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Saturday
Tim Wilson has finished the preference distribution in Goldstein 260 votes ahead of Zoe Daniel, after a series of late revisions that drove first drove his lead up yesterday from 129 to 444, before today cutting it back to 170 and then settling on the final margin. These convulsions presumably loom large in the request Daniel has submitted for a recount, but experience suggests the AEC will stand by the 100-vote threshold it set in place in 2008.
Friday
Yet another twist in the saga of Bradfield, which ended with Gisele Kapterian taking the lead at the last and finishing the scrutiny with an eight-vote lead over Nicolette Boele. The Australian Electoral Commission promptly confirmed that this would be subject to a recount, as it does automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, which will begin on Monday and is “expected to take up to two weeks”. Twenty-two out of Kapterian’s 48-vote gain during the preference distribution came with a second correction from the St Ives pre-poll centre, which had put Kapterian in the hunt the Monday after the election with the addition of hitherto unreported votes to its tally, booting her by 440 votes. The issue this time was apparently a transpositional error in the record of preference flows, causing 11 votes to shift from Boele to Kapterian.
The rest of the movement largely resulted from ballots previously admitted to the count being deemed informal, a process that favoured Kapterian because only the third or so of the vote that was cast for excluded candidates was under consideration, around two-thirds of which went to Boele as preferences. Boele’s hope lies in the recount revisiting the two-thirds of the vote that was cast for the two leading candidates, where the same dynamic is likely to work against Kapterian, who has 38.1% of the primary vote to Boele’s 27.0%. If these votes are excluded in roughly the same proportions as those of the other candidates during the preference distribution (during which Labor lost 23 votes, the Greens 14, One Nation 8, independent Andy Yin 7 and the Libertarians 6), Kapterian will lose about 65 votes to Boele’s 45. The distinctions are fine enough that clearly nothing can be said with certainty – and even if Boele were to emerge with the slender lead implied, there would be a strong chance of a court finding enough routine irregularities to void the result and force a by-election.
In Calwell today, the preferences of independent Joseph Youhana were excluded, nearly 60% of them favouring independent Carly Moore, pushing her well clear of the Liberals into second place. Labor holds a lead of 36.6% to 25.6% that Moore needs to chase down with the successive exclusions of the Greens and the Liberals, on 16.7% and 21.2%, which scrutineers’ reports related through the media suggest is unlikely to happen. Also today, whatever lingering hope there may have been for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein was snuffed out by dramatic revisions that blew Tim Wilson’s lead out from 129 to 444.
12.30pm. My assessment of last evening was evidently too sanguine with respect to Nicolette Boele, whose margin is dropping fast – now down to five votes. Almost all of the correction so far today is down to the St Ives pre-poll centre – the same one whose result was dramatically revised in the Liberals’ favour in the early stages of the check count – where 11 votes have been shifted from Boele to Kapterian. The broader dynamic is that the distribution of Labor preferences and their strong flow to Boele means that votes successfully being contested on grounds of formality are mostly for her.
Thursday
The Calwell preference distribution turned up its first real surprise with the exclusion of independent Sam Moslih, with fully 61.3% of the distribution going to the Greens ahead of the other remaining contenders, namely Labor, Liberal and independents Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana. This pushes the Greens ahead of Youhana, who will be the next candidate excluded. Kevin Bonham suggests this reflects a strong influence of Moslih’s how-to-vote card and/or that of Muslim Votes Matter, which is good news for Labor because both favoured Basem Abdo over Moore. Moore presently holds a 17.5% to 15.3% lead over the Greens, which seems unlikely to be closed with the exclusion of Youhana, given he favoured Moore on his how-to-vote card and the general tendency of independent votes to favour other independents. Assuming that’s so, we are now likely to see Greens preferences push Moore ahead of the Liberals, whose preferences will then produce a final result between Labor and Moore. Moore will need around 67.5% of the preferences shortly to be distributed from Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals.
Proceedings today in Bradfield wore Nicolette Boele’s lead down from 41 votes to 28, with three added to Gisele Kapterian’s tally and ten subtracted from Boele’s. A source familiar with the matter in comments indicates we should now be a good way into the last phase, namely the distribution following the exclusion of Labor with only Boele and Kapterian left standing. If the apparent pattern of movement in favour of Kapterian looks unlikely to eliminate the margin altogether, it does remove whatever doubt there may have been that the it will fall inside the 100-vote threshold for an automatic recount.
Wednesday
Calwell proceeded today through to the eighth count, leaving a remaining field of Labor, Liberal, the Greens and three independents. Carly Moore’s lead over the other independents has widened, and seems likely to be maintained through the imminent exclusions of the Greens and two other independents, together with the elimination of the current 18.5% to 16.4% gap between the Liberal candidate and Moore. Between now and the final count, Moore would need two-thirds of the preferences to overtake Labor.
Today’s preference distributions added 15 to the informal counts in both Bradfield and Goldstein, respectively cutting Nicolette Boele’s lead by four to 41 and increasing Tim Wilson’s lead by one to 129.
Tuesday
End of counting. We’re now six counts into Calwell, with another six exclusions to come. Candidates accounting for 9.1% of the primary vote have now been excluded, with results that probably don’t tell us all that much. Next out will be Legalise Cannabis and One Nation, who will perhaps go relatively heavily to established parties rather than independents, followed by Sam Moslih, whose how-to-vote card had Labor higher than the remaining independents. Most likely, the issue will then be whether preferences from Joseph Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals favour Moore enough to get her ahead of Basem Abdo.
Revisions arising from the preference distribution in Bradfield today have added 11 to the informal vote tally, costing Gisele Kapterian eight votes and Nicolette Boele two, increasing the latter’s lead from 39 to 45.
5pm. The Goldstein count has ended with Tim Wilson up by 128 votes. The AEC relates that the votes still in the system as awaiting processing have Senate ballot papers only. The preference distribution will now proceed, to be followed only by an automatic recount if the margin comes in below 100, though the discretion remains to conduct one even if it doesn’t. Arguments have been made that the population has increased since the 100-vote threshold was established about 15 years ago.
2.30pm. The Australian Electoral Commission will helpfully be publishing updates from Calwell in the form of progress preference distribution results that will presumably be updated with each exclusion. These are a bit hard to read, so I offer the following summary below, showing us up to count four out of twelve. This looks promising for independent Carly Moore with respect to her prospects of making the final count, with 21.5% of the preferences from the first three exclusions having gone to her. However, the marginal nature of the candidates excluded so far is such that these figures are unlikely to offer much insight as to whether Labor will receive enough preferences to get from their 30.5% primary vote to 50% at the final count. If it is Moore who comes second, she will need about two-third of preferences (and Labor one-third) from all other candidates.
Monday
The last batches of votes in Bradfield kept true to the contest’s epic form, with independent Nicolette Boele taking the lead at the last to end the scrutiny 39 votes ahead. But it doesn’t end there: the formal distribution of preferences will proceed throughout this week, almost certainly to be followed by the recount that proceeds automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, so Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian has at least some hope that proceedings turn up errors substantial enough to reverse the result. Kapterian began the day 43 votes ahead, then moved to 50 ahead when absents broke 29-22 her way. Boele’s breakthrough came when postals broke fully 125-56 her way, consolidated when declaration pre-polls favoured her 111-90.
A recent recount precedent missing from yesterday’s summary was Clive Palmer’s win in Fairfax in 2013: at 36, his margin on the indicative two-candidate count was very close to Boele’s, but it was reduced to seven during the preference distribution and then inflated to 53 on the recount. An informed source in comments notes that recounts have become less prone to produce changes since the initial recheck became a routine part of the procedure in 1984, and court rulings established legal precedents about formality, most notably in relation to the seat of McEwen in 2007.
In Goldstein, Tim Wilson’s lead is down from 254 to 206 after postals broke 94-60 and absents 76-62 to Zoe Daniel. The AEC records 332 envelopes awaiting processing, of which Daniel would need two-thirds to land in her column to get to automatic recount territory.
Sunday
With the deadline for the arrival of late postals having passed on Friday, there are two seats that can still be regarded as in doubt, barring extraordinary late developments. One is Bradfield, where today’s counting will account for 260 declaration pre-polls, 104 postals and 66 absents (UPDATE: Outstanding postals revised up to 191). Some of these will be deemed invalid and a handful will be informal, but as many as 380 will be added to a tally on which independent Nicolette Boele trails Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian by 43 votes.
The counting of these votes will be followed immediately by a full distribution of preferences. Should the margin land inside 100, as seems extremely likely, this will be followed by an automatic recount. A review conducted for the Australian Electoral Commission in 2014 helpfully reviews the history of recounts, which provides at least some level of information on how much the dial was moved by 11 recounts going back to 1958 (see pages 24 and the very last page). A recount for Bass in 1998 was something of an outlier in increasing Labor’s winning margin from 16 to 78. Including the one recount conducted since – for Herbert in 2016, which increased Labor’s margin from 8 to 35 – a typical recount seems to make about 20 votes’ difference to the final result.
A recount would seem to be the only remaining chance for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, who trails Liberal candidate Tim Wilson by 206 votes with 332 remaining to be processed: 172 declaration pre-polls, 100 postals and 39 absents, plus 21 provisionals that may all be disallowed. Even getting to the 100-vote threshold requires stretching the arithmetic here, but the returning officer can use their discretion to require a recount even if the threshold isn’t reached.
The other unknown is the seat of Calwell, which I have not been making the effort to follow on a blow-by-blow basis, since the point at issue is that there’s no way of knowing which out of as many as four candidates will make the final count along with Labor. The only thing that can be said for sure is that Labor win the seat if it’s the Liberal candidate, but it’s quite a bit more likely to be an independent. Such questions can only be answered by a full distribution of preferences. With only 154 votes remaining to be processed, this will presumably begin later today.
Then there’s the Senate, where the pressing of the button on the final results is still as much as a fortnight away. I have a post below with my latest updated assessments on how that is likely to play out.
Thanks Sprocket. So overall in the lower house that’s 28 LIB / 15 NAT I believe. I wonder if the LIB/NAT ratio has ever been that close federally? I can’t imagine it’s ever been less than 2:1 before.
@sprocket- Correct.
The 6 National seats in QLD are Hinkler, Wide Bay, Capricornia, Flynn, Dawson and Maranoa.
The 10 Liberal seats in QLD are Groom, Wright, Fadden, McPherson, Moncrieff, Bowman, Longman, Fairfax, Fisher, and Herbert.
The Senate numbers will be interesting , with Labor maybe able to bypass the Greens + Coalition blocking bloc.
Peeling off the Liberals or Nats with some like minded Indies could be another path to 39 votes.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-20/nationals-wont-reenter-coalition-agreement/105313818
Hahahahahahhahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Clunk.
In fact it was the only logical move for both parties, I just can’t fathom that they actually worked it out.
Now for fixing structural deficits and real action on climate. Please!
(If the LNP decides to sit as a block and joins forces with the declared Nats, the Libs are out of opposition, but not the way they wanted to be!
I had a friend scrutineering at the Mortlake booth in Reid. She was given the number to call through the results. She called it in before the 2PP was done because in her 30 years doing it Labor had never won the booth on primaries. Was all over by then.
sprocket_says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 12:33 pm
The Senate numbers will be interesting , with Labor maybe able to bypass the Greens + Coalition blocking bloc.
Peeling off the Liberals or Nats with some like minded Indies could be another path to 39 votes.
————————
the smokey in all this is the possible increase in the size of the parliament. in 1983 the nats split from the libs to support an increase. they know that the demographic change on the north coast and country victoria are gradually strangling them. their hope is that by increasing number of seats they can maintain some outback seats (every redistribution sees the abolition of outback seats as population inland declines) increasing the size of parliament postpones the inevitable. however it’s not all positives. an immediate effect will be to turn cowper, page and lyne into rural city-based seats a la richmond. so it will be swings and roundabouts as once these 3 seats are lost they will revert to lib/lab contests
Parliament is way overdue for an increase. ~120,000 electors per seat is too many. When parliament expanded to its current size it was only around 60,000 so it has pretty much doubled.
At a state level, there are around 50,000 per seat in Victoria and 60,000 in NSW. The UK has around 70,000 per seat/constituency I believe.
I think we should have around 250 seats that are maybe in the 70,000-80,000 range each (on current enrolment that would average just over 72,000 per seat).
Barring a change to the constitution, circa 250 lower house seats would mean 20 senators per state. That would make a quota at a half-senate election a smidge over nine percent and at a DD a touch under five percent. Make of that what you will.
Oh, and what I said about Macnamara was that it was almost in the bet-your-house-on-it category for a Greens gain. In my defence, I was misled by the opinion polls which unanimously had Labor taking a bad hit in Victoria. In the plus column, I was right about Fowler.
This truly is the election that keeps on giving.
No more Coalition – what’s next?
At this rate we’ll have Well done Angus announcing his leadership spill against Sussan next week.
“We have lost 1 Newspolls in a row.”
On the postal/earlies vs. day-ofs, that’s a dynamic I’ve seen many times here in the States. Polls point one way, early vote points another. Sometimes the polls are off, but sometimes that means the candidate who looks to be doing well on early vote is just having the same voters who were going to vote for them anyway vote sooner, and does very badly on day-of. That’s why even in races where the partisan composition of early vote is known, you still have to be very careful about using it to draw big conclusions about how things are going to go after election day.
In this case, there was indeed a swing to the Libs in Goldstein and Kooyong, but not as much of one as the early vote would suggest. It was just large enough to swamp Daniel and just small enough to not quite get Ryan.
So does the Coalition split mean Sussan Ley has to now somehow form a shadow cabinet from only the members that caucus with the Liberal Party?
Timmy says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 1:53 pm
So does the Coalition split mean Sussan Ley has to now somehow form a shadow cabinet from only the members that caucus with the Liberal Party?
中华人民共和国
Yes mate and the Nats I imagine will have their own spokespersons. Could get interesting.
@Ante, that’s right I remember now. And I was leaning towards a Greens gain myself – albeit only a slight lean, with an expectation that it would be roughly 50/50 who out of ALP & GRN finished second (I don’t think anybody expected Labor to finish first) – mostly for the same reason as you: all the expectations were that Labor would cop a swing against them in Victoria, but they didn’t.
I think my prediction throughout the campaign (as the Liberal polling tanked) went from around a 50/50 chance of either a 57-43 ALP v LIB 2CP or a 52-48 GRN v LIB 2CP, to still a 50/50 chance of who makes the 2CP but around a 59-41 ALP v LIB or 54-46 GRN v LIB result due to the declining Liberal vote.
Labor maintaining a 62-38 2PP margin while putting more than a 10% primary vote buffer between themselves and the Greens was definitely not on my bingo card.
Good. So sick of this irrelevent extremist self-interested lobby group for the mining industry pretending they speak for regional Australians. So sick of them pushing the discussion to the right on every issue.
The Nationals (NSW, Vic) received 3.8% of the vote; the LNP (Qld) received 7.1% of the vote, electing 10 Libs and 6 Nats, so Nats’ share of LNP vote is around 2.7%. So total Nats vote 6.5%, yet they have 15 seats, 10% of seats, and half a dozen Cabinet slots including Deputy PM when in govt. While Greens with 12% have 1 seat, One Nation with 6.4% got no seats.
On the downside, we’ll now have to endure even more PK-led post-mortems and “whither the Liberals” talkfasts.
Ante Meridian says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 1:34 pm
“Barring a change to the constitution, circa 250 lower house seats would mean 20 senators per state. That would make a quota at a half-senate election a smidge over nine percent and at a DD a touch under five percent. Make of that what you will.”
It maybe that an increase to the number of Senators might increase the number of minor party reps but reduce their influence, as they become small fish in a bigger Senate. There is less chance of a random Hanson or two holding the balance. Their sort only scrape in on even more minor RWNJ prefs ATM.
BTW, if we had 250 HoR seats and 125 Senators, does that mean they need a bigger Parliament House?
Build up, or out?
PaulTu,
We could have what happens in the UK parliament where there aren’t enough seats for everyone, so it’s first in best dressed. And on rare occasions when there’s a really important debate on, there are standees packed into the corners.
it’s not a permanent split – more like separate bedrooms
@ Paul Tu-
Re-open Old Parliament House. Senators occupy there and Reps occupy both houses in New Parliament.
KB’s Calwell thread:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-late-postcount-calwell.html
Early doors, but Carly Moore drawing very well so far from both left and right minors… even as something of a Labor partisan I have to admit it would be extremely cosmically funny if they capped off their best election in living memory by coming a cropper in a safe seat.
The odds of Littleproud and Ley surviving till next election have dropped from 0% to 0%.
Looks like Palmer will be back given the Nationals departure. His wish finally came true.
For as much as any opinion is worth anything, the Nats. leaving the Coalition is largely theatre.
I will believe this is their true direction when they put candidates up against Liberals in current Liberal held seats and when the Libs go into the sticks a put Liberal candidates up against the Nats.
True to say they did fight it out here in WA in Bullwinkel but the aim, I think, may have been to preference one another to keep Labor out.
Let’s face it, the Nats are strong in some of the poorest (economically speaking) seats in Oz, and together with the hand-out mentality of the Nats when with the Libs (in WA for instance a slab of money set aside under the name Royalties for Regions whereby the Nats convinced the State Libs that National seats deserved this pork barrel in order to support the Libs) maybe the Libs might be better off without them.
Politics is a strange business and it was not so long ago the local Nats in WA threatened to join Labor in some kind of coalition – unless the Liberals coughed up $$$ for said Royalties for Regions arrangement.
Wilson has apparently won in Goldstein by 128 votes before the formal distribution of preferences
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-214.htm
More seats formally declared by the AEC today.
Canning, WA (Lib)
Chisholm, Vic (ALP)
Tangney, WA (ALP)
Big bananasays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 4:35 pm
Wilson has apparently won in Goldstein by 128 votes before the formal distribution of preferences
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-214.htm
========================================================
Your link says 86 envelopes still to process.
Antony green says about the 86 to be processed in Goldstein
“Partial admissions where the senate ballot paper is to be admitted but the House ballot paper rejected.”
Woah what a turnaround in Goldstein. I wonder if any adjustments that occur during the DOP, bring the final margin within the magic 100 vote threshold for a recount?
(Not that I think a recount will change the outcome for a margin anywhere near 100 votes anyway)
Daniels can request a recount even if the margin is more 100. The AEC policy is just to automatically grant a recount if the margin is less than 100. It doesn’t mean that they will not grant one if the margin is 128 votes as opposed to 99 votes, just they won’t do it as the default.
The only way that a margin that big is over come in a recount is if more than one bundle of 50 has been miscounted. Given they have been checked twice, it is unlikely.
In Calwell, the informal vote is 10.51%. Don’t you that can make a huge difference in such a clusterf**k seat.
Ante Meridian says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 1:34 pm
…….. I was misled by the opinion polls which unanimously had Labor taking a bad hit in Victoria. In the plus column, I was right about Fowler.
———–
You were mislead by the reporting.
The polls had the ALP “down” from 54+ to 52+. The massive swing was LNP political propaganda and a lazy MSM looking for excitement. This election was never close. Not ever. (I’ve forgotten my wish cast given to Mostly Interested where I lusted after massive Greens gains …. but the LNP were always fugged. Dutton just had to show his face and try to string a sentence together without spewing contempt for the voters. He couldn’t do it. They got smashed. Then Trump trumped Dutton and himself.
They lied about their internal polling. Look at Bludgertrack. Huge (late) upswing.
”
Entropysays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 4:44 pm
Big bananasays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 4:35 pm
Wilson has apparently won in Goldstein by 128 votes before the formal distribution of preferences
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-214.htm
========================================================
Your link says 86 envelopes still to process.
”
What are chances that 70 out of those 86 go Daniel way?
Would the AEC grant Zoe Daniel a recount if she asked for one?
Democracy Sausage @ #232 Tuesday, May 20th, 2025 – 5:09 pm
I think only if she had compelling evidence that something went wrong in the count.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 5:11 pm
Democracy Sausage @ #232 Tuesday, May 20th, 2025 – 5:09 pm
Would the AEC grant Zoe Daniel a recount if she asked for one?
I think only if she had compelling evidence that something went wrong in the count.
==================================================================
Still to do the preference distribution checks. Always a chance they find a mistake that brings it below 100 doing that.
Boele picks up 6 on the first day of full preference distribution – now up by 45
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-108.htm
Zoe Daniel “STOP THE STEAL !”
barney says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 3:24 pm
“it’s not a permanent split – more like separate bedrooms”
It’s Canberra. Separate bedrooms. Strange late night liaisons.
PaulTu: “BTW, if we had 250 HoR seats and 125 Senators, does that mean they need a bigger Parliament House? Build up, or out?”
General admission. Like Jetstar.
They could install another bank of seats, raised up above the last row.
Plenty of room in the chamber. They would have to boot most of the remaining APH staff and the press gallery into the basement so that every one got an office.
You’re a tease.
Latest from the Calwell preference count after the 5 candidates with the least amount of votes eliminated:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-late-postcount-calwell.html
Top 4 candidates,
Abdo (ALP): 32.15%
Ghani (Lib): 16.85%
Moore (Ind): 13.74%
Youhana (Ind): 11.82%
5 down, 8 to go.
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 6:16 pm
They could install another bank of seats, raised up above the last row.
Plenty of room in the chamber. They would have to boot most of the remaining APH staff and the press gallery into the basement so that every one got an office.
______________________________________________
Both chambers were designed to accommodate a substantial increase in numbers. A bit of a no-brainer when you think about it.
Ante-Meridian @3:19pm
Why don’t the silly pommies build a bigger parliament?
131 votes up lib is -Goldstein latest.
Entropysays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 5:51pm
Still to do the preference distribution checks. Always a chance they find a mistake that brings it below 100 doing that.
_____________________
Give it up. It’s done and dusted.
Only thing remaining is Zoe’s concession speech.
She will probably follow Ryan’s lead and complain about what a nasty campaign it was.
Sour grapes if you ask me.
Taylormade — eh, let people have their longshots. Sometimes it’s fun to bet on the 0.0000001% result, as long as it’s conceded when it’s fully declared.
MABWM says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 5:05 pm
Ante Meridian says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 1:34 pm
…….. I was misled by the opinion polls which unanimously had Labor taking a bad hit in Victoria. In the plus column, I was right about Fowler.
———–
You were mislead by the reporting.
The polls had the ALP “down” from 54+ to 52+. The massive swing was LNP political propaganda and a lazy MSM looking for excitement. This election was never close. Not ever. (I’ve forgotten my wish cast given to Mostly Interested where I lusted after massive Greens gains …. but the LNP were always fugged. Dutton just had to show his face and try to string a sentence together without spewing contempt for the voters. He couldn’t do it. They got smashed. Then Trump trumped Dutton and himself.
They lied about their internal polling. Look at Bludgertrack. Huge (late) upswing.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I agree, the election was never close. Not ever.
There was never going to be a Coalition majority.
There was never going to be a Coalition minority.
There was never going to be a Labor minority.
The Coalition did lie about their internal polling.
What else were they supposed to do.
Throw in the towel and tell the voters don’t vote for us we can’t win.
Labor did know they were going to win by their internal polling.
But I doubt they knew by how much.
In the last 12 months I said Labor wins at 78 seats.
Then that increased to 80+ weeks out from May 3.
I never thought we would get to 94 though.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:39 pm
Entropysays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 5:51pm
Still to do the preference distribution checks. Always a chance they find a mistake that brings it below 100 doing that.
_____________________
Give it up. It’s done and dusted.
Only thing remaining is Zoe’s concession speech.
========================================================
Official AEC declaration is next. No need for a concession speech when seat isn’t determined till after the end of counting.
98.6 @ #247 Tuesday, May 20th, 2025 – 10:06 pm
The coalition didn’t lie about their internal polling. They just fucked up their weighting.
They believed that how people voted on the referendum would influence how they voted in the election, as if they were somehow linked, and adjusted their numbers up based on that. That’s why they continued to play the culture war BS game.
So will we land on #28in25 or #29in25 ?
Following the Calwell count with interest and hoping the Greens move into 4th off the back of Legalise Cannabis preferences and roll on to win it from there. An unexpected miracle lol
While it would be nice to chalk up another independent win it’s interesting the Greens had Moore after Labor on their HTV, Youhana above both. A Palestinian candidate in Abdo winning could be a good outcome all things considered or else Youhana or Moore on Liberal preferences