The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll giving Labor a lead of 54-46, out from 53.5-46.5 at the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 29% (down one), Greens 11% (steady), and a surging One Nation on 14% (up three). The accompanying report reveals One Nation is at 13% among millennials, 15% among Gen-X and 17% among baby boomers – I hope to have more to offer in the way of demographic breakdowns later today.
The poll also finds an 37% for and against the notion that the Coalition should drop its support for net zero; 35% holding that the Albanese government has the right priorities, with 47% disagreeing; and 16% holding that Sussan Ley’s Coalition is ready for government, with 55% disagreeing. It was conducted September 25 to October 7 from a sample of 1997.
UPDATE: Full results here – unfortunately not including any state breakdowns on this occasion, but together with the One Nation age breakdowns cited above, we learn that its support among the youngest cohort (“Gen-Z”, presumably meaning 18-34) is well below the others at 6%.
Hard Being Green @ #438 Sunday, October 12th, 2025 – 10:23 am
I don’t see a reason to allow more snouts in the trough if we don’t get better government as a result.
This is also interesting but I haven’t personally verified every source
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_support_for_Hamas
Iran has backed Hamas (what a shock). Did you know that the US provides military aid to Israel?
Evidence for
They only ever pretended to care about Palestinians so they could secure control over some territory from which they could launch those anti-Israeli attacks.
As Hamas won the last election in 2006 and has been the sole governing party in Gaza since 2007, this seems a far too simple history
You could have saved us a few posts OC
Israel as North Korea – (I think more South Africa) but I will take that.
The difference is that South Africa and North Korea eventually lost their powerful friends and SAf had to come to the table. Israel has always had the US at its back. We may eventually know if Trump has substantially changed this.
Israel government have had massive support destroying Hamas and its sponsor and its other proxies via its population who live under constant threat.
Israeli people locked in and will support Israel finishing the job if Hamas once again break conditions of agreed outcomes as they did earlier this year.
Hamas and its supporters – Gaza residents -paid a very high price for that which was good and should concentrate their minds on delivering on what they promised this time.
Me thinks Hamas like China are not to be appeased but dealt with.
Btw Labor government has sold out to the Singapore gov on Optus, Aussie lives are low in Albanese priorities.
Globalist open border zealots!
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 10:53 am
Israel as North Korea – (I think more South Africa) but I will take that.
The difference is that South Africa and North Korea eventually lost their powerful friends and SAf had to come to the table. Israel has always had the US at its back. We may eventually know if Trump has substantially changed this.
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I said “more like” not “as”. Anyway, North Korea seems to be best buddies again with some powerful friends.
More to the point, Israel has been at the bargaining table a number of times in the last 78 years. There has been outright rejection of a two state solution by the Palestinians twice in that period and actions by both sides that have made the prospect further away than ever.
If Israel is “forced” to the “bargaining table” again, what do you think would be the most likely outcome?
Player Onesays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 9:35 am
…
But that’s not the only issue that needs fixing – as a whole, Australia is massively over-governed, with the three tiers of government simply increasing the opportunity for fraud and corruption.
It is more difficult to say which of the other two tiers (state or local) should be the one to go.
……
– – – – – – – – – – – – –
Porque no los dos? I have from time to time wondered if Australia wouldn’t work better by abolishing both states and local councils and implementing an equivalent of French Départements. 80 – 100 regional entities with a remit for local delivery of national policy – schools, hospitals, roads, justice, sport & rec etc.
I think it would overcome certain issues with the state/council arrangement, although would no doubt create a bunch of new ones in its place. Also not sure of constitutional issues (though it would not necessarily require all existing state-centric framing to be overridden; in some cases that would just an atavism). State of Origin, Sheffield Shield etc need not be harmed.
The French govt may be in dire straits at the moment, but the Départements aren’t the problem. OTOH, France itself has been steadily consolidating more authority since the 1970s at the regional level (a third tier between national and departmental) for things like higher education and public transport….so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
A late good morning all. I join others in saying vale Diane Keaton, one of my favorite actresses. I liked watching her most in the comedies she did in her later career. Her earliest films were before my time.
If Hamas is trying to re-assert control in Gaza, the signs aren’t good for a lasting peace in Palestine. Someone needs to explain to Trump that vacuums are soon filled and that he needs to get peacekeeping boots on the ground ASAP.
On Pakistan and the Taliban, I find it hard to feel sorry for the Pakistani military. You reap what you sow.
collective punishment is “good” and should “concentrate their minds” ok ya bloody ghoul.
On pied piper
“ Oooooh “people who have been to uni”.
Hmmm never have so many come from Uni and achieved so little!”
Is that is the cause of his resentment towards the coherent part of the world? 🙂
So he never got to go to uni? Presumably his school marks weren’t high enough.
Sydney Criminal lawyers write:
Would love to comment on this, but don’t want to be set upon by a group of anonymous Zionists and charged with having openly expressed antisemitism, or hatred towards Jewish people.
Why does anyone respond to the troll?
I skim over every post – it helps that most are unintelligible. The rest are garbage even when they are somewhat intelligible (I sometimes go back to ascertain what some sane poster is responding to, as I did this time).
Jackol,
I should probably have specified a Half Senate Election every 4 years. That should get rid of Populist surges. Now, in trying to finagle it so that it works smoothly we would have a Half Senate election every 2 years. So, a full election of the House and a Half Senate election every 4 years, and a Half Senate election every 2 years. The parties could even renominate any Senators after 2 years that they want to stick around for another 4 if they want to, or turf out any that they haven’t been impressed with after 2 years, via the normal method of party selection. Then the electorate gets to vote on the new list.
Idk, I’m just spitballing here. 🙂
Socratessays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 11:17 am
A late good morning all. I join others in saying vale Diane Keaton, one of my favorite actresses. I liked watching her most in the comedies she did in her later career. Her earliest films were before my time.
_____________________________________
Like everyone else, during COVID we watched a lot of old movies and a film Keaton did in 1987, Baby Boom, was a sweet movie that we really enjoyed. She was attractive, but did not redefine, refine or expand my concept of beauty however.
Bushfire Bill says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 11:22 am
Sydney Criminal lawyers write:
“The idea that regular people in this country who express opposition to the mass slaughter and starvation of Palestinians by the Israeli state, which ultimately seeks to appropriate their land once it is ethnically cleansed, will be set upon by a group of anonymous Zionists and charged with having openly expressed antisemitism, or hatred towards Jewish people, is now commonplace.”
Would love to comment on this, but don’t want to be set upon by a group of anonymous Zionists and charged with having openly expressed antisemitism, or hatred towards Jewish people.
_____________________________________________
I’ll comment. It seems anyone who uses the word “globalist” must be antisemitic according to some here. However, these same people reckon they can use “Zionist” as much as they like and give them themselves a free pass to hate Jews as much as they want.
As for this doctor, blaming Mossad for the antisemitic attacks when there is absolutely no evidence other than sheer blind prejudice and hatred is nothing short of a modern day blood libel. Everyone who has doubted the ASIO assessment has absolutely no alternative evidence – only their hatred of Israel (and the Jewish people who support Israel and the Jewish people who may support Israel if they wear a star of David or a Jewish school uniform).
By the way ECAJ is not anonymous, as Jillian Segal has found to her deep cost. The names of office-holders are widely published. Of course the word “anonymous” helps to create a sense of Jews hidden behind the scenes pulling all the strings.
Anyway, my point, which has been bastardised by the troll who blows his own flute, was that people who have done Political Science at Uni, or Law, or were just generally intelligent enough to get into Uni, are entitled to have their pov taken seriously and not just dismissed out of hand.
Which is not to say that those who haven’t been to Uni aren’t smart enough to be entitled to have their own opinion.
Hmm, TPOF vs BB…… I’m going to support BB here. In honor of Bubsy.
There should be an omnibus referendum to just remove the no longer relevant parts of the constitution (the stuff about setting up the federation doesn’t really need to be there anymore) and entrench a few other powers that the states have collectively handed over to the federal government as well (Corporation law for example). And straighten out some of outdated legal terms to more modern terms.
Iran has backed Hamas (what a shock). Did you know that the US provides military aid to Israel?
Evidence for
They only ever pretended to care about Palestinians so they could secure control over some territory from which they could launch those anti-Israeli attacks.
As Hamas won the last election in 2006 and has been the sole governing party in Gaza since 2007, this seems a far too simple history
==============================================
Some years back there was quite a lot of reporting on what Hezbollah were offering people in various locations. It was clear they were far more than just a terrorist organisation – they were filling a gap, meeting peoples actual, day to day, needs. The same has been said for Hamas to a certain degree but it is arguable their anti Israel and anti PA/Fatah are their driving force and everything else comes second. There was a reason people preferred Hamas in that election – so Hamas was offering something to people that Fatah was not delivering or not able to deliver. It has been said this was largely due to Fatah corruption – less so a vote in favour of Hamas militancy.
The conditions in Gaza and the West Bank have long been unfavourable to good government. Easy to argue that the lack of progress on the two state fix has left these areas ripe for corruption/militancy/ extremism/authoritarianism etc. Which serves a warning that more needs to be done beyond a ceasefire to help encourage long term peace in the region.
TK
The conditions in Gaza and the West Bank have long been unfavourable to good government. Easy to argue that the lack of progress on the two state fix has left these areas ripe for corruption/militancy/ extremism/authoritarianism etc. Which serves a warning that more needs to be done beyond a ceasefire to help encourage long term peace in the region.
______________________________________________
TK. Totally agree. The only prospect of long-term peace is a viable (and I stress that word) two state solution. Anything else is a band-aid (which is better than the last two years, but only a respite).
TPOF
I don’t see a solution – both sides want river to the sea and neither looks like folding.
After the last 2 years, the solution of genocide by either side does not look achievable. If the US abandoned Israel there might be some movement but that is not going to happen.
However, other conflicts that seemed as intractable and lasted as long were eventually solved – Northern Ireland being one. There the solution was obvious 25 years and 3000 deaths before it was implemented.
BSF
Corporations law has always been a Commonwealth constitutional power. S51(xx)
Uni is more about exams than a real test of intelligence. Take law, it’s open book but other degree units run closed book exams.
TPOF – Ok, bad example. But there have been areas that have been handed over to the commonwealth because it just makes sense.
Aviation for example. There was a referendum that was held on that in the 30s which was lost but the states then ended up handing it over anyway.
BSF
Whitlam at one stage suggested a referendum to remove the redundant parts – particularly all the bits that only applied for the first parliament (“Until the parliament provides”).
However, I will vote no if it is suggested that “efflux of time” is removed – one of my favourite expressions
The federal parliament should be larger to better reflect local seats, the AEC is starting to fail it’s own criteria for seats to reflect local communities.
Just saw Ivanka & Jared on the box.. they have to stop seeing plastic surgeon or they will finish up looking like Michael Jackson
A comedian writing a joke in the Melbourne comic.
@Landlord of the Year –
“The federal parliament should be larger to better reflect local seats, the AEC is starting to fail it’s own criteria for seats to reflect local communities.”
Exactly right.
It’s strange that the people here who rant constantly about politicians don’t want to have smaller more local seats where community independents will have a better shot, just out of generalised antipathy to politicians.
The same stupid counter-productive antipathy means it is hard to change from a donation model of political funding to public funding.
Sceptic says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 12:09 pm
Just saw Ivanka & Jared on the box.. they have to stop seeing plastic surgeon or they will finish up looking like Michael Jackson
Just read an interview with a Gen Z musician. He’s leading the charge for the return of body hair. It won’t be long before some ‘Influencer’ comes along and declares plastic surgery and Fillers and Botox are so ‘old-fashioned’. The Kardashians and Javanka will be yesterday’s news then. 😉
Chris Bowen is a ‘climate zealot taking us down a ruinous road’. Lord give me strength.
The only zealot is Toned Abs. Always good with the turn of phrase but woeful as a national leader.
If Abbott (and for that matter Credlin) want to rule the Liberal party so much then why don’t they run for seats instead of whining about everything from the sidelines?
From Kos Samaras 1/2
The Polarised Fringes and the Moderate Middle: What our RedBridge/Accent data reveals about the true beating heart of Australia.
Our recent polling data published for the Financial Review reveals a story about political identity that challenges simplistic narratives about the electorate.
The Polarised Fringes
The data shows stark political sorting at the extremes. Those who identify as politically “left” overwhelmingly back Labor and the Greens, with an 80-20 two-party preferred split favouring Labor. Meanwhile, self-identified “right” voters mirror this polarisation in reverse, delivering a 70-30 split to the Coalition, with significant support flowing to One Nation. This is where the two major parties’ primary vote ebbs and flows – between them and an ideological sister party.
The Moderate Middle
What’s more interesting is the substantial middle ground. Voters who identify as “moderate” or “none of these” make up a significant portion of the electorate, and their voting patterns are far less predictable. Moderates split 56-44 for Labor vs Coalition on two-party preferred, while those rejecting all political labels split nearly evenly at 53-47 in favour of Labor.
This moderate and non-aligned cohort represents the true beating heart of Australian politics, less ideologically committed and a group that rejects that presently finds the Coalition too Right wing.
The Youth Exception
However, there’s a critical caveat: younger Australians are bucking the moderate trend.
The generational breakdown reveals a dramatic leftward skew among Gen Z voters:
•37% back Labor as first preference
•29% support the Greens, an extraordinarily high figure
•Only 16% support the Coalition
•Two-party preferred: 69-31 for Labor
Millennials show a similar but less pronounced pattern (58-42 Labor), while Gen X is essentially tied (51-49), and Baby Boomers actually favour the Coalition (45-55).
Kos Samaras 2/2
What this means
While it’s true that most Australians don’t identify strongly with political extremes, age is the crucial variable. Younger voters aren’t just slightly more progressive, they’re dramatically more left-leaning than any other cohort, with the Greens capturing nearly a third of Gen Z first preferences.
This suggests:
1.The moderate middle exists, but it’s generationally concentrated among older Australians
2.Youth engagement with progressive politics is intense, particularly around climate and social issues that drive Greens support
3.Long-term demographic shifts could fundamentally reshape Australian politics as younger cohorts age into electoral dominance. Millennials have become more conservative as they have aged but that trend tends to be more about moving from the Greens to Labor. This slight move may also be driven by diverse Australians who may have arrived here over the last two decades.
The States proved their worth during the pandemic – borde controls were the right call and let the important parts of the national economy (WA) run during the worst of the crisis.
People significantly understate the NIMBY’ism of local government – tying Federal government to local government essentially ensures things like housing affordability getting worse given the incentives to form anti-development coalitions. We already have a federal cross bench who’s main policy priorities are “transition that affects others; stasis at home”.
Instead, we need more smaller councils but lift planning/roads/garbage/service delivery etc to the state government level.
Local government should be defined by more local and intimate sized communities, but who’s power is limited to lifestyle and cultural activites – organising community events, street markets, street art and other such things.
It would make local government more focused on community building and participation while the state level can focus on efficiency service delivery and economic affairs.
(and perhaps, we should discuss shrinking the scope of federal government?)
Have any of those advocating for an Abbott return said what electorate he should contest?
To paraphrase a wise old timer in an old movie I’ve forgotten the name of, if Tony Abbott is the answer, it must be a really darn fool question.
Tony Abbott was and still is a failure.
If Abbott (and for that matter Credlin) want to rule the Liberal party so much then why don’t they run for seats instead of whining about everything from the sidelines?
@Kirsdarke
Tony Abbott threw away a safe Liberal seat when he outstayed his welcome with voters. Throwing away a safe seat is like crashing a plane. Once you crash it, you won’t be given another chance. It’s why Kristina Keneally won’t be given another seat for Labor.
Confessions @ #488 Sunday, October 12th, 2025 – 12:53 pm
I bet he’d love to boot Julian Leeser out of Berowra or Alex Hawke out of Mitchell.
Other than that, he’d be better off going for a teal or marginal Labor seat. Bradfield, Banks, Mackellar or Hughes would probably be logical targets, assuming he wants to have a seat in Sydney. Most likely case scenario is that he gets humiliatingly defeated, but if he does win then that would be indicative that he’s willing to put skin in the game.
Tony Abbott is on the board of foreign tycoon Murdoch propaganda media unit foxnews, and would likely be ineligible to be a federal politician, due to under foreign influence
Look how quick Abbotts approval went south. V a disliked Shorten.
Abbott: Sacked by the Party and then sacked by the Voters.
Look how quick Abbotts approval went south. V a disliked Shorten.
@Team Katich
It’s funny that after Tony Abbott lost the Prime Minstership he labelled the opposition behaviour as ‘hysterical’. It was, in fact, the opposite. Bill Shorten strategy was to stay out of the crossfire and let Abbott hang himself. Abbott had rammed through so many counter terrorism bills to try and wedge Labor that even his colleagues were getting tired of it by the end.
Funny how Steve Price neglected to mention the “Sir Prince Philip” debacle in his Abbott hagiography which made most of the whole country go “WTF?!”, helped make the Queensland LNP lose the 2015 election as their massive majority evaporated and almost made him lose his leadership to an empty chair.
Abbott is and always has been this weird embarrassing freak and it’s hilarious how he’s trying to make a political comeback.
Who knows if Abbott resigns from the foreign Murdoch propaganda media unit’s board and did try to re-enter politics , His nemesis Malcolm Turnbull may try a return and it would be interesting to see if it would be Abbott vs Turnbull competing against each other for the same seat
It’s a week or so shy of my birthday.
Hopefully the liberals can act on the advice of the Abbott fans.
It would be the best present ever.
The idea of getting Abbott back is typical insider bubble talk, Abbott wouldn’t win any of the teal seats, after all he was the first to lose his seat to one. The Liberals might not want to admit it has to go back to being more feminine and less blokey.
People moving Greens to Labor aren’t becoming “more conservative”, they’re moving to vote for a party of government who are actually doing progressive things unlike the nimby, blocker Greens Political Party.