The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday carried the latest bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result of state voting intention in New South Wales, combining 1000 responses from the state out of the last two monthly national polls. Coming in the wake of Labor’s win in Saturday’s Kiama by-election, it found Labor with a steady primary vote of 38% while the Coalition slipped four to 28%, the Greens also slipping three to 10%. The generic independents category was up three to 11%, and others were up two to 12%. No two-party preferred was provided, but conventional preference flows would have got Labor to a lead upwards of 59-41. Chris Minns’ lead as preferred premier was out from 35-16 to 37-16.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of NSW state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
59-41 is about 11 points too low for Labor imo. Australia is moving toward the light while the rest of the world moves toward fear and the rejection of reason.
Kelli Sloane is a Moderate. IF she becomes Opposition Leader will the Conservatives in NSW undermine her too? Or will they let her be the same way they let Gladys be because they realised she was so popular with the electorate? I have my doubts the feral way the Conservatives are behaving these days.
C@tmomma, they would need some pretty strong evidence she IS as personally popular as Gladys was before they cut her any slack, I think. The conservative base of the Liberal Party appears to be in jihad mode (on climate and immigration especially), so I think their default will be hostility until they are convinced she can deliver them the goods (ie, office).
From the March 2023 election, this gives:
Labor +1
Coalition -7
Greens 0
Pity there’s no One Nation result here. I suspect they are travelling somewhat better than the 1.8% they got at the election.
Definitely True 8
Probably True 3
Probably False 2
Definitely False 1
7 false keys needed for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 2
Probably False 1
Definitely False 1
With opv this is close to the actual
Kiama result
The right of the NSW Liberal Party, led by Alistair Henskens, has been undermining and leaking against Mark Speakman for months, they won’t want Kelly Sloan taking over any time before the March 2027 election.
The problem for the Liberals is that they lost 2 seats on the Northern Beaches part of Sydney to Teal candidates at the last election and since then, and they could easily lose Willougby and Davidson to independents in 2027. And based on the May federal election results, Liberal marginal seats like Ryde and Holsworthy and Epping are winnable for Labor next time.
Minns is a nice bloke and he has some good performers in this cabinet – Daniel Mookey, Paul Scully, John Graham especially. He’s a solid sort of Premier, very much in the Peter Malinaukas mode.
And Miranda is another seat Minns could pick up in 2027, especially if Simon Earl runs again – he almost won it in 2023.
Miranda and Oatley, being in the same neck of the woods as Kogarah, might get a flow-on effect from the popularity of Chris Minns at the next election. Is Mark Coure in Oatley safe? Oatley has been Liberal since 2011 but before that it was marginal, iirc.
Democracy Sausage has raised (I think) an interesting side issue. How many seats where Teals are possibly going to unseat Libs could actually go direct to Labor – either based on real voter intention or simply on the electoral arithmetic?
I think this is a danger as the Libs get more extreme. It’s a version of Greens versus Labor in the left leaning seats but in this case it is Minns/Malinaukas or even Albo being centrist enough to pick up those seats directly.
Any non-Labor seat held by less than 2% is up for grabs with Minns/Albo on board and the Liberals “superior economic management” bullshit completely losing any effect it had on the increasingly significant millennial & gen z populations. Ryde seems to be a certain pickup, it’s been swinging to Labor every election since 2011 (with a 2pp of 24.3) and is now only held by 0.1%. Holsworthy might go Labor for the first time in it’s short history.
It’s probably a good idea for the Greens and Labor to step out of the Pittwater seat again, to help Jacqui Scruby retain the seat as a Teal, following her win after a by-election caused by yet another Liberal being charged with sex offences.
Oatley, Terrigal, Goulburn & Winston Hills could all flip with a good election campaign.
Tweed could very easily be taken off the Nationals. The Nats only retained the seat in 2023 because too many people who primary voted the three minor left parties and sustainable australia exhausted their vote instead of preferencing Labor, or ended up preferencing the Nationals over Labor. It wouldn’t even necessarily require a primary swing to Labor.
On the Teal side, you’re probably looking at the less bogan/new rich Liberal voting areas. Epping is an interesting case because Labor didn’t stand in the Perrottet by-election that had the Liberals win a 69/31 2PP vs the Greens (compared to 55/45 vs Labor in 2023). There’s a significant Chinese heritage community in Epping (who voted a combined 15% primary for the two Chinese heritage independents) which might be enough to tip the seat away from the Liberals (and that could be to Labor or a Teal) if the right candidate can be found.
Newy Boy Wed 17th @7:23.
I suspect that much of the 7 point drop in the Coalition vote since the last election might have gone to One Nation, given that the movement to Labor + Green was only +1 and One Nation seem to be surging.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-23/nsw-sydney-trains-communication-issues-new-report/105806734, I reckon this one is easy, just make pollyTICs and their staffers take public transport for a parliamentary term, meanwhile the cars can be deployed to WSI which on start-up will only be reachable by air/ road;
Hydrogen/ electrify remaining buses inside the Sydney equivalent of the road to hell;
Next once the metro to Parramatta is in, by way of sites that even Google declined, rip out one of the parallel tracks to Penrith; replace it by nothing unlike Japanse or French, dig it down so noise can be managed and use them for urban fast rail;
Subsequently drop tolls on the various tunnels, and take two lanes off Parramatta Road for more light rail/ trams to go past all them retailers on the ground floor, units aboves;
Then add fast rail from Cains to Brisbane by way of another airport city near Goulburn to Adelaide to Perth; including holistic, sustainable, regional development