The first federal poll since the election is what will presumably be the resumption of the regular weekly Roy Morgan series. This accumulates poling conducted over the month since the election, encompassing 5128 respondents from May 5 to June 1. The result is strong for Labor even by the standards of post-election honeymoons, with a two-party preferred reading of 58.5-41.5, presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. This compares with what looks like being an election result of 55.3-44.7, based on the almost complete determination of the AEC. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 37% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 31% (31.8%), Greens 11.5% (12.2%) and One Nation 6% (6.4%). With its large sample, the accompanying release features breakdowns by state and age cohort.
D&M
I know mandatory noise has been discussed but not gone ahead with yet. I certainly got a shock the other day when walking on a country road and was passed by an ev.
I don’t know if DB knows yet but the charger at the Murrumbateman pub is in use (according to my app). Never mind the council has thoughtful placed a mains outlet in the main street for EV use (if MGs are anything like my car, this will charge at about 4 kms per hour). Hopefully the pub charger will be free soon.
King, I’m actually surprised that i thought the PV hor/senate ratio was reversed. But as to your analysis, the people who vote for the green in the hor are actually voting for “someone else” but in the senate they aren’t fans of the party?
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 4:50 pm
Rex
But O’Byrne brought this parliament down by following partisan directives rather than the Denison rules.
A touch hypocritical.
__________________
Winter brought this parliament down by bringing on the no confidence motion while refusing to entertain a minority Govt under his leadership.
Boerwar and Stoogy L,
Thanks!!
If you’re in NSW:
https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/state-opts-to-double-home-battery-discounts-in-merger-with-federal-rebate-scheme/
Replace “fame” with “stunts” and this article explains the my way or highway
recalcitrant greens under blocker Bandt
“Activists like Greta Thunberg care more about fame than facts
When it comes to the moral high road, the likes of Thunberg seek to occupy ALL of it, no matter how muddled the thinking. This is precisely the problem.”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/activists-like-greta-thunberg-care-more-about-fame-than-facts-20250610-p5m674.html
Milo Tully @ #2356 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 5:41 pm
The thing about the “moral high ground” is that it is very often completely deserted. Why not occupy it?
SL : “battery rebates”
The Australian path to renewables deployment has a significant component of removing draw from the grid. Anyone who would have said that this was possible ten years ago would have been laughed at. Ten years ago was two years before the Hornsdale Big Battery in South Australia, the first in the world, and a year before they phased out coal there. Remember the 2016 ‘crisis’ that actually demonstrated the decentralisation of renewables power generation? We now have multiple big batteries and hundreds of community batteries in Victoria alone.
You know what you don’t see anywhere? Greens. Radio silence.
Milo Tully @ #2356 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 5:41 pm
Actually, the author of that article could well be our very own “tactical fatalism” obsessive, getting themselves aroused again …
Disturbing and distasteful, to say the least 🙁
Pi @ #2358 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 5:46 pm
Ummm. Some of us here said it was possible ten years ago. In fact, some of us did it ten years ago. But you are right – we did get ridiculed.
Sydney Stooge Celebration – update
C@t is going to make the booking for our Sydney Bludgers (and others) post election celebration. She’s aiming for a private dining room big enough to accommodate us at 9 Dragons. Therefore we need to know numbers!
Post if you’re coming and I’ll do the round up and let her know.
And a special shout out to Victoria: if you are heading Sydney way 27 June you’d be more than welcome to join. Bring OH and make a weekend of it. Stay at the Sofitel Darling Harbour and you can almost literally door to door hotel to restaurant on the light rail. So simple!
You know, it’s peculiar that the technology for batteries has been around since 1745 with the invention of the Leyden Jar, yet for some reason all that has been held back for 280 years in favour of industrial fossil fuel empires.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leyden_jar
The principal has been there since the very beginning of the studies of electricity, yet for nearly 300 years all the talk was about “Okay, so how do we get our magnates to get the most profit out of this?” and only now in the past decade are we being like “So how do we improve our Leyden Jars?”
We need to be investing in dealing with the consequences of climate change, including the insurance crisis.
We need to get to zero net fifty.
The need for investment in dealing with the consequences will most likely eventually swamp the investment needed for zero net fifty.
Disinformation leads to misinformation leads to malformation of decisions:
https://citynews.com.au/2025/ev-myths-but-australians-go-along-with-them-says-report/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Douglas & Milko
Solar Quotes is the site.
Can’t recommend it highly enough for anyone looking at solar and battery.
Finn Peacock who runs the site is ex CSIRO.
Cheers
King OMalley says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 4:22 pm
******
King, Those figures are similar to what I remember noting from the last election.
The big takeaway for me is that (potential) Green voters actually do like winning. The highest HoR to Senate differential occurs in seats where the Greens have, or at least are seen as having, a real chance of winning (Brisbane seems a bit of an anomaly). The highest Senate to HoR differential occurs in seats where Teals or other Independents are realistic last two candidates.
Without doing a detailed number crunch, I’d estimate that there is a Green voters actually tactical vote of around half the strength of ALP voter tactical voting.
Why is this lower? Three possibilities:
– The proportion of ‘rusted on’ Greens is, because of their smaller overall vote and their positioning as a ‘sectional’ party rather than a party of Government, greater than the proportion of ‘rusted on’ ALP voters;
– There is a reverse tactical vote in the Senate in favour of minor left parties in the Senate vis a vis the Greens.
– Both of the above
Rex Douglas @ #2353 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 5:35 pm
Rockcliff brought is own government down by setting the state on the road to bankruptcy – everything else would not have happened absent this action.
Rockliffe still inside government house, presumably having a tete-a-tete.
(Guardian updates at 18:23)
King OMalley says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 4:22 pm
– – – – – –
King, I’ll only venture an opinion on three of the seats you are charting – Canberra, Fenner and Bean. That includes two big outliers in your charts.
For Canberra and Fenner, Greens’ HoR voters had no credible chance of winning a senate seat, but had an appealing Independent choice in Pocock. Some might have voted this way for “strategic” reasons, but Pocock has been broadly popular in the ACT, and local Green in HoR and Pocock in the Senate is not an unreasonable choice for anyone not feeling constrained by one teams HTV card. Hence their relatively strong showing in the HoR and low vote in the Senate.
For Bean, Green PV was down in part due to the presence of the Independent Jessie Price, who presumably attracted some of their vote (whether a strategic one-off, or a permanent loss to the Greens). Their Senate vote had the same “Pocock” reduction as the other two seats, hence Bean’s difference is much lower.
To me, these are affected by local conditions and should be treated with caution. You may want to consider excluding them as unrepresentative of any broader picture you are trying to build.
As an aside to my last comment, The coverage during the election of Labor’s high levels of ‘soft’ voters was misconceived. It’s the soft ( in other words ‘gettable’) voters that make the difference between 48% and 52%, or in this election 55%. You might lose them but if they’re not on your pile you can’t win.
Polling seems to have resumed in Canada. There doesn’t seem to be much of a honeymoon for Carney, but for the most part they seem to be roughly at the same level as the election.
https://abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-poll-optimism-direction-of-country-canada/
Liberal: 42% (-1.8 since election)
Conservative: 39% (-2.3)
NDP: 8% (+1.7)
BQ: 6% (-0.3)
Green: 3% (+1.7)
PP: 1% (+0.3)
Carney’s approval rating remains positive meanwhile, while Pollievre’s is turning negative.
Furthermore, to remain as leader of the Canadian Conservatives, Pierre Pollievre will have to win the Battle River—Crowfoot federal by-election in August. Probably not too much of a challenge since it was a riding won by the Conservatives 83-12 at the election, but a by-election could have very different results.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Battle_River%E2%80%94Crowfoot_federal_by-election
Kirsdarke, my hypothesis is that energy was, and still is, tied to steel production, and as far as materials science goes, spinning turbines aka big steel things, were easier after the materials science. The technology to create engines was necessary to build big rotating mechanisms. Until that happened it wasn’t efficient enough. Engines had to happen before electrical turbines.
Confessions, I’m coming to the get together.
Adam Morton
The Tasmanian governor, Barbara Baker, has indicated it could be days before she decides on whether the state will have an early election.
The premier, Jeremy Rockliff, has just met with Baker at Government House in Hobart.
The governor’s official secretary, David Hughes, has released a statement:
This evening Her Excellency the Honourable Barbara Baker AC, Governor of Tasmania, received the Premier, the Honourable Jeremy Rockliff MP, at Government House.
Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options.
By the end of the week the Premier will meet with her excellency again.
Further statements will be made in due course.
________________________________________
The Governor is duty bound to explore the possibility of someone else forming government. Whatever she does I am sure she will not be taking advice from anonymous keyboard warriors on Poll Bludger.
Douglas and Milko @ #2345 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 4:50 pm
yes, that is why Geely have done it. Although, not sure if it is just needed to obtain the top rating safety or essential for all new EVs.
SolarQuotes is what SA friends have used for obtaining quotes for supply and install for panels and batteries. I used word of mouth (for a local company) and a check quote for my panels and am using a recommendation for battery.
I have met the guy who founded SolarQuotes when he was doing talks at fairs etc. I use his website for obtaining good information and choosing brands and configurations etc.
Pi @ #2372 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 6:46 pm
That’s a fair point. But surely we’ve peaked at steel production technology at some point in the late 20th century?
Oh cripes I hope for their sake that Tasmanians don’t get a Premier Eric Abetz. While a government under him would probably be short-lived, he’s one of the old-school nasty right wing culcha warriors that fought hard to keep homosexuality illegal in the 90’s.
Dog’s Brunch @ #2341 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 4:34 pm
About to test drive the MGS5 which apparently has a single touch – turn off the extra buzz stuff. We will see. It is a toss up between the Geely, MGS5…. and fixing the clutch on the old Honda Jazz (that the L Plater burned).
King OMalley @ #2370 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 6:48 pm
Excellent!
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 6:56 pm
“Oh cripes I hope for their sake that Tasmanians don’t get a Premier Eric Abetz”
+1.
How that dinosaur is still in politics amazes me
Fortunately, I think the Libs are sticking with Rockliff
Confessions says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 5:57 pm
Sydney Stooge Celebration – update
C@t is going to make the booking for our Sydney Bludgers (and others) post election celebration. She’s aiming for a private dining room big enough to accommodate us at 9 Dragons. Therefore we need to know numbers!
Post if you’re coming and I’ll do the round up and let her know.
And a special shout out to Victoria: if you are heading Sydney way 27 June you’d be more than welcome to join. Bring OH and make a weekend of it. Stay at the Sofitel Darling Harbour and you can almost literally door to door hotel to restaurant on the light rail. So simple!
_____
I’m so ‘in’ for this: a succulent Chinese meal!
Also, having now gone under the knife today to repair an inguinal hernia, next on my ‘to do’ list will be to see what arrangements can be made for a visit to the McLeay’ s distillery for interested parties. I think double stacking Friday may be a bit much, but now that Mark McLeay is back in town I’ll check out options. Are there any preferred times and dates that week (or next). As mentioned before, I was thinking of asking mark to give us the opportunity to distill some gin and combine the day with a lunch at the craft brewery next door.
Now it’s no longer just steel production, more materials science, but there’s no getting away from how big it is. Curtailing that looks hard. It will likely be the last thing to curtail because of how valuable a process it is. There is likely going to need to be some process to extract carbon from the atmosphere efficiently. Thanks for sorting that out kids.
I’m an optimist. We always keep underestimating these effects. Life expectancy mostly up. Inflation down. Interest rates down. Wage growth up. This renewables thing isn’t such a bad idea. Technology is increasing our productivity exponentially.
But we still need steel. For now at least.
“ABC set to axe long-running current affairs show Q+A
The ABC is set to axe the long-running program after more than 500 episodes and 17 seasons.”
(SMH)
Got it.
Where is the distillery?
And another axed program – Ch10 The Project – gets a hearty send off from Friendly Jordies..
https://youtu.be/QO1FESBJZHU?si=-rs7YNrnJzazXCan
citizen @ #2380 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 7:13 pm
About time. I cannot believe people still watch that show.
It’s like the Real Housewives for elites.
Team Katich
Love my MG4 and as yet it has still to have its first service (at 40000 km), I still at 25k. Tell OC that was me on the Murrumbateman Charger…loved my schooner in front of the fire.
Haven’t seen the MG5 yet, I thought it was more of a station wagon /estate format.
They just need to bring back Stan Grant. /sarc
I wonder why Trump didn’t consider Texas, for instance, for his attack on “illegal migrants”? This could end up far more worse than the ’70s Kent State shootings.
https://www.kent.edu/may-4-historical-accuracy
Fess
Just saw the invite for the bludger catch up. Much appreciated.
I wish I could. It would be a great opportunity to meet bludgers face to face. Unfortunately, I have commitments.
I won’t go into detail, save to say, its a laundry list!
I’m also actually quite unwell at the moment with RSV. It has knocked the stuffing out of me. Sigh……
https://www.theage.com.au/national/tasmanians-brace-for-snap-election-as-premier-visits-governor-20250610-p5m65s.html
It may or may not be on.
Have a look at the artist’s impression the Stadium! What a rip snorter. I’m not a taswegian and I have no Devil in the fight – but by Dog, I’d love to see the mighty Hawks play there. (That is a personal view from an AFL Fan’s point of view…..)
If an election is called and one occurs the MPs elected must form a government of one kind or another. 4 elections in 7 years is ridiculous. Heavens to Betsy, they could have almost paid for the stadium with all that expense.
Trump is going to manufacture his insurrection!
B. S. Fairman @ #2387 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 7:23 pm
Honestly even if they did so I think Mr. FIGJAM would turn his nose up at it.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 5:57 pm
Sydney Stooge Celebration – update
C@t is going to make the booking for our Sydney Bludgers (and others) post election celebration. She’s aiming for a private dining room big enough to accommodate us at 9 Dragons. Therefore we need to know numbers!
Post if you’re coming and I’ll do the round up and let her know.
And a special shout out to Victoria: if you are heading Sydney way 27 June you’d be more than welcome to join. Bring OH and make a weekend of it. Stay at the Sofitel Darling Harbour and you can almost literally door to door hotel to restaurant on the light rail. So simple!
______________________________________________
Hi Fess
I plan to come. Look forward to it.
Also I would like to send absent apologies for the Sydney meetup. On a better year, maybe I could hop on the XPT (or its replacement) and go out for a day or two over there. I refuse to go by plane though.
Definitely hoping for a Solar Eclipse trip in July 2028 though.
DB
Have you seen the other charging infrastructure in Murrumbateman? 4 doors down from the pub there is a wine bar (sorry, mead bar -do these still exist?) with a mains outlet and a sign indicating it’s for EVs. A very long stay in Murrumbateman, indeed.
(I spent a night in a motel in Bellingen last year which advertised charging facilities- this was, in fact, running the cable and an extension cord out of the room window)
Victoria @ #2386 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 7:26 pm
No problems, another time.
Get well soon. I’ve had staff with RSV and they’ve had up to 2 weeks off work. Totally knocked out! Take care.
TPOF:
Got it, look forward to seeing you.
OC, no I haven’t , it could be the Abode Hotel which would allow an extended overnight stay. Fortunately the Evie at the pub is very reliable and quite fast. Always a good safety stop if I don’t calculate my run home to Yass as well as I might.
Q+A lost its way years ago. Tony Jones was great. Patricia Karvelas is getting it together again. But the intervening years were diabolically bad. And sadly, the two worst hosts – McDonald and Grant – had to decide to leave themselves. The ABC couldn’t see a problem. Very sad.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 7:15 pm
I’m so ‘in’ for this: a succulent Chinese meal!
Got it.
Where is the distillery
___
Blackwater Distillery Balmain (just up the road from the old white bay power station site. Direct buses to and from the CBD (I think)