Friday miscellany: Roy Morgan and Bradfield conclusion (open thread)

Of note this week: a status quo Roy Morgan result, and confirmation at last of the result in Bradfield.

The only new federal poll this week was the monthly-or-so accumulation from Roy Morgan, encompassing 5084 responses from between August 25 and September 21. Labor is credited with a lead of 55.5-44.5 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures, which is in from 56.5-43.5 last month on respondent-allocated, but unchanged on previous election. There is next to no change on the primary vote: Labor is on 34%, the Coalition 30% and the Greens 12%, no different from last time, while One Nation gains half a point to 9.5%. The accompanying release has two-party breakdowns by state and gender.

The other big electoral news of the week was Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian abandoning her Court of Disputed Returns challenge to her 26-vote defeat at the hands of independent Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. Kapterian said the opportunity to review the ballot papers that had been referred to Australian Electoral Officer for adjudication during the counting process left her “satisfied the right call was made overall”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Friday miscellany: Roy Morgan and Bradfield conclusion (open thread)”

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  1. ‘Fulvio Sammut says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 2:24 pm

    Why call a secret meeting of generals and admirals?
    …’
    =======================
    Maybe Humpty Trumpty has had a great fall?

    All the king’s horses and all the king’s men
    …
    ?

  4. Who is this Murdoch press Israel lobby-aligned Nick Dyrenfurth character who is apparently involved with the Labor Party but is talking up Andrew Hastie as ‘Labor’s worst nightmare’ ? Murdoch always put forward these Labor members who seem to be close to the conservative worldview.

  5. The poll of 1,327 Victorians was conducted via internet panel from 2 to 9 September 2025. The effective margin of error was +/- 3.5%.

    Labor (with Jacinta Allan as Leader) 26% ; Liberal / National (with Brad Battin as Leader) 38% ; The Greens 15% ; Any Other Candidate 21%

    By age 18-24: 21% (LNP) ; 30% (Lab) ; 39% (Greens) ; 10% (Others) ; 7% (Don’t know)

  6. Mavis

    I agree with your concerns on the Comey indictments. Corruption is one thing, but state sanctioned trials of political critics are a long way down the road to autocracy

  8. pegasus @ 8.53am
    I believe that Port Kembla rules itself out as a submarine bass due to the topography and geography of that section of coast.
    An area subject to frequent earth tremors would be unsuitable for most naval bases.

  10. Socratessays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 2:36 pm
    Mavis

    I agree with your concerns on the Comey indictments. Corruption is one thing, but state sanctioned trials of political critics are a long way down the road to autocracy
    _______________________________________
    He gets away with things that no other President could. It’s quite something, but he’s installed a Catholic Right dominated Supreme Court that’s got his back.

  12. It is hardly a secret meeting if people know about it. It is probably just to complain that people are not calling the Department of Defence the “War Department”. Too many of them are not Trump’s people and if anything dodgy was being raised in the meeting, it would leak.

    All star ranks in the US military require Senate approval, so there has not been a mad rush of MAGA people into the high echelons of their Military. Technically, every promotion to 04 (so Majors and Lt. Commanders) and above requires senate approval, but the lower ranks are generally just done as a list which is waved through.

  14. Trump described by Oliver Kornetzke:


    “Behold. The festering carcass of American rot shoved into an ill-fitting suit: the sleaze of a conman, the cowardice of a draft dodger, the gluttony of a parasite, the racism of a Klansman, the sexism of a back-alley creep, the ignorance of a bar-stool drunk, and the greed of a hedge-fund ghoul—all spray-painted orange and paraded like a prize hog at a county fair. Not a president. Not even a man. Just the diseased distillation of everything this country swears it isn’t but has always been arrogance dressed up as exceptionalism, stupidity passed off as common sense, cruelty sold as toughness, greed exalted as ambition, and corruption worshiped like gospel. It is America’s shadow made flesh, a rotting pumpkin idol proving that when a nation kneels before money, power, and spite, it doesn’t just lose its soul-it shits out this bloated obscenity and calls it a leader.”

    https://www.facebook.com/CommunityOfIndependentHumanBeings/posts/oliver-kornetzke-august-18-at-419-pmbehold-the-festering-carcass-of-american-rot/1351736273624841/

  15. That Victorian poll is somewhat concerning. With a uniform 6% swing, Labor would lose 8 seats to the Coalition, and with a swing to the Greens they’d probably lose a few more and be close to being put into a minority government position.

    Possibly once the Metro Tunnel comes online things may start to change. But the crime rate is starting to bite as a major political issue that needs to be addressed.

  16. On Comey indictment; that merely means that within a Grand Jury of 23 people, that 12 were willing to have charges pressed against Comey on the evidence that only the prosecution put forward (that is they thought there might be a case).
    What it does not mean is that after the evidence is presented to 12 people by both sides, that they have found Comey guilty. That is a much harder task and I doubt that will accomplished – too many members of the jury will see it as a political prosecution and refuse to convict.
    It is a fairly boneheaded move too by the Bondi and Trump as in order to prove Comey lied they will have to prove that what he said was knowing untrue. That will mean going over the 2016 Russian inference evidence in open court once more.

    Likewise with the troop deployment in DC, the Grand Juries have been very reluctant to lay charges against people who have been involved in political protest. For example, the guy who threw a subway sandwich at the troops was charge with assault and battery with a weapon and the Grand Jury refused to indict him, resulting it being downgraded to a misdemeanour. So although the judges of the courts might have been stacked, the juries can’t be.

  17. Kirsdrake – The Victorian crime stats were actually interesting in the weeds. The number of youth offenders is actually down but there is a core of 1100 who are causing the bulk of the trouble. Lock most of them up, and the problem should reduce… problem is the Justice system only has about 250 youth justice beds.

  19. Fulvio Sammut

    Why call a secret meeting of generals and admirals?

    To swear an oath of allegiance?

    I so, I would have thought they had already done that.

    Ahh, but to Trump personally?

    I think the MAGA leaders are trolling the left. They are following the Nazi playbook consciously.

    And, to be fair, all indications are that Hitler was very popular until Stalingrad.

    I guess the MAGA leaders figure that as long as they don’t invade Russia it will be fine.

  20. Bizzcansays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 3:10 pm
    Why are Victorians complaining? The average house price for the state is lower than it was 4 years ago – isn’t this what you all wanted?
    _______________________
    Forget house prices, people are just sick of all the corruption.

  21. This purchase of Nabrawind by Fortescue is a big deal, I reckon. I don’t think we’ve ever had an Australian owned wind turbine manufacturer before. The following extract from June last year describes their products:

    “Nabrawind has commercialised five wind energy technologies: Nabralift, a self-erecting wind turbine tower; Nabrajoint, a modular blade technology; and Nabrabase, billed as “a very competitive and environmentally friendly elevated foundation for wind farms located in places where the concrete supply or the soil conditions may represent a challenge.

    It has also created BladeRunner, a crane-less blade maintenance and installation system; and Skylift, a full crane-less wind turbine installation system.”

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/fortescue-invests-more-in-self-erecting-wind-tower-innovator/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQTYyeAp7Gc

  22. While that Victorian state poll could be an outlier I think the contrast between the State figures and the Federal ones is very telling. It seems that there are issues exclusive to Victoria that are beginning to bite, law and order for example, or lack thereof. The proposed special treatment for aborigines may not be all that popular either.

  23. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 2:31 pm

    Morrison and Albo should be condemned for putting Australia in this insidious position of weakness due to AUKUS

    This is just wrong. The actual position is that the US some decades ago lost interest in defending Australia. Successive Australian Governments – at least since the 1980s – have been trying to keep the US interested. Beazley had more success with this than most. These efforts to be relevant have included trying to align our naval strategies and our equipment plans with theirs. AUKUS is a part of this attempt. All our misadventures in the Middle East have been inspired by the same goal…to be noticed and valued by the US

    Most likely all of this will prove to be futile. Unless a new cold war commences and the US is impelled to rebuild its system of alliances, then we will be on our own.

    No-one is much interested in Australian defences. How could this be otherwise? Most powers are trying to assemble the budgets and systems they need to defend themselves. When not mis-spending on our defence we have been under-spending. We need to get a much better fix on what we’re trying to achieve and how we’re going to do it.

    We owe our strategic pointlessness to Gorbachev. He dismantled Stalinist Russia and its pre-emptively occupied neighbours. He made us irrelevant to peace in the Atlantic and therefore to the US.

    In a general way we have been very lightly defended ever since, though have never really noticed until now. Inadvertently Trump has done us a favour. By illustrating just how capricious and inward-looking the US has become he has forced everyone to reconsider the international order and their place in it.

    We will have to walk on our two feet, unaided by the US.

  24. LMay take on 100% Tariffs on Pharmaceutical drugs:
    Albanese took a selfie with Trump the previous day. Trump looked so ugly in that photo, he got angry with Albanese for showing him in bad shape.
    Trump thinking goes like this:
    1. First that obnoxious Journalist from Australia asked horrible questions at doorstep presser and showed me in bad light.
    2. Albanese took a horrible selfie with me.
    So how should I punish Australia for their disloyalty. Impose 100% tariffs on Pharmaceutical drugs. That will teach them a lesson. The US Pharma is asking me to take some action on Australia regarding Pharmaceutical goods. This action will dovetail with their request.

  25. Socrates:

    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 2:36 pm

    [‘Mavis

    I agree with your concerns on the Comey indictments. Corruption is one thing, but state sanctioned trials of political critics are a long way down the road to autocracy’]

    Slightly off topic, but had Garland acted with alacrity in indicting Trump, he could have been in the slammer way before the last election. He didn’t act decisively as he thought he’d be accused of bias. History might record him as being responsible for the politicisation of the D of J and the election of Trump, as I doubt he would have won the election from a gaol cell.

  29. Hang on, if Trump’s tweet is law (and I guess it is in the lawless USA) then all I need to do to sell tariff free drugs in the USA is buy some crappy piece of land in Bumphuck, Idaho, and have a ceremony with local republican worthies of how this is going to be the greatest pharmaceutical plant in America and toss some soil with a shovel and that will get me a few years of peace.

  30. Kirsdarke says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 3:00 pm
    That Victorian poll is somewhat concerning. …
    ===============
    Key take out’s:

    * 12 PHON (Federal) vote in Victoria?? Up 6.2% since the May election. Refer page 6
    * Page 7 – Females aged 18-24. 59% Green Primary (state) vote? What on earth is this?
    * Page 7 – Gen X & Boomer men dislike (correction, despise) Labor in Victoria
    * Page 8 – Libs lead on the primaries in every social cohort, except “renters”, & the only area where the ALP in Vic leads the Libs on the 2PP are – Inner Metro voters, voters with a TAFE/Trade certificate or Post Grad, & Renters.

    Everywhere else is looking a clean sweep for Mr Battin.

    The Fed Vote figures out of Victoria appear on page 6. ALP down since the May election, but Libs down 3% and PHON up 6% to 12. ???? Really?

    We’ll have a Resolve Political Monitor Poll on/around Sunday 13-Oct, with follow up Victorian state figures a couple of days later. We’ll see in a couple of weeks whether this is an “outlier” poll.

    I’ll be honest & say that a 59% primary for the Greens amongst young women sounds completely ridiculous. I mean, do the Greens have some sort of “hunk” leading them in Victoria or what exactly is this primary figure all about?

  31. Russia has been cynically exempting itself from obligations under international law in its treatment of Ukrainian POW’s:

    Russia is responsible for “widespread and systematic violations” of international law in the treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war including “arbitrary killings”, according to a report from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The violations also include “torture, ill-treatment, denial of fair trial rights and unsafe detention and transfer conditions”, it said. The Vienna-based OSCE’s report, published on Thursday, is the result of a mission of three experts tasked to look into Russia’s treatment of Ukrainian PoWs. They found that Ukrainian soldiers were not recognised as prisoners of war by Russia, which “opens the door for criminal prosecution of PoWs for mere participation in hostilities”. “The mission documented a high number of arbitrary killings and executions attributable to the Russian Federation, occurring both on the battlefield and in detention,” the report said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/26/ukraine-war-briefing-un-watchdog-sounds-warning-after-drone-detonates-near-ukraine-nuclear-plant

    Russia must be militarily defeated in Ukraine ASAP, to (among many, many other things) stop this cruel mistreatment of POW’s. Any and all means must be employed by Ukraine and its allies to achieve this.

  32. Socrates:

    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 2:36 pm

    ++++++++
    ‘Mavis

    I agree with your concerns on the Comey indictments. Corruption is one thing, but state sanctioned trials of political critics are a long way down the road to autocracy’]

    Slightly off topic, but had Garland acted with alacrity in indicting Trump, he could have been in the slammer way before the last election. He didn’t act decisively as he thought he’d be accused of bias. History might record him as being responsible for the politicisation of the D of J and the election of Trump, as I doubt he would have won the election from a gaol cell.

    +++++++++++++++++++++

    Both Comey and Garland are at fault. And Biden.

    The Repubs were accusing Dems of political witch hunts without merit anyway – the outcome if it WAS in fact politically motivated would have been no different.

    All the tellings of alternative history would have had nooses around the necks of Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, anyone who took seriously what these sorts of people inevitably do when given power.

    The few genuine ‘moderate’ republicans are long gone, and arguably are the modern Democrat party – low tax, pro-business and pro-Israel, so those MAGA ones are not the ones you need to worry about alienating – they had you normal centrist Dems in their gunsights back in McCarthy’s day, or Nixon’s or Reagan’s or whenever you care to look.

  35. @nadia88 at 4:43pm

    Now that you mention it that Green 59% Primary Vote for 18-24 year old females does seem pretty dodgy.

    I’ll probably wait for other polls to see if that is in fact the case.

  36. Again, Trump comes across as being disappointed with Putin for completely the wrong reason:

    “I’m very dissatisfied with what Russia is doing and what President Putin is doing. I haven’t liked it at all. He’s killing people for no reason whatsoever. And they are doing very poorly considering they have put it all out on the line. Their economy is going to hell.”

    Trump added that the war launched by the Kremlin is dragging on and has entered its fourth year. Despite the heavy bombing, Moscow has managed to seize very little territory and has even suffered losses.

    “They’re bombing the hell out of everything and they’re picking up very little territory if any. In fact, they’re losing some territory. So, I think it’s been very bad for the reputation of Russia,” he said.

    Trump emphasised that “this war should have been over”. In his view, if it were a US war, he would have ended it “in one week”.

    “You see what they’ve taken now. The last month they’ve taken very little. And you’ve been reporting on all the bombing, all the drones all over the place. Nine hundred drones coming into certain areas like Kyiv in one night. And with all of that work, they’ve taken over very little. So, I’m very disappointed in President Putin.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/26/7532592/

  38. Holdenhillbilly says Friday, September 26, 2025 at 1:44 pm

    If the current episode of stratospheric warming filters downwards through the atmosphere, it could cause the tropospheric polar vortex to weaken, allowing southern hemisphere’s polar jet stream to drag cold air away from Antarctica. This jet stream pattern, which is associated with a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), would make the following conditions more likely in Australia during late September and early October:
    More rain and westerly winds over far southern Australia, including parts of Tas, Vic, SA and WA.
    Drier-than-average weather over eastern Australia
    Higher chance of abnormally hot days in southern Australia
    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/stratospheric-warming-is-weakening-the-southern-hemispheres-polar-vortex/1890898

    Over a decade ago ABC’s Catalyst episode “Extreme Weather” explained how global warming was disrupting the jet stream patterns in the northern hemisphere and causing blizzards in North America: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMsNKG5N9bg

  39. Corleone says Friday, September 26, 2025 at 4:39 pm

    Hang on, if Trump’s tweet is law (and I guess it is in the lawless USA) then all I need to do to sell tariff free drugs in the USA is buy some crappy piece of land in Bumphuck, Idaho, and have a ceremony with local republican worthies of how this is going to be the greatest pharmaceutical plant in America and toss some soil with a shovel and that will get me a few years of peace.

    A bit of a prisoner’s dilemma. Probably the best thing for the industry is for all the companies to do nothing and wait for TACO, the courts or public opinion to see the end of the tariffs. The best individual option is probably to pretend to do something.

  40. The trend in Demos poll is actually up for Labor. The previous poll was 48-52. Plus the smaller figures are always going to be questionable when drilled too far for a poll of 1400. The margin of error is going to double when looking at the Gender categories and then age groups is going to be much higher.

  41. You’d think regular readers of this blog would know better than to pin such a weight of analysis on a single polling data point. I’m referring to to DemosAU Victorian state poll WB linked earlier.

    The trend all this year, since Brad Battin took over as Lib leader, has been an improvement for Labor and a decline for the Coalition, both on PV and on TPP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Victorian_state_election#Opinion_polling

    EDIT: this hasn’t updated with the latest DemosAU yet.

  43. Kirsdarke says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 4:55 pm
    @nadia88 at 4:43pm

    Now that you mention it that Green 59% Primary Vote for 18-24 year old females does seem pretty dodgy.

    I’ll probably wait for other polls to see if that is in fact the case.
    ============
    Yes I think so too. My eyeballs nearly fell out when I saw that figure for the Greens. I could understand maybe mid to high 20’s – for that age group – but 59% has come from outer space.
    I’ve just checked their meth statement. I thought for a minute they may have conducted the poll outside Greens HQ in Queen St, Melbourne, but it was an online poll.

    In a couple of weeks we’ll have the Resolve update from Vic. I’m figuring the ALP will drop down a bit and the Libs up. Last Vic Resolve from 17-Aug was : LNP 33, ALP 32, GRN 12.

  44. Scott says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 5:08 pm
    The opinion polling which has
    2pp
    Lib/Nats 51% Labor 49%

    primary vote
    Lib/nats combined 38%
    Labor 26%

    My thoughts , its in the bin
    ===============
    Forget the bin, I’m putting this “Demos poll” in the shredder.
    59% primary vote for the Greens amongst women aged 18-24 in Vic, is hysteria.
    Makes the Freshwater polls earlier this year look tame.

    59% my handbag.

  47. Ven – the Pharma tariff has nothing to do with Albo or Australia. It’s not specific to Australia. That’s just Sussan Ley dishonest shit, to try and blame Albo and Rudd for it. Don’t go along with that.

    What’s even dumber is Australia are probably not affected anyway since CSL does manufacture in the US already (the stock fall for CSL after the news demonstrates that investors are not especially bright).

  48. Trump says he ‘will not allow’ Israel to annex West Bank after lobbying from allies

    Yeh ..sure & how is the Fat are*d Chump going to do that.. send in the B1’s to bomb Tel Aviv ?

  49. “59% primary vote for the Greens amongst women aged 18-24 in Vic”

    Actually makes sense – childless zoomers pissed off that their millennial bosses with kids get even more flexibility and work-from-home rights than they do.

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