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Saturday
Tim Wilson has finished the preference distribution in Goldstein 260 votes ahead of Zoe Daniel, after a series of late revisions that drove first drove his lead up yesterday from 129 to 444, before today cutting it back to 170 and then settling on the final margin. These convulsions presumably loom large in the request Daniel has submitted for a recount, but experience suggests the AEC will stand by the 100-vote threshold it set in place in 2008.
Friday
Yet another twist in the saga of Bradfield, which ended with Gisele Kapterian taking the lead at the last and finishing the scrutiny with an eight-vote lead over Nicolette Boele. The Australian Electoral Commission promptly confirmed that this would be subject to a recount, as it does automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, which will begin on Monday and is “expected to take up to two weeks”. Twenty-two out of Kapterian’s 48-vote gain during the preference distribution came with a second correction from the St Ives pre-poll centre, which had put Kapterian in the hunt the Monday after the election with the addition of hitherto unreported votes to its tally, booting her by 440 votes. The issue this time was apparently a transpositional error in the record of preference flows, causing 11 votes to shift from Boele to Kapterian.
The rest of the movement largely resulted from ballots previously admitted to the count being deemed informal, a process that favoured Kapterian because only the third or so of the vote that was cast for excluded candidates was under consideration, around two-thirds of which went to Boele as preferences. Boele’s hope lies in the recount revisiting the two-thirds of the vote that was cast for the two leading candidates, where the same dynamic is likely to work against Kapterian, who has 38.1% of the primary vote to Boele’s 27.0%. If these votes are excluded in roughly the same proportions as those of the other candidates during the preference distribution (during which Labor lost 23 votes, the Greens 14, One Nation 8, independent Andy Yin 7 and the Libertarians 6), Kapterian will lose about 65 votes to Boele’s 45. The distinctions are fine enough that clearly nothing can be said with certainty – and even if Boele were to emerge with the slender lead implied, there would be a strong chance of a court finding enough routine irregularities to void the result and force a by-election.
In Calwell today, the preferences of independent Joseph Youhana were excluded, nearly 60% of them favouring independent Carly Moore, pushing her well clear of the Liberals into second place. Labor holds a lead of 36.6% to 25.6% that Moore needs to chase down with the successive exclusions of the Greens and the Liberals, on 16.7% and 21.2%, which scrutineers’ reports related through the media suggest is unlikely to happen. Also today, whatever lingering hope there may have been for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein was snuffed out by dramatic revisions that blew Tim Wilson’s lead out from 129 to 444.
12.30pm. My assessment of last evening was evidently too sanguine with respect to Nicolette Boele, whose margin is dropping fast – now down to five votes. Almost all of the correction so far today is down to the St Ives pre-poll centre – the same one whose result was dramatically revised in the Liberals’ favour in the early stages of the check count – where 11 votes have been shifted from Boele to Kapterian. The broader dynamic is that the distribution of Labor preferences and their strong flow to Boele means that votes successfully being contested on grounds of formality are mostly for her.
Thursday
The Calwell preference distribution turned up its first real surprise with the exclusion of independent Sam Moslih, with fully 61.3% of the distribution going to the Greens ahead of the other remaining contenders, namely Labor, Liberal and independents Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana. This pushes the Greens ahead of Youhana, who will be the next candidate excluded. Kevin Bonham suggests this reflects a strong influence of Moslih’s how-to-vote card and/or that of Muslim Votes Matter, which is good news for Labor because both favoured Basem Abdo over Moore. Moore presently holds a 17.5% to 15.3% lead over the Greens, which seems unlikely to be closed with the exclusion of Youhana, given he favoured Moore on his how-to-vote card and the general tendency of independent votes to favour other independents. Assuming that’s so, we are now likely to see Greens preferences push Moore ahead of the Liberals, whose preferences will then produce a final result between Labor and Moore. Moore will need around 67.5% of the preferences shortly to be distributed from Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals.
Proceedings today in Bradfield wore Nicolette Boele’s lead down from 41 votes to 28, with three added to Gisele Kapterian’s tally and ten subtracted from Boele’s. A source familiar with the matter in comments indicates we should now be a good way into the last phase, namely the distribution following the exclusion of Labor with only Boele and Kapterian left standing. If the apparent pattern of movement in favour of Kapterian looks unlikely to eliminate the margin altogether, it does remove whatever doubt there may have been that the it will fall inside the 100-vote threshold for an automatic recount.
Wednesday
Calwell proceeded today through to the eighth count, leaving a remaining field of Labor, Liberal, the Greens and three independents. Carly Moore’s lead over the other independents has widened, and seems likely to be maintained through the imminent exclusions of the Greens and two other independents, together with the elimination of the current 18.5% to 16.4% gap between the Liberal candidate and Moore. Between now and the final count, Moore would need two-thirds of the preferences to overtake Labor.
Today’s preference distributions added 15 to the informal counts in both Bradfield and Goldstein, respectively cutting Nicolette Boele’s lead by four to 41 and increasing Tim Wilson’s lead by one to 129.
Tuesday
End of counting. We’re now six counts into Calwell, with another six exclusions to come. Candidates accounting for 9.1% of the primary vote have now been excluded, with results that probably don’t tell us all that much. Next out will be Legalise Cannabis and One Nation, who will perhaps go relatively heavily to established parties rather than independents, followed by Sam Moslih, whose how-to-vote card had Labor higher than the remaining independents. Most likely, the issue will then be whether preferences from Joseph Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals favour Moore enough to get her ahead of Basem Abdo.
Revisions arising from the preference distribution in Bradfield today have added 11 to the informal vote tally, costing Gisele Kapterian eight votes and Nicolette Boele two, increasing the latter’s lead from 39 to 45.
5pm. The Goldstein count has ended with Tim Wilson up by 128 votes. The AEC relates that the votes still in the system as awaiting processing have Senate ballot papers only. The preference distribution will now proceed, to be followed only by an automatic recount if the margin comes in below 100, though the discretion remains to conduct one even if it doesn’t. Arguments have been made that the population has increased since the 100-vote threshold was established about 15 years ago.
2.30pm. The Australian Electoral Commission will helpfully be publishing updates from Calwell in the form of progress preference distribution results that will presumably be updated with each exclusion. These are a bit hard to read, so I offer the following summary below, showing us up to count four out of twelve. This looks promising for independent Carly Moore with respect to her prospects of making the final count, with 21.5% of the preferences from the first three exclusions having gone to her. However, the marginal nature of the candidates excluded so far is such that these figures are unlikely to offer much insight as to whether Labor will receive enough preferences to get from their 30.5% primary vote to 50% at the final count. If it is Moore who comes second, she will need about two-third of preferences (and Labor one-third) from all other candidates.
Monday
The last batches of votes in Bradfield kept true to the contest’s epic form, with independent Nicolette Boele taking the lead at the last to end the scrutiny 39 votes ahead. But it doesn’t end there: the formal distribution of preferences will proceed throughout this week, almost certainly to be followed by the recount that proceeds automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, so Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian has at least some hope that proceedings turn up errors substantial enough to reverse the result. Kapterian began the day 43 votes ahead, then moved to 50 ahead when absents broke 29-22 her way. Boele’s breakthrough came when postals broke fully 125-56 her way, consolidated when declaration pre-polls favoured her 111-90.
A recent recount precedent missing from yesterday’s summary was Clive Palmer’s win in Fairfax in 2013: at 36, his margin on the indicative two-candidate count was very close to Boele’s, but it was reduced to seven during the preference distribution and then inflated to 53 on the recount. An informed source in comments notes that recounts have become less prone to produce changes since the initial recheck became a routine part of the procedure in 1984, and court rulings established legal precedents about formality, most notably in relation to the seat of McEwen in 2007.
In Goldstein, Tim Wilson’s lead is down from 254 to 206 after postals broke 94-60 and absents 76-62 to Zoe Daniel. The AEC records 332 envelopes awaiting processing, of which Daniel would need two-thirds to land in her column to get to automatic recount territory.
Sunday
With the deadline for the arrival of late postals having passed on Friday, there are two seats that can still be regarded as in doubt, barring extraordinary late developments. One is Bradfield, where today’s counting will account for 260 declaration pre-polls, 104 postals and 66 absents (UPDATE: Outstanding postals revised up to 191). Some of these will be deemed invalid and a handful will be informal, but as many as 380 will be added to a tally on which independent Nicolette Boele trails Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian by 43 votes.
The counting of these votes will be followed immediately by a full distribution of preferences. Should the margin land inside 100, as seems extremely likely, this will be followed by an automatic recount. A review conducted for the Australian Electoral Commission in 2014 helpfully reviews the history of recounts, which provides at least some level of information on how much the dial was moved by 11 recounts going back to 1958 (see pages 24 and the very last page). A recount for Bass in 1998 was something of an outlier in increasing Labor’s winning margin from 16 to 78. Including the one recount conducted since – for Herbert in 2016, which increased Labor’s margin from 8 to 35 – a typical recount seems to make about 20 votes’ difference to the final result.
A recount would seem to be the only remaining chance for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, who trails Liberal candidate Tim Wilson by 206 votes with 332 remaining to be processed: 172 declaration pre-polls, 100 postals and 39 absents, plus 21 provisionals that may all be disallowed. Even getting to the 100-vote threshold requires stretching the arithmetic here, but the returning officer can use their discretion to require a recount even if the threshold isn’t reached.
The other unknown is the seat of Calwell, which I have not been making the effort to follow on a blow-by-blow basis, since the point at issue is that there’s no way of knowing which out of as many as four candidates will make the final count along with Labor. The only thing that can be said for sure is that Labor win the seat if it’s the Liberal candidate, but it’s quite a bit more likely to be an independent. Such questions can only be answered by a full distribution of preferences. With only 154 votes remaining to be processed, this will presumably begin later today.
Then there’s the Senate, where the pressing of the button on the final results is still as much as a fortnight away. I have a post below with my latest updated assessments on how that is likely to play out.
slackboy72 @ #398 Friday, May 23rd, 2025 – 3:44 pm
Dead heat in Ballarat in the Federal 1919 election probably, with the returning officer giving the casting vote. It had to go to a by-election afterward.
After that, the Upper House seat of Nunawading in the Victorian 1985 state election, which was also a tie. That probably counts more since that involved about 110,000 votes as opposed to Ballarat in 1919 which only had about 27,000 votes.
The AEC expects the Bradfield count to be wrapped up between 5pm and 6pm.
slackboy72 says:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 3:44 pm
What is the closest result we’ve ever seen?
********
I scrutineered the NunawaddingProvince (Vic) election in (1988?) where the RO drew the winner out of a hat after the recount was tied.
This is like a GRRM book series. I guess we are at almost at the end of Book 2, with Book 3 to start next week.
Thanks WB – Hawkes Lager time !
It’s a Tie!
Whew, screenshot of the occasion.
It probably won’t last but now it’s pretty much a coin flip.
Tight in Bradfield..
Job Share?
Trial by Combat?
Best of 3?
Rock Scissors Paper?
Snap Kirsdarke!
Nathan says:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 4:25 pm
Job Share?
Trial by Combat?
Best of 3?
Rock Scissors Paper?
中华人民共和国
Hunger Games
If the final count does actually turn out like that, it might actually come down to the casting vote of the returning officer, quickly followed by a challenge in the Court of Disputed Returns and a by-election.
But this seems to be at the “Distribution of Preferences” stage, which would be followed by the full recount.
So it’s down to the hairdresser gaffe vs the Dutton albatross around the neck.
A dead heat in Bradfield at the moment.
I’m no fan of Fletcher (ex Bradfield). Gifted a massive safe seat, did sod all for the locals, and then fled when it looked like the seat would go teal. One reason I’d love to see Kapterian get up is to demonstrate to pollies like Fletcher what can actually be achieved.
A 97-vote discrepancy in Tim Wilson’s favour has been discovered at the Oakleigh PPVC in Goldstein, increasing his margin to 264.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-214.htm
+1 now for Team Blue in Bradfield. WB’s guess of 0-5 is looking pretty good at this stage.
From a neutral point of view, a Kapterian victory would probably be preferable, if you want the Liberals to add a new female MP to their team who by all reports is well qualified and quite capable.
If not for that now infamous comment in the hairdressers, Boele would have clearly won this thing on election night, she’s had the head start all along and spent the last 3 years maintaining an electoral office of sorts and styling herself as “the shadow MP for Bradfield”.
Wow, a tie! I guess that means the Queen decides? What is she up to these days? I haven’t really been paying attention
Nathan – yes mate, from all reports Paul Fletcher was a pretty lazy MP and delayed his retirement announcement for far too long. Assuming Giselle Kapterian won by a few votes, she’d need to work bloody hard for the next 3 years in that electorate, there’d be no room for error whatsoever.
I live in neighbouring Berowra. A Teal candidate ran here too, and she got only 11% of the vote, despite putting her corflutes all over the electorate. This seat is very marginal now because Julian Leeser’s primary vote fell into the low 40s and the Labor candidate soaked up all the preferences from the Greens and the Teal. Leeser can be thankful for those postal votes, he won almost 57% of them.
What do we think the margin will need to be to avoid a by-election as I would be incredibly doubtful a margin of 5 on either side would be enough.
Can anyone explain how the AEC were unable to complete another exclusion in Calwell today?
Am I missing something?
Lib scrutineers > Teal scrutineers
Kapterian by 6
The Revisionist @ #420 Friday, May 23rd, 2025 – 5:06 pm
Basically now they’ve got around 15,000 votes for the Greens candidate to sort out, so that’s a lot on their plate.
William Bowesays:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 2:50 pm
The court could take it upon itself to determine the winner based on the information available to it…
– – – – – –
William, do you know (or can you speculate on) whether the court has the discretion to consider votes previously declared informal?
I’m think of ballots that might have Boele 1 and blanks for the rest, per her how to vote card. These express a clear intention even though they are invalid under full PV. Acknowledge this would allow optional PV by “stealth”.
The Revisionistsays:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 5:06 pm
Can anyone explain how the AEC were unable to complete another exclusion in Calwell today?
Am I missing something?
– – – – –
Fact-free speculation, but I have noted that every update to the count has seen minor changes to earlier votes (a few votes plus/minus for a few candidates – I think the biggest change was a 22 vote change to the original first round count applied between rounds 9 and 10).
This suggests that each time they go through a pile for redistribution they are finding minor counting errors to be rechecked and corrected, along with scrutineering. This must significantly slow down the process.
Yes — see here, especially the second half.
https://jade.io/article/79845
Tom Connell Sky News election analyst – pretty confident Labor will win Calwell, based on his information from Labor scrutineers. 70% of Greens preferences going to the ALP candidate.
@Democracy Sausage – thanks mate. I think Fletcher took his electorate for granted and was much much more interested in playing internal LNP politics, and as a result here we are in Bradfield. He made Bradfield a very fertile Teal hunting ground.
To think I thought Longman was stressful
Interesting explanation from William, which ties in with Dr KB’s comments. It will be the turn of the Libs next week, in the recount process, which will be subject to proportionately greater scrutiny of their votes.
Its not over yet. But barring some miracle (either way) this will be going to the Court of Disputed Returns.
davidwh – hey mate, have you drunk those XXXXs yet you were saving up to celebrate Terry Young’s win in Longman?
Nathan – very good observation that Paul Fletcher was more concerned with internal Liberal Party politics in Canberra than his own seat, that was always my impression living over the border(so to speak) in the seat of Berowra.
Kapterian ahead by 4, of course this thing is going to a recount. Imagine the huge pressure now on the AEC officials. And the loser most obviously will take this to the court of disputed returns.
I would be interested to know how many (if any) Boele votes were informal via numbering one square only. Given she left the others blank unlike 2022 when she had question marks in the other squares.
NSW has optional preferential voting for state elections, although surely more and more unfit for purpose as the non-major vote increases, meaning preferences are more influential.
In last NSW state election, here in Pittwater the Liberals were telling everyone via signage and handing out HTV cards that “you only need to number one square”. While true it’s of course irrelevant for Liberal voters, as the Lib was always going to finish first.
The gambit was to encourage Labor and Greens voters to exhaust their votes to deny preferences to Jacqui Scruby, the teal. It worked – at a glance more than enough Labor/Greens votes were exhausted, denying her the win.
The winning Lib has legal problems and resigned (still before the courts). Scruby won the by-election.
I have an idea the same gambit was run over lower north shore way too where the threat was an independent.
The non-teal independent in the next seat down the coast from here also won from the Liberals.
@Democracy Sausage – Yeah, my impression is that he fancied himself as a power broker. He was not.
Once again, let me say that this thread is a joy to be part of, some intelligent discussion without the silly stuff of the main thread(this Labor vs Greens war is rather tiresome that C@t conducts with Pegasus and Player1).
Nathan and Outsider and davidwh especially – thanks to you blokes.
One other point about Bradfield – 20% of Labor voters preferenced the Liberals over the Teal. That could be as decisive as hairdressergate.
If Labor are getting around 70% of the Greens exclusion in Calwell, that will put them on a 3CP share over 48%. Done and dusted if that’s the case, 2CP won’t be close.
…I must admit, I was hesitant to comment here given my “colour”, and worried it would all be a mindless partisan shouting match. I’ve really enjoyed the discussion, learned heaps, and would be more than happy to catchup for bevies. So thanks! This is what a political discussion should be.
Yes it has been an enjoyable discussion Democracy Sausage. Thanks back to you, Up North et al.
Democracy Sausage @ #435 Friday, May 23rd, 2025 – 5:45 pm
Please keep such comments to the open thread.
So is Bradfield done now and off to a recount from Monday ?
Democracy – I think Hairdressergate could have led to such a high pref flow from Lab to Lib
davidwh says:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 5:57 pm
Yes it has been an enjoyable discussion Democracy Sausage. Thanks back to you, Up North et al.
中华人民共和国
Same davidwh and Democracy Sausage. Not over yet but great to see democracy in action. Never know we might be all at again sooner rather than later in Bradfield.
PS. How was the XXXX
Upnorth the XXXX was enjoyable. However just back from a quick camping trip which included towing the van around the Mount Panarama circuit which was very cool.
davidwh says:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 6:12 pm
Upnorth the XXXX was enjoyable. However just back from a quick camping trip which included towing the van around the Mount Panarama circuit which was very cool.
中华人民共和国
Very very nice cobber. Well done. I’ll bring that Beer Lao down to Brisvegas next I’m down and we might share a coldie and a laugh. Keep safe old mate.
I hear the distribution of preferences in Bradfield is now done and Gisele Kapterian is the provisional winner by 6 votes.
Democracy Sausage at 5.47 pm
Lots of Labor voters preferencing Kapterian was clearly a decisive factor.
Antony Green on Bradfield.
https://youtu.be/nR-Brm6Sv14?si=qUzJeEnxYdm4KicE
“ Dr Doolittle says:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 6:36 pm
Democracy Sausage at 5.47 pm
Lots of Labor voters preferencing Kapterian was clearly a decisive factor.”
_______
I not sure that a 20% ‘Labor voter’ preference to the Libs over the Teal qualifies as ‘lots’. Especially when the Labor voter is artificially suppressed by ‘tactical voting’ for the teal to start with. I also note that there ARE a considerable amount of labor voters who prefer to give their second preference to a ‘party of government’ because the quite like the two party system (as much as might blow the minds of the likes of Pegarex and P1).
@Democracy Sausage
I feel that Tina Brown (the C200-funded independent in Berowra) did admirably well to pull 11.4% primary on her first attempt. She peeled beaucoup votes from the Greens candidate and Leeser. That said, I think she (or any other independent) needs Boele to take Bradfield this time to make it worth trying again.
In 2022, I was really satisfied to see the Lib primary vote in Berowra go under 50% for the first time since 1969. At that point, I couldn’t envisage the seat ever going to Labor but I thought it might turn Green or teal circa 2031. It’s now feasible that Labor could be competitive in 2027-28 . . . amazing.
Andrew_Earlwood at 6.43 pm
About 20% of the Labor vote in Bradfield is over 4,500 votes. In the context of an extremely close result that is clearly lots.
Even in Goldstein the number of either Labor or Greens voters who preferred Wilson over a good woman is greater than the winning margin.