Mid-week miscellany: federal poll drought edition (open thread)

Some observations on when regular federal polling might be expected to resume, and the Tasmanian state election that could potentially give us something to chew on in the meantime.

The potential for a Liberal legal challenge to the result in Bradfield remains the only complication to a resolution of the federal election, with a 40-day period for the lodgement of such a challenge to commence when the Australian Electoral Commission returns the writs, which it must do by July 9. The impasse also stands in the way of a final resolution of the national two-party preferred result, with the AEC relating it is loath to disturb the ballot papers as required to complete its Labor-versus-Liberal count for the seat. The current progress result recorded for the seat on the AEC site is stuck at an early stage accounts for only about 10% of the total, and is evidently dominated by strong areas for the Liberals. With full results available for all other seats, the final result looks likely to land at 55.2-44.8 to Labor.

We remain in something of a limbo on the federal polling front. Roy Morgan had the first voting intention poll of the term last week, but has apparently not resumed its normal weekly schedule. Peter Lewis of Essential Research says his agency’s normally fortnightly poll is “on a post-election sabbatical/hiatus for a few months”. Experience suggests Newspoll in The Australian may be another month away, and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers perhaps another month more.

Never fear though, for a snap Tasmanian election may shortly be upon us, just 14 months after an election at which the Liberals held on to power with the support of a now alienated cross-bench. The state’s Governor currently considering Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s request for a dissolution following last week’s parliamentary no confidence motion. I’ll have a post up on that when the situation becomes clearer, and if an election indeed ensues, will put together a guide for it as fast as humanly possible and set to work on live results. Local hero Kevin Bonham relates that the window for such an election is in the four weeks between July 19 and August 9.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,596 thoughts on “Mid-week miscellany: federal poll drought edition (open thread)”

Comments Page 31 of 32
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  1. The U.S. Air Force has made an unprecedented mass deployment of KC-135 and KC-46 aerial tankers across the Atlantic from bases on the American mainland, fuelling considerable speculation that the aircraft may be intended to participate in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian War. The number of aircraft has continued to rise, and was reported in the late hours of June 15, West Coast time, to have exceeded 30 tankers. Tankers from multiple Western countries have been reported to be participating in supporting Israeli Air Force aerial refuelling efforts to facilitate strikes on Iran, raising the possibility that these newly deployed tankers may be intended to similarly refuel Israeli assets. Another significant possibility is that the aircraft are intended to refuel U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy fighters and bombers should the United States more actively enter the war. The U.S. is already an active participant in hostilities, and has deployed THAAD air defence systems and AEGIS destroyers to support efforts to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles being fired at Israeli targets.

  2. Mavissays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 3:49 pm
    Kirsdarke:

    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 3:44 pm

    Agree. I’d like to know if the brass planned it that way.
    ===============================================================

    Possibly they did?

    It would be a good TACO strategy for them. If they believed Trump would want more military parades in the future. They may have nipped it in the bud with this lame event.

  3. shiftaling @ #1496 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 3:44 pm

    Is the earthquake at the nuclear facility definitely a natural phenomenon (and a coincidence) or is there some possibility of something more sinister?

    Non-technical person asking what’s almost certainly a very stupid question

    2.3 Magnitude is a pretty weak earthquake so it was probably just a coincidence, and was most likely linked to a more stronger 4.3 magnitude quake near the Iran-Pakistan border. Small earthquakes are common in Iran after all, since the border between the Eurasian and Arabian plates run through the country to the South.

  4. The South Australian government has threatened to intervene if a nearly $30 billion takeover bid for the state’s largest company Santos is “not in the interests of South Australians”.
    Santos told the stock exchange on Monday that it had received a takeover offer from a consortium led by XRG, the international investment arm of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
    The consortium, which also includes US private equity firm Carlyle, intends to acquire all Santos shares at $8.89 per share — a nearly 28 per cent premium on its last closing price of $6.96. The offer values the oil and gas company at about $28.8 billion.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-16/sa-government-issues-warning-over-santos-takeover-bid/105421282

  6. Holden – The tankers might be being positioned for a potential resupply effort akin to Operation Nickel Glass. I can’t see any European country volunteering to be a resupply base in this conflict so they might be flying out of Israel.

    The Iranians seemed to have been caught out on Friday and were not able to launch much, just their drones which were easy to shot down. Now the local level commands seem to have been communicated with and they are launching ballistic missiles which the Iron dome is being overwhelm by at times.

  10. There is history of the SA Government and SANTOS – from Bond and Bonython, Chair of SANTOS, approaching Dunstan (which was unprecedented Bonython of the Establishment)

    And guess who SANTOS’s banker was at that time?

  11. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 4:00 pm
    Socrates

    Sorry but I have no confidence in Marles.

    _____________________

    Probably why he is being chaperoned by Wong.

  12. Entropy:

    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 3:53 pm

    ‘Possibly they did?

    It would be a good TACO strategy for them. If they believed Trump would want more military parades in the future. They may have nipped it in the bud with this lame event.’

    Yes, you’re probably right. I viewed quite a few US military parades over the years & they’re unusually very well executed, but not that one – for example, the funerals of FDR and JFK:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFPhbYko5JQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aK3iOgS4Jk

  15. Mavis at 3.36pm

    Thanks for the link to Jesse Dollemore’s opinion of the big birthday parade.

    Some of the comments were better than the video.

  16. From https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-condemns-kremenchuk-attack-warns-of-further-energy-strikes/:

    Following his call with Putin, Trump claimed he would be “open” to the Russian president acting as a mediator in the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Zelensky rejected the idea of Putin — who has waged war against Ukraine for over 10 years and has taken no steps towards a lasting ceasefire — playing the role of peacemaker.

    Putin “is war itself,” Zelensky said, urging the international community not to fall for “Russian manipulation and lies.”

    Wow. Putin, Trump, Netanyahu and Khamenei all sitting round a table, discussing ‘peace’. Is this the sickest joke of all to come out of this past three years? I’d call those four (plus Kim) the world’s current ‘Axis of Evil’.

  17. shiftaling @ #1496 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 3:44 pm

    Is the earthquake at the nuclear facility definitely a natural phenomenon (and a coincidence) or is there some possibility of something more sinister?

    Non-technical person asking what’s almost certainly a very stupid question

    Most probably the butterfly effect from Donald after returning to the White House and jumping up and down in a screaming tantrum at the very underwhelming reaction to his birthday big beautiful military dawdle by.

  19. The federal Liberal Party is preparing to dump the two octogenarian Victorians appointed to oversee the troubled NSW division, a fortnight after ex-Victorian treasurer Alan Stockdale questioned whether the prevalence of assertive women required protecting men.

    Under a draft plan conveyed by four senior Liberal sources, who all spoke on the condition of anonymity citing party rules barring speaking with the media, the administrative committee’s term would expire on June 30. It would probably be replaced by a seven-person committee chaired by a Liberal luminary.

    Under the plan, the NSW division would be steered by a five to seven-person committee from July 1, with representation from each of the three factions plus an independent chair appointed to oversee the party’s constitutional reform process, according to three sources privy to the proposed changes.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-firm-on-dumping-victorian-elders-after-assertive-women-comments-20250616-p5m7rf.html

    Not sure what the point is other than optics. The Liberals know what they need to do to arrest the decline in their vote because the past election reviews have told them what to do. In addition they should:

    1. Decouple from the Nationals while in opposition, freeing them up to have their own policies, esp on climate change that appeal to the sensible centre.

    2. Introduce mandatory preselection quotas for women to 50% of winnable seats.

    3. Abandon the culture wars that appeal to envy and loathing at the expense of hope and aspiration. Culture wars are toxic to young people.

    4. Forget Gina Reinhart and her Trump obsession. Let the Nats embrace Trumpism (see 1 above for why this doesn’t matter).

    5. Forget Sky News, it has an extremely narrow audience that are almost exclusively rusted on Coalition voters. Instead broaden your media strategy to connect with audiences who will challenge your statements rather than fawn over everything you say.

  20. Is the earthquake at the nuclear facility definitely a natural phenomenon (and a coincidence) or is there some possibility of something more sinister?

    Has the US given Israel bunker busting bombs?

  21. A magnitude 2.3 quake is very small, does not cause damage and would not normally be felt. Small quakes like this happen all the time and would be especially common in a seismically active area like Iran.

    P.S. we had a few 2.0 to 2.7 tremors in SE NSW in the past week: https://earthquakes.ga.gov.au/#

  23. Confessions @ #1518 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 5:32 pm

    The federal Liberal Party is preparing to dump the two octogenarian Victorians appointed to oversee the troubled NSW division, a fortnight after ex-Victorian treasurer Alan Stockdale questioned whether the prevalence of assertive women required protecting men.

    Under a draft plan conveyed by four senior Liberal sources, who all spoke on the condition of anonymity citing party rules barring speaking with the media, the administrative committee’s term would expire on June 30. It would probably be replaced by a seven-person committee chaired by a Liberal luminary.

    Under the plan, the NSW division would be steered by a five to seven-person committee from July 1, with representation from each of the three factions plus an independent chair appointed to oversee the party’s constitutional reform process, according to three sources privy to the proposed changes.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-firm-on-dumping-victorian-elders-after-assertive-women-comments-20250616-p5m7rf.html

    Not sure what the point is other than optics. The Liberals know what they need to do to arrest the decline in their vote because the past election reviews have told them what to do. In addition they should:

    1. Decouple from the Nationals while in opposition, freeing them up to have their own policies, esp on climate change that appeal to the sensible centre.

    2. Introduce mandatory preselection quotas for women to 50% of winnable seats.

    3. Abandon the culture wars that appeal to envy and loathing at the expense of hope and aspiration. Culture wars are toxic to young people.

    4. Forget Gina Reinhart and her Trump obsession. Let the Nats embrace Trumpism (see 1 above for why this doesn’t matter).

    5. Forget Sky News, it has an extremely narrow audience that are almost exclusively rusted on Coalition voters. Instead broaden your media strategy to connect with audiences who will challenge your statements rather than fawn over everything you say.

    The $64,000 question remains though, would the Liberal Party membership what with their brains melted from the Bath Salt Conservatism they watch religiously through Sky After Dark let them do those things?

    Given that from a glance of recent videos on the Sky News Australia channel, 75% of what I see is “Heil Trump!”, it’s doubtful.

  24. The $64,000 question remains though, would the Liberal Party membership what with their brains melted from the Bath Salt Conservatism they watch religiously through Sky After Dark let them do those things?

    No, which is why they haven’t done anything on those fronts to date. Despite there being good evidence that they should, esp on quotas – just look at the ALP.

  25. Confessions @ #1523 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 5:59 pm

    The $64,000 question remains though, would the Liberal Party membership what with their brains melted from the Bath Salt Conservatism they watch religiously through Sky After Dark let them do those things?

    No, which is why they haven’t done anything on those fronts to date. Despite there being good evidence that they should, esp on quotas – just look at the ALP.

    Yeah, true. I saw Federal Liberal Party Vice President Teena McQueen say outright (on a post-election Sky News segment) that if the Liberal Party brought in quotas for women that she’d defect to the National Party.

  28. Well, tonight I’ve had my mind blown. According to the pendulum, 1993 was a closer federal election than 1990.

    In 1990 it would have needed a uniform swing of 1.4% for the Coalition under Andrew Peacock to form a majority. Then in 1993 it would have needed a swing of only 0.6% for the Coalition under John Hewson to form a majority.

    The more you know, I guess. Now comes the tedious part of doing all the other seats, after which I think I’ll take a break from wiki work. I’m mainly doing it at the moment because I have plenty of podcast content to listen to.

  29. Something just occurred to me; It is quite ironic that a group called the Republicans were annoyed by an anti-monarchist protest.

  31. I saw Federal Liberal Party Vice President Teena McQueen say outright (on a post-election Sky News segment) that if the Liberal Party brought in quotas for women that she’d defect to the National Party.

    And if I were a Liberal I’d say let her go.

    Look, it’s possible that this downfall narrative is largely driven by Labor’s landslide, but the Coalition only hold something like 10 metro seats and with each successive election there are fewer and fewer women in the partyroom.

    Something has to change and drastically. Just doing the same old, same old post-election review by the same old, same old party luminaries (most of whom are men) isn’t cutting it.

  34. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 3:52 pm

    The U.S. Air Force has made an unprecedented mass deployment of KC-135 and KC-46 aerial tankers across the Atlantic from bases on the American mainland, fuelling considerable speculation that the aircraft may be intended to participate in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian War. The number of aircraft has continued to rise, and was reported in the late hours of June 15, West Coast time, to have exceeded 30 tankers. Tankers from multiple Western countries have been reported to be participating in supporting Israeli Air Force aerial refuelling efforts to facilitate strikes on Iran, raising the possibility that these newly deployed tankers may be intended to similarly refuel Israeli assets. Another significant possibility is that the aircraft are intended to refuel U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy fighters and bombers should the United States more actively enter the war. The U.S. is already an active participant in hostilities, and has deployed THAAD air defence systems and AEGIS destroyers to support efforts to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles being fired at Israeli targets.’
    ========================
    I saw some footage which purported to be of a THAAD missile intercepting an Iranian ballistic missile. If so, and depending on the height of the interception, this may have been the first example of war in ‘space’.

  35. ”
    newy boysays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 4:53 pm
    From https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-condemns-kremenchuk-attack-warns-of-further-energy-strikes/:

    Following his call with Putin, Trump claimed he would be “open” to the Russian president acting as a mediator in the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Zelensky rejected the idea of Putin — who has waged war against Ukraine for over 10 years and has taken no steps towards a lasting ceasefire — playing the role of peacemaker.

    Putin “is war itself,” Zelensky said, urging the international community not to fall for “Russian manipulation and lies.”

    Wow. Putin, Trump, Netanyahu and Khamenei all sitting round a table, discussing ‘peace’. Is this the sickest joke of all to come out of this past three years? I’d call those four (plus Kim) the world’s current ‘Axis of Evil’.
    ”

    But Xi….. whataboutism.

  36. Ven, Monday, June 16, 2025 at 6:51 pm:

    But Xi….. whataboutism.

    Thought about including Xi in the current ‘Axis of Evil’.

    You know what? In he goes.

  37. Vensays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 11:35 am
    “”That one stings,” off-spinner Nathan Lyon told BBC Test Match Special.
    “We’ve been very good for the last two years but we were outplayed in this game. You play to win trophies. We had that opportunity this week and we got outplayed”.
    _____________________
    Picked the wrong side, that was the biggest problem.

  38. Cognitive dissonance alert:

    Tehran remains opposed to weapons of mass destruction – Iran foreign ministry:

    Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that the Iranian parliament is preparing a bill to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), adding that Tehran remains opposed to the development of weapons of mass destruction, Reuters reports.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/16/israel-iran-conflict-haifa-power-plant-tel-aviv-missile-strike-live-updates-middle-east

    Of course, the country arming the aggressor against the one country on earth which actually relinquished its nuclear arsenal for the cause of nuclear non-proliferation, is itself now officially renouncing nuclear non-proliferation.

  39. Boerwar @ #1533 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 6:50 pm

    I saw some footage which purported to be of a THAAD missile intercepting an Iranian ballistic missile. If so, and depending on the height of the interception, this may have been the first example of war in ‘space’.

    BW I saw that, incredible footage. It happened during the Iranian missile attack in October too:

    https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fu1bc1/iranian_ballistic_missile_intercepted_in_outer/

  40. Newy Boy

    “ Cognitive dissonance alert:

    Tehran remains opposed to weapons of mass destruction – Iran foreign ministry:”
    ——————————————————-
    ROTFL! Iran has spent an awful lot of money on uranium enrichment over several decades for a country that doesn’t want nuclear weapons 🙂

  41. I remember Mark Regev’s response when a reporter asked him why Iran should not have nuclear weapons when Israel did. His response was that Iran had signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty while Israel hadn’t and therefore Israel was doing the UN’s work by bombing Iran because it was breaking numerous General Assembly resolutions. The reporter did not ask him about resolution 242.
    Anyway, I am sure that Regev would be pleased by Iran negating the NPT and thus being able to get some nukes./s

  42. It’d be neat if Canada put on a nice little military march past – with soldiers marching in step – for the G7 crowd.

  43. “Trump vetoed Israeli plot to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader”

    Brilliant idea why did it take so long to surface…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_by_the_United_States
    …..List of US assignations / attempted assassinations too long to count.

    Naturally Trump vetoed the idea.. any shin split draft dodging coward would do the same for fear of being on someone’s list.

    Personally I think it’s a good idea to target heads of government … would trade BiBi’s life for 50’000 slaughtered innocent people any day. Had the 2024 attempt been successful tens of thousands of innocent lives would have been saved.

    If heads of government were in fear of their lives it might restrain their behaviour a bit.

    https://fortune.com/2024/10/19/benjamin-netanyahu-home-drone-assassination-attempt-israel-hezbollah-iran/

  44. If heads of government were in fear of their lives it might restrain their behaviour a bit.

    How quaint that Trump should have interceded for Ayatollah Ali Khameini with the Israelis. Pity he hasn’t bothered condemning Vladimir Putin for all his attempts to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_attempts_on_Volodymyr_Zelenskyy

    Personally, I agree that heads of state are fair game – if they have committed military aggression against a peaceful country, war crimes or crimes against humanity. IMO, Putin absolutely fits this bill.

  47. Australia is looking more and more like it’s insignificant. SANTOS will be sold off making it the last seemingly significant SA based company to go.
    We are like the dry leaves in the windy square.

  49. Diogenessays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 8:00 pm
    Australia is looking more and more like it’s insignificant. SANTOS will be sold off making it the last seemingly significant SA based company to go.
    We are like the dry leaves in the windy square.
    ============================================================

    The fact that Bendigo and Adelaide Bank prefers to have its head office in Bendigo is pretty damning.

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