The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks finds no abatement in the Coalition’s loss of support to One Nation, with the former down four on the primary vote since the last poll to 24% and the latter up four to 15%. This smashes records at both ends: the Coalition’s 27% in the previous poll was already their worst ever, while One Nation’s previous record was 13%. Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 36% and 11% respectively, with Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 57-43. Sussan Ley’s approval rating has tumbled seven points to 25%, while her disapproval is up nine to 58%. Anthony Albanese is at 46% approval and 51% disapproval, both up one from last time, and leads 54-27 on preferred prime minister, out from 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1265.
James Campbell of News Corp also reported yesterday on a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which had gone quiet since markedly overstating Coalition support in its polling before the May federal election. It found Labor leading 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31% and One Nation 10%, with no result provided in the report for the Greens. The poll also found 35% holding that the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 52% for wrong direction; that 22% now rate immigration “one of the most important issues they want the federal government to focus on”, compared with 11% in February 2024.
Ley’s Libs need to turn teal
No result for The Greens in the Freshwater poll!?!
Ley’s Libs need to turn teal
_______________
Her supporters must be turning livid.
Upnorth says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:21 pm
Bludgertrack will be interesting.
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Hanson’s vote jumped up to 14.6% on BT when the “Essential Report” data was plugged in LW.
Newspoll showing 15% for her tonight. I’m guessing her BT vote is going to rise again.
Greens down 1 to 11 C@t
Scott – Do you want to update.
Before or after Chrissie.
So Approval as well as Disapproval is up for the PM. More undecideds making up their minds one way or the other.
Pedant
The biggest threat to Labor is the potential job loses from AI.
Federal lib /nats combined primary vote 24%
Federal liberal party primary vote likely 11/12%
BKsays:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:26 pm
Ley’s Libs need to turn teal
_______________
Her supporters must be turning livid.
中华人民共和国
With the median age of Liberal Branch Members being 72 they might be turning grey BK?
Upnorth,
Yeah I misread it. It only applies to the Freshwater poll. However, it’s still an unusual tack to take for any pollster to leave The Greens out of their calculations.
And while I’m at it, speaking about The Greens, I wonder if they will get the message from these polls that they are sending a message from the people polled that they would prefer it if The Greens dealt with the government rather than being intransigent ideologues.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:31 pm
Scott – Do you want to update.
Before or after Chrissie.
——————–
I still think she will be replaced before parliament sits in 2026
The final 2 weeks of question time this year , will be last for Sussan Ley as federal liberal party leader
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:34 pm
BKsays:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:26 pm
Ley’s Libs need to turn teal
_______________
Her supporters must be turning livid.
中华人民共和国
With the median age of Liberal Branch Members being 72 they might be turning grey BK?
========================
Forget about what colour they turn.
They’ll be reaching for their heart medication when they read this tomorrow morning, and then the base will hit the phones. There will be uproar.
I’m quite sure Freshwater would have asked about the Greens. The result just didn’t get included in the News Corp report.
nadia88says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:36 pm
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:34 pm
BKsays:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:26 pm
Ley’s Libs need to turn teal
_______________
Her supporters must be turning livid.
中华人民共和国
With the median age of Liberal Branch Members being 72 they might be turning grey BK?
========================
Forget about what colour they turn.
They’ll be reaching for their heart medication when they read this tomorrow morning, and then the base will hit the phones. There will be uproar.
中华人民共和国
Can someone volunteer to watch Sky After Dark?
Oh okay. It’s still strange that they wouldn’t be included in the report.
Who loses their job first, Ssussan or Brad Battin in Vic?
One at least will be gone by Christmas. – you would think.
The Moderate ‘liberal’ Liberals, need to merge with the Teals.
So, who’s going to win? The lettuce or Sussan Ley?
This is what the Libs deserve for appointing a DEI hire.
more likely turning turtle… 😀
Tritirm Ted O’Brien . . . come on down!
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:24 pm
Ley’s Libs need to turn teal
—–
Ley’s Libs need to turn tail!
Then again it looks like they already have.
MABWMsays:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:42 pm
Who loses their job first, Ssussan or Brad Battin in Vic?
One at least will be gone by Christmas. – you would think.
中华人民共和国
“Remember Remember the 5th of November. Gunpowder treason and plot!”
We might get a “double bunger” for Guy Fawkes cobber.
1265, why the small sample size, the MoE is +/- 2.7% Labor could be at nearly 60/40?
The new federal liberal party leader no matter who it is Angus Taylor / Ted O’brien or Tim Wilson are in no hurry to be leader for the remainder of the year when the liberal party primary vote at 11/12%
The Greens are on the path to oblivion like the Libs, if they don’t pass the Environmental laws they’ll
be smashed again in 2028 as the recalcitrant blockers they are…
Libs need to be libs when they do under Hastie later next year the votes will return one nation will be stripped etc back to libs.
Good move by Hastie and Price etc on the backbench away from the carnage so seat warmer can do some yards until the A team kick in.
Ley is useless and Trump not too much on the nose in Australia btw as Albo was all over the news loving him in this poll period.
Upnorth says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:46 pm
MABWMsays:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:42 pm
Who loses their job first, Ssussan or Brad Battin in Vic?
One at least will be gone by Christmas. – you would think.
中华人民共和国
“Remember Remember the 5th of November. Gunpowder treason and plot!”
We might get a “double bunger” for Guy Fawkes cobber.
__________________
We could indeed UpNorth. Imagine if they lost two “liberal” leaders in a day!
nadia88:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:13 pm
[‘Gosh 24%.
It’s the end of her.
Thanks Upnorth’]
The problem is: who would replace her? I think Hastie has done his dash after opposing paid paternity leave following a stillbirth. Then there’s Taylor, who probably thinks it’s a poisoned chalice at this point in the electoral cycle, coupled with his less-than-stellar performance as Shadow Treasurer. The only other viable alternative is Tehan, who seems okay but has a charisma deficit. To add to their woes, the Coalition is in danger of collapsing after the Country Party voted against net zero by 2050.
Wow….. that is bad…..
I mean really bad.
Death spiral stuff.
The rise in One Nation is something but it is really just a protest about how crap the LNP are going at the moment from the right. It is not like One Nation has upped their game or anything.
If anything, the LNP have to be really smart about what they block in the senate, because playing too stupid on the environmental laws for example might end up giving the government a DD trigger. A reason for an early election when things are looking this grim for the coalition could result in being reduced to even smaller rump.
So does this mean Newspoll attributes One Nation as the second most popular party (if nats and libs are separated)?
Scott says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:36 pm
nadia88 says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:31 pm
Scott – Do you want to update.
Before or after Chrissie.
——————–
I still think she will be replaced before parliament sits in 2026
The final 2 weeks of question time this year , will be last for Sussan Ley as federal liberal party leader
=========
Fair enough Scott.
The Lower House concludes on Thurs 27-Nov.
So unless they agree to meet again (like the Vic Libs did after Chrissie last year), then she may get turfed out during that week ending 27-Nov. Otherwise they’ve got to wait until Feb. Perhaps they can afford to leave her swinging over summer, but I’m sure everyone in Parliament knows it’s “gonna happen”. Must be awful for her.
I reckon they’ll turf her sooner rather than later.
Taylor has kept his hands clean whilst Hastie & Price have “aired the laundry in public”.
None of them have faced any discipline, and everyone is speaking out of portfolio.
Even Dave Sharma today was actively canvassing a split. Sharma is from the moderate faction.
There’s no internal discipline. It’s a circus.
I don’t think they’ll keep her over summer. I don’t see the point.
Also, from memory, when PM Gillard hit 26% I think the Labor “hard heads” decided that was enough.
24% is even lower.
I’ll put myself down for pre-Christmas.
B. S. Fairman @ #30 Sunday, November 2nd, 2025 – 8:52 pm
Labor would be very foolish to call a DD election at this stage because it would put their best numbers in the Senate in decades into jeopardy, just to elect another 5+ One Nation Senators.
Their best move would be to maintain a holding pattern for the time being, let the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation tear each other apart while they quietly govern in the background. Let the 2028 election go on as normal, let One Nation fight against the Liberals and Nationals.
A great Newspoll all round. I’m not too worried about One Nation’s apparent surge. It is illusory. It is just the angrier RWNJs within and without the LNP parking their misogynist vote between elections.
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herman the german says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:50 pm
The Greens are on the path to oblivion like the Libs, if they don’t pass the Environmental laws they’ll
be smashed again in 2028 as the recalcitrant blockers they are…
————
Schön guten Tag, Herman. Wie geht’s?
– Dyed in the wool Green member and activist here, alter Freund.
I can assure you the Greens are humming along just fine. We celebrated long into the night in May 2025. The primary objectives of the vast majority of Greens voters, are twofold;
1) Keep the Libs out.
2) Make Labor better.
The vast majority of Greens voters are disappointed Labor voters. That’s why 90% of preferences flow back to the ALP. The other 10% are the tree tories. They were never going to vote Labor.
Bandt lost his seat but it was a sacrifice we were prepared to make. We’re here to stay. 36 Primary doesn’t win you government without us. Our 11% are crucial.
(Cue Stooges’ meltdowns.)
Sine die.
Scott says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:47 pm
The new federal liberal party leader no matter who it is Angus Taylor / Ted O’brien or Tim Wilson are in no hurry to be leader for the remainder of the year when the liberal party primary vote at 11/12%
========
Take off the Federal National Party vote of around 4%, and the Libs are probably at 20%, not 11 or 12 %, or are you “deleting” the QLD LNP vote from the tally again!
Uncle Phil says now in fin review the Nats jumped today on climate because one nation is eating their vote.
Me thinks under a new lib team maybe a possible merger opportunity with one nation,nats and libs and Hansen is going out soon aka retire me thinks.
Welp, I think that’s Ley done.
She’ll probably be gone by January.
pp
Is Uncle Phil still calling her Aunty Pauline?
nadia88 @ #35 Sunday, November 2nd, 2025 – 9:06 pm
That makes me think, roughly how does the Queensland LNP go between the Federal Liberals and Nationals? I’m guessing 60-40 between Liberals and Nationals, although it could be as much as 70-30 between the L-NP’s.
The QLD LNP and the Nats have more seats than the Liberals do. Luckily they are a rabble and can’t count.
Rex:
Never going to happen. There are too many in caucus and especially the party membership who want to go the other direction instead.
The best they can do is *pretend* to reach out to teal supporters, and its clear there is very little appetite in the party to even do that.
Mavis at 8:51 pm
It’s worth looking back at the sorts of people Menzies had in his party room from 1946 to 1949. They included three former PMs (Hughes, Fadden, Page); two future PMs (Holt, McEwen); and a future President of the International Court of Justice (Spender).
And now people are talking about Hastie, Taylor and Tehan. Not exactly first eleven quality.
Hastie, Taylor and Tehan not even shield standard when test players available.
I think One Nation’s vote is inflated. It was up in the polls in the lead-up to the last election, but only recorded a PV of 6.40%, with a relatively small 1.44% swing. There would be a number of dissatisfied Liberals in tonight’s Newspoll, giving One Nation a PV of 15%, but many of whom would, I think, change back to the Coalition once they got into a polling booth. Still, some of them probably think Farage is the Messiah, and depending on one’s politics, that’s a worry.
I could see the government cleaning up in a double-dissolution held on the right kind of legislation if it were held in , say, a year or something.
Any earlier than that, however, and I think they would be punished for taking the country back to the polls too soon. Probably not to the extent that their majority would be at threat (though stranger things have happened), but enough to put the government in a significantly weaker position than they are in now.
Most likely though, I think the government will see out their full term.
The biggest problem the libs have and it’s always been the same. All they do is tear the Government apart day in day out, you would have thought after
the last election they would have changed direction. People are sick to death of them clinging to Sky news to get their lies and innuendos out there.
They will be in the wilderness for a long time with this attitude of self first, self second, any left over they’ll have that too.
“Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:24 pm
Ley’s Libs need to turn teal”
____
One may as well expect the sun to rise in the west and set in the east.
The average age of Liberal Party Branch members is 72. It’s mainly a white and patriarchal outfit that has self radicalised on a diet of Skynoos and Facebook.
They have forgotten who the marks of the Menzies-Casey-Barwick marketing scam are; They have lost the wealthy inner-urban heartland seats; they have lost the middle ring suburban seats that formed the spine of both the Menzies and Howard hegemonies; and they haven’t picked up any where near enough outer rim seats in the major cities to compensate, and there just isn’t enough seats in rural and regional Australia to form a pathway back to government unless Labor royally fucks up or – after 5 or so terms – becomes so tired that the current government needs euthanising.
In short, the centre right in this country appear to be faaarked for all money.
The worst day in Government is better than the best day in opposition.
“And now people are talking about Hastie, Taylor and Tehan. Not exactly first eleven quality.”
_____
It’s a bit like the depressing debate over who out of Bancroft, Renshaw or Harris should open for Australia in the first ashes test; with wild cards like Mitch Marsh, Marnus or Cam Green being thrown into the mix like drafting Jacinta or even Barnaby into become leader of the opposition!