A correspondent wrote today to inquire about the decline in seats being won on first preferences, and having gone to the trouble of amassing the relevant data going back to 1993, I thought it worth a chart and a blog post. If it had gone back as far as 1975, we would have found 103 out of 127 seats “going to preferences”, which then served as shorthand to denote a close result, around half of them “three-cornered contests”, which persists as a term to describe seats contested by both the Nationals and the Liberals.
Within the period covered by the chart, we find an interruption in 1998 and 2001 from the first age of One Nation, notably hitting the Coalition a lot harder than Labor; then an apparent resumption of normal service followed by a steady decline through to 2022, by which time Labor’s decade-long reliance on Greens preferences in nearly all of its seats is supplemented by teal independents and a proliferation of predators upon Coalition vote share on the right, including but not exclusive to the return of One Nation.
The eleven seats won on first preferences at this month’s election were, for Labor, Chifley, Kingston, Grayndler, Greenway, Fenner, Sydney, Kingsford Smith and Oxley; for the Nationals, Maranoa, Gippsland and New England; and for the Liberals, bupkis. Interestingly, there are two among the Labor list that haven’t historically been reckoned safe seats: Greenway, which Michelle Rowland has held for Labor since a redistribution-assisted win from the Liberals in 2010, consolidating with consecutive swings of 8.7% in 2022 and 4.7% a fortnight ago; and Kingston, which Amanda Rishworth has turned into a safe seat since gaining it from the Liberals in 2007, despite redistributions in aggregate having done her more harm than good.
Please note the other posts since the last open thread:
• A guest post from Adrian Beaumont on elections in Romania, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Albania, Canada and South Korea.
• A post on Tasmania covering a new state poll and elections this weekend for three seats in the state’s Legislative Council.
• A progressively updated thread on late counting, mainly relevant now to Calwell and Bradfield.
• An analysis of the Senate result, which remains about a fortnight away from resolution.
Mavis @ #2643 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 7:19 pm
Thanks Mavis
Philippa’s work is very interesting but not yet a definitive answer
I have her book this is based on
Labor urged to put human rights record before trade as Chinese premier visits Canberra
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/17/labor-urged-to-put-chinas-human-rights-record-before-trade-and-demand-concrete-action
“Human rights advocates have called on Anthony Albanese to place China’s human rights record ahead of economic and trade discussions in his meeting with China’s second most powerful leader on Monday.
They said it was time for Australia’s Labor government to demand concrete action from China in addressing human rights complaints against it as “statements of concern” were not achieving results.”
Right. Exactly dude. You’ve proven your point. No need to rub it in.
My dear, now departed Mum was a member, back in Sydney Turf Club (STC) days. It was her one, single vice. She only ever bet the minimum the bookie would let her bet. But she had lots of friends there. Bob Hawke was one. Her name was “Kate”, but everybody called her “Kit”, or “Kitty”.
“Who’s gonna win today Kitty?” Hawkie would ask her.
“Oh, Mr Hawke, I don’t know,” she’d reply. She was Labor through-and-through, but very respectful towards what she saw as “authority”. I guess “Robert JL Hawke, Prime Minister” was as “authority” as you could be in the Members Stand at Rosehill Racecourse, on any given Saturday.
“Call me ‘Bob’, Kitty will ya? And I still want to know who’s a winner today?”
At which point she would offer the name of a nag that she thought might be a chance in the 5th… or the 6th.
All of this was relayed to me by my astonished brother-in-law, himself a stalwart Labor man, and a University of Technology grandee, elected to office in City of Sydney local government politics, pre Clover Moore days, but in this a mere spectator, signed-in as a guest of my little Mum, the diminutive Kitty. Bob Hawke knew how to win hearts. And I think my mother knew how to do it too.
All of which goes to show, you don’t have to be a toff to be a member at Rosehill Racecourse. Mum cer5ainly wadn’t. That Mark Latham is a member is neither here nor there. If Kitty could occupy the members’ benches, mix with PMs, and even share tips with them, then let’s not judge Latham. Many of us would have voted for him once upon a time, I’d warrant. I know I did.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 7:28 pm
….’
==================
Excellent. I expect you to do at least a daily rotation of the Greens call for sanctions on China.
We definitely should not trade at all with China, given its human rights behaviour.
Apologies if already posted but can someone give me an objective assessment of Friendly Jordies’ claims here about right to disconnect legislation.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/19MrAM9r2o/
laughtong
I agree with this. I once posted this, and was told (by AR I think) that this was in fact the USA, not the Australian situation, because we do not have specific guidelines in Oz.
I had been told at my various places of work by academic and scientific librarians over a number of decades (where n ≤ 3) that the 10% rule applies to a book, and also to any any single chapter of that book. and of course the 10% rule also applies to journal and other articles.
We once had an “honesty” book near our photocopier (one of those funny foolscap public service bound, lined books, some of which seemed to be for double entry bookkeeping) where we were supposed to record every photocopy job, what it was we photocopied, and whether what we copied was subject to copyright. We were also asked for the percentage of the work we had photocopied. It was part of some audit, and may have been used to pay authors for the use of their copyrighted works?
Whoops, forgot to add the best academic reference regarding plagiarism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQHaGhC7C2E
Whilst a lot has been made about the polling of the major parties, one thing that has generally gone uncommented on is that One Nation was polling between 8% to 10% in most pollsters but ended up at 6.3%. This is because when it came to vote there were more options on the ballot for the those on the far right. But it could also reflect a weighting on the referendum result that should not have been made.
And speaking of the great man himself, here’s a classic interview of Bob Hawke by Roy and HG (the things the algorithm throws up at you, hey?):
https://youtu.be/R39plBXdRMg?si=EnHsa7XZLgSZU8dH
BW
You would know all about doing a daily rotation of (insert topic). You are the master who inspires me to emulate such tactics.
Though I have to say, I am a tad surprised you have not brought up the Sudan today, or perhaps I have missed your posts on such.
Or, if you want to mix it up a bit, consult:
Genocide Watch – https://www.genocidewatch.com/countries-at-risk
D&M
I think it probably was for a copyright payment scheme ages ago.
Different rules may have applied if you were copying for a classroom resource
Not my special area and the memory is getting hazy beyond the basics
laughtong
Yes, I am pretty sure that was it. And I think we were asked if it was for teaching purposes.
Bystander @ #2640 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 7:14 pm
There are other First Nations Women politicians that deserve our respect too.. Though, on the other hand, I don’t think that any First Nations MP should automatically be given our respect just because they are First Nations. They must earn it like everybody else.
Isn’t everything AI throws up for us to copy breaking copyright?
“Do I understand correctly that the Libs want to parachute Jacinta Price into some random seat or other?”
Seriously?? They have gone for major unhingiment then. In what universe does anyone with influence consider this to be a good political move?? Well … maybe the Skysnooze parallel reality franchise??
The particular issue being discussed in relation to Price was whether she had been ‘bought’ and paid for.
Have the Greens issued a public apology for their hypocritical treatment of Abdo?
Can anyone honestly see Jacinta Price going very far?
Australia needs to improve ite own adherence to human rights before taking on the world.
Perhaps that was the case then. But I doubt it’s the case now.
https://www.australianturfclub.com.au/membership-services/
BK @ #2670 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 8:07 pm
I wish her every success in the Liberal party.
Labor government sells out human rights to China Albanese a weak man.
I don’t think politicians deserve our respect. They’re in power. Power should always be challenged, as should their views. They don’t need our protection. Their power and the generous wealth they earn from it is their armour.
This includes Albanese and people’s ALP faves btw.
*Note: This doesn’t apply to sexist, racist, homophobic or other bigoted attacks against politicians as those attacks hurt people far beyond just the intended target.
B.S. Fairman at 7.52 pm
I did question the gullibility of some who thought Hanson at 10% in a few (perhaps only two) polls meant more than idle, misguided speculation.
The obvious reference point, using Scott’s sound methodology, was to look at the QLD state election results. Hanson got about 8% from memory.
It was obvious from that comparison that the national vote for Hanson would be well below 8%.
Yes it was 8% for Hanson in QLD 2024 which was an increase of nearly 1%.
Behold Princess Ipicac’s new BBF – the Piped Pooper.
All together now: Labor Baaaaaad!
Correct Dr. Doolittle:
Liberal National Party (93) 1,289,535 41.52 +5.63 52 +18
Australian Labor Party (93) 1,011,211 32.56 -7.01 36 -16
The Greens (93) 307,178 9.89 +0.42 1 -1
One Nation (93) 248,334 8.00 +0.87 .. -1
Katter’s Australian Party 75,773 2.44
BK @ #2669 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 7:37 pm
I dunno. The Liberal Party just suffered a very embarrassing loss and they’re now in a rut and risk wandering the wilderness for a while. It’s natural in periods like this to start talking about radical moves like trying to parachute a saviour into the House to pull them out of their mire. Whether these things happen or not is always in the air but right now they’re probably going to seem a bit aimless, until the Government give them something substantial to target.
The fiscal impact of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which one prominent budget hawk called a “debt bomb,” is becoming a significant political concern among Republican lawmakers who have made little progress toward offsetting the $3 trillion projected cost of the legislation.
Some GOP senators fear that the bill’s failure to rein in federal spending in a substantial way over the next decade is fueling jitters in the bond market, where soft demand for U.S. debt has caused yields to climb in recent weeks.
And they worry that if Republicans pass Trump’s bill on party-line votes in both chambers, they will get blamed for heaping trillions of dollars onto the debt and the economic consequences that may follow in the future.
“I think we’re having trouble selling our long bonds already,” warned Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who cited the rising interest rates.
Scott is one of at least four Senate Republican conservatives who are sounding the alarm over the long-term fiscal implications of the 1,116-page budget reconciliation bill that passed the House.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5316940-trump-bill-fiscal-concerns-republicans/
‘BK says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 8:07 pm
Can anyone honestly see Jacinta Price going very far?’
=================
Next week she will be a shadow spokesperson…
…probably a minister in six year’s time.
Hh
It reminds me of The Loaded Dog.
Wat Tyler @ #2675 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 8:12 pm
Agreed. And on that front I am glad that Lambie got back into the Senate and Hanson’s daughter did not.
IMO it would be better if personal respect was the default position.
Our society would work way better.
Anybody who has earned disrespect deserves to be disrespected.
Is the One Big Beautiful Bill the longest national suicide note in history?
Cat 8:01pm
Also agreed. It isn’t just a question of respect either. The roles of effective representative MP, effective political leader, and effective political campaigner each need particular skills. You can be a competent and respectable person and not be good at one or any of those roles. One needs listening and compassion, the second needs judgement and emotional strength, and the third needs to be a persuasive speaker.
Not everyone is cut out to be leader in any field, least of all politics. One of the problems in politics is that there tend to be big egos, so many politicians imagine they could be a leader, when in reality they won’t be able to do the job. I think Latham, Abbott and Dutton are all examples.
I think what Wat was saying is that politicians don’t deserve respect simply because they are politicians. There are innumerable politicians I have zero respect for because they are racist, sexist and misogynist creeps. I don’t believe respect should be the default setting for these people.
BK re JP = No….But politics is a strange business.
Will Jacinta Price go far?
She reminds me of Bronwyn Bishop. She was a senator who was a media darling in the mid 90s. In about 1994, Bronwyn Bishop was going to be the saviour of the Liberal party when she moved from the Senate to the House and there was a expectation that she would challenge John Hewson straight away. But nothing came of it, in part because big sections of the party were wary of her. Instead they went with Downer until he joked about domestic violence (“the things that batter”), then had to turn back to Howard. After that she was always there, too powerful to be booted to the backbench but never going to lead.
So I can’t see Price leading the Liberals but I can see her being a pain in the arse of those who are leading.
BK
Many of us here were holding our breath in relation to Labor scraping up a working majority or having to pander to the odds and sods as was the case in Julie Gillard’s time just a few short weeks ago.
We now see a Labor government with a enough “fat” on it to suggest, all other things being equal, there is no reason why a third consecutive term is not on the cards.
If the LNP could do it with Menzies of what seemed an eternity and Howard also a long run, why not Labor?
While the LNP shambles will not last for ever, at this point I don’t see M/s Ley as the person to get them over the line three years hence…..But then…..politics is a strange game……
“So I can’t see Price leading the Liberals but I can see her being a pain in the arse of those who are leading.”
agreed. Breaks my heart it does. 🙂
B S Fairman
Despite their diminished numbers there will be no shortage of men from the eastern states who fancy themselves as Liberal leader.
The idea that anyone from the NT, an indigenous woman to boot, would be a contender is a laugh.
If they couldn’t stomach Julie Bishop ….
Price might be “popular with the base” but the base is much smaller than it used to be.
When will the may (summer) of Leftie Brawler ever end?
Emphatic, history making Labor win
The mighty North Sydney Bears officially back in business
And this week the member for Kiama in the downing centre court sans the pink eye pillow syndrome and this time fully dressed.
Let the good times roll!!!!
Special thanks to boss man Premier Roger Cook and the great member for Burns Beach Mark Folkard! What a man he is! A great bloke!
Socrates @ #2685 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 8:35 pm
And that’s why I’d be no good, Soc. Too intolerant. Too opinionated. Although I’m slowly getting better at compromising. 😀
As a biased one-eyed lefty I say this – please put Jacinta Price front and centre. She is kryptonite to the chances of liberals in the city seats, and my friends, that is where the people live.
As a biased one-eyed lefty I say this – please put Jacinta Price front and centre. She is kryptonite to the chances of liberals in the city seats, and my friends, that is where the people live.
sky news meltdown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6qvNRj8YVQ
Gareth Evans
The time is right’: Labor luminary calls for Netanyahu sanctions, Palestine statehood
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-time-is-right-labor-luminary-calls-for-netanyahu-sanctions-palestine-statehood-20250527-p5m2gu.html
“Imposing financial sanctions, travel bans and the like on the most egregious Israeli promoters and perpetrators of violations of Palestinian human rights – adding government ministers like [Finance Minister] Bezalel Smotrich and [National Security Minister] Itamar Ben-Gvir, not to mention Netanyahu himself, to the list of those violent individual West Bank settlers already sanctioned by the Albanese government in July last year – would certainly send a powerful message in response to the ongoing, and now further escalating horror in Gaza,” Evans told this masthead.”
Oh dear, some national party voting native title extinguishing cockies face getting their caught in the till, after their Baldric-eque ‘cunning plan’ to avoid tax by putting the family farm into a SMSF and then leasing it to their son now looks like it may end up attracting a tax liability after all: the horror. No doubt Piped Pooper and Integrity will fulminate over this. Boo. hoo.
… and of course, just for lols, Princess Ipicac’s new heroine du jour, Bambi Waters can’t work out whether to ‘demand’ that Labor either drop the threshold from $3million to $2 million … OR … wave through the $3 million threshold BUT also ‘demand’ that Labor then index that threshold.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/farmers-fear-big-tax-bills-could-force-them-to-sell-off-their-land-20250526-p5m2d0.html
This demonstrates the real advantages of a strong centrist Labor Party in government: all the oxygen thieves and rent seekers tend to get flushed out and exposed.
The LNP has polling that says Jacinta is a winner.
Ukraine is no longer restricted from carrying out “long-range” strikes against Russia with weapons supplied by its Western allies, German chancellor Friedrich Merz has said. “Until a while ago, it couldn’t. It can now,” Mr Merz said. “We call this ‘long-range fire’ in jargon, also supplying Ukraine with weapons that attack military targets in the hinterland,” he added.
It comes after Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin “absolutely crazy” for a record-breaking drone attack on its smaller neighbour, and the Kremlin said the US president was being “emotional”. Mr Trump issued some of his sharpest criticism of Mr Putin after Russia fired 355 drones and nine missiles at Ukraine — the largest aerial attack of the more than three year war.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-germany-weapons-missiles-latest-news-b2758187.html