The Herald Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51.5-48.5 at the last such poll in July, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 37% and Greens 13% – in each case down a point on last time. The poll was conducted September 3 to 11 from a sample of 2005 – Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group relates further breakdowns via X.
Further Victorian electoral news:
• The Age reports Labor sources saying it is “increasingly likely” the government will move to abolish group voting tickets for the Legislative Council early next year, the state being the last holdout for a system that once prevailed in the Senate and all state upper houses. Most recently, a new system for the Western Australian Legislative Council took effect at the election in March which also abolished the previously existing system of six six-member regions, similar to Victoria’s system of eight five-member regions. The election of the entire chamber at large meant a low quota for election that allowed Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice to win seats: tellingly, the Victorian branches of these parties “support the abolition of group voting tickets only if accompanied by a bigger reform like replacing the eight regions with a single statewide electorate”.
• Former Liberal leader Michael O’Brien announced a fortnight ago that he will retire at the next election, creating a vacancy in his historically safe seat of Malvern. Rachel Eddie of The Age reports those named as possible successors include Jacquie Blackwell, chair of the state party’s women’s council, and an ally of the locally influential Josh Frydenberg; Amelia Hamer, the stock market analyst who ran unsuccessfully against Monique Ryan in Kooyong at the May federal election; Holly Byrne, a local business owner; Josh Fast, a “former corporate lawyer who now runs an education business” and Marcus Pearl, a former Port Phillip councillor.
• Shannon Deery of the Herald Sun reports the parliament’s longest serving current member, former Treasurer Kim Wells, has told Liberal colleagues he will retire at the next election, creating a preselection vacancy in his outer eastern Melbourne seat of Rowville. Another recently announced Liberal retiree is Croydon MP David Hodgett.
• The Australian reports Western Victoria region MLC Gayle Tierney has rejected suggestions she will retire at the next election, an eventuality that some in the party were pointing to as a potential lifeline for Dylan Wight should he face a preselection challenge in Tarneit. That possibility was in turn raised when the party’s national executive lifted a seven-year ban on Indian community powerbroker Jasvinder Sidhu from contesting preselections, imposed in 2020 after a party investigation alleged he had “engaged in branch-stacking and stoked ethnic resentment”. All concerned are members of the Socialist Left.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
after a party investigation alleged he had “engaged in branch-stacking and stoked ethnic resentment”.
_______________________ Jasvinder Sidhu – The Jacinta Price of Vic Labor.
@Taylormade, in what way is Jasvinder Sidhu in anyway the Jacinta Nampijinpa Price of Voc Labor? I’m genuinely interested in how you get there?
_____
And all this before the voters actually take a look at what and who the libs are offering. Dutton was ahead at this stage!
And the new underground stations are about to open.
The Libs will get buried.
Until such time Redbridge explicitly polls One Nation in the Victorian State Election polling then anything Kos Samaras predicts via Redbridge is not worth the paper it’s written on. According to this poll only 82% voted for the Labor, Coalition, Greens parties. A very large 18% voted for Others and based upon the 3 national polls released this week I would safely bet the majority of that 18% Others vote is for the One Nation Party. Additionally, explicitly providing One Nation as a choice in the Redbridge poll would, I suspect, reduce the Coalition’s vote and the Labor Party vote. Everyone understands One Nation is a threat to the Coalition but it is also a threat to the Labor Party as the working class are increasingly shifting to One Nation for a number of reasons. This voting pattern has occurred in the UK as the Reform UK Party has destroyed both the Conservative Party and the Labour as traditional Conservative Party voters and the Labour Party’s working class base desert both of those old parties.
But Rob, we are in a compulsory preferential system. Where do those one nation prefs go once the PHON gets less than 50% of the primary vote?
And don’t say the liberals because you have no proof of that and if things are that bad the libs might even come third.
Transposing the failed states called the United States of America and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland into our superior governance model is pointless.
And furthermore Kiama has plenty of working class and the Shooters were the biggest brand name right wing party they got 5%.
Redbridge polls recently have got fleas need to be backed by other poll or two.
Wait till the public travel on the long delayed and $5 billion blowout opening of rail tunnel.
Have to slow down a lot to go under hospitals due to computer/medical device interference.
Corleone…both QLD and NSW at the State level are optional preferential voting systems. Additionally, voting in the Senate (particularly above the line) where only 6 preferences (numbered 1 to 6) are required mean the parties on the right (such as One Nation, Libertarian Party, Family First, Shooters Fishers Farmers Party, Australian Christians and Liberal National Party) can preference each other without any substantial preference leakage of note outside that group. At the last Fed election, the LNP overwhelmingly preferenced One Nation first ahead of other parties and likewise One Nation preferenced the LNP overwhelmingly ahead of other parties. The smaller right parties overwhelmingly preferenced each other and One Nation ahead of the LNP with the result being the parties of the Left and Extreme Left were entirely excluded in Senate voting. Furthermore, the preference flow of One Nation votes to the LNP drastically increased at the 2025 Fed election compared to the 2022 Fed election whilst at the same time One Nation’s primary vote also dramatically increased from 4.96% in 2022 to 6.40% in 2025 (and according to the polls since the May election One Nation’s primary vote has steadily increasesd each month to a range of 10%-12% in the latest polls rivalling the Greens as the third largest party and looking to surpass the Greens in a trend that seems to be accelerating as we move to Christmas 2025). The preference flow of One Nation votes to the LNP at the 2022 election was 61.3% but that increased substantially at the 2025 election to 74.5%. This data comes from the AEC. I believe as the next 12-24 months unfolds Australia will follow the trend to the populist right apparent across the UK,Europe and the USA (and now also appearing in Canada) and there will be a substantial increase in One Nation’s primary vote at the expense of both the Coalition and Labor Party (a significant number of the working class deserting Labor due to a number of reasons) resulting in the dissolution of the Coalition as the National Party realigns itself to One Nation and the minority right group within the Liberal Party align themselves with the National Party. There is a growing anger in the electorate at the establishment parties being the LNP, Labor and Greens. It is worth noting that most polls since the 2025 election indicate at best zero growth in the greens primary vote with 2 of the 3 most recent polls indicating a decline in the Greens primary vote from the 12.2% recorded in May 2025 to 11% in the past week.
The Victorian Liberals remain a basket case – Labor in Victoria ought to be beatable in 2026, but I bet the government hangs on for another term with a decreased majority.
I mean, if the Liberals are so bad they can’t even reduce the 2018 Danslide majority after two election cycles they should genuinely dissolve the entire state organisation and give someone else a go at being the opposition.
For Labor to not have a reduced majority this time would be defying political gravity to an insane degree. They SHOULD lose some votes. Even if Dan was still Premier. In government for over 10 years. Federal drag. Comm Games debacle. Debt problems. Premier with strong personal vote replaced by new Premier without the same personal connection to the people. There are so many fundamentals working against the state government to stay in power, AND YET.
pied piper at 11:25 am
have to slow down a lot to go under hospitals due to computer/medical device interference.
Electromagnetic interference with medical imaging equipment was detected during train testing, and it was stronger than anticipated. That’s why tests are conducted.
Even assuming trains might run a bit more slowly than planned past that point, it will be barely noticed by passengers. What they will notice is the greater ease of access to the hospital and university precincts afforded by the tunnel.
Once again the Libshitters finding fault. Always a whinge. Always a sook. Never build anything. Never try. Never fix problems you find.
The liberal way is the Abbott/Turnbull NBN way. If they can’t cancel it, ruin it. Defund it. Fuck with it. Fire the smart people, hire moronic demagogues. Make it worse, more expensive and take longer to build. Then whine about how it’s all Labor’s fault.
If they had their way, no-one would ever build a thing. Ever. Except Toll Roads like the East West Link. The LNP love them.
Group Ticket voting was only going to survive if it was going to benefit the government of the day at the next election. At the start of this term, it looked like it would due to the relatively high primary vote of Labor. However, at this stage it is looking less likely that the same levels will be achieved at the next election.
There is too much risk for Labor that they are either re-elected to government with a right wing crossbench blocking things in the upper house or the Liberals are elected with a safe path in the LC.
The biggest benefactors of a change will likely be the Greens. It will be a lot harder for the other minor parties to catch up to them if the preferences are not being coordinated. Both Labor and Liberal are also likely to get a seat or two more.
B. S. Fairman @ #14 Thursday, September 18th, 2025 – 6:53 pm
Yep, I didn’t agree with Labor maintaining group tickets but I suspect they went with it as they’d rather deal with a bunch of random indies than a block of greens. Now, with a diminished primary and a (likely) plethora of RWNJ candidates it’s expedient to pull the pin.
Hopefully, this give Fiona Pattern a path back.
Corio @ #12 Thursday, September 18th, 2025 – 6:18 pm
Don’t think there’s enough information to know the extent of the delay, but if you assume the trains need to travel at half speed for 200m, including the ramp down and ramp up, it’s less than 30 secs – it won’t be noticed.
Key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 4
Probably False 1
Definitely False 2
7 false keys needed for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 9
Probably True 2
Probably False 1
Definitely False 2
The train has to stop underneath the hospital anyway because that’s where the station is. It’s 1400 meters from the previous station. The max speed is meant to be 80 kmph. So between Arden Station and the Hospital station that 1400 meters… if they went instantly from 0 to 80 at both ends that would be 1 minute and 3 seconds.
Even if they had to go 40kmph on average like it was a car in a school zone that’s still only 2 minutes 6 seconds. Of which the “delay” would be measured in seconds.
What a fucking mountain out of a molehill.
Ghost Of Whitlam @ #19 Thursday, September 18th, 2025 – 8:04 pm
It’s a example of the way the ALP has benefited from 4 years terms. Long enough for reality rather than imagined catastrophes. The Liberal’s railing against the horrors of “Skyrail” was a similar failure.
Not to forget that the Liberals are going to send kids at risk to boot camps
The informed opinion of academics is that COVID saw kids who shun education and oppose social norms (emboldened by Trumpites no doubt) acting as if there are no laws
So try throwing them into boot camps – and where and for how long?
There’s also a very real chance of the Victorian Liberal party actually splitting before the election.
Before the Vic Lib state council, I recall there were rumours saying that if party president Phil Davis was re-elected (and he was, barely), then there would be moves to de-select Moira Deeming from her position as No.1 Liberal candidate for the Western Metropolitan province, and if they actually go through with that, it’ll be a bombshell moment, probably resulting in the creation of a new “Conservative Party of Victoria” where they take MP’s and Liberal Party political apparatus with them.
A split rivalling that of the Labor-DLP split in 1955. The energy for it is obvious to anyone watching, both sides are frenzied and clearly hate each other more than they hate Labor.
Rob, for all our sakes, do you think you could perhaps try to aquaint yourself with the concept of paragraphs.
I suspect the main reason this poll didn’t bother including One Nation as an option is because they are polling Victoria, where One Nation is basically a nonentity.
In any case, no matter how much the times may suit them (and I do actually agree that the present political climate is pretty fertile ground for such parties), One Nation are unlikely to achieve much more than the occasional senator or legislative council while Hanson remains in charge of the party. She is quite clearly an egomaniac incapable of leading a functional team, as evidenced by the way the vast majority of elected One Nation politicians end up splitting from the party on account of being unable to work with her, and that’s before we even get into the abysmal candidate vetting that inevitably leads to the party hilariously embarrassing themselves in pretty much every election they run in.
But, hey, I guess she can still count Malcolm Roberts and James Ashby as firm allies. Sure, one can’t even manage to send emails to the right address and the other was deluded and/or shitfaced enough to believe the NRA gives a shit about the electoral fortunes of minor far-right Australian political parties, but it’s, er… it’s something.
Unfortunately since One Nation’s vote does seem to be close to 10% in Victoria, that does run the risk of them winning seats in the Upper House, even if Group Ticket Voting is abolished.
If that turns out to be the case, if the One Nation vote is as high as the Greens vote, then they’ll be likely to elect many One Nation MLC’s. And that’ll suck big time.
Find a war @ #21 Thursday, September 18th, 2025 – 9:43 pm
That talk is probably coming from Jeff Kennett personally from his experience in compulsory National Service in the 1960’s and his determination to bring it back again and disregard the fact that it’s a different world from then.
Also hey there. I assume you’re a new poster?
“It’s a example of the way the ALP has benefited from 4 years terms. Long enough for reality rather than imagined catastrophes. The Liberal’s railing against the horrors of “Skyrail” was a similar failure.”
I remember this quote from back in the day prior to the 2018 election:
Liberal MP Inga Peulich predicted the project (Skyrail) would be Premier Daniel Andrews “Epitaph. It will be his tombstone.” she said.
Dan added 10 seats in the Assembly, 4 in the Council and old Inga who hated immigrants despite being one herself and hated anyone who didn’t accept her far-right opinions on the LGBT community, was turfed out when Labor won three seats in the South East zone and the last slot went on preferences to the Libertarians which must have hurt.
She died last year, having lived long enough to see Dan Andrews smash the LNP in yet another election and then stand down from the job without the LNP or the Murdoch rags landing a single hit on him for his entire career.
Vic govt need to get on top of the crime narrative
The msm have gone hard in the rising youth crime in victoria.
There are definitely problems with crime
Having said that, as stated previously. The majority of crime is in the tobacco war space.
Arson attacks and shootings between rivals etc
This all the resulting from federal policy regarding tobacco excise.
Recently Vic police and ABF have been able to charge several main players of this crime.
Let’s see what happens to the crime rate in Victoria going forward.
This poll just shows the tide still shifting (albeit slowly) back to Labor after hitting a low point in late 2024 / early 2025.
It also shows that the rebound in those first polls after the federal election probably weren’t just a sugar hit tied to the federal government’s honeymoon period, because for example, in the July-August Resolve series the Labor vote was 30 in July and 34 in August; and now with Redbridge the 2PP has increased (slightly) from 51.5 in July to 52 in September.
This is all before WGT and Metro Tunnel open too.
In short, the Liberals have a lot of work to do if they want to win government; even at the low point of Labor’s polling, the Libs picking up 17 seats would have been difficult (maybe 50/50 chance), and Labor have significantly rebounded since then.
Rob, your response was unreadable. And I don’t see how having OPV in Queensland or NSW is relevant.
On the train thing, it will only affect the typical commuter from the North West. Commuters from the South East will in all likelihood have mostly alighted from the train by Parkville, and those who are going there need the train to stop so whether it slows from 80 or 40 for the last few hundred metres is neither here nor there.
Even the hospital staff who raised the issue would have felt professionally obliged to point out the risk to medical procedures requiring radiation measurement, but were themselves never going to turn down having a station at their doors.
Anyone still complaining about the metro tunnel and the hospital equipment is basically admitting they have no idea whatsoever.
Firstly, the trains slowing down through Parkville only add about 20 seconds to the trip.
Since then, they’ve been running extremely regular test trains for the last couple of years with no real issue at the hospital.
But the biggest thing to note is that, when the story hit the media, it had already been fixed 6 months prior. Complete beat-up.
Billions blown out due to labor selling out to its union mates.
Victorian premier gone to the communist loan shark China to get into debt bondage.
Wait until the opening before believing lies the problems have been fixed.
pied piper must be a bot with a very primitive set of pre-loaded talking points
Pied Plopper sribbled, “Billions blown out due to labor selling out to its union mates.
Victorian premier gone to the communist loan shark China to get into debt bondage.
Wait until the opening before believing lies the problems have been fixed.”
You have no idea! You nut! The fascists will get smashed again. Wait until the next Tory takes a colleague to court. Lol.
“Vic govt need to get on top of the crime narrative”
Labor need to introduce that precog program from the documentary Minority Report. That’ll sort it right out.
Coreleone – unreadable? Only for those with questionable levels of critical thinking. Obviously beyond you. Stick with slogan shouting and when the future appears before you re:the slide to irrelevancy of the Political Class Establishment Parties (i.e. Labor, LNP, Greens) as has occurred in the UK, across Europe and increasingly in North America don’t complain you were not provided forewarning.
All those who cheer how wonderful Labor is doing at both Federal and Vic State Level need to open their eyes. A primary vote of 35% at Federal level and 32% at Vic State Level is a disaster and just one economic downturn away from extinction as the vote crumbles into the 20s and below. The LNP is no better and the Greens are just moving closer to sheer irrelevancy as they concentrate on their civil war between the red wing and the environmental wing. Apart from the Greens, anything to the left of the Labor Party is already extinct as evidenced by the vote at the May Federal election.
The political way is open to the populist right in Australia and there is a growing anger across multiple issues directed at the Political Class Establishment Parties who are viewed as serving their own interests at the expense of mainstream Australians. The first signs of an economic downturn are now being seen across Australia (as seen in the ABS employment numbers, business capital expenditure numbers, collapse in labour productivity growth and the unsustainable growth in Govt sector jobs accelerating Govt debt at both the Federal and State level). The next period of time to the 2028 election is likely to see a seismic shift in Australia’s voting patterns along the lines of the UK/Europe.
Rob
The problem with that theory is Australia’s preferential voting. If the liberal party split and a right leaning Conservative Party emerged, bringing together right leaning parties, it would win a handful of seats but Labor, Greens and Liberal preference swaps would stop the new Conservative Party from winning enough seats to be anything but a loud minor party.
If government can get crime issue addressed, they will be in good position to be re-elected.
I think they will, because problem was mainly caused by small number of offenders causing massive amounts of crime and keep getting bailed out.
Government made a mistake watering down bail laws in 2023 to prevent Aboriginal custody deaths. It has been a disaster. Just recently bail laws have tightened, gives time to get the situation under control.
Can’t overstate how much better it is for government that cost of living issues are also easing and rates are coming down. Uptick in property prices after very stagnant period and land tax increases is also good news; because it is the vibe.
Landlord of the year – what you are saying is possible but, I believe unlikely for the following reason.
The May fed election saw the LNP preference One Nation ahead of Labor, Teals and Greens in all seats in the House of Reps and Senate (Teals not standing in the senate). I see no world where the LNP will not preference One Nation ahead of Labor, Teals and Greens. A left leaning Liberal rump party would cease to exist as it would garner negligible votes as Liberal Party voters would not vote for that type of party and would migrate en masse to a successor right leaning party.
A portent of what is likely to come in Australia is the latest poll out of the UK which has Reform UK on 34%, Labour Party on 16%, Conservative Party on 16%, Liberal Democrats on 13%, Greens on 12%. The trend to Reform (and against both Labour and Conservatives) since the last election has been steady with no end to that trend in sight.
According to ElectionMapsUK under the first past the post system Reform are now forecast to win 457 seats, the Liberal Democrats become the Official Opposition Party on 52 seats. The Labour Party is reduced to just 44 seats and Conservative Party reduced to just 19 seats.
A preferential voting system along Australian lines would not alter the above outcome as Conservative Party voters would en masse preference Reform ahead of Labour, a sizeable proportion of Labour voters would preference Reform ahead of Conservatives and a large number of Liberal Democrat voters would preference Reform ahead of both Labour and Conservative. In fact it is not beyond the realms of possibility that preferential voting in the UK on these poll numbers would effectively wipeout both Labour and Conservatives from parliament entirely.
All the signs are pointing to similar trends in Australia. If One Nation reaches approx 14%-16% primary vote in the polls by Feb 2026 then I believe it is safe to say the trend to One Nation will continue all the way to the 2028 election particularly now that an economic downturn in Australia is appearing in the economic data. The LNP coalition will blow itself apart over net zero before 2028 as both National Party MPs/voters and Liberal voters/minority of Lib MPs do not support net zero. A rump pro-net zero Liberal parliamentary party would be wiped out at the 2028 election.
Hey Rob, per your comments about the U.K., that recent primary for Reform is more than Labour and the Tories combined, for the first time.
In your opinion, what is driving this push to the populist right.
It was evident in the US around the time of the Tea party formation (circa. 2009-11) and had seeds in the U.K around Brexit time. Now they (Reform) have consolidated their vote > 30%.
Also, back to Oz, is it the same international forces pushing the PHON vote up?
Nadia88 – there are a number of issues driving growing support for the Populist Right across Uk, Europe (eg France, Germany and Italy), US and now in Canada and Australia. These issues (and they are numerous and some are country specific) and have been simmering for a number of years without any resolution. They are fueling a deep and growing dislike, dissatisfaction , discontent with the Political Establishment Ruling Class who are seen by many (and appears to be a growing number) everyday people as imposing a Leftist Authoritarian Ideology (via parliamentary legislation, big spending govt/high taxation/ high Govt debt economic policy, net zero climate policy, the courts, police, education, gender identity, high immigration) on society.
We are seeing the same forces at work in Australia. It is very similar to Newton’s Third Law where for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Essentially, people do not appreciate being told how to speak, how to think, what to believe and how to behave by a ruling class which appears to not follow the same rules and appear to have no intention of following the same rules. In other words hypocrisy writ large.
In my view, we are only at the beginning of this growing swing to the Populist Right which will accelerate as economic conditions in Australia deteriorate. In Australia, the Fed Govt has forecast (at the last Fed budget) Budget Deficits for each of the next 10 years due to excessive govt spending with accelerating levels of Fed Govt debt requiring ever higher levels of taxation to fund interest payments on that growing debt level. Budget deficits can only be funded by Govt borrowing from debt markets. An economic downturn which Australia now appears to be entering will blow apart Fed Govt (and State Govt) finances pushing people to further support the Populist Right.
An additional negative impact upon Australia’s economy for the foreseeable future is the fact China’s economy is in the process of imploding due to excessive debt levels at both the household, corporate and Local Govt (equivalent to our State Govts) level, overcapacity in the manufacturing sector, collapse of the entire property/construction sector, deflation, demographic collapse. China’s banking system (which is controlled by the Communist State) is essentially insolvent due to debts which will not be repaid. China has made the same economic mistakes as the Soviet Union and is imploding in the same manner. This will smash Australia’s net export sector income further negatively pressuring both Fed Govt and State Govt budgetary positions.
Rob you’ve convinced yourself clearly
Are those goal posts you’re moving heavy?
We started by arguing whether specifically PHON is polling well NOW and now you’re talking apocalypses in your mind, Australia in ruins and some non-specific right wing party doing well at this future date.
Which might be, who knows Putin might pollute the world with nuclear fallout and Trump might put us all in rags. But that won’t show up on a Victorian opinion poll right now, especially under the PHON banner, as they have never done very well here.
And to get elected in an actual election, you know the things we have when we aren’t handing out wheat bags to millions of starving Australians après la guerre, you need a party infrastructure, and for all their faults, the Libs still at least have one.
Phon would need to pick up specifically Labor seats – not Liberal not National. And the safety margins apply whether Labor’s opponent is LNP or another right wing party.
And I’m supposed to believe all these heathen Chinese and Indian voters who apparently ‘shouldn’t be here’ are going to vote for PHON or whatever fasc party replaces them, when Agenda Item 1 is their ‘remigration’?
This apocalypse you fanaticise about is only destroying the USA and UK after decades of self-inflicted wounds, ones we haven’t done and hopefully never will.
Thanks Rob @ 2.19 pm
It’s interesting the causal factors pushing PHON, and I suppose the populist right in parts of the world.
A lot of posters here and nonPB commentators are sort of adamant that the Australian ranked choice system would negate a populist right party gaining a foothold here. Having said that, it can be argued that PHON already has a foothold here, recommencing with the 2016 election, and she’s achieved this through the FPV system.
We’ll see how it pans out this cycle. Thks for your response too.
Corleone – the most recent figures for PHON in Vic I can see are 9% on the Resolve Political Monitor dated 14-Sep-2025.
Link here: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Click the “Federal” button first, and then scroll down to the section “Which party No.1 etc etc”, &
then click on the respective state tabs.
* 9% “federally for PHON” in Victoria
* 11% in QLD, &
* 16% in NSW
Rob says:
Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 12:24 pm
…
All the signs are pointing to similar trends in Australia.
…’
=================
Not factual. This statement is inconsistent with bludger track. But nice try.
Coreleone – your are completely incoherent and stamping your foot in a childish tantrum. The trend is slapping you in the face very hard and many people with vastly more knowledge than you have taken notice of the trend and are attempting to decipher its meaning.
Simply because you do not like the trend is completely irrelevant and facile. You appear to not possess much knowledge about the world you live in and seem surprised and angry when your dear assumptions disappear in a puff of smoke. I would suggest you concentrate on an education of the world we actually live in today rather than some fantasy world of indoctrination and slogan shouting.
What happens on the right of politics in Australia over the period of time to the 2028 election is fluid and volatile. There are 2 certainties at present (1) One Nation has substantially increased its primary vote nationwide since the May election to a point today where it would have the same representation in the Senate as the Greens. (2) The LNP will split in some form over the issue of net zero under pressure from both the National Party and right Liberal MPs opposition to net zero and One Nation’s opposition to net zero. Andrew Hastie has stated last week that his opposition to net zero is a minority position in the Liberal Party room.
I really do not care whether you accept the above or not. It is that leftist stick your head in the sand, whilst shouting moronic slogans in an echo chamber and hope it goes away mentality which will lead to your worst nightmares actually occurring.
‘…
A seasoned Liberal strategist said Advance’s messages were “problematic” for the party because you “cannot win from the margins”.
…’
==================
How about the Advance messages being problematic because they stir up FUD along with racist divisions?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/20/liberal-mps-speak-up-about-disturbing-advance-anti-immigration-campaign
Boerwar – to say the opinion polls are wrong is the height of idiocy and arrogance. Even Wikipedia has a graphic of federal polling since the May election displaying the inexorable primary vote rise of One Nation since May and the fall in primary vote support for the LNP, Greens and Labor since the first post election poll taken in May where the poll recorded Labor 37% primary vote, LNP 31% primary vote, Greens 11.5% primary vote and One Nation 6% primary vote. We are only 4 months since the Fed election and One Nation has almost doubled its vote to a range of 10%-12% according to the latest 3 polls.
The next 2-3 years are going to be very hard for you if you continue to close your eyes and stamp your feet in frustration that people are not doing what you demand them to do.
Rob says:
Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 3:55 pm
…
What happens on the right of politics in Australia over the period of time to the 2028 election is fluid and volatile. There are 2 certainties at present (1) One Nation has substantially increased its primary vote nationwide since the May election to a point today where it would have the same representation in the Senate as the Greens.
…’
===================
Certainty? Yeah. Nah.
There has been not voting since the May election. So your reference to ‘voting’ is incorrect. PHON polling has gone up. But its polling was grossly over-estimated before the May election and you can’t be certain that it is not doing exactly the same thing now. But nice try.
China collapse has been about to happen imminently for the last 50 years.