Morgan: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

One poll finds Labor maintaining its post-election dominance, while another finds displeasure with the Trump presidency easing slightly.

Roy Morgan maintains its post-election form of publishing intermittent large-sample results from accumulated weekly polling, on this occasion reporting Labor with a lead of 57-43, in from 57.5-42.5 a month ago. The primary votes are Labor 36.5% (steady), Coalition 31% (up half), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one-and-a-half). The accompanying report has breakdowns by state and gender. The poll was conducted from June 30 to July 27 from a sample of 5159.

Also on the polling front are further numbers from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in Nine Newspapers, showing 46% would think it a good think if Australia became more independent of the United States on foreign policy and national security, with 22% rating it bad. Displeasure with Trump’s election win is down on its post-liberation day peak in April, now being rated bad by 53% (down fifteen) and good by 18% (up seven). The lack of a meeting between Trump and Anthony Albanese is rated mainly Albanese’s or Australia’s fault by 26%, Trump’s or the US’s by 38%, and nobody’s by 17%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Morgan: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Maybe the Victorian Liberals would do better if they redirected their energy to: developing some policies that people would want to vote for; also to presenting as a sensible, moderate voice, as the NSW State Liberals have mostly done. At the moment they look like an incoherent, unelectable rabble. In particular, their obsessive hatred and pursuit of Dan Andrews, who has been out of office and out of State Parliament for nearly two years, just looks bizarre.

  2. I would think the Vic Liberal HQ would be keen on Deeming losing preselection but would never be able to pull it off without a shit storm breaking out. I am not sure about the local branches in the Western Metro region but having her at the top of ticket is probably not a vote winner.
    The Liberals only got 24.5% of the vote, which is only 1.5 quotas, but they managed to get two candidates up. The above the line party directed preference system really helped them out.

  3. Former “colourful” Brisbane-based barrister Salvatore (“Sam”) Di Carlo lost his appeal today in the Queensland Court of Appeal to have his practising certificate restored on the basis that ‘he was not a fit and proper person to hold a practising certificate’, effectively ending a 25-year career at the Bar. There’s more to this, but one must be circumspect.

    https://archive.sclqld.org.au/qjudgment/2025/QCA25-143.pdf

  4. Steve777 @ #1251 Friday, August 1st, 2025 – 5:59 pm

    Maybe the Victorian Liberals would do better if they redirected their energy to: developing some policies that people would want to vote for; also to presenting as a sensible, moderate voice, as the NSW State Liberals have mostly done. At the moment they look like an incoherent, unelectable rabble. In particular, their obsessive hatred and pursuit of Dan Andrews, who has been out of office and out of State Parliament for nearly two years, just looks bizarre.

    At the moment most of them seem more dedicated to destroying John Pesutto than anything that Labor is doing.

  5. Mavissays:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:06 pm
    Former “colourful” Brisbane-based barrister
    ——————————————-

    Is “colourful” a safe word to use when being circumspect?

    More to the point has anyone been litigated against for calling someone “colourful” in the context you did here?

  6. For thirty five years the Liberals, Nationals and Greens made hay out of climate change politics. It was all so easy.
    And now look.

  7. Nice big turnout in Sydney on Sunday should provide some great images, protest rallies on the Harbour Bridge usually do

  8. MrMoney – Before Nath yells at you too, the TAC payout was $80k which is supposedly too little and S&G didn’t do a good enough job.

  9. Entropy:

    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:12 pm

    [‘Is “colourful” a safe word to use when being circumspect?’]

    As safe as houses.

    [‘More to the point has anyone been litigated against for calling someone “colourful” in the context you did here?’]

    I highly doubt it.

  10. ”Nice big turnout in Sydney on Sunday should provide some great images, protest rallies on the Harbour Bridge usually do”

    The weather will be crap.

  11. It’s an interesting thing to think about. The various euphemisms colourful, prominent, racing identity etc are used to call someone a criminal who hasn’t been found guilty of something criminal, and everyone knows that’s what it means so I wonder how an action would go suing someone for calling you that.

  12. Mavissays:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:21 pm
    Entropy:

    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:12 pm

    [‘Is “colourful” a safe word to use when being circumspect?’]

    As safe as houses.

    [‘More to the point has anyone been litigated against for calling someone “colourful” in the context you did here?’]

    I highly doubt it.
    ——————————————-

    I think there could be a book in this. Safe words to use when you want imply something that you could get sued for if you actually described it.

  13. ”Sunday is looking better than tomorrow on the weather front in Sydney.”

    Tomorrow is super crap, Sunday is a bit better, forecast rain 9-25 mm (75%-25% probability). I generally go with the higher number. The Tasman Sea these days seems to be more volatile than the forecast models allow for.

  14. Entropy says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:31 pm
    Mavissays:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:21 pm
    Entropy:

    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:12 pm

    [‘Is “colourful” a safe word to use when being circumspect?’]

    As safe as houses.

    [‘More to the point has anyone been litigated against for calling someone “colourful” in the context you did here?’]

    I highly doubt it.
    ——————————————-

    I think there could be a book in this. Safe words to use when you want imply something that you could get sued for if you actually described it.
    中华人民共和国
    It could be an addendum to “Nath’s Compendium of Stooges – International Edition”.

    In Thailand one can be sued for leaving a bad review about a restaurant or other business.

    Added, to leave a bad review about a certain personage means certain incarceration so Colourful is not on my menu.

  15. I was a juror in a trial in Sydney ages ago, in the early 1980s. The plaintiff and witnesses were an interesting cast of characters, “colourful” as one might say. They also seemed to spend a lot of time hanging around racetracks. As it turns out, they were colourful racing identities, although not particularly prominent.

  16. I don’t often watch it, but channel 7 news, 10 news plus and the Age (not as biased) are running 3 anti-Dan stories.

    They even interviewed Jeff Kennett about one of them.

    Bike boy gets A run.

    3ooo day statue gets a run.

    And some other trite throwaway that has already escaped my attention span.

    Should we tell them: we have a new Premier. Dan retired two years ago.

  17. ‘Milo Tully says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:42 pm

    Hopefully the Hamas support group rally will be washed out.’
    =================
    If so, it will wash out the idiot Christians for Netanyahu’s Gaza Ghetto Starvation Policy rally.

    Yahweh/Allah works in mysterious ways.

  18. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:47 pm
    ‘Milo Tully says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:42 pm

    Hopefully the Hamas support group rally will be washed out.’
    =================
    If so, it will wash out the idiot Christians for Netanyahu’s Gaza Ghetto Starvation Policy rally.

    Yahweh/Allah works in mysterious ways.
    ===========================================

    SA and to a slightly lesser extent Victoria need the rain. If these protesters bring rain clouds with them we welcome them all.

  19. Entropy says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:55 pm
    Boerwarsays:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:47 pm
    ‘Milo Tully says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 6:42 pm

    Hopefully the Hamas support group rally will be washed out.’
    =================
    If so, it will wash out the idiot Christians for Netanyahu’s Gaza Ghetto Starvation Policy rally.

    Yahweh/Allah works in mysterious ways.
    ===========================================

    SA and to lesser extent Victoria need the rain. If these protesters bring rain clouds with them we welcome them all.
    中华人民共和国
    They should organise a Cricket Test Match. Wouldn’t fail to rain.

  20. All the rain that everyone else wants falls on the NSW coast. There’s none to spare. We would gladly give it away.

    Why can’t we have a drought like everyone else?

  21. Mabwm @ #1274 Friday, August 1st, 2025 – 6:43 pm

    I don’t often watch it, but channel 7 news and the Age (not as biased) are running 3 anti-Dan stories.

    They even interviewed Jeff Kennett about one of them.

    Bike boy gets A run.

    3ooo day statue gets a run.

    And some other trite throwaway that has already escaped my attention span.

    Should we tell them: we have a new Premier. Dan retired two years ago.

    Honestly I think most of them just want Dan publicly executed and want an excuse to do so.

  22. Steve777 says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 7:03 pm
    ”3ooo day statue gets a run.”

    Could they build it opposite Newscorp’s Melbourne headquarters?
    中华人民共和国
    Build the man a Statue. Build it at the G!!

  23. Upnorth @ #1281 Friday, August 1st, 2025 – 7:08 pm

    Steve777 says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 7:03 pm
    ”3ooo day statue gets a run.”

    Could they build it opposite Newscorp’s Melbourne headquarters?
    中华人民共和国
    Build the man a Statue. Build it at the G!!

    Make it as high as the Rialto, way out of Cooker Vandalism range.

  24. Presumably Melbourne has statues of Henry Bolte and Rupert Hamer. Did the Herald Sun object?

    Jeff Kennett missed out by a few months because he called an early election and came second.

  25. I’ve read the comments and articles on traffic deaths with some personal interest because I’ve lost two family members to road deaths in the last few years (one rural as driver, one urban as pedestrian).

    In the past, I’ve lived in Germany, and one obvious difference between German cities and Australian cities as a driver is that German roads have a different physical segregation – at least on the busier roads, there’s usually lanes for driving and a shoulder for parking. And the “straight” line of traffic through an intersection isn’t necessary straight, but somehow more guided. There also seems to be a flatter or wider road hierarchy – more options for going in the same direction, so you can have one road that is optimised for cars and another one that is better for bikes, roughly parallel and not too far apart so the route still feels natural. In Melbourne at least, you’ve got a lane that is sometimes for parking/cycling and sometimes for driving, when you come up to a car turning right through traffic wants to glide to the left possibly into the space left free by a no standing sign. There’s also several two lane roads where they’ve removed the lane marking and put a FORM 1 LANE sign around and traffic gets confused – some people keeping acting as if it’s two lanes (because it’s wide enough) some people use it to change “lane” without indicating, others try to block traffic and force people into one lane. And the road hierarchy is entirely focused on making a sharp division between through roads (each about a mile apart) and local roads, so that often there’s only really one way between two locations. I used to road my bike a lot but now I don’t know how I did — I don’t want to fight any more. Anyway, I’ve wondered if any of that has something to do with differences in road safety, but maybe it doesn’t because it sounds like it’s an everywhere problem, and to the extent that it’s localisable in Australia it sounds like it’s getting worse in rural areas. So maybe it’s irrelevant. Anyway, I didn’t really find German urban bike infrastructure any good either. At least where I lived, it was more pro-forma or a way to prevent bike riders annoying drivers. It seemed like they were trying to copy the Dutch without actually doing whatever it had been that made the Dutch succeed. But at least there were tolerable “do it yourself” routes, and they had much better stuff outside of the cities.

  26. Quote of the day* goes to Chris Bowen:

    “The former Morrison Government used to talk a lot about Marinus Link and how important it is. We’re getting on with the job and actually delivering it.”

    > You could substitute Marinus Link with any number of things.

    * I know, it’s Upnorth’s thing, I won’t do it again.

  27. Steve777says:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 7:39 pm
    Presumably Melbourne has statues of Henry Bolte and Rupert Hamer. Did the Herald Sun object?

    Jeff Kennett missed out by a few months because he called an early election and came second.

    ———————————————————

    Jeff Kennett made the statue law too.

    “Bronze statues of state premiers who spent more than 3000 days in office are immortalised outside government offices near Treasury Gardens in central Melbourne, under a rule introduced by former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett.”

    https://www.northweststar.com.au/story/8776232/bronze-statue-of-divisive-ex-victorian-premier-in-works/

    The article claims Dan was divisive? Is that one level below “A hole” which certainly would describe both Kennett and Bolte. Hamer though for a Liberal Premier was not bad.

    “A statue of divisive former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews is in the works one year after he resigned from the state’s top job.”

  28. Pi – When Kennett dies, the Exhibition Centre will be renamed after him. So “Jeff’s shed” will be Jeff’s shed.

  29. Pisays:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 7:43 pm
    Someone should do a gofundme for Kennet to get a statue.
    ————————————————-

    Can we vote on how he is depicted in that statue too?

    I would have him depicted as putting his hand over the mouth of a journalist (one of the A ones he claims are unAustralian). While at the same time his foot is in his own.

    Quote: “Jeff only opens his mouth to change feet”

    Better still, crowd fund for a Kennett statue then use the money on a Cyril Rioli statue instead.

  30. Entropy @ #1296 Friday, August 1st, 2025 – 7:53 pm

    Pisays:
    Friday, August 1, 2025 at 7:43 pm
    Someone should do a gofundme for Kennet to get a statue.
    ————————————————-

    Can we vote on how he is depicted in that statue too?

    Also would it pass public decency laws? I don’t think many people would appreciate a bronze statue that looks more like a scrotum than a human in the view of children.

  31. “Better still, crowd fund for a Kennett statue then use the money on a Cyril Rioli statue instead.”

    We could call it “redress scheme”.

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