JWS Research has published a post-federal election survey report along the same lines of a similar effort after the 2022 election, conducted May 6 to 8 from a sample of 1000. Key findings:
• Labor did distinctly better among those who voted early (encompassing postal as well as pre-poll voters), with 42% of those aged 65 and over but only 20% of those aged 18 to 34 reporting having voted more than a week out from election day, with a respective 25% and 47% voting on election day itself.
• Labor did much better among late deciders: 26% of Coalition voters said they always voted that way with only 10% saying they decided on the day they voted, whereas the respective figures for Labor voters were 17% and 16%. Of those who decided in the final week of the campaign, 39% voted Labor and 23% Coalition, compared with 38% and 30% in 2022.
• Forty-three per cent reported being at least party guided by how-to-vote cards (47% of Labor voters, 50% of Coalition and 32% of Greens), down from 49% in 2022, with 56% saying they made up their own mind (52% Coalition, 49% Labor and 65% Greens), up from 49%.
• Forty-nine per cent of Labor voters identified a favourable view of the party as the main motivation for their choice, followed by 23% for the leader, 18% for policies or issues and 7% for the local candidate. Among Coalition voters, 56% named the party, 20% policies or issues, 13% the local candidate and only 9% the leader.
• Eighty-three per cent found it easy to fill the lower house ballot paper compared with 8% for difficult, while 61% rated Senate voting easy and 22% difficult.
• Sixty-three per cent reckoned the election campaign important, up from 56% in 2022, compared with 16% for not important, down from 15%.
• Labor’s campaign was rated more positively than the Coalition measure on 11 of 12 measures, the exception being “a source of false/misleading information”, for which both scored 30%. The two most emphatic results both related to Trumpet of Patriots, whose campaign was rated “annoying” by 57% and a source of false/misleading information by 40%.
The Lowy Institute has published the full report of its annual survey of attitudes to foreign policy, conducted from March 3 to 16 from a sample of 2117. A taster was provided early in the election campaign in the shape of a question on which leader would be more competent at handling foreign policy, on which Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton 41% to 29%.
The survey finds trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world at 36%, down 20 points on last year and by far the worst result going back to 2006 (the previous low being 51% in the last year if the first Trump presidency). Eighty per cent nonetheless continue to hold that the US alliance is important to Australia’s security, down three on last year; 57% say Australia should remain close to the US rather than distance itself, down seven, and 63% hold that the US would come to Australia’s aid if it were attacked. Support for the AUKUS nuclear submarines plan was effectively unchanged on last year, with 67% in favour and 32% opposed. While an even 49% supported and opposed Trump’s demands that US allies spend more on defence, opinion of seven other keynote Trump policies was negative, with mass deportations of undocumented immigrants at the low end (42% support, 56% oppose) and tariffs (18% support, 81% oppose) and pressuring Denmark over Greenland (10% support, 89% oppose) rating worst.
A regular question on whether China should be viewed more as an economic partner than a security threat produced a net positive result for the first time since 2020, with respective results of 50% and 47%. Nonetheless, 69% believed China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, down two from last year, 56% believed it would be the most powerful country in ten, compared with 27% holding out for the United States. An even 45% considered Trump and Xi Jinping the “more reliable partner for Australia”. Japan scored highest out of eight major countries as trusted to act responsibly in the world, at 90%, with China on 20% and Russia 11%. A “confidence in world leaders” question had the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and Ukraine rated positively by between 59% and 63%; Peter Dutton doing a good deal worse at 41% and 52%; and only Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un rating worse than Donald Trump.
Windover: “The whole point of having a rules-based world order is to ensure even the strongest nations must curb the exercise of their power over others. By doing so, weaker nations can see there is value in complying with the rules.”
That seems like an awfully idealised perception of our world. Any order in our world, such as it is and isn’t, rarely affects the decision makers, and is more about maintaining the status quo. I mean there’s an overlapping set of interests, sure, but that’s about it. The dynamic is changing, but this has collectively been one of the most prosperous times in history. Over the past 50 years, billions of people have been raised out of poverty. America? Not so much, but that’s in no small part to them coming off a century long bender. Mostly self inflicted the latest stuff. It’s about what the big ones will accept from each other, and the little guys benefit from them/us not getting killed on their behalf.
I read somewhere today that there is about 15GWh of EV battery capacity on the roads today in Oz. That’s a lot and it’s gonna easily be 10x that. Fixing up the backyard works for ourselves.
When Hastie found out about it he put a stop to it straight away.
Hastie has plenty of real shortcomings. His command response in that instance was not one of them.
==============================================================
His response on finding out what he should of known from beginning was correct. He failure of oversight when it was occurring is not. He was in charge, that was his job. He failed spectacularly being in charge. As by his own admission he didn’t know what was occurring for a very long time.
The AEC has published preference flow data from the election:
============================================================
While this might have been stated before?
I noticed Bradfield had a 2PP LNP vs ALP count. Someone has really got egg on their face. As Liberal won that about 55:45. I can’t remember who it was but someone was claiming that Labor would be ahead of Liberal in that 2PP and they were nowhere near it.
Entropysays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:09 pm
I noticed Bradfield had a 2PP LNP vs ALP count. Someone has really got egg on their face. As Liberal won that about 55:45. I can’t remember who it was but someone was claiming that Labor would be ahead of Liberal in that 2PP and they were nowhere near it.
_____________________
Probably Scott.
E
Rubbish. Officers cannot be everywhere all the time.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:15 pm
Entropysays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:09 pm
I noticed Bradfield had a 2PP LNP vs ALP count. Someone has really got egg on their face. As Liberal won that about 55:45. I can’t remember who it was but someone was claiming that Labor would be ahead of Liberal in that 2PP and they were nowhere near it.
_____________________
Probably Scott.
=========================================================
It wasn’t Scott who hardly got anything wrong except to underestimate how many seats Labor would end up. I think he underestimated Labor’s performance in Qld.
So is the fact that Scott got most of his predictions spectacularly correct. While you got all of your election predictions spectacularly wrong by a huge margin. Something that you still having trouble coming to terms with? Similar to how global warming has shown to be real and you’re still in denial.
Taylormade @ #2304 Tuesday, June 24th, 2025 – 4:45 pm
Yeah, Scott ended up being right about the election, while Coalition supporters on here were pre-emptively gloating about the inevitable Coalition win or Labor being reduced to an awkwardly formed and terminal minority government.
Entropy says:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:24 pm
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:15 pm
Entropysays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:09 pm
I noticed Bradfield had a 2PP LNP vs ALP count. Someone has really got egg on their face. As Liberal won that about 55:45. I can’t remember who it was but someone was claiming that Labor would be ahead of Liberal in that 2PP and they were nowhere near it.
_____________________
Probably Scott.
=========================================================
It wasn’t Scott who hardly got anything wrong except to underestimate how many seats Labor would end up. I think he underestimated Labor’s performance in Qld.
中华人民共和国
The Pied Piper. He was sure Boele would lose. Smile emoji
Whingers&Whiners:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/24/anthony-albanese-criticised-for-vindictive-move-after-coalition-mps-see-staff-numbers-slashed
Remember when Pommie whingers were supposed to be a thing?
Are Aussie whingers now a thing?
I’m a bit puzzled that there’s a final Bradfield TPP, because the AEC was all like “we don’t want to disturb the ballots while there’s a prospect of a legal challenge”. But it’s presumably legit because the results have been “archived” now, which represents the point where everything is published and there won’t be any further change.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:30 pm
Remember when Pommie whingers were supposed to be a thing?
Are Aussie whingers now a thing?
中华人民共和国
Get a lot them on here BW. I blame Daylight Saving. The Poms did first in WW1.
That Bradfield TPP isn’t “real”: “A mathematical equation was applied to approximate the TPP for Bradfield”.
Scott was unnervingly accurate about the election. Even when all the evidence said otherwise.
Was this a matter of a broken clock being right twice a day or the master prognosticator at work?
I think Scott backed the ALP to win 100 seats in 2022.
Labor has never won Bradfield, just as it had never won North Sydney. I never thought it would or could win in May. Bradfield in particular is classic affluent Liberal heartland. The Teal candidate will have taken votes from Liberal, Labor and Greens. Most of the Liberals voting Teal would most likely have stayed with their party had there been no Teal candidate running. Many of the Labor and Green converts were tactical, who would have stayed with their preferred party had there been no Teal candidate.
nath says:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:39 pm
Scott was unnervingly accurate about the election. Even when all the evidence said otherwise.
Was this a matter of a broken clock being right twice a day or the master prognosticator at work?
I think Scott backed the ALP to win 100 seats in 2022.
中华人民共和国
Bludgertrack was his guiding beacon. He followed the evidence and his instincts. Even our own William Bowe thought Bludgertrack might overstate the ALP vote.
Well done Scott. Nath are you coming to the grog up Friday? How can I get you a Crownie??? I hate debts.
Thanks, I will withdraw my comment about the poster whose name alludes me on this issue. Till the actual Bradfield TPP result is known.
”I think Scott backed the ALP to win 100 seats in 2022.”
If he did, it turned out he didn’t miss by much. Definitely closer than my mid 70s.
UpNorth, nothing would give me greater pleasure than to attend the ‘Triumph of the Stooges’ party on Friday. Unfortunately I only enter Sydney when looking for good cocaine.
Also, the debt has been repaid my friend. Remember you purchased a beverage for C@t on my behalf.
nath says:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:47 pm
UpNorth, nothing would give me greater pleasure than to attend the ‘Triumph of the Stooges’ party on Friday. Unfortunately I only enter Sydney when looking for good cocaine.
Also, the debt has been repaid my friend. Remember you purchased a beverage for C@t on my behalf.
中华人民共和国
Damn that is correct! Well I shall organise a toast to your good health. I will make it to Melbourne one day. Will drop a “line” to you. Stay safe matey.
Earlier today, BW wrote: “But I do have to advise you that ‘per capita’ only really counts when it is ‘China per capita’. When it is ‘Australia per capita’ it simply does not exist for the Bludger’s whingers, cringers and whiners.”
Firstly, I’ve got nothing that will satisfy the whingers, cringers and whiners. In terms of China, while they have a fair way to match us for per capita solar, they are doing pretty well in terms of RE:
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/renewable-electricity-capacity-growth-by-country-region-main-case-2017-2030
More importantly, as I posted a while back, their emissions may have peaked:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-just-put-chinas-co2-emissions-into-reverse-for-first-time/
Whether or not their emissions will continue to decrease, in short: dunno. For a longer answer:
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/clean-energy-china-emissions-peak/
Cheers Upnorth!
Steve777says:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:46 pm
”I think Scott backed the ALP to win 100 seats in 2022.”
If he did, it turned out he didn’t miss by much. Definitely closer than my mid 70s.
============================================================
Your number is much closer to the 2022 result. I think you are confusing 2022 with 2025.
Yeah, it most definitely was just a case of a broken clock being right. However, considering how many now suspiciously absent people acted like they were sources of infallible political wisdom because something they predicted actually came true (even though they would’ve always predicted that outcome), I think it’s fair for him to take the W this once.
”I think you are confusing 2022 with 2025”
Yes, I missed that the 100 seats was for 2022, not the election we just had.
Boerwar at 5:29 pm
Cutting the Opposition’s adviser numbers is probably doing them a favour. Both major parties have been using these taxpayer-funded positions to incubate their partisan brats; Mr Lehrmann is probably the worst example of that. Fewer kids engaging in branch stacking, or damaging their bosses by playing childish political games, will be no loss to the community. And it might force the Liberals to look for candidates who have proven themselves in real life, as distinct from student politics.
”
Deesays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 3:54 pm
I thought this was interesting.
Sometimes the mental imagery we form from the news is very different to reality.
https://youtu.be/HOFHCyfrJ9M?si=tmnnoVptE8fFNQ-B
”
There is a perception amongst white people that all these countries belonging to brown and black people are hellholes. It doesn’t matter if they are destroyed. They are uncivilized barbaric people. Their cultures are third rate. 🙁
Victorian Liberal Party, the clown show that keeps continuing.
Herald Sun 24/6: Legal threat could block Pesutto’s $1.55m loan and end his political career
In an explosive development in the John Pesutto-Moira Deeming saga, a Supreme Court challenge is being considered to overturn the Liberal Party’s loan.
”
Arkysays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 3:14 pm
@Dee:
“Russian state tv pissing themselves mocking Trump.”
Odd thing to be watching, Russian state propaganda. You do you though.
Both Iranian and Israeli TV saying ceasefire. Whatever the timing was actually meant to be it all seems to be settling down now.
Some people here really need to get a grip. I sense a lot of disappointment at the ceasefire because predictions of an invasion and World War 3 etc etc haven’t come true.
”
There is saying” just because you cleaned and mopped your home, it is not a day of festival “.
Another saying “the crocodile festival is in future”
Apparently Iran has launched missiles against Israel just now. Israel has stated it will respond to the violation.
ABC News now:
Israel to break the cease fire with powerful strikes against Iran occurring now.
You know what’s weird? People who read propaganda, believing that understanding that it is propaganda, makes one immune to its effects.
Breaking news: Israel Defence minister has directed IDF to retaliate by bombing Tehran as per Channel 9 News.
So the ceasefire didn’t last very long.
According to Channel 9 News, Albanese government is under pressure for what is happening in ME.
I have been saying all day Trump’s ceasefire is just like the 1973 Paris Peace Accords that supposedly ended the Vietnam war but of course didn’t stop anything but American involvement.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9921-federal-voting-intention-june-24-2025
Morgan Poll. 58- 42
Albo in trouble clearly.
Thank God a poll. War is boring.
”
Confessionssays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 6:07 pm
So the ceasefire didn’t last very long.
”
As per Trump assured us not a single shot will be fired between Israel and Iran once Ceasefire comes into force.
There is a saying “a dog’s tail is always crooked” i.e. even if you try very hard to make a dog tail straight it always reverts back to its original shape.
The last three days of energy generation in SA : https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=3d&interval=30m&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
”
Nicksays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 4:08 pm
I guess this was just another hollow victory to try and make Trump look good. But in reality Iran will continue on the path of getting nukes more than ever before. Mainly so they can get Israel\US off there backs.
How do we square the narrative for a supposed evil regime above anything else, when we look at their response to being attacked as best described as charade more then anything else, including prewarning the US about it… gee how evil is that!
We are suppose to believe they are gonna drop a Nuke on Israel if they had the chance, yet they are way too afraid to piss off the US in reality, let alone Russia and China.
Gaslighting at its finest!
”
Was old Persia part of King David empire?
If so, shouldn’t Iran be part of Greater Israel?
Yes, thank god, a poll!
Thankyou BSF. Thankyou.
Pi says:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 6:14 pm
The last three days of energy generation in SA : https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=3d&interval=30m&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
______________________
105.8% RE
Nice to see Albo introduce some DOPE for the Coalition. Australia has roundly rejected the LNP, it’s time for a Department Opposition Party Efficiency.
Ley should lie back and pretend it’s Jacinta counting the price of their office staff and cutting it.
”
Windhoversays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 4:34 pm
The whole point of having a rules-based world order is to ensure even the strongest nations must curb the exercise of their power over others. By doing so, weaker nations can see there is value in complying with the rules.
Trump by his criminal convictions shows he has no regard to rules. By his actions internationally, in respect of punitive tariffs and unlawful bombing of Iran, he demonstrates that international rules and norms are irrelevant to him whenever it suits him.
For these reasons we in Australia should accept that any alliance, arrangement or agreement with the USA is worthless. How long we should pretend things are otherwise really depends on our gullibility and our gumption.
A “ceasefire “ with Iran is irrelevant since there are no applicable norms to regulate its breach, other than the rule of the more powerful.
”
+1
Roy Morgan: “Greens supporters have a positive Government Confidence Rating of 111.5.”
Greens voters seem so different from greens political party members.
”
newy boysays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 4:34 pm
William Bowe, Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 2:33 pm:
The AEC has published preference flow data from the election:
https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDefault-31496.htm
Turns out pollsters were right to juice up One Nation’s flow to the Coalition, which went from 64.3% to 74.5%. But they hadn’t reckoned on a new record Greens flow to Labor of 88.2%, up from 85.7%.
Thank you, William.
There’s a strange 1.44% of voters who went:
1. Green
…
Coalition
…
Labor
…
”
Why does that surprise you? Quite a ex-Liberal, who cannot stomach Liberal party antics and are environmentally conscious, voted/ vote Greens and preference Liberals over Labor.
”
Entropysays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:09 pm
The AEC has published preference flow data from the election:
============================================================
While this might have been stated before?
I noticed Bradfield had a 2PP LNP vs ALP count. Someone has really got egg on their face. As Liberal won that about 55:45. I can’t remember who it was but someone was claiming that Labor would be ahead of Liberal in that 2PP and they were nowhere near it.
”
There are lots of voters in Bradfield people who never voted Labor ‘1’ in their life.
”
Entropysays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 5:44 pm
Thanks, I will withdraw my comment about the poster whose name alludes me on this issue. Till the actual Bradfield TPP result is known.
”
I know who that is but I won’t name that poster.