Gough didn’t get along after Gough ‘congratulated’ him for being the first world leader of a ‘Westminster System’ to turn the country into a one party state. As Meher notes PJK got along with him fine. I think Meher is also right about the chronology: Optus was originally a consortium of local and foreign investors back in the Hawke-Keating era before SingTel brought them out. I’ve been a customer for 30 years – ever since Telstra went to the dogs.

    Until Malcolm fucked up the NBN I benefited from Optus Cable for 15 years – fast and reliable coaxial cable internet – because I live under the escapement in earlwood we had terrible mobile coverage and free to air TV coverage so Optus TV also was a godsend because we could boost our cellular connection at home TV Optus cable and also watch free two air channels and an increasing selection of streaming services as they increasingly became a thing last decade. Of course Malcolm ‘mandated’ that our Optus cable (hung from telegraph poles) had to be replaced with … coaxial cable internet the ground (and not fibre) which means that everytime it rained we had coverage drop outs. After persisting with Malcolm’s dodgy NBN for 5 years we switched over to Optus’s 5G broadband earlier this year (because more mobile phone towers across Wolli Creek at Turella actually pointed in the right direction – finally (before the towers on the top of the escapement (one only 50M away would not send and receive to our home under the hill)! Whilst I’d go back to a full fibre network in a heartbeat, the 5G broadband beats Malcolm’s fraudband hands down.
    中华人民共和国
    Earlwood is right. The People’s Action Party (PAP) and the Australian Labor Party are “sister”Parties. The National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) of Singapore is similar to our ACTU and plays an important role in the PAP. We share some resources come elections and I went to Singapore to help the PAP in the 1997 General Election.

    The PAP IMHO has delivered in spades for Singaporeans. From a disease infested, polluted swamp left by the British it now has one the highest standards of living in the world. Everyone can own their own place through the Housing Development Board (has to be an apartment though) and it’s one of the safest places in the world.

    There are problems – just like any successful nation. Housing costs have increased as has inflation (sound familiar).

    LKY and the PAP built modern Singapore – a new Nation whose only assets were its people and location. Keating and Hawke both got on with him.

    I was fortunate to meet him three times. His vision on water treatment and capture helped Queensland out greatly in the millennial drought and we are eternally grateful to the Public Utilities Board of Singapore for help in building and infrastructure in South East Queensland to help withstand future drought events.

  34. Nationals leader David Littleproud and senior Liberals have held secret talks on how to harmonise the Coalition’s energy policies after the junior partner’s decision to ditch net zero triggered a week of leadership turmoil for Sussan Ley. The meeting on Wednesday evening discussed the potential mechanisms to bring down emissions and how pro-climate moderates could be placated over their concerns on climate mitigation, according to sources familiar with the meeting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sussan-ley-vows-her-leadership-will-survive-political-killing-season-20251105-p5n7tp.html

  35. Upnorth says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 7:18 pm

    There are problems –
    …’
    ===================
    A terrible extinction record being one of them.

  36. I’ve been following the US Government shutdown a bit, with the Democrats refusing to compromise on Health costs (Medicare and certain “Obamacare” provisions”.

    John Oliver did a deep dive into this last week (and John Stewart had a similar but cut-down version). The headline numbers are just staggering. Noting that costs vary state to state (I don’t know by how much), but they gave examples of a couple earning $90-odd k per year having to find anywhere between $15000 and $25000 *extra* to fund their health insurance if the bill is passed. Not total, extra. Who – on middling incomes – can find a lazy $20 grand every year to keep their insurance up to date? A “cost of living” hike in the most literal sense.

    Due to the bogus conditions around pre-existing conditions some people won’t be able to get insurance even if they could fund it. A separate issue, but still infuriating.

    Part of me wonders what would have happened if the Democrats had just passed the bill and watched MAGA support in the red states implode. Wondering aside, for any party positioning itself as progressive, this is a hill they should be willing to die on. So while the situation with SNAP and so on is hurting the poor as of right now, the longer term consequences of caving now would be disastrous for them (both the people in need of health coverage and the Democrats).

  37. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 7:26 pm

    Nationals leader David Littleproud and senior Liberals have held secret talks on how to harmonise the Coalition’s energy policies …’
    ===================
    The National’s tail wagging the Liberal dog. It appears you can’t teach an old Liberal dog new tricks.

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