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Saturday
Tim Wilson has finished the preference distribution in Goldstein 260 votes ahead of Zoe Daniel, after a series of late revisions that drove first drove his lead up yesterday from 129 to 444, before today cutting it back to 170 and then settling on the final margin. These convulsions presumably loom large in the request Daniel has submitted for a recount, but experience suggests the AEC will stand by the 100-vote threshold it set in place in 2008.
Friday
Yet another twist in the saga of Bradfield, which ended with Gisele Kapterian taking the lead at the last and finishing the scrutiny with an eight-vote lead over Nicolette Boele. The Australian Electoral Commission promptly confirmed that this would be subject to a recount, as it does automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, which will begin on Monday and is “expected to take up to two weeks”. Twenty-two out of Kapterian’s 48-vote gain during the preference distribution came with a second correction from the St Ives pre-poll centre, which had put Kapterian in the hunt the Monday after the election with the addition of hitherto unreported votes to its tally, booting her by 440 votes. The issue this time was apparently a transpositional error in the record of preference flows, causing 11 votes to shift from Boele to Kapterian.
The rest of the movement largely resulted from ballots previously admitted to the count being deemed informal, a process that favoured Kapterian because only the third or so of the vote that was cast for excluded candidates was under consideration, around two-thirds of which went to Boele as preferences. Boele’s hope lies in the recount revisiting the two-thirds of the vote that was cast for the two leading candidates, where the same dynamic is likely to work against Kapterian, who has 38.1% of the primary vote to Boele’s 27.0%. If these votes are excluded in roughly the same proportions as those of the other candidates during the preference distribution (during which Labor lost 23 votes, the Greens 14, One Nation 8, independent Andy Yin 7 and the Libertarians 6), Kapterian will lose about 65 votes to Boele’s 45. The distinctions are fine enough that clearly nothing can be said with certainty – and even if Boele were to emerge with the slender lead implied, there would be a strong chance of a court finding enough routine irregularities to void the result and force a by-election.
In Calwell today, the preferences of independent Joseph Youhana were excluded, nearly 60% of them favouring independent Carly Moore, pushing her well clear of the Liberals into second place. Labor holds a lead of 36.6% to 25.6% that Moore needs to chase down with the successive exclusions of the Greens and the Liberals, on 16.7% and 21.2%, which scrutineers’ reports related through the media suggest is unlikely to happen. Also today, whatever lingering hope there may have been for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein was snuffed out by dramatic revisions that blew Tim Wilson’s lead out from 129 to 444.
12.30pm. My assessment of last evening was evidently too sanguine with respect to Nicolette Boele, whose margin is dropping fast – now down to five votes. Almost all of the correction so far today is down to the St Ives pre-poll centre – the same one whose result was dramatically revised in the Liberals’ favour in the early stages of the check count – where 11 votes have been shifted from Boele to Kapterian. The broader dynamic is that the distribution of Labor preferences and their strong flow to Boele means that votes successfully being contested on grounds of formality are mostly for her.
Thursday
The Calwell preference distribution turned up its first real surprise with the exclusion of independent Sam Moslih, with fully 61.3% of the distribution going to the Greens ahead of the other remaining contenders, namely Labor, Liberal and independents Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana. This pushes the Greens ahead of Youhana, who will be the next candidate excluded. Kevin Bonham suggests this reflects a strong influence of Moslih’s how-to-vote card and/or that of Muslim Votes Matter, which is good news for Labor because both favoured Basem Abdo over Moore. Moore presently holds a 17.5% to 15.3% lead over the Greens, which seems unlikely to be closed with the exclusion of Youhana, given he favoured Moore on his how-to-vote card and the general tendency of independent votes to favour other independents. Assuming that’s so, we are now likely to see Greens preferences push Moore ahead of the Liberals, whose preferences will then produce a final result between Labor and Moore. Moore will need around 67.5% of the preferences shortly to be distributed from Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals.
Proceedings today in Bradfield wore Nicolette Boele’s lead down from 41 votes to 28, with three added to Gisele Kapterian’s tally and ten subtracted from Boele’s. A source familiar with the matter in comments indicates we should now be a good way into the last phase, namely the distribution following the exclusion of Labor with only Boele and Kapterian left standing. If the apparent pattern of movement in favour of Kapterian looks unlikely to eliminate the margin altogether, it does remove whatever doubt there may have been that the it will fall inside the 100-vote threshold for an automatic recount.
Wednesday
Calwell proceeded today through to the eighth count, leaving a remaining field of Labor, Liberal, the Greens and three independents. Carly Moore’s lead over the other independents has widened, and seems likely to be maintained through the imminent exclusions of the Greens and two other independents, together with the elimination of the current 18.5% to 16.4% gap between the Liberal candidate and Moore. Between now and the final count, Moore would need two-thirds of the preferences to overtake Labor.
Today’s preference distributions added 15 to the informal counts in both Bradfield and Goldstein, respectively cutting Nicolette Boele’s lead by four to 41 and increasing Tim Wilson’s lead by one to 129.
Tuesday
End of counting. We’re now six counts into Calwell, with another six exclusions to come. Candidates accounting for 9.1% of the primary vote have now been excluded, with results that probably don’t tell us all that much. Next out will be Legalise Cannabis and One Nation, who will perhaps go relatively heavily to established parties rather than independents, followed by Sam Moslih, whose how-to-vote card had Labor higher than the remaining independents. Most likely, the issue will then be whether preferences from Joseph Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals favour Moore enough to get her ahead of Basem Abdo.
Revisions arising from the preference distribution in Bradfield today have added 11 to the informal vote tally, costing Gisele Kapterian eight votes and Nicolette Boele two, increasing the latter’s lead from 39 to 45.
5pm. The Goldstein count has ended with Tim Wilson up by 128 votes. The AEC relates that the votes still in the system as awaiting processing have Senate ballot papers only. The preference distribution will now proceed, to be followed only by an automatic recount if the margin comes in below 100, though the discretion remains to conduct one even if it doesn’t. Arguments have been made that the population has increased since the 100-vote threshold was established about 15 years ago.
2.30pm. The Australian Electoral Commission will helpfully be publishing updates from Calwell in the form of progress preference distribution results that will presumably be updated with each exclusion. These are a bit hard to read, so I offer the following summary below, showing us up to count four out of twelve. This looks promising for independent Carly Moore with respect to her prospects of making the final count, with 21.5% of the preferences from the first three exclusions having gone to her. However, the marginal nature of the candidates excluded so far is such that these figures are unlikely to offer much insight as to whether Labor will receive enough preferences to get from their 30.5% primary vote to 50% at the final count. If it is Moore who comes second, she will need about two-third of preferences (and Labor one-third) from all other candidates.
Monday
The last batches of votes in Bradfield kept true to the contest’s epic form, with independent Nicolette Boele taking the lead at the last to end the scrutiny 39 votes ahead. But it doesn’t end there: the formal distribution of preferences will proceed throughout this week, almost certainly to be followed by the recount that proceeds automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, so Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian has at least some hope that proceedings turn up errors substantial enough to reverse the result. Kapterian began the day 43 votes ahead, then moved to 50 ahead when absents broke 29-22 her way. Boele’s breakthrough came when postals broke fully 125-56 her way, consolidated when declaration pre-polls favoured her 111-90.
A recent recount precedent missing from yesterday’s summary was Clive Palmer’s win in Fairfax in 2013: at 36, his margin on the indicative two-candidate count was very close to Boele’s, but it was reduced to seven during the preference distribution and then inflated to 53 on the recount. An informed source in comments notes that recounts have become less prone to produce changes since the initial recheck became a routine part of the procedure in 1984, and court rulings established legal precedents about formality, most notably in relation to the seat of McEwen in 2007.
In Goldstein, Tim Wilson’s lead is down from 254 to 206 after postals broke 94-60 and absents 76-62 to Zoe Daniel. The AEC records 332 envelopes awaiting processing, of which Daniel would need two-thirds to land in her column to get to automatic recount territory.
Sunday
With the deadline for the arrival of late postals having passed on Friday, there are two seats that can still be regarded as in doubt, barring extraordinary late developments. One is Bradfield, where today’s counting will account for 260 declaration pre-polls, 104 postals and 66 absents (UPDATE: Outstanding postals revised up to 191). Some of these will be deemed invalid and a handful will be informal, but as many as 380 will be added to a tally on which independent Nicolette Boele trails Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian by 43 votes.
The counting of these votes will be followed immediately by a full distribution of preferences. Should the margin land inside 100, as seems extremely likely, this will be followed by an automatic recount. A review conducted for the Australian Electoral Commission in 2014 helpfully reviews the history of recounts, which provides at least some level of information on how much the dial was moved by 11 recounts going back to 1958 (see pages 24 and the very last page). A recount for Bass in 1998 was something of an outlier in increasing Labor’s winning margin from 16 to 78. Including the one recount conducted since – for Herbert in 2016, which increased Labor’s margin from 8 to 35 – a typical recount seems to make about 20 votes’ difference to the final result.
A recount would seem to be the only remaining chance for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, who trails Liberal candidate Tim Wilson by 206 votes with 332 remaining to be processed: 172 declaration pre-polls, 100 postals and 39 absents, plus 21 provisionals that may all be disallowed. Even getting to the 100-vote threshold requires stretching the arithmetic here, but the returning officer can use their discretion to require a recount even if the threshold isn’t reached.
The other unknown is the seat of Calwell, which I have not been making the effort to follow on a blow-by-blow basis, since the point at issue is that there’s no way of knowing which out of as many as four candidates will make the final count along with Labor. The only thing that can be said for sure is that Labor win the seat if it’s the Liberal candidate, but it’s quite a bit more likely to be an independent. Such questions can only be answered by a full distribution of preferences. With only 154 votes remaining to be processed, this will presumably begin later today.
Then there’s the Senate, where the pressing of the button on the final results is still as much as a fortnight away. I have a post below with my latest updated assessments on how that is likely to play out.
More clarity on Bradfield today, you’d assume, maybe Boele’s lead can get beyond 50 votes? The Liberals of course will demand a recount and then maybe take it to the court of disputed returns.
Alexandra Smith in today’s Nine Papers says that the Liberals are mad at Paul Fletcher for delaying his retirement announcement so long, in other words not giving Giselle Kapterian enough time to campaign in the seat, whereas Nicolette Boele had 3 years to keep up her profile in Bradfield. Boele would have won a clear victory if that comment at the hairdressers had never come to light.
Hard Being Greensays:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 7:48 am
So will we land on #28in25 or #29in25 ?
Following the Calwell count with interest and hoping the Greens move into 4th off the back of Legalise Cannabis preferences and roll on to win it from there. An unexpected miracle lol
While it would be nice to chalk up another independent win it’s interesting the Greens had Moore after Labor on their HTV, Youhana above both. A Palestinian candidate in Abdo winning could be a good outcome all things considered or else Youhana or Moore on Liberal preferences
Yes, the Greens will win Calwell coming off 8.3% of the primary vote and hoover up all of the conservative preferences before anyone else. Unexpected miracle is an understatement. Even though it is more likely that Labor will win, either of the two higher polling Independents are still a possibility, and the How to Vote card recommendations, as has been oft said in this space, are relatively redundant when a lot of voters don’t receive the cards, let along choose to follow them.
The other factor here is the very high informal vote of over 10% which doesn’t help democracy, but I cannot tell who it will ultimately help from the wide variety of candidates – does anyone have any intel who is missing out here? Do we need savings provisions for just 1s like in SA State Elections or where people do their best but can’t count 1 to 13 or whatever in correct order?
Speaking of candidates, an amazing 13 of them, and what has to be the most multicultural field I can ever recall in any Federal election – it is heartening to see the major parties preselecting people of colour for safe and marginal seats.
As for Mr Abdo, as a person of Palestinian heritage, he will feel his people are being well looked after by the ALP, and, if elected, he will find his voice will be taken seriously by the ALP hierarchy as they continue to champion the wellbeing of the Palestinian people.
Hope an Independent wins.
Seventh exclusion published by the AEC in Calwell. Abdo 32.15%, Moore 14.7%, Youhana 12.05%.
If Mr Youhana ends up winning, which is certainly still possible, would this be the first time that someone who had fewer 1st preference votes than the informals had won a seat?
You can see Calwell preference distribution progress here.. 3 pages to read
https://www.aec.gov.au/election/fe25/calwell-dop.htm
Stephen D Morey @ #254 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 1:29 pm
Yes, in the Lower House at least.
I suspect the Labor candidate Abdo will be #94 for Labor.
Equaling the JWH record of 1996, and fully 10 higher than Bob Hawkes 1983 landslide.
Minor moves in Bradfield, Boele still up by 43
Stephen D Morey says:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 1:29 pm
If Mr Youhana ends up winning, which is certainly still possible, would this be the first time that someone who had fewer 1st preference votes than the informals had won a seat?
中华人民共和国
In the then Queensland State Seat of Townsville West, then ALP Opposition Leader, Perc Tucker, lost the seat despite getting 42.8% of the Primary vote. The National Partys’ Max Hooper won the seat from third position on 13.3% primary.
He got up on Queensland Labor Party, Liberal and a second National Party candidates’ preferences.
As for Federal numbers I’m unsure.
7 left in Calwell. Next out on current count
One Nation
Moslih
GVIC
Youhana (2,500 behind Moore at this point)
Moore (2,100 behind Lib at this point)
Liberal
Labor
Hemp was where the Greens had to start their snowball and while it was their strongest flow so far they didn’t really gain much ground. Hemp then donkey seems to have been theticket (unless Moore had some very pro-Hemp policies). ON next won’t help them, and they’d need something extraordinary from Moslih when really you’d expect Youhana to do the best from that exclusion.
Labor keep picking up decent chunks from left and right exclusions, looking hard for anyone to bridge that gap with preferences spreading so wide.
>>>>>>
Labor keep picking up decent chunks from left and right exclusions, looking hard for anyone to bridge that gap with preferences spreading so wide.
>>>>>
Moore is also gathering prefs at every exclusion.
Molish and Green will be instructive to see if they skew or continue to spray.
Moore has gained 2.8% to Labor’s 2.3%, needs to do much better to make up an 18% deficit. Particularly if the strong Hemp and ToP flows were due to top of ticket advantage.
It’s an odd feature of the current count system that we know that Ghani is a completely dead candidate walking and any votes going to him are irrelevant to the outcome should he make the top two. In theory it should be interesting to see if he pulls enough One Nation preferences to stay abreast of the independents. In practice, that just means Labor wins.
ETA: While we’re in the category of “strictly academic oddities,” Blaxland still doesn’t have a 2CP. The Libs were behind an independent for some time but their candidate has been mounting a Zoe Daniel-esque charge on declaration votes and at last count was within 100 votes of making the top two, and with 1700 votes still to be added to the 3CP there, looks likely to overhaul into second place.
Paul Thomas @ #264 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 3:08 pm
An interesting thing to think about is that if this vote was based on the Queensland 1891-1941 Contingency Voting system, basically it would come down to Abdo for Labor and Ghani for the Liberals and all other candidates would be eliminated and have their second choice go to either of them.
The Calwell count might provide some fun with numbers, to test pref flows on the basis of proximity on the ballot paper.
You see this discussed at the senate level, but I have no idea if the significance has been tested.
I wonder if there is an ‘overload’ factor pushing the prefs to spray – a punter declining all HTVs on their way into a booth may well preference in an unpredictable way.
But a punter accepting all HTVs, studying them (yes, punters do this) and trying to digest what they think about the 10 sheets of paper in their hands may, in confusion or for expediency, just wing it.
sprocket_ says:
I suspect the Labor candidate Abdo will be #94 for Labor.
Equaling the JWH record of 1996, and fully 10 higher than Bob Hawkes 1983 landslide.
——-
I like that fact that Kevin 07 won 83 seats, a nod back to Hawkie’s win in 1983.
I guess I’m easily amused.
Hawke had a smaller Parliament. He won 60% of seats, Albo will be 62-63% of seats if my calculations are correct so still better…just.
Sadly, it will be a lower % than Howard in 1996 given a smaller Parliament…but only by a whisker.
Eighth throw in Calwell.
Abdo 33.39.
Moore 16.42
Youhana 13.21
Reckon that might be stumps for the day.
Nicko says:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 4:29 pm
Sadly, it will be a lower % than Howard in 1996 given a smaller Parliament…but only by a whisker.
中华人民共和国
But the oppositions percentage of seats will be a lot smaller! Especially after yesterday.
Upnorth @ #268 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 4:42 pm
It’s looking like Samim Mosleh (IND) will be the next excluded candidate, with 7,405 votes (8.24%) to distribute. That should be a telling step in how this will go.
In 1983 and 1996 the opposition was reduced to 50 and 49 seats respectively. That’s still more than today’s opposition even with the larger parliament. And that’s even if today’s opposition were still a coalition.
Edit : The parliament in 1996 was only two seats smaller than today, but even so.
Upnorthsays:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 4:42 pm
Eighth throw in Calwell.
Abdo 33.39.
Moore 16.42
Youhana 13.21
Reckon that might be stumps for the day.
—————–
Upnorth the key is the lib. what is their current vote?
Kirsdarke — Greens exclusion is the real nailbiter I think. Since they directed to Youhana first, and Greens voters tend to follow HTVs more, it’s up in the air. Right now I have no guess on who wins, but Libs won’t be second imo.
When I link to the AEC site I get an old distribution of preferences – the sixth throw of preferences. What’s going on?
barney says:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 4:55 pm
Upnorthsays:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 4:42 pm
Eighth throw in Calwell.
Abdo 33.39.
Moore 16.42
Youhana 13.21
Reckon that might be stumps for the day.
—————–
Upnorth the key is the lib. what is their current vote?
中华人民共和国
18.53% cobber – 16648 votes currently.
aweirdnerd (she/her) says:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 4:56 pm
Kirsdarke — Greens exclusion is the real nailbiter I think. Since they directed to Youhana first, and Greens voters tend to follow HTVs more, it’s up in the air. Right now I have no guess on who wins, but Libs won’t be second imo.
**********
Greens and ALP voters normally follow the HtV at around 80-85% on 2pp throws. But about 20 to 25% of that are, anecdotally from scrutineers (other elections over time, not Calwell this time) variations on a theme – reaching the intended candidate in a Lib-ALP or Lib-Green 2pp but choosing their own order in getting there. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a significant proportion of Greens votes that go directly to Abdo. We will know soon.
Edit: and that’s before the odds and sods the Greens have collected from other candidates. 325 preferences from One Nation!
thanks upnorth
The One Nation exclusion is interesting..
Moore 1541
Mosli 325
Youhana 1042
Green 325
Lib 1255
Lab 497
Talk about spraying everywhere – Moore benefited from the donkey it would seem.
But the Calwell One Nation voters mustn’t have got the memo about Greens and Labor. And the Liberal only getting 25.18% of One Nation preferences is somewhat short of the 70-80% being touted before the election by that clown from JWS Research.
I’m going to call Calwell for one of the two Independents – Moore or Youhana.
If Moore can stay above Youhana after Greens’ exclusion, she will go into 2nd over Libs, and regardless of whether Youhana or Libs excluded next, both of them will preference her above Labor without Labor reaching 50%+1.
If Youhana knocks Moore into 4th in the 4CP, then her preferences will split closely between Youhana and Labor and Libs will finish 3rd. Their preferences will go overwhelmingly to Youhana over ALP, but it will be a close thing, I’m estimating that it will be 400 votes in it at the end.
My modelling is showing ALP, then Moore, then Youhana then Libs finishing 4th by 120 votes, so it’s tight.
Then again, it’s all tight.
andrewmck — that’s a fair point, especially as I’m one of those voters. I usually take HTVs as basically a ranked endorsement, which I combine with my own thoughts. One nation –> Greens is bonkers though.
I wonder whether:
Greens –> Youhana –> Moore –> Labor
or
Greens –> Labor –> Youhana –> Moore
will be a more common diversion?
Phil Coorey bought the spin.. this on April 29. I think Calwell fits the demographic picture here.
Seat-by-seat polling by JWS Research backs the internal findings of both major parties that a certain demographic of seats – outer suburban, mortgage-belt electorates with blue-collar workforces, substantial commute times, high cost-of-living sensitivities, and, in some cases, high crime rates – are behaving differently to the rest of the electorate.
In such seats, One Nation, plus other minor parties on the right, such as Family First and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, are collectively polling above 10 per cent.
Those swinging to such parties include disaffected Labor voters who are then directing preferences to the Liberal Party.
Consequently, between 80 per cent and 90 per cent of right-of-centre preferences are flowing to the Coalition, whereas the national average at the last election was about two thirds.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-counts-on-one-nation-preferences-to-narrow-gap-20250428-p5lun8
aw
I wonder whether:
Greens –> Youhana –> Moore –> Labor
or
Greens –> Labor –> Youhana –> Moore
will be a more common diversion?
Greens should go 80% to Labor you would think, which effectively exhausts those votes.
Antony Green has a nice chart..
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-calwell-distribution-of-preferences/
aweirdnerd (she/her)says:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 5:48 pm
andrewmck — that’s a fair point, especially as I’m one of those voters. I usually take HTVs as basically a ranked endorsement, which I combine with my own thoughts. One nation –> Greens is bonkers though.
– – – – –
Except that a third of ON prefs (1609 out of 4985) are derived from other candidates. EG – HMP sent 20+% to GVIC and 474 prefs to ON. If those HMP->ON votes then flowed heavily to GVIC, thats probably well over 100 of the 325 ON->GVIC. Not really bonkers at all (a little perverse, for sure).
sprocket_ @ #282 Wednesday, May 21st, 2025 – 6:01 pm
I have to agree that is a really good chart of the Preferential vote process in Calwell.
I’m very fond of the “alluvial diagrams” on Wikipedia articles relating to the 2022 election results.
Boele is down to 41 vote lead says abc now.
Yes, the wikipedia alluvial diagrams are glorious.
It was put to Kevin Bonham and he agreed that Boele is more likely to lose votes on exclusion of Greens and (presumably) Labor, as more of those votes are splitting to her.
Yin (IND) and Greens preferences were distributed today – it is a crying shame the updates aren’t being provided for Bradfield as for Calwell. There are two seats the media organizations still have “In doubt” , yet the AEC is publishing updates upon each exclusion for only one of them…
Carly Moore got more One Nation preferences than Ghani did, lol. He’s beyond cooked, might not even make the top 3 at this point.
This is inexplicable if looking at things strictly on a right-left political spectrum, but very explicable if one proceeds from the assumption that most ON voters are gutter racists.
I’m not sure that posters calling ordinary non-nerdy voters “gutter racists” carte blanche speaks to better character than being one of said “gutter racists”.
I sincerely apologize to any racists whose feelings may have been hurt by my earlier comments. The farm takes up most of the day, so I’m afraid I have not been able to devote myself full-time to the ol’ racism.
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 5:49 pm
Phil Coorey bought the spin.. this on April 29. I think Calwell fits the demographic picture here.
Seat-by-seat polling by JWS Research backs the internal findings of both major parties that a certain demographic of seats – outer suburban, mortgage-belt electorates with blue-collar workforces, substantial commute times, high cost-of-living sensitivities, and, in some cases, high crime rates – are behaving differently to the rest of the electorate.
In such seats, One Nation, plus other minor parties on the right, such as Family First and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, are collectively polling above 10 per cent.
Those swinging to such parties include disaffected Labor voters who are then directing preferences to the Liberal Party.
Consequently, between 80 per cent and 90 per cent of right-of-centre preferences are flowing to the Coalition, whereas the national average at the last election was about two thirds.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-counts-on-one-nation-preferences-to-narrow-gap-20250428-p5lun8
”
Coorey wanted to buy something which he thought will not benefit ALP.
It’s pretty normal for independents (of any kind) to do well out of One Nation preferences. From past experience a significant proportion of One Nation voters put the two majors last and second last.
From Kevin Bonham last night on Calwell:
“7:50 It is perhaps of note that Paul Erikson implied today that he was confident that Labor would win the seat. “
Is Tim Wilson’s lead of 131 votes in Goldstein the final provisional 2pp result before the formal distribution of preferences?
Boele vote lead shrinking slowly now 38 votes .
ShowsOn says:
Thursday, May 22, 2025 at 11:05 am
Is Tim Wilson’s lead of 131 votes in Goldstein the final provisional 2pp result before the formal distribution of preferences?
No. The formal preference distribution (and checking) is about half way done. You can check progress here by filtering the polling place returns by date.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-214.htm
Boele now leading by 39. Rechecking swings and rounabouts.
BTSays says:
Thursday, May 22, 2025 at 1:14 am
I’m not sure that posters calling ordinary non-nerdy voters “gutter racists” carte blanche speaks to better character than being one of said “gutter racists”.
—–
First of all, they said “if one proceeds from the assumption that most ON voters are gutter racists” – key terms here are “from the assumption” and “most”. The former implies that it’s not an accusation, but a starting point for an analysis. The latter implies that some ON voters may simply be misled, etc – it reasonably recognises that not every ON voter is racist.
Meanwhile, ON’s history, along with their policy on immigration, and PH’s and MR’s own words on various topics, establishes their views in the field of racism quite clearly, while other parties provide comparable platforms without the racism. So it’s very easy to conclude, in combination, that most voters who choose ON over other options are doing so because of racism.
…
But anyway, back to talking about the counting. While it is true that PHON preferences going to Moore over other options is probably at least partially about being at the top of the ballot, I’d also like to point out that the Liberals were at the bottom, and it’s just as easily to number bottom-to-top.
Also noteworthy is that about 1/3rd of PHON votes at count 7 came from excluded candidates. One of the biggest sources of flow to PHON came from ToP, but ToP voters are noticeably more likely to put independents over majors. Also true of other IND voters. And looking at flows to Moore, she got noticeably more from FFP than PHON did, too.
Once you factor these other flows in, I suspect PHON preferences probably didn’t flow as strongly to Moore as it seems. What’s more interesting to note is that PHON HTV had Youhana above Liberals and Moore below, so the overall flows to these three are reversed compared with HTV.
Also interesting – almost all of the flows on exclusions have gotten 20+% flow to Moore. One of the exceptions, ToP, was only a little low (18.8%), with PHON getting unusually large flow from ToP (23.72%, where the highest otherwise was 17.85% from FFP exclusion, and only one other flow being above 10% (from LCP… likely due to PHON being pro-medical-cannabis)).
The other exception, however, was the CEC exclusion, which saw Labor’s best flow at 26.92%, where their highest otherwise has been 18.34% with LCP’s exclusion. This is particularly interesting, given that CEC’s HTV had Labor in 12th, second last above Liberals. CEC’s votes only went up about 10% of its PV before it was excluded, so it’s not like this is because of flow-through preferences. For whatever reason, CEC voters were favouring Labor in higher numbers than you’d expect. And while the CEC’s base movement is more left- than right-wing, it’s still an interesting result.
….
One of the big question marks is what happens with the Moslih exclusion (which should be happening any time now). Moslih’s HTV had Greens in 3rd (after CEC, which has been excluded). While I’d imagine not many voters got his HTV card, it’s still indicative of likely alignments. Moslih currently has 7405 votes. The Greens (5th) are currently 2692 behind Youhana (4th).
For the Greens to survive the next exclusion, they’d need to get, at minimum, 36.36% of the flows from the Moslih exclusion, and that’s if Youhana got literally none. Given Youhana has gotten about 15.5% of preference flows so far, with the median being 6.04% and the minimum being 5.58%, you’d have to think Youhana couldn’t get less than 5% of flows when Moslih is excluded. So Greens would realistically need more than 40% of the flows to stay in the race. Possible, but very unlikely.
In that very unlikely case, they’d then need to chase Moore or Libs (probably Libs) to stay in the race on the next count. The challenge at this point lies in the Youhana HTV, which puts Moore above Greens. In the hypothetical that both Youhana and Libs got 0% flow from the Moslih exclusion, Greens would need 7470 votes from the combined exclusions of Moslih and Youhana. For this, they’d need 47.27% of flows from the two combined. Factor in the flow to the Libs (which hasn’t been below 4% at any exclusion), and the Greens now need flow of more than 50% from Moslih and Youhana. In the unlikely event that Moore got no flow from either, the Greens would still need more than 35%, and Moore’s worst flow so far was just under 10%… and Youhana has Moore above Greens. So I can’t see Greens getting past Moore at this point even in the most extreme case.
The more likely case is that Greens go out at count 10, before Youhana. The question, now, is whether Youhana can get past the Liberals, to make it Labor vs 2 IND at the 3CP. To get a reasonable ballpark, I’m going to assume the following flows from Moslih and Greens (Moslih-to-Greens will probably be exaggerated, but Greens will be excluded anyway)…
Moslih: 30% Greens, 25% ALP (next on HTV after Greens among remaining), 25% Youhana, 15% Moore, 5% Liberals
Greens: 40% Youhana, 30% Moore, 25% ALP, 5% Liberals
This spread, which seems feasible given Moslih HTV put Libs in 10th with only FFP, ToP, and PHON below, would put Youhana ahead of the Liberals by about 700 votes. So I’d call Youhana making it into the 3CP count plausible.
And if he does, it’s really hard to see what happens. Liberals put Youhana>Moore>ALP on their HTV. The gap I have for Youhana to Moore is only 1000 votes, which would be less than 6% of the Liberals’ vote on exclusion. I could certainly see Liberal flows looking something like 45% to Youhana, 37% to Moore, 18% to ALP. This would get Youhana into the 2CP.
From there, for Youhana to win, he’d need to get about 74% of the flows from Moore. Achievable, but certainly non-trivial. Even if you rescaled to have Labor only get 10% of flows from the Lib exclusion, Youhana would still need around 70% of the flows from Moore. Indeed, even if you assumed Youhana got 60% from the Lib exclusion, and Labor got none, you’d still need more than 60% of the flow from Moore to go to Youhana.
Now, Moore did have Youhana in position 2 on her HTV, and had Labor in dead last. So it’s not outside of the realm of possibility. But unlikely.
The bigger issue, as I see it, is that I had to assume Youhana would get 10% more than Moore on both Moslih’s and the Greens’ exclusions. I don’t see this happening – while Youhana was put above Moore on the HTV for both, you also need to factor in the 3000 or so votes that flowed to Moslih and Greens from other candidates, and since Moore got almost twice as much flow as Youhana from those, it’s likely a safe bet that she’ll manage to do well enough to hold onto the 2CP position, although it could potentially be quite close.
I’d say Moore has a better shot than Youhana, if only due to being nearly 3000 votes ahead of Youhana at the current count, which reduces the needed flows. My instinct is that the final run will be Labor vs Moore, and I think it could be a very close final 2CP, assuming strong flows to Moore over Labor.