Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.
Wednesday
The Bradfield recount has been completed with Nicolette Boele 26 votes ahead. Importantly, the AEC reports that its investigation into cases of multiple marks against names on the electoral roll found that only two voters were “likely to have had a second vote admitted to the count”. Should the Liberals (or, in theory, any voter in Bradfield) wish to pursue a legal challenge, they will have to persuade the court that at least 23 errors were made, either to their disadvantage with respect to adjudication of ballot papers or with voters having been wrongly allowed or refused votes.
Tuesday
Nicolette Boele ended the day 27 votes ahead in Bradfield, one down on yesterday. A good result for Boele from the St Ives Chase booth at the start of the day, with six votes knocked out for Gisele Kapterian, was cancelled out later on when Kapterian gained six votes from the Warrawee booth, the first revision in her favour affecting more than one or two votes. That just leaves a handful of votes to be accounted for, which will assuredly be wrapped up at some point today. The largest booth outstanding is Wahroonga with 693 votes – I am told that this is in fact mostly done, with no indication that the result will be substantially revised. There are also the very small Ultimo and Wynyard booths, with 51 votes between them, along with around 185 postals, 160 provisionals and 150 absents.
In short, it seems likely that the present margin will undergo only minor change, in which case the AEC will shortly declare Boele the winner. The question will then arise as to whether the matter ends up in court. The AEC itself can refer the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns (meaning the High Court or the Federal Court if it chooses to delegate the matter), but a media briefing conducted yesterday suggested this was unlikely. The most obvious basis for it to do so involves the incidence of multiple voting being greater than the final margin. Typically the number per electorate has been around 15, but an AEC spokesperson suggested it would be lower than that due to the increased use of electronic certified voter lists, through which it can be determined in real time if a prospective voter has been marked off already.
If so, it will be a matter for the defeated candidate (or perhaps more to the point, their party) to determine if a challenge is worth pursuing. Doing so would almost certainly involve disputing formality rulings, as was done without success by Labor candidate Rob Mitchell in the seat of McEwen in 2007 (who went on to win the seat in 2010 and has held it ever since). After winning the initial count by six votes and losing the recount by 12 (seemingly the only time a recount has reversed the original result at a federal election), Mitchell argued there were 40 ballot papers ranking him higher than Liberal rival Fran Bailey that had been wrongly rejected, along with one where the opposite happened. After reaching its own conclusions concerning 643 ballot papers that had been reserved for the adjudication of the returning officer, the court revised Mitchell’s losing margin up to 27, and duly rejected his appeal.
The precedent of a court determining a declared result to have been out by 15 suggests the Liberal Party would be strongly tempted to pursue the matter further – although its Queensland equivalent chose not to do so after falling 37 votes short in Herbert in 2016. While the chances of a court declaring Kapterian the winner outright would seem rather slim, it might conclude the proper margin to be below than the number of observed irregularities, causing it to void the result and have the election held afresh.
Monday
Nicolette Boele had her best day yet in the Bradfield recount, the 12 vote lead she opened yesterday widening to 28. Rechecking of nine booths, four of them in the Liberal stronghold of St Ives (reflecting the fact that the recount has proceeded more-or-less alphabetically), knocked 14 votes from Gisele Kapterian’s tally and four from Boele’s, while batches of absents and postals cut five from Kapterian and added one for Boele. This leaves the recount nearly 80% done – the 12 booths remaining to be rechecked (only one of which is a pre-poll centre, and that a rather small one) account for 12,056 votes, on top of which I am told that about 3700 postals, 1500 declaration pre-polls and 500 absents are still outstanding.
Saturday
Good news and bad news for tealdom today, the former being a breakthrough for Nicolette Boele in the knife-edge Bradfield recount. After slowly slipping in counting through most of the day, her one-vote deficit at the start drifting out to seven, Boele’s situation was transformed by the Turramurra pre-poll centre, which knocked out 16 of Gisele Kapterian’s votes and none of her own, pushing her to a 12-vote lead. In total, the recount has cut 82 votes from Kapterian’s tally after preferences and 62 from Boele’s. Out of the grand total of 118,851 votes, still to be recounted are 20 out of 52 election day booths, accounting for 20,322 votes, and two out of 13 pre-poll booths, accounting for 975. It’s a lot harder to say where we are with non-ordinary vote types, except that all but the fairly insignificant provisionals category have been revised, postals apparently on six occasions (though I remain unclear if this encompasses the early and especially strong batches for Kapterian).
Proceedings in Goldstein are finally at an end after the partial recount ended with Tim Wilson 175 ahead, in from 270 at the start of the process, prompting Zoe Daniel to concede defeat. It turns out the 50-vote error alluded to yesterday related to a batch being double-counted (which wasn’t the only time such a thing was found to have happened in Goldstein), rather than the maximal scenario of votes for Daniel having been attributed to Wilson.
Friday
The resolution of the last Senate result today in New South Wales turned up the first genuine surprise, with One Nation’s Warwick Stacey winning a seat that I (and to my knowledge everyone else) had reckoned a sure thing for Labor’s third candidate, Emilija Beljic. After Labor (Tony Sheldon and Tim Ayres) and the Coalition (Andrew Bragg and Jessica Collins) elected their top two candidates with full quotas, the remainder of the pack was whittled away until Mehreen Faruqi of the Greens crossed the threshold to win the fifth seat leaving Stacey and Beljic competing for the sixth. At that point, Stacey led Beljic by 0.886 quotas to 0.823, which preferences from Faruqi’s 0.069 surplus were insufficient to close, Stacey winning at the last by 0.891 quotas to 0.867.
As this simplification of the distribution illustrates, Stacey passed Beljic with the exclusion of Legalise Cannabis one step before the election of the Greens (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments notes it was actually two steps, the previous transfer from Family First’s exclusion having put him ahead), a transfer that included 0.2446 quotas worth of first preferences for Legalise Cannabis and 0.1510 in preferences picked up along the way. My model based on preference flows in 2022 had Labor, One Nation and the Greens gaining very similar shares of preferences with the exclusion of Legalise Cannabis: instead, One Nation gained 0.146 quotas, the Greens 0.123 and Labor only 0.066, the 0.0797 gap between the One Nation and Labor shares pushing One Nation to their 0.024 quota winning margin. However, that is only part of the story of how my model’s projection of a 0.112 quota winning margin for Labor proved out by 0.136 quotas: up to the point of Legalise Cannabis’s exclusion, Labor under-performed the model by 0.046 quotas and One Nation over-performed it by about the same amount. Further insights are available to be gleaned from the full ballot paper data that has already been published by the AEC, though this will have to wait for now.
In the Bradfield recount, Nicolette Boele hit the lead today – but not for long, her one-vote advantage being reversed in the last updates for the day. Debate rages as to whether there is any underlying pattern within changes that have collectively reduced her deficit so far from eight votes to one, with what I would guess to be about 40% of the recount remaining to be done, continuing into today. Updates that looked promising for Boele based on the theory that large numbers of first preferences for Gisele Kapterian meant opportunities for them to be knocked out as informal have in some cases failed to deliver, notably today’s revision for the St Ives pre-poll centre, which reduced both candidates’ totals by one. Thirty-seven of 66 ordinary booths have been recounted, plus I assume all of the absent votes and an unknowable but obviously significant share of the 14,666 postals, but none of the 3405 declaration pre-polls.
The theory of high primary vote disadvantage in recounts has looked good in other contexts, including the Bradfield preference distribution where it played to Boele’s disadvantage by harming her main sources of preferences – and also in the partial recount in Goldstein, which seems to be almost finsihed. Tim Wilson has lost a net 63 votes since the start of the recount to Zoe Daniel’s 36, reducing his lead to 233. The AEC advises we can expect a correction tomorrow involving, among other things, a “change of 50” in favour of Daniel – which could mean a reduction in her deficit to around 183, or a transfer from Wilson to Daniel that would get it all the way to 133. Neither would get her as far as the 100 vote threshold she would need for the AEC to determine if it will keep the ball in play by proceeding to a full recount, though the latter might just about get her within striking range if the tide kept flowing in her favour.
Goldstein final 2pp seems to be in, with Labor at 46.03% (-0.25% swing). This is slightly outside the rms error of my initial prediction, but within the rms error of the adjusted figure that I commented on Antony Green’s blog (48.0% with 2.1% rms error). It also was slightly below the 2pp Senate vote for Labor, even before adding exhausted preferences (46.5%), making it the third teal seat to do this, out of 11 total.
Ben Raue on TR says “The latest word from the AEC is that the AEO is currently meeting with the Governor to return the writs for the NSW Senate count, and then will review the final ballot papers. So they are close to the finish line and it will be in this afternoon but it is not final yet.”
Matt31says:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 12:08 pm
How do you split a line in Tasmania?
Yell division required.
________________________
Boags or Cascade?
In the SMH
“Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has seized the once blue-ribbon seat of Bradfield after a recount of the north shore seat, beating Liberal hopeful Gisele Kapterian by just 27 votes in one of the tightest elections in history.
While the Australia Electoral Commission has not yet publicly confirmed the result, several Liberal sources closely involved in the Bradfield campaign confirmed that Boele was victorious.
Boele won the seat on her second attempt, after almost unseating former Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher in 2022. She continued campaigning fulltime for three years, styling herself as the shadow MP for Bradfield.
She will join fellow NSW teals Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Sophie Scamps (Mackellar) and Zali Steggall (Warringah) on the crossbench.
The loss of Bradfield will be a huge blow to the Liberals and the party is considering petitioning the Court of Disputed Returns in a bid to have the election declared void.
So confident were the Liberals that they would hold Bradfield, Kapterian travelled to Canberra to vote in the party’s leadership ballot last month, which saw Sussan Ley become the first federal female Liberal leader.
Ley then included Kapterian in her shadow frontbench, despite the recount not being completed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/teal-candidate-nicolette-boele-wins-final-bradfield-recount-court-challenge-looms-20250604-p5m4v3.html
Junking the very foundations of the federation compact is not “easy”.
I have a suggestion for the NSWers who think the situation with state under/over representation in the Senate needs to be rectified.
Break your state into two (e.g. Sydney Basin / Rest of NSW) and then petition for the 2 new states to get 12 senators each.
On Federation reform – Peter Beatties’ 2016 Book
“The following is an extract from former Queensland premier Peter Beattie’s book, Where To From Here, Australia?
Australia is over-governed and one tier of government must go. That level is the states. It will not happen in my lifetime but it will happen. The cost of duplication, red tape and waste between the states and the Commonwealth makes this inevitable. While Australia becoming a republic is an important maturing of our nationhood, reforming the federation including the abolition of the states is more important.
In a country of almost 24 million people, you don’t need three levels of government.
The abolition by my government of small, economically unviable councils in Queensland and the creation of substantive councils in their place has already paved the way. Of course the hundreds of sacked local politicians will never forgive me until the day I die. However, the sensible council boundaries remain.
Overall, the Australian federation needs serious reform. Too often in Australian politics the debate centres on what leaders and governments will not do, rather than what they will do. Politics has become a battle to the bottom where personality attacks are more important than long-term policies.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-beattie-book-extract-reform-of-the-federation-20160219-gmyby7.html
The earth will be invaded by Xyclons from the planet Zorg. It will not happen in my lifetime but it will happen.
La Trobe is not really a rural seat these days in any meaningful sense (neither is McEwen); more than two-thirds of its voters come from the outer southeast of Melbourne around and west of Pakenham.
It also can’t be over-emphasised enough how much Bendigo was a special case – the Nationals there ran as quasi-independents in a way that was possible only in a Labor-held seat in which they were not previously established as the main Coalition challenger. Leaving aside Tasmania where the Nationals presence is nearly non-existent, there are only a handful of other regional seats that could fit that profile (Ballarat, maybe Gilmore and Eden-Monaro).
If the Nationals couldn’t win Bullwinkel this time it’s hard to see them doing it in future, especially as it will probably progressively shed its more rural parts in future redistributions as Pearce previously did (indeed the current Bullwinkel is essentially 1990s Pearce).
I have an account and it is active! 🙂 – thanks WB for fixing it.
There were no nett changes in Ultimo and Wahroonga, through in Wahroonga both Teal and Blue to gain one extra.
@HB: Sydney is so overwhelmingly predominant in the population of NSW that any break inevitably either gives significant overrepresentation to the rurals or artificially fractures the urban area. Neither is ideal, though as someone who thinks malapportionment is an almost unique evil in politics I’d allow the fracturing if it diminished malapportionment. I’ve argued for a similar state-splitting of the US state of California previously.
@Upnorth: Wrong, wrong, wrong. The government level to eliminate is local government, which invariably and incurably represents local gentry and elites. There is basically no such thing as a local government that is not captured; running them democratically is impossible because the elections are too low-salience to voters to warrant the level of popular focus necessary to avoid capture.
On Goldstein: The 2PP swing, or lack thereof, of that seat is further evidence for my view that it’s eat-my-hat unlikely that Labor wins the 2PP in Bradfield.
William Bowesays:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 12:44 pm
The earth will be invaded by Xyclons from the planet Zorg. It will not happen in my lifetime but it will happen.
中华人民共和国
I wonder how the Xyclons will vote?
Welcome back Nathan – was worried about you.
The earth will be invaded by Xyclons from the planet Zorg. It will not happen in my lifetime but it will happen.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I understand Clive Palmer has registered ‘Xyclons from Zorg’ as his next political party.
William Bowe says:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 12:34 pm
“Surely it’s time to address this. Easiest (and constitutionally most valid way) is to increase the size of the House, and the size of the Senate in proportion – BUT allocate all the new Senators to the bigger States.
Junking the very foundations of the federation compact is not “easy”.”
That strategy might not be at all likely regarding the Senate but may lead to Tassie having a lower proportion of seats in the HoR (where they are overrepresented with a constitutional minimum of 5)
What might get support is extra Senators for the ACT, as it’s population approaches that of Tassie.
Include the ACT in the new “Rest of NSW” state. Two birds killed with the one stone.
(Whether to make Canberra the capital of this new state would be a bit of a quandary)
@BT – you’re pretty much on the ball with Bullwinkle. There’s been a constant stream of new seats created with a large rural hinterland in WA that have eventually become Perth based seats. Moore, then Pearce, then Hasluck. Bullwinkle will be next – already the vast majority of its voters are in the metro area, and without the rural components, it wouldn’t have even been close.
(Canning has oddly done the opposite and moved out of the city, but that’s just sealed the fate of other seats as Perth grows much faster than the rest of the state).
Anyone suggesting the abolition of the states or changing the equal apportionment of Senators to each state might as well face reality: It Will Not Happen.
It would require drastic Constitutional changes, and as a result, you can’t make the changes without the approval of the affected states – and you can guarantee that all four of WA, SA, Qld and Tassie would vote overwhelmingly to reject a concentration of power in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra (I believe even *one* state rejecting it would defeat it).
I actually doubt it would get up even in NSW/Vic.
@Upnorth – Nahh, I’m fine… just could not post this morning (Syd time) as WB was probably asleep (WA Time) to do his moderator stuff.
An easier solution to the malapportioned Senate – annex NZ and declare it to be part of Tasmania. That’ll also teach those Kiwi splitters a lesson.
Nathansays:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 1:38 pm
@Upnorth – Nahh, I’m fine… just could not post this morning (Syd time) as WB was probably asleep (WA Time) to do his moderator stuff.
中华人民共和国
Mate good on ya. I’ll have my Akubra Hat (no Red Rose sorry) on on the 26th. Shouldn’t be too many of those in the lobby at the Swissotel so you can recognise me – we can have a drink and then choose what tucker to have then.
I gotta head up to Mongolia for a few weeks tomorrow and might be rare on here. Looking forward to catching up – hope DS can make it.
”
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 12:33 pm
In the SMH
“Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has seized the once blue-ribbon seat of Bradfield after a recount of the north shore seat, beating Liberal hopeful Gisele Kapterian by just 27 votes in one of the tightest elections in history.
While the Australia Electoral Commission has not yet publicly confirmed the result, several Liberal sources closely involved in the Bradfield campaign confirmed that Boele was victorious.
Boele won the seat on her second attempt, after almost unseating former Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher in 2022. She continued campaigning fulltime for three years, styling herself as the shadow MP for Bradfield.
She will join fellow NSW teals Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Sophie Scamps (Mackellar) and Zali Steggall (Warringah) on the crossbench.
The loss of Bradfield will be a huge blow to the Liberals and the party is considering petitioning the Court of Disputed Returns in a bid to have the election declared void.
So confident were the Liberals that they would hold Bradfield, Kapterian travelled to Canberra to vote in the party’s leadership ballot last month, which saw Sussan Ley become the first federal female Liberal leader.
”
Upnorth or anyone else
Ok, so Gisele K went to Canberra and voted for Sussan Ley.
But so did retiring Holly Hughes and Linda Reynolds voted for Sussan Ley.
Now, does that mean old Liberal Senators and new HORs voted in leadership ballot?
Is that allowed?. I am seriously confused.
Vensays:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 1:58 pm
”
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 12:33 pm
In the SMH
“Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has seized the once blue-ribbon seat of Bradfield after a recount of the north shore seat, beating Liberal hopeful Gisele Kapterian by just 27 votes in one of the tightest elections in history.
While the Australia Electoral Commission has not yet publicly confirmed the result, several Liberal sources closely involved in the Bradfield campaign confirmed that Boele was victorious.
Boele won the seat on her second attempt, after almost unseating former Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher in 2022. She continued campaigning fulltime for three years, styling herself as the shadow MP for Bradfield.
She will join fellow NSW teals Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Sophie Scamps (Mackellar) and Zali Steggall (Warringah) on the crossbench.
The loss of Bradfield will be a huge blow to the Liberals and the party is considering petitioning the Court of Disputed Returns in a bid to have the election declared void.
So confident were the Liberals that they would hold Bradfield, Kapterian travelled to Canberra to vote in the party’s leadership ballot last month, which saw Sussan Ley become the first federal female Liberal leader.
”
Upnorth or anyone else
Ok, so Gisele K went to Canberra and voted for Sussan Ley.
But so did retiring Holly Hughes and Linda Reynolds voted for Sussan Ley.
Now, does that mean old Liberal Senators and new HORs voted in leadership ballot?
Is that allowed?. I am seriously confused.
中华人民共和国
Liberals make their own rules mate. Up to them to decide on this. Well done Angus might call on spill when his numbers improve
@Ven
Yeah, it seems crazy that they let anyone who may become an MP a vote. The same thing happened after the 2022 Vic State election when the Liberal candidates for Bass and Pakenham were both given a vote in the ballot despite eventually losing their contests.
We will see Paul Thomas – and soon hopefully. The AEC must have staff sitting around at the counting centre this afternoon, so they should be able to pump out the 2PP count.
The election was quite different in NSW and VIC so I don’t think Goldstein in a good comparator. What might be? Het, what about Warringah and Bennelong!
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 1:45 pm
Nathansays: Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 1:38 pm
@Upnorth – Mate good on ya. I’ll have my Akubra Hat (no Red Rose sorry) on on the 26th. Shouldn’t be too many of those in the lobby at the Swissotel so you can recognise me – we can have a drink and then choose what tucker to have then.
~~~~~~~~~~
I’ll wear mine as well. The headband had gone (probs 35-40 years old by now) but my kids got it relined (?) for my birthday last year. Not quite Country Party era but close. Not sure what DS is up to either.
…also Bradfield must still be up in the air! Sports Bet has not taken my Pineapple yet.
G’day all!
My guess is the Liberals will take this to the Court of Disputed Returns, if for no other reason than the now leader Sussan Lea named Kapterian in her shadow cabinet, there’s a “saving face” aspect to this perhaps.
Can Boele still be sworn in as an MP if the court process is ongoing?
If the result holds, the Liberals now hold in Metropolitan Sydney only 4 seats – Berowra(my area), Mitchell, Cook and Lindsay. They lost on May 3 Hughes and Banks and now it would seem Bradfield too.
Nathan – ah mate, you’re safe from having to do the nudie run across Roseville.
I should be thankful for small mercies! Or more correctly, the Rosevillians will be.
I wonder what is up with Wynyard (maybe the want to drop that with the last of the postals etc)?
Democracy Sausage @ #776 Wednesday, June 4th, 2025 – 2:23 pm
I think that she can. From here on the onus is on the Liberals to convince the Court that Boele is not in fact duly elected MP for Bradfield.
Until they succeed, Boele will be the elected MP when the writs are returned.
I think a similar thing happened in McEwen in 2007, Fran Bailey was sworn in as MP and continued to serve while the Court was deciding the case, which took a few months.
Looks like that’s a wrap for Bradfield. Very little – if any – vote to come in. Enjoy it while it lasts Boele. I suspect you’ll follow the primrose path of Zoe Daniel come 3 years.
If aweirdnerd is correct and Labor wins the TPP in Bradfield, I wonder if they would be keen to take a tilt with the Court and a subsequent election?
I wonder what the AEC does with the 16 million or so paper ballots that have been cast. They should create one big pile outside of Parliament House and set it alight.
Costs of an unsuccessful petition to the Court of Disputed Returns would run to a couple of hundred $k. That’s before you get to the thorny issue of the grounds for the challenge, evidence/proof etc. You need more than just “it was quite close”. I am not sure what the cost of a fresh election is, but it’s not cheap.
Then there are the added questions of whether the NSW Libs have the appetite for the cost, and the risk of further humiliation.
If Kapterian is as good as her boosters claim, they can find a spot for her somewhere else in due course. A nice NSW Leg Co spot perhaps?
Kirsdarke – thanks for the explanation above.
I do vaguely remember the McEwen situation in 2007, as swept up as I was at the time over K Rudd’s victory, which pales in comparison to the Albanese landslide on May 3.
HN – time will tell if Boele can be an effective MP. When you’ve won by 27 votes, you clearly have to work your guts out over the next 3 years in the seat, attend every community event, take up every local cause, be as visible as possible etc.
Nathan – the true horror would be me streaking through the seat of Berowra. Nobody, and I repeat nobody, needs to see that abomination, ever.
And I know this is unrelated to this thread, but what a mess down in Tassie!
HN – Here’s an article from 2019: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-21/where-your-ballot-papers-go-after-the-federal-election/11129160
“The House of Representatives ballots are kept for six to 12 months, while the Senate ballot papers must be kept for seven years.”
“The AEC said they were packed into warehouses around the country.”
“…when the ballot papers no longer need to be stored, they are pulped and recycled in Australia.”
Yeah, looking back, the 42nd parliament first sat on 12 February 2008 (in which Bailey sat as the continuing Member for McEwen), and the Mitchell v. Bailey decision wasn’t decided until 2 July 2008, so it’d take roughly half a year to sort it out if the Liberals challenge it in a similar way.
Outsider – the NSW Liberal division is in a terrible state financially, could they even afford the court costs? I daresay there are a bunch of Liberal lawyers out there who’d do it pro bono. Boele certainly could rely on Simon Holmes A Court to pay for her lawyer fees, if they are required.
And yes, if Kapterian is as wonderful and talented as they claim she is, they’ll find her a state seat in 2027 to run in or they’ll put her into the Senate or the Legislative Council in the NSW parliament.
Sussan’s now gotta find a new Assistant Shadow Minister for Communications.
DS
Can Boele still be sworn in as an MP if the court process is ongoing?
==============================================================
I suspect the AEC needs to declare a result before it can be disputed?
Nearly winning a federal seat to being put in a state seat where the NSW Liberals will be in opposition for the next couple of years seems a heavy downgrade IMO. Kapterian will either be put in NSW Senate vacancy or run for Bradfield again in 2028.
Yes Boele will be declared today and she can sit in Parliament pending any Court case. I don’t think the libs will take it to Court anyways as they have zero grounds to do so. Caveat that maybe they privately have grounds but I would imagine some reporting on it by now if that was the case.
Wynyard drops – +1 for Blue – Teal leads 26 no idea on the dec’s
Edit: I’m wrong. No change in Wynyard, Lib picked up 1 Absent.
Kapterian gained a vote on absents, now behind by 26.
This is now the 4th consecutive federal election in which the Coalition’s primary vote has decreased.
Coalition’s primary:
2013: 45.55%
2016: 42.04%
2019: 41.44%
2022: 35.69%
2025: 31.82%
From 45.5% in 2013 to 31.8% in 2025 is quite shocking. Nearly a 15% drop in just 12 years. Demographics are changing rapidly in Australia to the Coalition’s total detriment.
Wynyard got updated, but no change there.
AEC confirms in press release that Boele wins by 26 votes. That’s the final margin.
https://x.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1930129695271727562
The 185 postals and 161 provisionals alluded to in my post are either still to come, or have yielded no change.
Well, there you go.
Two cases of multiple voting.
That rules out one of the potential grounds for a CDR challenge.