Federal polls: Essential Research and YouGov (open thread)

Two more pollsters find evidence of a surge to One Nation at the expense of an embattled Coalition.

Two new pollsters have just provided their first federal voting intention numbers since the election, one being Essential Research, which has Labor on 35%, the Coalition on 27% and the Greens on 11%, and goes further than any other pollster yet in having One Nation at 13% – together with an undecided component of 6%, so the numbers for each should be considered slightly higher in practice. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor leading the Coalition 51% to 44%, with the balance undecided. Leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese falling back to where he was pre-election, down five on approval over the past month to 44% and up three on disapproval to 46%, while Sussan Ley is down three on approval to 32% and up four on disapproval to 41%.

The poll also finds a four-point drop since last month in the view that the country is headed in the right direction to 34%, with wrong direction up three to 50%; 53% rating the immigration rate too high, 40% about right and 7% too low; 17% believing Australia should be more like the United States and 58% less; 39% rating the government’s 2035 emissions target too ambitious, 13% not ambitious enough and 48% about right; 34% supportive of Australia’s recognition of Palestine with 30% opposed (both unchanged on a month ago); and negative attitudes across the board to Donald Trump. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1001.

Amir Daftari of YouGov relates via X that the voting intention result from the pollster’s weekly omnibus survey had Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 27%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 12%, with Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred and Anthony Albanese leading Sussan Ley by 50% to 28% on preferred prime minister. Breakdowns by vote at the May election support the contention that the One Nation surge is coming largely at the expense of the Coalition. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1329.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,004 thoughts on “Federal polls: Essential Research and YouGov (open thread)”

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  1. A lot of us said Ley was a Brendan Nelson seat warmer as soon as she got the job. Not really a vicious insight. Her own side saying it just demonstrates how disunited they are.

  2. Bonza @ #940 Sunday, October 5th, 2025 – 2:03 pm

    I don’t get the coalition’s insistence on being anti-renewables to this day. I get that it was worth doing for their donors when they could prevent/delay the transition, but by the time they’re back in power at the federal level the transition will be so advanced, what are they gonna do, destroy operational wind/solar to create demand for coal/nuclear?

    Meanwhile looking at global politics, everything just looks really bad doesn’t it.

    People are still paying them to delay things as much as possible so they can continue to sweat fossil fuel assets. They don’t give a stuff about the medium or long term

  3. Larissa did pretty well on Insiders, including condemning the attack in London

    Made the perfectly sensible point that Palestinians should have a say in what their future should look like

    Strong on the environment, as expected, although not the best look in not being up to date on what’s happening with Robbins Island

    I think she missed an opportunity in not calling out the election result in Tasmania and changes re logging won from the Liberals in the fallout

    A pity the interview didn’t cover cost of living but such is life

    It’s fascinating seeing how well the Greens are doing with younger female voters, just need to expand that to other groups

    Speaking of females, cracking NRLW Grand Final so far

  4. Bonza says Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 3:03 pm

    I don’t get the coalition’s insistence on being anti-renewables to this day. I get that it was worth doing for their donors when they could prevent/delay the transition, but by the time they’re back in power at the federal level the transition will be so advanced, what are they gonna do, destroy operational wind/solar to create demand for coal/nuclear?

    The right rump of the party, and much of their base, populate a SAD information bubble that proclaims climate change to be a hoax, and renewables the work of the devil. Some of the MPs have fully bought into this, others use it for their own political purposes.

  5. C@tmomma says Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 6:57 am

    Well done, Andrew_Earlwood.

    Yes. Well done.

    From someone who struggles to swim a lap of the pool.

    Learn how to do tumble turns. It can quickly take your swimming and fitness to the next level. Also think about joining a masters swimming program.

    Two downsides with swimming: it doesn’t strengthen bones and you tend to want to eat something unhealthy immediately afterwards.

  6. Landlubber
    You are dreaming if you think a Conservative Party made up of One Nation and Antic types will poll 35% to 40%. They should break away from the Liberal Party but they only poll mid to high teens.

  7. Arkysays:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 3:24 pm
    Larissa Waters isn’t helping the Greens unfortunately.

    ___________________

    Its a distraction – going by at least the Guardian feed, the real scandal is her wholly unbelievable ignorance of the “controversy” around northern tasmanian wind farms (i think code for robin island).

    It shows Tony Abbott levels of “no” when it comes to national energy issues, and a lack of care about the actual practical challenges in delivering net zero beyond thr political spin of emission reduction targets.

    At least Dutton stated a comfort for nuclear in his own electorate…

  8. Omar Comin’says:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 3:33 pm
    I wonder if PP got his Cert. IV in cookery or if he only made it to Cert. III level.

    ____________________

    Local or imported, the last thing Australia needs is more cookery.

  9. I enjoy a swim. A lap on the back. A lap face down, overarm. And then repeated. An hour is good, no more than that. I’ve never figured out breast stroke or butterfly. I like the buoyancy and the dreaminess. I’m not a sprinter. And nor am I a distance swimmer. I’m no Neptune. I like it when I climb out, feeling the full effects of gravity, the weight through tiring legs. This cannot work, I’m apt to say. But it does. The ocean summons me too. I like the roll of the swell and the depths.

  10. Bizzcan says:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 4:50 pm
    Omar Comin’says:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 3:33 pm
    I wonder if PP got his Cert. IV in cookery or if he only made it to Cert. III level.

    ____________________

    Local or imported, the last thing Australia needs is more cookery.

    The Piper is instant noodles. No prep required. Cooked and served in a takeaway box. With a throwaway fork. No chopsticks. No chilli. No soy sauce. No napkins. Dribbles on the chin.

  11. lol Bizzcan

    I would’ve liked to give a thoughtful reply… I have thoughts on the subject but they’re a bit jumbled right now due to smoking a huge bowl of legally prescribed medical marijuana, since my partner and son left to go to Sydney for holidays.

    Love your work btw

  12. On Sky Sunday Agenda today front bench Liberal MP Melissa McIntosh says she feels for Andrew Hastie as his only issue was “not being able to voice his opinions on immigration”and that his resignation had no other intent.
    Then goes right ahead to voice her opinions on immigration by accusing migrants of causing high infrastructure costs, hospital overloads, road congestion in Western Sydney and even pot holes in said roads.
    What a useless bunch of idiots.

  13. bcsays:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 4:36 pm
    Two downsides with swimming: it doesn’t strengthen bones and you tend to want to eat something unhealthy immediately afterwards.
    _______________________
    There’s more than that. Especially down at Waurn Ponds.
    Tinea.
    Ear infection
    Gastro.
    The occasional code Brown.

  14. Omar Comin’says:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 5:01 pm
    lol Bizzcan

    I would’ve liked to give a thoughtful reply… I have thoughts on the subject but they’re a bit jumbled right now due to smoking a huge bowl of legally prescribed medical marijuana, since my partner and son left to go to Sydney for holidays.

    Love your work btw

    ____________________

    Thank you,

    Also, legal medical marijuana counts as a postive contribution to GDP growth, so feel free to dwell on that.

  15. Fastwheels says:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 5:02 pm
    On Sky Sunday Agenda today front bench Liberal MP Melissa McIntosh says she feels for Andrew Hastie as his only issue was “not being able to voice his opinions on immigration”and that his resignation had no other intent.
    Then goes right ahead to voice her opinions on immigration by accusing migrants of causing high infrastructure costs, hospital overloads, road congestion

    Around my part of the world migrants are building the roads and staffing the hospitals. Healthcare would collapse without migrants to crew the system. We have a really great hospital nearby. The staff come from all corners….amazingly good. Meanwhile, the road, electrical and gas works are done mostly at night. The workers are often migrants. The shops, the trains, the kiosk operators, the buses, the cabs, the posties….the workers who keep the place ticking over….are very frequently migrants.

    The Lib is just another nasty hate-making Reactionary looking for attention.

  16. The whole of modern Australia was built by migrants, parents of migrants or their migrant ancestry. Like it or lump it.

  17. At the end of the day, most people in the electorate want SIMPLE solutions to the problems facing Australia.

    Not this MAGA-lite horseshit again.

    Landlubber is all at sea.

  18. Hola from Tarifa. Tis 8:15am and the sun is not up – a byproduct of the extended season of daylight savings that they run in Europe: the upside is the extended evenings when the town and cities come alive. Being a Sunday, nothing is open yet, not even for a coffee.

    Thanks for all your congratulations and best wishes; I’m still stoked with how it all went. I’m off for a run as I have the world triathlon championships to race in Wollongong starting in ten days time and I cant ignore my dry land (panic) training!

  19. This is who I want to be when I grow up:

    “Officers began arresting demonstrators at the silent vigil in support of the group

    Palestine Action

    , which has been classed by the UK government as a terror organisation since July this year.

    The first arrest took place shortly after 1pm as the seated protesters took out pens and wrote signs showing support for Palestine Action.

    Dozens of police were lined up to begin arresting members of the group, who were sitting silently on the pavement in the square.

    Early indications suggest the hundreds of protesters, with a mixture of ages and different backgrounds including many retirees, may not be enough to break the record for the number of arrests.

    Two hours into the protest, the organisers said they counted about 1,000 seated people holding signs.”

    The Metropolitan police said: “The final arrest total for today’s public order policing operation in central London is 492.

    The force said 488 arrests were for supporting a proscribed organisation, while the remainder were for being drunk and disorderly, common assault, a public order offence and being wanted for an unrelated matter.

    The Met said the youngest person arrested was 18, the oldest 89.

    As of Saturday night, 297 were in custody, the rest had been bailed.”

    I want to be that 89-year-old!

    And I was not in support of Palestine Action vandalising military aircraft – that is definitely not non-violent protest – but they should have been prosecuted using existing laws.

    But I am very much in favour of the right to peaceful protest. Enough to get arrested for it.

    And what was UK Labour thinking!! Talk about an unnecessary own goal. And really not good making the police carry out all these pointless arrests.

    And what is the worst thing for a government? To be laughed at.

    Back in July, Private Eye published a cartoon after the proscription of Palestine Action in the UK

    And a former head-teacher was arrested at a protest in support of the Palestinian people not a pro-Hamas protest), for having a placard with the above cartoon.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz9kdq84j3lo

    And this video from The Guardian article is a hoot!

    https://youtu.be/mCqm16zL2pQ

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/04/palestine-action-protest-police-arrests-london-demo

  20. Great game of league, congrats Broncos on the win

    Roosters were looking for 19 straight wins and an undefeated season but fell at the final hurdle

    NRLW putting on a show

  21. ”A lot of us said Ley was a Brendan Nelson seat warmer as soon as she got the job. Not really a vicious insight. Her own side saying it just demonstrates how disunited they are.”

    Not vicious. In Opposition, the Liberals change leaders as often as they change their socks. OK, maybe an exaggeration.

    Liberal Opposition Leaders past, starting 1972:

    Sneddon 1972-75, ~ 2 years, deposed
    Fraser, 1975, < 1 year, installed by GG then won election.
    Peacock, 1983-85, 2.5 years, deposed (did better than expected in 1984 election)
    Howard, 1985-89, 3.5 years, deposed (came close in 1987 election but cruelled by his own side).
    Peacock 1989-90, < 1 year, lost election
    Hewson, 1990-94, 4 years, came close in 1990, lost “unloseable” election in 1993.
    Downer, 1994-95, < 1 year, deposed
    Howard, 1995-1996, 1 year, won election.
    Nielson 2007-08, < 1 year, deposed
    Turnbull, 2008-09, 1 year, deposed
    Abbott 2009-13, nearly 4 years, almost won in 2010 election, won in 2013.
    Dutton, 2022-25, lost election and seat
    Ley, 2025-x, where x = 25 or 26, deposed

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Liberal_Party_of_Australia

  22. Ley will not do a Malcolm in a muddle.

    Ya know call a leadership spill when ya don’t have the numbers.

    That one will go down along with his snatching of defeat from the jaws of Victory on the republican referendum in history.

    Having lots of Money does not mean you have judgement.Refer howlers above.

    Stupidity usually comes in threes so throw in his snowy hydro brainfart!
    Today’s AFR article highlights $2 billion initial cost is now $12 billion with no end in sight.

    Ahhhhhh Malcolm!

    Newspoll out now?

  23. Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has surged to its highest level since 2017, as Sussan Ley’s approval rating plunges and Labor records its strongest primary vote in 28 months.
    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian reveals core support for the Coalition remains at near-record lows while One Nation’s primary vote rose to 11 per cent, which is almost double the minor party’s performance at the May 3 election. The Newspoll, which was in the field between Monday and Thursday last week before Andrew Hastie quit Ms Ley’s shadow cabinet, shows the Coalition’s primary vote remains at a historically low 28 per cent.
    As Ms Ley battles to keep the Coalition united on key issues including migration, net zero by 2050 emissions and energy, the Opposition Leader’s net approval rating slid to minus 20, with 31 per cent of voters satisfied with her performance and 51 per cent dissatisfied.
    The poll of 1264 voters conducted ahead of house MPs and senators returning to parliament on Tuesday shows Labor’s core support rising to 37 per cent, which is the highest primary vote for the ALP since June 2023.
    With the Greens and Others category, which includes independents and minor parties, recording primary vote falls since last month’s Newspoll, Labor’s two-party-preferred vote lead over the Coalition dropped a point to 57 per cent to 43 per cent.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-one-nation-surges-as-sussan-leys-net-approval-rating-plunges/news-story/bd1e89d2319827a5bb01ce6eb0888453?amp

  24. How ancient India spread its culture without conquest

    Each of the six systems of Hindu philosophy is a search not for divinity but for what the truth could be behind the bewildering plurality of this vast cosmos

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/how-ancient-india-spread-its-culture-without-conquest-101759595211219.html#google_vignette

    “In the annals of world history, there must be no other example of this kind of sanskritic vistaarvaad or cultural amplification, which continued over a millennium and a half — from roughly the 6th century BCE to the 12th century CE.”
    – there was the diffusion of Hindu thought and culture. Evidence of this can clearly be seen in Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and beyond.”

    In 12 century CE is when Muslim Invaders established their 1st kingdom in northern parts of India

  25. I’m off for a run as I have the world triathlon championships to race in Wollongong starting in ten days time

    Wow. That’s dedication.

  26. So, Hastie might not challenge at the moment, but these things tend to snowball. If more frontbenchers resign or get kicked out then Ley’s leadership is doomed.

    If they’re still 43-57 behind or worse by the last sitting session this year then a gasket will probably blow and a challenge would be made.

  27. Meanwhile, the road, electrical and gas works are done mostly at night. The workers are often migrants. The shops, the trains, the kiosk operators, the buses, the cabs, the posties….the workers who keep the place ticking over….are very frequently migrants.

    The Lib is just another nasty hate-making Reactionary looking for attention.

    They don’t have much other options, when their whole ideology is to reduce the state and hand it all to the private sector. Even in their gilded age like dream society do they ever expect it to solve the bottlenecks in society. The only solution to them is I think is to reduce it to a compliant population, which is likely to come from the nationalist minded people.

  28. Frankly I think these reactionary numpty Liberals should split from the party and join the Nationals. Have the courage of your convictions to stand for what you say you believe in instead of just whining from the sidelines. Say what you want about the Nationals, but at least they’re up front about what they want.

    Problem is there are no federal Nationals MPs in WA, something Hastie would be well aware of. So the only alternative is to whiteant his party and his leader by sniping from the sidelines like a petulant child instead of adulting by helping the party develop realistic alternative policies.

  29. Went to Melissa McIntosh webpage.

    Apart from her staff not keeping it working – I got a demand that I log in and a message that ‘my’ instagram subscription needs updating, it was pathetic:
    -half the issues are state issues she’s whinging about
    -very very Whitebread and very very Stepford
    -keeping Dutton in the photos is not on message

    I can see that while the united front of ALP and Teals has evicted (all but) the Libs from Metro Melbourne, going to be much harder in Sydney

  30. Nick @ #989 Sunday, October 5th, 2025 – 6:38 pm

    Meanwhile, the road, electrical and gas works are done mostly at night. The workers are often migrants. The shops, the trains, the kiosk operators, the buses, the cabs, the posties….the workers who keep the place ticking over….are very frequently migrants.

    The Lib is just another nasty hate-making Reactionary looking for attention.

    They don’t have much other options, when their whole ideology is to reduce the state and hand it all to the private sector. Even in their gilded age like dream society do they ever expect it to solve the bottlenecks in society. The only solution to them is I think is to reduce it to a compliant population, which is likely to come from the nationalist minded people.

    It’s because they are lackys and lickspittles to who they see as the truly powerful. They have so little imagination they dont understand that the people, and by extension themselves, hold power in a democracy.

  31. Aqua

    I started reading it last night. The author didn’t even bother to try to be impartial. I gave up.

    Robodebt was so shit you could be fair and still pull apart the sociopaths like Campbell much more effectively.

    It reminded me a lot of the phrase “working towards the Führer” when sycophantic underlings do what they think their boss will like, irrespective of morality.

    The really sad thing is none got locked up.

  32. steve davissays:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 5:17 pm
    The whole of modern Australia was built by migrants, parents of migrants or their migrant ancestry. Like it or lump it.

    Indeed it was, beginning with the British. Some people like to forget that these days.

  33. It’s not too bad a poll for Sussan, it is bad but Labor appears to have peaked at 57%, and for all the disunity and fury from the right, One Nation is only polling 11%.

  34. Australia to blame for the Manchester terror attack? These people are not only delusional but disgraceful.

    Greens leader Larissa Waters has been roundly condemned by Labor, the Coalition and Jewish Australians after she claimed the Manchester terror attack proved Australia should have taken stronger action against Israel’s campaign in Gaza, suggesting that pro-Israel governments fuelled violence towards Jews.

    Waters was repeatedly asked on Sunday about deaths of two Jews at a UK synagogue on Yom Kippur in an attack by 35-year-old Jihad al-Shamie. The incident sparked renewed debate about antisemitism as Israel appeared on the brink of a peace deal with Hamas to bring to an end its war effort, which was labelled a genocide in a landmark United Nations inquiry a fortnight ago.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-leader-larissa-waters-slammed-by-labor-coalition-for-manchester-attack-remarks-20251005-p5n052.html

  35. How ICE is like the KKK, and another US attorney is dunzo

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/10/4/2346472/-How-ICE-is-like-the-KKK-and-another-US-attorney-is-dunzo?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web

    “Fam, is it good when a judge compares ICE to the Ku Klux Klan?
    Because that’s exactly what Judge William Young, a radical woke leftist—oh wait, he’s actually an 85-year-old Reagan appointee—had to say about President Donald Trump’s weaponization of immigration laws.

    “ICE goes masked for a single reason — to terrorize Americans into quiescence,” the ruling read. “To us, masks are associated with cowardly desperados and the despised Ku Klux Klan. In all our history we have never tolerated an armed masked secret police. Carrying on in this fashion, ICE brings indelible obloquy to this administration and everyone who works in it.”

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