A few things to report from the Sunshine State:
• The Brisbane Times has a result from the Queensland components of the last two monthly national Resolve Strategic polls, with a sample of 868. This has statewide primary votes of LNP 33%, down one from the July-August period; Labor steady at 32%; Greens steady at 10%; and One Nation up one to 9%. This compares with election results of LNP 41.5%, Labor 32.6%, Greens 9.9% and One Nation 8.0%, and would pan out to around 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor with typical preference flows, compared with 53.8-46.2 to the LNP at the election (though that game may change somewhat if the government abolishes compulsory preferential voting as promised). David Crisafulli scores a net likeability rating of plus 17, down three from the previous survey period, while Steven Miles is at minus two, down one. Crisafulli holds a 39-22 lead as preferred premier, out from 40-25.
• The Courier-Mail reports a RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll targeting only south-east Queensland credits Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, compared with what RedBridge calculates as a result of 50.3-49.7 in favour of the LNP across the corresponding area at the election held a year ago. A graphic in the print edition says the primary votes are 35% each for the LNP and Labor, 13% for the Greens and 11% for One Nation, though the accompanying report says the LNP are actually on 36%. I believe I can infer the corresponding results from the election were LNP 40.4%, Labor 35.9%, Greens 12.1% and One Nation 6.1%. The sample was 1013, but the only indication of the field work period is that it was before the government’s “energy road map” was unveiled last week.
• There is still no date for the by-election for the North Queensland seat of Hinchinbrook, which will be held due to Katter Australian Party member Nick Dametto’s plan to run for the mayor of Townsville. The LNP has confirmed a candidate in Wayde Chiesa, former regional chief executive of Regional Development Australia, described today by The Australian as the “hand-picked” candidate of David Crisafulli. The report also relates Crisafulli appointed Chiesa chief financial officer for a training firm of which he was sole director from December 2015 to April 2016, which collapsed two months after Crisafulli’s departure owing creditors $3 million. Dametto’s successor as KAP candidate will be former Townsville deputy mayor Mark Molachino, whom the LNP has been keen to point out was an ALP member from 2017 to 2024 – which Rob Katter reckons to be sour grapes because Molachino allegedly rejected the LNP’s own overtures. Labor’s candidate remains to be announced, but Steven Miles confirmed last week there would be one.
• A redistribution to update electoral boundaries that have been in place at the 2017, 2020 and 2024 elections is under way, but all the Redistribution Commission will give away about the publication of proposed boundaries is that it will be “early 2026”. The submissions have been published: as well as advocating a return to purely geographic seat names, the LNP is calling for the abolition of the rural seat of Hill, held for Katter’s Australian Party by Shane Knuth, and the inner urban seat of Toohey, held for Labor by Peter Russo, to accommodate new seats in Ipswich and Caboolture. The Greens concur on the latter point, but want the scrapped seats to be Toohey’s southern neighbour Stretton, held for Labor by James Martin, and the Townsville seat of Thuringowa, held for the LNP by Natalie Marr. Labor agrees on the need for a new seat in Caboolture but makes no suggestion as to what should be abolished.
It always seems to happen this way. With the help of the conservative media ecosphere, the LNP or Coalition are great at tearing down Labor governments. However, once they are elected and the hard work begins of governing, they flounder.
It’s the Tony Abbott model writ large.
Yes Cat – I haven’t written off the Coalition in Victoria completely but I have the feeling that if they win they could well end up as another one-term conservative government like they were in 2010-2014, and also the Queensland conservatives 1996-1998 and 2012-2015.
In 2010 the Coalition in Victoria won narrowly but then found that you actually need ideas and policies to run a state.
I do enjoy a bit of ‘Bring Back Abbott’ cheerleading, but I have this odd feeling he will be running in 2029 for a UK Commons seat for either the Tories or maybe even Reform.
In the absence of the “crime wave” that the RW press complained about during Labor’s term in office, I see that the Crisafulli Nationals are completely unable to shift the dial on Queensland’s economy.
The substantial renewable energy projects the Nationals have cancelled (one a $2 billion windfarm) have reduced the amount of work in regional Qld. Genius.
Not relevant to qld but I get the sense if Abbott wants to be UK PM it will be for the Tories not reform. I think he wants to connect with the olde worlde stuff not a bunch of nobodies who got elected for a cult
I agree the right wing media here are not good for the lnp and convince them that governing or even getting elected is easier than it is becoz only people who they agree with are apparently voting
The LNP (and Libs / Nats) and the MSM have done such a good job in running down any progressive government’s actions (infrastructure programs / social initiatives etc.) is that the LNP have been caught in the crossfire. They have engendered anti-government sentiment to the point that rather than running down the ALP they have made the people hate ‘government’ per se.
A stupid policy from the outset. Even our shittier governments are by and large still relatively competent and largely free of wholesale corruption.
Albo continues to float above the fray by simply being non-threatening and respectful.
The art of getting elected is very different to the art of governing. Very few manage to walk and talk at the same time.
“Crisafulli government is floundering a year after coming to office”
Gee who would have seen this coming.
You were warned Queensland. You’ve seen it all before.
But nope, you all knew better. Bringing back the wreckers because of the Courier-Mail screaming about Laura Norda and the desperate need to gift the AFL another new stadium for free.
The Crisafulli government is still full of leftovers from the Newman regime. They (including Crisafulli) were facilitators and cheerleaders for the most horrendous and destructive atrocities (and corruption) wrought by the Newman government.
While Crisafulli is a little more adept at managing the public image and presenting himself as a genuine and competent person, the LNP have not changed their spots.
They continue to lie like Trump, break promise after promise and behave badly.
Before the election they promised not to cancel a number of hospital upgrades that were previously approved and funded. After the election they kept their word. They did not cancel them. They just suspended them indefinitely!
They also promised not to interfere with renewable energy projects that had commenced or had been approved. They have withdrawn several approvals, suspended some works and have declined to approve several new projects which meet all the planning criteria.
And the list of lies and broken promises grows daily.
They are continuing to appoint party hacks and vested interests to government bodies hand over fist.
Just last week they appointed senior LNP power broker and former Flinders Shire Mayor, Jane McNamara, as Chair of the Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA).
While she was mayor of Flinders her good friend and CEO was engaging in serious corrupt conduct, much of which was to the benefit of his engineering consultancy company. When the allegations against him were found to be proven he immediately resigned and the government decided not to proceed with prosecutions.
Jane McNamara denied all knowledge of the corruption by her CEO friend. Of course this did not go down well with the voters. She was thrown out at the next election 6 months later.
She immediately took a job working for her corrupt former CEO at his engineering firm.
She has now been appointed Chair of the QRA which oversees $14.2billion in disaster funding and which has given work to the same Engineering Company.
But it is OK, there can be no conflict of interest because she is squeaky clean and resigned from the engineering firm the day before her appointment.
It will be interesting to see if that engineering firm gets more work from the QRA.
The LNP have corruption deeply entrenched in their DNA!
E.G.W
IF conflicts of interest like that are happening in the Qld LNP, plus deliberate destruction of the previous government’s achievements (without anything to replace them), sounds more like Crisafulli is a rerun of Campbell Newman and Tony Abbott rather than John Howard.
If Crisafulli keeps struggling to deliver his (any) agenda, he really has only himself to blame. Albo recently gave Qld a generous lump of Federal financial largesse to help with Olympic infrastructure costs.
Normally the runup to an Olympics is the bit with economic good-times as all the money is spent. Later things get tougher when all the bills have to be paid.
It doesn’t bode well for the Qld economy if they are struggling now.
Liberal strategist Paul Barry has said the consequence of the LNP merged entity is its harder to make inroads in Brisbane. Rather then when Liberals and Nationals are separate parties and Liberals run in city seats.
While the LNP have pointed the finger at the Labor campaign in Brisbane on the abortion issue. This poll suggests this compliant doesn’t necessarily address the symptoms of the problem for the LNP.
The LNP merger is getting mixed reviews. While some suggests it harms the Liberals in city seats being merged with Nationals. Others point to the coalition in WA and SA where the state oppositions has massive problems that some think a merger would be beneficial similar to the blue print in Queensland.
List of electorates outside the allowable 10% variation, as at 30 sep 2025:
Coomera: 37.61%
Logan: 29.45%
Jordan: 21.23%
Murrumba: 18.34%
Caloundra: 17.91%
Bundamba: 17.12%
Hervey Bay: 13.43%
Gympie: 13.14%
Stretton: -13.70%
Toohey: -13.55%
Mundingburra: -12.57%
Oodgeroo: -12.23%
Gaven -11.73%
Gregory* -11.67%
Traeger* -10.18%
* After allowance for ‘ghost’ electors.
The LNP do not need to make inroads in Brisbane. They currently have a comfortable enough majority and a more harmonious party room without too many Brisbane representatives.
The ALP needs to make inroads in the rest of the state.
Socrates says: Monday, October 20, 2025 at 6:20 pm:
“It doesn’t bode well for the Qld economy if they are struggling now.”
QLD has the lowest unemployment rate in Australia (4.2% seasonally adjusted). The Australian rate is 4.5%, Victorias’a is 4.7%.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release
Fargo61 @ #11 Tuesday, October 21st, 2025 – 10:48 am
Yeah, Labor needs Brisbane and the Regional Cities for a majority. Losing those North Queensland seats last year was a big blow for them that’ll probably be a long-term problem.
“The LNP do not need to make inroads in Brisbane. They currently have a comfortable enough majority and a more harmonious party room without too many Brisbane representatives.”
@Fargo61
LNP having a strategy of holding the huge bulk of the inner region seats is a very shaky strategy. If Labor start reclaiming some of the outer surburbs seats then it will put pressure to finding seats elsewhere.
The inner regions have shown in the past if they don’t like what the LNP serving they will have no problem heading back to state Labor heartbeat. I will acknowledge though there does seem to be a city (Labor) vs regions (LNP) divide going on at the moment.
It’s going to be fine for the LNP, As soon as it goes south they’ll just swap QLD to OPV or FPTP and cruise on it for another 3 terms.
Who is going to stop them? The Senate?
Anidav @ #15 Tuesday, October 21st, 2025 – 8:59 pm
Sure, they could do that, but it could backfire on them big time.
I’d imagine if forced into a FPTP system there’d be more Greens voters willing to sacrifice their no.1 Vote tactically for Labor to bring back preferential voting than there would be One Nation voters willing to vote tactically for the LNP.
It’s going to be fine for the LNP, As soon as it goes south they’ll just swap QLD to OPV or FPTP and cruise on it for another 3 terms.
@Anidav
They said they would do that before the One Nation vote was rising. I’m wondering now if they may have second thoughts on doing this.
OPV changes bugger all.
When QLD swings, it *swings*
Anna P got in off 7 seats on OPV.
And FPTP is just never happening.