A correspondent wrote today to inquire about the decline in seats being won on first preferences, and having gone to the trouble of amassing the relevant data going back to 1993, I thought it worth a chart and a blog post. If it had gone back as far as 1975, we would have found 103 out of 127 seats “going to preferences”, which then served as shorthand to denote a close result, around half of them “three-cornered contests”, which persists as a term to describe seats contested by both the Nationals and the Liberals.
Within the period covered by the chart, we find an interruption in 1998 and 2001 from the first age of One Nation, notably hitting the Coalition a lot harder than Labor; then an apparent resumption of normal service followed by a steady decline through to 2022, by which time Labor’s decade-long reliance on Greens preferences in nearly all of its seats is supplemented by teal independents and a proliferation of predators upon Coalition vote share on the right, including but not exclusive to the return of One Nation.
The eleven seats won on first preferences at this month’s election were, for Labor, Chifley, Kingston, Grayndler, Greenway, Fenner, Sydney, Kingsford Smith and Oxley; for the Nationals, Maranoa, Gippsland and New England; and for the Liberals, bupkis. Interestingly, there are two among the Labor list that haven’t historically been reckoned safe seats: Greenway, which Michelle Rowland has held for Labor since a redistribution-assisted win from the Liberals in 2010, consolidating with consecutive swings of 8.7% in 2022 and 4.7% a fortnight ago; and Kingston, which Amanda Rishworth has turned into a safe seat since gaining it from the Liberals in 2007, despite redistributions in aggregate having done her more harm than good.
Please note the other posts since the last open thread:
• A guest post from Adrian Beaumont on elections in Romania, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Albania, Canada and South Korea.
• A post on Tasmania covering a new state poll and elections this weekend for three seats in the state’s Legislative Council.
• A progressively updated thread on late counting, mainly relevant now to Calwell and Bradfield.
• An analysis of the Senate result, which remains about a fortnight away from resolution.
What is the possibility of our political system becoming a 4 cornered constest:
Nationals representing the conservative right (absorbing more of the populist one nation/katter types)
Liberals the centre right (current liberal mods and teals)
Labor the centre left
Greens the socialist left
the liberals path to government in this scenario is to win back the cities, become the largest party and then govern in minority by either negotiating with nationals or labor to support legislation. In many regards the liberal moderates (turnbull etc) and the teals have more in common with labor than the hard right canavan/antic/abetz types but just represent the interests of wealthier people.
It just seems the only way back for the liberals is to become a truly liberal party again of competent, highly educated administrators who act in the national interest and are not beholden to special interest groups (big business or unions)
“are not beholden to special interest groups”
The only reason the Liberal Party exists is because it’s beholden to big business.
Ghost of Whitlam
Yes that is the case now but ir wasnt menzies original vision of the party. He envisaged a party of small business owners and the well educated governing in the national interest not in the interest of big business and the wealthy (who can look after themselves well enough) or organized labour and unions (represented by the alp)
I believe in the UK this is referred to as “One nation consevatism”
(Think turnbull, peacock, hewson, fraser)
What numpties the Nationals are. Sacrificing a power-sharing arrangement with a potential party of government just because they couldn’t bully the Liberals into maintaining a nuclear policy which is on the nose with the Australian electorate. As if that policy wouldn’t be under review given the electoral thumping they just got because of it?
Nuclear is dead. The Nationals need to accept that, like it seems the Liberals may already have.
Menzies’ original vision for the Liberal Party was nothing except rebranding conservatism because he had ruined the UAP brand by selling iron to Japan they turned into weapons they used against our diggers & navy.
“… we find an interruption in 1998 and 2001 from the first age of One Nation, notably hitting the Coalition a lot harder than Labor …”
“… seats won on first preferences at this month’s election were, for Labor, [7 others] and Oxley …”
Interestingly, the formerly safe Labor seat that unexpectedly spawned One Nation has reverted to being … a safe Labor seat.
Nuclear is dead. Time to move on. @ #4 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 2:34 am
The real problem is the people behind the Nationals, Clive and Gina, who are pushing the Nats to maintain the Nuclear policy. At least that’s how I think it’s going behind closed doors.
And speaking of goings on behind closed doors, I bet that, at the very least, Allegra Spender has received a phone call through back channels to see if she would come across to the Liberals now that they have come to their senses. Her electorate wouldn’t mind that, I reckon.
“Interestingly, the formerly safe Labor seat that unexpectedly spawned One Nation has reverted to being … a safe Labor seat.”
Redistribution changed the seat massively after Hanson’s first term when it was pretty much cut in half with the Ipswich & rural core of Hanson’s voter base being moved into the new seat of Blair. The suburban area remained in Oxley and has continued to shrink in size due to population growth so it would barely take 20 minutes to cross while Blair stretches in Chilean fashion from the south of Ipswich to 3 hours drive north well past Nanango.
Which is why she jumped ship from Oxley to Blair.
The LNP has come full circle on Hanson.
The LNP got rid of her in 1998 by agreeing to a preference deal with Labor & went on to win the election in a landslide.
In 2025 the LNP joined forces with One Nation and went on to lose in a landslide.
The federal lib/nats are officially beyond chaotic , there’s not much even the lib/nats propaganda media units can do for them.
Looks briefly at the chart, concludes its all Howard’s fault.
The Coalition’s split in Canberra is set to have “no bearing” on Queensland’s Liberal National Party, but the party says it is “optimistic” an agreement will be reached at a federal level in the future.
National Party leader and Maranoa MP David Littleproud announced his party would not form a Coalition with the Liberals on Tuesday.
Mr Littleproud is among the six Queensland LNP members who sit in the Nationals party room in Canberra. The 10 other federal LNP members sit in the Liberals party room, including deputy leader Ted O’Brien.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-21/queensland-liberal-national-party-coalition-split-impact/105314168
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-nationals-were-once-feared-now-they-merely-stamp-their-feet-20250520-p5m0rb.html
😆
Hopefully the members of the political commentariat who seriously declare time after time “the seat will go to preferences” will read William’s report and realise that the vast majority of seats do.
I won’t be holding my breath though.
WB: typo first paragraph
William thanks for the lead in article. It certainly demolishes recent nonsense about preferential voting being “unfair”. The more major party PVs decline, the more sensible preferential voting looks as a means of getting outcomes acceptable to the majority.
Interestingly, there are two among the Labor list that haven’t historically been reckoned safe seats: Greenway, which Michelle Rowland has held for Labor since a redistribution-assisted win from the Liberals in 2010, consolidating with consecutive swings of 8.7% in 2022 and 4.7% a fortnight ago
Three factors in Michelle Rowland’s success in turning Greenway into one of the few first preference majority seats for Labor.
1. The Fijian heritage has not gone unnoticed in the Pasifika community in Sydney’s west https://www.fbcnews.com.fj/news/first-pacific-woman-appointed-australias-ag/
2. The Darug indigenous community and their supporters who voted against the Voice on grounds of limited symbolism, saw the growing disdain for indigenous culture led by Dutton – and returned to Labor
3. The bussed in blue-shirted Bretheren festooned the pre-polls with their aggressive, in-your-face harassment of other party booth workers and voters entering – forcing HTVs on them and bad mouthing non-Liberal candidates. It’s hard to gauge how non committed citizens felt after running the gauntlet of 20+ rabid blue-shirts, but some would have thought the best reposte would be to put Liberal last.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Russia Classifies Population Data as Birth Rates Plunge to 200-Year Low: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-classifies-population-data-birth-rate-2074460
EU will move ahead with new sanctions on Russia without US: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/05/20/eu-will-move-ahead-with-new-sanctions-on-russia-without-us
UK suspends trade deal talks with Israel as ambassador summoned over ‘indefensible’ Gaza aid blockade: https://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/uk-politics/uk-suspends-trade-deal-israel-ambassador-summoned-indefensible-gaza-aid-blockade/
US working with allies on deliveries of new Patriot systems to Ukraine – US state secretary: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/05/20/7513221/
Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir promoted to field marshal: https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-army-chief-asim-munir-122749602.html
Trump to announce $25B funding for Golden Dome project: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/20/golden-dome-cost-trump-announcement-00359404
If Haredi draft dodgers arrested, ultra-Orthodox will leave Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-chief-rabbi-if-haredi-draft-dodgers-arrested-ultra-orthodox-will-leave-israel/#openwebComments
Nigel Farage missed debate on Brexit reset because he is holidaying abroad: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/20/farage-missed-debate-on-brexit-reset-because-he-is-holidaying-abroad
‘Trump says ‘big bill’ should only help GOP states: ‘Don’t want to benefit Dem governors’: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-democratic-governors/
Trump Seriously Freaked Out European Allies on Call About Putin: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-seriously-freaked-out-european-allies-on-call-about-vladimir-putin/
Trump Spirals at Kennedy Center Dinner: “I’ll Shove It Up Their Ass”: https://newrepublic.com/post/195469/trump-crude-rant-kennedy-center-dinner-speech
Qatar Didn’t Offer Trump Luxury Plane, His Admin Asked About Using It for Air Force One Themselves: https://www.latintimes.com/qatar-didnt-offer-trump-luxury-plane-his-admin-asked-about-using-it-air-force-one-themselves-583421
‘Not Hunger Games for Migrants’: Producer Behind Controversial Reality Show Being Considered by DHS Defends Pitch: https://www.latintimes.com/not-hunger-games-migrants-producer-behind-controversial-reality-show-being-considered-dhs-583360
GOP Lawmaker Turns on Trump After Admin Denied Raising Deficit by Trillions: ‘Now That’s a Joke’: https://www.latintimes.com/gop-lawmaker-turns-trump-after-admin-denied-raising-deficit-trillions-now-thats-joke-583492
New Trump vaccine policy limits access to COVID shots: https://apnews.com/article/vaccines-fda-kennedy-covid-shots-rfk-trump-bb4de15b6ff955d6cd0b406aaec3cdc5
Moody’s downgrades JPM, BofA and Wells Fargo after US credit rating cut: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-downgrades-jpm-bofa-wells-fargo-after-us-credit-rating-cut-2025-05-19/
US violated court order by deporting migrants to South Sudan, immigrant rights advocates say: https://www.reuters.com/world/immigrant-rights-advocates-claim-us-violated-court-order-by-deporting-migrants-2025-05-20/
I’m so glad to live in Australia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/05/20/covid-vaccine-elderly-high-risk-fda/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/20/elon-musk-less-political-spending/
His appointment to DOGE is supposed to end at the end of May. I suspect he’ll quietly fade away as he hasn’t been seen much lately.
Thanks for the roundup HH. That story that the Qatar plane grift was initiated by a Trump request highlights the pure personal grift at work in the Trump administration. How much money will he demand from Australia for AUKUS subs?
Meanwhile this Crikey article highlights some curious links between Tony Abbott and Hungary. Whatever happened to “shirtfronting” Putin?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/20/tony-abbott-viktor-orban-hungary-conservatism-ukraine/
Good Morning! Here’s Your’The Breakup Song’ News and Views Roundup.
Littleproud may have ended things, but this break-up was a decade in the making. By James Massola
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/littleproud-may-have-ended-things-but-this-breakup-was-a-decade-in-the-making-20250520-p5m0ov.html
The Nationals were once feared. Now they merely stamp their feet. By Tony Wright
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-nationals-were-once-feared-now-they-merely-stamp-their-feet-20250520-p5m0rb.html
What’s really behind the Coalition split? By Mike Foley and Olivia Ireland
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-s-really-behind-the-coalition-split-20250520-p5m0qe.html
Conscious uncoupling comes to Canberra as the Coalition splits up. By Matthew Knott
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/conscious-uncoupling-comes-to-canberra-as-the-coalition-splits-up-20250520-p5m0q4.html
Nationals leave themselves exposed in fight that amounts to chicken feed. By Peter Hartcher
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-leave-themselves-exposed-in-fight-that-amounts-to-chicken-feed-20250520-p5m0u3.html
Senior Liberals fear Coalition split may damage party for years but others see silver lining. Henry Belot
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/21/senior-liberals-fear-coalition-split-may-damage-party-for-years-but-others-see-silver-lining
Explainer: Liberals and Nationals call it quits: what does the ‘monumental’ Coalition split mean for day-to-day politics? The Nationals are now a minor party – here’s how it works, from question time allocations and salaries to the LNP in Queensland.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/20/liberal-party-and-nationals-split-how-divided-coalition-will-work
Sussan Ley knew she faced a challenge. Then the Nationals went nuclear. David Littleproud brings mutually assured destruction to both parties’ electoral ambitions. Tom McIlroy
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/21/sussan-ley-knew-she-faced-a-challenge-then-the-nationals-went-nuclear
The great Coalition split: how Littleproud’s irresistible force met Ley’s immovable object
Some Liberals thought the Nationals were bluffing, but the junior Coalition partner insisted on four policy commitments – and the freedom to break ranks. By Dan Jervis-Bardy
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/21/inside-the-coalition-split-nationals-david-littleproud-liberal-party-sussan-ley
Is it really over? What does the Nationals’ split from the Coalition mean for Australian politics?
– Full Story podcast
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/may/20/is-it-really-over-what-does-the-nationals-split-from-the-coalition-mean-for-australian-politics-full-story-podcast
‘Stupid move’: Howard lashes Coalition split as Nationals leave Ley to go it alone.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-and-liberals-won-t-enter-into-new-federal-coalition-agreement-20250520-p5m0pd.html
Why losing Bradfield would be salt in the wound of the Liberal Party. By Alexandra Smith
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/why-losing-bradfield-would-be-salt-in-the-wound-of-the-liberal-party-20250520-p5m0pg.html
Liberals and Nationals consciously uncouple after long and fruitful marriage. By Annabel Crabb
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-21/nationals-liberals-coalition-split-marriage-divorce/105308798
Coalition split leaves Liberals and Nationals without any excuses. By Jacob Greber
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-20/coalition-split-nationals-liberals-sussan-ley-david-littleproud/105314664
The Liberal Party isn’t just in trouble — it’s in denial. A new leader can’t fix foundations built to resist progress. Dr Victoria Fielding
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/liberal-party-cant-save-itself-from-foundational-flaws,19756
The band is breaking up: has the Coalition stopped making sense? By Joshua Black
https://theconversation.com/the-band-is-breaking-up-has-the-coalition-stopped-making-sense-257118
The Coalition is on a break, but the Nationals risk finding their former partner doesn’t want them back
https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-is-on-a-break-but-the-nationals-risk-finding-their-former-partner-doesnt-want-them-back-257117
After 50 years, we’re back to the glory days of full employment. By Ross Gittins
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/after-50-years-we-re-back-to-the-glory-days-of-full-employment-20250520-p5m0p4.html
Albanese vowed to build 1.2 million homes. His own agency shows him falling well short. Shane Wright
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-vowed-to-build-1-2-million-homes-his-own-agency-shows-him-falling-well-short-20250519-p5m0e1.html
Anthony Albanese to visit China for second time amid Xi Jinping’s push for ‘mature’ ties with Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-21/anthony-albanese-to-meet-xi-jinping-in-china/105312020
Can Murray Watt fix Australia’s broken nature laws? First stop, Western Australia.
https://theconversation.com/can-murray-watt-fix-australias-broken-nature-laws-first-stop-western-australia-257000
Labor’s second-term defence priorities – could they include a pact with Europe? Peter Layton
https://theconversation.com/labors-second-term-defence-priorities-could-they-include-a-pact-with-europe-256580
Roger Cook’s cabinet attended dinner at Stokes’ mansion.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/roger-cook-s-cabinet-attended-dinner-at-stokes-mansion-20250516-p5lzwe.html
Hope springs eternal as Victorian Budget promises ongoing infrastructure projects
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-21/victorian-state-budget-analysis/105314812
Seven charts that tell the story of the Victorian budget.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-20/victoria-budget-charts-debt-surplus-government/105314180
Cost of food, education and power is spiralling in Victoria. This graph proves it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/cost-of-food-education-and-power-is-spiralling-in-victoria-this-graph-proves-it-20250517-p5m00c.html
Victorians react to the 2025 state budget.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/victorians-react-to-the-2025-state-budget-20250514-p5lz68.html
The upcoming Tasmanian budget will include $5 million to subsidise training for pharmacists to be able to treat more conditions, including certain skin conditions, ear infections and reflux.
The move has been welcomed by Tasmania’s pharmacy sector, but is strongly opposed by the Tasmanian branch of the Australian Medical Association, which says it’s “misguided” and could increase risk for patients.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-21/tas-pharmacists-treat-more-conditions-state-budget-funding/105314500
As Queensland launches yet another child safety inquiry, what’s going to be different about this one?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-21/queensland-child-safety-review-protection-laws-inquiry/105312952
NSW government’s workers comp changes dubbed a ‘bandaid solution’. By Adele ferguson
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-21/icare-workers-psychological-injuries-compensation-scheme-nsw/105308804
Sorry, Donald, but the celebrities you covet will never be your friends. By Michael Koziol
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/sorry-donald-but-the-celebrities-you-covet-will-never-be-your-friends-20250520-p5m0ki.html
Trump can complain all he wants – but he can’t stop his own economic mess. Between his tariffs and his regressive ‘big, beautiful bill’, the president is wreaking havoc – and he never learns. Read this!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/20/trump-economy-sidney-blumenthal
The Reserve Bank has a special term for Donald Trump. He’s news, but the Reserve Bank has another word for it – “uncertainty drag”. And that drag now has a number. By Shane Wright
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-reserve-bank-has-a-special-term-for-donald-trump-20250520-p5m0lg.html
Interest rate cut was nearly bigger as instability fears linger. By Shane Wright and Millie Muroi
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-cuts-rates-for-second-time-in-three-months-20250520-p5m0le.html
Australia rebukes Israel in joint statement demanding aid for starving Gazans. By Matthew Knott
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-blasts-israel-in-joint-statement-demanding-aid-for-starving-gazans-20250520-p5m0nc.html
Annabel Dulhunty. How should Australia respond to the starvation of Gaza?
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/how-should-australia-respond-to-the-starvation-of-gaza/
EU to launch Israel trade review as Gaza situation deteriorates.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-israel-diplomatic-agreement-review-humanitarian-crisis-gaza-strip/
Bruised and angry, Elon Musk says he will cut back on political spending.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bruised-and-angry-elon-musk-says-he-will-cut-back-on-political-spending-20250521-p5m0vm.html
‘Don’t f–k around with Medicaid’: Trump moves to steamroll megabill opposition. The president flexed his political muscle on Capitol Hill. But not all House Republicans are ready to submit.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/20/trump-megabill-opposition-medicaid-00358394
What Does ‘Don’t F*ck With Medicaid’ Mean? Depends Who You Ask. Plus: The federal deficit isn’t on anyone’s radar. By Joe Perticone
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-does-dont-fck-with-medicaid
Don’t be fooled. Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is typically ugly and typically misnamed.
‘Republicans have always understood how to use language to manipulate people’ Arwa Mahdawi
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/20/dont-be-fooled-trumps-one-big-beautiful-bill-is-typically-ugly-and-typically-misnamed
American Corruption. The Founders would have hated Trump’s luxury jet. By Paul Rosenzweig
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/05/trump-qatari-jet-constitution/682829/
Played by Vladimir Putin, a ‘weary’ Donald Trump could walk away from Ukraine. By John Lyons
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-20/played-by-putin-weary-trump-could-walk-away-from-ukraine/105312426
Geoff Raby The Russians are not coming to Indonesia
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/the-russians-are-not-coming-to-indonesia/
Samir Bhattacharya. Beijing’s global vision takes shape in Africa
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/beijings-global-vision-takes-shape-in-africa/
Peter Layton Time to change Australia’s grand strategies. As global power dynamics shift and traditional alliances fray, Australia’s current grand strategies are reaching their limits.
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/time-to-change-australias-grand-strategies/
U.K.’s Labour Government and Tories Are Both Abandoning Liberal Pluralism in the Wake of Nigel Farage’s Victory. Instead of fighting right-wing populism and nativism, they are surrendering to it
https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/uks-labour-government-and-tories
Election analysis reveals right-wing surge across Europe. Centrist wins in the triple election did not equal defeat of the right. Call Albo!
https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-also-won-sunday-election-europe-romania-portugal-poland/
Cartoon Time!
Alan Moir
Fiona Katauskas
Simon Letch
Bethany Rae
Joe Benke
Dionne Gain
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
From the Internet!
Enjoy!
Sarah Akinterinwa on the rivalry between Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage
Sarah Akinterinwa on political red flags
Altered images – why does my mirror make me look so bad? The Edith Pritchett cartoon
The most interesting factoid in the Boele turnaround in Bradfield that I saw was that the votes that did it were thought to have come from Australia House in London. 🙂
I expect Nats will run a candidate in Wannon next election against Dan Tehan, im sure there are already ex-city councillors putting their hand up for it.
If only there was some bad blood between them (that could be nurtured) half the Lib primaries become Nat primaries, then those preferences could fly off anywhere…
C@tmomma, Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 4:45 am:
Clive and Gina are weirdo losers who should be ignored by any party that wants to ever be in government.
bug1 @ #24 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 7:27 am
Wannon might be a bit tricky for even the Nationals. Yes the northwest part of the electorate around Hamilton is part of the National-held state district of Lowan, but the south around Portland and Warrnambool and the east around Colac are parts of the Liberal-held state districts of South West Coast and Polwarth.
Both were contested in 2015 by-elections by the Liberals and Nationals with no Labor candidates running, and the National candidate only got around 15% of the vote, the Liberals meanwhile got 50% and 40% of the primary vote.
However, if they did run and challenge Tehan, preference leakage would not help him, especially if Alex Dyson runs again.
Various commenters have poured shit on Victoria’s debt position.
Note that Victoria now has the same credit rating as the United States.
No company can have a better credit rating that it’s country. This means all US companies are going to get ratcheted down – really solid debt that was AAA gets to be AA+, same as the US. That means the slightly riskier old AA+ of slightly worse companies, states and cities gets to go down a notch, and so on down the food chain.
The profligacy of this Republican US administration and Republican congress is going to add to the borrowing costs of every American company.
Nats in #wannon right now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFYQQPAOz7Y
Kirsdarke: i think Neoh is really a Nat, was spurned by Libs, ex Warrnambool City councillor, well-meaning guy actually, has tried as an independent a couple of times.
There are also ex-Moyne shire numpties would have a go, and actually Nats will want to put candidates everywhere to push their senate chances.
Maybe fed and state differences will be significant for nats vote ?
William would you assume that with the coalition split there will be even less primary winners below 50% ?.
With the advent of the peri-urban era I suspect this trend will see an accelerated up tick
In a bit of logical venting, staff and workers associated with Goodenough are not good enough and are being expelled from the Liberal Party.
bug1 @ #29 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 7:58 am
Yeah, Neoh did run in 2015 as a National, then in 2018 as an Independent.
A few Independents have run in South-West Coast lately and got at least 10%, including Roy Reekie (Labor-Independent), James Purcell and Carol Altmann, but not enough to beat the Liberals.
Oh well, its a nice looking straw to grasp at anyway…
Trump stamps his feet and waves his little fists in a fit of pique:
https://theconversation.com/after-another-call-with-putin-it-looks-like-trump-has-abandoned-efforts-to-mediate-peace-in-ukraine-257021
How should Australia respond to the starvation of Gaza?
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/how-should-australia-respond-to-the-starvation-of-gaza/
“…Amnesty International has also accused Australia of exporting armaments to Israel via exports to the US which are then sent to Israel. This indirect approach has enabled the Albanese Government to claim it has not exported arms to Israel. However, the Australian Government and its Western allies are coming under pressure from civil society organisations to stop all arms exports to Israel, direct and indirect, including exports of Australian-made weapons components being used in the manufacture of F-35 fighter jets used against Gaza.
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Yet how is it a fringe, “extremist” position to call out the continued export of arms to Israel and the government’s near-silence on Israel’s actions? Never could I have imagined that it would be considered “balanced and moderate” to let a population be starved to death. This lack of condemnation and action is particularly perplexing given the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (along with Israel’s former defence minister Yoav Gallant). There is a widespread view that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, from Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories.
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While we may seem removed from the situation in Gaza, Australia can do much more to try to end this human suffering. For example, Australia can grant more visas to Palestinian refugees – Australia has so far rejected more than 7000 applications. It can revoke permits to export to the United States for arms produced by Electro Optic Systems, Lockheed Martin and Thales Australia, contingent upon legally binding guarantees that these commodities will not be sent to Israel. Instead of using tepid language to describe Israel’s actions, Australia can also take a much stronger stance in condemnation of the genocide, and apply targeted sanctions. It can also join 148 countries, including Norway, Ireland and Spain, in recognising Palestine as a state. Australia’s unequivocal condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provides an important template for strong Australian condemnation of violations of International Humanitarian Law.
If Australia does not act now, it will remain complicit in the mass starvation of hundreds of thousands of children. Surely, that is something worth speaking out and acting on.”
Did I hear the Greens stamping their feet about something or other? The Sudan genocide? The Uigher genocide? The Rohingya genocide? The Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Labor’s got a new mandate to act. Still condones war crimes. Why?
The Palestine elephant remains in the room. It’s putrid, stinking of death while our government holds its nose and looks away, ignoring the war crimes, writes Michael Pascoe.
https://michaelwest.com.au/labors-got-a-new-mandate-still-condones-war-crimes-why/
“The old “the standard you walk past is the standard you accept” line means we effectively condone this crime. That we have willingly imposed sanctions for lesser crimes makes us arch hypocrites by ignoring this crime against humanity.
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Australia actively maintains sanctions against a long list of individuals and organisations. You can read all their names, date and place of birth and last known address on what DFAT calls the Consolidated List.
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The Jewish Council of Australia has called out genocide, has underlined the International Court of Justice orders, and has repeatedly called on our government to impose sanctions. The government has ignored it. “
C@t says
The most interesting factoid in the Boele turnaround in Bradfield that I saw was that the votes that did it were thought to have come from Australia House in London.
Not hairdressers then?
Personally I reckon the biggest target of the Nationals is Ley’s own seat of Farrer if this Coalition tiff remains so. That was held by Tim Fischer before her, and she only won over the National candidate Bill Bott by 206 votes in 2001.
#weatheronPB
A perfect picture,
drawn by a genius child,
full of hope and dreams.
I might be a little slow on the uptake, we’re nearly three weeks out from the election and Dutton has all but vanished from public view. But it’s worth pausing to remember the kind of character he showed us just months before his ignominious defeat.
In February, he chose to falsely claim that Mark Dreyfus had been absent from the debate (in the context of community anti-semitism) for 15 months. That timeframe cruelly and unmistakably lined up with the illness and death of Dreyfus’s wife. He didn’t misspeak. He didn’t walk it back. He let it hang there, knowing full well what it implied.
So if, down the line, anyone starts peddling the idea of Peter Dutton as some tough but decent bloke who meant well remember this – when faced with a political inconvenience, he reached not just for a cheap shot, but for one laced with calculated cruelty.
He invoked the private grief of a man who had just lost his wife, distorted it, and flung it as a smear. And he did it without hesitation, without apology, and with full knowledge of what he was doing. That’s not a lapse in judgment, it’s a deliberate act of malice.
He’s being excoriated now for what his pathetic campaign has led the coalition parties. But I’m not prepared to let that aspect of his character be forgotten.
For those who don’t live in Victoria.
The infrastructure Projects over the past 8 years have transformed the place.
So our debt to asset ratio is in a good position.
With respect to the whole crime spiel. I repeat the tobacco wars which has resulted from failed tobacco excise policy, is the main culprit at present.
I defer to the feds in this space
Another sunny and very fresh morning in Melbourne town.
I can comfortably say that if Victorians are to choose between less infrastructure, in order to have less debt, they will choose infrastructure every time.
Just ask the tradies…..
Boerwar
Have you had a good look at the emergency levy increases here in Victoria? And what is your view on it?
Boer kinda like how in the west they no longer considered Dr Honey’s supporters sweet enough.
Ironically it was Albo and his posse that were judged the sweetest of all a few weeks ago.
Is Roger Runningbear still thinking about about challenging Littleproud at preselction next time around ?
“Are you as tired as I am of winning?”
Jordon Shanks rushes out this response to The Split
https://youtu.be/9xpy30-QUmk?si=oZs7nyXCNAXPCJyW
I have this image of Jacinta Nameya Price hopping from one chunk of climate induced iceberg to an ever-decreasing sized piece.
Victoria is a debt basketcase and credit ratings as well.
Fitch AA+ will be changing.
S and P AA
Moodys Aa2
They did not like the budget they said yesterday and more downgrades coming.
Never seen a more pathetic treasurer a quota promoted dud no doubt and reminded me of the Covid duds we saw you know the ones promoted not on merit but by sexist and racist quotas.
The debt is being added to 36o million for a fix for Grand Prix track and 30 billion overall for tunnels to nowhere in wealthy eastern subs.
The debt is blowing out aka compounding quicker than the state gov predicted they have no serious interest as usual in taking on the public sector unions their masters.
Victoria’s number plate slogan is changing.
To
GO WOKE GO BROKE
Desert Qlder:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 8:40 am
I agree. Dutton should face the music, not only because of his disastrous handling of the election campaign, but also due to his low treatment of Dreyfus – ‘tough but decent’ my arse!
Dog’s Brunch @ #38 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 8:26 am
I imagine there’s some fantastic Aussie hairdressers in London. 😉