12:29pm Plaid Cymru GAINS Caerphilly from Labour, defeating Reform by 11.4 points, with Labour a dismal third and the Tories getting only 2%.
11:18am Friday The BBC is reporting that it’ll be close between Reform and Plaid. Turnout was 50.4% at this by-election. There’s never been a Welsh parliamentary election with a turnout over 50%. A result is “possible” around 12pm AEDT.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a Welsh parliamentary by-election in Caerphilly. Wales and Scotland use proportional representation methods but with single-member electorates. When an MP for a single-member electorate resigns or dies, a by-election occurs.
At the 2021 Welsh election, Labour won Caerphilly with 46.0%, followed by the centre-left Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru with 28.4% and the Conservatives with 17.3%. The far-right Reform came sixth with just 1.7%. The 2021 Welsh and Scottish elections were held concurrently with English local elections in which the Conservatives under Boris Johnson easily defeated Labour.
The only poll for this by-election is a Survation poll that has Reform leading Plaid by 42-38 with just 12% for Labour and 4% for the Conservatives. If the result replicates that poll, Labour would finish a distant third in a seat they won by almost 18 points in a poor election for them, while Reform’s vote would be up 40 points.
Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. The next election is in May 2026 using 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates. This reform will scrap the single-member electorates, so there won’t be by-elections.
In the Election Maps UK Welsh poll aggregate, Reform leads with 29.3%, followed by Plaid at 26.5%, Labour at 18.5% and the Conservatives at 11.0%. It’s a contest between Reform and Plaid for the most seats, with the once dominant Labour in third. Scottish parliamentary elections will also occur in May 2026. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011. Polls suggest they will again be the largest party, but fall well short of a majority, with Reform possibly the largest non-SNP party.
On Saturday I will write about the UK deputy Labour leadership election, the Irish presidential election and the Argentine midterm elections. UK and Irish results should start reporting on Saturday night AEDT, with Argentina on Monday morning. The Argentine midterms will be the first national elections since Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023.
Past electoral events: Moldova, Czech Republic and Japan
Moldova uses national PR to elect its 101 MPs with a 5% threshold. At the September 28 election, the governing pro-European PAS won 55 seats (down eight since 2021 but above the 51 needed for a majority), the pro-Russian BEP 26 (down six), the centre-left pro-European Alternative eight (new), the left-wing populist RN six (new) and the right-wing PPDA six (new).
The 200 Czech MPs are elected by regional PR with a 5% national threshold. At the October 3-4 election, the right-wing populist ANO won 80 seats (up eight since 2021), the conservative SPOLU 52 (down 19), the liberal STAN 22 (down 11), the left-wing Pirates 18 (up 14), the far-right SPD 15 (down five) and the right-wing Motorists 13 (new). ANO will be able to form a government with both SPD and Motorists. The previous government was a coalition of SPOLU, STAN and Pirates.
Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has held government almost continuously since 1955. On October 4, Margaret Thatcher admirer Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader, replacing Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after the LDP and their Komeito allies combined lost their majorities in both lower and upper house elections in the last year.
After Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, Komeito ditched its coalition with the LDP. However, the LDP formed a coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party. On Tuesday, Takaichi defeated the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party’s leader by 237 votes to 149 in the lower house to become Japan’s first female PM.
Takaichi is a far-right, war crime denying psycho who will make the Japanese economic collapse even worse with her scapegoating of foreigners and money printing that is skyrocketing inflation before they even print it. Her plans include making it even easier for the companies to increase the already insane overtime demands on their staff. 12 and 14 hour days are on the menu, because forcing the locals to do that much work means there’s less demand for evil gaijin, in the insane logic of the far-right.
As usual, there is a touch of irony in a far-right leader. Pushing blood & soil children for the fatherland future soldiers for the war against China, women need to stay in the kitchen etc.. lead by a woman with no biological children herself.
レタス タカイチ
Thanks for posting the thread.
There’s also the Dutch election coming up next week. I have no idea how that’s going to go, Opinion polling for that has the parties all over the place, it doesn’t seem likely they’ll be able to form a stable government.
I think Reform may pick up this seat, only on the basis that the “left” are splitting their votes.
Ranked choice voting may see the “left” be able to pool their votes, but with FPTP it splits the left vote vote into pieces.
Notably, the Greens are polling well in the U.K. which may detract from Labour and possibly, Plaid Cymru, as well.
Conservatives are barely registering a pulse.
I think this might be a Reform pick up.
People worldwide are looking for steadiness and coherence. If mainstream parties have no plan to deliver it voters will follow snake oil salesmen.
Either preferential or proportional voting is well overdue in many systems.
FPTP is just nonsense. It produces terrible results.
Mabwm @ #5 Thursday, October 23rd, 2025 – 11:25 pm
That is true. Although in this unique moment in UK elections, it might actually be a time when Labour might be powerless to enforce change of it even if they chose to.
The Reform+Conservative vote is close to 50% already, while Labour-Greens-Corbyn is more like 35%, and the remainder is the Lib Dems, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Independents.
They could use their numbers to bring in Australian style compulsory preferential voting, but as things are now, that’d be swiftly revoked and be brought back to FPTP for another 15 years of Reform-Tory Rule.
I think UK Labour’s top priority at the moment is to become electable again. Paddington Starmer doesn’t seem to be able to achieve that on year 2 of his PM’ship.
First past the post is going to lead to a gigantic Reform majority when they get a winning 35% of the vote in 450 electorates as the other parties split 65% of it and all end up between 10% to 25%.
Ghost Of Whitlam @ #7 Friday, October 24th, 2025 – 12:00 am
When you put it like that, yeah, I think it’d be better if Labour does use its majority to abolish FPTP voting and turn it to Australian style Full Preferential Voting.
Not doing so would be capitulating in advance. I mean, they’re on track to lose over 300 seats as it is, might as well go down fighting with what they have and make a stand and not go down as the weak pissants they appear to be at the moment.
Apparently Labour sources are conceeding defeat, with the BBC quoting;
“One Labour source described the expected defeat in Caerphilly as a “defeat for Starmerism, not for first minister Eluned Morgan.”
Also Plaid sources indicate the result will be very close.
It would get through the Commons but not the Lords where the Salisbury Convention would apply as such a change wasn’t in the 2024 Labour Manifesto and it would more than likely be voted down.
Labour isn’t even the largest party in the Lords. Even if you add the Lib Dems to the Labour group the Tories still have more seats (even if it’s just by one at the moment).
Neil Kinnock said Starmer had months not years to turn it around last week.
Not too sure if Parliament can actually legislate FPV.
They may have to have a new referendum to override the 2011 referendum result.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum
Good to see you back again Lars.
Yes a couple of us are referring to Starmer as Paddington Bear, waddling around seemingly oblivious to reality. His gov’t is sitting on around the minus 55 mark. Not as bad as Macron, but pretty bad for a newly elected gov’t.
I think crunch time may be the local gov’t elections in May, however there have already been reports that these may be adjourned.
Link: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/council-elections-delay-voters-reform-b07lsv7tr
Plaid Cymru candidate reportedly feeling very confident of a victory.
BBC
How common is it for turnout to go up at a by-election in the UK? I’d have thought it’s very unusual. The parties have clearly been campaigning hard (and people on both sides clearly see the stakes are high).
BBC is reporting a turnout, so far, of 50.43%
With the combo of INTENSE PC campaigning and tactical voting … wouldn’t be shocked if they win it comparatively comfortably.
Plaid Cyrmu win ! Well done.
Plaid wins by over 3800 votes.
Thank the heavens.
nadia88 says:
Friday, October 24, 2025 at 9:45 am
Not too sure if Parliament can actually legislate FPV.
They may have to have a new referendum to override the 2011 referendum result.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum
*******************
Parliament can legislate on anything it likes.
One Parliament cannot bind a future one. It’s why the 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act could be repealed in 2022
Holding the 2011 referendum was agreed as part of the Lib Dem’s entering into coalition with the Tories .
The Tories would never have legislated to introduce any other electoral system to replace FPTP via a Bill so a referendum was a second best chance for the Lib Dem’s to try to achieve electoral reform.
Irish Presidential election today also. Catherine Connolly likely to win in a landslide over Heather Humphries.
2% for the Tories. Barely registering a pulse anymore.
The Labor figure is similar to the published poll quoted in the intro. I suppose the Tory vote was too.
The polling overestimated the Reform vote, underestimated the Plaid vote.
Anyway, polling is but a guide. The real numbers are when we get a election.
Thanks for coverage AB.
Result
Steve Aicheler – Welsh Liberal Democrats – 497
Anthony Cook – Gwlad – 117
Gareth Hughes – Green Party – 516
Gareth Potter – Welsh Conservatives – 690
Llyr Powell – Reform UK – 12,113
Roger Quilliam – UKIP – 79
Richard Tunnicliffe – Welsh Labour – 3,713
Lindsay Whittle – Plaid Cymru – 15,961
A bad night for Labour but also one for Reform who expected to win.
Perhaps some of the bad publicity emerging from various Reform run English councils reached across the border and voters decided that’s not what they wanted.
Plaid wins the Caerphilly by election in historic result – live updates
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/live-caerphilly-election-updates-votes-32735870
https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk/post/3m3vpbzb7zk2g
Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk
Caerphilly Senedd By-Election Result:
PLC: 47.4% (+19.0)
REF: 36.0% (+34.2)
LAB: 11.0% (-34.9)
CON: 2.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 1.5% (New)
LDM: 1.5% (-1.2)
GWL: 0.3% (New)
UKIP: 0.2% (New)
Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2021.
ChrisC says:
Friday, October 24, 2025 at 12:31 pm
nadia88 says:
Friday, October 24, 2025 at 9:45 am
Not too sure if Parliament can actually legislate FPV.
They may have to have a new referendum to override the 2011 referendum result.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum
*******************
Parliament can legislate on anything it likes.
One Parliament cannot bind a future one. It’s why the 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act could be repealed in 2022
Holding the 2011 referendum was agreed as part of the Lib Dem’s entering into coalition with the Tories .
The Tories would never have legislated to introduce any other electoral system to replace FPTP via a Bill so a referendum was a second best chance for the Lib Dem’s to try to achieve electoral reform.
==================
Ok, I understood referendums couldn’t be overriden by legislation. Plebiscite’s can but I thought a new referendum would be required in the U.K., to undo the previous referendum. Similar to “brexit”. I think it would be very difficult for a future gov’t to say, bugger the brexit result, we’re rejoining Europe.
Stand corrected of course & I may be doing a wrong comparison with Oz.
Some comments on Bluesky by Luke Tryl, Director of polling company More In Common.
https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m3vpjnp7qc2z
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
So will this be the case in more seats and more importantly whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically.
For Reform this places a greater premium on growing their support pool and reaching more “soft Reform voters, turning out a highly motivated base clearly works in fragmented local council elections but isn’t alone enough in the face of tactical voting.
Still other way of looking at it is that Labour in Wales is being monstered by a similar pincer movement to what is crushing the Tories in the south east. In this case Plaid-Reform in latter Reform-Lib Dem.
On the “big two” parties – combined Tory/Lab vote in 2021 63% in Caerphilly, Today 13%(!) We certainly aren’t in Kansas anymore.
Obviously tactical voting won’t be as significant in next years Senedd elections as they move to list PR. Is more likely in FPTP seats and across more of Britain the bigger question on tactical voting, if Polanski surge continues is going to be Green voters who might be less willing
Flawless says:
Friday, October 24, 2025 at 12:32 pm
Irish Presidential election today also. Catherine Connolly likely to win in a landslide over Heather Humphries.
============
Which one is “left’ and which one is “right”?
Centre-Right candidate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heather_Humphreys
Unity Left candidate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Connolly
Thanks Leroy.
I’ve just checked the polls there.
Connolly polling in the 40’s, and Humprey’s in the mid 20’s.
Looks like polling closes at 7AM PB time Sat (10pm Dublin time Fri).
Looks like it wasn’t a Reform gain, after all, nadia88.
The UK does not have a written constitution- meaning parliament, including the royal assent, can do whatever it likes.
The interesting question is if the King could refuse a bill abolishing the monarchy. It certainly didn’t matter in 1649.
Nadia88
Connolly’s victory will be interesting as she is a unity candidate of the left including, for the first time, Sinn Féin.
At present, the only way the right wing duopoly that has ruled Ireland since 1922 can be overturned is for the parties of the left to combine and Sinn Féin must take the lead as by far the biggest party. Obviously this has difficulties but the current exercise shows it can work.
I knew Plaid would win. I had a gut bad feeling about it.
Welsh Labour cannot call themselves a unionist party if they prop up a Plaid government next year. If I were leading Welsh Labour, I would “tolerate” a Reform-Conservative minority coalition, because the alternative is a separatist government who will screw up the country, like the SNP has done to Scotland and has never lost power since gaining it.
Interesting to see that a Centre-left candidate won. While Labour did miserably, the combined left + centre vote (counting Liberal Democrat as Centre) was 61.4%. The voters of Caerphilly deserted Labor but they’re not ready to embrace the Far Right.
I think Marina Hyde captured the mood best, not just in the UK but across much of the developed world: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/21/britain-nigel-farage-reform-council-voters
Well, glad to see Plaid Cymru win the seat and not Reform at least.
Given my part-Welsh ancestry, I’d rather Wales be independent than shackled to a fascist England under Farage.
It’s a very small data point, and caution should be applied to extrapolating this result onto a broader canvas, but it does appear that there may be significant resistance to the idea of Farage and Reform taking power. Reform has certainly done much less well in this by-election than many thought they would, and that is in line with far Right contenders doing worse in actual voting than than they often do in opinion polls.
Reform is clearly ahead in published opinion polls in the UK right now, (though not by much – it seems to be Reform around 30%, Labour about 23%, Tories in the high teens and the LDP in the low teens), but it remains to be seen whether these numbers would be replicated in a General Election (which of course is still as much as four years away). This by-election result suggests that’s no sure thing.
We see this often with One Nation – often touted as one of the the brink of a big vote share, only to come in at less than that. It seems that the far Right, while it obviously has done appeal to a significant minority, also has a hard ceiling of support.
Silly thing, but I’ve been thinking about this little sign from The Goodies’ episode about Wales.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Friday, October 24, 2025 at 12:00 am
“First past the post is going to lead to a gigantic Reform majority when they get a winning 35% of the vote in 450 electorates as the other parties split 65% of it and all end up between 10% to 25%.”
Not necessarily. FPTP is a crap system but it does lead to tactical voting.
If the Tories vote is being cannibalized by Reform and Labour is on the nose, recent council by-elections indicate that the ‘left of centre’ vote can get the Greens, LibDems or PC (or others) up as people vote to keep the ignorants out.
“Not necessarily. FPTP is a crap system but it does lead to tactical voting.”
Greens UK will reject tactical voting as their goal is to kill Labour just like Reform is now killing the Tories.
Q: How do you vote in Wales?
A: Caerphilly.
Wales can’t survive without England and even most Welsh realise this. just like Scotland. And just like Quebec with Canada.
I don’t “understand” these separatist movements. Most people do not understand the economic consequences if they got in, No economist (you name me one) that supports any of these 3 countries to go Independent.
Heck I’ll even add Catalonia into this mix, they would not survive being independent. History says we are all stronger together.
Daniel T @ #42 Friday, October 24th, 2025 – 8:44 pm
There comes a point where colonialism becomes intolerable, just like when the abused can no longer tolerate what their abusers do to them.
At the moment is seems to be 50/50 in terms of independence movements, but at the moment the people of Wales and Scotland see Farage Fascism laughing in the distance in 2029, eager to do what them what Donald Trump did to E. Jean Carroll. And a lot of them don’t want that.
“. . .followed by the centre-left Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru with 28.4%”
Far left or simply ‘left-wing’ nationalists if you must, but nowhere near the centre, especially these days. Equivalent to Welsh Labour and slightly to the left of UK Labour as a whole, and not far behind the Greens and ‘Your’ Party.
Liberal Democrats are the only arguably ‘centre-left’ party in the UK of any standing. And even with them, in reality they are chameleons who are whatever they want to be to win wherever they are standing. Though their parliamentary seats are nearly all, ironically, in Centre or Right-of-centre populaces – in rich suburbs or well-heeled rural / farming areas. Working-class voters they have not!
The idea a modern nation like Wales or Scotland couldn’t “survive” without an imperial overlord is nonsense. It won’t be easy but to call it impossible is wrong.
Especially if the alternative is dealing with PM Farage and his DOGE squad who gleefully dismantle what’s left of the public services in the countries that aren’t England.
It’s pretty clearly that old structures and ideas are dying very fast. Labour on 11% and Tories on 2% in Caerphilly sounds like absurd fiction but it makes sense given they are unresponsive to a once in a century societal shift. Labor in Australia in contrast has sort of quietly embraced this change.
I’m of primarily Scottish ancestry and mostly have or have had relatives with real jobs like engineers, wharfies and public servants and so my family has never tolerated bullshit or airs. I just want things to work – perhaps Australians generally think the same way given we are a nation of migrants who have left their homelands for whatever reason to go very far away.
Without really knowing anything about the by-election it seems that the left wing/centrist vote has tactically coalesced around Plaid Cymru in a first past the post system. This type of voter behaviour is what may keep Reform out.
Situations like this make me thankful we have both preferential and compulsory voting.
A lot of commentators are overlooking that Plaid were a strong, even if distant, 2nd place at the 2021 Senedd election with 28%.
Labour’s vote loss of 36% has gone roughly 50-50 to Reform / PC.
Conservative – who only had 17% in 2021 (there’s a reason Caerphilly has been Labour forever even when other parts of Wales have not), which was a very respectable year for them electorally in general – had a loss of 15% which I suggest would have broken about 2:1 Reform-PC.
I doubt more than that of the 2021 Conservative voters went Reform. The reason that that doesn’t equate to quite enough votes for Reform and to too many for PC, would be because:
A. Limited numbers of PC 2021 voters would also have gone Reform this time, Reform basically barely existed last time and they take from all parties to at least a small degree when polling this high.
B. Reform in particular attract typical non-voters. *
* It’s absolutely extraordinary for the UK, that the turnout in a by-election exceeded the previous election turnout, though regional elections like this one do start from a lower base turnout than national (i.e. UK) wide elections in the first place so there’s more room to grow. Even so.
Reform’s candidate seemed decent and safe enough, even if not immensely inspiring.
But it looks like PC’s candidate was a very well-known candidate who had stood in elections in Caerphilly forever, and they were wise to select him again – seems to have been a ‘spot on’ choice for them.
And there’s no doubt that that poll published showing it to be a 2-horse race with Labour nowhere in sight, played straight into PC’s hands in terms of tactical voting.
Who knows, some voters may have only been voting Reform to get Labour out, and switched to PC as a 1st preference when they realised they could win? Politics is nothing like as black and white as it appears on forums like this.
I don’t “understand” these separatist movements.
Well, the UK did, just, admittedly, vote for Brexit. So, there’s that.