Three big new poll results, a recurring theme being a surge in support for One Nation at the Coalition’s expense:
• The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead out from 56-44 to 58-42, with the Coalition recording its worst primary vote in the history of the series, which goes back to 1985. Labor is steady at 36%, with the Coalition down three to 27%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 10%. Both leaders’ personal ratings have deteriorated: Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 50%, while Sussan Ley is down three to 32% and up five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.
• Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from a blowout 59-41 to 55-45. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down two), Coalition 27% (down two), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 12% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up one on approval (or to be precise, good plus very good on “performance in recent weeks”) to 44% and steady on disapproval (poor plus very poor) at 45%; Sussan Ley is up three on both, to 41% and 32%; and Albanese leads 38-26 on preferred prime minister, in from 41-26. The biggest movements on the breakdowns are by gender, with Labor down seven among women to 31% and up three among men to 39%, last month’s result being clearly the more orthodox of the two. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1800.
• The Financial Review yesterday brought its second RedBridge Group poll since the election, the first having been in late June, which has Labor at 35% (down two), the Coalition on 30% (down one), the Greens on 11% (steady) and One Nation on 11% (up two). Labor’s headline two-party lead of 53.5-46.5 is their weakest in any poll since the election, but it’s partly down to respondent-allocated preference flows: applying flows from the election would have it at about 54.5-45.5. The poll had a long field work period, from August 19 to September 8, and a big sample of 5326. Breakdowns by age cohort, gender and location consequently have some meat on their bones: the biggest movement is a seven-point shift form Labor to the Greens among “Gen-Z”, which I take to mean 18-to-34, putting them at 38% and 31% with the Coalition on just 18%. UPDATE: Full report here, including breakdowns for the four biggest states.
The other big story on the polling front of late has been the emphasis placed by now former Coalition front-bencher Jacinta Price on a suggestion by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group that Labor’s two-party vote among the Indian dispora might be as high as 85%. Samaras later clarified that a “more appropriate characterisation” would have it in the “mid-60s”. This would seem consistent with some more robust data points that have been doing the rounds since:
• The Co-operative Election Survey from before the May election gave Labor a primary vote advantage over the Coalition of 45% to 34% among those of “south Asian” ethnic identity.
• A survey of Indian-origin residents conducted by YouGov for the Carnegie Institute before the 2022 election had it at 43% to 26%, translating to about 47% to 29% upon exclusion of the 9% uncommitted. The former had a national sample of 4012, which presumably encompassed a south Asian sub-sample of about 300, while the latter had a sample of 800.
• Roy Morgan has aggregated its polling among respondents born in India and China going back to mid-2023, which finds both distinctive as major party voters as well as leaning to Labor. Compared with a Morgan average over the period that I calculate at Labor 31.9%, Coalition 36.2%, Greens 13.1% and One Nation 5.5%, the result among Indian-born respondents is Labor 45%, Coalition 39%, Greens 8% and One Nation 2%, which I estimate to be about 56-44 to Labor on two-party preferred; and among Chinese-born respondents, Labor 48%, Coalition 34%, Greens 11% and One Nation 1%, which I make at 61-39. There were 1332 respondents in the Indian-born sample and 738 in the Chinese.
The Liberals coal burners and the Greens NIMBIES would most likely have blocked them. Like Trump. Like Joyce and Canavan want to do now. Like Brown of Robben Island. etc, etc, etc.
Ven
I’m sorry, I only just got to your post about the Jewish community in India.
They flourished for a long time in Kerala, as did Christians. After independence in 1947, they suffered from a bit of petty discrimination by the government and most of those living in Cochin moved to Israel. There are still a few thousand scattered around the place. There are synagogues in the largest cities and, while I lived in Ahmedabad, I met a friend of a friend who was Jewish: one out of a community of four, all members of his family. They seemed to have decided that they felt more Indian than Jewish.
I think it’s fair to say that the Jewish people have made a disproportionate contribution relative to their size in many fields of human endeavour: particularly literature, music, film making and most academic pursuits, including science. But I don’t know why you’d want to single out Paul Wolfowitz for a special mention: he was one of the leading lights on the ship of fools that took the US into the Gulf War.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:03 pm
The Liberals coal burners and the Greens NIMBIES would most likely have blocked them. Like Trump. Like Joyce and Canavan want to do now. Like Brown of Robben Island. etc, etc, etc.
__________________________________________________
Yep, Ms. Ley was a blocker.
Tony Abbott on fire at CPAC, selling the ‘fresh’ vision to win over young Australians:
Obsessing over flags, whacking immigrants, compulsory Australia Day rituals, forced patriotism, a nod to White Australia, and declaring the nation Christian.
That will win over Gen Z.
Milo Tullysays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:14 pm
because Labor’s internal disfunction in 2010 got Nothing done for more than a Decade…
FTFY
People can praise or criticise the current government as they see fit, but stooges remaining in denial for 15 years are only fooling themselves.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:17 pm
The Greens started it by opposing carbon pricing over 15 years ago.
– – – – – – – – –
The Greens supported carbon pricing over 15 years ago.
People can praise or criticise the current government as they see fit, but stooges remaining in denial for 15 years are only fooling themselves.
I oppose carbon pricing today, because all we did last time was turn onshore emissions into offshore emissions.
Fastwheels: “Tony Abbott on fire at CPAC, selling the ‘fresh’ vision to win over young Australians:
Obsessing over flags, whacking immigrants, compulsory Australia Day rituals, forced patriotism, a nod to White Australia, and declaring the nation Christian.
That will win over Gen Z.”
——————————————————————————–
As someone said on Insiders this morning, the Nats and the right wing of the Liberal Party collectively seem to believe that, if they can just get rid of Ley and agree to net zero and the other crap they want, then they’ll sail through to victory in the next election. But there aren’t anywhere near enough voters who want that BS.
As I have posted before, they seem to have overlooked the fact that Australia has compulsory voting, which means that everyone who wanted that agenda would have voted for the Coalition at the last election, when they won less than 32 per cent of the total vote. By the time we get to the next election, the demographics are likely to have shifted further against the Coalition, as their core voter base tends to be older on average. And, thanks to Jacinta Price, migrant voters probably aren’t going to be particularly keen on the Libs either.
It’s quite bizarre to watch. Reports of Canavan’s speech today are pretty cringe-inducing too. These people don’t have a clue.
I suspect Millenials (Gen Y) and Generation Z don’t give a flying duck about what happened 15 years ago.
They know CC is an existential crisis and will hold current governments responsible for weak action.
Same goes for Generation Alpha who will be able to vote, 2038-2043.
Party loyalty to the major parties is trending down. Voter volatility is all the go.
Tony Abbott and the rest of CPAC seem to think that the Australian Gen Z is the same as the American Gen Z where they fall into watching the far-right dudebro online movement.
That doesn’t seem to be the case.
Kirsdarke: “Tony Abbott and the rest of CPAC seem to think that the Australian Gen Z is the same as the American Gen Z where they fall into watching the far-right dudebro online movement.
That doesn’t seem to be the case.”
———————————————————————————-
Even in America, I think Gen Z swings to the left on average. Albeit that many of them don’t vote.
Poll Bludger’s Bludger track shows the 18-34 age group are currently 33 ALP, 18 LNP, 31 Green.
That’s where Swan’s next generation of Whitlam activists are hiding.
———–
Nadia 88 – right on cue – I just logged on to see if we had some polling.
“In 2050, I’ll be 46. These climate targets abandon my generation”
Nice of The Age to forget to include that Anjali Sharma is only prominent because the Greens Political Party likes pushing her for astroturfing purposes.
Once again the Greens are working with the hard-right to attack Labor, the only electable left wing Party in Australia.
“Most of these projects would have entered the approvals queue before Labor was in power.”
Do you have any evidence of this?
‘Pegasus says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:19 pm
I suspect Millenials (Gen Y) and Generation Z don’t give a flying duck about what happened 15 years ago.
…’
===============
Greens do do a good Pontius Pilate.
It shows that most outputs (economic output i assume?) went up to me, the argument against carbon pricing was that it was gonna destroy the economy. Instead I see the opposite.
Manufacturing output going down is hardly a new phenomena in Australia and wouldn’t want to attribute that to the carbon price alone.
‘meher baba says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:17 pm
…’
============
Apparently there were references to doing a repeat of the Voice. Dutton was deluded about this going into the last campaign. There is definitely a far right bubble mentality.
Embedding a carbon price in tourism travel and in meat, wool and dairy products would have a large economic impact.
All the main parties are struggling for membership, so Wayne Swan take is not unique. The Nationals & Liberals are shrinking as their members die off; one of the biggest expenses of local branches is sending flowers to members funerals. Even the Green’s membership appears to have topped out and is heading in a negative direction.
One of the reasons that people are not becoming members is they don’t see being a member as important. As a party member you seem to have any power over the direction of the party.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:08 pm
In 2050, I’ll be 46. These climate targets abandon my generation
…. .. ………
If my arithmetic is correct you are now about 21. You are probably old enough to understand realpolitik, though perhaps you have never heard of it.
Your ideology is, imo, impeccable. The best you and I can hope for is that our country helps demonstrate to other countries that going net zero does not lead to economic/political disintegration. Because we both know that what happens in Australia will not, except as an example, affect global warming.
When, in 2007-13 we had a government anxious that your generation not be abandoned in 2050, that government was promptly voted out, mainly because it was seen to go too far to assist your generation at the expense of then.
Any government that wants to help your generation in 2050 must be mindful of those voting now. Any sense that, dog help us, power prices might rise because transition to renewables is met with outcry. Go too fast, ie increase the cost noticeably, and all those voters who claim to want to see more done on climate change will be revolting on the streets with ditch the Albo signs, or something equally as witty. And your generation will know abandonment.
nadia88 @ #2186 Sunday, September 21st, 2025 – 7:41 pm
From direct experience at several branches, over the years, I’d suggest that it’s because of the average age of the current cohort. We are too damn old.
meher baba @ #2211 Sunday, September 21st, 2025 – 8:23 pm
Ah, that’s a good point.
I had noted that a lot of my Gen Z American friends online really just didn’t turn up to vote. They had their usual excuses, “I don’t live in a swing state so it doesn’t matter”, “I refuse to vote for Genocide Joe”, “I can’t stand in line for 5 hours on a Tuesday, I have a job”, “It’s not like it’ll change much anyway.”
Now if circumstances had changed that they could vote on a Saturday and have the option of prepoll, postal or absent voting, could use “ranked-choice” voting as they call it over there, and if they refuse to turn up, pay up a $20 fine, things would have probably turned out differently.
GoW
““Most of these projects would have entered the approvals queue before Labor was in power.”
Do you have any evidence of this?”
_________________________________________________
“The federal environmental process, which new minister Murray Watt is promising to reform within the next 18 months, is even worse: 27 renewable energy projects were deemed EPBC controlled actions in 2023 and 49 in 2024, but none had been approved by early August.”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-energy-faces-existential-challenge-as-solar-and-battery-hybrids-beat-it-on-costs/
there’s also been a sizable drop in ALP members in Victoria since the thousands Somyurek paid for were struck off.
Political party efforts at membership recruitment can be poor, maybe Labor is a bit better than the Liberals.
Nadia 88
About 15 years ago Rodney Cavalier guessed that the number of fully paying members in NSW was under 1,000.
Swan’s 55,000 members includes many ghosts or as yabba suggests many well past retirement age.
Nicksays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:28 pm
I oppose carbon pricing today, because all we did last time was turn onshore emissions into offshore emissions.
It shows that most outputs (economic output i assume?) went up to me, the argument against carbon pricing was that it was gonna destroy the economy. Instead I see the opposite.
Manufacturing output going down is hardly a new phenomena in Australia and wouldn’t want to attribute that to the carbon price alone.
_____________________
See the three biggest increases:
– coal mining
– gas extraction and exports
– Iron ore mining
Also, if manufacturing declined, it meant it didn’t get more efficient, we just imported more stuff from China.
Watching CPAC just confirms the Liberal Party should split or accept a very long time in opposition.
MABWM says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:23 pm
Poll Bludger’s Bludger track shows the 18-34 age group are currently 33 ALP, 18 LNP, 31 Green.
That’s where Swan’s next generation of Whitlam activists are hiding.
———–
Nadia 88 – right on cue – I just logged on to see if we had some polling.
=======================
No, no polling tonight. Morgan is probably the next one due, tomorrow around 5pm’ish.
They are doing monthly samples now around the 5000 mark, as opposed to the weekly “bouncy” polls they did last year. They are also providing state samples too, which is good.
I’m waiting for YouGov to drop – they can’t be far off. But not tonight with YouGov.
Also at the rate that this is going, the November 2026 midterm election ballot papers look like this, only in English.
“Do you vote for the proposed changes to the Constitution of the United States of America under the Constitutional Convention and do you vote for the party of our leader President Donald J. Trump?”
With the ballot papers secretly tagged so they can track down everyone who votes “No” and send them to a camp.
Seat warmer LEY turns men old and young against libs and anything with testosterone running in the other direction.Newspoll.
Kirk’s funeral soon.
”
meher babasays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:05 pm
Ven
I’m sorry, I only just got to your post about the Jewish community in India.
They flourished for a long time in Kerala, as did Christians. After independence in 1947, they suffered from a bit of petty discrimination by the government and most of those living in Cochin moved to Israel. There are still a few thousand scattered around the place. There are synagogues in the largest cities and, while I lived in Ahmedabad, I met a friend of a friend who was Jewish: one out of a community of four, all members of his family. They seemed to have decided that they felt more Indian than Jewish.
I think it’s fair to say that the Jewish people have made a disproportionate contribution relative to their size in many fields of human endeavour: particularly literature, music, film making and most academic pursuits, including science. But I don’t know why you’d want to single out Paul Wolfowitz for a special mention: he was one of the leading lights on the ship of fools that took the US into the Gulf War
”
meherbaba
I agree that he was one of the leading lights along with Bill Krystol, Krauthhammer and few more who took IS into the Gulf war.
But the thing is he was one, who articulated and convinced Republican elite with the vision of Pan Americana and the destruction of seven countries — Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran — in five years.
He was one of best influencers of Republican party in 90s and 2000s
Whether that is the right thing or not for US is another story.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfowitz_Doctrine
With party memberships, I think Boer belled the cat upthread.
A lot of younger people are simply not “joiners”.
When I say “younger people” I’m talking about Gen x and younger. They just don’t “join up” with groups like their older peers used to.
It’s probably easier for “younger people” to hyperventilate in front of a keyboard {and then press “enter”}, than it is to attend a branch meeting and discuss policy. Sad, but I think it’s true.
In rhetoric only. Their actions have spoken volumes over the years in opposing action on AGW.
Interestingly, the Greens appear to have done more for Palestine than they have for carbon pollution by making Gaza a signature issue of theirs, over and above the environment.
Gosh. 5 minutes after I said no polls, and we’ve got some sort of a newspoll.
Kirsdarke or HH, are you online?
Numbers please.
OK. It looks like Albo has fallen into negative territory on the net sat.
Very rare that there are 2 Newspolls in 2 consecutive weeks.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
Quarterly Newspoll figures out tonight – these are combined breakdowns of previously released polls ***not a new Newspoll***
B. S. Fairman says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:34 pm
All the main parties are struggling for membership, so Wayne Swan take is not unique. The Nationals & Liberals are shrinking as their members die off; one of the biggest expenses of local branches is sending flowers to members funerals. Even the Green’s membership appears to have topped out and is heading in a negative direction.
One of the reasons that people are not becoming members is they don’t see being a member as important. As a party member you seem to have any power over the direction of the party.
It’s difficult to get people to ‘join’ anything in the traditional sense. Labor are able to recruit new, young members and have a large though somewhat nebulous group of past members and supporters who can be called on during elections. In WA the Reactionaries and their Labor-phobic chums, the Greens, have barely any members at all.
In this respect it’s fair to say there is a high degree of political alienation at work. Voters vote, but they expect to have almost nothing to do with policy formation. My own experience in Labor differs from this. It’s always possible for rank and file members to originate text that can eventually translate into policy.
Men are abandoning Sussan Ley, and the Coalition has slumped to new lows among younger Australians and in the big east coast states – with only 25 per cent of voters in NSW now supporting the Liberals and Nationals.
An exclusive state-by-state and demographic Newspoll analysis reveals how support for the Coalition has tanked at an unprecedented pace to a record low primary vote since Peter Dutton hit a peak of 40 per cent in November last year.
The quarterly analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted between July 14 and September 11, covering a combined sample size of 3811 voters, shows the gender gap between men and women has been erased with an even split of 29 per cent of men and women voters supporting the Coalition.
Quarterly snapshots from December last year and March this year showed higher levels of male voter support for Mr Dutton’s Coalition, with about 40 per cent of men backing the Coalition compared with 38 per cent of women.
As support for the Coalition plunged ahead of the May 3 election, an April Newspoll analysis showed 38 per cent of men and 33 per cent of women backed the Liberal and Nationals.
The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen most in the older voter category but has dropped to grim levels among young Australians aged between 18 and 34.
Compared with the March quarterly analysis when 28 per cent of younger voters supported the Coalition, the September snapshot reveals only 18 per cent now back the Liberals and Nationals. This result puts the Coalition behind Labor at 36 per cent, the Greens at 26 per cent and a combined primary vote for independents, minor parties and One Nation at 20 per cent.
While Mr Dutton battled to secure support from women, Ms Ley is facing her own challenge winning over men and voters in NSW, Victoria and Queensland who swung hard late to Anthony Albanese’s Labor in key Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seats.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation%2Fpolitics%2Fnewspoll-men-young-voters-desert-coalition%2Fnews-story%2Fa4900d97e061d1e17f19af7cde5db432?amp
The Liberals should split. The Right can merge with the Nationals and One Nation to form a new Right-Far Right party which they could call “Australian Conservatives”, “Australian Patriots”, “Reform Australia” or similar. Or maybe the DLP (“Democratic Liberal Party”). In fact they could absorb the DLP too if its recent revived version still exists.
That leaves the Moderates. They could sit as independents or form a new party of their own. They could pick a snazzy name like “Enterprise Australia” or similar. They could be an actual Liberal, business-friendly party. They would find business backers. Maybe some of the Teals would join.
It would be a bit too much to hope that Reform Australia would shrivel and die, but maybe they can be kept to the fringes.
nadia88 @ #2234 Sunday, September 21st, 2025 – 8:55 pm
I’m afraid I don’t have access to News Corp papers, just Nine-Fairfax articles.
Newspoll: Men, young voters desert Ley-led Coalition.
Maybe Tony Abbott can be persuaded to stand for Warringah
25% for the Libs in NSW.
No wonder Kiama fell to Labor last weekend.
No worries Kirsdarke. I thought you had access one time a while back. No probs!
A Resolve poll confirms the bleeding obvious:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-say-the-young-are-victims-of-intergenerational-bastardry-20250919-p5mwgl.html
Green shoots for the Coalition. They’ve addressed the gender gap.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 9:06 pm
Men are abandoning Sussan Ley, and the Coalition has slumped to new lows among younger Australians and in the big east coast states – with only 25 per cent of voters in NSW now supporting the Liberals and Nationals.
25%.
This will soon be thought of as an aspirational high. The Reactionaries are doubling down on their past mistakes. Hastie has identified himself as a runner for the leadership, and is echoing every lunatic hard Right stupidity.
They clearly have no idea what most common-or-garden voters are thinking/wanting/believing/supporting. Such delusions. Doubtless, the original Lib-imbecile, Tony Abbott, has been pumping up Hastie’s tyres. Abbott, who could not hold one of the bluest of blue seats!
25%…one in four voters still support the idiot party. This cannot last. Single figures cannot be far off.
So the Libs have gone from Men 40, Women 38 during the Dutton maximum polling period. Then down to 38 Men, 33 Women at election. Now down to 29 each.
I’m sure the far-right of the Party will be quick to whine about how they need a man back in charge but I doubt Ley being a woman has anything to do with it.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:51 pm
Seat warmer LEY turns men old and young against libs and anything with testosterone running in the other direction.Newspoll.
Kirk’s funeral soon.
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He used up his 15 minutes of fame last week. There is pretty much none left for the funeral.
25% in Australia’s largest state is nothing short of catastrophic