Polls: JWS Research post-election and Lowy Institute on foreign affairs (open thread)

Some post-election findings on how people voted and why, and the Lowy Institute’s annual survey on how Australians perceive foreign affairs.

JWS Research has published a post-federal election survey report along the same lines of a similar effort after the 2022 election, conducted May 6 to 8 from a sample of 1000. Key findings:

• Labor did distinctly better among those who voted early (encompassing postal as well as pre-poll voters), with 42% of those aged 65 and over but only 20% of those aged 18 to 34 reporting having voted more than a week out from election day, with a respective 25% and 47% voting on election day itself.

• Labor did much better among late deciders: 26% of Coalition voters said they always voted that way with only 10% saying they decided on the day they voted, whereas the respective figures for Labor voters were 17% and 16%. Of those who decided in the final week of the campaign, 39% voted Labor and 23% Coalition, compared with 38% and 30% in 2022.

• Forty-three per cent reported being at least party guided by how-to-vote cards (47% of Labor voters, 50% of Coalition and 32% of Greens), down from 49% in 2022, with 56% saying they made up their own mind (52% Coalition, 49% Labor and 65% Greens), up from 49%.

• Forty-nine per cent of Labor voters identified a favourable view of the party as the main motivation for their choice, followed by 23% for the leader, 18% for policies or issues and 7% for the local candidate. Among Coalition voters, 56% named the party, 20% policies or issues, 13% the local candidate and only 9% the leader.

• Eighty-three per cent found it easy to fill the lower house ballot paper compared with 8% for difficult, while 61% rated Senate voting easy and 22% difficult.

• Sixty-three per cent reckoned the election campaign important, up from 56% in 2022, compared with 16% for not important, down from 15%.

• Labor’s campaign was rated more positively than the Coalition measure on 11 of 12 measures, the exception being “a source of false/misleading information”, for which both scored 30%. The two most emphatic results both related to Trumpet of Patriots, whose campaign was rated “annoying” by 57% and a source of false/misleading information by 40%.

The Lowy Institute has published the full report of its annual survey of attitudes to foreign policy, conducted from March 3 to 16 from a sample of 2117. A taster was provided early in the election campaign in the shape of a question on which leader would be more competent at handling foreign policy, on which Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton 41% to 29%.

The survey finds trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world at 36%, down 20 points on last year and by far the worst result going back to 2006 (the previous low being 51% in the last year if the first Trump presidency). Eighty per cent nonetheless continue to hold that the US alliance is important to Australia’s security, down three on last year; 57% say Australia should remain close to the US rather than distance itself, down seven, and 63% hold that the US would come to Australia’s aid if it were attacked. Support for the AUKUS nuclear submarines plan was effectively unchanged on last year, with 67% in favour and 32% opposed. While an even 49% supported and opposed Trump’s demands that US allies spend more on defence, opinion of seven other keynote Trump policies was negative, with mass deportations of undocumented immigrants at the low end (42% support, 56% oppose) and tariffs (18% support, 81% oppose) and pressuring Denmark over Greenland (10% support, 89% oppose) rating worst.

A regular question on whether China should be viewed more as an economic partner than a security threat produced a net positive result for the first time since 2020, with respective results of 50% and 47%. Nonetheless, 69% believed China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, down two from last year, 56% believed it would be the most powerful country in ten, compared with 27% holding out for the United States. An even 45% considered Trump and Xi Jinping the “more reliable partner for Australia”. Japan scored highest out of eight major countries as trusted to act responsibly in the world, at 90%, with China on 20% and Russia 11%. A “confidence in world leaders” question had the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and Ukraine rated positively by between 59% and 63%; Peter Dutton doing a good deal worse at 41% and 52%; and only Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un rating worse than Donald Trump.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,433 comments on “Polls: JWS Research post-election and Lowy Institute on foreign affairs (open thread)”

Comments Page 48 of 49
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  1. Although the result is 58-42, I should point out that Morgan poll has a swing of 0.5% towards the LNP. The super changes are hurting the government in the polls.

  2. Ven – King David’s kingdom of Israel never came close to Persia.
    At the time David ruled there was no unified state of Persia/Iran – this was still centuries in the future.

  3. B. S. Fairman:
    Although the result is 58-42, I should point out that Morgan poll has a swing of 0.5% towards the LNP. The super changes are hurting the government in the polls.

    Election now!

  4. B. S. Fairman @ #2351 Tuesday, June 24th, 2025 – 6:44 pm

    Although the result is 58-42, I should point out that Morgan poll has a swing of 0.5% towards the LNP. The super changes are hurting the government in the polls.

    In the interests of fairness and a sustainable Budget, those 0.5% of ultra wealthy superannuants can suffer in their jocks because they’re upset about it.

  6. “Although the result is 58-42, I should point out that Morgan poll has a swing of 0.5% towards the LNP. The super changes are hurting the government in the polls.”

    We’re not actually trying to read tea-leaves on a half point, well within the margin of error movement on a Morgan Poll are we?

    The movement could just as easily be non-existent. Or if it does exist, be due to the Northwest Shelf or the wars or just some honeymoon gloss fading or whatnot.

  7. Well we know the ALP has lost the vote of our very own Three Million Dollar Man….Albo weeps into his cornflakes every morning at the loss

  10. Vensays:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 6:40 pm
    ”
    Entropysays:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:44 pm
    Thanks, I will withdraw my comment about the poster whose name alludes me on this issue. Till the actual Bradfield TPP result is known.
    ”

    I know who that is but I won’t name that poster.
    ============================================================

    I could find out if I wanted to trawl through the old late counting thread. Except I sort of couldn’t be bothered. So wrote my comment without remembering their name.

  11. Well there was one contributor to this site who was saying the Libs would lose both Menzies and Deakin in Melbourne based on Liberal Party polling – and he/her has not been seen since (banned?)

  13. C@tmomma:
    In the interests of fairness and a sustainable Budget, those 0.5% of ultra wealthy superannuants can suffer in their jocks because they’re upset about it.

    You cold, heartless woman! My thoughts and prayers go out to the likes of Rex Douglas.

  15. Shogun @ #2362 Tuesday, June 24th, 2025 – 6:56 pm

    C@tmomma:
    In the interests of fairness and a sustainable Budget, those 0.5% of ultra wealthy superannuants can suffer in their jocks because they’re upset about it.

    You cold, heartless woman! My thoughts and prayers go out to the likes of Rex Douglas.

    I think he’ll survive okay. As will they all. 🙂

    Though it’s a telling lead indicator of how hard real reform will be for the government this term. They’ll just have to take the bit between their teeth though.

  21. C@tmomma, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 6:57 pm:

    They are seeming to forget they ain’t such a big Opposition anymore:

    Anthony Albanese criticised for ‘vindictive’ move after Coalition MPs see staff numbers slashed
    Opposition to lose about 20 personal roles including 16 senior adviser positions in finalised staffing allocations

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/24/anthony-albanese-criticised-for-vindictive-move-after-coalition-mps-see-staff-numbers-slashed

    If you ask me, that headline and opening framing in that article is what is vindictive.

    2022
    Labor: 4.89 staff per MP/Senator
    Coalition: 1.18 staff per MP/Senator

    2025
    Labor: 4.08 staff per MP/Senator (down 0.81)
    Coalition: 1.21 staff per MP/Senator (up 0.03)

    What a pack of whingers this Coalition mob are. They’ve gone up in staff per MP/Senator and the Government has gone down. And how spiteful of The Guardian to spin these figures into an accusation of ‘vindictiveness’ towards the Government.

  22. Mostly Interested, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:09 pm:
    ——————-

    I love it when I hold up a mirror facing towards another mirror.

  23. About the time of david the zhou started the longest dynastic range in chinas history and introduced “The mandate of heaven”, ending in the warring states.

  24. newy boysays:
    And how spiteful of The Guardian to spin these figures into an accusation of ‘vindictiveness’ towards the Government.
    _______________________
    Stooge. The Guardian were quoting what the Opposition were saying, they were not accusing the government of anything.

  25. The opposition is supposed to be prepared in case they have to take over as the government. That is why each shadow minister gets advisors. That is why it is important to be the Official Opposition.

  26. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 6:57 pm
    They are seeming to forget they ain’t such a big Opposition anymore:
    ===========================================================

    Plus a much bigger Government. Yet they cut overall Government staff numbers too.

  27. Trump job approval:
    Approve 45.9%
    Disapprove 52.0%
    Don’t know 2.1%

    Trump net approval on the issues:
    Immigration -4.1
    Trade -12.7
    Economy -13.0
    Inflation -23.6

    (source: Silver Bulletin)

  29. nath, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:17 pm:

    newy boysays:
    And how spiteful of The Guardian to spin these figures into an accusation of ‘vindictiveness’ towards the Government.

    Stooge. The Guardian were quoting what the Opposition were saying, they were not accusing the government of anything.

    Stooge yourself! The GA headline ‘conveniently’ omitted to cite the Coalition as the author of the ‘criticism’ in its headline, which would have been expected if they were aiming to frame this story as the Coalition criticising the Government. ‘Slashed’ is also quite emotive language to use, and emotions loaded towards the Coalition viewpoint, for a news outlet trying to deliver straight reporting.

    Also, why did they choose to describe a decrease of 17 staff as a decrease of ‘about 20’? That’s a strangely large rounding up of reality if they were aiming to report this straight.

    They also failed, throughout the article, to contextualise the Coalition’s complaint in terms of staff per MP/Senator, as I did in my post. A curious oversight, given the number of figures they were prepared to include in their article.

  30. Arky says:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 6:53 pm
    “Although the result is 58-42, I should point out that Morgan poll has a swing of 0.5% towards the LNP. The super changes are hurting the government in the polls.”

    We’re not actually trying to read tea-leaves on a half point, well within the margin of error movement on a Morgan Poll are we?

    The movement could just as easily be non-existent. Or if it does exist, be due to the Northwest Shelf or the wars or just some honeymoon gloss fading or whatnot.
    中华人民共和国
    Could be the Xyclons from the planet Zorg vote that William Bowe alluded to in the Late Count thread????

  31. newy boysays:

    Stooge yourself! The GA headline ‘conveniently’ omitted to cite the Coalition as the author of the ‘criticism’ in its headline, which would have been expected if they were aiming to frame this story as the Coalition criticising the Government. ‘Slashed’ is also quite emotive language to use, and emotions loaded towards the Coalition viewpoint, for a news outlet trying to deliver straight reporting.
    _________________________
    I think you were made by stooges in a stooge factory. Do you guys just roll out every 3 months and are directed to Poll Bludger?

  32. nath, wow! I get TWO uses of the word ‘stooge’ in a post directed at me. You must really really mean it.

    How can I qualify for this:

    /image

    WHERE’S MY THREE STOOGES???

  33. If I thought I could get away with the gag a 3rd time I’d give it a shot, but perhaps in this case I should be like Australia and just keep my head down.

  36. Mostly Interested, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:42 pm:
    ——————

    You bet! nath’s post made my evening. I’m hoping he’s not done!

  37. newy boysays:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:40 pm
    nath, wow! I get TWO uses of the word ‘stooge’ in a post directed at me.
    ===========================================================

    You must be new here. It is nath’s favourite word and he uses it constantly. Mainly to compensate for his inability to mount a persuasive argument and that other problem that he has that we want name.

  38. nathsays:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:34 pm

    I think you were made by stooges in a stooge factory. Do you guys just roll out every 3 months and are directed to Poll Bludger?

    ____________________

    What do you call a Labor voter unhappy about the superannuation changes?

    … Stooge McDuck

    A group of teen Greens voters are playing Mario Party…

    … They are having a Greens party party party!

    A liberal voter goes to the USA and discovers he hates NASCAR. Why?

    … The drivers only turn left!

  39. Entropy, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:45 pm:

    newy boysays:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:40 pm
    nath, wow! I get TWO uses of the word ‘stooge’ in a post directed at me.

    You must be new here. It is nath’s favourite word and he uses it constantly. Mainly to compensate for his inability to mount a persuasive argument and that other problem that he has that we want name.

    Oh! He has THAT, has he? Is that why he always goes on about women he’s ‘courted’/wants to ‘court’?

  42. Richard Marles getting a hard time on the ABC.
    Hopefully it will discourage moving closer to the US Position. It would have been better if nothing was said.

  43. newy boy says:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:48 pm
    Entropy, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:45 pm:

    newy boysays:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:40 pm
    nath, wow! I get TWO uses of the word ‘stooge’ in a post directed at me.
    You must be new here. It is nath’s favourite word and he uses it constantly. Mainly to compensate for his inability to mount a persuasive argument and that other problem that he has that we want name.
    Oh! He has THAT, has he? Is that why he always goes on about women he’s ‘courted’/wants to ‘court’?
    中华人民共和国
    Nath is ok in my books. We’ve had the odd blue on here over the years but he does keep we stooges honest.

    Whilst he may not give Labor number 1 on the Ticket he has always advocated preferences above the Tories.

    As for the “stooge” name. I treat it like a badge of honour. Like the “Rats of Tobruk”. Indeed the knees up organised in Sydney Town this Friday by mine hosts C@t and Fess is officially a “Stooge Dinner”.

    So I give Nath due deference. Though he and Dear Lars did question my inside running before the last poll – which like Scott this time was pretty close to the knocker.

    Whether you be a Labor stooge, Labor partisan or member of the Fossil Fuel Cabal- treat those pricks and barbs as a badge of honour.

    Nath is a good stick in my books.

  44. Back to Earth:

    “Assassination attempt on Zelensky detailed ahead of planned Nato meeting with Trump”
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-casualties-putin-trump-zelensky-live-news-b2774889.html

    Volodymyr Zelensky says he is planning to meet with US president Donald Trump on the sidelines of the two-day Nato summit, after details of an assassination attempt against the Ukrainian president were revealed.

    Ukrainian security services said that in an attack planned last year, a retired Polish military officer who had been a sleeper agent for Russia was recruited to assassinate Zelensky at Rzeszów Airport in Poland.

    Polish media reports that the attack was thwarted in April 2024 by Poland’s internal security agency, and the man, identified as Pawel K, was charged in May this year.

    Those revelations come as waves of Russian drones and missiles in and around Kyiv overnight killed 10 people including one child, Ukrainian officials said on Monday.

    As the hostilities continued, the British defence ministry said more than a million Russian soldiers had died or suffered injuries so far.

    The think tank put Russian deaths at around 250,000 and total casualties, including the wounded, at nearly 950,000, the Guardian reported.

    The Ukrainian death toll is reportedly between 60,000 and 100,000, and total casualties are at about 400,000.

    Is this the same Russia as this one?

    “Russia issues chilling warning: If Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei is killed, there will be devastating consequences”
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/russia-issues-chilling-warning-if-iran-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-is-killed-there-will-be-devastating-consequences/articleshow/121979299.cms?from=mdr

  45. [‘Bruce Lehrmann has lodged an application seeking a permanent stay of two charges of rape alleged to have occurred in Toowoomba, west of Brisbane, in October 2021.
    The application seeks a declaration that intercepted phone calls between Mr Lehrmann’s lawyers and Queensland police were “illegally obtained”.] – Aunty

    An application for a permanent stay is usually based on the ground that an accused can’t get a fair trial due to the publicity surrounding the alleged criminal conduct. Such applications are rarely granted, as they can be cured by a judicial direction to the jury. I
    don’t know enough about the circumstances of this application, but I’d cautiously suggest that Lehrmann’s clutching at straws. His matters are listed for mention on June 25 in the Ipswich District Court.

    https://criminalcpd.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Stay_Paper__Russell_Sweet.pdf

  47. Upnorth, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:59 pm:
    —————-

    Don’t you worry. Nath’s put me in a good mood this evening. Any blog needs folk like him to keep us from taking ourselves too seriously.

  48. Dear Entropy, and any others (looking at you Steve777) who have been shooting their mouths off in regard the 2PP count in Bradfield this evening and the potential for Labor to win Bradfield.

    It was I, High Street, who made the comment about Labor being very likely to win the 2PP in Bradfield, and we have today, opinions from both Kevin Bonham and Ben Raue, that I was… how do I put this delicately…. BLODDY WELL RIGHT!!!

    Refer here:
    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60797
    and here:
    https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1937281400421630017

    Note Kevin Bonham states: They’ve published one (an estimate) in order to archive the results but it’s obviously not accurate.

    The actual AEC website states, directly about the 55/45 figure:

    “With public commentary about the potential for a petition to the Court of Disputed Returns regarding the result in Bradfield, the additional TPP count for Bradfield could not be conducted at the time of the final tally room’s publication. As such, a mathematical equation was applied to approximate the TPP for Bradfield”.

    It’s still unclear to me why the public commentary is a driver of what the AEC does or doesn’t do. Given that Kevin Bonham at least, has stated that the figure published is inaccurate – by up to 6%!! – the AEX MUST acknowledge that “public commentary” is that the AEC have published a very inaccurate figure and that they should do an actual count when the time for court case has elapsed.

  49. newy boy says:
    Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 8:05 pm
    Upnorth, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 7:59 pm:
    —————-

    Don’t you worry. Nath’s put me in a good mood this evening. Any blog needs folk like him to keep us from taking ourselves too seriously.
    中华人民共和国
    That’s the spirit cobber. Mine at the moment is a single malt. Wonderful that certain airlines have wifi on international legs. Why can’t Qantas? First world problems.

  50. The response to Victoria’s comprehensive new home electrification policy from the organisations that matter has been overwhelmingly positive. It was strongly endorsed by Rewiring Australia: “Victoria’s efficiency standards are nation-leading and we strongly encourage other states to urgently take similar steps to reduce household bills.”*.

    While Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel was disappointed** that gas heaters in existing homes were not included, he also regards it as nation leading and thinks that the “way that this has been characterised in the mainstream media is odd … To say that it’s some massive backflip is passing strange.”***

    Friends of the Earth No More Gas campaigner Freja Leonard said phasing out gas appliances for rentals and new homes was “energy policy made sexy” and a “triumph for energy justice, economic common-sense and climate” that would benefit Victorians for decades to come.***

    *https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/blog/gas-phase-out-will-reduce-bills
    ** https://reneweconomy.com.au/victoria-extends-gas-ban-to-all-new-homes-and-hot-water-systems-sets-strict-rules-to-electrify-rentals/
    *** https://theenergy.co/article/nation-leading-electrification-reserves-gas-for-industry

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