Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

A collapse in Sussan Ley’s approval drives the Coalition’s worst primary vote in the history of Newspoll, as One Nation continues to surge.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks finds no abatement in the Coalition’s loss of support to One Nation, with the former down four on the primary vote since the last poll to 24% and the latter up four to 15%. This smashes records at both ends: the Coalition’s 27% in the previous poll was already their worst ever, while One Nation’s previous record was 13%. Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 36% and 11% respectively, with Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 57-43. Sussan Ley’s approval rating has tumbled seven points to 25%, while her disapproval is up nine to 58%. Anthony Albanese is at 46% approval and 51% disapproval, both up one from last time, and leads 54-27 on preferred prime minister, out from 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1265.

James Campbell of News Corp also reported yesterday on a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which had gone quiet since markedly overstating Coalition support in its polling before the May federal election. It found Labor leading 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31% and One Nation 10%, with no result provided in the report for the Greens. The poll also found 35% holding that the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 52% for wrong direction; that 22% now rate immigration “one of the most important issues they want the federal government to focus on”, compared with 11% in February 2024.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,477 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

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  2. ‘subgeometer says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 12:00 pm

    BW

    If you think that someone should punished for something that wasn’t a crime at the time , maybe you have more in common with the CCP than you care to admit’
    =================
    Had he given up his US citizenship? If not, it was an alleged crime. That would, incidentally, be the very first time you have made a direct or implied negative comment about the CCP, would it not? Well done!

  4. Shellbell at 11.43am.

    “There is an equivalent law brought in after the period of alleged offending.”

    Is it true that you can’t apply a law retrospectively?

    Boarwar at 11.44am.

    Are you suggesting that Duggan trained Chinese pilots to kill Australian pilots?

  5. IMO, the most likely pilots that Chinese Carrier pilots are being trained to kill are Taiwanese, US and Japanese. Although their various extremely dangerous stunts may one day lead them to down yet another aircraft ‘by accident’.

  6. Thank you for the Polestar reviews.

    The lack of spare tyre is a thing, but the puncture repair kit looks easy to use and easier than changing the wheel.

  7. Victoria’s Energy Department predicts wholesale energy prices will be significantly higher than previously expected, in another sign of upward pressure on power costs in the state.
    _______________________
    Who is worse at forecasting energy prices ?
    D’Ambrosio or Bowen.
    It’s neck and neck. Just when you think its Bowen, up pops Lily with another howler.

  8. ‘Chief Health Officer Andy Robertson set to retire
    Western Australia’s Chief Health Officer (CHO) Dr Andy Robertson has announced his retirement.’

    Wa prem press releases today.

    A Legend who beat covid due to a commonsense response.

    Vic a woke disaster on covid.

  9. “Is it true that you can’t apply a law retrospectively?”

    You can.

    However, the question here is a little different. Normally to extradite, the crime alleged in the foreign state must be a crime here.

    What is less clear is whether Oz making something criminal after the event creates the necessary link.

  11. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 12:42 pm
    Thank you for the Polestar reviews.
    The lack of spare tyre is a thing, but the puncture repair kit looks easy to use and easier than changing the wheel.
    _______________________
    What about rim damage ? You will need a spare if you plan on driving in regional Vic with all the potholes.

  13. ‘Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 12:52 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 12:42 pm
    Thank you for the Polestar reviews.
    The lack of spare tyre is a thing, but the puncture repair kit looks easy to use and easier than changing the wheel.
    _______________________
    What about rim damage ? You will need a spare if you plan on driving in regional Vic with all the potholes.’
    ================
    One of the ways in which the tories try to undermine the Victorian Labor Government is potholes.
    To fix potholes nationally would take between $2 and $3 billion. The ever increase of bigger and bigger utes is just one of the drivers. Socialism gone mad?

  14. Some various thoughts on recent posts (in no particular order).

    Australian Test Squad Members Clubs
    John Hazlewood was originally a country cricketer, playing for his hometown of Bendemeer, before being recruited by St. George. He was known as, “The Bendemeer Bullet”.

    Usman Khawaja originally played for Randwick-Petersham in the Sydney Grade competition before migrating to QLD a few years ago.

    Barnaby’s claim that solar and wind aren’t renewables
    Technically, Barnaby is actually correct!

    In about 5-6 billion years, when the sun reaches the end of its life, transforms into a red giant and incinerates the earth, there will be no solar or wind energy available (and no earth). So beyond that time scale, those energy sources are no renewable.

    Cost blowout of the BOM website
    Latest media is reporting that the total budget for the project was more like $150M rather than $80M. Reports also mentioned a big chunk of the budget being dedicated to the content management system (CMS).

    I could spend a few hrs of my time digging through tender repsonse documents mentioned in media reports but that are hours of my remaining life that I will never get back, so I won’t.

    Instead, I’m going to guess what I would probably find; a big, fat line item for the annual licence fee for the CMS the supplier installed. It wouldn’t suprise me if this was in the order of $5-10M pa. Essentially this is just free money the supplier awards themself.

    This could also be ontop of an annual maintenance fee they would also charge (typically 15% of the total development cost, so maybe another $15M-$20M pa.

    Why am I banging on about this?

    Because there is a world class CMS that has been successfully installed in many large and complex government organisations around the world for many years called Drupal and it is 100% free to use (open source – no licence fees).

    I would be surpised if there wasn’t a supplier on the shortlist of this tender that was proposing Drupal. There are some serious players in the Australian government web development space that use Drupal as their preferred CMS.

    This would be another case of an uninformed buyer getting nervous and selecting the more expensive commerical product on the false assumption that it must be better.

    Slow death of the Melbourne Cup
    In a previous life I worked in the racing industry, mainly as a handicapper. I no longer follow racing. But OC’s comment about the slow death of the Melbourne Cup re-awakened a thought I had about that race 30 years ago.

    Back then in the 90’s, two major changes were happening to the Melbourne Cup. One, it was being internationalised, with increasing numbers of European horses coming out to compete. Two, the weight scale of the race was being compressed (essentially the higher class horses being given lower handicap weights), mainly to attract the higher class European horses to the race. Eventually, the VRC decided to legitimise this sham and made the Melbourne Cup a quality handicap.

    At the time when I saw those two changes increasingly happening, I thought that the race was losing its romance. The romance of the Cup was a mix of tried and true pathways horses followed to get into the cup field and sometimes within those pathways, extraordinary stories of how horses came from far flung places to reach the pinnacle of Cup victory, or maybe just fall short.

    In 1983, Kiwi came from an NZ dairy farm (trained by the dairy farmer himself) and a distant last on the turn, with a whirlwind finish to claim the Cup. In 1977, Reckless, trained by Phar Lap’s strapper, Tommy Woodcock, won the Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane Cups (all 3200M races) and ran a gallant 2nd in the race.

    These are just two romantic stories, amongst many more that today’s international quality handicap Melbourne Cup can no longer produce.

    Who cares if a horse owned by a billionnaire, bred in the absolute purple, that went through the sale ring for $10M wins the Cup? It’s just another story of corporate, global wealth dominating.

    OK that’s me done for the day. Time for me to go for my rehab swim in cold water (around 16C) at my local pool in the Blue Mountains.

  15. Govts have to do a lot better PR re cheaper renewable energy.
    People have to understand that sticking with gas and coal for energy is the more expensive choice.

  16. From The Guardian’s politics blog:

    ‘…
    Chaney and the fellow crossbenchers have drafted a raft of amendments, including to redesign the proposed “offsets” fund, prevent the minister from using a new “national interest” exemption to approve fossil fuel projects and insert climate as an object of the act.
    …’
    ====================
    How the Teals vote is irrelevant. It is worth noting that the Teals vote implies that they would stick with BAU rather than see reform without a climate trigger. Albanese has gone to two elections without the climate trigger.

  17. mjsays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 11:04 am
    From the Guardian blog:

    “Cook defends WA’s GST take

    WA, which has declared itself as having the strongest economy in the nation, also gets a phenomenally generous take of the GST carve-up between states and territories.

    Economists like Saul Eslake have been advocating to change the Morrison-era deal that put a floor under WA’s GST take and will give the state an extra $60bn in tax revenue over the next decade.

    Roger Cook tells ABC RN Breakfast that while his state only represents 11% of the nation, it contributes 45% of the nation’s exports, and is the “biggest contributor to the nation’s GDP.”

    Prior to the actual deal that was done to preserve our 75% floor of the GST share, we saw Western Australia’s contribution to the other states reach almost 90%. That is, we just retained 11% of our GST. Now in WA we utilise that revenue to ensure that we can develop the economic infrastructure, create the sort of frameworks and the regulation for the industry which ultimately pays significant resources to the Commonwealth and other states through company tax and other measures.

    Host, Sally Sara pushes back saying Eslake argues that private industry provides a lot of that infrastructure, but Cook says the state government provides the roads, water and port infrastructure.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/nov/05/australia-politics-live-nauru-deportations-labor-greens-coalition-anthony-albanese-sussan-ley-nationals-leadership-net-zero-question-time-ntwnfb

    ________________________

    As I have posted before, it is insanity that we have a tax that shouts in the faces of grocery shoppers as to how little their taxes go to local local service.

    And it is is willful ignorance of people like Eslake to not acknowledge that such a tax design creates a strong “taxation without representation” culture amongst people at the loosing end of this relationship. Besides, aren’t Tasmanians complaining that wind farms and the Manus link “steals their electricity” for the benefit of the mainland?

    Either the GST relativity floor is kept or the tax is federalised and funding handed out through some other means.

  19. Rex Douglas says Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 1:11 pm

    Looks like Ley will buy some time for herself until retirement by capitulating on net zero.
    Libs of the past is dead.

    So Labor and the Liberals aren’t the same?

  21. “So Labor and the Liberals aren’t the same?”
    ___________________

    They’re same on gas/coal exports, native forest logging, offshore asylum seeker prisons, AUKUS, NACC, religious tax benefits, keeping people in poverty, mutual obligations, political donations, negative gearing, treaty…

  22. On Phar Lap – the name is Thai for “Lightning” (Phar Dum means Thunderstorm).

    I have a “large” mate from home who visits me a couple of times a year. He goes to a “Fat Farm” down south. Loses 5kg then goes back to Oz and puts it all back on. He has become quite friendly with my Thai mates. All Thais have to have a nickname so I suggested we call the big fella “Phar Lap”.

    When asked why, I said because of his speed. Australian humour is sometimes lost outside Oz.

  23. Wait a minute Upnorth, are you saying the very fine 1983 documentary Phar Lap wasnt on the mark that they just needed a 7 letter name as thats what the previous MC winners had?

  26. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 1:42 pm
    Wait a minute Upnorth, are you saying the very fine 1983 documentary Phar Lap wasnt on the mark that they just needed a 7 letter name as thats what the previous MC winners had?
    中华人民共和国
    The name Phar Lap derives from the common Zhuang and Thai word for lightning: ฟ้าแลบ [fáː lɛ̂p], literally ‘sky flash’.

  30. Popular folklore has it that the name originally proposed for the racehorse was Far Lap (meaning, as you say, Upnorth, lightning), but the owner decided he needed seven letters to match the previous umpteen Melbourne Cup winners.

  31. Ante Meridiansays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 2:00 pm
    Popular folklore has it that the name originally proposed for the racehorse was Far Lap (meaning, as you say, Upnorth, lightning), but the owner decided he needed seven letters to match the previous umpteen Melbourne Cup winners.
    中华人民共和国
    Well now it’s my big mates nickname and I can tell you this “Phar Lap” has been grazing in the top paddock.

  32. The democrats just had to kick back and enjoy the free win but instead they debased themselves and refused to stand up for their nominee when he is undergoing a viciously racist campaign on the level of Trumps Haiti racism, run by a member of their own party no less.
    It will be interesting to see how this manifests going forward, if at all, but for the here and now im willing to bet the old guard have few friends in the electorate.

  34. Boerwar

    “One of the ways in which the tories try to undermine the Victorian Labor Government is potholes.
    To fix potholes nationally would take between $2 and $3 billion. The ever increase of bigger and bigger utes is just one of the drivers. Socialism gone mad?”
    —————————————————
    Where did you get those cost numbers? More and bigger utes is an issue that is causing more damage to roads. But this effectively is still dwarfed by trucks.

    The main problem is that in an era of declining fuel excise tax revenue to fund roads, and a rapidly rising population and need to build roads, road maintenance funds have been squeezed as a result. Rising EV numbers exacerbate the problem.

    Engineers Australia have been raising this lately in a discussion paper on road pricing. You can debate the solution, but the current road funding model for Australia is broken.

  35. For a complete change of subject, can anyone (preferably someone who speaks French) explain to me why the plural of Grand Prix appears to be Grands Prix? Surely grand is an adjective so can’t be pluralised. It would be like saying ‘Greats Prize’.

    And while you’re at it, why doesn’t the adjective come after the noun like it usually does in French?

  38. In response to Granny Anny & Shellbell’s posts re. retrospective legislation:

    Here are prominent examples of retrospective federal legislation

    [‘War Crimes Amendment Act 1988 (Cth):

    This legislation made it a criminal offense under Australian law to commit a war crime in Europe between September 1, 1939, and May 8, 1945. It was famously used in the prosecution of Ivan Polyukhovich, an Australian citizen charged with war crimes committed in Ukraine in the 1940s.

    Criminal Code Amendment (Offences Against Australians) Act 2002 (Cth):

    This act was introduced in response to the Bali bombings on October 12, 2002. It created new offenses for murder, manslaughter, and causing serious harm to Australians outside of Australia and applied retrospectively to conduct from October 1, 2002.

    Taxation (Unpaid Company Tax) Assessment Act 1982 (Cth):

    This act is cited as an example of retrospective legislation that altered the future legal consequences of past events.

    Deterring People Smuggling Act 2011 (Cth):

    This act amended the Migration Act 1958 with retrospective effect, ensuring that assisting asylum seekers’ entry into Australia had always been an offence.’]

    A rather long paper on retrospective legislation:

    https://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/FedLRev/1994/10.pdf

  39. Soc
    Those figures are old so dredged up from the memory banks. Not sure where IO got them. The Grattan Institute is recommending an additional billion a year on potholes. The order of magnitude ($billion) is right but it might be between $2 billion and $5 billion to fix the backlog.
    The way in which the rabid right have been using potholes to take potshots was my point.

  40. From The Guardian Live Blog:

    ‘Opposition accuses Labor of ‘rushing’ nature legislation’

    Trying to turn it into another barnacle to be scraped off six months before the next election?

  41. From The Guardian Live Blog

    ‘Katter asks agriculture minister about invasive weeds

    Speaking of journeys, Bob Katter gets the next crossbench question, but he’s very serious today.

    He asks the agriculture minister, Julie Collins, about what the government is doing about the prickly acacia and buffel grass, which he says the cattle industry is being overrun by.

    Collins says the government will work with the states and territories.

    Any future decisions on weed priorities including decisions on this one would be made collaboratively by all state and territory governments along with the commonwealth because as the member would be aware and territories are responsible for the management of pests … in their jurisdictions.’
    ========================
    Um… farmers want individual control over everything. Anything else is socialism and governments telling them what to do. If a farmer has Prickly Acacia and Buffel Grass problems then the farmer should nobly and individually conquer those problems.

  42. From The Guardian Live Blog

    ‘McCormack chides Coalition colleagues for not giving Ley ‘clear air’ as leader

    Everyone’s blabbing to everyone, is a bit of the vibe in the Coalition this week, and Nationals MP Michael McCormack is telling his colleagues to stop backgrounding to journos.
    ….’
    ——————-
    The deluge of dribble continues.

  43. I generally don’t post much about renewable energy in WA, because it’s separate to the NEM and governed by different rules which I don’t totally understand. But, how’s this for a record?

  45. You left out the good bit, BW, where MickMac says, “Backgrounding journalists and calling your parliamentary Coalition colleagues ‘parasites’ – I’m sorry, I can’t wear that.”.

  47. Boerwar 2:51

    Fair enough. I respect Grattan’s work but think the $ might be dated.

    In Australia now we are spending $30 billion per year on road construction and maintenance. Local government alone is $5 billion per annum. The true “pothole backlog” figure would be far higher.

    A fundamental problem is we are building some of the most expensive (often tunneled) freeways in the world. This then leads to a lack of funds remaining for maintenance.

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