Some random scraps of reading to keep the ball rolling until normal service resumes:
• Casey Briggs at the ABC has a very nifty bit of data visualisation recording how seats moved between Labor, Coalition and – most tellingly “others” at the signpost elections of 1995, 2004, 2022 and 2025, which you can observe by moving the scroll bar from about a third to half way down. Sticking the change from 2022 to 2025, it can be noted that seats either moved leftwards from Coalition to Labor or upwards from either to “others”.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on the post-election reckoning following the Coalition’s evidently over-optimistic internal polling, a neat analogue to a similar failure in the Labor camp in 2019, both failures to some extent reflecting the errors in the published polling.
• I took part in a weekly Crikey debate feature on Friday, arguing to a brief in defending our electoral system. Kevin Bonham has a piece in The Guardian responding to those who have responded to a displeasing result by taking aim at preferential voting, which would have been a helpful thing for me to link to if the chronology had been right.
Confessions, New England is a seat of two sides.
In my days at UNE you’d be forgiven for thinking that many parts of Armidale more resembled a trendy outer Melbourne suburb such was the progressive and educated and urbane feel. Due in large part to the uni and the students and staff it used to attract it had an almost bohemian feel in some parts.
Labor used to win Armidale city booths a lot of the time but lose everything else.
Go to Walcha road where beetroot comes from and you see ‘end of the earth defined’- the large stretch of sub-alpine grazing lands (1100 to 1509 meters ASL) that sit higher than Thredbo village and invite noting but sheep and crows.
Beetroot is an alumni of Robb College- one of the 5 or so residential colleges. Known mostly for alleged b&s ball brother and sister nights of passion and a house union team. I’d say when I played for Austin college we beat them 3 of the 4 times.
A rough as guts residential house is Robb- beetroot defined.
Tamworth and the highland regions surrounding Armidale is all beetroot country. Red or dead .
Confessions 9:17 — They’d vote for Barnaby every time. He’s been involved in an absurd number of scandals, and yet still gets the same 50-55% primary vote as he did when he first dropped into the lower house (2017 by-election aside). Conservative country types tend to love mavericks like him, as they present as less beholden to the city elites.
leftieBrawler, you beat me to the punch. And interesting to see a more detailed perspective from someone who’s lived out that way.
Does anybody recall Country Labor?
Country Labor: a few sheep short in the top paddock
1 JANUARY 2003
Poor policies, factional infighting, recent poor candidate selections and having an image as a marketing gimmick has cost Country Labor and its parent Australian Labor Party (ALP) dearly in regional Australia, contends a Charles Sturt University (CSU) expert in rural and regional politics.
Dr Troy Whitford, a political scientist with the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at CSU in Wagga Wagga, believes the establishment of Country Labor in the late 1990s was part of the general political response to the ‘rural revolt’ and reflected the opinion backlash against John Howard’s Liberal – National government by regional voters across Australia.
https://news.csu.edu.au/latest-news/society/country-labor-a-few-sheep-short-in-the-top-paddock
Political Nightwatchman says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 8:59 pm
Peta-Kaye Croft benifited from the effect called the ‘Beattie Liberals’ in the golden age for Labor on the Gold Coast. And Labor won seats that were considered unthinkable in conservative strongholds on the Gold Coast including Broadwater, Burleigh, and Mudgeeraba.
Interestingly Croft endorsed independent Hetty Johnstons failed federal senate bid in 2019. So it looks like like she is no longer in the party.
中华人民共和国
Correct on all counts – she just never renewed her “ticket” after she lost the seat. Up the road, Margaret Keech, who won Albert in the same 2001 lanslide, and served in the Ministry in the Beattie and Bligh Governments, left the party in 2020 to run as an idependent in Macalister against the sitting Labor MP. She cam third with just over 10% of the vote.
Peter Lawlor who picked up Southport, defeating Mick Veivers, in that 2001 election, is the father of Ali France of Dickson fame.
I remember country Labor well.
Infact there were still a few old corflutes tucked away in the Gilmore secret storage facility a month ago.
Country Labor held seats back in the day when Labor still won in areas around orange, Bathurst, Nowra (Wayne Smith 1999)
And of course who could forget the legend himself the former, colourful and legendary member for Murray Darling Peter Blackie Black
aweirdnerd (she/her) says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:32 pm
Conservative country types tend to love mavericks like him, as they present as less beholden to the city elites.
It has SFA to do with city elites.. it’s all to do with blokes being blokes & getting legless on a Saturday night .. jumping in the Ute at round 3am & going hunting for wild pigs.. they see Barnaby as one of them
Tony Windsor was also a student at UNE. Agricultural Economics. Wright College at least initially.
Country Labor met a swift and forgettable demise in the early 2000s- something shit went down in the NT
They ain’t nats, they’re frikken NUTS!!!
Political Nightwatchmansays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 7:38 pm
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I suspect in the short term it will be good for both parties. Both of them will be able to pursue their policy agendas unencumbered by the other. Both of them will be able to parlay this into membership recruitment.
But, and it’s a big but, there will be difficult questions they will have to answer in the medium to longer term when they have to face elections.
Do they get back together before an election?
If so, they will have to harmonise their policy differences (not easy), which was presumably the thing that broke them up in the first place.
Can they agree on non-compete to avoid three cornered contests?
Who gets what portfolios and other baubles in the event of victory?
Do they stay apart before an election?
If so, how do they defend the policy differences?
How much can they minimise the three cornered contests?
How viable is it to sell the message, don’t worry about that, we’ll work all that out once we win government?
As you can probably gather, breaking up is easy. Getting back together is a whole lot harder.
Arky at 5.06 and 5.54 pm, Cat at 5.23 pm
Cat you made a very good point based on the revelation from Ms Savva.
If the Libs cut down their first female leader in the run to the next election they will struggle to attract female candidates, such as Ms Kapterian, and volunteers, let alone their erstwhile female voters.
Gusgate Taylor is the lazy one, not Sussan Ley. Precisely because nobody in their right mind could expect the Libs to win next time, she may have a smoother run as leader than it seems.
By contrast, the odds on Littleproud being Nats leader in 2028 are long.
Who’s Gina going to put in her handbag now?
Maybe she’ll bankroll Pauuulen openly now
Sceptic — yeah, that’s pretty much what I meant, but spelled out more clearly (and humorously).
Spence I did my first year at wrights college. It was where you went if your parents didnt own a multi generational farm and enigh cash to pay for your board and lodging in one of the other fully catered ones.
I enjoyed Austin- it had a shared eating hall with earl Paige I believe. A poor man’s sizzler or 83 restaurant every day and night. I remember catching a few rainbows out near ebor once and the good folk offered to cook it for me in the kitchen
Another cracker of a photo…. funeral anybody ?
And those bloody sleeves are still rolled ….. a party of amateurs
Upnorth: as someone from north Qld, you’d probably remember the Young Labor kid from Brisbane who ran in Hinchinbrook a few years back (Nat then, now KAP). When the local paper somehow found his phone number and interviewed him, they asked the obvious question “what connection do you have to Hinchinbrook?”
His answer: “I drove through it once on the way to Cairns.”
Labor vote sank like a stone, and I get the feeling that guy didn’t get to be a candidate again. There is such a thing as being too honest.
The Liberal party moving to the center; has to happen for them to survive; I can’t see the Liberal branches allowing it.
The Queenland NLP came about because of the collapse of the Liberals in Queensland.
Sky after dark is free in Rural Australia.
I can see why the old Liberals want this to happen; the ones that no longer show up to branch meetings because of the people they meet; their beloved party is being destroyed by the Nationals, Sky and religious nutters.
On reflection, I can’t see it making much difference. The Nationals are gone, but sky and the religious nutters survive.
Might be the time to shed a tear for the Liberal party that was.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-and-liberals-won-t-enter-into-new-federal-coalition-agreement-20250520-p5m0pd.html
Would Howard have made such a scathing public assessment if the Liberal leader were a man?
frednk says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:50 pm
It’s all down to the Little Rodent..
Ps is Gerard Henderson still around?… so many has-beens associated with the Right
It is all go to say that Liberal can move toward the political centre now, but they have to want to move to the political centre for it to happen. A very large minority of the party room doesn’t want to go in that direction.
I feel an internal split is the next thing on the cards…
Jesus, the parties will come back together well before the next election. The Nats can’t afford to run 3 cornered contests in seats they hold, and the Liberals need the Nationals to form government.
WTF is it with these frickin Baby Boomers running around with their hair on fire at the first sign of change?!
leftieBrawler @ #1405 Tuesday, May 20th, 2025 – 9:37 pm
Leftibrawler, how did Labor lose the skill of being photographed in front of a tractor? Being shown on an ad on NBN riding a horse past a silage bale in slow motion with awful muzak? Sending fridge magnets with the names of individual towns printed on them and showing up at the bush leagues?
How did this crucial cultural knowledge fade from the mind of the Labor party?
How much can they minimise the three cornered contests?
__________________________
Forget worrying about the 3-cornered contests. The Liberals should work to destroy the nats and take their seats. They will then no longer be a problem…
Sceptic says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:54 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:50 pm
It’s all down to the Little Rodent..
Agreed, it was a pity he wasn’t kicked out of the party for his racist crap back in the 80s.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:55 pm
Come back together in your dreams… the genie is out of the bottle & blown away in the wind…. The COALition was always built on a deceptive lie..
Bird of paradox says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:49 pm
Upnorth: as someone from north Qld, you’d probably remember the Young Labor kid from Brisbane who ran in Hinchinbrook a few years back (Nat then, now KAP). When the local paper somehow found his phone number and interviewed him, they asked the obvious question “what connection do you have to Hinchinbrook?”
His answer: “I drove through it once on the way to Cairns.”
Labor vote sank like a stone, and I get the feeling that guy didn’t get to be a candidate again. There is such a thing as being too honest.
中华人民共和国
Yes cobber a true story. We nearly took Hinchinbrook in 1992 when old Bill Eaton just lost by just over 2% following the end of the Gerrymander. Bills’s old seat of Mourilyan which had held since 1980 was abolished.
Bill was a proper Gentleman and raised 4 kids when his wife died young. Bill worked as a labourer, fencer, timber cutter, stationhand and machinery operator, and from 1963 he was the leading hand of a live-line gang with the Far North Queensland Electricity Board.
Bill served as Minister for Lands in the Goss Government and was fond of roll your own durries. His advice to budding MP’s he met during his travels in regional Queensland “If you get elected – don’t let the bastards change you”.
leftieBrawler @ #1401 Tuesday, May 20th, 2025 – 9:29 pm
LB: I concur. A wee while ago I did some locums at Armidale. I used to drive home to Newcastle along Thunderbolt’s Way – via Walcha. Armidale was quite a lot of fun (away from ED), as was blasting along Thunderbolt’s in my old Forester GT, but I could imagine the banjos, had I hit a wombat, cow or Beetroot on the way through. Any chance of a Country Labor candidate for Cowper (coz Caz ain’t playing again)?
Lead in the Oz – I smell bad blood….
“Three-year Noalition: Liberals-Nationals divorce set to last to next poll
Sussan Ley intends not to re-form a Coalition with David Littleproud before the 2028 election as she moves to seize on the Nationals’ shock split to promote up to nine additional Liberal MPs to her new opposition frontbench.”
In the Oz. Albo will be playing Merry.
“The damaging Coalition divorce in the wake of Anthony Albanese’s May 3 election landslide victory, which has delivered Labor at least 93 seats, will also trigger a brawl between the parties over staffing allocations and resources.
The Australian on Tuesday revealed Mr Littleproud had been in touch with the Prime Minister to inform him of the Nationals’ decision, while senior Liberal figures were also talking with government ministers.
While the Liberal Party maintains its status as the official opposition party, meaning it should receive about 21 per cent of the staffing budget compared with the government, the Nationals will ask Mr Albanese to provide them with an adequate staffing allocation. “
Jim Chalmers: “This is a nuclear meltdown and the coalition is now nothing more than a smoking ruin”
https://youtube.com/watch?v=7gOOqjNdHsI&t=1192s
19:50 if the link doesn’t take you there
“Jesus, the parties will come back together well before the next election. The Nats can’t afford to run 3 cornered contests in seats they hold, and the Liberals need the Nationals to form government.”
@Confessions
But the Liberals aren’t likely to form government after the next election anyway. And they can afford to wait and see how this plays out. The Nationals won’t nab seats off the Liberals but Liberals will nab seats off the Nats. I’m wondering the Liberals don’t need the Nats as much as you let on. Particularly when they can approach the Nationals after the election if they needed them to form government anyway.
Maybe they dont get back together for the next election….they wont win either way. However, IF the libs pick up 5 or 6 seats from a Labor Gov seeking and getting a third term, then being a little closer and also facing the prospect of losing again in 2031 may concentrate their minds to patch things up
Upnorth — is there precedent on the staffing allocation? IIRC Queensland 2012? If not, Albanese would be smart to deny it perhaps.
Pete Seeger Melbourne 7 24 1963. The audience is the interesting bit. This is the parents of us geriatrics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYe-bLaqhhY&list=RDBcbqCssiBUc&index=13
At this time Pete Seeger was banned from USA radio stations. So much for the first amendment.
https://www.thenation.com/article/society/pete-seeger-forever-stamp/
Alpha Zerosays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:58 pm
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History shows that three cornered contests are bad for both Libs and Nats and are to be avoided.
aweirdnerd (she/her)says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 10:25 pm
Upnorth — is there precedent on the staffing allocation? IIRC Queensland 2012? If not, Albanese would be smart to deny it perhaps.
__________________
Why deny it? Literally the first thing the Teals demanded last parliament wad more staff. Just give everyone all the arse kissers and minions they want (though if possible, smaller offices so they have to smell eachother…).
“History shows that three cornered contests are bad for both Libs and Nats and are to be avoided.”
@King OMalley
The Liberals will always beat out the Nationals in three cornered contests being the senior party. There are some who argue to avoid three cornered contests is to merge the parties. Others argue having a coalition maximises the vote and makes it more difficult for a further right party stealing ground such as One Nation.
Bizzcan — well that answers the precedent question. I guess it’s uncertain whether it’s good for Labor to have them stay split, anyway. I was thinking that denying the Nats puts pressure on them to rejoin the Coalition, which would potentially keep the Libs away from the centre. Or at least make the antics look even more ridiculous.
Who knows where things will go in three years, anyway? Libs have pressures pushing them in all directions. Should be entertaining, if nothing else.
If there’s no coalition next election, would there still be a LNP senate ticket in Qld, or two separate Lib and Nat ones technically involving members of the same party? (I imagine that’s a question everyone involved doesn’t want to have to answer.)
Nats have a lot to lose in 2028 – they’ve got Ross Cadell, Bridget McKenzie and Matt Canavan up for re-election, with only Susan McDonald staying on (Perrin Davey lost her seat in NSW, while they got an unwinnable spot in Vic). Cadell and McKenzie are in parliament because the coalition guarantees them winnable seats – they’ll be kissing that goodbye. Canavan’s the only one with more than a vague chance of hanging on.
Desert Qlder says Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:15 pm
There aren’t actually that many FIFO mine workers in Australia. And a fair portion are in WA, which is not currently a happy hunting ground for the Libs. Nor are they necessarily in the outer suburban fringes.
Am I the only one that thinks this decision to end the Coalition is going to start a chain reaction?
First, I see the LNP in Queensland becoming quite fraught, potentially splitting entirely… but even if the LNP doesn’t split back out, I see repercussions at the federal level – it’s a lot easier to follow the informal agreement about whether to sit in the Liberal or National party room when they’re ultimately part of the same “party” and mostly have the same policies because they’re in a coalition. If the Liberals shift to the left and the Nationals to the right, LNP people may find themselves reconsidering and “defecting”, which will further strain the LNP.
With some on the far right of the LNP but currently Libs tempted to switch to the Nats, you’ve got a formula for the balance in the Liberal party shifting leftward. For example, I could see Garth Hamilton and Scott Buchholz making the switch to the Nats, while I could see Andrew Willcox switch to the Libs.
Once this kind of switch triggers in the first place, I could see other Libs and Nats questioning whether they’re in the right party. In particular, I could see some of the National Right members of the Liberal Party considering defecting to the Nationals.
What could be quite a seismic shift is if enough defect to move the Nationals into the stronger position. Some of the more interesting possibilities including Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie. In the House, it looks like the Liberals currently have 28 seats and Nationals 15 seats. This means that a net defection to Nationals of just 7 Liberals is enough to put the Nationals ahead, and into the formal Opposition position.
Considering Ley’s clearly going to try to move the Liberals to the centre, while Littleproud is happy to keep the Nationals to the right, I could definitely see this kind of defection happen.
There’s a second variant of this sequence. Ley moves toward the centre first, then gets rolled by Taylor, who drives the party hard to the right… and the moderates leave the party, fearing a final wipeout under Taylor. The biggest difference between the scenarios is the exact balance, due to the unaligned and Centre-Right/Centrist members potentially being in a different place depending on exactly how it flows.
In either scenario, I could see some kind of agreement happening between the moderates and the Teals (and probably Sharkie), whether they form a new party together or they just form a bloc of sorts.
Whichever path taken, I’m essentially seeing the Liberal schisms becoming an irreparable split, and the Liberals no longer looking like they currently do.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan says Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 10:14 pm
This probably helps Sussan Lay shore up her leadership. If Angus Taylor tries to bring her down then she might argue he’ll bring the Nationals back, which means a demotion for nine Liberals.
The money that owns the Liberals & National parties will not allow a permanent split.
Ley is a lame duck. She will get forced out in order to return the parties together and keep moving further right.
Glen O says Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 11:00 pm
Taylor and Hastie both have PM ambitions. They must know there’s Buckley’s chance of a National being PM (except temporarily). I can’t see them switching.
aweirdnerd (she/her) says:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 10:25 pm
Upnorth — is there precedent on the staffing allocation? IIRC Queensland 2012? If not, Albanese would be smart to deny it perhaps.
中华人民共和国
I think it’s up to the Government. Perhaps the Government could reduce the resources of the Liberals given their decreased numbers and allocate them to the National Party. That would put the cat amongst the Pigeons I think.
bcsays:
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 10:56 pm
Desert Qlder says Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 9:15 pm
The Liberals clearly thought there was a sizable “cultural mining worker” cohort out there. It was either illusory or he was not skilful enough to harness it. Maybe in the end, those same blokes (and their families) looked at Labor’s platform and saw something more concrete.
There aren’t actually that many FIFO mine workers in Australia. And a fair portion are in WA, which is not currently a happy hunting ground for the Libs. Nor are they necessarily in the outer suburban fringes.
______________________
So thats a term I use (well, I made up…).
Yes, there are only about 300k workers who regular job is in the resources sector, with more (thought not that much more) in support.
But when I write “cultural mining worker” I emphasise the “cultural” – in my thesis it is the Australian version of the US “self identified rurality”, but Aussie in the sense that I’m referring to a specific (but large) groups:
– blue collar skilled workers who see themselves as an “extension” of the resources sector (for example, infrastructure construction workers; manufacturing workers/SMEs doing things like metal fabrication). Actually being connected to the resources sector is immaterial, but they “believe” mining dollars somehow funnel to their jobs.
– broader workers/families who, while don’t think they directly get mining dollars, but benefit (or think they benefit) from the general prosperity the sector brings.
As a practical example – many/most Western Australians are “cultural mining workers”.
In the east coast, this could include (or the LNP may have believed existed) outer suburb working families doing things like building infrastructure (that mining/agriculture trucks “might” use), or the shop/retail workers that service mining/agriculture business.
I can say with absolutely certainty this works for the west coast… a bit ambiguous if it works for the east. But my new belief is that LNP HQ thought the same as I, and made the policy bet on it (who builds Nuclear… why the second largest industry does!)
I’m assuming we’re now going to see a stop from the right to criticism of preferential voting.
Wombat your reminiscing of the thunderbolts- bucketts way B road through Gloucester brings back lots of memories. At the time circa 2003 the old man lived in Belmont so I’d do that trip to break up going from jervis bay to Armidale in the one session.
All fun and games up to the plateau to the top dale road locality where there is a long ridge over 1400 meters high and arguably the most regularly snowing region in Australia north of the Barrington tops. Once you hit those long stretches into walcha you are lured into a false sense of security and no doubt your GT forester was the car for the road until old mate highway patrol from Armidale lined you up in a blind corner.
Did you ever experience the Armidale ED during the February O week?.
I suspect the vibrancy of the on campus drinking vibe has long-since made way for yet another defacto migration office but I’m sure you’d still have experienced your fair share of acute renal failures from excessive fruity lexia indulgence from the green 18 yr old kids away from mummy and daddy for the first time ?!
Regarding Cowper there is no way the nats or the cnts could make another cycle. They are just scrapping in on 52-48. I know for a fact Sussex st and the national executive have been surmising it for some time. I think they are trying to formulate a major project of sorts to compliment a serious tilt. With an urban area at 100k almost now it’s just a matter of time. Question is would it be a teal, prominent non-aligned ind or Labor?
Glen O at 11 pm
No, clearly J. Howard is very worried.
The Liberals are now in an existential crisis. Even D. Sharma almost noticed it.
This is why they have chosen Ley, and in her own view she isn’t dispensable.
What you forget in your speculation is the organisational aspect. The Libs are amateurs organisationally. Most of the journos now readily admit that.
But the Nationals? They are no better and in the glare of sunlight are worse.
After all, it was their nuclear policy that gifted Labor their strongest ad.
The Nationals claim they had a good campaign, but it was patchy. Yes they retained Cowper, but they lost Calare to Gee, who rebuked them for their racist refusal to tolerate the Voice.
The Nats also lost a NSW senator.
When is the last time the Nats won a seat from Labor? Very rarely happens.
It was probably Hogan in Page, but they may lose it to Labor when he retires, most probably by 2028.
That is why the RW Libs won’t join the Nats, because they are just a rump.
Senator J. Price has Malcolm Fraser’s ego without an ounce of his ability, but she has landed herself in the Tory party with a very slight chance of a distant recovery, not the bumpkins.
If she is not returning to the Nats (who wouldn’t like her anyway), then no RW Libs will jump to the Nats.
Also, the Teals will never join with the so-called Lib moderates (T. Wilson!). They are the fiercest competitors.
The Libs remain a historically urban party now largely banished from the cities, and led by a rural woman who will be far from a pushover for the RW rump, however large, in their party.
The point of an existential crisis is that the organisation’s future is at risk. In this respect Dutton doubled down on Morrison’s character flaws.
After the 2022 election the Libs were in denial about losing their heartland.
After this election their leadership is not in denial, but that may be too late.
Ley is a spunk in the same tradition of the stunning and ravishing former NSW opposition leader one K. Chikarovski. If I were of their vintages they’d be in trouble !