Friday miscellany: Roy Morgan and Bradfield conclusion (open thread)

Of note this week: a status quo Roy Morgan result, and confirmation at last of the result in Bradfield.

The only new federal poll this week was the monthly-or-so accumulation from Roy Morgan, encompassing 5084 responses from between August 25 and September 21. Labor is credited with a lead of 55.5-44.5 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures, which is in from 56.5-43.5 last month on respondent-allocated, but unchanged on previous election. There is next to no change on the primary vote: Labor is on 34%, the Coalition 30% and the Greens 12%, no different from last time, while One Nation gains half a point to 9.5%. The accompanying release has two-party breakdowns by state and gender.

The other big electoral news of the week was Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian abandoning her Court of Disputed Returns challenge to her 26-vote defeat at the hands of independent Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. Kapterian said the opportunity to review the ballot papers that had been referred to Australian Electoral Officer for adjudication during the counting process left her “satisfied the right call was made overall”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Friday miscellany: Roy Morgan and Bradfield conclusion (open thread)”

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  1. Here in Victoria, theft of cars by young offenders has gone through the roof this past year. Mainly due to a digital app that unlocks the car without need for physical remote.

    The offenders are a small group which keep reoffending. I guess the courts need to decide on what constitutes a deterrent for these repeat offenders going forward.

    Also the other main criminal element has been the tobacco wars I have mentioned countless times.

    Recently vic pol and the ABF finally made some significant arrests in this space. Hopefully that will make a difference to overall crime in future.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-11/melbourne-illegal-tobacco-arrest/105760448

  2. meher babasays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 11:11 am

    I am sceptical that Australia will ever develop a competitive advantage in making motor vehicles.

    _______________________

    I’m mainly arguing we should never have let them close in the first place – once the factories have closed, it is incredibly hard to rebuild them. We should have kept them open and pivoted them to EVs.

    And this is not some lame “national security” thing to build tanks or whatever – but there is no natural law that says we must have bought chinese EVs over a protected industry. Evey other country does it, even china could just said “well, lets just buy subsidized Japanese cars” but they decided to invest in a huge way.

    But the Australian political commentariat, not helped by the economic illiteracy of Australian economic commentators, can’t see the often policy conflict between “efficiency” and “productivity”.

    Australia’s mining industry is ten times more productive (value per hour worked) compared to any other industry – of course in an “efficient policy” land its going to soak up resources despite the sulking of some.

    And now we are in the dumb situation of our national income heavily driven by an industry most hate, yet effort to pivot elsewhere are mocked and complained about.

    People can’t complain that we have a “dumb economy” and then complain about trying to change it.

  3. All Trump and co are aiming to do is have a populace in the USA who are more unwell than ever before.

    Dr Oz who Oprah initially brought to fame. Right hand man of a trump is spruiking his snake oil. You know it makes sense.
    Always follow the money.

    Trump is bad and mad. But ultimately one very evil f@@ker.

  4. unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America???

    He is a convicted Felon a rapist book cooker and now a blackmailer !

    Me thinks will come to a sticky END !.

  5. Arky
    [I also heard the talk about Costello wanting to come back when PM Abbott was on the cards (presumably understanding that Abbott would never last and he could then swoop the way Turnbull ended up doing) but have no idea how serious it was.]

    That’s just made up bullshit for the idiots.

  6. Ha Ha Comey made up lies about Trump now being dealt with.

    Trump has deep pockets!

    Wst OZ now…

    Politics
    World Politics
    Sir Keir Starmer to tell left-wing love-in as Anthony Albanese touches down in London
    Headshot of Latika M Bourke
    Latika M Bourke
    The Nightly
    Fri, 26 September 2025 5:40AM

  7. From what I’ve been reading it sounds like Hastie may be challenging Ley for the Liberal leadership within weeks.

    Is that the realistic view or will they wait until at least next year?

  8. Cartoon Time!

    Mark David

    Matthew Absolom-Wong

    Matt Golding

    Cathy Wilcox

    Dionne Gain

    Simon Letch

    Fiona Katauskas Is the United Nations still relevant? Maybe it just needs a rebrand

    First Dog On the Moon: Sadly this adorable cuddly bat is critically endangered. Who do we think we are!?

    Ben Jennings on Donald Trump’s UN speech

    Martin Rowson on Donald Trump and the return of Jimmy Kimmel

    From the Internet

    ‪Acyn‬
    ‪@acyn.bsky.social‬

    OBAMA: It’s fair to say that 80% of the world’s problems involve old men hanging on who are afraid of death and insignificance, and they won’t let go. They build pyramids, and they put their names on everything. They get very anxious about it.

    Enjoy!

  9. Political Nightwatchman: “Where’s your source for this? Peter Costello said in an interview after the 2007 federal election that John Howard wasn’t surprised Costello refused to stand for the leadership.”
    —————————————————————————–
    Costello never had the numbers, except perhaps a few months prior to the 2007 election when it was abundantly clear that – thanks to Rudd’s popularity, along with WorkChoices 2.0 and other stuff-ups – the Coalition was looking likely to be trounced. You might recall that stories appeared in the media at around the time of the APEC meeting in Sydney in early September that various senior Libs, with Downer at the forefront, had approached Howard and attempted to persuade him to retire. But he continued to hold on to the delusion that he would win the election. Once Howard had said no, there was no way that Costello could move against him, as that would have torn the party apart.

    @meher baba

    Sorry, I meant John Howard wasn’t surprised Peter Costello didn’t stand as opposition leader after Howard’s loss in 2007. Howard on the night of the defeat, appointed him as the heir apparent. He would have had the leadership, but I don’t believe he thought Labor would capitulate so quickly. Michael Kroger did say Peter Costello wanted back in parliament when it looked clear Tony Abbott was going to become Prime Minster.

    But I did misread your first comment. I thought you were saying Howard was pushing Turnbull and Abbott post-Howard prime ministership. So Peter Costello couldn’t get the Liberal leadership, when you were saying it was to protect Howard’s Prime Ministership. My bad, sorry for the confusion.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4EvgMp846A

  10. meher babasays:

    Is there any evidence to suggest that BRS is a religous fundamentalist?
    __________________________________________
    Hastie’s father is apparently a Creationist who has written articles in defense of it. Hastie himself refuses to answer whether he believes in Creationism or go into any details of his faith apart from affirming that he is a Christian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/10/canning-byelection-andrew-hastie-refuses-to-give-his-views-on-creationism

  11. nath WTF? you’re the second person today has answered my question about BRS’s religiosity or lack thereof with something about Hastie.

    I already knew Hastie was an evangelical type. It’s been bleeding obvious for years.

    You and c@t are of a like mind about something!

  12. Bizzcansays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 11:55 am

    I’m mainly arguing we should never have let them close in the first place – once the factories have closed, it is incredibly hard to rebuild them. We should have kept them open and pivoted them to EVs.
    ________________________
    Yeah. Lets compete with Tesla and BYD who make millions of cars while our boutique factories push out tens of thousands of cars that are shittier and more expensive.

    Who is going to start this car manufacturing? The government? Because no properly run corporation is stupid enough to do it.

  13. meher babasays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 12:56 pm
    nath WTF? you’re the second person today has answered my question about BRS’s religiosity or lack thereof with something about Hastie.
    _____________________
    Yeah I thought you were talking about Hastie. Hazards of speed reading!

  14. Trump is not going to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year because nominations closed in the middle of February. Therefore when the winner is announced next month, there will be a massive whine from the MAGA crowd without realising that it is simply not possible for his work of this year to be considered.

    He probably won’t win it next year because the criteria for the Prize is “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” He has held a lot of “Peace congresses” but he has certainly not been working for fraternity between nations.

  15. It is incumbent on serious journalists to ask Hastie at every opportunity as to whether or not he is a creationist. Creationism is not just doing unto others as you would have them do unto you. It is wholesale fairy tale fundamentalism. If he seeks to lead the country we deserve to know.

  16. pied piper says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 11:44 am

    Trump is doing 4 things with his tariff ‘policy’:

    1. Driving down real wages in the US
    2. Closing down US extra-territorial manufacturing sectors
    3. Driving investment away from the US
    4. Inviting retaliatory discrimination from consumers, businesses and governments of other countries, which will suppress demand for US products, especially high technologies, defence equipment, agricultural products and cultural goods/services

    He has other destructive policies as well:

    5. Disruption of the temporary/transitional labour force and industries that rely on them in the US
    6. Disruption of the scientific/technical labour force and the US institutions that exist because of them
    7. Alienation of traditional allies and friends of the US

    Amazing. Absolutely amazing that such destructive policies should be both conceived and then happily applied.

  17. From what I’ve been reading it sounds like Hastie may be challenging Ley for the Liberal leadership within weeks.

    Is that the realistic view or will they wait until at least next year?

    @Landlubber

    It was reported on 7:30 report that he doesn’t have the numbers. But if it doesn’t happen before Christmas, it will happen after. I think Sussan Ley will have some protection for a while despite her narrow win against Angus Taylor. There will be some Liberals who will hesitate to move on a woman so quickly. Let’s be realistic, she hasn’t given enough time to have a fair go. The problem for Ley is the Liberal Party needs reform, and if she were to push for that. There would be men in the party who are resistant, and Andrew Hastie or Angus Taylor would use the resistance for change to topple her.

  18. Brand USA….failing…losing market share…associated with recurring product rejection and management failure….seriously compromised by frequent false product claims, failure of warranties, inferior communication experiences, conspicuous non-delivery and generally contemptuous, exhibitionist bravado….executive led by a psychotic criminal.

  19. Emmanuel Macron
    @EmmanuelMacron
    I have just spoken with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

    I expressed France’s full solidarity with Denmark following repeated intrusions by unidentified drones affecting operations at Copenhagen Airport.

    France stands ready to support Denmark in assessing the situation and contributing to the security of Danish airspace.
    7:14 AM · Sep 26, 2025
    ·
    423.9K
    Views

    Who can that be that sent the drone?

  20. The Reactionaries are intent on choosing electoral irrelevance. Good. Very good indeed. They have betrayed this country in many ways over the years. They delude themselves and hope to deceive the country at large. They should lose all their seats. They are not fit to serve this country.

  21. Shogun says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 1:15 pm
    Hack

    And…
    8. Raising prices for U.S. consumers on essentially EVERYTHING.

    Because tariff = tax = tariff.

    Yes….implicit in my 1. Reducing real wages….

    The free trade and investment system erected after WW2 gave rise to a truly phenomenal increase in real wages for billions of working people. Trump would undo all that. Very fortunately he will fail. The further liberalisation of trade and investment in the non-US economies will very likely proceed.

    We can soon kiss goodbye to the USD as the major reserve currency. That will certainly level the playing field.

  22. At the time I could not believe the Liberals were happy to destroy the Australian Car Industry.

    It turned out to be something that was going to happen anyway, if we as a country were going to get access to Chinese Electric cars, without crazy import tariffs.
    Just look at the efforts of Canada, Europe and the USA as they try and save their industries.

  23. MABwM says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 1:03 pm
    _______________________________
    After reading the piece in The Guardian I find it very easy believe that Hastie is a believer in creationism/intelligent design. His increasingly evasive and angry replies leave no doubt and if he wants it all to go away then all he has to do is give an hones…oh wait, he’s a Liberal. That screws the rest of that sentence.

  24. Looking around the world news, it looks like Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure is starting to bite them, given they’ve made cuts to their exports.

    This might actually turn out to be a winning strategy for Ukraine, Russia simply cannot operate without fuel, and them cutting their own exports will certainly damage their economy even more.

  25. Socrates says Friday, September 26, 2025 at 1:09 pm

    At this point the US Australia FTA is worthless.

    Why build factories in USA? Trump might change the rules again.

    Or the President who comes after him. How can anyone now trust any agreement signed with the US Government? These short term “wins” are doing long term damage to the US.

    Then there’s the uncertainty of whether the courts will even find these tariffs legal.

  26. Brilliant rant from John Birmingham.

    https://aliensideboob.substack.com/p/your-airborne-toxic-event-has-been

    I’m certain that the ever-dwindling numbers of the Press Gallery’s full-time roster would have love-love-loved to have trapped Albanese in a presser with Trump one New York minute after that shit show. They’d have needed a double layer of adult diapers to contain their excitement at all of the excruciating moments they could have crafted, interrogating Albanese about Trump’s performance.

    “Prime Minister, do you support President Cannibal’s chewing off the faces of the Nigerian delegation?”

    With the bubbling hysteria of the Aussie press gallery’s ‘will-they-won’t-they’ coverage threatening to boil over, it was left to White House Press Secretary and Crumb Maiden Barbie, Karoline Leavitt to point out that her Führer’s schedule was already full of meetings for coffee and cake and rare earth extortion schemes with the leader of Ukraine, a grip-n-greet with the leaders of a bunch of shit-hole countries he was about to insult from the podium of the General Assembly, but unfortunately with nary a sausage for Albo.

    Oh noes! Disaster for the little Vegemiters.

    Perhaps, however, and hear me out now, Albo was better off without the sausage, the meeting or the Airborne Toxic Event of walking into a room with Trump. (His adult diapers are known to fail routinely.)

  27. If the current episode of stratospheric warming filters downwards through the atmosphere, it could cause the tropospheric polar vortex to weaken, allowing southern hemisphere’s polar jet stream to drag cold air away from Antarctica. This jet stream pattern, which is associated with a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), would make the following conditions more likely in Australia during late September and early October:
    More rain and westerly winds over far southern Australia, including parts of Tas, Vic, SA and WA.
    Drier-than-average weather over eastern Australia
    Higher chance of abnormally hot days in southern Australia
    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/stratospheric-warming-is-weakening-the-southern-hemispheres-polar-vortex/1890898

  28. Trump’s retribution knows no bounds, exemplified by his direction to A-G Bondi to indict Comey, and, after a prima facie case was established, to use his influence to further denigrate him. He has no conception of the established principle that the D of Justice should not operate as a president’s plaything – it should be at arm’s length to the Oval Office. This is yet another example of Trump trashing a convention that kept the wheels of
    democracy well-oiled.

  29. Is sky after dark (SAD) a Labor psyop ?

    As SAD has successfully destroyed the Liberal party it is the only option that makes sense. The question then becomes, who is part of the operation and who has been sucked in.

    Is pp a Labor psyop operative, or has he been sucked in by the psyop?

  30. What will the Labor Govt respond with re our pharma being smashed with a US tariff hike ?

    Not a fckn thing.

    Why ?

    Marles has no plan B (AUKUS)


  31. frednksays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 2:09 pm
    Is sky after dark (SAD) a Labor psyop ?

    As SAD has successfully destroyed the Liberal party it is the only option that makes sense. The question then becomes, who is part of the operation and who has been sucked in.

    Stephen Conroy? 🙂

  32. blackburnpseph says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 11:18 am
    “There was no story about Victorian crime statistics in the outlets I consult”

    C@tmomma

    Where do you get your news? – it was covered by the ABC, The Age and the Guardian. It didn’t seem to be covered in the Daily Mail – your news source of choice?

    Please excuse me, blackburnpseph, for the crime of living in NSW. Do you want me to fly down to Victoria every day so that the geolocator on my computer linked to the ABC, and probably The Guardian, picks up a specifically Victorian story? I generally do not consult The Age because I do my research on The Sydney Morning Herald website and I sure as hell am not going to spend extra time every morning scouring The Age for the infinitesimal number of Victorian stories that are not on the SMH website, which does have a Victorian politics section fyi, just so Taylormade can tee off on the Victorian State Labor government.

    However, as I keep on saying, if you, or anyone else wants to bring these stories to our attention then you are free to do so. Just don’t keep trying to shoot the messenger by way of an excuse for your own laziness. Okay?


  33. Rex Douglassays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 1:53 pm
    Albo takes cringe selfie with rogue leader. Nek minnut rogue leader smashes our pharma industry with 100% tariff hike.

    You have a point there Rex. 🙂
    I said yesterday that everything Trump says are lies. Don’t believe anything he says. That will keep you sane.

  34. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 1:53 pm
    Albo takes cringe selfie with rogue leader. Nek minnut rogue leader smashes our pharma industry with 100% tariff hike.

    It was actually a few months ago that Trump telegraphed it. But what-ever.

  35. You have a point there Rex.

    No, he doesn’t actually. Or only if you are fishing about for the slightest superficial interpretation of events.

  36. Why call a secret meeting of generals and admirals?

    To swear an oath of allegiance?

    I so, I would have thought they had already done that.

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