12:29pm Plaid Cymru GAINS Caerphilly from Labour, defeating Reform by 11.4 points, with Labour a dismal third and the Tories getting only 2%.
11:18am Friday The BBC is reporting that it’ll be close between Reform and Plaid. Turnout was 50.4% at this by-election. There’s never been a Welsh parliamentary election with a turnout over 50%. A result is “possible” around 12pm AEDT.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a Welsh parliamentary by-election in Caerphilly. Wales and Scotland use proportional representation methods but with single-member electorates. When an MP for a single-member electorate resigns or dies, a by-election occurs.
At the 2021 Welsh election, Labour won Caerphilly with 46.0%, followed by the centre-left Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru with 28.4% and the Conservatives with 17.3%. The far-right Reform came sixth with just 1.7%. The 2021 Welsh and Scottish elections were held concurrently with English local elections in which the Conservatives under Boris Johnson easily defeated Labour.
The only poll for this by-election is a Survation poll that has Reform leading Plaid by 42-38 with just 12% for Labour and 4% for the Conservatives. If the result replicates that poll, Labour would finish a distant third in a seat they won by almost 18 points in a poor election for them, while Reform’s vote would be up 40 points.
Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. The next election is in May 2026 using 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates. This reform will scrap the single-member electorates, so there won’t be by-elections.
In the Election Maps UK Welsh poll aggregate, Reform leads with 29.3%, followed by Plaid at 26.5%, Labour at 18.5% and the Conservatives at 11.0%. It’s a contest between Reform and Plaid for the most seats, with the once dominant Labour in third. Scottish parliamentary elections will also occur in May 2026. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011. Polls suggest they will again be the largest party, but fall well short of a majority, with Reform possibly the largest non-SNP party.
On Saturday I will write about the UK deputy Labour leadership election, the Irish presidential election and the Argentine midterm elections. UK and Irish results should start reporting on Saturday night AEDT, with Argentina on Monday morning. The Argentine midterms will be the first national elections since Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023.
Past electoral events: Moldova, Czech Republic and Japan
Moldova uses national PR to elect its 101 MPs with a 5% threshold. At the September 28 election, the governing pro-European PAS won 55 seats (down eight since 2021 but above the 51 needed for a majority), the pro-Russian BEP 26 (down six), the centre-left pro-European Alternative eight (new), the left-wing populist RN six (new) and the right-wing PPDA six (new).
The 200 Czech MPs are elected by regional PR with a 5% national threshold. At the October 3-4 election, the right-wing populist ANO won 80 seats (up eight since 2021), the conservative SPOLU 52 (down 19), the liberal STAN 22 (down 11), the left-wing Pirates 18 (up 14), the far-right SPD 15 (down five) and the right-wing Motorists 13 (new). ANO will be able to form a government with both SPD and Motorists. The previous government was a coalition of SPOLU, STAN and Pirates.
Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has held government almost continuously since 1955. On October 4, Margaret Thatcher admirer Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader, replacing Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after the LDP and their Komeito allies combined lost their majorities in both lower and upper house elections in the last year.
After Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, Komeito ditched its coalition with the LDP. However, the LDP formed a coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party. On Tuesday, Takaichi defeated the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party’s leader by 237 votes to 149 in the lower house to become Japan’s first female PM.
If Denmark and Slovenia can be viable independent countries, especially within the EU, it seems to me that Scotland and Wales, comparable in population and size of economy to Denmark and Slovenia respectively, could be, provided that they aren’t sanctioned or otherwise squeezed by the much bigger rump UK. I don’t have any opinion on whether they should be – that should be up to the locals.
Polls closed in Ireland (10pm) local time and counting will start at 9 am Saturday (7pm Sydney).
The turnout has been close to a record low (30-40%) so first preferences should be counted fairly quickly. Whether the preferences of Jim Gavin, the third candidate who withdrew but stayed on the ballot, play a role remains to be seen.
Thanks OC. I thought they would begin the count straightaway, but I see we’ll be back here at 7PM
Thks for clarification.
This article gives a slight indication of turnout, if you scroll down to the “Turnout continues to climb” section.
Link: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-41729844.html
mj says:
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 1:53 am
Without really knowing anything about the by-election it seems that the left wing/centrist vote has tactically coalesced around Plaid Cymru in a first past the post system. This type of voter behaviour is what may keep Reform out.
Situations like this make me thankful we have both preferential and compulsory voting.
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I think it’s known as “tactical voting”. Interesting phenomenom because it appears voters seem to know who would be the best candidate to park their vote with, in order to knock out the candidate they don’t want.
I’m guessing that if Wales had run this election on FPV, Labour preferences would’ve elected Plaid Cyrmu at the end.
I just checked Nadia – 6 times since 1937 the election has been cancelled due to an unopposed candidate and the last election in 2018 had the lowest turnout at 43%. I don’t think the presidency excites the Irish that much, despite the amount of blood spilt to create the position.
Humphries is a presbyterian raised in a pocket of Monaghan that has a Protestant majority- apparently the turnout there is in the 70s
BTSays says:
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 2:28 am
.. “Politics is nothing like as black and white as it appears on forums like this. ”
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Very true BT Says. I usually judge things by the available polling, but another truism I am starting to follow is that people tell pollsters one thing, but in the privacy of the ballot box they do another.
Good to see you back on the site too. I think you’ve previously mentioned you are based in the U.K., so thanks for dropping by from time to time. There are several of us who are following the U.K. polls atm, especially in the lead up to the Council elections.
I get most of my UK polling stuff from this guy, but he doesn’t generally do opinion pieces.
Link: https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/
Today the other thing I learnt is that the turnout can be counted progressively because every elector has an allocated polling booth at which they can vote
A restriction that doesn’t help how the turnout.
Yes, probably doesn’t excite that much because it’s more of a figurehead position, but it’s still important who is the final arbiter on political issues. I just did a bit of research on the candidates. Connolly seems to have political views which align closely to Jeremy Corbyn. I didn’t think he’d be particularly popular in Ireland.
Journo’s seem to think it will top 40%, but won’t get to 43.9%.
We’ll see I suppose in 10 hrs or so.
Kirsdarke or HH – if you drop by this thread, “Mark Pack” above at 10.13 am has dropped two new U.K. Polls;
Techne & Find Out Now.
Yes she has been described as far left. I think that’s a bit OTT but Corbynesque is probably right.
The president isn’t even much of a final arbiter. Under the constitution they must obey the Taoiseach except in 3 circumstances – which reflect the Byzantine thinking of the constitution’s author, De Valera.
1. If the Taoiseach loses the confidence of the Dáil, the President can refuse a request for a dissolution and ask the Dáil to try to elect another Taoiseach. This has never happened but the one time in 1982 when it looked like happening it ended in farce when a mistranslation was found between the official Irish version of the constitution and the English version
2. If the president believes an act, passed by parliament, may offend the constitution, they may refuse to sign, consult the Council of State and send the bill to the Supreme Court for adjudication. This has happened a dozen times and is quite effective but led to the end of the presidency of Cearbhall Ó Dálaigh when he sent a bill increasing security during the troubles to the courts. The Minister for Defence possibly called him a Feckin Disgrace and when he demanded an apology the government said wtte “we were thinking the same thing”
3. Through a very complex mechanism a majority of the Senate and a third of the Dáil can petition the president to refuse to sign a bill until it goes to a referendum. The president doesn’t have to comply but must consult the Council of State. As the government has a virtually built in majority in the senate this has never happened and most likely never will
Thanks OC for clarification, and also above on the year of creation in 1937. That’s fairly tight circumstances for which the President can go out on his/her own. Probably it’s for the best to stop a President going off on a “frolic”.
New thread for international electoral events.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/10/25/uk-irish-and-argentine-electoral-events-live/
https://share.google/images/p9VTNfLgPnApQHozB