Tasmania: EMRS poll and Legislative Council elections

A fortnight after losing both their federal seats, the quarterly EMRS poll records Tasmania’s Liberals with their lowest state primary vote since 2009, down five points on the last poll to 29% with Labor up one to 31%, the Greens up one to 14%, the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6% and independents up five to 17%. The report further relates that the Liberals have fallen ten points in the north-west of the state to 34%, eight points in the north-east to 30%, and two points in the south to 26%. Jeremy Rockliff’s favourability rating, meaning the number rating him from seven to ten on a ten-point scale minus the number rating him zero to three, is down four points to 6%, while Dean Winter is down one to 5%. In spite of everything, Rockliff nonetheless widens his lead as preferred premier from 44-34 to 44-32. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1000.

All of which may or may not have some bearing on Saturday’s periodic Legislative Council elections, this year encompassing three of the seats that make up the state’s 15-member upper chamber. These are normally held on the first Saturday of May, but were delayed on this occasion to prevent a clash with the federal election. The current numbers in the chamber are Liberal four, Labor three, Greens one, independents seven – the seats up for election feature one held by Liberal, one by Labor and one by an independent.

Montgomery. Encompassing part of Burnie and the coast immediately to its east, including Penguin and Ulverstone, Montgomery will be vacated with the retirement of Leonie Hiscutt, who has held it for the Liberals since 2013. Hiscutt was re-elected in 2019 with a 10.2% margin over Labor, who are not contesting this time. The new Liberal candidate is Stephen Parry, who served in the Senate from 2005 to 2017, when a dual British citizenship caused him to fall foul of the Section 44 crisis. Parry’s task is complicated by the fact that Hiscutt is supporting the independent candidacy of her son, Casey Hiscutt. Also in the field are Darren Briggs of the Greens, who was the party’s lead candidate in Braddon at last year’s state election; Gatty Burnett, an independent who likewise ran in Braddon last year, making little impression; and Adrian Pickin of Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

Pembroke. Covering the eastern shore of Hobart’s Derwent river directly opposite the city centre, Pembroke will be defended by Luke Edmunds, who retained it for Labor at a by-election in September 2022 following the resignation of Jo Siejka. Edmunds is being challenged by two former parliamentarians, one being Allison Ritchie, who held the seat for Labor from 2001 until retiring due to ill health in 2009, and has lately served as deputy mayor of Clarence. The seat was then held for the Liberals until 2017 by the late Vanessa Goodwin, whom Ritchie challenged unsuccessfully as an independent in 2013. Also running as an independent is Tony Mulder, who held Rumney from 2011 to 2017 and ran in Franklin as a Liberal candidate in 2011 and an independent in 2024. Also in the field are Carly Allen of the Greens and Steve Loring of Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

Nelson. Independent Meg Webb is seeking re-election after emerging the winner from a field of ten in 2019 following the retirement of Jim Wilkinson, who had held it as an independent since 1995. She faces opposition from Marcus Vermey of the Liberals and Nathan Volf of the Greens. The seat covers Hobart’s riverside southern suburbs around Sandy Bay and the satellite town of Kingston.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe