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Wednesday
The Bradfield recount has been completed with Nicolette Boele 26 votes ahead. Importantly, the AEC reports that its investigation into cases of multiple marks against names on the electoral roll found that only two voters were “likely to have had a second vote admitted to the count”. Should the Liberals (or, in theory, any voter in Bradfield) wish to pursue a legal challenge, they will have to persuade the court that at least 23 errors were made, either to their disadvantage with respect to adjudication of ballot papers or with voters having been wrongly allowed or refused votes.
Tuesday
Nicolette Boele ended the day 27 votes ahead in Bradfield, one down on yesterday. A good result for Boele from the St Ives Chase booth at the start of the day, with six votes knocked out for Gisele Kapterian, was cancelled out later on when Kapterian gained six votes from the Warrawee booth, the first revision in her favour affecting more than one or two votes. That just leaves a handful of votes to be accounted for, which will assuredly be wrapped up at some point today. The largest booth outstanding is Wahroonga with 693 votes – I am told that this is in fact mostly done, with no indication that the result will be substantially revised. There are also the very small Ultimo and Wynyard booths, with 51 votes between them, along with around 185 postals, 160 provisionals and 150 absents.
In short, it seems likely that the present margin will undergo only minor change, in which case the AEC will shortly declare Boele the winner. The question will then arise as to whether the matter ends up in court. The AEC itself can refer the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns (meaning the High Court or the Federal Court if it chooses to delegate the matter), but a media briefing conducted yesterday suggested this was unlikely. The most obvious basis for it to do so involves the incidence of multiple voting being greater than the final margin. Typically the number per electorate has been around 15, but an AEC spokesperson suggested it would be lower than that due to the increased use of electronic certified voter lists, through which it can be determined in real time if a prospective voter has been marked off already.
If so, it will be a matter for the defeated candidate (or perhaps more to the point, their party) to determine if a challenge is worth pursuing. Doing so would almost certainly involve disputing formality rulings, as was done without success by Labor candidate Rob Mitchell in the seat of McEwen in 2007 (who went on to win the seat in 2010 and has held it ever since). After winning the initial count by six votes and losing the recount by 12 (seemingly the only time a recount has reversed the original result at a federal election), Mitchell argued there were 40 ballot papers ranking him higher than Liberal rival Fran Bailey that had been wrongly rejected, along with one where the opposite happened. After reaching its own conclusions concerning 643 ballot papers that had been reserved for the adjudication of the returning officer, the court revised Mitchell’s losing margin up to 27, and duly rejected his appeal.
The precedent of a court determining a declared result to have been out by 15 suggests the Liberal Party would be strongly tempted to pursue the matter further – although its Queensland equivalent chose not to do so after falling 37 votes short in Herbert in 2016. While the chances of a court declaring Kapterian the winner outright would seem rather slim, it might conclude the proper margin to be below than the number of observed irregularities, causing it to void the result and have the election held afresh.
Monday
Nicolette Boele had her best day yet in the Bradfield recount, the 12 vote lead she opened yesterday widening to 28. Rechecking of nine booths, four of them in the Liberal stronghold of St Ives (reflecting the fact that the recount has proceeded more-or-less alphabetically), knocked 14 votes from Gisele Kapterian’s tally and four from Boele’s, while batches of absents and postals cut five from Kapterian and added one for Boele. This leaves the recount nearly 80% done – the 12 booths remaining to be rechecked (only one of which is a pre-poll centre, and that a rather small one) account for 12,056 votes, on top of which I am told that about 3700 postals, 1500 declaration pre-polls and 500 absents are still outstanding.
Saturday
Good news and bad news for tealdom today, the former being a breakthrough for Nicolette Boele in the knife-edge Bradfield recount. After slowly slipping in counting through most of the day, her one-vote deficit at the start drifting out to seven, Boele’s situation was transformed by the Turramurra pre-poll centre, which knocked out 16 of Gisele Kapterian’s votes and none of her own, pushing her to a 12-vote lead. In total, the recount has cut 82 votes from Kapterian’s tally after preferences and 62 from Boele’s. Out of the grand total of 118,851 votes, still to be recounted are 20 out of 52 election day booths, accounting for 20,322 votes, and two out of 13 pre-poll booths, accounting for 975. It’s a lot harder to say where we are with non-ordinary vote types, except that all but the fairly insignificant provisionals category have been revised, postals apparently on six occasions (though I remain unclear if this encompasses the early and especially strong batches for Kapterian).
Proceedings in Goldstein are finally at an end after the partial recount ended with Tim Wilson 175 ahead, in from 270 at the start of the process, prompting Zoe Daniel to concede defeat. It turns out the 50-vote error alluded to yesterday related to a batch being double-counted (which wasn’t the only time such a thing was found to have happened in Goldstein), rather than the maximal scenario of votes for Daniel having been attributed to Wilson.
Friday
The resolution of the last Senate result today in New South Wales turned up the first genuine surprise, with One Nation’s Warwick Stacey winning a seat that I (and to my knowledge everyone else) had reckoned a sure thing for Labor’s third candidate, Emilija Beljic. After Labor (Tony Sheldon and Tim Ayres) and the Coalition (Andrew Bragg and Jessica Collins) elected their top two candidates with full quotas, the remainder of the pack was whittled away until Mehreen Faruqi of the Greens crossed the threshold to win the fifth seat leaving Stacey and Beljic competing for the sixth. At that point, Stacey led Beljic by 0.886 quotas to 0.823, which preferences from Faruqi’s 0.069 surplus were insufficient to close, Stacey winning at the last by 0.891 quotas to 0.867.
As this simplification of the distribution illustrates, Stacey passed Beljic with the exclusion of Legalise Cannabis one step before the election of the Greens (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments notes it was actually two steps, the previous transfer from Family First’s exclusion having put him ahead), a transfer that included 0.2446 quotas worth of first preferences for Legalise Cannabis and 0.1510 in preferences picked up along the way. My model based on preference flows in 2022 had Labor, One Nation and the Greens gaining very similar shares of preferences with the exclusion of Legalise Cannabis: instead, One Nation gained 0.146 quotas, the Greens 0.123 and Labor only 0.066, the 0.0797 gap between the One Nation and Labor shares pushing One Nation to their 0.024 quota winning margin. However, that is only part of the story of how my model’s projection of a 0.112 quota winning margin for Labor proved out by 0.136 quotas: up to the point of Legalise Cannabis’s exclusion, Labor under-performed the model by 0.046 quotas and One Nation over-performed it by about the same amount. Further insights are available to be gleaned from the full ballot paper data that has already been published by the AEC, though this will have to wait for now.
In the Bradfield recount, Nicolette Boele hit the lead today – but not for long, her one-vote advantage being reversed in the last updates for the day. Debate rages as to whether there is any underlying pattern within changes that have collectively reduced her deficit so far from eight votes to one, with what I would guess to be about 40% of the recount remaining to be done, continuing into today. Updates that looked promising for Boele based on the theory that large numbers of first preferences for Gisele Kapterian meant opportunities for them to be knocked out as informal have in some cases failed to deliver, notably today’s revision for the St Ives pre-poll centre, which reduced both candidates’ totals by one. Thirty-seven of 66 ordinary booths have been recounted, plus I assume all of the absent votes and an unknowable but obviously significant share of the 14,666 postals, but none of the 3405 declaration pre-polls.
The theory of high primary vote disadvantage in recounts has looked good in other contexts, including the Bradfield preference distribution where it played to Boele’s disadvantage by harming her main sources of preferences – and also in the partial recount in Goldstein, which seems to be almost finsihed. Tim Wilson has lost a net 63 votes since the start of the recount to Zoe Daniel’s 36, reducing his lead to 233. The AEC advises we can expect a correction tomorrow involving, among other things, a “change of 50” in favour of Daniel – which could mean a reduction in her deficit to around 183, or a transfer from Wilson to Daniel that would get it all the way to 133. Neither would get her as far as the 100 vote threshold she would need for the AEC to determine if it will keep the ball in play by proceeding to a full recount, though the latter might just about get her within striking range if the tide kept flowing in her favour.
Sending whatever magic I can muster to Nicolette Boele 🙂
I can’t see any other result than a by election for Bradfield. Even if there is a winner and not an incredible draw, hard for there to be full confidence that there was a clear winner, especially with many votes declared Informal being very ‘touch and go’. The court of disputed returns will be in session soon!!!
It looked like the Legalise Cannabis prefs got ON over the line in WA too. Any comment William?
G’day all, I too see no other outcome than the loser of the recount process taking this to the Court of Disputed Returns and maybe then a new byelection. This saga will have no quick resolution.
G’day to the mighty Nathan, thanks again to our leader and master William, let’s keep the good and reasoned discussion going that we had in the previous incarnations of this thread, I for one enjoy getting to know people who are similar politics nerds to me.
Emilijah Beljic attended the post election ALP caucus meeting on the assumption she was going to be the 3rd Labor person elected to the Senate in NSW, she is in the pic of Albo with all his new MPs – Labor will be rather disappointed with what happened yesterday.
I am not sure if I am reading WB’s post correctly – Bradfield counting continuing today?
I still think Boele must be slightly favoured, having clawed back 7 votes so far. Turramurra PPVC is going to be important.
I also agree that we are likely to see a fresh election. It’s hard to see the margin (either way) exceeding a handful of votes. The McEwen court process involved the judge reviewing decisions made during the count about contentious votes, so that may also be in play here, but hearing in mind that post McEwen AEC procedures have been tightened considerably.
I have heard whispers of some dirty tricks during the campaign which could also get an airing in court.
Good morning! John Pesutto has failed to raise the $1.5m needed for Moira Deeming’s legal fees by deadline.
Hawthorn and Nepean by-elections incoming. Amelia Hamer will be dropped in versus teal Rob Baillieu after missing out on Kooyong. Who knows will be made to clean up Sam Groth’s mess, Georgie Crozier would be glad to see the back of him.
Two Liberal dynasties thrashing it out – Hamer vs Baillieu. Wonder if Moira Deeming will turn up and campaign for Amelia renters rights party?
Morning! Apparently they will be counting today.
If the future counting looks like the past, Teal will end up 6 ahead. Not saying that this is true, but it is as good a guess as any at this stage.
Turramurra PPVC @ 6,404 votes is the last of the Big & Blue Booths to re-count so it will be one to watch for sure.
There have only been 3 changes that have been more than 1 or 2, and it’s these three that have skewed the “trend” (if you want to call it that) to look Teal Friendly as they all went Teal (and were all on Wed). All other changes have all been only 1 or 2 both for and against each side and it been 12 booths to 10 infavour of Blue (and 15 no change). It’s these 3 that have made the difference. If they were also just 1 or 2 we would still be 8-13 ahead for Blue: The are Strong Blue 1P but nothing like StIves PPVC etc (and Killara East was even a Teal TCP)
– Lindfield: 6 (1,428)
– Castle Cove: 4 (1,674)
– Killara East: 3 (1,671)
I guess in summary: We have had 37 Booths updated, and their distribution looks something like this (tried to nett out those with multiple updates)
– 15 x 0 TCP Change:
– 11 x 1 TCP Change: 4 for Teal, 7 for Blue
– 8 x 2 TCP Change: 3 for Teal, 5 for Blue
– 1 x 3 TCP Change: 1 for Teal, 0 for Blue
– 1 x 4 TCP Change: 1 for Teal, 0 for Blue
– 1 x 6 TCP Change: 1 for Teal, 0 for Blue
It really is just the 3 that has made the difference for Teal so far. No idea if there will be more like these (and who they will favour) but there will be heaps more 0, 1 and 2’s.
A good thing they’re counting on a Saturday, those of us totally addicted to the recount will be happy.
I was laughing yesterday about the betting agencies taking bets on who’ll win the recount, it made me think that Aussies will bet on anything, like the proverbial two flies crawling up a wall.
Sky News last night(yes, I watch now and then) were promoting One Nation as the real opposition to the Albanese Government, now they’ve got 4 senators. I laughed at that one too.
Nathan – you were on the Scotch last night, good idea mate! And thinking about Roseville, your neck of the woods, I’ve had many a good drinking session at the Greengate in my time with the lads.
WB claims that the declaration pre polls haven’t been counted yet. 3400 of them and Lib primary is only 30% which is fairly low. So that could be good for Kapterian. The retort to that could be that because they were counted later, perhaps they were better scrutinised than the ordinary’s.
While we are looking at who the updates are favouring, there is also that be lump of postals and the unkown nature of how far through they are. We do know that there have been 5 updates so far, Teal has won 3 Vs 2 batches to Blue and gained 3 TCP (5 for teal, 2 for blue). Their distribution looks like this:
– ? x 0 TCP Change: no idea as there is no update triggered if a batch does not change
– 3 x 1 TCP Change: 1 for Teal, 2 for Blue
– 2 x 2 TCP Change: 2 for Teal, 0 for Blue
….so far just 0, 1 and 2’s
@Democracy Sausage – yeah done the Greengate a few times as its a nice central location for the area. The upstairs event rooms work pretty well too for a bigger gathering.
If Zoe Daniel has gained over 100 votes on Tim Wilson over this partial recount, it rather makes a mockery of the 100 vote recount margin. While yes, the argument could run that most of the available votes just got recounted already, the confidence factor in this particular count has been shot, compare it to the tiny movements observed in the Bradfield recount.
Much as I like Zoe Daniel and I dislike Tim Wilson, it’s really time she conceded, I don’t see this partial recount overturning Wilson’s lead to any great extent.
Bradfield is a different kettle of fish entirely of course!
Nathan – I love a good pub, and the Greengate is one of the best.
A look at the remaining booths with at least 1000 in them:
Warrawee – 2,100 votes, Primary: 33% Boele, 33% Kapt
Wahroonga East – 1,800 votes, Primary: 40% Kapt, 29% Boele
Willoughby South – 1,000 votes, Primary: 34% Kapt, 24% Boele
Willoughby North – 1,700 votes, Primary: 36% Kapt, 31% Boele
Willoughby – 1,900 votes, Primary: 32% Kapt, 28% Boele
Turramurra North. – 1,500 votes, Primary: 41% Kapt, 29% Boele
South Turramurra Heights – 2,200 votes, Primary: 35% Boele, 33% Kapt
St Ives South – 1,400 votes, Primary: 40% Kapt, 29% Boele
St Ives North – 1,300 votes, Primary: 42% Kapt, Boele 23%
St Ives East – 1,400 votes, Primary: 45% Kapt, 25% Boele
St Ives – 1,400 votes, Primary: 42% Kapt, 25% Boele
Roseville East – 1,300 votes, Primary: 40% Kapt, 30% Boele
Roseville – 1,400 votes, Primary: 34% Kapt, 27% Boele
Pymble West – 1,800 votes, Primary: 34% Kapt, 34% Boele
All other booths are small ones. So the above is what we’re looking out for in addition to Turramurra PPVC.
Boele should have some hunting ground in the St Ives Booths and Turramurra PPVC. Kapt should have some hunting ground in Warrawee, Pymble West, South Turramurra Heights, Willoughby, Willoughby North, Roseville. Everything else seems possibly neutral or minimal movement.
+ my earlier note of Pre-polls:
“WB claims that the declaration pre polls haven’t been counted yet. 3400 of them and Lib primary is only 30% which is fairly low. So that could be good for Kapterian. The retort to that could be that because they were counted later, perhaps they were better scrutinised than the ordinary’s.”
…and for comparison here the booth with the “best” TCP win (6) for Teal so far
Lindfield – 1,400 votes, Primary: 42% Kapt, 29% Boele
Turramurra PPVC is the critical one, Boele really has to do well out of the recount there
Dr Bonham has had a go at projecting the 2025 Senate count onto a Double Dissolution election with all 76 seats up..
Rough seat estimate of 2025 Senate election as DD:
ALP 31
L-NP 24
Green 11
ON 6
LCP, Rennick, Lambie, Pocock 1
Sam Goth won’t resign his seat but he might have to resign the Deputy leadership of the Victorian Liberals. But even that looks questionable. Georgie Crozier should take it to IBAC.
C@tmomma and few others are bit of a fans of Legalise Cannabis. Even I preferenced LC above all others after ALP for Senate ticket based on musings of people like C@tmomma(no I am not blaming her because it my decision in the end).
But I did not expect ‘Vote LC 1’ voters to preference ON over ALP to get ON over the line in 2 states.
Maybe from now onwards I will preference them last amongst ‘progressive’ parties.
Vale Loretta Swit, 87, who played Houlihan on M.A.S.H.
Is it just me or is Boele not picking up much from postals seeing at they’re already being counted. 14,700 postals and a Lib primary of 43%.
In a decision by the best court money can buy:
[‘The Supreme Court on Friday allowed President Donald Trump’s administration to suspend a Biden-era humanitarian parole program that allowed half a million immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to temporarily live and work in the United States.
It was the second time this month that the high court sided with Trump’s efforts to revoke temporary legal status for immigrants – even as Trump has continued to rail against the federal judiciary. The Supreme Court previously cleared the way for the administration to revoke another temporary program that provided work permits to hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans.
The court’s brief order was not signed and, as if often the case on its emergency docket, did not offer any reasoning. Two liberal justices – Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson – dissented from the decision.
Though the emergency decision from the Supreme Court is not final – the underlying legal case will continue in lower courts – the order will allow the administration to expedite deportations for an estimated 530,000 migrants who had previously benefited from the program. An unknown number of those beneficiaries may have applied for other forms of protection or immigration relief.
“I cannot overstate how devastating this is,” said Karen Tumlin, founder and director of Justice Action Center, which was part of the legal team representing the migrants. “The Supreme Court has allowed the Trump administration to unleash widespread chaos, not just for our clients and class members, but for their families, their workplaces, and their communities.”
In a scathing dissent penned by Jackson and joined by Sotomayor, the court’s junior liberal member said her colleagues had “plainly botched” the formula used to decide whether lifting a lower court ruling would have negative consequences for parties involved in a dispute, particularly one involving scores of individuals at immediate risk of deportation to countries they fled.’] – CNN
I feel Kapterian is destined to win this eventually. Just a feeling, no data. She will sneak through, lead the LNP one day and maybe PM. Boele can’t take the lead, gets close but no breakaway. You see this in sport – instant reply when challenged but never headed.
@HN – Trouble is we don’t know how many of the postals have been counted. They are doing them in batches and we have seen 5 batches so far. No idea if there are 1 or 100 more to come.
Yes that is what happened with Gladys and her state seat of Willoughby. She very barely won it on her first go and then went on to become Premier.
Mavissays: Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 9:17 am
In a decision by the best court money can buy:………………..
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Wrong thread. This is about the recounts…
If a DD election is predicted to produce six PHON senators, best not go there.
WB stated re postals counted: “an unknowable but obviously significant share of the 14,666 postals”
When the regular counting ended in Bradfield before formal distribution of preferences(did we have informal distribution of preferences till then?), Boele led by 43 votes.
But during formal distribution of preferences, there was a turnaround of 55 votes in favour of Libs and Gisele K led at the end of formal distribution of preferences by 12 votes
During recounting, there is a turnaround of 11 votes till now in favour of Boele.
From what I gather from discussions, all this is happening because votes have been put in informal pile.
There is probably no actual trend in the Bradfield recount. There are very small movements when you consider that there is thousands and thousands of votes being looked at and only a very small number of adjustments are being made. It is a bit like looking at 10,000 coin flips, seeing that heads has a half dozen more occurrences, claiming there is a trend. It is the gamblers fallacy in a different format.
The actual winner is basically going to be a coin flip but because the margin will be so small the court is likely to order a redo -there will be a few voters who either voted twice or postal votes that got chucked incorrectly. This will actually take a few months – time for the court to sit and a make determination, then the writs for the by-election have to be issued by the speaker and then the by-election will take 3 to 4 weeks to run.
“As this simplification of the distribution illustrates, Stacey passed Beljic with the exclusion of Legalise Cannabis one step before the election of the Greens”
– Actually Stacey has already passed Beljic off the Family First exclusion, prior to the LCP throw he is on .7898 quotas not .7393. The LCP preferences were weak for Labor but I think Beljic has already lost even if the 2022 flows are repeated.
One of the key ingredients is the extremely strong flow off the Libertarian-led ticket compared to the Liberal Democrats in 2022. At the end there is also Inclusive Gregory pollution with Coalition votes that reached Faruqi at very low value being distorted in her surplus and weakening its flow to Labor, but the lead is too large for that to be the deciding factor at that point.
Ven – Boele led by 43 votes on the indicative count. That’s just seeing whether a ballot places Kapterian or Boele above the other to get a rough idea of the 2CP. The formal distribution is what actually decides the margin and Kapt won by 8 on that. That’s where they actually conduct the preference elimination. In this process they pickup informal votes and that disadvantaged Boele because she was the candidate more relying on preferences.
And there hasn’t been a turnaround for Boele of 11. Kapt’s margin was 8 and it’s now 1. The recount has gone as high as 14 vote margin for Kapt to a 1 vote margin for Boele.
@Ven – So far in the recount, both Teal and Blue have lost formal TCP, approx 70 for Blue and 60 for Teal. WB did note that early on, one of the booths actually added some additional formal votes. There have also been a couple of votes swapping pile here and there.
”
True Believersays:
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 9:18 am
I feel Kapterian is destined to win this eventually. Just a feeling, no data. She will sneak through, lead the LNP one day and maybe PM. Boele can’t take the lead, gets close but no breakaway. You see this in sport – instant reply when challenged but never headed.
”
TB
Are you a true believer of ALP or Libs? 🙂
Gisele K to become PM ? Did you by any chance watch an early 90s Australian movie on Channel 9, where a woman becomes PM defeating her evil colleagues in her party and govern for a long time?
Oh we could’ve had Gladys in federal parliament. You can only dream. She would’ve won Bradfield 75-25% 2CP.
Vensays: Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 9:36 am
…..Gisele K to become PM ? Did you by any chance watch an early 90s Australian movie on Channel 9, where a woman becomes PM defeating her evil colleagues in her party and govern for a long time?
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UK 1975 – 1990
Ven
Labor mate.
Reckon I can spot talent on both sides of the fence. She would be a chance for sure to lead the LNP. She is young so can be PM after Jim serves 4 terms – say 2040.
Peeps – I’ve got to do some mowin and blowin while it’s not raining. If I miss any results, do you mind also posting the total TCP of the Teal and Blue as the changes happen so I can track the seats? eg it’s currently 56,131 vs 56,130.
Thanks
Nathan
To be fair, we have had a good run of pretty solid and likeable NSW Premiers. I’m very impressed with Minns and he would have looked great in a blue tie. All could have gone on to Fed.
Edit – and now I’m going off topic!
I’d imagine that Legalise Cannabis would attract its share of what I sometimes refer to as “f*** youse all” voters (as do minor right parties) so it’s perhaps not so surprising that preferences from that type of voter might go to One Nation ahead of any of the larger parties.
(Once encountered a fine example of the genre at a council election when someone walked up and asked the assembled HTV handers-out “Who are the racists? I want to vote for the racists!”).
Thinking ahead to a court challenge, having a close margin is obviously significant, but there also needs to be evidence of errors or wrong practice. With the latter, if I were the losing party, I would be having a good hard look at practices with the Special Hospital Teams and the nursing homes. I don’t think it would be too hard to find a few instances of improper assistance – at least enough to count doubt over the result. Family members, residents, and/or staff could all potentially give evidence about specific instances which cumulatively add up to the required level of doubt. The Court might also get involved in adjudicating more contentious decisions on formality issues (as happened in McEwen in 2007).
Norwood (SA) in 1979/1980 was a rare example of misconduct by a candidate leading to a fresh election. The margin initially was 33 votes out of 15,000 votes cast – so quite a large margin in relative terms. The misconduct was by the Liberal candidate – who in Italian language campaign literature incorrectly represented himself as the local member. The Liberal’s win was quashed by the Court and Labor duly won the fresh re-election. Another curiosity about that period was that there were 3 Norwood elections in less than 12 months – the first one caused by Don Dunstan’s retirement. So over a 12 month period Norwood was represented by 3 different members of Parliament.
I’ve got an idea for the ALP in for a subsequent election in Bradfield. Promise something to the electorate that no one else can deliver….and here it is, “McCallum to deliver Infrastructure Grants to support the TOD in collaboration with local council and state government”. ALP easily wins Bradfield with the TPP of 55/45.
Bradfield traditionally gets very little election pork as it’s been taken for granted by the likes of Fletcher. My suggestion would be to work with the Local Council and State ALP to identify and fund the infrastructure to support the TOD. That funding is currently $0. It’s the major issue for the “traditional” voters and the level of frustration is very high. I even protest voted in the Council election over it. Council’s meeting last week had almost 100 speakers venting and they had to call time or there would have been another 100. The “best” the state Lib member for Davidson has done so far is to send an email (this morning) with a link “I’ve launched a petition” on the issue.
Interested to see what TB Exchange lists the Odds of a ALP win in Bradfield would be in a subsequent election of they dropped that promise.
Drat! Wrong thread again! Apologies.
Outsider:
If the margin’s less than 10 wouldn’t double votes of itself be a reason to nullify. Most certainly there are at least 10 double mark offs of the roll.
Bradfield rebooted election odds:
Liberal – $2.20
Labor – $4.50
Teal. $2.30
Source: TB Exchange
aweirdnerd (she/her) says:
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 3:17 am
(Last post of previous thread)
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Thanks for that 4cp Senate analysis. Very interesting and fits well with actual results.
I think Greens doing well BTL is a real thing and not an artefact of your calculations.
Outsider: If the margin’s less than 10 wouldn’t double votes of itself be a reason to nullify. Most certainly there are at least 10 double mark offs of the roll.
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Wouldn’t the “error” be half that, eg 5 for double votes?