Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor (open thread)

Roy Morgan’s third poll since the election appears to portend a return to its usual weekly schedule.

It appears Roy Morgan may have resumed its weekly federal polling schedule, offering a new poll conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1522. This is consistent with its pre-election form and in contrast with its other two polls since the election, which had longer field work periods and bigger samples. The results, however, are much the same: Labor leads 57.5-42.5 on two-party preferred (56.5-43.5 when based on preference flows at the election rather than respondent allocation), in from 58-42 in last week’s result, from primary votes of Labor 36.5% (down one), Coalition 30.5% (down half) and Greens 12% (steady), although One Nation perks up two-and-a-half points to 8.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

494 thoughts on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Pi @ #36 Tuesday, July 1st, 2025 – 9:16 am

    “women’s intuition” as a contextless political insult makes people trust women less. It’s substituting “i don’t like him” with “women don’t like him” except you don’t speak for women, and you’ve inserted a discriminatory element, and provided ammunition to anti-women arguments. Those statements make it harder for women to be heard, and easy for people to dismiss them. Totally self-inflicted.

    This is just a silly long bow of an argument…looking for an argument.

    I never said I speak for all women, but what I do say is that I have feelings and perceptions which go beyond the realms of mere ‘context’. Which I am fully entitled to, thanks for asking. I don’t think I’m trivialising the views of Women in general because a similar attribute applies to men, and everyone in-between, but instead it is going on a hunch. Also, everyone intuits things, don’t you? Well, at least I thought most people did. Maybe some aren’t capable of it.

  2. Guys
    I saw an American poll yesterday, which is related America Iran bombing.

    Before Trump bombed Iran only about 15% Republicans supported that bombing.
    Now, about 85% Republicans support Trump’s Iran bombing. Republicans are stupid and cultist.
    Democrats and Independents opposition to Trump bombing remained pretty high 60%(Independents) & 75% (Democrats)

  3. Ven @ #49 Tuesday, July 1st, 2025 – 9:52 am

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 7:07 am
    America is fast becoming a stranded asset. Left behind by the rest of the world to live out its old white man fantasies.
    ”

    C@tmomma
    If America is only cooked because of America’s actions then they are facing consequences for their actions. But that is not the case. Since, America releases world’s 25% carbon emissions, it is cooking the world in the process.

    Swings and roundabouts, Ven. I’m sure that once the powerful old white men’s numbers diminish and Millennials and Gen X and the Zeroes come to dominate America’s society, then things will rapidly turnaround, but America will have to play catch-up in a big way then.

  10. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 8:42 am
    Dozens of Israeli settlers rampaged around a military base in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, setting fires, vandalizing military vehicles, spraying graffiti and attacking soldiers, the military said.
    Sunday night’s unrest came after several attacks in the West Bank carried out by Jewish settlers and anger at their arrests by security forces attempting to contain the violence over the past few days.
    More than 100 settlers on Wednesday evening entered the West Bank town of Kfar Malik, setting property ablaze and opening fire on Palestinians who tried to stop them, Najeb Rostom, head of the local council, said. Three Palestinians were killed after the military intervened. Israeli security forces arrested five settlers.
    https://apnews.com/article/israel-west-bank-violence-bengvir-f455273300795d29a150254855136a5b
    ”

    Are they ‘settlers’. They are behaving like occupiers. Imagine how world will react if Hindus did the same thing in Kashmir?
    Indian government actions will be condemned. There will be sanctions against India. Modi government will be labelled all sorts of things (not that he is not already labelled but that is another story)

  11. Ven @ #37 Tuesday, July 1st, 2025 – 9:20 am

    Although PB Chinese bashers will not like it, Chinese government and people are more smart about their future than USA people.

    Or Australian government and people.

    It’s fairly easy to see where our future lies, and it is not with either the UK or America. Our future prosperity already lies there.

  12. What evidence is therethat Trump even knows Kevin Rudd, let alone doesn’t like him other that the rantings of right wing scribblers?

  13. Good points Ven. I’ve often thought that if Israel treated Palestinians like China treats the Uyghurs, they would be adored and celebrated by the press.

  14. Pisays:
    Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 9:16 am
    “women’s intuition” as a contextless political insult makes people trust women less. It’s substituting “i don’t like him” with “women don’t like him” except you don’t speak for women, and you’ve inserted a discriminatory element, and provided ammunition to anti-women arguments. Those statements make it harder for women to be heard, and easy for people to dismiss them. Totally self-inflicted.
    __________________________
    Germaine Greer ova here.

  15. #OKGrima.

    SL: Although solar panels can be used to curb desertification

    One of the problems that will exist for putting so many solar panels into sun blasted hellscapes (a good part of Australia) is the shade it offers, and therefore the growth in weeds, and therefore critters. Yet another thing that no one considered even ten years ago. By capturing the light, they reduce the energy absorbed by the ground, which means lower temperatures at ground level and less moisture loss. All the little critters think “glory days”.

    On batteries, there are currently 300K EVs on the road in Oz, which is about 15GWh of mobile storage. In ten years time it will likely be 10x that if not more. That’s currently about 25% of the current daily grid draw, and is enough to fully support the grid during the duck curve. And that is just the cars.

  16. President Donald Trump on Monday continued his extended attack against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank’s Board of Governors, calling for ultra-low rates in an intensifying campaign demanding interest rate cuts. Trump on his social media platform wrote that the Fed’s board “should be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen to the United States.” However, officials who sit on the Fed’s board aren’t the only ones who vote on policy moves; that also includes five other regional Fed bank presidents. It’s unclear if Trump meant to attack just the board or all of the Fed officials with voting power.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/powell-fed-trump-interest-rates

    The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.41% to 96.80, with the euro up 0.55% at $1.1783. The greenback has struggled throughout the year, partly due to growing expectations the Fed may become more aggressive in cutting interest rates next year when Powell is replaced as Chair. The dollar is down 10.5% for the first half, which would mark its biggest drop over the first six months of the year since 1973, when the U.S. shifted to a free-floating exchange rate: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-06-30/

  17. Pi:

    Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 9:43 am

    ‘Bow your head lower Mavis. You have to touch your forehead to the muck so that they know you really mean it. Bonus points for kissing the feet.’

    Please stop confirming my opinion of your opinions.

  18. ”
    Granny Annysays:
    Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 10:28 am
    What evidence is therethat Trump even knows Kevin Rudd, let alone doesn’t like him other that the rantings of right wing scribblers?
    ”

    Trump never once mentioned Rudd after he got elected although Nigel Farage elicited a response from him about Rudd before he got elected as POTUS by stating how rude Rudd was to Trump. And Trump is no shy pony.

  19. Ven, Chump couldn’t remember what happened yesterday let alone what Farage said before the election over 6 months ago.

  20. The grifter in chief has absolutely no shame.

    ———-
    Is selling his new men’s cologne for $199 and women’s perfume for $249.

  22. Cartoons from a quite wet Sydney, although I think it will get worse as the day goes on.

    David Rowe

    Megan Herbert

    Katauskas

    Golding

    Benke

  23. ANOTHER POLL

    American pride hits new low under Trump—just in time for July Fourth

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/30/2330977/-American-pride-hits-new-low-under-Trump-just-in-time-for-July-Fourth?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    “Americans’ pride in their country has tumbled to a new low, according to a new poll released on Monday. Not only is pride at its lowest point since Gallup began asking the question in 2001, but the share has fallen 9 points under President Donald Trump this year alone.

    Fifty-eight percent of U.S. adults say they feel extremely or very proud to be an American. A year ago, when former President Joe Biden was in office, that number was 67%. The highest level of American pride Gallup has measured came in 2002 and 2004, when 91% of Americans were extremely or very proud following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

    While Republicans’ pride in being American has increased by 7 points since last year, the decline was precipitous among Democrats (down 26 points) and independent voters (down 7 points).
    ”

    92% Republicans feel proud of their country and only 36% Democrats feel proud of their country.

    Republicans are truly a Trump cultists.

  24. MAGA’s favorite dictator now leads the poorest country in the EU

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/30/2330401/-MAGA-s-favorite-dictator-now-leads-the-poorest-country-in-the-EU?pm_source=ICYMI&pm_campaign=ICYMI06302025

    “There is no foreign leader that MAGA loves more than Hungary’s authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has turned his country into a testing ground for the far-right’s darkest impulses.

    Orbán shares MAGA’s worldview down to the bone: a politics rooted in white nationalism, xenophobia, bigotry toward LGBTQ+ people, fearmongering about immigrants, and open contempt for liberal democratic institutions. He’s taken a sledgehammer to press freedom, and rewritten Hungary’s Constitution multiple times to attempt to entrench permanent one-party rule.

    Who needs a think tank like the Heritage Foundation when MAGA can just follow the Orbán blueprint?

    Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has broadcasted from Budapest. The Conservative Political Action Conference has held meetings there. Former White House adviser Steve Bannon treats Orbán like a prophet, calling him “one of the great moral leaders in this world.” MAGA influencers openly pine for their leaders to rule the way Orbán does: with vengeance, zero accountability, and a chokehold on dissent. Is it any wonder President Donald Trump and Orbán have a fierce bromance?

    But what has all this ethno-nationalism and authoritarianism gotten Hungary?

    Orbán took what was once one of Europe’s rising post-Soviet democracies and ran it into the ground. Today, Hungary is the poorest country in the European Union, while the nation continues to suffer some of the highest inflation rates in the bloc. Ironically, Trump’s tariffs are compounding the country’s ills.”

  25. “Keating is flat wrong to say every new worker will retire with $3 million in super. This assumes an average 22 year old starting wage of $98000(!). The super $3m tax deduction cap reform is a good one, and needed.”

    Yah, i think PJK should really keep out of this one. And, its probably the least relevant argument of any of the bollocks arguments being run against the Super changes.

    Whatever the rules are now regarding indexation of the threshold or its level, a Govt can make changes to that, the same way it makes changes to other laws and regulations. I mean, taxation and super, the levels and mix are NOT issues that are going away.

    Far more relevant at the moment for those concerned about thier Super is the volitility of markets, mainly caused by the US / Trump uncertainty.

    With timelines for various things coming together (tarrifs, their rates, who gets hit with what, postponments, reinstatments, revenge tarrifs, US spending bills, US social unrest …… )

    Albo, Wong and Chalmers are in for a rough time over the next month i think. That said, the economic news at home is in their favor so apart from the RWNuttjobbie / Skynooze crowd i dont think people will complain too much.

  26. Ven, here’s hoping Orban gets turfed out at their election next year. For the sake of more people than just Hungarians.

  27. The player judged best afield in this week’s Carlton vs Brisbane AFL match will be awarded the Robert Walls medal.
    A fitting honour for a great servant of both clubs.

  29. @newy boy:

    I fear that Orban has stacked the deck so heavily in his favour, the only way he’s leaving office is in a casket. Why is it that the truly evil b@stards (Orban, Murdoch, Kissinger, etc. etc.) seem to live so long? “Come to the Dark Side…we have health care!”?

  30. Allan Patience from Pearls and Irritations has a rundown of some world leaders with Chump at the head of the pack. Some highlights;

    An aging generation of mostly male leaders is presently occupying the commanding heights of the most powerful states around the world. They share a similar narcissism, they are intellectually limited, and all are morally bankrupt. The good thing is that they are a dying breed.

    In America, Trump’s narcissism, short attention span, and lack of a moral core are reinforced by the sycophants in his inner circle. They pander to his worst instincts, jockeying among themselves to take over as soon as his days end. In Russia, Putin’s vainglorious ambition to resurrect the defunct Soviet Empire menaces the whole of Europe. In China, Xi Jinping’s ideological reconstruction of Maoist politics threatens nuclear war with the United States over Taiwan. Others include Israel’s Netanyahu whose crimes against humanity in Gaza and the West Bank will condemn him and his government to ignominy forever. In Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei’s Shia regime (which must not to be confused with authentic Islam) is taking his country to the brink of collapse. In North Korea, the badly-barbered Kim Jong-un is destabilising East Asia at the expense of his suffering population.

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/07/the-contemporary-world-is-run-by-political-dinosaurs-facing-extinction/

  31. Mattsays:
    Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 11:34 am
    “Why is it that evil b@stards (Orban, Murdoch, etc. etc.) seem to live so long?”

    “The dark side of the force is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural”

  33. I note that the Victorian Govt is joining SA in having an indigenous advisory group legislated.

    Albo should legislate a Federal ‘Voice’ and get on with truth a treaty.

  34. “These types of antics will continue until the King gives Albanese an audience, and that won’t happen until the Rudd problem is sorted.”

    Mavis has become a bit of a Murdoch mouthpiece on this issue. Surprisingly Stefanovic gave the much better advice. Though Albo can’t tell Trump to bugger off but he can keep his distance and not initiate anything. If Rudd is contributing to this then he is doing his job for Australia.

  36. Rex Douglas @ #83 Tuesday, July 1st, 2025 – 11:08 am

    I note that the Victorian Govt is joining SA in having an indigenous advisory group legislated.

    Albo should legislate a Federal ‘Voice’ and get on with truth a treaty.

    I think it should’ve been done by the state governments first to settle-in the idea in and show an existing working model of how it works, what it does and, just as importantly, what it doesn’t do. I don’t know if that would’ve made the referendum question successful but it could’ve somewhat weakened the ‘No’ case, who partly benefitted from it still being a hypothetical, abstract concept that allows people’s imaginations to run wild.

  39. How different it would have been if the Federal Labor Government had of just legislated The Voice last term instead of going to the referendum.

    Then we would have had at least two and a half terms of Labor, some seven and a half years, to demonstrate what The Voice was really about, and that it wasn’t going to divide and ruin the country.

    No way Labor can just legislate it now as Rex suggests, as it would burn up a lot of Labor’s goodwill.

    It’s too late, a blown chance.

  44. Wat Tylersays:
    Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 11:56 am
    “If people don’t like it, they’re free to vote the state government out at the next election. We’ll see how that goes.”

    It’s a single issue. Shouldn’t influence the near-certain Labor majority by much, if anything.

  46. Imacca

    “ Whatever the rules are now regarding indexation of the threshold or its level, a Govt can make changes to that, the same way it makes changes to other laws and regulations. I mean, taxation and super, the levels and mix are NOT issues that are going away.”

    Right. Saying something is imperfect as a reason not to change now is bad enough. Saying that there is something will be imperfect in 30 years time so don’t change now is ridiculous.

  48. https://thenightly.com.au/opinion/latika-m-bourke-anthony-albanese-sees-landslide-election-win-as-permission-to-remain-mediocre-c-19208206
    __________________________

    “One of the few to earn some sort of escape from these methods has been UK Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer who has gone out of his way to establish a personal connection with the US President.”

    If a key argument is that Albanese needs to be more like Keir Starmer … then I’m afraid we might not be on the same side of the policy spectrum.

  49. “One of the problems that will exist for putting so many solar panels into sun blasted hellscapes (a good part of Australia) is the shade it offers, and therefore the growth in weeds, and therefore critters.”

    Grazing cattle is far greater contributor to weed spread. Desert bushes exist already and do the same thing. The colonising plants under solar arrays are unlikely to be any different then those growing under the salt bushes and emu bushes out there already. Along with the insect critters that live off these plants. The amount of solar arrays to supply the energy needs of all Australia is tiny compared to area of Australian deserts. About 120o square klm of renewables would supply all our energy needs. So an area of about 14% of all the land Gina Rinehart currently owns on which she grazes cattle.

    Though more rains gets under a desert bush than a solar panel. The wet ground area around solar panels will be the exposed lower slope ground edges where the rain runs off the panel on to. So much of your solar panel shaded area will be in a small localised rain shadow as well. So what you gain in the shade might be lost in getting less direct rain

  50. Yeah Pi’s alarm that solar panels equal more ‘critters’ is up there with some of the conservative wind farm ridiculousness.

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