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Thursday
As suggested here yesterday, today’s Queensland and Western Australian Senate distributions both produced results of two Labor, two Coalition, one Greens and one One Nation – predictably in Queensland’s case, less so in Western Australia’s. It was noted that my model based on 2022 election preference flows got the One Nation candidate in WA to a winning margin over the third Labor candidate of 0.013 quotas, and that the party had over-performed this in similar circumstances by 0.046 quotas in South Australia and 0.032 in Victoria. In the case of WA the improvement was 0.023 quotas, the margin at the final count being 0.895 to 0.859. That just leaves the New South Wales count to be finalised, which is scheduled for 9:30am tomorrow, and looks like a clear-cut result of three Labor, two Coalition and one Greens.
In the Bradfield recount, Nicolette Boele’s momentum yesterday failed to carry over to today: she began proceedings two votes behind and ended three votes behind, with a net 22 votes being knocked out for Kapterian and 23 for Boele. Much of today’s effort was seemingly spent on the 9589 votes of the Willoughby pre-poll centre, which disappointed for Boele in yielding only a net gain of one vote, despite the high Liberal vote there. Another part of today’s recounting was postals, which I presume wasn’t all of them given the modest scale of the changes, with two primary votes knocked out for both leading candidates. This unknown factor means it’s no longer possible to precisely calculate how much of the recount has been completed: ordinary votes amounting 41.1% have been accounted for, together with however many of the 12.3% of the total that were postals have been accounted for. The Liberal favourability deficit out of what’s been counted will also have narrowed, though not closed (remembering that the relative Liberal strength out of what’s been counted will likely be to their disadvantage, since it means more opportunities for their votes to be knocked out).
It seems clear now that the Goldstein recount will not pull any rabbits out of the hat for Zoe Daniel: Tim Wilson’s lead remains unchanged from yesterday at 263.
Wednesday
The Victorian Senate result was finalised today, producing the anticipated result of Labor three, Liberal two and Greens one: in order, Raff Ciccone (Labor), James Paterson (Liberal), Jess Walsh (Labor), Jane Hume (Liberal), Steph Hodgins-May (Greens) and Michelle Ananda-Rajah (Labor). Ananda-Rajah won at the final count with 0.869 quotas to the One Nation candidate’s 0.814, which was 0.032 quotas narrower than anticipated by my model based on preference flows from 2022. Something similar was observed in South Australia, where the final count likewise pitted One Nation against Labor’s successful third candidate, the final result being 0.046 quotas narrower than anticipated by my model.
This is encouraging for Tyron Whitten, One Nation’s candidate in Western Australia, where the count will be finalised tomorrow at 3pm eastern time. My earlier modelling of the result gave the third Labor candidate a narrow win over Whitten of 0.869 quotas to 0.852, but this was before Labor’s vote share fell back on late counting – re-running it with the final results, I get Whitten winning by 0.862 to 0.849. Half an hour later, the Queensland result will be finalised – here a result of two Labor, two Liberal National, one Greens and one One Nation looks assured.
Gisele Kapterian’s lead in Bradfield was slashed today from 14 to two, as proceedings went more as I expected them to go initially: votes for both candidates knocked out as informal, but the process favouring Nicolette Boele by virtue of the recount mostly affecting first preference votes for the two leading candidates, of which Kapterian has more to lose. On Monday and Tuesday, when as many previously informal votes were being deemed formal as vice-versa, Kapterian’s lead climbed from eight to 14 – today, Kapterian had a net loss of 29 votes compared with 17 for Boele.
The process has now resulted in the recounting of 30,357 votes out of 118,856, or 25.5%, encompassing 16 out of 52 election day booths and four out of 14 pre-poll voting centres. Non-ordinary vote types, including over 14,500 postals, are yet to be examined. Out of the votes examined so far, 33.5% were first preferences for Kapterian and 28.2% for Boele, compared with 38.1% and 27.0% out of the total count, with the two-candidate count being 53.9-46.1 in Boele’s favour compared with 50.0-50.0 overall. For reasons noted in yesterday’s update, this indicates the votes to be rechecked lean to Kapterian.
If today’s dynamic holds, with votes being knocked out as informal providing most of the changes, it seems very likely that Boele will soon pull ahead and stay there. However, I have no reason to be sure that we won’t see a re-emergence of the earlier dynamic of as many votes doing the reverse, in which case Kapterian may still be a show. Either way, the margin looks like being fine enough to raise the strong possibility of a legal challenge. Ben Raue of The Tally Room has done us all a fine service in attending the count as a scrutineer and recording his observations.
The partial recount in Goldstein began today, and got about 15% through without bringing any joy for Zoe Daniel, whose deficit against Tim Wilson is out from 260 to 263.
Finally, the AEC is now well into finalising two-party Labor-versus-Coalition counts for “non-classic” contests, which will ultimately allow for a national two-party preferred result. This will settle somewhere between 55-45 and 55.4-44.5, indicating that pollsters who were revising preference models based on the 2022 result to make them less favourable to Labor would have done better to have let them be. This under-estimation of Labor extends to the estimates I was using for non-classic contests to produce the national two-party preferred on my results page – I have revised these upwards, though probably not far enough.
Tuesday
End of day update: In the second day of the Bradfield recount, Gisele Kapterian again widened her lead over Nicolette Boele, which has gone from eight to ten to fourteen. Substantial revisions have been made in the Artarmon Central (17 informal votes reclassified as formal) and Gorton (14 votes going the other way) without appreciably advantaging one candidate or the other – the changes arise from another 13 booths that have been rechecked, five producing revisions in favour of Kapterian against one for Boele. Boele can take at least some comfort in the fact that these booths recorded a relatively narrow 29.6% to 27.6% advantage for Kapterian on the primary vote, compared with 38.1% to 27.0% overall, on the principle that opportunities await for challenges to the formality of Kapterian votes. So far though, it seems that as many informal votes are being deemed formal as the other way round, contrary to the experience of the preference distribution.
Earlier: The Senate distribution for Tasmania produced a result of two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and Jacqui Lambie, in the order of Carol Brown (Labor), Claire Chandler (Liberal), Nick McKim (Greens), Richard Dowling (Labor), Jacqui Lambie (Jacqui Lambie Network) and Richard Colbeck (Liberal). With four candidates chasing two seats at the second last exclusion, Lambie had 0.82 quotas, Colbeck 0.80, third Labor candidate Bailey Falls 0.73 and Lee Hanson 0.57. Hanson’s exclusion put both Lambie (1.05) and Colbeck (1.01) over the line for a full quota, leaving Falls holding the bag with 0.80. I should have had more faith in my model based on 2022 preference flows in last night’s update, as Lambie got more preferences this time from lower order and mostly right-wing candidates, outperforming my model’s projection of 1.00 quotas for her. Colbeck outperformed his projected 0.92, while Falls did weaker than the anticipated 0.87, again contrary to what I suggested might happen last night.
The distribution for the South Australian count was published today, showing that Labor’s third candidate, Charlotte Walker, recorded 1.00 quotas at the final count ahead of 0.80 for the One Nation candidate, against which my model’s projection of 1.00 to 0.75 stacks up quite well. Also finalised today was the Northern Territory Senate count, confirming the formality of Malarndirri McCarthy (Labor) and Jacinta Price (Country Liberal) winning the two seats. The button-press for the Victorian Senate count is scheduled for 9:30am tomorrow – the evidence so far offers no encouragement for One Nation that they will be able to close what my model projects as a deficit of 0.85 to 0.76 in the race for the final seat against the third Labor candidate. This will shortly be followed by the foregone conclusion of the Australian Capital Territory count.
The preference distribution has been finalised in Calwell, Labor’s Basem Abdo emerging a comfortable winner with 49,481 votes (55.1%) to independent Carly Moore’s 40,350 (44.9%).
Monday
Today’s developments:
• The preference distribution in Calwell has all but confirmed a win for Labor, who received more than two-thirds from the exclusion of Greens, putting Basem Abdo on 48.0%, independent Carly Moore on 29.7% and the Liberal candidate on 22.3%. This leaves Moore needing an all-but-impossible 91% share of the preferences with the imminent exclusion of the Liberal.
• The button was pressed on the South Australian election Senate count, confirming the anticipated result of Labor three (Marielle Smith, Karen Grogan and Charlotte Walker), Liberal two (Alex Antic and Anne Ruston) and Greens one (Sarah Hanson-Young). We must await publication of the preference distribution for further detail.
• The Australian Electoral Commission advises that we can expect the buttons to be pressed tomorrow morning for Tasmania and the Northern Territory. The latter is a foregone conclusion, but the former is likely to find a three-way battle for the last two seats between Jacqui Lambie, the third Labor candidate and the second Liberal candidate. My earlier modelling suggested Lambie was very likely to be re-elected, since substantially different preference flows from the last election would be needed for her to fall behind both Liberal and Labor. On reflection though, the former seems more plausible than I was allowing, given the observable impact of Lambie’s opposition to salmon farming on the geographic distribution of her primary vote, and the fact that most of the preferences being distributed are from right-wing parties. The latter might arise as a corollary of Labor’s stronger performance overall.
• The AEC announced today responded to Zoe Daniel’s request for a recount in Goldstein by announcing a partial recount that would consider first preference votes only, which in fact account for about three-quarters of the total. Substantial revisions were made to the totals during the course of the preference distribution, a process which examined only the remaining one-quarter of the vote, ultimately with the effect of increasing Tim Wilson’s margin from 129 to 270. The recount will begin on Wednesday and is expected to take about four days.
• The first day of the Bradfield recount, which may take as long as two weeks, increased Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian’s lead over independent Nicolette Boele from eight votes to ten.
St Ives prepoll brings home the bacon – just
Looks like -2 for Kapterian
Boele sits pat
Well, thanks to this thread I have been prompted to finally look up and understand TCP and TPP. Very foreign to a pom but quite understandable when you know.
As a pseph I think it’s really good that they do the TPP everywhere, though I can also sympathise with those who might think it’s a waste of taxpayers’ money and merely academic.
It must be useful in some places for the main parties in targeting resources for future elections for both HoR and Senate, especially where demographics are changing and they might be in with a shot even though they didn’t make the 2CP last time, etc. (HoR) or where they might want to maximise the turnout (Senate even where no hope for HoR).
In what way it’s directly useful to the public is less clear to me, unless they’re in the 3% max who go to that in-depth level of tactical voting analysis before voting.
@HN – it kinda is. I want both the LNP and ALP to field good strong local candidates. Make the choice tough. These are the only two viable options for forming Gvt. I’ve got a sort of “baby sitter rule”, would you let XYZ baby sit your Kids. If not, stay away. Same goes with politicians. Would you let XYZ run the country? I can live with ALP & LNP. The rest is a hard no.
Wow – St Ives PPVC only delivered 2 to the Teal. It does take her into the winning position for the first time but I thought it would be something epic…. not 2. The result was 3 off Blue, 1 off Teal.
Nathansays:
Friday, May 30, 2025 at 5:25 pm
I don’t want to downplay Dutton’s influence, but in Bradfield we have also seen big demographic changes with the boundary pushing further down the train line & the construction of a lot more apartments in what was once the “leafy” upper north shore. Under the TOD it will get more Team Red.
中华人民共和国
Sorry for my ignorance Nathan but is there a sizeable Asian/Indian Population in Bradfield? Is it growing?
Take a seat like Moreton in Brisbane. Whilst it was Labor before the election – it was always considered Marginal. The long term MP retired and Julie-Ann Campbell (Ex ALP QLD State Secretary) ran and picked up a 7% swing. Julie-Ann is a good stick but also has Asian heritage. Moreton would easily be the most Asian seat in QLD with Sunnybank and Stretton.
I really think the LNP damaged themselves more than what has been mentioned by doing a deal with One Nation.
Interested on your thoughts mate.
So it appears all the big pre-poll booths have been recounted. Some challenged ballots may be still going through the decision process.
And with the margin so tight, it’s flipped of the coin territory
I am further South in Willoughby – despite the ever present Teal supporters (pretty much at my bus stop every morning for a month or so) – I didn’t get the same feeling of support for Nicolette as there was for Kylea. It is a pity as we had an excellent Labor candidate against Kylea and Trent. This time – Labor was non-existent. It still doesn’t feel like this area is ready to switch to Labor. More is the pity. Hope I am wrong. Given that – I think Teal is the best choice. One less member blindly supporting an anti climate, anti worker agenda.
I can’t believe it – that can’t be all of St Ives PPVC surely. Boele only netted like 2-3 votes IIRC previous margin. Big booth with a 50% Lib primary. I expect further updates.
I make it 37 of 65 booths in. And with all the big ones done, things may speed up next week.
Did Legalise Cannabis not including Labor in their HTV (instead, wasting it by having the far-right Libertarians and the useless Fusion/Justice/Democrats) cost Labor the final WA Senate seat?
Turramurra PPVC still to come. Also strong for Kapterian on PVs. This is tight.
@ Democracy Sausage, I live in Reid and Sitou is an ok MP not great.
She was largely invisible for most of the term and does have vulnerabilities, namely her over-reliance on Burwood and Rhodes electorally.
Having said that she has been very lucky that she has had 2 election cycles where she has benefitted from either an MP (in Fiona Martin who was abandoned by large swathes of her branches, and an on the nose Fed Government) or a lacklustre candidate (in Grange Chung who was also saddled by Dutton).
Libs can still win this seat, and I will still call it somewhat marginal/barely safe for Labor. It is still largely affluent, and one or two poor economic decisions by a government will seem them get punished especially in this electorate. Not withstanding the state seat of Drummoyne and Canada Bay Council are Liberal held
@Ghost of Whitlam, I can’t believe very many Legalise Cannabis voters would have checked out the how-to-vote. I’m pretty sure the received wisdom is party reputations and ideological alignment are much more important.
“Hmm I always had the impression that voters were either gonna completely reject Dutton or embrace him. No in between. He seemed like that kinda politician. It was the former.”
It was the former, but lest we forget this was not a foregone conclusion just because there’s always been a heavy bias against him on the pages of PB.
It was due to a terribly planned and executed campaign. The team behind Dutton who did that must either be secret opponents (in which case they did a good job) or else their heads should definitely have rolled by now.
It’s easy to forget, in the aftermath of a blowout result, that Dutton was actually slightly favoured to win 7 weeks before the election (let’s say it was ‘up for grabs’ at least) and that his favourables/pref. PM ratings were in similar territory to Albanese’s and on an upward trajectory (was never on average in front on PM ratings but was getting close). It was Dutton’s for the taking if Libs just didn’t mess up in the campaign. Presidential-style campaign kinda suited the moment as Labor seemed weak.
Floating voters didn’t want Labor to run the economy any more, and were (at least) open to Libs’ persuasion / sealing the deal in the campaign. Instead, as the campaign went on they saw a party that looked less and less ready for government to the point that Labor seemed the least bad bet – at least they had some kind of a plan, which they articulated, well, articulately.
I still maintain that it was not a ‘love-in’ election for Labor of any description, the genius behind their landslide win was the incompetence of the alternative and they do well to remember these things.
To give Labor credit, they had a plan for the campaign which they executed without any fuss – in the end, that was the only bar they needed to clear with their opponents seemingly making it up as they went along. Labor looked hungry and ‘ready to go’ by comparison.
Apologies for the digression from the real topic of this thread.
Yes you’re right Outsider.
Turramurra BRADFIELD PPVC With its 6,148 formals – 57.74% Liberal is yet to be reported
Turramurra PPVC has more votes than St Ives PPVC (6400 v 5800) but the Lib primary was higher in St Ives PPVC. And that was a bad net of votes out of St Ives PPVC for Boele.
And the informal rate for Turramurra PPVC is 4% vs. 5.4% informal for St Ives PPVC.
Boele would hope to net at least like 7 votes out of Turramurra PPVC given that’s the last major PPVC.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays: Friday, May 30, 2025 at 5:50 pm
Sorry for my ignorance Nathan but is there a sizeable Asian/Indian Population in Bradfield? Is it growing?
~~~~~~~~~~
I think I’m right in saying our local area is now 50+% from non English speaking backgrounds. Biggest proportion is Mandarin speakers, some Cantonese, fair bit of Thai and Korean. The thing is, this population is relatively wealthy, and should be a great ground for the right LNP candidate. The idea that the Upper North Shore is old, stale, pale is dead.
Like you, my son’s better half is Chinese, flats in Chatswood, works in the City/Home. Great girl, can’t wait for her PR –> Citizen so I can help explain how voting works (she has never voted in her life).
ozpmn
“One less member blindly supporting an anti climate, anti worker agenda.”
If not regularly here, you may not have picked up that everyone is striving to keep the partisan stuff off this thread and limited to the main threads. Needless to say, not everyone is going to agree with your depiction of the Coalition above and so it could result in argumentative discussion that demeans the thread – which meanwhile has the exciting, nail-biting count in Bradfield to focus on. 🙂
Warrawee booth Boele leads on primary there and over 2000 votes FYI. It’s unchecked.
After that St Ives PPVC drop I’m much more confident this result will be void.
Kapterian back in the lead by 1 !!
Fair call btsays. Apologies all. Was more musing on why the teal vote might not go to Labor not trying to be partisan. Overstepped.
In the spirit of the thread. I think Nicolette will need to win this count convincingly. by-election very likely will go blue as Giselle appears a good moderate candidate who reminds people of Gladys and no baggage from a poorly run central campaign.
Based on the excellent comments by many so far the by elections looks pretty likely to me.
#I much prefer this thread to the open thread for exactly that reason. So doubly poor. It is nailbiting!
HN – I think your right. As odd as it sounds, I think the Blue camp will be breathing a sigh of relief after only dropping 2 in the St Ives PPVC. I know I am!
Kapterian back ahead by 1 vote. Just beat it (Michael Jackson voice)
We’re getting action now – that was Willoughby PPVC some 9,500 votes just rechecked. Lib primary of 40%. Another great move for the keys by Kapterian.
Ozpmn
I get it.
Bradfield also gained many more voters of Chinese and South Asian heritage from its portion of the abolished North Sydney electorate.
Ms Boele is now leading by 1 vote. I’ve looked in a couple of times and it’s see-sawing, but only by small amounts, single figures. It’s sure to go to another vote. The Liberals at least will cry blue murder if they lose and find excuses to challenge.
Three seats in 2022 (Curtin, Fowler, North Sydney) were won by Independents on less than 30% of the vote. So certainly possible.
(Sure it makes it harder – Forrest would have flipped Indy had a few more Labor voters voted tactically and got Chapman up to even 25% primaries. Grey something similar)
Willoughby PPVC – This is an Update to the earlier recount. Earlier today the Teal got 1 additional, and now it looks like 1 vote switched from Teal to Blue (extra 2 TCP), so Blue wins by 1. Very interesting. Biggest single booth (9,589) and 1P votes were heavy blue 3,642 vs 2,683 but TCP was pretty even.
If there is a rematch in Bradfield, Ms Boele still has a huge billboard on a building next to the Pacific Highway for motorists to view while stuck in one of the area’s major traffic choke points.
ozpmn
It was hard for the Labor candidate being up against 2 campaigns that both dropped >$1m on the campaign and not one media outlet willing to provide any coverage of candidates beyond the first 2. And yet the primary votes are basically the same as North Sydney last time….
The 2PP is quite possible to be >50% Labor – so not sure you are right when you say the area is not ready to switch to Labor
If there’s a rematch, then I think the most interesting thing would be if the ALP even bothered to put up a candidate in the fresh election? I would expect every man, woman and dog to try and stand though as it would be pretty high profile.
(Yes, the ALP might theoretically win the 2PP in this seat, like in Warringah and Wentworth, but I don’t think they’d realistically expect to make the last two, don’t need the seat, and why bother with the effort?)
But if the ALP don’t stand, it could make quite a difference to the result. Just no idea what yet!
@ Upnorth – Checked the 2021 Census data (now well out of date) for Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby (which is now pretty much Bradfield).
– Both parents born OS : >55%
– Both parents born in Oz : < 30%
– Over 50% have a Uni Degree
– Peak of the Pop Pyramid is 35-44 age group.
Nathansays:
Friday, May 30, 2025 at 6:16 pm
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays: Friday, May 30, 2025 at 5:50 pm
Sorry for my ignorance Nathan but is there a sizeable Asian/Indian Population in Bradfield? Is it growing?
~~~~~~~~~~
I think I’m right in saying our local area is now 50+% from non English speaking backgrounds. Biggest proportion is Mandarin speakers, some Cantonese, fair bit of Thai and Korean. The thing is, this population is relatively wealthy, and should be a great ground for the right LNP candidate. The idea that the Upper North Shore is old, stale, pale is dead.
Like you, my son’s better half is Chinese, flats in Chatswood, works in the City/Home. Great girl, can’t wait for her PR –> Citizen so I can help explain how voting works (she has never voted in her life).
中华人民共和国
Thanks cobber – Wechat was alive with anti-Hanson feelings – so might be something to my theory.
Wonderful to hear about your son’s better half. Unlike some I welcome migrants to Australia. They work damn hard and bring a vibrancy to our Nation. Of course you can explain to her as my Grandad explained to me “Always paint your house white and always vote Labor”. Safe weekend to you.
@Nathan – given that the St Ives PPVC (5,800 votes; Lib primary of 50%) and the Willoughby PPVC (9,600 votes; Lib primary 40%) didn’t do all that much for Boele, I can’t see how the Turramurra PPVC will do much for her either. Just my thoughts. And it seems like non-ordinary votes are being rechecked sporadically throughout the normal booth rechecks.
@Upnorth – have a great weekend. We were all immigrants at one point in our history.., and look at what we have collectively achieved! Funny, my Grandad always said “If you did not vote left when you were young, you have no heart…. If you do not vote right when you are older you have no brain”. 🙂 I’m guessing neither were that smart.
Upnorth – you’re a legend mate, and it’s always worth reading your comments on this blog. Ditto in relation to you too Nathan. Overall, some quality individuals in this thread, regardless of who you vote for. I’m a Labor lad, but I always get on well with Liberal supporters, my very best mate at high school was a Liberal for instance.
If there was another byelection, and Labor didn’t stand a candidate, you would assume Boele would pick up all that Labor vote, which she didn’t get all of on May 3 via preferences(20% of ALP voters preferenced Kapterian over her).
Nathan – do you have a quality beer or two set aside to drink only if Giselle wins?
@HN – yeah! St Ives PPVC got +2 and Willoughby PPVC got -1 to Teal. 15K Votes. Big Blue Booths, and only +1 TCP addition to Teal. Gobsmacked…. what I should I say is, “Well done to the AEC for their accuracy in the earlier counts”.
Peering at my scatter diag, Blue’s wins now encompasses most of the space while Teal is concentrated in the lower left. Still lots off seats in there included Turramurra PPVC. The only caution I have, is Teal is still doing better on average for every recount the win by “1” (2.3 for Teals, 1.38 for Blue) but blue is winning the recount 12 to 10 (and 15 no change). No idea on where we are at with the postal recount, bit so far it is -5 for Blue and -2 to Teal (so Nett +3 for Teal).
https://1drv.ms/i/c/1514c40d983e9348/EeDX5C2GUt1OnnGct2cnjaUBa584zlarFD71aeei0w3fpg?e=NMkNad
The randomness theory seems to be holding true! I’m hoping for a tie. Guaranteed re-run.
@ Democracy Sausage – I’m already on the Scotch! You speak some truth about the nature of people and the ability to discuss and argue without being tool. My mate’s kid is a Fed Labor Staffer. We get on the turps and argue about politics, agree the other is wrong (but oddly see each others core principle) then agree with are both top blokes before staggering off to bed. Our favourite argument is if Wong should thank Abbot for getting same sex marriage across the line. That one is Spicy! (and no, I don’t want to argue it here) 🙂 … that’s for the other thread I don’t visit.
Democracy Sausagesays:
Friday, May 30, 2025 at 7:15 pm
Upnorth – you’re a legend mate, and it’s always worth reading your comments on this blog. Ditto in relation to you too Nathan. Overall, some quality individuals in this thread, regardless of who you vote for. I’m a Labor lad, but I always get on well with Liberal supporters, my very best mate at high school was a Liberal for instance.
If there was another byelection, and Labor didn’t stand a candidate, you would assume Boele would pick up all that Labor vote, which she didn’t get all of on May 3 via preferences(20% of ALP voters preferenced Kapterian over her).
中华人民共和国
Shhh don’t tell the other thread but I like this one better! I grew up in Sugar Cane Country. Very very high National Party vote. We Labor folk were quite looked down on by the landed gentry. But most of my mates growing up were Tories. Played cricket, football (Rugby League), fished and drank together.
My old man ran as the Labor Candidate in the 1989 Goss Election. Heavy gerrymandered seat but we got an 18% swing. Still missed out. But dads biggest pride was winning our towns booth. Hadn’t been done since 1951 and hasn’t been since. You stay safe and have a beer for me.
Outsidersays: Friday, May 30, 2025 at 7:21 pm
The randomness theory seems to be holding true! I’m hoping for a tie. Guaranteed re-run.
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It looks like “Randomness” theory is stronger than “Big 1P Blue Vote Correction” theory but given the 2.3 to 1.4 average “win” to Teals it’s still a factor. What is not appearing is the “Wild Card” theory of a booth going rogue.
We are now
– 51% through the vote
– 57% of the booths
– ??? on the postals etc
All I can say is the AEC has done a great job on prior counts. The single biggest change so far is 6, but on average it is 2.3 to teal, and 1.4 to Blue. The median is also 2 to Teal and 1 to Blue.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #490 Friday, May 30th, 2025 – 7:40 pm
Would I be right in guessing that seat was Hinchinbrook?
I’m half kidding about randomness and hoping for a tie! I would like Boele to win and I know the statistical trend is in her favour (just) but I dare not hope too much… I thought at the outset of the recount she might win by 20 to 25, but it seems clear enough now it will be a lot less.
Democracy Sausagesays: Friday, May 30, 2025 at 7:15 pm
If there was another byelection, and Labor didn’t stand a candidate, you would assume Boele would pick up all that Labor vote, which she didn’t get all of on May 3 via preferences(20% of ALP voters preferenced Kapterian over her).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I’ve been pondering this a bit…. I don’t think it will hold. The 20-25% of ALP Voters that preferenced the LNP over the Teal did that deliberately and with forethought, and against the HTV. If Labor did not run in a subsequent election, I’m not sure they will change their intentions (even if it catches in their throat). That said, I find it unlikely that Labor would not run anyway, they may as well push as hard as possible to see where the ALP votes lands as it’s a no risk play and tests the battleground. At least I hope they will.
Democracy Sausagesays:
Friday, May 30, 2025 at 7:15 pm
If there was another byelection, and Labor didn’t stand a candidate, you would assume Boele would pick up all that Labor vote, which she didn’t get all of on May 3 via preferences(20% of ALP voters preferenced Kapterian over her).
******************************************
Not so fast. I keep seeing this 20% figure stated for flow of Labor preferences to Kapterian over Boele. Given the total preference flow to Boele is only 65.8% and the 1 Labor votes are almost 60% of the entire preference total, I can’t see how it can be that much about 70% for Labor to Boele. So around 30% to Kapterian.
There are 2 votes in my household alone that would be Liberal in a by election if Labor doesn’t stand – but they will
Seems like Kapterian leads by 1 vote, I assume there won’t be counting in Bradfield during the weekend, so the wait for counting to recommence next week will be excruciating for Bradfield watchers.
I wonder what the trajectory is now? What booths are left that haven’t be recounted yet? And out of these booths, would it favour Kapterian or Boele?
Yeah I think Boele will probs win but by less than 15 votes. Might even be less than 10. Then that’s when the real fun begins.
@Bludgeoned Westie:
The AEC have confirmed that the Bradfield recount will continue tommorow Saturday 31st. But not on the Sunday.
@Bludgeoned Westie:
The AEC have confirmed that the Bradfield recount will continue tommorow Saturday