UPDATE (18/7 9pm): Now YouGov, which began the campaign with a poll painting a much rosier picture for Labor than its peers, ends it in the same fashion, while still finding them having faded over the course of the campaign. The Liberal vote is unchanged at 31%, with Labor down four to 30%, the Greens up three to 16% and independents up two to 20%. It also provides a two-party preferred result (redundant of course under Hare-Clark, except for purposes of comparison) showing Labor leading 55-45, and has Dean Winter leading Jeremy Rockliff by the same amount. The poll was conducted July 7 to 18 from a sample of 931.
Tasmania’s unwanted and unloved state election campaign is drawing to a conclusion, and the Poll Bludger will as always be the place to watch the action as it unfolds tomorrow evening, courtesy of a live results facility that will look broadly similar to last year’s, perhaps with a few bonus features if I can work them out in time.
The one bit of substantial late polling comes courtesy of the Liberal Party, which has been providing regular numbers from its internal research by EMRS to The Mercury, and I for one am trusting enough to think they’re not just making them up. The latest result apparently encompasses 1000 responses from two waves of polling this week and last week, the latter of which was reported earlier in The Mercury, and records no change in having the Liberals leading 37% to 26%, with the Greens down one to 14% and the collective independent vote up one to 19%.
Two other minor items of polling: the same Mercury report that has the EMRS numbers relates that Pyxis (the company responsible for Newspoll) finds 34% think the government deserves to be re-elected compared with 53% for “time to give someone else a go”; and Pulse Tasmania reports a Community Engagement finding that 28.3% out of 872 respondents surveyed in the division of Franklin favour David O’Byrne for Labor leader ahead of 15.7% for Dean Winter.
For any who missed it, here’s another embed of my appearance with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, which was recorded on Monday.
Asha
The keys from Arange were a tabulation from the Allan Lichtmann keys in the U.S. elections.
An interesting poster who is worth a read when he posts, as he got the recent W.A. election absolutely spot on.
57-43
That’s because the keys are based on assumptions and not data. They are a shaky tool at best for the US crazy electoral system, trying to square them into a preference compulsory voting system with multi members ain’t kosher.
Hi Arange,
Sorry, I’ve just seen you’ve dropped a post, and the blog flipped onto the next page, and I missed it whilst tapping away.
Keep up good work on this site. Don’t let the “Labor nasties” put you down. They like doing that.
Keep doing what you do here. You know your politics.
Arange:
Right, I see.
Personally, I’m not sure how much relevance something clearly designed for US presidential elections has to an election in an Australian state with a population of less than 600,000 people that uses a complicated proportional voting system, but I suppose it is somewhat useful as a tool one might use to guide an educated guess on the outcome, provided it isn’t being used in isolation.
Paul A – have a look at Kevin Bonham’s piece on Greens’ preferences and Tasmania…80% of SFA is not a big deal.
As for the ‘it’s all the fault of Hare-Clarke that we don’t get large majorities’, have a think about what 35 electorates spread across 500,000 people would look like – or even better read some analysis. Unlikely to make much of a difference.
And even if that’s wrong, have a look at the disaster that is the NT government – big majorities, big buffoons, big debt and big troubles.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 10:23 pm
“That’s because the keys are based on assumptions and not data.”
Actually, only a couple keys are. Just look at the list I posted at 10:18 PM.
Arange, I’ve seen the keys multiple times. They just aren’t a tool thats suitable for this election.
The keys are wrong yet again, the Tassie economy is doing poorly, inflation and lack of affordable housing.
Lichtmans keys are full of bollocks, he was wrong last year, He just wanted Harris to win rather than using logic.
People should be basing predictions on data, not who they “prefer” to win.
At last we have an independent poll, and it is not in line with the aligned polls.
Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.
We are yet to see the impact of the stadium.
The keys are subjective. They are also inapplicable. I have no idea what
And, I have no issue with minority governments. I would like to see a Green / Labor government.
Tomorrow night will be fascinating.
Hare-Clark has numerous problems, exploitabilities and archaic maths aspects but 35 single seats would be so boring I’m against it for the boredom factor alone. The seats would have a bit over 10,000 votes each. Bigger than NT seats but not big enough to get away from them being upjumped suburbs that were often smaller than our local council areas. The dynamic in our upper house where local mayors go into state politics sweeping all before them would probably spread downstairs resulting in no shortage of indies winning; at least 2-3 seats in Hobart would be permanently won by Greens or Wilkie types. We already have single seat in our upper house and even there 8/15 are independents.
If 5 seats in each of the 5 electorates wasn’t representative enough, and 7 seats in each of the 5 is creating ongoing stasis, would a better compromise be 6 seats in each of the 5 electorates?
Or better still, turn 5 electorates into 6 or 7 with 5 seats in each.
(As a temporary improvement until Tasmania can find its will to switch from Hare-Clark to something easier to understand and conducive to more stable governments that actually have power when elected)
No even numbers please. That got changed after a tied election and both major parties realising they could either (a) provide a speaker or (b) form government – pick one. For a more recent example, Vic 2014 with 45 Lib and 43 ALP, which functioned until one of the Libs went rogue and made it a tied house any time he felt like.
Alaska is of similar population to Tasmania, uses what is essentially optional preferential voting in 40 single-member districts (the big difference I guess being that multiple candidates can run under the same party’s banner), and has recently produced an exceptionally splintered political landscape where voters can’t really tell what coalitions are going to form in the state house because there are tons of independents and even for the party candidates, the party labels don’t identify very well what they are going to do in office.
I do not recommend that system. Struth, I’d probably recommend Tasmania just go to full proportional rep at this point, or even sortition– the localities are simply not large enough or different enough to make the semi-proportionality of Hare-Clark a flame worth the candle. But I don’t live there, so I have no say in the matter.
It’s interesting to see the growing talk over the past few days of some sort of accommodation between Labor and the Greens that will make Dean Winter the Premier. This follows many, many assurances from Labor that there’d never be a deal with the Greens.
If a Labor government is formed with Greens support, I wonder how this will be received by the tens of thousands of people who cast pre-poll votes for Labor before this talk started. I assume a significant proportion of these voters hate the Greens like poison? Will they be pissed off, or simply happy to see Labor back in government?
KB: “The dynamic in our upper house where local mayors go into state politics sweeping all before them would probably spread downstairs resulting in no shortage of indies winning; at least 2-3 seats in Hobart would be permanently won by Greens or Wilkie types.”
——————————————————————————-
Not quite permanently. Only for as long as Labor continues to prioritise an ever-diminishing number of unionised jobs over Tasmania’s marvellous environment. The strength of support for Greens/Wilkie/George/etc. in inner city and leafy parts of Hobart and Launceston and some hobby farming areas is entirely a function of the Tasmanian ALP being very much an old school, pre-Whitlam era party which makes virtually no effort to appeal to the educated middle classes, particularly on environmental issues.
If and when it changes its stance, then Labor will have a chance to win back some or all of these areas, and the potential for Greens and Wilkie-types to hold the balance of power will diminish, regardless of the electoral system we have.
We’ve been discussing aligning the lower house seats with the current 15 upper house seats, have 3 members per seat. It provides 45 lower house members (importantfor workload), keeps HC, and reduces the wild independent mix which isn’t conducive to running the place.
Happy Election Day
It’ll be interesting to see how much difference there is between the on the day vote and the prepoll, which apparently won’t be counted until tomorrow. It could make for a frustrating night with seats, and government, in doubt when counting stops at 11pm, or I’m guessing even earlier
Anyways, my prediction for what it’s worth
I’ll stick with my theory that the Liberals won’t get more than 3 in any seat and Labor 2
Bass – 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Independent (although I’m hoping for 2 Greens)
Braddon – 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Independent
Clark – 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 2 Green, 1 Independent
Franklin – 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 2 Independents
Lyons – 3 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 National
For an overall result of
Liberal 13
Labor 10
Greens 6
Independents 5
Nationals 1
I’m not confident enough to name all individual winners but think 4 of the 6 independents will be Peter George, David O’Byrne, Craig Garland and Kristy Johnston. Not sure who gets there in Bass
As a proud union person, I hope Jess Munday wins
From there I don’t see how the Liberals can form government so it will be up to Labor to decide what they do, surely they don’t say no to governing for a 3rd time?
I hope those in Tassie enjoy the day, especially those going to the Tally room, what a grand experience that would be
Bring on 6pm
Missed the edit by that much… should read 4 of the 5 independents
I do find it pretty funny that people are calling for the system to be abolished because they don’t expect to get the result they want
The politicians just need to work with what the voters decide and get on with it imo
I’m actually more on the workload question. Go look at the partys websites. Every member has 6 or 7 portfolios. That leads to a poorly run state.
G’day Tasmania.
Happy voting. Vote for a Labour government with 15-16 Labor seats. 🙂
(I know majority is not possible. Otherwise I would have said majority Labor government.)
For those bluddgers meeting up shall we aim for 7pm? Once we’re in the building perhaps we can mark out a location?
There’s always the option of giving ministries to the parties that are keeping you in power Mostly Interested rather than trying to do them all yourselves
Daniel T, I see a lot of mainlanders opinion this but on what basis?
“ The keys are wrong yet again, the Tassie economy is doing poorly, inflation and lack of affordable housing.”
House prices are near lowest in the country, inflation is low, unemployment is near lowest in country, GSP per capita is growing around the fastest in the country. Tasmania’s challenge is loss of young people across Bass Strait, and immigration policies which continue to funnel people into Melbourne and Sydney, instead of regions which need more people. It needs more good jobs and opportunities to keep people, playing to its natural advantages.
The stadium resonates with many, particularly the young, despite some mainland run push polls because it provides a vision of progress.
MI: I’m sorry, but I’m still 50/50 as to whether I’m going to make it. If I do, it will probably be a little later than 7pm. But I’ll stay in touch during the day.
‘Kevin Bonham says:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 11:51 pm
Hare-Clark has numerous problems, exploitabilities and archaic maths aspects but 35 single seats would be so boring I’m against it for the boredom factor alone. The seats would have a bit over 10,000 votes each. Bigger than NT seats but not big enough to get away from them being upjumped suburbs that were often smaller than our local council areas. The dynamic in our upper house where local mayors go into state politics sweeping all before them would probably spread downstairs resulting in no shortage of indies winning; at least 2-3 seats in Hobart would be permanently won by Greens or Wilkie types. We already have single seat in our upper house and even there 8/15 are independents.’
====================
Wtte Hare Clark Roulette v Predictable Tasmanian Stodge?
The ferry, the stadium and state bankruptcy should all land at about the same time.
MI, re your proposal for 15×3 member electorates: I’m not sure that this outcome would necessarily reduce the number of crossbenchers by all that much. I think the main problem we have down here is that the major parties are not very popular. For instance, much of the problem with ministers having multiple portfolios would go away if the majors were able to win more seats in the Legislative Council.
(Also, under the Libs, we have seen a real mishmash of portfolios: one government department I used to deal with regularly had to report to four ministers on various aspects of what they did. That rubbish is neither the fault of the voters nor the electoral system. I reckon Tassie could be governed perfectly well by a cabinet of 6-7 ministers).
It’s likely that the crossbench vote tonight will be around 40 per cent or possibly more. That’s much too high for any electoral system I can imagine to be able to restrict access to parliament to the two major parties. I’ll be interested to see anyone’s (most likely Kevin B’s) calculation of the what the outcome would have looked like with 25 seats, but I’d be astonished if it wouldn’t have seen the crossbenchers holding the balance of power. (I’ll take a stab: Lib 10, Lab 8, Greens 4, Independents 3.)
Mundo might be in the tally room tonight in cognito, Mundo doesn’t want to blow his cover.
meher baba says:
Saturday, July 19, 2025 at 9:01 am
………..
“It’s likely that the crossbench vote tonight will be around 40 per cent or possibly more. That’s much too high for any electoral system I can imagine to be able to restrict access to parliament to the two major parties.”
If an electoral system did that it would be working against democracy.
The problem isn’t Hare Clarke. It’s electing MPs who are so moribund in their duopoly thinking that they can’t work with each other that is the problem! It is purely the fault of those elected.
QED
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/tasmanian-election-day-2025.html
Tasmanian Election Day 2025
Good post Dr B. Reckon you’ve nailed it.
I must say, I think it is far being a from good look for the TEC to fail to count a large number of pre-poll votes on the night. I suppose the problem is that they didn’t have enough time to prepare for the election. Which is fair enough. But it doesn’t do a lot for Tasmania’s reputation on the mainland. Which is unfair, because I reckon that, on the whole, the TEC is a pretty good outfit. (That is, if I put to one side the letter-opening machine debacle of a few elections back.)
For any non-Tasmanians reading this, I can echo Dr B’s observation that the late winter winds are blowing fiercely down here right now: which, according to my memory, is a couple of weeks ahead of schedule (climate change?). That the party faithful are not allowed to hand out how to vote cards from polling booths will be a blessing for them this afternoon. At my local polling booth there were some poor bastards trying to get a bbq going. My heart goes out to them.
Stay safe all you Tassie PBers.
paul Asays:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 10:21 pm
Asha
The keys from Arange were a tabulation from the Allan Lichtmann keys in the U.S. elections.
An interesting poster who is worth a read when he posts, as he got the recent W.A. election absolutely spot on.
57-43
———————————————————-
So did the two opinion polls of the WA election also.
Hard Being Green at 7.21 am
Dr Bonham at his election day page (link above) says that most pre-poll centres will be counted late tonight.
If the race for the final seat is close in any electorate it will be the postal votes that are needed for clarity.
While the 4 prominent independents (Garland, George, Johnston and O’Byrne) look a strong chance, an independent in Bass might struggle to get enough preferences.
Garland came home strongly from way back in 2024, but he already had a significant profile around Braddon.
Dr Bonham’s aggregate gives Labor or the Greens a better chance in Bass of getting the final seat relative to an independent.
He has pointed out that the polling has overstated independent support by naming them more prominently in the questions than party candidates.
That may be a bigger factor in Bass and Lyons than in Clark and Franklin.
The You Gov poll suggests that Labor could still win seats, but, even if it is the more accurate poll, it does not suggest Winter is in a strong position.
He has struggled to articulate a clear rationale for change, except for a sort of very diluted It’s Time message.
Instead of precipitating a very early election, Winter would have been better off using the numbers in the previous parliament to constrain the policies that Rockliff could impose.
E.g. on public assets sales Winter could have demanded any such sales be contingent on a future election.
By precipitating an election for which Labor was not prepared, particularly with a look-a-like Liberal policy on the unpopular stadium, Winter may have ironically helped the Green vote.
I’ve come to think that Tasmanians need the new stadium, to boost their tourism credentials.
The Federal Govt and AFL should come to the party on this. Albo with more funding and the AFL with fixturing more games than just Tassie home games.
The result tonight seems predictable. The alliances formed thereafter, less so.
They look like the biggest prepolls which won’t be counted, makes sense I guess as they would be the most work
The picture starts being painted tonight but it’ll be while till we see the finished product imo
Will the winter winds blow Winter to victory or away?
Hey MI: I’m terribly sorry, but I’m not going to make it to the tally room tonight. I have a bit of a cold, and need to be well for something on Monday, so I think it would be pretty silly for me to head out into the wind and rain on a night like this.
I hope that the Tassie PBers – including Mundo (what’s with all this incognito nonsense? Who are you: Queen Mary of Denmark?) – can arrange a catch up sometime in the not-too-distant future.
Have a good night, and I hope for your sake that the encouraging signs for Labor in the polls turn out to be an accurate reflection of the count.
No worries MB, another time. Get better soon. I’ll say hello to KB if I see him. I think we used to play handball together in college (g11&12).
@Ent – as did most people who paid attention.
This is why “the keys” are fucking stupid – or, at best, are a way to try systematise something anyone who has a passing in political history should know – incumbency is a inbuilt benefit in an election.
Take the core issues which tend to influence outcomes – the economy, foreign policy, civil unrest, law and order, stability within the government – you don’t need some pseudoscience or over-implication to tell you if an incumbent government is seen as stuffing up in enough areas they’re going to lose.
JFC.
And I am sorry for bringing this up but, this nonsense has driven me spare for basically decades.
yougov were the polling organisation that were closest to the actual federal election result in May, so those hoping for a possible change of government in Tasmania will be hoping their last minute poll delivered last night bodes well for Dean Winter, it’s certainly a better poll for Labor than the ones released earlier this week.
I haven’t ever paid much attention to Lichtman’s “keys.” But, as I understand it, at least four of them are factors that are meaningless in the Australian political context: ie, elected Presidents, mid-term elections, primaries and the potential for “major” military success or failure in foreign countries. So how anyone could possibly think they would be of relevance to an Australian election is to me an enigma (to use a word of the moment).
meher babasays:
Saturday, July 19, 2025 at 3:32 pm
“at least four of them are factors that are meaningless in the Australian political context: ie, elected Presidents, mid-term elections, primaries and the potential for “major” military success or failure in foreign countries. ”
Just replace ‘presidents’ with ‘leaders’
Just replace ‘mid-term’ with where the gov is at in the polls in the half-way point of the term.
Just replace ‘primaries’ with ‘leadership spills’
Major military success/failure means something big like winning/losing a war, or something similar to that effect. For a state-election maybe substitute that with something more localised.
Anticipation is building.
In a shock result, the ALP, 8 seats, will agree to be the junior partners in a Greens, 10 seats, led coalition government.
Misguided opposition to the stadium being the deciding factor.
The AFL should pay for, and own, the bloody thing.
In further shocking developments, Boerwar resigns from the ALP and takes on the position of advisor to Nick McKim.
“So how anyone could possibly think they would be of relevance to an Australian election is to me an enigma (to use a word of the moment)”
Because they work with the right substitutes.
So, arange, given the keys work, what’s the result? In advance, thank you.
Most people can accurately predict the past.
MABWMsays:
Saturday, July 19, 2025 at 5:11 pm
“So, arange, given the keys work, what’s the result?”
Liberal popular vote win.
Thats what the polls say
Mostly Interestedsays:
Saturday, July 19, 2025 at 5:20 pm
“Thats what the polls say”
At the start of the campaign Labor was ahead in the YouGov poll, but the keys still showed a Liberal popular vote win.
Arange:
What exactly do you mean by winning the popular vote here?
Tasmania uses Hare-Clark and as such the TPP vote is fairly meaningless beyond giving a rough guide of how the election might have gone in a single-member system. If I recall correctly, Labor actually won the TPP preferred by a reasonable margin in the last state election.
If you mean that the Liberals will get the highest primary vote, well… yeah. That’s what most of the polling is already suggesting and what has typically happened in Australian elections both state and federal since the rise of the Greens. I don’t think we need any keys to make that prediction.
Ashasays:
Saturday, July 19, 2025 at 5:33 pm
“What exactly do you mean by winning the popular vote here?”
Highest state-wide primary vote.