Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor (open thread)

Roy Morgan’s third poll since the election appears to portend a return to its usual weekly schedule.

It appears Roy Morgan may have resumed its weekly federal polling schedule, offering a new poll conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1522. This is consistent with its pre-election form and in contrast with its other two polls since the election, which had longer field work periods and bigger samples. The results, however, are much the same: Labor leads 57.5-42.5 on two-party preferred (56.5-43.5 when based on preference flows at the election rather than respondent allocation), in from 58-42 in last week’s result, from primary votes of Labor 36.5% (down one), Coalition 30.5% (down half) and Greens 12% (steady), although One Nation perks up two-and-a-half points to 8.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

494 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. nath, they had to ruin it with a sequel, didn’t they. Except we haven’t woken from that one yet, judging by the title.

  2. The case has been brought by senior Liberal Colleen Harkin who sits on the committee with Mr Battin which approved the career-saving $1.55m loan to Mr Pesutto.

    The loan was to allow him to repay his $2.3m debt to colleague Moira Deeming, avoid bankruptcy, and prevent a potentially damaging by-election in his seat of Hawthorn.

    How on earth does a man who has presumably spent close to two decades earning over 200k a year have less than a million dollars in savings and assets?

  3. Christopher Pyne is and always will be just a private school prefect smug twerp that only existed to bring that Ja’mie King energy to parliament, and Tim Wilson will eagerly be taking his place.

    The thing I admire most about Zohran Mamdani is that he is refreshingly honest about the policies he intends to stand behind. Especially the attitude when challenged about the more dubious ones like “city-owned grocery stores”, “faster buses”, etc, he generally answers pretty freely “Well, if they don’t work, then I’m happy to change them. Life’s complicated, things happen, adjustments have to be made.”

    I like that in politics.

  4. Ashasays:
    Wednesday, July 2, 2025 at 4:21 pm
    The case has been brought by senior Liberal Colleen Harkin who sits on the committee with Mr Battin which approved the career-saving $1.55m loan to Mr Pesutto.

    The loan was to allow him to repay his $2.3m debt to colleague Moira Deeming, avoid bankruptcy, and prevent a potentially damaging by-election in his seat of Hawthorn.

    How on earth does a man who has presumably spent close to two decades earning over 200k a year have less than a million dollars in savings and assets?
    ===========================================================

    He put his house in his wife’s name. He probably has a lot in super too but that can’t be touched till he retires.

  5. OC

    An interesting feature of the Tesla powerwall is that it monitors extreme weather warnings and keeps the battery at 100% in anticipation of blackouts. Very handy here in the last few days

    That is really good to know. You have probably told us before, but are you part of a VPP with Amber?

  6. Ashasays:

    How on earth does a man who has presumably spent close to two decades earning over 200k a year have less than a million dollars in savings and assets?
    ____________________
    It’s expensive dining at Vue de Monde.

  7. Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, July 2, 2025 at 4:21 pm
    Christopher Pyne is and always will be just a private school prefect smug twerp that only existed to bring that Ja’mie King energy to parliament, and Tim Wilson will eagerly be taking his place.
    _________________
    I’d rather have a drink with Pyne than you. At least I’d be guaranteed a laugh and an interesting conversation.

  8. nath,
    I saw a stage version of The Queen & I in Adelaide in 1995 (at Her Majesty’s Theatre!). In that version the royal family had been deported and lived in Salisbury North (poor suburb of Adelaide). William joined a gang.

  9. nath @ #412 Wednesday, July 2nd, 2025 – 4:08 pm

    Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, July 2, 2025 at 4:21 pm
    Christopher Pyne is and always will be just a private school prefect smug twerp that only existed to bring that Ja’mie King energy to parliament, and Tim Wilson will eagerly be taking his place.
    _________________
    I’d rather have a drink with Pyne than you. At least I’d be guaranteed a laugh and an interesting conversation.

    Come on, getting defensive about politicians isn’t your style. You’re better than that.

  10. “Moira got her money, but that’s still not enough. They really do want to see Pesutto bankrupted and thrown out of parliament, then presumably stripped, tarred, feathered, frogmarched down Spring Street and then hanged.”
    I wonder at what point Pesutto will resign from the party to run as an independent & counter-sue the party and Mora for extortion & blackmail over the various demands that have been made of him, while also saying that the LNP’s intervention on behalf of Moira means he has already paid the money owed and now it’s up to the Party & Moira to fight over it with his hands washed of the matter.

  11. Ghost Of Whitlam @ #416 Wednesday, July 2nd, 2025 – 4:46 pm

    “Moira got her money, but that’s still not enough. They really do want to see Pesutto bankrupted and thrown out of parliament, then presumably stripped, tarred, feathered, frogmarched down Spring Street and then hanged.”
    I wonder at what point Pesutto will resign from the party to run as an independent & counter-sue the party and Mora for extortion & blackmail over the various demands that have been made of him, while also saying that the LNP’s intervention on behalf of Moira means he has already paid the money owed and now it’s up to the Party & Moira to fight over it with his hands washed of the matter.

    Unfortunately for Pesutto it looks like Moira’s mob are willing to do this until he’s either destitute or dead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XmpaClDlSw

  12. There is little chance of Pesutto being destitute.
    He clearly has arranged his affairs to protect his assets.
    He just wants someone else to pay
    If he is nominally bankrupt it would be unfortunate for him, but he will survive (the people making the claims know this too)

  13. ”So are Melania and Barron Trump ‘rats’? Because they live in New York City? ”

    And the President himself for that matter, New York born and bred. Or maybe he’s an honorary redneck…

  14. Ericsays:
    Wednesday, July 2, 2025 at 4:40 pm
    nath,
    I saw a stage version of The Queen & I in Adelaide in 1995 (at Her Majesty’s Theatre!). In that version the royal family had been deported and lived in Salisbury North (poor suburb of Adelaide). William joined a gang.
    _______________________________
    🙂

  15. I think some may have missed the sarcasm in my earlier post.

    Edit: Taut buttocks – lol. You’re making that up; nobody has ever seen him from behind.

  16. This is the text i promised a night or two ago. Kilne’s podcast on Mamdani. Not a criticism, but good to reflect on the changing nature of politics and how ots messaged.

    So I think you can cut politicians into these two categories. There are the politicians for whom you can identify a policy that stands for them immediately. “Build the wall”— that’s a policy, but it’s a metonym for Donald Trump. “Medicare for all” for Bernie Sanders. The Green New Deal for A.O.C.

    Mamdani — he had four or five, right? It was: “Freeze the rent.” It was free buses. It was free day care. It was publicly owned grocery stores. All of these are actual policies, and they’re worth talking about, but they’re mimetic.

    Hillary Clinton running against Bernie Sanders had 70 policies — but none that actually defined her.

    I cannot give you the policy that stands for Kamala Harris. The same is true for Brad Lander and a bunch of the other people in this campaign.

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    Which is not to say they didn’t have them. They had them.

    Brad Lander had a depth of policy on his campaign website in this mayoral race that I only associate with presidential campaigns. It was so detailed, and a lot of them are great.

    Brad Lander was my choice in the campaign. But I said, when I wrote this piece about him: There are politicians who communicate about policy, and there are politicians who use policy to communicate.

    And you can lament that what modern media is doing is flattening down policy to this sort of bumper-sticker level of mimetic communication. And I kind of do lament it — but it’s also true.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/28/opinion/ezra-klein-show-chris-hayes.html

  17. There was another ANAO audit report into navy procurement released last week, this time on the cost of sustainment (maintenance and upgrades) of the Canberra class LPDs. In warships, over their 30+ year lives, maintenance can cost more than the construction cost. Canberra class sustainment cost is on track to greatly exceed their build cost.
    https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025-06/Auditor-General_Report_2024-25_50.pdf

    I realise most people don’t read these, but the details are illuminating. Its damning of BAE, the same company that has the Hunter frigate build contract and will probably get the SSN AUKUS build, if it ever happens.

    S2.64
    “the report concluded that the original decision to sole source
    the TISSC to BAE was a valid mitigation for transition issues but ‘the poor performance by BAE [had] negated this decision.’

    S2.65
    “The report stated that Defence had not exercised its contractual rights and had instead stepped in to perform work on behalf of BAE.
    80 It was also reported that in some instances, Defence had ‘provided cost relief for poor performance’ by allowing BAE to delay work that had not been completed on time until the ships’ next availability (irrespective of whether delays to that work were caused by Defence or BAE).”

    Figure 4.1 shows that the Canberras have a higher defect rate than our 30 year old Anzacs.

    This all happened back under the Liberals (2014-2019).
    Why do we keep giving defence work to firms that fail?

    Not much point spending 3.5% of GDP on defence if we can’t contract basic maintenance correctly.

  18. I’m guessing the mayor was a Liberal?

    An outback shire unfairly dismissed two staff, used restricted funds to cover shortfalls and improperly employed a man working remotely from a Carribean island, Western Australia’s government watchdog has found.

    Those are just some of the issues identified by a comprehensive audit of the Shire of Coolgardie by the office of WA’s Auditor-General, casting significant doubt on the small council’s future.

    The audit found that a former employee who questioned former chief executive James Trail about whether he was manipulating the council’s tender processes was one of two people involved in unfair dismissal claims that were settled by the shire for a combined $150,000.

    The audit, which covers the 2023-24 financial year, also alleges the council’s purchasing policies were not followed in regard to a $1-million housing project.

    It also revealed that a charter airline that sued for $214,203 had no formal agreement with the council.

    The audit confirmed the shire was in dire financial straits months before Mr Trail was suspended on November 14, which eventually led to his resignation on April 17.

    The shire’s chief financial officer was also suspended on November 6.

    An investigation by external consultants is ongoing.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-02/audit-details-shire-of-coolgardie-viability-concerns/105482862

  19. One for those who still believe the gas industry propaganda that we are facing an imminent gas shortage …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/02/an-impending-gas-shortfall-in-eastern-australia-this-is-just-gas-market-groundhog-day

    For the past few years, the gas market has been stuck in Groundhog Day. Each year the gas producers tell us that the only problem is slow government approvals for new developments. Interestingly governments have approved many new gas developments, for example Santos’ Narrabri gas field was approved in 2020 but is yet to proceed.

    Yet each year we find ourselves in the predicament of imminent shortfalls. Then the government steps in to “negotiate” (or is it beg?) for the gas producers to pretty please provide some extra gas to domestic consumers at a price that won’t cripple them. In response the gas companies miraculously find some extra gas under the couch and dribble out a little bit more, but not too much that it might noticeably reduce prices.

    Some gas producers appear to be engaged in a phenomenon so well known to economists they’ve invented a term for it: “strategic withholding”. This is where a producer knows that if they pull back a bit on production then they can force up prices enough that it will increase their overall long-term profits. So, the government can grant permission to exploit extra gas fields, but that doesn’t mean a producer will give us extra gas if it will reduce prices.

    Of course, facts will make no difference to either Labor’s approval of more gas fields, or to the fossil fools here on PB who cheer them on.

  20. Bean, the very next paragraph of the podcast.

    Abundance has been a big deal — but it’s the word, and there’s all this stuff behind it. And that’s a much more complicated set of conversations.

  21. Another day, another litany of Russian crimes against Ukrainians:

    “‘Tied to a motorcycle and dragged’ — Russia likely executed another Ukrainian POW, ombudsman says”
    https://kyivindependent.com/russia-likely-executed-ukrainian-pow-in-new-war-crime-ukraines-ombudsman/

    “At least 2 killed, 33 injured across Ukraine in Russian attacks over past day”
    https://kyivindependent.com/at-least-2-killed-33-injured-across-ukraine-in-russian-attacks-over-past-day/

    “Russia killed at least 273 Ukrainian POWs during full-scale war, prosecutors say”
    https://kyivindependent.com/russia-killed-at-least-273-ukrainian-pows-during-full-scale-war-prosecutors-say-06-2025/

    And the US chooses now to stop supplies of air defence missiles to Ukraine – while boasting how well those munitions have defended Israel:

    “As Russia ramps up missile attacks, US halts promised air defense shipments to Ukraine, Politico reports”
    https://kyivindependent.com/us-halts-promised-air-defense-shipments-to-ukraine-politico-reports/

    [White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly:] “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran,”

    [U.S. President Donald Trump:] “They [Patriots] are very hard to get. We need them too. We are supplying them for Israel, and they are very effective.”

    Arseholes, these Americans.

  22. D&M
    Yes I have been with Amber for 6 months
    I have also converted the house to all electric and run a EV
    So I get all my energy and car propulsion through Amber’s wheeling and dealing and ususally end up with a credit each month (but not in June when the bill was $50.) This month is also likely to be a bill because I haven’t been selling and keeping the battery fully charged for blackouts
    But this financial boon is nothing compared to my smug self satisfaction

  23. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, July 2, 2025 at 6:15 pm
    Tesla has now applied its mass production expertise to manufacturing liveable Tiny Homes:

    https://youtu.be/7zSyVnWMWQs?si=IaRwOIbgMVhIotlw
    ==============================================================

    There actually made by a Chinese company Boxabl, which has made them for years. Tesla is just adding their brand name to it. I doubt they added much input though.

  24. Guys, can anyone remember the name of the 1970s American show this spoofs? I thought Love Boat, but of course it is not that! Similar era but.

  25. OC

    D&M
    Yes I have been with Amber for 6 months
    I have also converted the house to all electric and run a EV
    So I get all my energy and car propulsion through Amber’s wheeling and dealing and ususally end up with a credit each month (but not in June when the bill was $50.) This month is also likely to be a bill because I haven’t been selling and keeping the battery fully charged for blackouts
    But this financial boon is nothing compared to my smug self satisfaction

    Thanks for this!

  26. @newy boy:
    “I accept the former as a valid destination, if the reason is concern that the US would be under-resourced for its potential needs in Asia, as you suggest. However, I definitely do not accept Israel as a valid destination, if dangers in Asia are supposed to be the reason for the pause in aiding Ukraine’s desperate, legitimate self-defence against Russian invasion and occupation.

    EDIT: I can see you’ve accommodated my point now in your post: “(That being said, they are clearly prioritising Israel over Ukraine. Australia should not kid itself in this regard either.)” I fully agree. This is what I am outraged over.”

    Entirely agreed with you both. Not much we can do about US internal military decisions from here, but I hope Albo doesn’t let this kind of thing guide Australia to back off in our contributions to Ukraine.

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