A correspondent wrote today to inquire about the decline in seats being won on first preferences, and having gone to the trouble of amassing the relevant data going back to 1993, I thought it worth a chart and a blog post. If it had gone back as far as 1975, we would have found 103 out of 127 seats “going to preferences”, which then served as shorthand to denote a close result, around half of them “three-cornered contests”, which persists as a term to describe seats contested by both the Nationals and the Liberals.
Within the period covered by the chart, we find an interruption in 1998 and 2001 from the first age of One Nation, notably hitting the Coalition a lot harder than Labor; then an apparent resumption of normal service followed by a steady decline through to 2022, by which time Labor’s decade-long reliance on Greens preferences in nearly all of its seats is supplemented by teal independents and a proliferation of predators upon Coalition vote share on the right, including but not exclusive to the return of One Nation.
The eleven seats won on first preferences at this month’s election were, for Labor, Chifley, Kingston, Grayndler, Greenway, Fenner, Sydney, Kingsford Smith and Oxley; for the Nationals, Maranoa, Gippsland and New England; and for the Liberals, bupkis. Interestingly, there are two among the Labor list that haven’t historically been reckoned safe seats: Greenway, which Michelle Rowland has held for Labor since a redistribution-assisted win from the Liberals in 2010, consolidating with consecutive swings of 8.7% in 2022 and 4.7% a fortnight ago; and Kingston, which Amanda Rishworth has turned into a safe seat since gaining it from the Liberals in 2007, despite redistributions in aggregate having done her more harm than good.
Please note the other posts since the last open thread:
• A guest post from Adrian Beaumont on elections in Romania, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Albania, Canada and South Korea.
• A post on Tasmania covering a new state poll and elections this weekend for three seats in the state’s Legislative Council.
• A progressively updated thread on late counting, mainly relevant now to Calwell and Bradfield.
• An analysis of the Senate result, which remains about a fortnight away from resolution.
Pegasus, Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 5:57 pm:
I’m with you on this one. What on Earth warrants sanctions if not the genocide Netanyahu is cynically and indiscriminately perpetrating upon the civilian population of Gaza?
The leftie Arts community hate Australia and democracy support Hamas.
The housing problem is fed labor bringing in too many people not supply.
Reduce immigration seriously not lies from labor.
If you were to parachute Jacinta Price into the lower house outside of NT, considering she’d want to sit as a Liberal, it’d make more sense to put her in a seat like Durack, O’Connor or maybe Grey (although the Liberal Party’s grip on that seat is not as strong.) And have her justify the switch by saying that, even though she’s crossing state lines, it’s pretty much next door to where she was representing beforehand (similar to Joyce’s justification for switching to a NSW seat after serving as a Senator for QLD.)
Of course, the local party and the incumbent Liberal MPs might have a problem with such a move (rather coincidentally, the incumbent MP for Durack is also named Price) and a local independent or even National candidate could take advantage of this kind of thing as well.
It’s not really clean either but it’d make more sense than relocating her from the NT to Sydney. (Not that I care one way or the other how the Liberal Party arrange their chairs.)
The cost of conscience in post-October 7 Australia
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/the-cost-of-conscience-in-post-october-7-australia/
“And yet, when we raise these truths, we are told that we are the problem. That we are causing division. That we are making others “feel unsafe”. It’s a cruel irony that the very people who have seen their communities devastated, their colleagues targeted, their art censored and their careers threatened, are the ones accused of making others uncomfortable.
Let me be clear, the people who have felt truly unsafe over the last 18 months are not those upset by a keffiyeh or a protest poster. They are those whose names are quietly dropped from speaking invitations. Whose job applications go nowhere. Whose contracts are inexplicably ended. Whose inboxes are flooded with threats and hate. Whose professional affiliations are questioned and who are asked, time and again, to prove their civility, their neutrality, their “balance”. All for having dared to say that Palestinians deserve to live.
This goes beyond hurt feelings. It’s about who gets to participate in public life. Who gets to be heard. And who gets erased. As a community, we are being asked to trade in our moral clarity for social acceptance. To prioritise a shallow version of “cohesion” over justice. But we can’t. And we won’t.
Because real social cohesion cannot be built on silence. It cannot be built on the suppression of moral outrage. And it certainly cannot be built by demanding marginalised people ignore genocide for the sake of politeness. That’s not cohesion, it’s coercion. And it fractures the very relationships it claims to protect.
If we keep walking this path, where calling for justice is framed as extremism, and complicity is rewarded as moderation, we will face an even deeper rupture in our social fabric. Communities like mine are being pushed to the edges, asked to forgo our pain, our principles, and our voices, just to maintain the illusion that everything is okay. But everything is not okay.
And for many of us, the damage is already done. Trust has been broken. Faith in institutions, already fragile, has been further eroded. And the idea that there is a place for us in the so-called Australian mainstream now feels more conditional than ever.
Still, we speak. Not because it is safe, but because it is necessary. Because to be silent now would be to abandon not just the people of Gaza, but the integrity of our own communities. And because if we let this moment pass without speaking truth, we would have forfeited the future.
The real test for this country is not whether it can manage discomfort. It is whether it can make space for conscience.”
In case anyone brings it up, here is a link to our Australian Government’s ‘Sudan and South Sudan sanctions regimes’:
https://www.dfat.gov.au/international-relations/security/sanctions/sanctions-regimes/Pages/sudan-and-south-sudan-sanctions-regime
Another win for ALP diversity! Setting up the most hilarious Greens prank ever – waiting for the first Palestinian-Australian to take their seat in the House, then putting forward a motion for Palestinian statehood to see if he votes with his party!
I need the most diverse party you have.
No, that’s too diverse.
pied piper says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:03 pm
“The leftie Arts community hate Australia and democracy support Hamas.
The housing problem is fed labor bringing in too many people not supply.
Reduce immigration seriously not lies from labor.”
Isn’t there some tortured individual you could better trouble with your “insights”.
Try the one in the mirror.
ADMIN!!!!! FORUM POLICY VIOLATION ALERT!!!!
All for a f*cking racecourse.
A racecourse that caters to what can only be called a niche industry. I mean, who goes to the races nowadays?
Don’t worry, when all us oldies have died off, the up-and-comers will wonder what in the Hell we were on about.
The total amount of money I’ve bet in my entire life wouldn’t amount to more than $200. I’ve lost the lot, so I’m not trying to virtue signal here. I don’t gamble because I’m lousy at it, and I’ve seen the odds: the House always wins.
Yet you see the expensive commercials (mini-movies some of them) for Sportsbet and the rest and you’d get the impression that the betting companies were run by committees of benevolent millionaires whose only wish was to give away their entire fortunes to their needy customers. The gambling industry is a rotten cancer in our society.
A pox on all of them, and a pox on the likes of Gai Waterhouse and the leathery John Singleton (honestly, I thought he was dead).
To think the Australian far-right has fallen so far that they’re starting to look like skits in Full Frontal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stj5q4-Cl7M
And here’s a link to the DFAT page which lists all of our Australian Government’s Sanctions Regimes:
https://www.dfat.gov.au/international-relations/security/sanctions/sanctions-regimes/Pages/sudan-and-south-sudan-sanctions-regime
Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo
Counter-Terrorism (UNSC 1373)
Specified Ukraine regions
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)
Former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
Guinea-Bissau
Iran
Iraq
ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida
Lebanon
Libya
Myanmar
Russia
Serious corruption
Serious violations or serious abuses of human rights
Significant cyber incidents
Somalia
Sudan and South Sudan
Syria
The Taliban
Ukraine
Yemen
Zimbabwe
Where is Israel on this long, long list?
NB says
Literally all it takes for an Opposition to sink a referendum is to oppose it. Full stop. Look at the history of referenda in Australia. And Hastie thinks their success in sinking the Voice referendum by opposing it was some great “tactical victory” on their part? Geez, he’s easily impressed if that’s what he thinks.
The Libs are lazy…no policy work at all for the recent election, they couldn’t even come up with any decent set of numbers to push back on Albo’s big lie re:$600 billion for new-q- lar.
I had to point this out to a guy today who is quite proud of getting all his news from The Australian. I pressed him for an explanation as to why they didn’t have the numbers to refute the Big Fib if they had really done the policy work to back it…he seemed genuinely perplexed!
The Voice was easy as for the Libs , just smear and innuendo garnished with a little faux respect for our indigenous people…if you don’t know, say no. Why do you think Abbott adopted the three word slogans to most of his ‘policies’?They are too busy indulging their hate to work on policy.
I don’t know who wrote the above, but Fatima Payman will face re-election in 2028 and was not up for re-election this year.
Do I understand correctly that the Libs want to parachute Jacinta Price into some random seat or other?
Why?
Dog’s Brunch @ #2614 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 6:16 pm
The strategy they had in place, basically to scream “Liar! Liar! Liar!” to any Labor politician who brought up the $600 billion cost didn’t seem to work out very well.
BB I don’t gamble because I’m lousy at it, and I’ve seen the odds: the House always wins.
Why bet on anything with a human on its back? My granny used to say, ‘gambling is Dog’s tax on stupidity’.
According to the SMH article, Mark Latham is an ATC member who attended the vote today.
I didn’t know he was a horse racing enthusiast. That would seem to go against his oft repeated ‘western suburbs battler’ origins.
Luigi Smith @ #2616 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 6:18 pm
Because they think she’s the main reason the Voice referendum was defeated so in their eyes that makes her just so super special awesome and is future Prime Minister material.
Also Big Gina and Big Rupert like her, so therefore it must happen.
newy boy says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:16 pm
And here’s a link to the DFAT page which lists all of our Australian Government’s Sanctions Regimes:
https://www.dfat.gov.au/international-relations/security/sanctions/sanctions-regimes/Pages/sudan-and-south-sudan-sanctions-regime
____________________________
Here:
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/human-rights-sanctions-response-israeli-settler-violence-west-bank
Same as what the UK has just done:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-sanctions-hit-west-bank-violence-network
Don’t we have some kind of informal guideline about posting a link to an article and then posting the text of the whole article underneath?
Yes the posting police have arrived.
Cutting small business tax rate from 25 to 20 per cent would increase GDP by between $5.2bn and $11bn over the forward estimates, including clawing back almost all the tax revenue in five years, new modelling shows. The fresh data places further pressure on Jim Chalmers to consider implementing company tax recommendations from the Productivity Commission.
Recently dumped Science and Industry minister Ed Husic has advocated for a lower corporate tax, either via direct reduction in the company tax rate or through an economy-wide investment allowance, while Dr Chalmers has pushed back saying the government has already done enough.
Modelling from Tulipwood Economics commissioned by the Australia’s small business council shows that under a central case of an immediate 5 per cent reduction in the small business tax rate to 20 per cent in 2025-26 would result in an $11.4 billion boost to GDP over five years, with foregone tax revenue totalling between $800 million and $378 million over forward estimates.
There is a net GDP gain of about $10 for every $1 in lost tax revenue.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/small-business-tax-cut-could-spark-11bn-gdp-boost/news-story/4362c1da14a3dabd308814cb062d9af0?amp
Luigi Smith @ #2614 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 5:48 pm
For the one reason anyone would jump from a secure senate seat to the House of Representatives. Because she’s an ambitious darling of the hard right of the party and they see her as a future leader. They think that her Aboriginal identity is going to endear her to moderate voters or even some on the left (because, y’know, something something identity politics) and make their ultraconservative views more palatable. They also think she worked some sort of magic to get the country to reject the Voice referendum, as if it’s not ridiculously easy to defeat a referendum – especially if one side of politics opposes it.
The UK Conservatives are trying the same thing with Kemi Badenoch. The last I checked, their polling is tanking – even with an extremely unpopular Labour Government in power. And I believe it’s because the people who her message appeals to would not support a black woman in power and the more moderate voters who would be fine (or even positive) about such a thing are turned off by her message. I feel Price would do the same here as Liberal leader.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:27 pm
Cutting small business tax rate from 25 to 20 per cent would increase GDP by between $5.2bn and $11bn over the forward estimates, including clawing back almost all the tax revenue in five years, new modelling shows. The fresh data places further pressure on Jim Chalmers to consider implementing company tax recommendations from the Productivity Commission.
Recently dumped Science and Industry minister Ed Husic has advocated for a lower corporate tax, either via direct reduction in the company tax rate or through an economy-wide investment allowance, while Dr Chalmers has pushed back saying the government has already done enough.
Modelling from Tulipwood Economics commissioned by the Australia’s small business council shows that under a central case of an immediate 5 per cent reduction in the small business tax rate to 20 per cent in 2025-26 would result in an $11.4 billion boost to GDP over five years, with foregone tax revenue totalling between $800 million and $378 million over forward estimates.
There is a net GDP gain of about $10 for every $1 in lost tax revenue.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/small-business-tax-cut-could-spark-11bn-gdp-boost/news-story/4362c1da14a3dabd308814cb062d9af0?amp
_________________________________________
If the primary report itself is not publicly available, then it is probably BS.
The reason Price defected from the Nats is she clearly has leadership ambitions. The reason she wants a lower house seat is she clearly has leadership ambitions.
Sometimes the most obvious explanation is self interest.
I see that the dirty Greens recommended against preferencing Abdo.
No shame.
Where are the sanctions obligations against China?
Thanks Kirsdarke and Wat Tyler.
I’ll mentally add another term in the wilderness to my guess on the LNP’s election prospects.
Luigi Smith @ #2614 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 6:18 pm
She stays bought (sometimes)?
Um. It is not hard.
‘Promoting’ Price is a form of political triangulation.
I note in this general context that a 24 year old man died in the Alice Springs Coles supermarket after two plain clothes police persons ‘placed’ him on the floor. They then noticed that he had stopped breathing.
IMO, it is factually incorrect to imply that Price has been ‘bought’ in some way, shape or fashion.
The notion that Price has been ‘bought’ implies that Price has sold something out and, further, that she is mouthing things that she does not believe in exchange for money.
The particular context is that Indigenous people are subject to a different (and more burdensome) test to non-Indigenous people. No-one is saying that Babet or Antic have sold out or that they have been ‘bought’, for example… just that their views are cray cray.
My strong view is that Price believes what she says and that this made her a terribly effective advocate for the No case in the Referendum.
I’ve been harping on about call centre jobs being thrown out the window now for 2 years, and here it is
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/telstra-ai-job-cuts-investors-workforce
It is excellent to see the Greens calling for sanctions against China. Day in, day out.
Mostly Interested @ #2620 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 6:27 pm
Yes I think we do.
As a retired librarian posting the full text would be a breach of copyright
10% is iirc the limit plus then the link.
How a Labor power play turned Calwell into Australia’s most unpredictable seat
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/victoria/how-a-labor-power-play-turned-calwell-into-australia-s-most-unpredictable-seat-20250507-p5lx92.html
“This masthead spoke to six sources, speaking anonymously to detail internal discussions, who said the unusual situation was created by a 9.6 per cent swing against Labor in 2022 and backlash about the party’s preselection process late last year.”
Just as well Abdo won.
Boerwar @ #2629 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 6:43 pm
BW:
By bought I do not mean just money – though all of them get paid real money for their performance. Price, Babet & Antic are neither crazy or stupid. They have knowingly made themselves willing agents of disinformation & oppression by obscenely rich & selfish arseholes. They chose it and should suffer from that.
Those calling for Australia to go in harder against Israel seem to be forgetting one thing. It wouldn’t take very much to reignite the violence against Australia’s Jewish population that we saw last year. Albo knows that he has to tread very carefully. I think what he has said is quite sufficient.
I dont say this to defend China but as of yet the Chinese army isnt posting tiktoks of their soldiers wearing the clothes of the women they killed while in the houses they killed them in.
Bystander, Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:57 pm:
That violence occurred against a backdrop of no sanctions against Israel, and rhetorical kid gloves for Tel Aviv, not one of stronger sanctions and rhetoric. That’s the illogicality of your argument.
Anyway, perhaps our Prime Minister and Foreign Minister will say and do more in the coming days and weeks. I for one will be supporting them if and when they do.
Good luck trying to parachute Jacinta Price into a federal seat in WA.
The local Libs will almost certainly have one if their own lined up if Melissa Price (Durack) or Rick Wilson (O’Connor) don’t want to go on.
The feds taking over preselections here would start a huge bun fight.
Boerwar posted
That is my strong view too. I also think that as a first nations person and a woman to boot, that she deserves a lot more respect than some here are prepared to give her, just because she has different political views to them.
I don’t believe Price was necessarily an effective advocate for the No case (same with Mundine). It was just that their presence as Aboriginal people voting No gave a permission structure for non-Aboriginal people who wanted to vote No but didn’t want the racist tag lobbed on them to do so.
In any case, it’s done now and Mundine tried to win a federal seat off the back of his No Voice campaign and failed. This is now the third time and I suspect the last time for him. And Price has had to defect to the Liberals in order to keep her ambitions alive. It remains to be seen what happens to her.
‘rhwombat says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:56 pm
Boerwar @ #2629 Tuesday, May 27th, 2025 – 6:43 pm
….’
=====================
My view is that Price believes what she is selling. She is not for sale. IMO, she is a dupe. But she has not been bought. She believes.
laughtong:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:50 pm
You may be interested in this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/princes-in-the-tower-history-richard-iii-edward-v-b2757443.html
‘Bean says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:57 pm
I dont say this to defend China but as of yet the Chinese army isnt posting tiktoks of their soldiers wearing the clothes of the women they killed while in the houses they killed them in.’
==================
There is zero doubt that China routinely and totally ignores human rights and that China is trying to culturally obliterate the Uighers.
I am certain that that is what motivates the Greens to issue almost daily bulletins demanding that Albanese sets sanctions against China.
Their calls on something similar for Gaza is a deflection from the dire situation in China.
‘Bystander says:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 6:57 pm
Those calling for Australia to go in harder against Israel seem to be forgetting one thing. It wouldn’t take very much to reignite the violence against Australia’s Jewish population that we saw last year. Albo knows that he has to tread very carefully. I think what he has said is quite sufficient.’
================
You could argue an analagous position with respect to Islamophobia against Australian muslims from Iran, Sudan etc, etc, etc. It is not, IMO, a strong ethical argument.
”
Socratessays:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 at 10:39 am
Ven
Glad your son is OK. From news reports there were initially social media posts suggesting “another” racist attack. Turns out the driver was a 53 year old white male Briton.
I have supported Liverpool since age 13. Glad they won. Sad about the attack.
It is getting to the point where we need to design all public spaces to protect crowds from vehicle intrusion. Bollards everywhere will be the new normal.
”
My son took the video of Liverpool parade from very close range during the early part of parade and left early from Liverpool to reach London since he an DIL needed to go to work early next day (today).
The car ploughed into the crowd at almost the end of parade.
BTW, yesterday was Public holiday in England.
I learned as a kid (yeah where i lived at the time) that ip replication should really only ever be a summary, a direct quote, or a direct refutation. In media, that last one isn’t supposed to be the journalist.
Alas, in our current world… still, the same. Politics isn’t art. The problem is really the people who want to hide their opinion behind a pay wall. You are, by definition, limiting your exposure. That appeal to authority only works if everyone recognises it. Hard to be grass roots when you’re paying Dodgy Dan’s Landscaping for your new garden.
These days? Ya have to realise that if you just post walls of contextless slop, all people will eventually scroll past all of it. It’s like forcing people to watch an untuned TV channel.
Border at 7.19 pm
“She believes” in Trump for Australia.
Government blocks motion to recognise China’s treatment of Uighurs as genocide
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/government-blocks-motion-to-recognise-chinas-treatment-of-uighurs-as-genocide/ajkxkia06
“Independent Senator Rex Patrick has accused the Australian government of failing to call out China’s treatment of Uighurs in the Xinjiang region.
The federal government and Labor blocked an attempt by Senator Patrick on Monday to push through a Senate motion that would have recognised the Chinese government’s actions against the Muslim minority as “genocide”.
:::
However, the United States administration has described the persecution of the Uighurs as genocide as have Canada’s Parliament and the Dutch Parliament.
:::
Labor Senator Katy Gallagher also said the party strongly condemned the “human rights violations” against Uighurs and other ethnic minorities.
The Greens, Senator Jacqui Lambie and Senator Stirling Griff had supported Senator Patrick’s motion.
A recent report by the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy – a US-based foreign policy think tank – found China’s actions in Xinjiang violate every provision of the United Nations Genocide Convention
The report cited examples of the torture of Uighurs, internment and forced labour, widespread rape and sexual abuse as well as systematic forced abortions and sterilizations.”
Yes. Good example.