UPDATE (18/7 9pm): Now YouGov, which began the campaign with a poll painting a much rosier picture for Labor than its peers, ends it in the same fashion, while still finding them having faded over the course of the campaign. The Liberal vote is unchanged at 31%, with Labor down four to 30%, the Greens up three to 16% and independents up two to 20%. It also provides a two-party preferred result (redundant of course under Hare-Clark, except for purposes of comparison) showing Labor leading 55-45, and has Dean Winter leading Jeremy Rockliff by the same amount. The poll was conducted July 7 to 18 from a sample of 931.
Tasmania’s unwanted and unloved state election campaign is drawing to a conclusion, and the Poll Bludger will as always be the place to watch the action as it unfolds tomorrow evening, courtesy of a live results facility that will look broadly similar to last year’s, perhaps with a few bonus features if I can work them out in time.
The one bit of substantial late polling comes courtesy of the Liberal Party, which has been providing regular numbers from its internal research by EMRS to The Mercury, and I for one am trusting enough to think they’re not just making them up. The latest result apparently encompasses 1000 responses from two waves of polling this week and last week, the latter of which was reported earlier in The Mercury, and records no change in having the Liberals leading 37% to 26%, with the Greens down one to 14% and the collective independent vote up one to 19%.
Two other minor items of polling: the same Mercury report that has the EMRS numbers relates that Pyxis (the company responsible for Newspoll) finds 34% think the government deserves to be re-elected compared with 53% for “time to give someone else a go”; and Pulse Tasmania reports a Community Engagement finding that 28.3% out of 872 respondents surveyed in the division of Franklin favour David O’Byrne for Labor leader ahead of 15.7% for Dean Winter.
For any who missed it, here’s another embed of my appearance with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, which was recorded on Monday.
Stupid labor move to bring this election on.Backfired will cop backlash.
Arrogance state and federal happening.
Fingers crossed for another neutral poll or two, Labor will be hoping for a late swing back after an ordinary campaign
Question is will they finish up sub 30 or, heaven forbid, sub #25in25
I’d like to see the Greens tick back up to 15 or higher to improve the chances of improving their seat count. Although polling less than expected in Franklin opens the door in Braddon
I’m banking on 5, hoping for 6 and dreaming of 7
Full prediction tomorrow
For those who missed the link last nigh to Kevin B’s latest post
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-tasmanian-polling-aggregate-v1.html
He doesn’t provide a definitive prediction, but as I read it he’s suggesting
Braddon: 3 Lib, 2 Labor, 1 Green, Garland
Bass: 3 Lib, 3 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons 3 Lib, 3 Labor, 1 Green
Clark: 2 Lab, 2 Lib, 2 Green, Johnston
Franklin: 2 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 Green, George, O’Byrne
Total: 13 Lib, 12 Lab, 6 Greens, 4 Independents
If correct, this would be a quite remarkable split between left and right candidates (if we were to count Garland as left, which is questionable, but he’s strongly anti-Liberal at present). It would also elect a 26-9 majority of pro-stadium members. All through what seems to be a perfectly reasonable aggregating methodology that bumps Labor’s vote up by six percentage points to more than 30 per cent: a result which has surprised Kevin himself and probably even more so the Labor Party!
I appreciate that the five electorate Hare-Clark system can produce results in which parties can receive surprisingly more or fewer seats than one would expect on the percentage of votes they receive. And I generally put a lot of trust in Kevin B’s predictions. But I’m struggling a bit with these ones, which seem to be quite counter-intuitive.
Kevin, I will humbly suggest a couple of factors that I believe might have a strong moderating effect on what your model has found. One is that the Liberals are fielding far more known quantities as candidates than Labor. The DemosAU poll established in my mind that the only new Labor candidates who are at all well-known/well-liked in their communities are Brian Mitchell, Jessica Munday and, to a lesser extent, Amanda Diprose. In particular, they don’t have any prominent candidates in Bass apart from existing member Janie Finlay, which I think will make it very difficult for them to win an additional seat over and above replacing Michelle O’Byrne. I guess it’s possible that Mitchell’s personal following, such as it is, might get Labor to three in Lyons: my mail is that he isn’t all that popular, but we’re about to find out. Tucker (for reasons that are beyond me) also seems to have a strong personal following, and I’m inclined to think that might carry him over the line vs a third Labor candidate (presumably Farrell).
The other factor that is a bit unpredictable, but I suspect significant, is the strong anti-stadium feeling I am encountering among almost everyone I talk to: a frequent comment being “I’m putting all the candidates in favour of the stadium at the bottom of my ballot paper.” And I haven’t been outside of Franklin, Clark and Lyons during the campaign, so I suspect that feeling is still stronger up north. I would suggest that it is possible that, while the opinion pollsters have consistently overestimated the vote for independents and Greens in the past, perhaps that won’t be the case this time. In which case, that additional 6 percentage points that you have found for Labor might turn out to be a bit of a mirage.
To stick my neck out, I reckon that much of the scattered, anti-stadium vote for independents will end up either electing nobody or else giving preferences to Lib candidates on the basis of their being the devil you know. That’s the assumption underlying my no doubt foolish prediction of the Libs getting to 15 seats.
@Meher Baba:
Braddon: 3 Lib, 2 Labor, 1 Green, Garland
Bass: 3 Lib, 3 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons 3 Lib, 3 Labor, 1 Green
Clark: 2 Lab, 2 Lib, 2 Green, Johnston
Franklin: 2 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 Green, George, O’Byrne
Total: 13 Lib, 12 Lab, 6 Greens, 4 Independents
————
I’d take that. (Obviously I’d prefer a few more Greens.)
What a conundrum that would provide for Labor.
Government there for the taking….. albeit with the hated (by them) Greens.
Very interesting times.
Let’s see how the numbers pan out on election night.
Kevin’s write-up definitely worth a read, sounds like Winter is opening the door to working with the Greens, in some form, depending on the result
I hope that’s the case
I still don’t know if I see the Greens offering supply and confidence. This would say to their voters that its basically pointless to vote for them in the future if they will support Labor in return for nothing – you might as well just vote Labor.
Even if the Greens offer supply and confidence for a limited period, as Kevin pointed out could happen, this STILL give a poor signal to Greens voters AND still looks like Labor is “working with” the greens.
We’ll just have to wait and see what happens!
Well, I have been prepping my postal. (With thanks to the various election guides!)
All 35 boxes of them. Minor parties and independents before LAB before NAT before LIB before anyone socially conservative/ taxpayer largesse trough.
It does sound like neither major party will have enough seats for a majority without getting some minor parties/ independents on side.
Odd though, going on MB’s numbers that 26 – 9 for a stadium would result because that doesn’t seem to reflect team/ stadium polling …
Let’s see if the pollyTICs can work out they have to work with whatever parliament is set for them by the voters.
If the Greens do not get a substantial swing towards them at this election then they have a serious trust problem and an inability to communicate their policy positions effectively. With anti-stadium sentiment high and a lack of trust in the Opposition they really should be aiming for a statewide vote closer to 20%. They have polled this before, but it’s been downhill since.
Does the party even have strategists to suggest changes in emphasis or language to make the party more appealing to a broader section of the electorate?
Stupid labor move to bring this election on.Backfired will cop backlash.
PP of all your sins, posting stuff I agree with is by far the worst.
Plenty of independents running which impacts the Greens vote
I don’t think they should agree to a deal with Labor that gives them nothing in return nor that Labor should be expecting that
Both are better off in power than in opposition though, you achieve nothing from there
Let’s see what the voters decide, where the numbers land and what happens from there
Crossbench MPs expected to again hold power after the Tasmanian state election — how do they plan to use it?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-18/stateline-tasmanian-election-crossbench-demands/105543738
As voting day approaches, Tasmanians deserve more from their politicians
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-18/tasmania-2025-state-election-eve-analysis/105511992
Have fun tomorrow night observing in the tally room or elsewhere.
Compared with Tasmania, the ACT election scene is rather boring. Both jurisdictions have Hare Clark except that ACT has fixed four year terms and no upper house. ACT is rapidly catching up to Tasmania in population – 482K vs 575K at 3/12/24 (ABS).
There are constant demands for a new stadium in Canberra for Rugby League and Union (Raiders and Brumbies) but Aussie Rules also has a big presence. So far it is mostly a non-issue with the electorate at large. Building other infrastructure for the growing population is considered more important.
Yes there are plenty of greenish type Independents attracting people that would otherwise have voted Green. That should be seen as a failure of the Greens. Many are also deserting the Greens to vote for a greenish Independent instead. Look at Rosalie Woodruff’s polling collapse, for example. I am very sorry this has happened, as the Greens looked strong and on the march a little more than a decade ago.
The fact that all this EMRS polling is Liberal commissioned gives me some hope that it will simply be wrong, given the track record of Liberal polling dropped to media. If so it would not exactly be great for the rep of EMRS of course.
The Pyxis polling re time for someone else to have a go doesn’t really gel with an improved Liberal vote.
But we shall have to see.
@MABWM if Labor are in a position to form minority gov they have to take it this time, if they force an election and then refuse to form government again just because it’s hard we might as well pack up Tassie Labor IMO.
Arky says:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 10:17 am
@MABWM if Labor are in a position to form minority gov they have to take it this time, if they force an election and then refuse to form government again just because it’s hard we might as well pack up Tassie Labor IMO.
______________
Precisely the point Arky. The ALP are going to have to grasp the nettle – if the election ends up giving them the opportunity. Otherwise they are the baby throwing all the toys out of the cot, again. How many times can you shoot Bambi?
They’ll be calling Winter WACO before the day is out – Winter always chickens out.
As for the polling – I’d give it more faith if it was coming from someone other than the Liberal Party.
That said – why would the Greens offer supply and confidence for nothing in return. That is just ALP wishcasting.
——
What is it with Oppositions calling for elections and moving no-confidence votes with no back up plan?
The Tassie ALP saw the federal result and thought – My, my! I’ll have a piece of that. Of course the votes aren’t in yet, and a miracle may still happen, but they look to have made a mistake. Albo did not romp home because the ALP were globally popular. He romped home because of extremely good timing. Trump went mad and Dutton and his cronies kept threatening to be just like him. The Australian electorate could smell a dystopian putative christian nationalist dictatorship a mile off. Dutton was very scary. Like really scary, with his authoritarian tendencies. Rockliff is just a nice bloke who isn’t terrible at his job, he is not a seriously impaired wannabe dictator.
________
Saturday night is going to be a doozy – even without Antony “Thinking Woman’s Crumpet” Green to admire. Casey, those are big boots to fill. Geeks rule!
Standing firm and sticking with my prediction, but 12 for Labor would be a candy land if it came to be considering the polling.
Bass: Libs 4, Labor 2, Greens 1, Right 4 Left 3
Braddon: Libs 3, Labor 2, Greens 1, Ind 1 (Garland). Right 3 Left 3 Center 1
Lyons: Libs 3, Labor 2, Greens 1, Nats 1. Right 4 Left 3 – This is the seat I am least confident about on the 7th member, but if the Nats dont pick it up the Libs or Lab should
Clark: Libs 2, Labor 2, Greens 2, Indi 1 (Johnston) Right 2 Left 5
Franklin: Libs 2 Labor 2, Greens 1, Indi 2 (O’Byrne and George) Right 2 Left 4 Center 1
Libs 14, Labor 10, Greens 6, Nats 1, Indi 4 – Right 15, Left 18, Centre 2
If the anti -stadium sentiment is more prevalent in the north why is the biggest major party vote projected in Bass and Braddon? Not inconceivable the Libs could get 4 in either Bass or Braddon.
Updated TAS Election prediction with recent polling and Kevin Bonham’s aggregate in consideration. In addition I’ll be adding asterisk to certain seats to indicate a possibility for another candidate winning.
Clark: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 2 GRN, 1 IND (Johnston)
Lyons: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 NAT* (Tucker)
Bass: 3 LIB (Bridget Archer being one of them), 2 ALP, 2 GRN*
Braddon: 4 LIB*, 2 ALP, 1 IND (Garland)
Franklin: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 2 IND (O’Byrne, George)
TOTAL: 14 LIB, 10 ALP, 6 GRN, 4 IND, 1 NAT
RESULT: Likely Liberal minority government unless Dean Winter forms a government off the help of the Greens (which he is now open to) and some INDs
Notes*:
– Recent polling and Bonham’s aggregate showed that it is possible that the Nationals (specifically Tucker) could win a seat in Lyons. Given that Labor’s polling has been declining from mid 30% to mid 20% (I presume in part due to their pro-Stadium position and them being blamed for starting the election), I’m beginning to think that Labor might not be able to win more than 2 seats per electorate. In addition from what little polling we have it does seem like the Nationals have going on an upwards trend there. However, I am adamant that if Labor does wins 3 seats in one of the electorates, it will be Lyons.
– Initially I was surprised to see the possibility that the Greens can win a second seat in any electorates outside of Clark but after seeing recent polling, Bonham’s aggregate and the rationale for the Greens winning a 2nd seat (due to the anti-stadium sentiment), it does make sense. The only reason why I’m not confident in this prediction is because the numbers from Bonham’s aggregates indicates that it’s more likely Labor wins a 3rd seat, although he is skeptical about this possibility.
– I’m mostly confident the Liberals will win a fourth seat in Braddon because polling shows the Liberals dominating this electorate in the low 40% and also because they have two well known candidates in Rockliff and Pearce. However, I’m keeping an open mind about the possibility of the Greens winning a seat here; assuming Labor does decently well in Braddon.
– Note that even though I’m using polling, the majority of them have been commissioned by the Liberal party which may have skewed my prediction in favour for the Liberals. Either way, the TAS election featured so little polls that there’s no choice but to use them. If I wanted to skew this prediction to be slightly more favourable to Labor it would be 13 LIB, 11 ALP (+1 Lyons), 7 GRN (+1 Braddon), 4 IND; I’ll be counting this one as a secondary prediction.
To be clear my polling aggregate article is NOT A PREDICTION and says so at the top but people still seem to think it is, perhaps I needed to use 48-point font? I might be willing to make it a prediction if I got another poll. In the past I have usually made it one.
I don’t think Labor will get 30.3%. They may get close.
I’m wildly unconvinced Labor will get 3 in Bass and Lyons but I’m also wildly unconvinced re anybody else’s claims to those seats. (Just maybe Tucker in Lyons? Bass no-one wants it.)
Not having a high profile 2nd candidate in Bass actually helps Labor because they might get an even split between their 2nd and 3rd which is their only chance, with 2 high profile candidates they’d be 2 quotas and out. Hare-Clark is spooky.
Also re the “additional 6 points” – that’s compared to one single published poll that was the worst of the lot for Labor. It’s also the most recent.
I’m still holding off till tomorrow with my prediction in the hope of more polling…
If, and I hope they do, Labor is willing to work with the Greens in some form, you would think the Liberals would go close to needing 15 seats given the potential make up of the Independents (I’d imagine they’ll get Tucker if he wins)
Of course 7 seats for the Greens would really force Labor’s hand, dare to dream. Even 6 makes them harder to ignore
Noting I’m potentially setting myself up for disappointment here, Labor has refused to form government with the Greens twice already, a 3rd time shouldn’t surprise
What’s the old saying?
Cutting your nose off to spite your face
OK Dr B, fair cop: I only noticed your NOT A PREDICTION disclaimer long after my post this morning. I was going to add another post correcting myself and emphasising that point, but I didn’t get time.
As for my suggestion that polling showed Labor at 24 per cent (ish), I was specifically thinking of the DemosAU poll, which perhaps I have been overly impressed by because all the interesting detail it has provided about individual candidates concurs with my impression as to how the voters tend to view those candidates.
I take your point re Labor having a better chance at a third seat in Bass with at even split between the candidates running second and third. However, I feel unconvinced that the Labor vote in Bass will achieve the necessary critical mass to make that quirk of the Hare-Clark system possible. To be honest, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Greens were to pick up a second seat there on the back of anti-stadium sentiment.
Even today, I have talked to people who normally don’t give a toss about local politics who are all fired up to vote against candidates who support the stadium. It reminds me of the anti-self government sentiment in the ACT in the first Legislative Assembly election in 1989, which resulted in enough third party/independent candidates being elected to enable them to form their own government for a time. I doubt very much that we’ll get quite that far in Tasmania in 2025, but I’m feeling ready to be surprised. If voters feel strongly enough about an issue, they’ll find a way of making themselves heard.
Hard Being Green says:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 3:37 pm
…
What’s the old saying?
…’
=================
Your concern trolling is getting tedious.
“Even today, I have talked to people who normally don’t give a toss about local politics who are all fired up to vote against candidates who support the stadium. It reminds me of the anti-self government sentiment in the ACT in the first Legislative Assembly election in 1989, which resulted in enough third party/independent candidates being elected to enable them to form their own government for a time.”
Interesting comparison. One Liberal I spoke to said they’re actually getting less of it on the doors than last time but listening to Leon Compton’s streetwalk in town there was a very high level of no-stadium (and a bit of pro-stadium but not much).
Font cast podcast they tear Labor a new hole in terms of not being able differentiate themselves from Libs (remembering the owner is a Lib)
https://podcasts.apple.com/ch/podcast/the-winter-election-campaign-of-our-discontent/id1456322032?i=1000717832386
Interesting stat from the Tallyroom
“On average, 3.7 MPs have lost their seats at each election since 1989.”
I’m thinking it’ll be over that this time especially as there are more who can, he includes an analysis of which members are most at risk
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60891
It’s been pretty grim so I’m going to post just 1 meme
Thanks for the link to the podcast Mostly Interested, very entertaining
Latest YouGov poll for Tassie – doesn’t look to flash for the Libs.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/52611-tasmanians-favour-dean-winter-for-premier-in-event-of-hung-parliament
31% Libs
30% Labor…. and wait for it
a stonking 16 fkn % for the Greens. Looks like they are back!
Going to be an interesting night tomorrow
Going by those sorts of numbers, looking like a Labor minority will be called at around 8.30pm Hobart time.
Six out of 8 states soon to be in ALP hands.
Wonder if the GST will be jacked up to 12.5% or 15% this term.
Snake Charmer is itching for it.
Federal Labor faces the electorate again before the NT & QLD Parliaments.
Thank goodness for 3 year Federal terms.
Thanks for the link Paul A
Great poll for the Greens, feeling better about 6 seats now and dreaming of 7
The actual outcome won’t be known for weeks though, will Labor choose to work with the Greens or not?
See where the numbers land and we’ll go from there
Will the Greens choose to work with Labor !!!
I doubt very much the Greens will “work” with Labor in Tassie.
After the “job” Federal Labor did in Griffith & Melbourne, I doubt there is very much goodwill left between Labor & the Greens.
Anyway, looks like a minority Labor gov’t in Tasmania.
Greens will probably prop them up in order to change the gov’t, but will probably sink the knife in when it suits them {Remember Christine Milne Jan 2013}. Time will tell of course.
I reckon “minority Labor” will be called by around 8.30pm Hobart time tomorrow.
if they win again, that is 15 years in power if they survive 4 years, normally you replace old underwear, socks and old tyres when they get old. why won’t Tasmanians do the same?
but idc how “moderate” Tas Liberals are. screw the stadium, nobody wants it, they need housing
The premier needs to respect not everyone gives a damn about footy
Imagine:
Libs/Nats: 13
Labor: 12
Greens: 6
Ind: 4
or
Libs/Nats: 13
Labor: 11
Greens: 7
Ind: 4
Very possible and would pretty much force Labor to receive supply to form government.
Daniel T,
The football stadium issue is the biggest load of nonsense anyone has heard about.
Fancy forcing the MCG, the SCG, the WACA or Adelaide Oval to place a roof over their respective stadiums, in order to host AFL matches. There would’ve been riots.
Supporters are quite used to rainy football fields. ie: Bring a brolly.
And as for blokes in their 20’s and 30’s running around a footy ground in the rain: tough luck guys.
Supporters know that wet weather equals low scoring games. Big deal.
If the Libs wanted to win this election, they should’ve told the AFL Commission to GAGF over the stadium roofing issue. They’ve chosen to “pussyfoot” around instead.
As it is, the Libs are on track to lose power tomorrow night. Whether it’s “stadiums”, or some other {cough – more important} issue, we will know tomorrow night.
Final key update:
Definitely True 8
Probably True 2
Probably False 1
Definitely False 3
7 false keys needed for the opposition to win the popular vote.
As many posters correctly point out, it is possible for a party to win without the popular vote.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/tasmania-2025-yougov-has-majors-much.html Tasmania 2025: YouGov Has Majors Much Closer
Paul A – can I have some of what you are on? Even at 30 percent it’s still unclear how Labor can form minority government at all – let alone without knowing the make up of the Independents or how many Greens political party members get elected.
Even in the days after the election it surely will take some Olympic quality backflipping from both Labor and the Libs to clarify who are the non radical Independents are and what never ever ever doing a deal with the Greens really means.
One poll on the day before the election is a pretty tenuous hook upon which to hang one’s hat.
Arange’s best guess/prediction:
LIB 13
ALP 11
GRN 5
OTH 6
34% support status quo
53% think it’s time for someone else (but there isn’t anyone, only a bunch of diverse groups)
13%? – these hold the key to whether Libs rise above 34%. Will they swing decisively to one side or another, or scatter everywhere in line with current polling.
We also need to keep in mind that although similar % support both Lib and a new stadium, they aren’t one and the same group of voters.
Given that about 35% support (many of them quite strongly, it’s to be believed) a new stadium, who do they vote for? If they’re Libs normally they will vote Lib. If they’re Lab normally they will probably vote Lab, but fear of Lab working with those opposed to stadium might lead some to vote Lib. If they otherwise lean Green or Independent, but have no stadium-supporting Independent in their electorate, how strongly do they want that stadium – do they vote Lab or (esp) Lib?
Conversely, will a significant number of anti-stadium Libs feel strongly enough about it to vote Indy, Nat or Green?
Will the 2 effects outlined above even themselves out, or go strongly one way once last minute deciders are included? Are people even being honest to pollsters if they’re having to hold their nose and vote for someone they don’t really like this time?
You can certainly see Libs anything from sub-30% to 40%+, and so on with similarly large ranges for Labor and Indys. Greens will presumably be somewhere around that 15% number, that seems more predictable unless polls are just plain wrong.
Also agree with whoever above observed that Nats seem to have some momentum in polls, if realised on the day this will badly scupper Lib seat count in those 3 electorates. They can kiss goodbye to getting 4 seats anywhere in this scenario, and worst case might end up with 10-11 seats whilst Labor have a much more efficient spread of votes and win more seats with fewer votes. It’s harder to see the opposite occurring under any scenario (Libs having a more efficient spread of votes than Lab), which is why Libs need to win at least as high a % share as 2024 to have even a chance of leading the next government.
40% might get them to 15 seats, at which point it’s probably hard for anyone else to form government without them.
One question for after the voting is over, is how many seats (and votes) would Libs have won if Nats hadn’t decided to step into the void left by JLN.
Anti-stadium Libs for whom the risk of left-wingers getting into government would be bigger than the risk of $750m extra debt for the government’s contribution to the stadium, might well have stayed Lib but now vote Nat with a clear conscience.
How many will figure that voting Nat lets a more left-wing government get into gov by default is a question. And how many of this group will still vote Nat regardless, thinking it’s an acceptable compromise and that Tassie might just have to face the music for whatever eventuates, is another question.
I’m not even going to dare to venture a prediction on how this one will go, apart from the obvious one that it almost certainly won’t result in a majority government. Between the variable polling and Hare-Clark being Hare-Clark, there are so many different ways this could turn out tomorrow night. Rockliff is surely the favourite to remain Premier, but I wouldn’t count out Winter being able to scrounge up the numbers either.
One has to wonder how different a contest this would be if the ALP had had the guts to come out against that stupid stadium. Seems like the state opposition has been truly fucked over by their federal counterparts if the rumours are any indication. If Winter was indeed forced to go all-in on the stadium on orders from up high, I still can’t quite fathom why he wouldn’t have done what any other state leader would have done in such a position and told the federal party to get the hell out of the way and let him get on with winning an election.
Should be a fascinating watch tomorrow, no matter how things go.
Tropical Wonderland,
The Hare Clark system is utter rubbish, and hopefully it will go away in the years to come, and Tasmania will be split up into 35 State Electoral Divisions.
As it is, Hare-Clark will once again determine who get’s what seats tomorrow night.
The system is a recipe for ongoing division.
Regarding your comment about the ALP on 30%. Please add about 80% of the 16% distributed Greens vote to that tally. Then you comprehend why the ALP should be on track to form minority gov’t.
Per JLN – Jacqui is very savvy about luring right wing voters to vote for her, but her record in the Senate is that she votes heavily left. A lot of “right wing” voters don’t seem to know (or care about) her voting pattern. As it is, she’s got another six year term, so I suppose her supporters couldn’t GAF.
Arangesays:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 9:05 pm
Final key update:
Definitely True 8
Probably True 2
Probably False 1
Definitely False 3
7 false keys needed for the opposition to win the popular vote.
As many posters correctly point out, it is possible for a party to win without the popular vote.
===========================
Arange,
Not trying to have a go, but weren’t your “keys” predicting an LNP Federal win at some point in April this year.
Its entirely possible that this is because I am an idiot, but I am struggling to even begin to understand what these “keys” are and what makes them “true” or “false.”
paul Asays:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 10:09 pm
“weren’t your “keys” predicting an LNP Federal win at some point in April this year.”
That was assuming the polls in the mid-point of the term were spot-on, and the Trump effect wasn’t real. I personally suspect both assumptions were wrong, but even if you only factor in the polling error, they were correct.
Ashasays:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 10:10 pm
”
Key 1: Midterm Gains
Key 2: No close primary contest/leadership spill
Key 3: Incumbent Seeking Re-election
Key 4: No major third party
Key 5: The economy is not in resession/people don’t feel like they are in a resession
Key 6: Real per capita gdp growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms
Key 7: Major Policy Change
Key 8: No major, violent, widespread social unrest
Key 9: No major scandal recognised by both sides of politics
Key 10: No foreign or military failure
Key 11: Major foreign or military success, like winning a war
Key 12: The incumbent party leader is appealing to moderate voters of the challenging party
Key 13: The leader of the challenging party is not appealing to moderate voters of the Incumbent party.
Key 14: True if there’s something major triggering a ‘Rally around the flag effect’
7 false keys for opposition to win the popular vote.
After giving it much thought, my expert prediction is that the election will probably result in either Jeremy Rockliff or Dean Winter being sworn in as Premier.
Asha @ #46 Friday, July 18th, 2025 – 10:10 pm
Probably best not to bother, they’re pretty much Arange’s tarot cards and they get really mad if you question them.