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Thursday
As suggested here yesterday, today’s Queensland and Western Australian Senate distributions both produced results of two Labor, two Coalition, one Greens and one One Nation – predictably in Queensland’s case, less so in Western Australia’s. It was noted that my model based on 2022 election preference flows got the One Nation candidate in WA to a winning margin over the third Labor candidate of 0.013 quotas, and that the party had over-performed this in similar circumstances by 0.046 quotas in South Australia and 0.032 in Victoria. In the case of WA the improvement was 0.023 quotas, the margin at the final count being 0.895 to 0.859. That just leaves the New South Wales count to be finalised, which is scheduled for 9:30am tomorrow, and looks like a clear-cut result of three Labor, two Coalition and one Greens.
In the Bradfield recount, Nicolette Boele’s momentum yesterday failed to carry over to today: she began proceedings two votes behind and ended three votes behind, with a net 22 votes being knocked out for Kapterian and 23 for Boele. Much of today’s effort was seemingly spent on the 9589 votes of the Willoughby pre-poll centre, which disappointed for Boele in yielding only a net gain of one vote, despite the high Liberal vote there. Another part of today’s recounting was postals, which I presume wasn’t all of them given the modest scale of the changes, with two primary votes knocked out for both leading candidates. This unknown factor means it’s no longer possible to precisely calculate how much of the recount has been completed: ordinary votes amounting 41.1% have been accounted for, together with however many of the 12.3% of the total that were postals have been accounted for. The Liberal favourability deficit out of what’s been counted will also have narrowed, though not closed (remembering that the relative Liberal strength out of what’s been counted will likely be to their disadvantage, since it means more opportunities for their votes to be knocked out).
It seems clear now that the Goldstein recount will not pull any rabbits out of the hat for Zoe Daniel: Tim Wilson’s lead remains unchanged from yesterday at 263.
Wednesday
The Victorian Senate result was finalised today, producing the anticipated result of Labor three, Liberal two and Greens one: in order, Raff Ciccone (Labor), James Paterson (Liberal), Jess Walsh (Labor), Jane Hume (Liberal), Steph Hodgins-May (Greens) and Michelle Ananda-Rajah (Labor). Ananda-Rajah won at the final count with 0.869 quotas to the One Nation candidate’s 0.814, which was 0.032 quotas narrower than anticipated by my model based on preference flows from 2022. Something similar was observed in South Australia, where the final count likewise pitted One Nation against Labor’s successful third candidate, the final result being 0.046 quotas narrower than anticipated by my model.
This is encouraging for Tyron Whitten, One Nation’s candidate in Western Australia, where the count will be finalised tomorrow at 3pm eastern time. My earlier modelling of the result gave the third Labor candidate a narrow win over Whitten of 0.869 quotas to 0.852, but this was before Labor’s vote share fell back on late counting – re-running it with the final results, I get Whitten winning by 0.862 to 0.849. Half an hour later, the Queensland result will be finalised – here a result of two Labor, two Liberal National, one Greens and one One Nation looks assured.
Gisele Kapterian’s lead in Bradfield was slashed today from 14 to two, as proceedings went more as I expected them to go initially: votes for both candidates knocked out as informal, but the process favouring Nicolette Boele by virtue of the recount mostly affecting first preference votes for the two leading candidates, of which Kapterian has more to lose. On Monday and Tuesday, when as many previously informal votes were being deemed formal as vice-versa, Kapterian’s lead climbed from eight to 14 – today, Kapterian had a net loss of 29 votes compared with 17 for Boele.
The process has now resulted in the recounting of 30,357 votes out of 118,856, or 25.5%, encompassing 16 out of 52 election day booths and four out of 14 pre-poll voting centres. Non-ordinary vote types, including over 14,500 postals, are yet to be examined. Out of the votes examined so far, 33.5% were first preferences for Kapterian and 28.2% for Boele, compared with 38.1% and 27.0% out of the total count, with the two-candidate count being 53.9-46.1 in Boele’s favour compared with 50.0-50.0 overall. For reasons noted in yesterday’s update, this indicates the votes to be rechecked lean to Kapterian.
If today’s dynamic holds, with votes being knocked out as informal providing most of the changes, it seems very likely that Boele will soon pull ahead and stay there. However, I have no reason to be sure that we won’t see a re-emergence of the earlier dynamic of as many votes doing the reverse, in which case Kapterian may still be a show. Either way, the margin looks like being fine enough to raise the strong possibility of a legal challenge. Ben Raue of The Tally Room has done us all a fine service in attending the count as a scrutineer and recording his observations.
The partial recount in Goldstein began today, and got about 15% through without bringing any joy for Zoe Daniel, whose deficit against Tim Wilson is out from 260 to 263.
Finally, the AEC is now well into finalising two-party Labor-versus-Coalition counts for “non-classic” contests, which will ultimately allow for a national two-party preferred result. This will settle somewhere between 55-45 and 55.4-44.5, indicating that pollsters who were revising preference models based on the 2022 result to make them less favourable to Labor would have done better to have let them be. This under-estimation of Labor extends to the estimates I was using for non-classic contests to produce the national two-party preferred on my results page – I have revised these upwards, though probably not far enough.
Tuesday
End of day update: In the second day of the Bradfield recount, Gisele Kapterian again widened her lead over Nicolette Boele, which has gone from eight to ten to fourteen. Substantial revisions have been made in the Artarmon Central (17 informal votes reclassified as formal) and Gorton (14 votes going the other way) without appreciably advantaging one candidate or the other – the changes arise from another 13 booths that have been rechecked, five producing revisions in favour of Kapterian against one for Boele. Boele can take at least some comfort in the fact that these booths recorded a relatively narrow 29.6% to 27.6% advantage for Kapterian on the primary vote, compared with 38.1% to 27.0% overall, on the principle that opportunities await for challenges to the formality of Kapterian votes. So far though, it seems that as many informal votes are being deemed formal as the other way round, contrary to the experience of the preference distribution.
Earlier: The Senate distribution for Tasmania produced a result of two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and Jacqui Lambie, in the order of Carol Brown (Labor), Claire Chandler (Liberal), Nick McKim (Greens), Richard Dowling (Labor), Jacqui Lambie (Jacqui Lambie Network) and Richard Colbeck (Liberal). With four candidates chasing two seats at the second last exclusion, Lambie had 0.82 quotas, Colbeck 0.80, third Labor candidate Bailey Falls 0.73 and Lee Hanson 0.57. Hanson’s exclusion put both Lambie (1.05) and Colbeck (1.01) over the line for a full quota, leaving Falls holding the bag with 0.80. I should have had more faith in my model based on 2022 preference flows in last night’s update, as Lambie got more preferences this time from lower order and mostly right-wing candidates, outperforming my model’s projection of 1.00 quotas for her. Colbeck outperformed his projected 0.92, while Falls did weaker than the anticipated 0.87, again contrary to what I suggested might happen last night.
The distribution for the South Australian count was published today, showing that Labor’s third candidate, Charlotte Walker, recorded 1.00 quotas at the final count ahead of 0.80 for the One Nation candidate, against which my model’s projection of 1.00 to 0.75 stacks up quite well. Also finalised today was the Northern Territory Senate count, confirming the formality of Malarndirri McCarthy (Labor) and Jacinta Price (Country Liberal) winning the two seats. The button-press for the Victorian Senate count is scheduled for 9:30am tomorrow – the evidence so far offers no encouragement for One Nation that they will be able to close what my model projects as a deficit of 0.85 to 0.76 in the race for the final seat against the third Labor candidate. This will shortly be followed by the foregone conclusion of the Australian Capital Territory count.
The preference distribution has been finalised in Calwell, Labor’s Basem Abdo emerging a comfortable winner with 49,481 votes (55.1%) to independent Carly Moore’s 40,350 (44.9%).
Monday
Today’s developments:
• The preference distribution in Calwell has all but confirmed a win for Labor, who received more than two-thirds from the exclusion of Greens, putting Basem Abdo on 48.0%, independent Carly Moore on 29.7% and the Liberal candidate on 22.3%. This leaves Moore needing an all-but-impossible 91% share of the preferences with the imminent exclusion of the Liberal.
• The button was pressed on the South Australian election Senate count, confirming the anticipated result of Labor three (Marielle Smith, Karen Grogan and Charlotte Walker), Liberal two (Alex Antic and Anne Ruston) and Greens one (Sarah Hanson-Young). We must await publication of the preference distribution for further detail.
• The Australian Electoral Commission advises that we can expect the buttons to be pressed tomorrow morning for Tasmania and the Northern Territory. The latter is a foregone conclusion, but the former is likely to find a three-way battle for the last two seats between Jacqui Lambie, the third Labor candidate and the second Liberal candidate. My earlier modelling suggested Lambie was very likely to be re-elected, since substantially different preference flows from the last election would be needed for her to fall behind both Liberal and Labor. On reflection though, the former seems more plausible than I was allowing, given the observable impact of Lambie’s opposition to salmon farming on the geographic distribution of her primary vote, and the fact that most of the preferences being distributed are from right-wing parties. The latter might arise as a corollary of Labor’s stronger performance overall.
• The AEC announced today responded to Zoe Daniel’s request for a recount in Goldstein by announcing a partial recount that would consider first preference votes only, which in fact account for about three-quarters of the total. Substantial revisions were made to the totals during the course of the preference distribution, a process which examined only the remaining one-quarter of the vote, ultimately with the effect of increasing Tim Wilson’s margin from 129 to 270. The recount will begin on Wednesday and is expected to take about four days.
• The first day of the Bradfield recount, which may take as long as two weeks, increased Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian’s lead over independent Nicolette Boele from eight votes to ten.
Tasmania button push is going to be very interesting. Jacqui Lambie has been a fixture in Federal and Tassie politics so long now I bet most people forget how she got in originally; it would be an end of an era if she doesn’t make it. I hope against hope for Colbeck to be the one of the three who misses out when the music stops.
I am a bit surprised the AEC acquiesced on the Goldstein recount. Geez, if there’s any sizeable errors in there still undiscovered which favour Zoe Daniel it is going to be a shitshow. I’m torn between hoping Wilson somehow gets turfed and not really wanting there to be damage of that magnitude to the AEC’s credibility.
I should think it precisely that concern for credibility (and a proven pattern of data entry errors in the seat) that has led AEC to deem a partial recount of the Goldstein numbers warranted. I doubt anyone, even Daniel and her team, thinks the result will change at this point. The recount is nonetheless warranted to make sure the numbers are right.
On an unrelated note, did the preference distribution just flip the 2CP in Newcastle? I wonder how many more of those sub rosa shifts in the order of finish will occur this time. Blaxland and Maranoa, at least, are still awaiting a top two.
Hi William, I asked this question about 10 days ago, and the pattern I am referring to remains the same. Do you know why the Bludgertrack results portal shows a 2pp of 54.6 to 45.4 while the ABC portal shows 55 to 45 when al other numbers are almost identical? I don’t think this is a rounding difference becouse the ABC portal had decimal places in the 2pp multiple times since the election.
Even though this is inconsequential to the overall result, it would potentially put the 2pp outside the margin of error of some final polls if the ABC has the correct 2pp, while it would still be within the margin of error if the Bludgertrack 2pp is the right one.
Hoping Jacqui holds on, I obviously don’t agree with everything she stands for but she has lived experience of the welfare system which not many other politicians do
Much like having Charlotte Walker elected in South Australia and bringing a younger voice to the Senate
Diversity is a good thing
Hello Paul Thomas. I can’t see how the Greens would beat the Libs into 2nd in my electorate of Newcastle. The Greens are ahead by 3.1% on primaries, but right-wing minors make up 11.0% (ON, FF and TOP), while left-wing minors are just 2.3% (Socialist Alliance, and a far-left ratbag Independent). Surely on those numbers the Libs would overtake the Greens?
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60638
The gov returned, the opp comprehensively rejected, ~55 to 45 on 2.PP.
“Right now the vote share for winning independents will be slightly higher in 2025 …”
Though Wilson seems to be replacing Daniel in Goldstein.
I also wouldn’t expect the Greens to get into the Newcastle 2CP, but the AEC website definitely shows them in it. I will say that preference flows from One Nation to the Liberals in 2022 were *very* weak in Newcastle, only 52% with 26% going to the Greens and 21% Labor, so if that pattern repeated that may have something to do with it.
As I said on here weeks ago Lambie to the slaughter got on the wrong side of locals with salmon stance like that dipstick in Wannon who got on the wrong side of locals who do not want offshore windfarms and lost.
Popcorn anyone?
I guess you can get excited about an alleged misstep by an independent in Wannon when your team is 50 seats behind.
Wrong thread … again! 🙁
5 of the 6 senators elected in SA are women.
Bring in quotas for men
RE Greens coming second in Newcastle: there may be 11.0% sitting with the right-wing minors, but not all of it goes straight to the Liberals. If last election’s flow of 52% to Liberals, 26% to Greens, and 21% to Labor is repeated then the 3CP would be:
Labor 47.6% (+2.3% from right-wing minor preferences)
Greens 25.1% (+2.9%)
Liberals 24.8% (+5.7%)
And that’s not including distribution of Socialist Alliance and the unregistered Socialist Equality candidate Creech’s votes, which will favour Greens over Liberals. So it doesn’t surprise me that the Greens have held on to second place, 3.1% is quite a large lead when there was only a pool of 11.0% of favourable votes for the Libs to catch up with.
Lambie survives in Tassie
2 ALP
2 Liberal
1 Green
1 Lambie
Morsatunsays
If the ABC (or anyone) was using one decimal point before, they should use it even for whole numbers ie 55.0%. And now I check….and it’s indeed 55.0%. I have a memory of it being just 55% but that might be faulty.
So the question remains!
The difference in 0.4 % points doesn’t sound like much, but is consequential for our elections which crowd towards the middle. Labor have a landslide on 54.6-55.0% when that’s a bare pass at other times.
The AEC shows a national 2PP of 54.72 to Labor. However, the number of votes included in this count is lagging actual votes by around 3.5 million, so its a long way from finalization. It will bounce around as more seats are added – presumably including Calwell and Newcastle, where the final 2CP may not be known as yet, but where Labor will assuredly have a high 2PP against the Lib-Nats. William and the ABC have both provided estimates of 2PP but these are based on various assumptions and how accurate they remain at this late stage of counting I do not know. The real number to keep an eye on is the AEC’s number – it may be some weeks away until we know what the official National 2PP result was.
Good to hear Lambie managed to get re-elected. I do quite like her perspective on different issues. It will be interesting, given the projected Senate make-up how much influence she and Pocock have this term.
So according to the AEC’s Facebook page, Lambie was elected 5th and Colbeck 6th.
Does that mean Colbeck won against the 3rd Labor candidate?
The AEC have just published 2CP for Calwell. Abdo winning for the ALP 55.28%
@showsOn
Yes, I’d say so. I’d love to see the final quota numbers for the 6th seat.
Wouldn’t Colbeck have finished above Lambie, given the Libs had 1.65 of a quota and she only got 0.51?
Lambie looks to have been pushed over the line by AJP and LC preferences.
The right is so divided and splintered in this country; their disorganisation means a continual electoral failure into the foreseeable future.
Albo is a talented politician but has also been an extremely lucky one given his opposition.
He has been fortunate there has been no one on the Conservative side of politics with the charisma of a Trump or Farage (not necessarily embracing their policies but able to cut through).
[Wouldn’t Colbeck have finished above Lambie, given the Libs had 1.65 of a quota and she only got 0.51?]
Maybe it’s a mistake, but AEC Facebook post shows Lambie elected 5th and Colbeck 6th.
Not sure where this number for Calwell is coming from; I’m seeing only an incomplete count of about 60% of the ballots.
Re: Newcastle, I can only assume that AEC did not throw out the original 2CP and start conducting another one between Labor and the Greens for funsies.
Re: the Tasmanian Senate race, I find it rather unsatisfying that an 8% swing has resulted in exactly the same allocation of seats as last election (although admittedly, that was starting from a low baseline given Tas’s trend being way to the right of the country’s– even after this year’s result, it’s still trended right of the country as a whole since 2019). It’s legitimately weird that the left is going to win 4 senate seats in possibly as many as four different states and none of them are the one they had the highest quota in.
It will never happen for obvious reasons (why would Tasmania voluntarily give up a system where its voters are valued at ten times voters in NSW?), but state representation should really be abolished and the Senate just elected proportionally on national quotas. The Senate’s malapportionment is inexcusably unfair.
“Upnorthsays:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 11:27 am
The AEC have just published 2CP for Calwell. Abdo winning for the ALP 55.28%”
I think this is just the final throw….. currently at 54.87 but it’s hard to know without tracking the booths counted versus not counted
The Revisionist says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 12:00 pm
“Upnorthsays:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 11:27 am
The AEC have just published 2CP for Calwell. Abdo winning for the ALP 55.28%”
I think this is just the final throw….. currently at 54.87 but it’s hard to know without tracking the booths counted versus not counted
中华人民共和国
Two candidate preferred (TCP) for Calwell (VIC) 23 of 39 polling places returned and 64.78% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken. Candidate Party Votes Margin This election (%) Previous election (%) Swing (%) Status
MOORE, Carly Independent 26,179 -5,830 44.99 0.00 +44.99
ABDO, Basem Australian Labor Party 32,009 5,830 55.01 0.00 +55.01
23 Booths
Colbeck is second Lib in Tas – hence starting on c 0.65 quota. And Lambie 5 suggests the Bowe and Bonham preference movements are holding up. That could be good news in keeping One Nation out in NSW, Vic and WA.
The Good Dr Bonham
“Tuesday 27th 11:30 The final 2CP reassignment of preferences between Abdo and Moore is underway and will bounce around somewhat before being final based on booths being stronger or weaker for given candidates. Currently Abdo is ahead 55-45 with 56% reallocated.”
Re Calwell
With 2/3 of the votes counted, clearly a Labor win.
What Outsider said. I think there are 29 seats where the two-candidate preferred count doesn’t involve Labor-versus-Coalition, for which both and I and the ABC are using estimates (the ABC’s will undoubtedly have had more thought put into them than mine), whereas the AEC’s figure excludes those seats altogether. In due course, the AEC will publish “two-party preferred” numbers for these seats.
Interestingly Lambie was the fifth elected, Richard Colbeck of Liberals was sixth. That means she got over the line before he did. So the final countdown was likely between him and Hanson Jr.
Falls (ALP) was seventh in Tas, Hanson jnr finished eighth. And yes Lambie did overtake Colbeck from 2% behind on primaries which is consistent with 2022 preference flows.
On the subject of seats not showing up in the national two-party numbers, I noticed yesterday that AEC has begun doing Labor/Coalition two-party preference counts in some non-classic seats, although it’s clearly not (and shouldn’t be) a priority relative to finishing the counts that actually matter for purposes of getting seats declared.
A Hanson missing out makes it a good day.
[It’s legitimately weird that the left is going to win 4 senate seats in possibly as many as four different states and none of them are the one they had the highest quota in.]
Lambie is left wing on some issues. So I think the Tas result is Left 3.6 and Right 2.4.
@upnorth 65K out of 90K formal now allocated and it is still sitting around 55 to 45
Still subject to the nature of that last 25K but increasingly likely that that is around where it ends up. That would imply about a 31% flow of the Liberal exclusion to Labor which I must say is a decent amount above what I thought it would be
Perhaps it will pull back to 54 to 46 ultimately
Edit: and now out to 55.3% …..about 78% of all votes allocated, including about that of both booths and postals…..all election day absentees have been thrown and only 35% of the dec prepolls
Further to my earlier comment about 2PP and “bouncing around” – the AEC now has Labor on 54.84%.
ABC has Calwell as a Labor retain on their system now. But it was reported in the media this was a likely conclusion a couple of days ago from Labor scrutineer sources.
The TCP for Calwell on the AEC site is a work in progress, but it’s nearly done. The margin will be about 5.5%.
Bradfield grinds on. Another couple of booths updated, and Blue goes from 10 to 11 infront.
Shows On
“[It’s legitimately weird that the left is going to win 4 senate seats in possibly as many as four different states and none of them are the one they had the highest quota in.]
Lambie is left wing on some issues. So I think the Tas result is Left 3.6 and Right 2.4.”
—————————————————–
I agree. Any Senate result where Lambie finishes ahead of both PHON and the 2nd and 3rd Liberal is a good result for progressive politics. The other states even more so.
PHON mostly missing out and Clive Palmer entirely missing out is great for the long term too. The RW crazies are disappearing and there will not be much left after Hanson retires.
This election has been weird in a good way in several respects. Often when Labor does well on election night the result comes back in the following days as late counting often favours the LNP. Not so this time. The result on the night was great for Labor. Late counting since has confirmed that. Some seats have firmed for Labor in late counting. This suggests that the count on the night was not a fluke. The LNP was struggling for support through most of the polling period, and has not gained since.
Abdo has passed 50% of the total formal votes in Calwell. 3 booths left.
Calwell now at 54.95 with 94% thrown
roughly 2/3rds ordinaries and 1/3rd postals left
presumably will land plus or minus (more likely minus) 0.5 from here
”
Robert Lynchsays:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 9:46 am
5 of the 6 senators elected in SA are women.
Bring in quotas for men
”
All 3 ALP Senators are women. And the SA male Senator from Liberal party is RWNJ, much worse than Sukkar. The state that gave Liberal Senators such as Robert Hill, Birmingham et tl, is now giving RW reactionaries to the nation. Antic is so bad that Sukkar looks like moderate.
Like Wilson and Frydenburg look moderate when compared to Sukkar. But we know that Wilson and Frydenburg are RW reactionaries
Some say Dutton, Antic and Rennick are on the same plane when it comes to RW reactionaries.
”
Nickosays:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 10:45 am
Morsatunsays
If the ABC (or anyone) was using one decimal point before, they should use it even for whole numbers ie 55.0%. And now I check….and it’s indeed 55.0%. I have a memory of it being just 55% but that might be faulty.
So the question remains!
The difference in 0.4 % points doesn’t sound like much, but is consequential for our elections which crowd towards the middle. Labor have a landslide on 54.6-55.0% when that’s a bare pass at other times.
”
As per AEC, the 2PP is 54.82/45.18 in ALP favour.
Bradfield: Way, way to early to call it a trend, but … the booths that have been updated represent about 7% of the total vote, and Blue has gained 3 votes. If that continues (not saying it will and some booths may have had no change so don’t appear as updated), Blue could end up leading by up to 50 at this rate.
Edit… and just like that another update comes in:
– 9% checked
– Blue ahead by 10 (lost one)
– If trend continues : Blue wins by 31 Votes
AEC’s “2PP” number is not (not not not) a projection. It’s simply a running count of the actual votes that have been recorded for one party or the other. A model is needed to forecast where it is going to end up.
Quite a big revision just made to Artarmon Central – 17 formerly informal votes deemed formal, net gain to Boele of 1.
Regarding the apparent trend to Liberal, if two votes can be called that. All the changes so far have been to election day results, which were weak for Kapterian, and because they’re being done sort-of-alphabetically we’re a while away from hitting her mother lode of St Ives. Out of the booths that have had their results changed so far, Kapterian had 30.0% of the primary vote to Boele’s 29.4%.
All booths in 2CP Calwell. Labor 55.08. 94 seats.
Thanks WB – I’m sure St Ives PVCC has one last hurrah!
Did you mean
– “17 formerly informal votes deemed FORMAL, net gain to Boele of 1.” or
– “17 formerly FORMAL votes deemed informal, net gain to Boele of 1.”
EDIT – WB updated the post. “17 formerly informal votes deemed FORMAL, net gain to Boele of 1.”
Victorian Senate button-press at 9:30am tomorrow, ACT to follow not long after, others TBC.
Labor’s national 2PP surging today- now up to 54.93%.