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Saturday
Tim Wilson has finished the preference distribution in Goldstein 260 votes ahead of Zoe Daniel, after a series of late revisions that drove first drove his lead up yesterday from 129 to 444, before today cutting it back to 170 and then settling on the final margin. These convulsions presumably loom large in the request Daniel has submitted for a recount, but experience suggests the AEC will stand by the 100-vote threshold it set in place in 2008.
Friday
Yet another twist in the saga of Bradfield, which ended with Gisele Kapterian taking the lead at the last and finishing the scrutiny with an eight-vote lead over Nicolette Boele. The Australian Electoral Commission promptly confirmed that this would be subject to a recount, as it does automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, which will begin on Monday and is “expected to take up to two weeks”. Twenty-two out of Kapterian’s 48-vote gain during the preference distribution came with a second correction from the St Ives pre-poll centre, which had put Kapterian in the hunt the Monday after the election with the addition of hitherto unreported votes to its tally, booting her by 440 votes. The issue this time was apparently a transpositional error in the record of preference flows, causing 11 votes to shift from Boele to Kapterian.
The rest of the movement largely resulted from ballots previously admitted to the count being deemed informal, a process that favoured Kapterian because only the third or so of the vote that was cast for excluded candidates was under consideration, around two-thirds of which went to Boele as preferences. Boele’s hope lies in the recount revisiting the two-thirds of the vote that was cast for the two leading candidates, where the same dynamic is likely to work against Kapterian, who has 38.1% of the primary vote to Boele’s 27.0%. If these votes are excluded in roughly the same proportions as those of the other candidates during the preference distribution (during which Labor lost 23 votes, the Greens 14, One Nation 8, independent Andy Yin 7 and the Libertarians 6), Kapterian will lose about 65 votes to Boele’s 45. The distinctions are fine enough that clearly nothing can be said with certainty – and even if Boele were to emerge with the slender lead implied, there would be a strong chance of a court finding enough routine irregularities to void the result and force a by-election.
In Calwell today, the preferences of independent Joseph Youhana were excluded, nearly 60% of them favouring independent Carly Moore, pushing her well clear of the Liberals into second place. Labor holds a lead of 36.6% to 25.6% that Moore needs to chase down with the successive exclusions of the Greens and the Liberals, on 16.7% and 21.2%, which scrutineers’ reports related through the media suggest is unlikely to happen. Also today, whatever lingering hope there may have been for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein was snuffed out by dramatic revisions that blew Tim Wilson’s lead out from 129 to 444.
12.30pm. My assessment of last evening was evidently too sanguine with respect to Nicolette Boele, whose margin is dropping fast – now down to five votes. Almost all of the correction so far today is down to the St Ives pre-poll centre – the same one whose result was dramatically revised in the Liberals’ favour in the early stages of the check count – where 11 votes have been shifted from Boele to Kapterian. The broader dynamic is that the distribution of Labor preferences and their strong flow to Boele means that votes successfully being contested on grounds of formality are mostly for her.
Thursday
The Calwell preference distribution turned up its first real surprise with the exclusion of independent Sam Moslih, with fully 61.3% of the distribution going to the Greens ahead of the other remaining contenders, namely Labor, Liberal and independents Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana. This pushes the Greens ahead of Youhana, who will be the next candidate excluded. Kevin Bonham suggests this reflects a strong influence of Moslih’s how-to-vote card and/or that of Muslim Votes Matter, which is good news for Labor because both favoured Basem Abdo over Moore. Moore presently holds a 17.5% to 15.3% lead over the Greens, which seems unlikely to be closed with the exclusion of Youhana, given he favoured Moore on his how-to-vote card and the general tendency of independent votes to favour other independents. Assuming that’s so, we are now likely to see Greens preferences push Moore ahead of the Liberals, whose preferences will then produce a final result between Labor and Moore. Moore will need around 67.5% of the preferences shortly to be distributed from Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals.
Proceedings today in Bradfield wore Nicolette Boele’s lead down from 41 votes to 28, with three added to Gisele Kapterian’s tally and ten subtracted from Boele’s. A source familiar with the matter in comments indicates we should now be a good way into the last phase, namely the distribution following the exclusion of Labor with only Boele and Kapterian left standing. If the apparent pattern of movement in favour of Kapterian looks unlikely to eliminate the margin altogether, it does remove whatever doubt there may have been that the it will fall inside the 100-vote threshold for an automatic recount.
Wednesday
Calwell proceeded today through to the eighth count, leaving a remaining field of Labor, Liberal, the Greens and three independents. Carly Moore’s lead over the other independents has widened, and seems likely to be maintained through the imminent exclusions of the Greens and two other independents, together with the elimination of the current 18.5% to 16.4% gap between the Liberal candidate and Moore. Between now and the final count, Moore would need two-thirds of the preferences to overtake Labor.
Today’s preference distributions added 15 to the informal counts in both Bradfield and Goldstein, respectively cutting Nicolette Boele’s lead by four to 41 and increasing Tim Wilson’s lead by one to 129.
Tuesday
End of counting. We’re now six counts into Calwell, with another six exclusions to come. Candidates accounting for 9.1% of the primary vote have now been excluded, with results that probably don’t tell us all that much. Next out will be Legalise Cannabis and One Nation, who will perhaps go relatively heavily to established parties rather than independents, followed by Sam Moslih, whose how-to-vote card had Labor higher than the remaining independents. Most likely, the issue will then be whether preferences from Joseph Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals favour Moore enough to get her ahead of Basem Abdo.
Revisions arising from the preference distribution in Bradfield today have added 11 to the informal vote tally, costing Gisele Kapterian eight votes and Nicolette Boele two, increasing the latter’s lead from 39 to 45.
5pm. The Goldstein count has ended with Tim Wilson up by 128 votes. The AEC relates that the votes still in the system as awaiting processing have Senate ballot papers only. The preference distribution will now proceed, to be followed only by an automatic recount if the margin comes in below 100, though the discretion remains to conduct one even if it doesn’t. Arguments have been made that the population has increased since the 100-vote threshold was established about 15 years ago.
2.30pm. The Australian Electoral Commission will helpfully be publishing updates from Calwell in the form of progress preference distribution results that will presumably be updated with each exclusion. These are a bit hard to read, so I offer the following summary below, showing us up to count four out of twelve. This looks promising for independent Carly Moore with respect to her prospects of making the final count, with 21.5% of the preferences from the first three exclusions having gone to her. However, the marginal nature of the candidates excluded so far is such that these figures are unlikely to offer much insight as to whether Labor will receive enough preferences to get from their 30.5% primary vote to 50% at the final count. If it is Moore who comes second, she will need about two-third of preferences (and Labor one-third) from all other candidates.
Monday
The last batches of votes in Bradfield kept true to the contest’s epic form, with independent Nicolette Boele taking the lead at the last to end the scrutiny 39 votes ahead. But it doesn’t end there: the formal distribution of preferences will proceed throughout this week, almost certainly to be followed by the recount that proceeds automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, so Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian has at least some hope that proceedings turn up errors substantial enough to reverse the result. Kapterian began the day 43 votes ahead, then moved to 50 ahead when absents broke 29-22 her way. Boele’s breakthrough came when postals broke fully 125-56 her way, consolidated when declaration pre-polls favoured her 111-90.
A recent recount precedent missing from yesterday’s summary was Clive Palmer’s win in Fairfax in 2013: at 36, his margin on the indicative two-candidate count was very close to Boele’s, but it was reduced to seven during the preference distribution and then inflated to 53 on the recount. An informed source in comments notes that recounts have become less prone to produce changes since the initial recheck became a routine part of the procedure in 1984, and court rulings established legal precedents about formality, most notably in relation to the seat of McEwen in 2007.
In Goldstein, Tim Wilson’s lead is down from 254 to 206 after postals broke 94-60 and absents 76-62 to Zoe Daniel. The AEC records 332 envelopes awaiting processing, of which Daniel would need two-thirds to land in her column to get to automatic recount territory.
Sunday
With the deadline for the arrival of late postals having passed on Friday, there are two seats that can still be regarded as in doubt, barring extraordinary late developments. One is Bradfield, where today’s counting will account for 260 declaration pre-polls, 104 postals and 66 absents (UPDATE: Outstanding postals revised up to 191). Some of these will be deemed invalid and a handful will be informal, but as many as 380 will be added to a tally on which independent Nicolette Boele trails Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian by 43 votes.
The counting of these votes will be followed immediately by a full distribution of preferences. Should the margin land inside 100, as seems extremely likely, this will be followed by an automatic recount. A review conducted for the Australian Electoral Commission in 2014 helpfully reviews the history of recounts, which provides at least some level of information on how much the dial was moved by 11 recounts going back to 1958 (see pages 24 and the very last page). A recount for Bass in 1998 was something of an outlier in increasing Labor’s winning margin from 16 to 78. Including the one recount conducted since – for Herbert in 2016, which increased Labor’s margin from 8 to 35 – a typical recount seems to make about 20 votes’ difference to the final result.
A recount would seem to be the only remaining chance for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, who trails Liberal candidate Tim Wilson by 206 votes with 332 remaining to be processed: 172 declaration pre-polls, 100 postals and 39 absents, plus 21 provisionals that may all be disallowed. Even getting to the 100-vote threshold requires stretching the arithmetic here, but the returning officer can use their discretion to require a recount even if the threshold isn’t reached.
The other unknown is the seat of Calwell, which I have not been making the effort to follow on a blow-by-blow basis, since the point at issue is that there’s no way of knowing which out of as many as four candidates will make the final count along with Labor. The only thing that can be said for sure is that Labor win the seat if it’s the Liberal candidate, but it’s quite a bit more likely to be an independent. Such questions can only be answered by a full distribution of preferences. With only 154 votes remaining to be processed, this will presumably begin later today.
Then there’s the Senate, where the pressing of the button on the final results is still as much as a fortnight away. I have a post below with my latest updated assessments on how that is likely to play out.
I’d favour Kapterian to retain that lead after the recount has been completed, the Liberals will have a mega team of scrutineers overseeing proceedings, Boele’s camp won’t have anywhere near the same resources. Anyway, we’ve got another week of suspense, and maybe more beyond that, so we can keep this informative and incisive thread going for a little while longer.
20% of Labor voters preferencing Kapterian over Boele – really crucial!
Edgepork David – agreed Tina Brown at a first attempt did pretty well in Berowra, I wonder if she’ll run again in 3 years time or have a go at one of the state seats in 2027 – Hornsby or Wahroonga?
The Labor candidate did virtually no campaigning, at least not at my end of the seat, no letter boxing, no door knocking, no street stalls or railway station appearances(I live in Thornleigh). He benefitted from Leeser’s primary vote falling into the low 40s and just about all of the Greens and Teal preferences. Leeser was actually behind on the votes cast on May 3 and the prepolls too, in 2 party preferred terms, but 57% of postals got him over the line(always a reliable Liberal vote in these parts, from retirees and older people).
Andrew_Earlwood at 6.43 pm
Your last comment is no excuse for the drongo Labor voter, i.e. those who preferred a Liberal to a Teal.
Your comment implies such voters value “stability”, yet Labor claimed very successfully that a vote for the Libs would not produce stability.
That type of Labor voter, even if partly educated about preferential voting, could not have known that Labor would get a majority, especially as close observers like yourself and others doubted the certainty of that.
Ultimately in an election perceived as close any Labor voter preferencing a Lib candidate over a Teal is reducing, even marginally, the chances of Labor potentially forming government.
“If Labor are getting around 70% of the Greens exclusion in Calwell, that will put them on a 3CP share over 48%. Done and dusted if that’s the case, 2CP won’t be close.”
Greens primary is only half of that pile of course.
“Boele’s camp won’t have anywhere near the same resources”
Why aren’t there any ALP or Greens nerds offering to do a spot just because they already miss scrutineering? 😉
Lead for lib is now 8 votes.Bradfield.
I guess Boele’s camp could reach out to Labor and the Greens to assist in scrutineering.
Being a Labor man, I’m hoping Team Albo get to 94 lower house seats, I always prefer an even number.
There is reason to think that Boele should be favoured to regain the lead from Kapterian in a recount.
When allocating preferences, they don’t look at the first preference votes of the leading candidates, only the votes of eliminated candidates.
Boele received 26,000 preferences to Kapterian 14,000. It is not surprising that more of Boele’s votes were ruled to be informal when she had a 65% share of votes being scrunitsed.
When they go the re-count, they will start with the first preference votes. As Kapterian has 12,000 more first preferences, all things be equal, more of her first preferences will be disallowed.
When it comes to the doing re-count of the preference distribution, the votes from the eliminated candidates will have gone through two full counts, so there should be fewer undetected errors.
Democracy Sausage says:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 7:22 pm
Being a Labor man, I’m hoping Team Albo get to 94 lower house seats, I always prefer an even number.
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I sir shall drink to you on this wet and humid night! Good evening comrade and the best of the morrow to you.
Democracy Sausage at 7.22 pm
Of course you don’t. You preferred Labor getting 77 seats in 2022 to 76.
Back again next week for more fun! I won’t put the curse on Boele by predicting an outcome.
”
Edgepork Davidsays:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 6:51 pm
@Democracy Sausage
I feel that Tina Brown (the C200-funded independent in Berowra) did admirably well to pull 11.4% primary on her first attempt. She peeled beaucoup votes from the Greens candidate and Leeser. That said, I think she (or any other independent) needs Boele to take Bradfield this time to make it worth trying again.
In 2022, I was really satisfied to see the Lib primary vote in Berowra go under 50% for the first time since 1969. At that point, I couldn’t envisage the seat ever going to Labor but I thought it might turn Green or teal circa 2031. It’s now feasible that Labor could be competitive in 2027-28 . . . amazing.
”
What is even more amazing to me is that Mitchell became amongst a marginal seat now with a 2PP 53.8-46.2 in favour of Libs.
It was the safest seat of Libs in Australia in 2019.
”
pied pipersays:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 7:12 pm
Lead for lib is now 8 votes.Bradfield.
”
At this point WB appears to be sanguine about Boele prospects. I will always only give value to WB assessment when compared to PP assessment. Always.
I hope Boele wins at the end of recount. 🙂
Dr Doolittle says:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 7:04 pm
Andrew_Earlwood at 6.43 pm
Your last comment is no excuse for the drongo Labor voter, i.e. those who preferred a Liberal to a Teal.
Your comment implies such voters value “stability”, yet Labor claimed very successfully that a vote for the Libs would not produce stability.
That type of Labor voter, even if partly educated about preferential voting, could not have known that Labor would get a majority, especially as close observers like yourself and others doubted the certainty of that.
Ultimately in an election perceived as close any Labor voter preferencing a Lib candidate over a Teal is reducing, even marginally, the chances of Labor potentially forming government.
********
One of the unfortunate consequences of universal franchise is that people keep voting in ways that I (or, I assume, you) would not. This has often lead to very bad outcomes, such as the election of LNP Governments. Perhaps we could legislate that electors be required to consult with us prior to casting their vote.
Brilliant move for the keys, Gisele Kapterian. Fantastic timing.
@Ven
Mitchell is astonishing, isn’t it? Hawke lost about 9 points in ’22 and 6 points this time. Like Leeser, he’s on a disastrous trajectory.
I’m not certain of this thesis but I’ll put it forward anyway: a lot of swinging voters in these notionally conservative seats put a high value on stable government and a PM who seems assured and unfussed. They preferred Turnbull and Morrison over Shorten; they preferred Albo over Morrison and Dutton.
It might be the case that next time out, the local candidates won’t matter much in Mitchell and Berowra; conservative votes for Albo could carry the day.
Very neat and tidy final numbers in Bean. Labor 51,700 2PP. Indy 51,000. Margin 700. No rounding needed!
@Democracy Sausage
I saw no campaigning from Lab or Lib here in Hornsby, apart from corflutes. Tina Brown was everywhere, including my letterbox, internet and streamed TV. (I saw a lot of Boele stuff, too.) I think Berowra is there for the taking next time, if Labor wants to have a serious crack.
Whether Brown tries her hand for a state seat might depend on whether C200 is interested in funding the campaign.
On the subject of state seats, I’ll always be willing to say (as a long-time ALP man) that former Liberal Hornsby member Judy Hopgood (Matt Kean’s predecessor) was by far the best local rep I’ve known.
Oddly, Sportsbet has not paid me out on the “crushing” Lib victory in Bradfield!
@Martin B,
“Greens primary is only half of that pile of course.”
—
I know, and most of the other half came via Moslih which the scrutineer reports said are flowing even stronger to Labor.
“I know, and most of the other half came via Moslih which the scrutineer reports said are flowing even stronger to Labor.”
It would be genuinely remarkable if preferences from an independent candidate were that disciplined, but if that is the case then you are right that there won’t be any doubt.
The AEC has confirmed the formality of the recount being conducted in Bradfield, which will begin on Monday and is “expected to take up to two weeks”.
”
Edgepork Davidsays:
Friday, May 23, 2025 at 9:00 pm
@Democracy Sausage
I saw no campaigning from Lab or Lib here in Hornsby, apart from corflutes. Tina Brown was everywhere, including my letterbox, internet and streamed TV. (I saw a lot of Boele stuff, too.) I think Berowra is there for the taking next time, if Labor wants to have a serious crack.
”
David
That reminds me of Hughes in 2022. Liberals won that seat from ALP in 1996 with about 11% and never lost the seat till 2025.
In 2022, a Community Independent, not C200, campaigned vigorously with corflutes, door knocking. She garnered about 14%. I think ALP suffered about 9% swing on PV and lost to Libs.
That independent did not contest this. ALP had a swing of 11% in its favour and won on 2PP of about 53.5%. That is one of the seats like Banks, which was not on the radar on experts.
And Alex Hawke of Mitchell is one of the most disliked figures in NSW Liberals.
Remember that the Moslih votes in the Greens’ pile are predominantly voters who had already followed the HTVC at least up to that selection, so the follow rate among that cohort will likely be significantly higher than Moslih’s overall follow rate.
Moslih was also the MVM endorsed candidate so there was a MVM HTVC with the same order that would have been more widely distributed, in addition to Moslih’s own card.
In addition to that, I’d say a lot of MVM voters would probably be likely to put a Palestinian candidate like Abdo above non-Muslim candidates (like Moore).
So a high rate of the MVM/Moslih voters who had already followed the HTVC up to the Greens, continuing to follow it to put Adbo above Moore for all those reasons is pretty likely I think.
Thank you William for the explanation above of what is to happen next in Bradfield.
If there was eventually a byelection ordered, you would assume Labor wouldn’t run a candidate and neither would One Nation or Clive Palmer, so it would be a straight shootout between Liberals and Teals.
UpNorth – good morning to you cobber.
Nathan – morning mate
Edgepork David – Judy Hopwood definitely performed well as a state MP for Hornsby, I know little about the young guy who succeeded Matt Kean. My federal seat is Berowra but my state seat is Wahroonga – the local state MP Alistair Henskens seems to care more about undermining his state leader Mark Speakman than local issues.
On a human level, you would feel empathy for both women in Bradfield, the whole process is a nerve wracking and agonising one.
Morning!
Regrading the recount….Wondering how the AEC updates the progress on their Tallyroom page. 0 it out and go again, or drib and drabs?
So WB’s analysis says that after the recount Boele might lose 45 votes to Kapterian’s 65. Net gain of 20 for Boele. Kapterian leads by 8 so Boele would win the seat by 12 votes – extraordinary. In that scenario the chances of a by-election being held seem pretty high I concur.
A 2 week recount, kinda good for us in here, we can keep this thread going for a bit longer – will the AEC give us day by day updates as to how it’s progressing?
Goldstein – that one’s all over, hate to say it, not being a Tim Wilson fan, and I rather like Zoe Daniel too.
Nathan, Upnorth, Outsider,davidwh(especially, the XXXX King) etc – my sentiments, which you’d all agree with – on the beers with the blokes , the way to be. Mix in some politics with it too.
Do we know if there is counting in Calwell today?
DFM Brown — no more counting until Monday, I believe.
If the Bradfield result ends up being voided and there’s a fresh election, there would be very short odds on Boele coming out as the winner, if Labor and Greens don’t field candidates.
If the Libs lose by a whisker after the recount, they might not end up disputing the result. If positions are reversed, Boele will be going to Court.
It was noted yesterday that Tim Wilson’s margin in Goldstein blew out yesterday from 129 to 444. This morning it dropped to 170, and now it’s at 260.
WTH is happening in Goldstein? The numbers are going up and down like a yo-yo.
Based on that itself Daniel should ask for full, clean recount.
“Based on that itself Daniel should ask for full, clean recount.”
She should call for a recount just to piss off Wilson.
Oh she has, it’s official!
We can dream of a Goldstein by-election – and Labor and the Greens sit it out…
Zoe Daniel was correct to request a recount, odd fluctuations in that count over the past few days, if only to piss off Tim Wilson.
I agree too that Labor and the Greens would stay out of a subsequent byelection in Bradfield.
I understand it is not a “by-election” but a supplementary election.
Why would Labor or the Greens sit out such an election? Particularly Labor? They just got 36.5% of the Senate vote in the general election. It seems to be totally escaping most commentators how much of the Boele primary vote is Labor voters who were told that “Labor couldn’t win” so vote for Boele. We will also see the 2PP count before any Supplementary election.
If the general expectation that Labor will be in Government for 6 years takes hold, people might feel a member in the Government is more useful than another crossbencher….
Bradfield has been held by the Liberal Party since it was created in 1949. It is classic blue-ribbon Liberal territory, one of the most affluent divisions in the country. The recent redistribution has not changed that. Even at this high point, Labor has little or no chance of winning Bradfield. Many seats would fall first. Of course I’d love to see that happen.
On the other hand, Bradfield is on the cusp of turning Teal. As a Bradfield voter, I thought that the best way that I could help Labor to retain Governments in the general election was to help to eject the Liberals from the seat that I had been redistributed into. My judgement was that the best way that I could help to accomplish that was to vote for Ms Boele.
We are now having a supplementary election. Given the unexpected size of Labor’s victory, plus a new Liberal leader who would be far more acceptable in a seat like Bradfield than the Trumpy Dutton, it is likely that more former/usual Liberal voters will feel happy to to vote Liberal this time. I will therefore vote for who I judge to be the best chance to defeating the Liberals, i.e. Ms Boele.
After the she offered her honour, he honoured her offer and all day and night he was on her and off her Libs and Nats clown show, Boele would be odds on to claim this seat should a supplementary election be held.
True Believersays:
Saturday, May 24, 2025 at 8:23 pm
After the she offered her honour, he honoured her offer and all day and night he was on her and off her
– – – – – – – – – –
I have a sudden hankering to have some madeira 🙂
Kevin Bonham on his blog, regarding the Goldstein situation:
“just adding a note that as best I can tell none of the several significant corrections in Goldstein have involved incorrect primary votes. All have involved votes misattributed to 2CP, either in the form of votes being physically in the incorrect pile or in the form of numbers of votes being incorrectly recorded.”
I imagine this would negatively impact Daniel’s chances for a recount — but even if it is granted, further errors of this type are more likely to hurt her position (since she is more reliant on preferences). This is looking like “the plot of the piña colada song happening to you in real life” on my subjective longshot-o-meter.
This is what Zoe Daniel gets for randomly blocking constituents on Twitter.
Whoever said Boele would be odds on favourite to win Bradfield if a supplementary election was held is plainly wrong. Kapterian had very little time to campaign in Bradfield as she was initally preselected for North Sydney. Boele had 3 years to campaign. The more voters see of Kapterian the more they’ll like her — she has a very strong resume and has the optics of nothing other than a total moderate.
Also, it’s clear that even amongst traditional Liberal voters, Dutton was very much disliked and thus a heavy drag on the Liberal vote. The fact that he is out of Parliament and in no position to ever be in Government is good for Kapterian. Sussan Ley has no baggage whatsoever and traditional Liberal voters in Bradfield will come running home (at least enough for Kapterian to win). + Boele will be running post having sexually harassed a random hairdresser unlike the campaign that just concluded.
HN says:
Sunday, May 25, 2025 at 5:51 pm
Sussan Ley has no baggage whatsoever and traditional Liberal voters in Bradfield will come running home (at least enough for Kapterian to win). + Boele will be running post having sexually harassed a random hairdresser unlike the campaign that just concluded.
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Yeah Sussan Leys taxpayer funded trip to the Gold Coast to look at Real Estate should be no baggage for her.
“Sussan Ley bought $795,000 flat on impulse on taxpayer-funded trip”. The Guardian.
Let’s see HN. The Coalition’s days our lives drama playing out won’t sit well with the good burghers of Bradfield and the retention of the nuclear policy will also be toxic to Kapterian’s chances.
Yes she’s a moderate and by all accounts has talent but Climate policy means more in this seat than potentially others. Also, if Labor doesn’t run that will only help Boele’s chances. Happy to wager a frothy Hawkes Lager on it.
Keep in mind it was what, 20-25% of Labor Votes preferenced Blue over Teal? Anyway, I think we are getting ahead of ourselves. There is a recount to do, and there is no guarantee that we will go to a subsequent election. Then there is the question of who is going to run again.
Imagine if the LNP had won the election on the back of the support of media proprietors?
And my view is that there is no recovery for the LNP where it is confirmed that the Country Party rump wags the dog confirmed by the ALP obliterating the Liberal Party from metro areas
Steve 777 – we have discussed this before. I read most of your comments. I know you are an intelligent person.
However there is a long response and a short response to your comment on Saturday.
The short answer is: You can’t keep pretending or inferring that you are a Labor supporter, but not voting for them. You can Vote 1for the Teal IND – that’s totally fine. But if you continually preference the Teal over the Labor candidate, there is only one way you can describe yourself – as a Teal supporter.
Longer response is follow when I find time