Two new Victorian state polls suggest Labor has re-established its dominance in the state, despite the evident handicap of Jacinta Allan’s unpopularity. Newspoll in The Australian has Labor leading the Coalition 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 35% and Greens 12%, compared with 2022 election results of Labor 37.0%, Coalition 34.4% and Greens 11.5% and 55.0-45.0 to Labor on two-party preferred. However, Allan records dire personal ratings of 30% approval and 61% disapproval compared with 35% and 40% for Liberal leader Brad Battin, who leads 41-36 as preferred premier. A question on confidence in the Coalition’s readiness to govern breaks 60-40 against. The poll was conducted June 23 to 30 from a sample size to be advised. While there have been numerous Victorian state polls since the last election, I believe this is the first from Newspoll.
The Herald-Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll crediting Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, reversing a 51-49 deficit in the last such poll in April. Labor is up four on the primary vote 33%, with the Coalition down three to 38% and the Greens up one to 14%. Twenty-seven per cent say the Allan government has the right focus and priorities, with 55% holding a contrary view, while 26% think the Coalition deserves to win the next election, 45% holding otherwise. The poll was conducted June 19 to 30 from a sample of 1183.
UPDATE (8/7): The Australian has further results from Newspoll, finding 59% support for the Suburban Rail Loop with 32% opposed, and asking if respondents were “worried” or “confident” in four different policy areas: state debt (78% worried, 13% confident), law and order (76% worried, 20% confident), hospitals (71% worried, 25% confident) and housing (78% worried, 16% confident).
DanielT: “Ok, then why did the premier take false credit for the federal results in Victoria? It was a vote against Dutton, not an endorement of her government..”
Weren’t you the guys saying you were going to win a swag of seats in Victoria because of how much everyone hated the Victorian ALP government? How did that work out for ya? You’re literally blaming Allan for proving you wrong, and then getting upset when she does. “How could she have possibly done this to us?!!?!?!!?” The phone call is coming from inside the house.
Pi, Me? I didn’t say anything about the Libs gaining seats in Victoria. no need to put words my my mouth mate.
I said at the time Labor would gain Deakin and possibly Menzies because Dutton is toxic down here. and when I helped with the Monique Ryan camp, nobody there I spoke with thought Labor would hold Chisholm, I predicted Garland would win with an increased majority on these boundaries and she did.
How did the premier “prove me wrong”? I said Labor didn’t get a swing to them because of the state government. How in your deluded world am I wrong about that buddy?
The federal election was won by federal Labor and only Federal Labor and lost by the federal opposition. Not the state Labor party.
Also Kos Samaras would be agreeing with me and strongly disagreeing with you. and he was a labor stragegist to a competent Labor government under Steve Bracks.
It’s time to stop drinking the Kool-Aid from the fire hose and accept reality that the state government is unpopular (but the state opposition is even more unpopular)
DanielT: “Pi, Me? I didn’t say anything about the Libs gaining seats in Victoria.”
Every single one of you chumps were screaching for a good solid year about how Victoria was “on the nose” and “the worst vic government in history” and were “dragging down the federal ALP”. Every single one of you was wrong. Not a little bit wrong. Wrong written on a sign made of wrong, planted in the ground by guys wearing shirts with “wrong guy” written on them.
DanielT: “It’s time to stop drinking the Kool-Aid”
The guy who says we’re in a state of “civil unrest” in Victoria squeals about kool-aid drinkers. The phone call is coming from inside the house. All you do is drink that murdoch slime you call ‘kool-aid’.
DanielT “the state government is unpopular”
Can you not read the subject matter of this thread?
“Newspoll in The Australian has Labor leading the Coalition 53-47”
Maybe you shouldn’t consume so much of the herald sun comments section. The slime has gummed up your gears.
It was pretty obvious during the election campaign that Federal Labor had the Victorian Government locked in a box somewhere. Didn’t hear a peep from them at all – no announcements no nothing. Very well managed by the Federal ALP.
bbs: “Didn’t hear a peep from them at all – no announcements no nothing.”
You mean like announcing the Suburban Rail Loop, the largest project in Australia? You chumps couldn’t stop yourself screaching about it. “muh debt” “muh allan” “muh dan”. And ya can’t stop lying to save yourselves.
Maybe you’re just so used to screaching about everything that you’re incapable of hearing anything over your own noise. You just can’t admit that everyone has tuned you out, and the media sources that told you your opinion are considered no bettter than used toilet paper. You were saying the same thing about Dan Andrews three years ago.
Arky says:
Monday, July 7, 2025 at 9:33 am
…
Voters? It did not help Allan that she came into the job linked with the massive Commonwealth Games fiasco. She’s replacing Daniel Andrews who I know think built up a substantial personal vote as Premier. She’s a woman which means a certain amount of sexism will exist against her. And she hasn’t done a lot yet to really establish herself as a person to the electorate – she needs to get some major interview time to just talk about herself and make herself known as a person, I think, and maybe she’s saving that for the election campaign proper.
..
I think that is a pretty fair summary. Allan really is not well enough defined to hate or love. She doesn’t seem to be dragging down the Labor vote.
Pi, do you work for Labor?
It’s clear you are ignoring the issues that are putting the gov on the nose lile youth crime and enormous debt.
You also completely ignored my final point about “The opposition is even more unpopular”
In politics you don’t win for being popular, you win by being more popular (or less unpopular) than your opponents, this is the case in Victoria. with the state of the Libs in Victoria right now. Labor should be leading 60-40 but they are not. so my point still stands.
Next I bet you will say my seat of Malvern will flip Labor, hell would freeze over before that happened.
DanielT: “do you work for Labor?”
Do you work? Are you capable of working and breathing at the same time?
DanielT: “youth crime ”
So it’s not the african gangs anymore? How did that screaching work out?
DanieltT: ““The opposition is even more unpopular””
For. Ten. Years. And. Counting.
Maybe you should reflect on your part in why that’s the case. You people have been screaching the same script for all of those ten years. Or maybe you should stop consuming so much murdoch slime.
Pi
The Suburban Rail Loop was announced in 2018 not 2025. Where have you been?? Do you also realise that the Feds have not yet coughed up the billions in funding because there is not a business case that stacks up.
bbs: “The Suburban Rail Loop was announced in 2018 not 2025.”
It didn’t start until 2024 chumpy boy, which you’d know if you hadn’t drowned out every other sound with your screaching over the past ten years.
bbs: ” business case”
Stop parroting murdoch slime and thinking it’s your opinion.
“It didn’t start until 2024 chumpy boy, which you’d know if you hadn’t drowned out every other sound with your screaching over the past ten years.”
It was announced during the 2018 election campaign, the first contracts were let last year, the tunnelling is scheduled to start later this year. It was also announced without a business case, without the knowledge of the Transport Department, without Cabinet being consulted and was cooked up with external consultants in Daniel Andrews office. There have been lots of reports about that. I don’t know where you live but I live in a Victoria that is in deep debt and where there are lots of needs such as hospitals, schools, and transport cannot be provided in the Western and Northern suburbs because the cost of the SRL is going to suck the financial beejeezus out of everything. The planned demolition of the Housing Commission towers was also cooked up in Andrews office without proper policy considerations.
bbs: “it was announced during the 2018 election campaign”
https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/suburban-rail-loop/works-at-every-srl-station-site-in-2024
“2024 will be the biggest year yet for Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) East, with construction forging ahead and work boots on the ground across all 6 station sites.” – 06 Feb 2024
bbs: ” Victoria that is in deep debt ”
No it isn’t : https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/sorry-media-neither-victorias-budget-nor-its-economy-is-in-a-bad-shape/
Stop parroting murdoch slime and thinking it’s your opinion.
At the start of the year Victorian Labor was looking somewhat shaky, but since the Federal election they seem to have regained their footing somewhat, especially with Moira Deeming and her puppetmaster Peta Credlin hellbent on destroying the Liberal Party as it stands at the moment.
That said, I have been seeing a lot of internet ads for Michaela Settle these last few weeks, so Labor might be a bit worried about her seat of Eureka (covers Southeast Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh and rural towns between them and Lethbridge near Geelong, currently held on 7.2%). Things could get dicey if the Nationals run a high profile candidate too.
Ripon’s definitely in danger as well on 3%, but Wendouree should be safe on 11.9%.
Also the premier would have lost her seat on federal figures, The Nats would have won it. Bendigo East is more conservative than Bendigo West when I looked at federal figures
Daniel T @ #66 Monday, July 7th, 2025 – 6:00 pm
That could be true, Bendigo East stretches to the Northeast toward Rochester and has some strong conservative leanings the closer it gets to the Murray River, while Bendigo West stretches to the Southwest toward Castlemaine and Maryborough and has safer Labor areas.
Given the shock of the Federal result in Bendigo, there’s a possibility where Labor wins but the Premier loses her seat.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, July 7, 2025 at 6:21 pm
Pisays:
Monday, July 7, 2025 at 2:56 pm
_____________________
You are sounding a but unhinged PI.
Posting on Pollbludger at 2.56 pm on a business day will do that to you.
Remember it’s only politics.
Time for you get a fucking life mate.
==============================================================
You could become a life couch like TM. Whose whole life revolves around telling random people on the internet how they should be living their life.
Jacinta Allan was the first Labor candidate ever to win Bendigo East in its modern form (it was abolished in 1927 and recreated in 1985).
Labor did quite poorly in regional Victoria generally (except for greater Geelong) at the federal election so it seems reasonable to assume that there would be above-average swings there, and the Nationals don’t carry the same negatives that the Victorian Liberals do. That said, the Bendigo federal result was a very peculiar (and almost quasi-independent) campaign which was possible only because the Nationals could focus all of their Victorian resources on a single seat; their resources would be more thinly spread in a state election.
I’d be very surprised if Labor held Ripon; they might come under pressure in some of the Bendigo and Ballarat seats (Ballarat more likely) although if the end result was something like 52-48 I doubt they’d lose any of them.
The really big question is the Melbourne greens; Will we see Bandt contest a state seat? Can they separate their poor federal performance in Melbourne from their state seats? Will they double down on their university debate team politics?
Pi @ #72 Monday, July 7th, 2025 – 8:31 pm
The results of the recent Prahran state election with a 13% swing from Greens to Liberal suggests probably not, although there are a few Labor-held marginal seats that the Greens would undoubtedly target, namely Northcote (0.2%), Pascoe Vale (2.0%), Preston (2.1%) and Footscray (4.2%).
Honestly those could fall either way.
The other question is whether any teals will decide to contest at the state level. Maybe Zoe is looking for a new job?
Of course, all of this is a year and a half away…
Pi @ #74 Monday, July 7th, 2025 – 8:46 pm
If Zoe Daniel chooses to run for state seats within Goldstein, her choices are Brighton (Lib 5.1%), Sandringham (Lib 5.0%) and Caulfield (Lib 2.1%).
Those are doable, although since James Newbury in Brighton is a close political companion of Tim Wilson, if she goes for that one, they’ll fight hard if she goes for that one.
This poll highlights one thing, and that is Jacinta Allan is on the nose. She does not cut through and never will.
I will make a prediction Labor will be tossed out next year because people never vote on policies they vote on leaders. It is always like this. Trump won last year because Harris was not seen as the average joe, Albo won because Dutton was simply seen as a thug with no idea. And in Tasmania coming up i will make a prediction now the Libs will be returned in a minority government because Winter is seen as weak.
Policies again will not matter.
SD: “Jacinta Allan is on the nose.”
Like we were told that Andrews was “on the nose”? Remember he was going to lose his seat? And wasn’t Albanese seen as ‘weak’ against those uber strong guys Morrison and Dutton?
Some of y’all need to take a course in critical thinking : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability
Your argument amounts to “the polling is wrong”.
Media with its bias will always put that ALP leaders are on the nose
But Allan IS unpopular whether you guys LIKE it or not. That is facts.
Now South Australia and Western Australia are completely different stories both premiers of those states are quite popular. Chris Minns is not the most popular premier but is more popular than Allan.
I think Zoe Daniel would be best suited to run for Sandringham since that was the most friendly state seat to her on Federal figures, she would have won it. although she will be running against Brad Roswell who would not be easy to defeat. It would be close but Roswell would win (And I say this as someone who voulentered for Zoe and would love to see her win) But I don’t see it.
Brighton was Tim Wilsons best area, and Caulfield with the Jewish population it isn’t happening, the swings in Caulfield was likely due to the Gaza issue.
Interestingly Caulfield has always been held by the conservatives. I find it odd since it had come close a few times in the last 30 years. Surprised that neither Cain, Bracks or Andrews could get the seat under their leadership. but one thing is for sure, it is not happening in 2026.
I am predicting a coalition victory in Victoria but it will be a very narrow majority, and in 2030 Ben Caroll will likely oust the coalition again after 1 term (unless the coalition do well in gov which is doubtful)
Before anyone asks, here are the seats I think the coalition can and will gain that will just get them there,
Pakenham, Bass, Hastings, Frankston, Carrum, Ripon, Bendigo East, South Barwon, Glen Waverley, Bayswater, Prahran (Retain since by-election), Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Ringwood, Sunbury, Monbulk, Bellarine, Yan Yean, Eltham, Macedon, Melton, Mordialloc (50/50), Point Cook (50/50),
Box Hill and Ashwood could hold for Labor however due to demographics. I also expect Labor to get a scare in seats like Oakleigh, Mulgrave, etc, but they should hold by significantly reduced margins like Weribee by-election.
53:47 against does not see a rabble like the Vic Libs pick up 22 seats.
That is not how numbers work.
Wishcasting is one thing but that is certifiable illogic. This is a psephology blog, not the magic faraway tree. The high water mark for the state liberal party was last year. Then the tide went out.
The Australian has further results from Newspoll, finding 59% support for the Suburban Rail Loop with 32% opposed, and asking if respondents were “worried” or “confident” in four different policy areas: state debt (78% worried, 13% confident), law and order (76% worried, 20% confident), hospitals (71% worried, 25% confident) and housing (78% worried, 16% confident).
The list of 22 seats above is a perfectly reasonable list of target seats if the Liberals win the 2PP 52-48. It certainly won’t be if they lose it 53-47.
I’d personally be surprised if Zoe Daniel contested a state seat – her primary policy interests seem to be at national (and international) level. I think she’s more likely to line up for another go at Goldstein in 2028.
Re the vic.government
The SBL needs to be built for the future victorians but ….here lies the problem about 60% of the current population will never use it …hence the cry it’s a waste of money.
We want our hospitals. …..fixed..,pot holes fixed….crime fixed….cheap housing ….railway car parks….etc.etc
Things that matter for this 60% of the population..so they can die happy..
I think at present ALP returned with a decrease in numbers and Jacinta Allan losing her seat(i dont think she should but voter rage to blame someone )so the
60% can relieve some outrage….
But as the new things open up the rage should decrease…
For whoever listed Sunbury as a possible State loss
I live in Sunbury. We will be one of the big beneficiaries of the new metro rail loop when it opens.
Don’t say if it opens. The stuff the Herald Sun is reporting is mostly typical trial issues.
Remember almost 18 months to go to the election
In 18 months, the Metro Rail Tunnel and the West Gate Tunnel will be complete and will have been in operation just long enough that the glow will still be warm. The murdoch hate rags screech about any infrastructure development non stop (muh unions), but fall silent as soon as they’re constructed. Remember the screeching about the level crossing removal project, the confected outrage, and how no one was going to be able to sell their house? How did that turn out?
If the lnp can’t even manage to be in front at the mid part of the third term, they’re in serious trouble.
@laughtong
And as someone who grew up near Eltham you can scratch that off the target seat list for the Libs for similar reasons (i.e. North East Link). It’s held 59:41 with a very well ingrained local MP and having already been targeted heavily by the Libs in 2018 and 2022 as Matthew Guy is from Montmorency (despite representing neighbouring Bulleen).
It’s a socially left, economically centre seat that Batten, Deeming etc. will not appeal to in the slightest just as Dutton didn’t. At the Fed Election they were absolutely trounced throughout booths located in the seat – in fact several large booths were almost 70:30.
If the Vic Libs ran a highly disciplined campaign focused around the budget and debt while not touching social issues or delving into culture wars they’d still be underdogs but in with a chance, but that’s simply not going to happen.
”
B. S. Fairmansays:
Monday, July 7, 2025 at 2:02 pm
Rex- He went after Deeming in the first 3 months of his term. She couldn’t just take the punishment. It has been dragging on since then.
OTT – Mushroom verdict is in.
”
On the basis of Rochelle’s argument that that it is Allan’s fault because police caught 2 Pedos in Victorian Child care centres, Mushroom killings are also due to Allan.
”
frednksays:
Monday, July 7, 2025 at 4:43 pm
Arky says:
Monday, July 7, 2025 at 9:33 am
…
Voters? It did not help Allan that she came into the job linked with the massive Commonwealth Games fiasco. She’s replacing Daniel Andrews who I know think built up a substantial personal vote as Premier. She’s a woman which means a certain amount of sexism will exist against her. And she hasn’t done a lot yet to really establish herself as a person to the electorate – she needs to get some major interview time to just talk about herself and make herself known as a person, I think, and maybe she’s saving that for the election campaign proper.
..
I think that is a pretty fair summary. Allan really is not well enough defined to hate or love. She doesn’t seem to be dragging down the Labor vote.
”
Oh! She is hated alright because “Allan records dire personal ratings of 30% approval and 61% disapproval compared with 35% and 40% for Liberal leader Brad Battin, who leads 41-36 as preferred premier.”
She should be replaced latest by end of the year. Unfortunately, that is the conclusion from the polls. They like Victorian Labor but hate Allan.
”
William Bowesays:
Tuesday, July 8, 2025 at 3:53 am
The Australian has further results from Newspoll, finding 59% support for the Suburban Rail Loop with 32% opposed, and asking if respondents were “worried” or “confident” in four different policy areas: state debt (78% worried, 13% confident),
“law and order (76% worried, 20% confident), hospitals (71% worried, 25% confident) and housing (78% worried, 16% confident).”
That is called “cognitive dissonance”.
Victorians want SRL, hospitals and housing but they don’t want debt. They except state government to provide magic pudding.
Won’t post the whole song
‘Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate (haters gonna hate)
Baby, I’m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it off (whoo-hoo-hoo
The cullchaa wars …….you gotta hate ,hate hate…..
You’re not a player if you’re hating …
@laughtong, the libs keep telling us the ALP will lose Sunbury and its federal counterpart, McEwen because of some mythical polling they have.
And yet the libs can only ever put up complete dud candidates for these supposed target seats.
The people’s republic of Macedon! Vote for the libs? Nimbin of the South? That Macedon? Will go Green before it goes Lib.
Somehow I missed this news yesterday, these are really encouraging polls for someone who wants the Liberal Party nowhere near government in Victoria. And they are roughly in line with what I expected would happen especially in period after the federal election where the Labor “brand” has rebounded and the Liberal “brand” is damaged.
Importantly, as someone who really wants to see investment in world class public transport and an aggressive move away from car-dependent planning, I’m glad to see that this is now the second poll this year which has shown more support for the SRL than against it (this one an outright & clear majority too). Perhaps The Age will realise, that with support for it only increasing since the last poll that had a question about it even, their relentless attack on the project isn’t working and perhaps they will give it a rest. Wishful thinking maybe.
I have said for a while too that 2025-26 should see a rebound for Labor as projects like the West Gate Tunnel and especially Metro Tunnel finally open. Even though I think the benefits of the West Gate Tunnel might be underwhelming, just the endless construction coming to an end will be a positive. Meanwhile the cost of living crisis continues to ease with inflation stable and interest rate cuts, and budget is shifting to an operating surplus.
And as we all know, Labor are a campaign machine. The Liberals, especially in Victoria, quite simply are not. We’re not even in campaign mode. But it’s hard to imagine that the well-oiled political machine that is Victorian Labor won’t be able to sandbag enough of the 17 seats they need to prevent the Liberals from gaining (I don’t count Prahran as a Liberal seat due to the unusual byelection circumstance, and it’s completely unwinnable for them in a general election) on margins up to 8%, when the two most recent polls now are showing 2PP swings compared to 2022 of only -2% and -3.5%. On those numbers, Labor will still win close to 50 seats.
Most worrying for the Liberals is this deeper analysis by Kos Samaras, and this is in relation to the better of the two polls for the Liberals too:
“Labor is racking up support in fast-growing urban electorates within diverse Melbourne and highly educated constituencies. While the Coalition is piling up votes in ageing, shrinking seats they already hold.”
So, a significant portion of the Liberals’ increase in support from 2022 is occurring in seats they already hold. Not exactly useful when you need to gain 17 seats.
I’d also add that, with the Liberal Party very unlikely to preference the Greens over Labor again like they did in 2022, and Kos’ comment that Labor are racking up support with highly educated constituencies, that probably spells a bit of trouble for the Greens in Richmond, Melbourne & Prahran as well (they will comfortably hold Brunswick).
On Daniel T’s comment about Prahran, Labor & Greens will comfortably combine for between 55-60% of the vote there so there’s probably a <1% chance that Rachel Westaway holds onto her very slim byelection gain that occurred in extraordinary circumstances.
Just an extra comment on Prahran too, since I live in that seat. I did some analysis of the overlapping federal result, including taking into account the early & postal vote and used a method that was probably even more favourable to the Liberal Party than it may have been.
These were the overlapping primary votes that I calculated:
ALP 34.1
GRN 30.9
LIB 27.5
That would clearly have been an ALP v GRN 2CP (likely around 60-40 ALP win); and on 2PP terms, I calculated roughly a 67-33 ALP v LIB 2PP.
So, while federal does not equal state, and the Liberals will clearly do better at a state level than a federal level – they will almost certainly win the primary vote and make the 2CP – they are absolutely not going to outperform their overlapping federal result by +17. Especially in light of Redbridge’s demographic breakdown of where the Libs & Labor are losing or gaining support. Rachel Westaway surely knows she’s just a seat-warmer for 18 months.
Previously, based on the dire polling for Vic Labor, I would have guessed the Greens should regain it quite easily but probably with only around a 55-45 2CP vs LIB. But with Labor’s support clearly rebounding (and I think it will improve as the election nears and they go into campaign mode), especially in educated, inner-city electorates, 2026 is probably Labor’s best chance to regain Prahran and they would likely do so with a 2PP in the high 50s. I can’t see the Liberal primary vote exceeding 33% if they only got 36% at an extremely favourable byelection held when the Libs were polling at their peak.
What a sobering thought that by the time I am 50, Victoria will potentially only have had one non-Labor term of government in my entire adult life.
I always really appreciate your in-depth analysis Trent. Thanks.
Daniel T
What happens if there is a further swing to labor. Do the Liberals double down in the suburban rail loop opposition (59% support even with the Sun and Age constant opposition). Double down on black gangs.
Or do you face reality. The religious nutters may be able to capture a party, but when they do, the electorate want nothing to do with them.
It surprises me Murdoch keeps damaging his papers trying to get the rabble called the Liberals across the line, but he does. John Pesutto tried to deal with the religious nutters and failed in style.
Pop quiz, who is Brad Battin?
The Resolve poll from late 2024 which had a question about the SRL had 43% support and only 27% opposed (with around 30% undecided). Now we get 59% support and 32% opposed (9% undecided). Seems like those undecided about the project are increasingly putting their support behind it despite the constant media attacks.
There’s yet to be a poll that shows more opposition to it I think. The media ran with a poll that asked respondents to rank the importance of various projects, and portrayed the SRL’s low ranking as “most Victorians don’t want it”, but that was misleading. It just meant they wanted other projects, like the Airport Rail, more.
And now that Airport Rail is happening, and will open before SRL East (and eventually integrate with the SRL), I wonder if that’s part of the reason for the increase in support. It’s no longer seen as happening at the expense of Airport Rail.
Victorians love new infrastructure that makes their lives easier, but they hate being ripped off by contractors and unions who extort them halfway through the build.
@Trent
Appreciate your analysis as always, but I do concur with a couple of things,
If SRL and MT were that major to Labor’s chances then why didn’t similar projects or inititives help the Coalition in NSW in 2023? they were seen as highly competent and delivered on infrastructure including transport.
Similarly the QLD state Labor government lost and they built a nee trian station when I lived in QLD in my area, and they did that 50c fare thing which we should also bring to Victoria, and that might switch my vote back if they did so.
The projects will be appreciated my so many but will they switch votes? Well if other big projects like these in NSW and if new train stations couldn’t stop a seat from flipping in QLD. I think it’s overhyped the effect these projects will ultimately have.
I think when the election finally comes, it will be very competetive. and will be decided on issues like the economy, crime (especially youth crime), health, etc.
If Labor fails to improve the 3 issues I mentioned they are in danger of at least losing half the seats I mentioned although that wouldn’t be enough for a coalition majority, it would mean a minority Labor government.
I think Yan Yean, Hastings, Pakenham (Battins backyard), and Bass will be gains for the Libs (>90% Chance) but those 4 seats are the only likely gains, the rest of the seats I mentioned can all be won by Labor if they can become a bit more popular again or if the coalition runs another disaster campaign which you couldn’t rule out.
4 seats would still see Labor with above 50 seats. but that is the best case scenario I see for Labor, only a loss of those 4 seats.
As for Prahran, so you think the only reason the Libs won it was because of Hibbins behaviour? Or was it the Ex-Labor MP contesting and asking his viters to preference the Libs?
I think Rachel Westaway could win but it won’t be easy, she is a new incumbent, and she seems to be building up a following, I remember 6 weeks ago we were in Chapel street and we saw allot of men in suits in her office with Balloons, either a party or forum. But whatever it was, It’s clear they are at least trying to hold. It’s clearly part of their strat, It may not be won by them again, but at least if It’s very competetive it will take resources away from Labor or the Greens.
Do you agree the Libs must win Prahran to get to 45? if they lose it do you agree it would be mathmatically impossible to get to 45 without it?
Jackson Taylor is the best constituency member I have seen in my life, at any level and I have seen some good ones. His social media presence is prolific and I reckon there would need to be a 10% swing statewide for him to lose Bayswater. P.S., he is also avery likeable guy and even Tories rate him in this regard.
If SRL and MT were that major to Labor’s chances then why didn’t similar projects or inititives help the Coalition in NSW in 2023? they were seen as highly competent and delivered on infrastructure including transport.
We are taking Victoria not NSW. Name one project the Liberals delivered the last time they were in power.?
Kennett was the last Liberal premier that delivered any infrastructure protect, and it was all roads.
In Victoria, thanks to the federal Liberal party the Liberals have a reputation of not being able to deliver car parks.
When was the last time Victoria Liberals campaigned on delivering anything, it is always war to wall culture wars. Irreverent crap.
It’s interesting the Liberals have switch from black gangs to youth crime. The don’t seem to have worked out youth, parents and grandparents vote.