Half measures (open thread)

A look at the dramatically declining frequency of seats being won with with majorities on first preferences.

A correspondent wrote today to inquire about the decline in seats being won on first preferences, and having gone to the trouble of amassing the relevant data going back to 1993, I thought it worth a chart and a blog post. If it had gone back as far as 1975, we would have found 103 out of 127 seats “going to preferences”, which then served as shorthand to denote a close result, around half of them “three-cornered contests”, which persists as a term to describe seats contested by both the Nationals and the Liberals.

Within the period covered by the chart, we find an interruption in 1998 and 2001 from the first age of One Nation, notably hitting the Coalition a lot harder than Labor; then an apparent resumption of normal service followed by a steady decline through to 2022, by which time Labor’s decade-long reliance on Greens preferences in nearly all of its seats is supplemented by teal independents and a proliferation of predators upon Coalition vote share on the right, including but not exclusive to the return of One Nation.

The eleven seats won on first preferences at this month’s election were, for Labor, Chifley, Kingston, Grayndler, Greenway, Fenner, Sydney, Kingsford Smith and Oxley; for the Nationals, Maranoa, Gippsland and New England; and for the Liberals, bupkis. Interestingly, there are two among the Labor list that haven’t historically been reckoned safe seats: Greenway, which Michelle Rowland has held for Labor since a redistribution-assisted win from the Liberals in 2010, consolidating with consecutive swings of 8.7% in 2022 and 4.7% a fortnight ago; and Kingston, which Amanda Rishworth has turned into a safe seat since gaining it from the Liberals in 2007, despite redistributions in aggregate having done her more harm than good.

Please note the other posts since the last open thread:

• A guest post from Adrian Beaumont on elections in Romania, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Albania, Canada and South Korea.

• A post on Tasmania covering a new state poll and elections this weekend for three seats in the state’s Legislative Council.

• A progressively updated thread on late counting, mainly relevant now to Calwell and Bradfield.

• An analysis of the Senate result, which remains about a fortnight away from resolution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Half measures (open thread)”

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  1. Luigi – That is what happen when you only sample Sky after dark viewers.

    Rossmcg – Absolutely. Bronwyn was a darling of the base, especially the over 65s.

  5. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 7:43 pm
    We definitely should not trade at all with China, given its human rights behaviour.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    But why stop at China.
    Why not stop trade with Russia.
    Why not stop trade with all communists countries.
    If we were to stop trade with every nation that has bad human rights behaviour we could
    be left with very few trading partners.
    And I’m sure many countries might not like some of our human rights behaviour.

  6. Re B.S. Fairman @8:39.

    ” Will Jacinta Price go far?

    She reminds me of Bronwyn Bishop. She was a senator who was a media darling in the mid 90s. In about 1994, Bronwyn Bishop was going to be the saviour of the Liberal party…”

    I’d forgotten about Bronwyn Bishop. That’s actually quite a good analogy in my opinion. Ms Bishop was the darling of talkback radio in the early 90s, great at the sort of performative outrage the political Right love. Was she the Thatcher figure to lead the Liberals out of over a decade in the wilderness?

    But there was nothing much behind it. Her image and ambition greatly exceeded her talent. She got near the leadership, she was an indiferent Minister and went on to become the worst Speaker ever.

  7. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:

    Did Murray Watt just have the best ever election night, or did Murray Watt just have the best ever election night?
    _______________
    Several things about the SKY broadcast.

    Laura Jayes is so fine. What is she doing on that thing. I hope the coin is terrific.

    Credlin was pretty stoic all night. Didn’t flinch once.

    Andrew Clenell and Chris Uhlmann were very good.

    The rest of the clown show, Bolt, Murray and the other Liberal panelists were pretty embarrassing.

    Watt did have a good time. Mostly just sat there are grinned and good luck to him.

    There was one moment when he argued with Credlin and I was certain she was gonna bitch slap him. He wisely backed down.

  8. The liberals may as well bring back the two Bishops, Julie and Bronwyn, who would do a better job than Jacinta will ever do.
    Surely Bronwyn could be helicoptered into a safe seat.
    And Julie could ask for her Red Shoes to be returned to her from the museum.

  12. Nath has waited till his parents finally went to bed to fire up the old ADSL 2 modem it seems.

    Hello Nath

  15. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2698 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 8:59 pm

    Oh dear, some national party voting native title extinguishing cockies face getting their caught in the till, after their Baldric-eque ‘cunning plan’ to avoid tax by putting the family farm into a SMSF and then leasing it to their son now looks like it may end up attracting a tax liability after all: the horror. No doubt Piped Pooper and Integrity will fulminate over this. Boo. hoo.

    … and of course, just for lols, Princess Ipicac’s new heroine du jour, Bambi Waters can’t work out whether to ‘demand’ that Labor either drop the threshold from $3million to $2 million … OR … wave through the $3 million threshold BUT also ‘demand’ that Labor then index that threshold.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/farmers-fear-big-tax-bills-could-force-them-to-sell-off-their-land-20250526-p5m2d0.html

    This demonstrates the real advantages of a strong centrist Labor Party in government: all the oxygen thieves and rent seekers tend to get flushed out and exposed.

    Now that the Nationals have learned about this from the Sydney Morning Herald, they are going to act very cross.

  16. Doing a great job with DOGE some leftie nutjobs will be ignored as usual.

    Worlds richest man!

    $386 Billion he’s worth so SA peasants take the crumbs he gives you!

    We need DOGE here but labor has planned for 10 years of deficits.

  19. “after their Baldric-eque ‘cunning plan’ to avoid tax by putting the family farm into a SMSF and then leasing it to their son now looks like it may end up attracting a tax liability after all: the horror.”

    Which seems to be pretty much the whole basis of the “arguments” against the ALP’s proposal.

    I think the Greens should just pass this one. Interesting Spender seems to be showing her true colors in opposing it.

    “PP your trolling makes no sense?”

    They never have and i still reckon its a badly programed bot, not a person at all.

  21. imaccasays:
    Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 10:09 pm

    Interesting Spender seems to be showing her true colors in opposing it

    _____________________________

    The Teals have vocally opposed this for 12 months now. One of the main reasons it didn’t pass earlier was because D.Pocock opposed it to.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/bracket-creep-for-super-teals-brand-labor-s-3m-policy-a-cash-grab-20240326-p5ffaz

    “Minority government” would have killed the proposal off.

  22. The Albonatorsays:
    Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 9:49 pm
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/27/anti-musk-sentiment-runs-high-in-australian-city-as-95-of-submissions-oppose-land-sale-to-tesla

    We’d rather keep our contaminated poisoned land just the way it is, thankyou very much. No Maga here

    ________________________________

    No, I’m actually going to (one-quarter) agree with pp – Musk the man is temporary, but the capital investment in green technology is long term. Besides, he is on the way out with the White House.

    If we are going to create value adding industries that are not mining, local battery manufacturing is ideal.

  25. ”
    Socratessays:
    Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 8:35 pm
    Cat 8:01pm

    Also agreed. It isn’t just a question of respect either. The roles of effective representative MP, effective political leader, and effective political campaigner each need particular skills. You can be a competent and respectable person and not be good at one or any of those roles. One needs listening and compassion, the second needs judgement and emotional strength, and the third needs to be a persuasive speaker.

    Not everyone is cut out to be leader in any field, least of all politics. One of the problems in politics is that there tend to be big egos, so many politicians imagine they could be a leader, when in reality they won’t be able to do the job. I think Latham, Abbott and Dutton are all examples.
    ”

    Socrates: Also agreed. It isn’t just a question of respect either. The roles of effective representative MP, effective political leader, and effective political campaigner each need particular skills. You can be a competent and respectable person and not be good at one or any of those roles. One needs listening and compassion, the second needs judgement and emotional strength, and the third needs to be a persuasive speaker.

    Me: {Modi has all the above skills listed by you}

    Socrates: Not everyone is cut out to be leader in any field, least of all politics. One of the problems in politics is that there tend to be big egos, so many politicians imagine they could be a leader, when in reality they won’t be able to do the job. I think Latham, Abbott and Dutton are all examples.

    Me: {Rahul Gandhi}

    The leader Albanese met in international/ national setting most: Modi.

  27. I think I’ll need a very powerful microscope indeed to find a violin small enough to play a tune that fully expresses the extent of my sadness at the plight of people using super as a tax shelter who will be caught who out by the winding back (not abolition) of part of their tax benefits.

    Only 30%? Why not bump it up to the top marginal income tax rate? People with $3 million in super don’t need concessions or subsidies.

  28. I don’t think ive ever seen someone as moronic as Elon Musk.
    Ive never seen someone build a company up and then literally take a blow torch to it later on, all because he was too stupid to let social media rot his brain like all these MAGA freaks.

  29. B.K. at 8.07 pm, Boerwar at 8.20 pm and B.S. Fairman at 8.39 pm and Steve777 at 9.15 pm

    Indeed B.S.F., Senator Price has the politically dysfunctional antenna that Bronnie possessed without realising it.

    There’s one difference. Senator Price will not be lampooned by the SMH cartoonist Moir as ubiquitously trivial.

    Bronnie was a thug in a skirt from the start. Much more brawn than brains.

    On one occasion she was upset when the young Lib thugs she had brought along to Mrs Macquarie’s chair to disrupt a peace protest were asked by the police to take the threatening posts resembling 4 by 2s they had brought with them back home.

    Bronnie couldn’t understand why the police did not like the look of her thugs.

    Senator Price will never be a minister’s bootlace unless she lowers her sights to the NT government, but that would be a harder job than the Libs’ senator for life she currently has.

    If Michael Leunig was still alive he might say Senator Price is not worth a duck’s paddle. She is as useless as an errant car alarm during a serious event.

  30. 6 Coalition seats (is there a coalition yet?) in total once u head west from Broken Hill…..two thirds of continental Australia including the cities of Perth, Adelaide, Darwin, Alice Springs ….the scourge of Libs almost entirely erradicated. Ind and Labor gunning for Grey and Forrest next

  32. I for one am shocked that the National Farmers Federation (or should that be, The Nationals Farmers Federation) want farmers to pay less Tax.

    I’ve yet to hear word if the Government will listen to my “Give Me A Billion Dollars Federation”.

  33. ”
    Nicksays:
    Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 10:49 pm
    I don’t think ive ever seen someone as moronic as Elon Musk.
    Ive never seen someone build a company up and then literally take a blow torch to it later on, all because he was too stupid to let social media rot his brain like all these MAGA freaks.
    ”

    Used Cybertrucks plunge in value as Musk’s nightmare year gets worse

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/5/26/2323988/-Used-Cybertrucks-plunge-in-value-as-Musk-s-nightmare-year-gets-worse?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web

    “Electrek reported on Sunday that Tesla is offering Cybertruck owners $65,400 for their model year 2024 vehicles—down from the $100,000 those trucks were originally sold for. That is a decline of 34.6% in a year. By comparison, Electrek noted that traditional pickup trucks usually drop 20% in value in a year and only hit the mark offered by Tesla after 3-4 years.

    Musk touted the odd-looking Cybertruck as a technological marvel and received enormous media coverage when the truck was first announced and as it rolled out. Initially, Tesla said that 1 million advance reservations had been made for Cybertrucks—but ultimately only 40,000 of those converted to sales.”

  34. Till now we only talked about sanctions by UK, France and Germany.

    Calling Gaza a gaping wound on humanity, Spain calls for arms embargo on Israel.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/5/26/2324385/-Calling-Gaza-a-gaping-wound-on-humanity-Spain-calls-for-arms-embargo-on-Israel?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “In his article on May 26, Gaza “a Gaping Wound on Humanity”: Spain Convenes Int’l Conference to call for Arms Embargo on Israel, Professor Juan Cole of the University of Michigan writes:

    delegations from 20 countries met Sunday in Madrid in a push to pressure Israel to halt its total war on Gaza and to establish a Palestinian state. Convened by Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares, the conference sought to move to concrete actions.

    Cole says “Israel began letting a small amount of aid in last week,” but it has been described by UN officials as “a drop in the ocean compared to the urgent needs of 2.2 million Palestinians.”

    Albares, Madrid’s foreign minister, said at the Sunday conference:

    The sole interest that all of us gathered here today have is to stop this unjust, cruel, and inhumane Israeli war in Gaza, break the blockade of humanitarian aid, and move definitively toward a two-state solution.”

  36. ”
    pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 11:32 pm
    365 billion Musk worth the morons are the leftie nutjobs on here!
    ”

    PP
    Go back to US because a lot US, mostly white people, citizens are leaving USA and heading UK and Canada. People like you needed in US to bolster Trump and Musk. Go and buy Telsa cybertrucks. 🙂

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/5/26/2323988/-Used-Cybertrucks-plunge-in-value-as-Musk-s-nightmare-year-gets-worse?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web

  37. So all the blacks,hispanics and all the others are staying because they love Trump and Musk!
    People fleeing are USA hating democrats like word salad Harris.

    Total and utter trash that candidate was up there with “ deplorables “ Hillary.

    Trump had nothing to beat!

  38. The Nationals and Liberals, nonchalantly denying an election, an election result and their 1980’s nuclear policy.
    The Nationals even believe the Liberals, not the Nationals had an election in which the Liberals were thumped.
    May both the Liberals and the Nationals oppose the fourth Industrial Revolution for another decade, deny the advantages from technology in regard to the 2025 workplace, deny the obvious technology advances being enjoyed by farming and mining and continue to support discrimination in a plethora of mediums.
    But not to worry, the Nationals and Liberals, are “to hold the government to account”.

    The Rosehill Gardens saga/dilemma frames the Liberals and Nationals, represented by the SRC “members” decision so close to the election catastrophe, with highlighted accuracy.

  39. How bad does a war crime need to be for a retired war-criminal to write an op-ed calling it a war crime?

    But the real question is, where is this clown’s op-ed about the situation in Sudan? Nowhere to be seen!

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