Three big new poll results, a recurring theme being a surge in support for One Nation at the Coalition’s expense:
• The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead out from 56-44 to 58-42, with the Coalition recording its worst primary vote in the history of the series, which goes back to 1985. Labor is steady at 36%, with the Coalition down three to 27%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 10%. Both leaders’ personal ratings have deteriorated: Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 50%, while Sussan Ley is down three to 32% and up five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.
• Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from a blowout 59-41 to 55-45. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down two), Coalition 27% (down two), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 12% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up one on approval (or to be precise, good plus very good on “performance in recent weeks”) to 44% and steady on disapproval (poor plus very poor) at 45%; Sussan Ley is up three on both, to 41% and 32%; and Albanese leads 38-26 on preferred prime minister, in from 41-26. The biggest movements on the breakdowns are by gender, with Labor down seven among women to 31% and up three among men to 39%, last month’s result being clearly the more orthodox of the two. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1800.
• The Financial Review yesterday brought its second RedBridge Group poll since the election, the first having been in late June, which has Labor at 35% (down two), the Coalition on 30% (down one), the Greens on 11% (steady) and One Nation on 11% (up two). Labor’s headline two-party lead of 53.5-46.5 is their weakest in any poll since the election, but it’s partly down to respondent-allocated preference flows: applying flows from the election would have it at about 54.5-45.5. The poll had a long field work period, from August 19 to September 8, and a big sample of 5326. Breakdowns by age cohort, gender and location consequently have some meat on their bones: the biggest movement is a seven-point shift form Labor to the Greens among “Gen-Z”, which I take to mean 18-to-34, putting them at 38% and 31% with the Coalition on just 18%. UPDATE: Full report here, including breakdowns for the four biggest states.
The other big story on the polling front of late has been the emphasis placed by now former Coalition front-bencher Jacinta Price on a suggestion by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group that Labor’s two-party vote among the Indian dispora might be as high as 85%. Samaras later clarified that a “more appropriate characterisation” would have it in the “mid-60s”. This would seem consistent with some more robust data points that have been doing the rounds since:
• The Co-operative Election Survey from before the May election gave Labor a primary vote advantage over the Coalition of 45% to 34% among those of “south Asian” ethnic identity.
• A survey of Indian-origin residents conducted by YouGov for the Carnegie Institute before the 2022 election had it at 43% to 26%, translating to about 47% to 29% upon exclusion of the 9% uncommitted. The former had a national sample of 4012, which presumably encompassed a south Asian sub-sample of about 300, while the latter had a sample of 800.
• Roy Morgan has aggregated its polling among respondents born in India and China going back to mid-2023, which finds both distinctive as major party voters as well as leaning to Labor. Compared with a Morgan average over the period that I calculate at Labor 31.9%, Coalition 36.2%, Greens 13.1% and One Nation 5.5%, the result among Indian-born respondents is Labor 45%, Coalition 39%, Greens 8% and One Nation 2%, which I estimate to be about 56-44 to Labor on two-party preferred; and among Chinese-born respondents, Labor 48%, Coalition 34%, Greens 11% and One Nation 1%, which I make at 61-39. There were 1332 respondents in the Indian-born sample and 738 in the Chinese.
Ven, Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 5:36 pm:
He’s right there: No. 2 military in Ukraine!
Wedding called off, mother in tears: Trump H-1B move spells mayhem for Indians
It was only later that the White House clarified that employers wouldn’t be required to pay the exorbitant amount for H-1B holders upon re-entry to the US, bringing relief to many. But by then, the damage was already done.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/indian-h1b-visa-holders-panic-trump-immigration-100000-us-dollars-visa-fee-big-tech-return-2790836-2025-09-21
“For many Indian H-1B holders in US stuck abroad, Donald Trump’s shock announcement of a $100,000 visa fees — followed by Big Tech companies instructing employees overseas to return within a day — sent them scrambling to the nearest airport, abandoning family events and long-planned trips midway.
Upset and stressed, a Reddit user ‘Saramuch’ detailed the struggles faced by her and acquaintances holding H-1B visas who were stuck outside the US, left confused after Big Tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft emailed employees on Saturday, asking them to return by September 21 at 9:31 am.
“And for those who lacks compassion, shame on you. You didn’t had to see my mom crying because she was about to see me for the 1st time in a few months, that we were about to spend a week together for the first time in a few years!,” she said.
“It’s unfair. We didn’t deserve it. The emotional toll has been immense, with families separated and important occasions missed,” the Reddit user said before signing off.
It was only later that the White House clarified that employers wouldn’t be required to pay the exorbitant amount for H-1B holders upon re-entry to the US, bringing relief to many. But by then, the damage was already done.
Several other H-1B visa holders described the hours following Trump’s late Friday night announcement as filled with “a crazy sense of panic” and “worry.”
“
I suspect the Optus cases in NSW would have been in the Broken Hill area as that was traditional covered by the South Australia area code.
Team Katich says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 6:17 pm
Australia wont improve its bottom line much by offering residency for US liberals for $1m each? But worth it just to see Jacinta Price’s go spare.
Is this true? I know an American liberal who’s fleeing the US for Australia and he has more than $1 Million in the bank. So, what you’re saying is that for $1 Million he can get Permanent Resident status and then a pathway to citizenship?
Cyber attack on Collins Aerospace disrupts check-in systems at major European airports
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-21/cyber-attack-collins-aerospace-disrupts-europe-airports/105798264
“A cyber attack on Collins Aerospace, a provider of check-in and boarding systems, has caused mass disruption at several major European airports.
The attack resulted in hundreds of flight delays and several cancellations from Brussels, Berlin and London’s Heathrow.
RTX, Collins Aerospace’s parent company, said it had become aware of a “cyber-related disruption” to its software at selected airports.”
Me: The people, who did the Cyber attack know whom to attack
Even Heathrow airport was impacted.
https://www-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.news.com.au/travel/travel-advice/airports/cyberattack-brings-major-airports-to-a-grinding-halt-causes-delays-and-cancellations/news-story/d90e97b307fb08b703e48eb73d4554d6?amp=&_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17584436783513&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Ftravel%2Ftravel-advice%2Fairports%2Fcyberattack-brings-major-airports-to-a-grinding-halt-causes-delays-and-cancellations%2Fnews-story%2Fd90e97b307fb08b703e48eb73d4554d6
Czech President Petr Pavel gets it:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/21/ukraine-war-briefing-shoot-down-trespassing-russian-jets-if-necessary-czech-president
No No. Just a suggestion C@t.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb lays out how seriously European countries need to take the security guarantees they need to provide for Ukraine, if they are to be an effective deterrent to future Russian aggression:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/21/ukraine-war-briefing-shoot-down-trespassing-russian-jets-if-necessary-czech-president
Based on Trumps $1m Gold Card offer from earlier in the year.
Trump has offered $1m for high wealth individuals to get a path to US citizenship. $2m per employee for corporations.
A better report on the firm, rational statement by Finnish President Stubbs:
“Security guarantees for Ukraine require readiness to confront Russia, Finnish president says”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/21/7531776/
Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur understands Putin’s objectives behind the recent Russian provocations of NATO:
https://kyivindependent.com/nato-was-ready-to-use-of-force-if-needed-tallinn-says/
The corrupt mullahs of Iran have led their people to near dying of thirst through incompetence, terrorism and neglect… some karma for the vile suffering they inflict daily on innocent Ukrainians:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/21/we-must-change-how-drought-and-overextraction-of-water-has-run-iran-dry
Iran is experiencing a severe water crisis driven by prolonged drought (five years of near-drought) and climate change. Rainfall has dropped about 30% over the past five years and the temperature has risen ~1.8°C in the last three decades. By summer 2025, 19 dams were at only 3–15% capacity, and Tehran’s main dams were nearing critical levels.
Albanese’s election win ‘wide but shallow’: Labor president’s frank admission
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-election-win-wide-but-shallow-labor-president-s-frank-admission-20250921-p5mwqh.html
“Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s record election win was underpinned by a shallow base of support, and the government’s huge majority could quickly vanish due to the fragile state of modern Labor, the party’s president has warned.
The frank admission by Wayne Swan has fuelled what the former treasurer labelled an urgent mission to grow the party’s membership from the low 50,000s – fewer than all but two AFL teams – to 65,000 over the next four years.
:::
Swan said it was a sad fact that the biggest bloc of Labor members were those who, like him, became activists during the Whitlam era in the 1970s.”
Cyberattacks on Airports? Russian Jets violating NATO airspace? Don’t tell me that these two things are not linked.
Australians say the young are victims of intergenerational bastardry
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australians-say-the-young-are-victims-of-intergenerational-bastardry-20250919-p5mwgl.html
“Amid independent warnings that the tax system is working against the interests of younger Australians, an exclusive Resolve Political Monitor poll shows people across the political and age spectrum believe the futures of generations Z and Alpha plus Millennials are being hijacked by older generations.
:::
The Resolve Poll found almost 50 per cent believe the young had been given the short straw of the intergenerational battle. Every age group agreed the young were worse off – 35 per cent of those aged between 18 and 34 said they were “much” worse off.
Fifty-one per cent of people in marginal seats believed the young were worse off while it spiked at 56 per cent among people who did not vote for either the Coalition or Labor. Forty-five per cent of those who supported the government or opposition agreed the young were worse off.
:::
“Shortfalls in money collected from the failing parts of our tax system get made up over time by bracket creep – by higher taxes on workers,” he said.
“That means the existing bias in the tax system against workers and the young is on a ‘set and forget’ course to worsen over time.””
Milo Tully, Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 6:56 pm:
I don’t think it counts as karma that the people of Iran – many of whom have been and are presently suffering under the mullahs – should be paying the price for the mullahs’ misrule (which obviously includes cynically and evilly profiteering from Putin’s genocide of Ukrainians). I bet none of the mullahs themselves are going thirsty.
More talking flying horse rubbish, the Greens where smashed at the election.
Milo Tully, Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:01 pm:
You bet they are. I think sensible people in Europe have finally woken up to the fact that, despite so many Europeans wanting to ‘reassure’ Moscow that they mean no war, Moscow itself is most assuredly waging war upon Europe. All the way from funnelling migrants through Belarus, to funding far-right agent provocateur groups bent on destroying European cohesion and power from within, like Reform in the UK, AfD in Germany and RN in France. (Russia has already captured the castle in both Budapest and Bratislava.)
In 2050, I’ll be 46. These climate targets abandon my generation
https://www.theage.com.au/national/in-2050-i-ll-be-46-these-climate-targets-abandon-my-generation-20250918-p5mw75.html
“Naturally, when it was this Labor government that rode into power on promises of climate action in 2022, we celebrated. The student movement and the climate movement readied ourselves to work alongside the new guard in bringing in crucial climate policy and delivering a future we could feel confident about, rather than one defined by smoke-filled skies, flooded homes and broken promises.
But any narrative of walking hand-in-hand has been slowly crushed over the past three years. And any remnant of hope has been absolutely destroyed over the past week.
:::
The lower end of the target is a dangerously weak commitment dressed up as courageous leadership. So here is the truth I refuse to soften: for me, many of my generation, and many others like my family, who have grown up on the frontlines of the climate crisis, this is not about parties or politics. This is about survival.
:::
Polling shows most Australians want stronger climate action, including a strong 2035 climate target. Young people are not a fringe minority; we are not only protesters, we are voters. And until election time comes around, we’ll keep screaming, because the ballot box is where we can vote for our futures and vote out those who stand in the way of a safe climate. The ballot box is where the void can finally answer back.”
If you’re a doctor in Russia today, prepare to walk away from your Hippocratic Oath:
And there are some in the West who think it is fair enough to demand Kyiv sign over millions of Ukrainians to Moscow’s ghastly misrule, in some sham ‘peace deal’.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:01 pm
Australians say…’
‘…on Bludger Track 11.5% of Australians say that the Greens have gone backwards since the election. No surprise, really.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:08 pm
In 2050, I’ll be 46…’
=================
No you won’t. According to Waters the worlds is going to end in 2035 because Australia is not doing net zero 35.
You know it makes sense.
Over the Tasman Sea, looks like NZ Labour is effectively tied with the National Party.
RNZ-Reid Research Poll for 4-12 September
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/573163/rnz-reid-research-political-poll-points-to-deadlocked-parliament
Labour: 34.3% (+7.4 since election)
National: 32.5% (-5.6)
Greens: 10.9% (-0.7)
ACT: 7.2% (-1.2)
NZF: 8.7% (+2.6)
Maori: 4.1% (+1.0)
TOP: 1.4% (-0.8)
Others: 0.9% (-2.5)
Preferred Prime Minister
Luxon (National): 19.6%
Hipkins (Labor): 23.0%
Swarbrick (Greens): 6.5%
Seymour (ACT): 5.8%
Peters (NZF): 8.9%
Luxon at -15 net approval, Hipkins at +3.
Other polls have moved toward NZ Labour over the year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
because voting for the Greens in 2010 got Nothing done for more than a Decade, and voting now for either the purity test Greens or hopeless LNP will get nothing done till 2050.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/in-2050-i-ll-be-46-these-climate-targets-abandon-my-generation-20250918-p5mw75.html
This person is too young to know that it is the Greens and the Coalition who are the architects of our nation’s failings in addressing AGW. The Greens started it by opposing carbon pricing over 15 years ago. The Coalition continued that with a decade of inaction on the issue. Both parties over the last 3 years have done their best to play performative politics with everything that Labor has tried to do on environmental issues.
In the last week, renewables have supplied 52.4% of the electricity on the NEM:
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=5m&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
According to GPE NEMLog, this is the first-time renewables have exceeded 50% for a week:
Confessions, Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:17 pm:
Yep. Fortunately, Australian voters were sensible enough at the last election to give Labor a iron grip on Government, likely for two or three more terms, with 94 seats in the HofR. Australians should be able to make good progress decarbonising our economy right through until 2031 or 2034, if Australian voters remain sensible enough.
‘SL says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:26 pm
In the last week, renewables have supplied 52.4% of the electricity on the NEM:
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=5m&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
According to GPE NEMLog, this the first renewables have exceeded 50% for a week:
…’
=================
For doG’s sake do not tell Peg about this. It will only depress her. She is not going to make it past 2035 as it is.
Where is upnorth and his doggies?
I gave up Optus a few years ago because there was no reception on my new 5G phone in Forest Lodge, a couple of kms from Sydney CBD
You literally had to walk up to the ridgeline between it and Glebe
Politics and capital abandoned your generation a long time ago, these targets are actually one of the bright spots in all of this. But im sure when you grow up you’ll realise that, not that it matters in the long run.
Thanks Ven.
Proof that Trump is still living in the 1980s, his halcyon days.
True.
Boerwar or c@t,
Why is Wayne Swan raising alarm bells over the ALP membership?
Link: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-election-win-wide-but-shallow-labor-president-s-frank-admission-20250921-p5mwqh.html
Apparently it’s sitting around 50k, and Mr Swan wants it up to 65k within a few years.
Is it to move the ALP away from the union background and diversify, or is there another agenda Mr Swan is concerned about. What’s the go?
That people are still making vague political spin about the announced emissions reduction target is a testament to the appalling capability of the media to report technical matters.
The target was a recommendation by the CCA and was accepted by the government. The suggestion that the target is some intentional political wedge between the LNP and Greens is suggesting the CCA was instructed to deliver a “politically convenient” outcome.
The 62-70% by 2035 target was based on technology and practices that exist today, not those that are predicted to arise. At the rate that technology is developing, there is a good chance that the 70% can be exceeded. Conversely, if the world turns to shit, 62% might be a stretch.
Upcoming Polls:
* Monday arvo we should have the latest “monthly” Roy Morgan, around 5pm.
Apart from that, not much on the horizon.
* Newspoll – due around Sunday 12-Oct
* Resolve – due around the same date, plus fresh Victorian polling figures for Prem Allan.
There’s a couple of pollsters who haven’t reported for a while:
* YouGov – last National poll on Election Eve
* Spectre Strategy – newish outfit, who last reported on 8-Jul
* Demos AU – Last reported on 9-Jul
YouGov can’t be far off, as they are def out there polling atm.
‘nadia88 says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:41 pm
Boerwar or c@t,
Why is Wayne Swan raising alarm bells over the ALP membership?
…’
=================
Because organizational membership in the Labor Party is following the same trend as the organizational members of all community organizations?
Mind you, Liberal membership (apart from a small increase from the kookier end of christian extremists, migrant haters, and sex-crazed gender baiters) is a whole lot worse.
‘SL says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:43 pm
The 62-70% by 2035 target was based on technology and practices that exist today, not those that are predicted to arise. At the rate that technology is developing, there is a good chance that the 70% can be exceeded. Conversely, if the world turns to shit, 62% might be a stretch.’
===============
If the world turns to shit then we can expect that tourism’s massive contribution to CO2 emissions will collapse. In that case we would romp in more than 70%.
SL @ #2187 Sunday, September 21st, 2025 – 7:43 pm
And also political reality. The LNP/CLP runs the Queensland state government and the NT government and they’re anti-net zero. Labor can’t do much about that until 2028 at the earliest if they win power there.
I was just thinking about how old I will be were I still to be alive in 2050. It is going to be a bit of a stretch.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:45 pm
‘nadia88 says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:41 pm
Boerwar or c@t,
Why is Wayne Swan raising alarm bells over the ALP membership?
…’
=================
Because organizational membership in the Labor Party is following the same trend as the organizational members of all community organizations?
==========
What do you mean Boer? Organizational membership is heading down.
So Mr Swan is just sending a message to the current ALP politicians that they need to start attracting new members to the party. Correct?
nadia88
I have no idea. Maybe Swan was trying to head of off Abbott’s MAGA CPACA plea for Liberals to give him and his climate destructive ratbags one last chance? One more throw of the lump of coal?
Boerwar says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:49 pm
I was just thinking about how old I will be were I still to be alive in 2050. It is going to be a bit of a stretch.
==
Will you still be posting here in 2050?
WB will probably be around 110 or so.
Maybe the site won’t be around.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:49 pm
I was just thinking about how old I will be were I still to be alive in 2050. It is going to be a bit of a stretch.
___________________
The need to post “i told you so” will probably get you there.
nadia:
There’s no way William is currently 85.
Trump is edging towards a totalitarian model of controlling the flow of information.
Following the release of poor employment figures, Trump got rid of the head of labour market statistics. Now the Agriculture department will no longer issue its annual report on hunger in America.
Furthermore, Hegseth’s Pentagon wants only journos who parrot the Trump regime’s propaganda.
Nadia88
Swan commented that the bulk of membership joined in Whitlam’s day. They need younger members so they don’t disappear up their own fundament, like the Libs have done
There is also this:
“The rollout of cheap and clean energy continues at pace, with the Albanese Government cracking a century of renewable energy project approvals since the May 2022 election.”
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/watt/media-releases/raise-bat-century-renewable-projects-approved
Most of these projects would have entered the approvals queue before Labor was in power.