Live Commentary
5:19pm Wednesday July 2: Preferences were distributed last night, and Mamdani defeated Cuomo by 56.0-44.0.
12:42pm With 90% in, Mamdani leads Cuomo on primary votes by 43.5-36.3. This looks over, but US media won’t call it until the preferential vote tabulation next Tuesday. After the November general election, NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.
11:49am With 81% in, Mamdani leads on primary votes by 43.8-35.7. If Mamdani’s lead holds up on the remaining votes, he’s very likely to win. Most polls have been very wrong about this contest. The preference tabulation is not until next Tuesday.
11:26am With 54% in, Mamdani’s primary vote lead over Cuomo has been reduced to 43.5-35.4.
11:09am Already we have 38% of votes in, and Mamdani leads Cuomo by 43-34 on primary votes. But these are early votes, and election day votes may be better for Cuomo.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
The New York City (NYC) mayoral general election will be held in November. But NYC is strongly Democratic, so the winner of today’s Democratic mayoral primary is likely to win the general. This election uses Australian-style preferential voting.
Polls close at 11am AEST today, but only primary votes will be counted, with the first tabulation of preferences to be held in a week. It will be optional preferential voting, with a maximum of five preferences allowed. Voters won’t number each box as in Australia. Instead, they’ll be presented with five columns. The left column will be the first choice (primary vote), with the fifth column corresponding to the fifth preference. US ballot papers are intended to be read by machines, not hand counted.
It would be better if NYC and other US jurisdictions that use preferential voting had an indicative two candidate count on election night between the two candidates who were thought likely to make the final two. This would mean they wouldn’t usually have to wait for the preference tabulation to call a winner.
Andrew Cuomo was the Democratic governor of New York state from 2011 until his resignation in 2021 owing to sexual harassment allegations. He was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. Despite the circumstances of his resignation as governor, Cuomo has a clear lead after preferences in most NYC mayoral polls.
Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani (a socialist) are very likely to be the final two candidates, with Cuomo leading Mamdani by double digit margins after preferences in many polls. However, a late Emerson College poll gives Mamdani a four-point lead over Cuomo after preferences.
Current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for re-election as an independent. Adams was indicted last September on federal bribery and fraud charges, but in February federal prosecutors were ordered to dismiss all charges against Adams, who is seen as close to Donald Trump. While the primary uses preferential voting, the November general election will use first past the post. Emerson College polls suggest either Cuomo or Mamdani would easily win in November.
Trump’s national US ratings and Israeli polls
At time of writing on Tuesday, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls was -6.0, down from -3.7 in early June, with 52.0% disapproving and 45.9% approving. Trump’s net approval on his strongest issue (immigration) has fallen about eight points since early June to -4.1, perhaps owing to the reaction to his handling of protests in Los Angeles.
G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said in polls taken before Trump announced the US bombing of Iran on Saturday night US time, 57% opposed this action while 21% supported it. This compares with 54-41 support for initial military action against ISIS in 2014, 71-27 support for Iraq in 2003 and 88-10 for Afghanistan in 2001.
The next Israeli election is not due until October 2026. Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect its 120 MPs, with 61 needed for a majority. At the November 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and allied parties won a majority for the right with 64 seats. This election ended a run of five elections in four years.
Current polls give the governing parties combined about 50 seats, with about 65 for the opposition parties. An Arab party that is not part of either the government or opposition has the remaining five seats. Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has not made a difference.
Can we please keep this thread relevant to the subject of the post. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I think the winner is cricket.
I am glad I am not a New York voter, nor someone who has any influence/endorsement power regarding the race. I really think being so hung-up about a race for a Mayor of a foreign city is not worth it. So many people are treating this like a battle for civilisation itself. It’s frustrating. Reminds me of back in the first Trump era when there would be a race for dog catcher somewhere and someone from the DSA decided to run and suddenly, all the terminally online left would act like the race was a battle for America’s soul and the advancement of socialism, when most voters just saw it as a local race for someone to just do the job and address the issues that office requires.
If I were a New Yorker, I guess, of the two frontrunners, I’d prefer Mamdani over Cuomo – not for any histrionic online reasons but just because I can’t ethically square with the idea of politically rehabilitating a disgraced serial sexual harasser (whose resignation was demanded by many high ranking Democrats at the time.) If you can, good for you, but it kind of undermines the high ground liberals have been claiming over the years (and I don’t care how many female political figures you can find to say forgive and trust him.)
Democrats finally pick a fresh face for key House leadership role
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/24/2329849/-Democrats-finally-pick-a-fresh-face-for-key-House-leadership-role?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
Fun fact, Mamdani’s mother is Mira Nair, a great film director. I’d recommend watching Mississipi Masala it’s a great movie.
Wat Tyler
“…when most voters just saw it as a local race for someone to just do the job and address the issues that office requires”
For a local race there sure has been a weird emphasis on a certain foreign country during every debate, press conference, interview etc
Mamdani appears to have this. Lander in 3rd place and Mamdani endorsed each other, so you’d expect the 11.6% of Lander primaries to strongly flow to Mamdani and ensure he stays ahead of Cuomo. The rest of the candidates have about 9% combined and are presumably a mixed bag.
@ Wat Tyler: I think this race is being seen as a proxy fight for establishment Democrats vs the Democratic Socialists who back AOC and backed Mamdani, and also an example for how harder left Democrats like Mamdani can win a campaign.
Now, it’s New York City, and the establishment candidate is a disgrace I can’t believe had the gaul to run (let alone received establishment backing again), but the AOC Democrats will certainly take heart from a Mamdani win and also seek to copy his campaign elsewhere.
Looks like he’s done it, incredible considering where things started and the machine he was up against
why didn’t Kathryn Garcia run again 🙁
Zohran Mamdani’s policies are similar to those of Bernie Sanders. Wealthy interests have been desperately trying to stop him from winning, partly by trying to portray him as an antisemite. $25 million in PAC money has been spent on the effort to defeat him in this primary. That is an extraordinary amount for a municipal primary race.
He is extremely talented and authentic, as the following clip from Stephen Colbert’s show demonstrates.
https://youtu.be/u8HOFyDAt_M?si=nFOqParxwXHJOKk0
Cuomo concedes…
ETJust Now
Dana Rubinstein
Cuomo applauds Mamdani for a “really smart” campaign. “Tonight is his night. He deserved it. He won,” Cuomo says.
NYTimes..
Claire Fahy
June 24, 2025, 10:28 p.m. ETJust Now
Claire Fahy
The mood in the room at Cuomo’s election party, which was subdued throughout the night, is largely unchanged. Attendees, who all stood as the former governor spoke, have returned to their conversations. Many have headed for the exit.
Jeff Mays
June 24, 2025, 10:28 p.m. ET1 minute ago
Jeff Mays
Zohran Mamdani is expected to address the crowd at his Election Night party a little after 11 p.m. “We’re incredibly grateful for the voters across all five boroughs who, inspired by our vision for a better, affordable future, showed up in record numbers to make their voices heard,” said Elle Bisgaard-Church, Mamdani’s campaign manager.
Don’t like Mamdani and Cuomo. It is very unfortunate that they are primary candidates.
Democrats will not win general election with candidates like these.
OMG Mississippi Masala… I saw that on SBS maybe 30 years ago. Was ahead of its time.
It seems that Mamdami’s campaign turned out to be a runaway success. I don’t think any poll had him leading Cuomo on primary votes, but at the moment it looks like he’s leading by 7 points. At this rate he might even get 50%+1 before preferences are fully distributed.
Hopefully the Democrats get the right messages on how to campaign, even if some of his policies seem a bit dubious, at the very least he’s shown that he passionately believes in them, which is more than can be said for Cuomo as well as the Congressional leadership under Jeffries and Schumer.
Such a great movie hey!
Also stoked for Mamdani, he really had the entire democratic system up against him. There was even a hilarious video of Sam Sutton, a New York state senator in a bomb shelter in Jerusalem saying that Mamdani wants to erase the Jews in New York.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/new-york-mayor-cuomo-mamdani-results
These are excellent policies.
Decent outcome, though in the meta I wonder if a big part of US political disillusionment at home is a result of “too much” democracy – when every party primary, then local government office, then stat, then federal reps, are all being voted on all the time, it must get exhausting.
I mean, we complain about our relatively short 3-year cycles in Australia, but it feels like Americans are voting (or being campaigned at) constantly.
The amount of elections Americans can choose to participate in is truly crazy. It is surprising how much attention this election got, I presume it’s because it’s the biggest election for the Democratic party since the presidential election, and could augur the future of the party. It is especially notable because the right-wing of the Democratic party is currently ascendant despite being unable to convincingly win an election in 13 years. It also is worth mentioning that Mamdani ran on New York issues and didn’t get baited into the many, many, many, nonsense allegations lobbed against him. He stayed focussed on a message that actually had broad popular support and won convincingly (still shy of 50% but well ahead of 2nd place)
Glad to see that the predator didn’t win (and FWIW, I am glad he conceded properly and didn’t throw out a “rigged” cry.) Mamdani was a decent campaigner and, to his credit, he actually went out there to win voters over, and didn’t just try to win Twitter.
I wish him the best of luck in the general. I hope that he wins and that Adams doesn’t spoil the election. And, if he wins, I hope New York is a better place for it.
While I don’t have any shade towards Cuomo’s voters (insulting necessary voters is counter-productive), I am really ashamed of those Democratic Party figures, especially from interstate, who endorsed him, despite what a problematic figure he is – just to prevent the progressive candidate from winning. Not only does that stink of hypocrisy and morally undermine you but it fuels the conspiracy theories about the “establishment.”
Bizzcan @ #19 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 1:15 pm
People wonder why political apathy is so high there and voter turnout, especially during midterm and off-year elections, can be low. I’d switch off too, if I was constantly barraged by it.
Will the NY Mayor Election in November be ranked choice as well? Or is it just the Democratic Primary that’s ranked choice?
Either way, probably won’t make much of a difference if it’s Mamdami (D) v Adams (I) v Republican, even if Eric Adams is pretty much a Republican in all but name.
I already get annoyed at having to do council elections (seriously, can we merge them into the state elections already). Having to vote every few months and where you might have to vote for 30 offices like the council chief dog shit pickeruperer, the fire department vice-regal commissioner, cemetery board, coroner and non-stop recalls & school board elections must be exhausting.
No, RCV is only for primaries and special elections, and only for city offices.
Wat Tyler @ #23 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 2:07 pm
Ah, okay, so Mamdami would win pretty easily in a FPTP election then since it’s New York City we’re talking about and he’s got too high of a profile to go down to Adams or a Republican.
Oh and Anthony Weiner’s attempt at a political comeback (he was running for Council) also failed, likely losing to the unfortunately named Harvey Epstein.
Bad night for disgraced sexual predators. Better night for those who have unfortunately similar names to sexual predators.
New York City had an estimated population of 8.48 million in July 2024. So the mayor presides over an electorate larger than in many US states, or even countries. From that perspective it is worthy of discussion, especially as the primary has used a form of preferential voting.
https://www.nyc.gov/content/planning/pages/planning/population#:~:text=New%20York%20City%20is%20home,people%20as%20of%20July%202024.
Here’s an amuse bouche for you about excessive electioneering. I lived in College Park, Maryland (home of the Terrapins) for 13 years (just recently moved away). All of the city council elections are held in odd-numbered years, with none of the state and federal races on the ballot. Half the council seats are up in a given year, and the mayor is elected every other cycle.
In the most recent round of city elections, they had an “advisory referendum” on whether they should have fewer elections by consolidating the city council elections into one election every four years. The turnout for that referendum was about 10 percent, and yet… among those 10 percent, fewer elections lost. (Funny thing, it turns out the cranks, weirdos and local gadflies who show up to vote in elections with 10 percent turnout really like voting! Who would have guessed?)
You could not script a better demonstration of the proposition that holding more elections does not mean you have more democracy.
“NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.”
No, NYC is not “likely” to have a socialist mayor. It’s possible. But it’s too premature to say it’s “likely”
Cuomo could run as an independent, and as far as I’m aware. he already had the nomination of a few smaller NY parties. (Liberal or Independence) I can’t remember which.
Allot of moderate Democrats in NYC could vote for Cuomo in the general, and if Adams drops out, will he back Cuomo? I wouldn’t rule it out.
It’s not over. Wipe that smirk off your face AOC.
Daniel I think an endorsement from Adams would kill Cuomo, who already seems dead in the water. If only 36 percent of people who actually care will vote for you then how do you convince everyone else who doesnt? He might barely do better than a republic candidate but the Democratic margin is like 76 percent, it’s doubtful itll make a big impact. Cuomo had only one speed and that was Mamdani is a nazi, like Dutton here it was hardly a compelling message
Daniel T @ #30 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 4:35 pm
This after Cuomo making a graceful concession speech today would pretty much prove to everyone how morally worthless and despicable the Democratic establishment truly is.
“You stupid socialists didn’t vote the way we wanted you to, so therefore we’re going to use all the backroom evil power we have to ratfuck the candidate you voted for (on first preferences no less) to teach you a lesson in trying to fight back against us, even if it means we continue to lose to Republicans for 40 years.”
Dude, just take the L.
NYC also isn’t a lock. NYC elected Republican backed candidates from 1993-2009 (Bloomberg was endorsed by GOP in 2009)
Crime is a massive issue in NYC. Silwa obviously won’t win. He is way out of his league. My question is, Why didn’t Rudy run? Rudy would have had a shot of winning since he was known as “Americas mayor”
If Cuomo doesn’t run. Maybe Bloomberg runs to stop “the far left”? Remember at the 2019 Dem debates, he warned nominating a socialist was a bad move. He mainly ran to stop Bernie. would he run here to avoid the seemed inevitible happening in NYC?
If an endorsement from Adams would kill Cuomo, then what if he backs the Dem candidate? Also Adams is still likely got many black voters still on his side. Who likely are more establishment Democrat, they would never back the Dem nominee. I think they would go to Cuomo if Cuomo still runs.
Yeah, I think Giuliani is known for other, less flattering stuff nowadays.
What about that Donald Trump fellow? He seems like a popular and well-connected businessman with a colourful personality. Plus he has that TV show. His home city would love him. I bet he’d romp it in and do a great job as Mayor.
”
Wat Tylersays:
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 at 5:16 pm
What about that Donald Trump fellow? He seems like a popular and well-connected businessman with a colourful personality. Plus he has that TV show. His home city would love him. I bet he’d romp it in and do a great job as Mayor.
”
🙂
ain’t no rule saying you can’t be the president and a mayor. I’m surprised he hasn’t come up with some grift to make maralago a piece of sovereign tribal land so he can do what he wants with it.
“Remember at the 2019 Dem debates, he warned nominating a socialist was a bad move”
That turned out to be great advice didn’t it.
@Daniel: Did this comment just arrive in a time machine from 2001? Today’s Rudy Giuliani wouldn’t win an election for head butler at Four Seasons Total Landscaping.
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/why-ppp-saw-mamdanis-win-coming/
Why PPP saw Mamdani’s Win Coming
June 24, 2025 | pppadmin
PPP saw Zohran Mamdani’s first place finish coming before anyone else did for one simple reason: we polled the 2025 electorate instead of the 2021 electorate.
Usually when polling a primary election pollsters start out with a list of voters who have participated in similar elections in the past.
It was clear in this election though that Mamdani was building a movement that was going to bring a lot of people into the process that had never voted in a city election before. So we made a conscious decision not to require people we polled to have voted in 2021. If they said they were going to vote on our screening question that was good enough.
https://greattransformation.substack.com/p/the-democrats-just-had-their-tea
Only the Democratic party would be blindsided by somebody running on the most popular issues with support across voters of both parties
The fact that the majority of pollsters dont poll new voters or non-voters is interesting, could help explain Biden, Harris and Clinton being out of touch, as the party has become more poll obssessed in the wake of David Shor. Im hoping this will finally get them to listen to their voters like they have been begging them to do for years now.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/25/nyregion/nyc-mayor-election-results-map-mamdani-cuomo.html
This comment section took a sharp turn towards the schizophrenic.
Perhaps the post-election hysteria is at play here. There’s a lot of overreading into a mayoral election (albeit for a population of 8 million) with the establishment’s choice of candidate being a long-discredited has-been several years past his use-by date. I wouldn’t treat this as more than a good campaigner defeating a historically terrible candidate. Wider implications for the Democratic party as a whole are quite out of step.
This reminds me of 2017 – the left made a big push after Trump’s first victory and made some important breakthroughs, and achieved a lot of success, but it didn’t transform the Democratic party overnight. This might signal another push but there will also be a lot of flops from imitators of Mamdani and it’s unclear just how much success there will be compared to 2017.
I think the mood is that many Democratic voters are elated to have somebody worth voting for. As we’ve seen the Democratic left essentially be purged since Trump 2, to this election which saw the entire republican and democratic establishment collaborate to spend upwards of 25 million dollars to quash Zohran and fail spectacularly, it feels good and it shows that, actually, popular support can work in a democracy.
The Trump regime is ruining many peoples lives, the establishments in their ivory towers seem to not have a clue whats going on, theirs alot of people who probably don’t vote much, who are now willing to vote for anyone that is showing real fight against whats happening at a national level.
My thoughts too Nick. We’ve been seeing the centre and right wing democrats foolhardedly try and launch their whole abundance agenda to crickets, while Bernie and AOC’s massive rallies, No Kings the LA protests have all shown there is a real grassroots movement that is being ignored. Being the party of educated rich friendly politicians is meaningless when the Republicans are soooo far to the right and so willing to give the rich everything they want. Not once in the last campaign did the Democrats even point out that Trump wants the army and government abducting people from their homes and schools, which, surprise surprise, is deeply unpopular now that it’s happening.
The party leadership seems petrified of being called socialist or left wing so they just retreat within themselves while the rest of the country just wants to see some real conviction
I agree with the above comments – this was about an energetic candidate and campaign with genuine grassroots support defeating a tired, scandal-ridden, has-been.
I caution against depicting this as an ideological battle – which a lot have been tempted to do, on both the centre and the left. Certainly Zohran’s policies appealed to many – but it’s about finding messaging that fits what the electorate was looking for. There are ways for less explicitly left-wing candidates to tap into “progressive patriotism”. For example, Pat Ryan or Ruben Gallego, who both outperformed Kamala signficantly.