Some random scraps of reading to keep the ball rolling until normal service resumes:
• Casey Briggs at the ABC has a very nifty bit of data visualisation recording how seats moved between Labor, Coalition and – most tellingly “others” at the signpost elections of 1995, 2004, 2022 and 2025, which you can observe by moving the scroll bar from about a third to half way down. Sticking the change from 2022 to 2025, it can be noted that seats either moved leftwards from Coalition to Labor or upwards from either to “others”.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on the post-election reckoning following the Coalition’s evidently over-optimistic internal polling, a neat analogue to a similar failure in the Labor camp in 2019, both failures to some extent reflecting the errors in the published polling.
• I took part in a weekly Crikey debate feature on Friday, arguing to a brief in defending our electoral system. Kevin Bonham has a piece in The Guardian responding to those who have responded to a displeasing result by taking aim at preferential voting, which would have been a helpful thing for me to link to if the chronology had been right.
From a long term green voter in Griffith passed on to me. Unsure if this has been posted before but it makes complete sense to me where the Greens were and now are. Have they the capacity to reflect. If the north coast greens are an example I doubt it
This morning I listened to a podcast in which Richard DeNatale was interviewed about the poor result in the recent election. He dismissed the analysis of pundits as did Adam Bandt when I heard him interviewed by Fran Kelly. DeNatale indicated the party was seeking feedback directly from electors.
I am a voter in the Griffith electorate.
The most significant factor in my not voting Green was the position your party adopted on the Voice to Parliament. Without raking through the coals, the Uluṟu Statement was developed through a long and consultative process among First Nations people across Australia. When it was finalised, of the hundreds there, six people walked out because of their disagreement with the statement. Among them was your former member Lidia Thorpe. I wrote to both Max Chandler- Mather and Larissa Waters abut my concerns. Both held fast to their position of ignoring the views of elders from Queensland and other leaders who participated in the process. Max indicated in his first letter to me that he was happy to proceed under ‘ the excellent leadership of Lidia Thorpe’. The ultimate voting pattern of First Nations people in the referendum revealed how out of step the Greens were with the views of FirstNations people in Australia. And while ultimately the Greens supported a YES vote, it was too late, you’d already added to the confusion. Moreover the support was mealy mouthed. During the campaign I received a community newsletter from Max Chandler-Mather in which he identified the important federal issues he’d be addressing at a forthcoming meeting. The referendum did not rate a mention.
And then there was the position taken by MCM ( and the Greens?) in relation to the CFMEU. I was a unionist for my entire working life. I celebrate the ascension of Sally McManus to the position of Secretary. She is incredibly impressive and she was prepared to take a position against the CFMEU whose most well known representative until recently was John Setka. As revealed by investigative journalist Nick Mackenzie, Setka and his cronies were accepting bribes from a range of companies many connected to bikies and organised crime. Setka has also been convicted of violence against his wife. So MCM supports this group rather than the first woman to lead the Union movement in Australia. Is that the message the Greens want to give the women of Australia?
And Housing…To be honest, I think the early stages of this campaign were excellent in pushing the government to go further but you lost me when the housing NGOs reached the stage of pleading with the Greens to stop blocking the bill. And again, you remained intransigent in the face of your natural constituency.
I’m not sure that this is the kind of feedback DeNatale was seeking. I hope you find it useful.
“Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on the post-election reckoning following the Coalition’s evidently over-optimistic internal polling, a neat analogue to a similar failure in the Labor camp in 2019 …”
… and a replay of Ms Maiden’s very own retailing of the Coalition’s over-optimistic internal polling in 2022.
On multiple occasions in the lead-up to the last election (in particular, in her weekly spot with Fran Kelly on Radio National), Maiden breathlessly declared that her (unnamed) contacts inside the Liberal party had private polling that made them confident.
Having had her fingers burnt by being led up the garden path last time, Ms Maiden is well qualified to report on the Liberals once again dismissing the public polls in favour of their own.
“Rose-coloured glasses, you put them on and everything is fine …”
Trawler: “… Richard DeNatale was interviewed about the poor result in the recent election.”
On the AEC’s current counting, the Greens’ primary vote copped a swing of (wait for it …) 0.09 percentage points.
Maintaining vote share is a ‘poor result’? Please explain?
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-31496-NAT.htm
Oliver Sutton @ #3 Sunday, May 18th, 2025 – 5:32 am
Losing 3/4 HoR seats and compared to Labor’s historically high vote and seat tally.
You’re welcome. 🙂
North Coast Trawler,
Well said.
But do you think The Greens in general and the Greens on this board, like Pegasus, Astrobleme, Nicholas and Oliver Sutton, will take your thoughtful and sophisticated opinion to heart, reflect and act on it appropriately? Not on your nelly! They have taken the Greens pill and it will forever cloud their rational judgement it seems.
From the previous thread per Omar Comin’:
Putin’s peace talks negotiator claimed Russians have extra chromosome, apparently thinks that’s good:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/16/russia-ukraine-putin-peace-negotiator-vladimir-medinsky/
I actually do think they have an extra chromosome. It’s Br1. The Brainwashing chromosome. 😐
North Coast Trawler
You have articulated the issues well. I would add the Greens behavior towards Andrews when he was doing his best to keep COVID under control so the hospitals could cope.
Theres a long form interview with Richard DeNatale on one of the recent Guardian podcasts. What struck me is that he spoke as if he was still a politician. No self reflection, no willingness to cast blame on the Greens or their candidates, all the reasons for the loss of 3 lower house seats were externalities. Just a bit lame in my view.
The lib/nats leaning Resolve and Freshwater polls were the outliners
Opinion polls were claiming this mythical swing from Labor to liberal party were outliners , particular in Victoria
Federal lib/nats were not losing seats and gaining seats were outliners, particular in Victoria
Federal Labor losing upto 8 seats in Victoria and not gaining seats were outliners
Narrative of the opinion polling were showing a minority government were outliners
It may or may not happen again in a federal election , 2pp for Labor can get over 53/47
North Coast Trawlersays:
Sunday, May 18, 2025 at 4:28 am
[Have they the capacity to reflect. If the north coast greens are an example I doubt it]
The inability to reflect is not confined to the Greens.
Most elected politicians become caught in the “Canberra bubble”, the media melee, the party shenanigans and are divorced from reality.
The election displayed a plethora of unexpected results and plenty to reflect upon.
The Greens are seemingly caught in the allure of being significant and at times appear to neglect some of their stated objectives.
The Greens suggest confusion.
The Nationals seem at odds with the benefits of new technology and energy advances. More confusion .
The Liberals, so early after such a monumental defeat, are intent on providing more of the same, seemingly unaware of a concept called reflection.
The Dutton/Ley election strategy just screamed confusion.
The Teals and their insistence of being independent offer no clear path to anything.
Albanese and Labor stuck to their clear and “let’s not spook the horses” approach and the election results strongly suggest that the strategy worked.
It seems that Albanese is aware that it’s impossible to satisfy all people all the time.
Some just don’t get it.
William Bowe you offered an excellent defence of our electoral system and the structure of the parliament in your article on Crikey, and it sure is nice to not have to admit that through gritted teeth.
C@tmomma so much moronic stuff comes out of (particularly the russian side of) that conflict that I’d be spamming if I reposted even a quarter of it. But that I could not resist 😆
World News & Politics Patrol:
FBI Agent goes public with Russian intelligence operation that hooked Musk and Thiel: https://kyivinsider.com/fbi-agent-goes-public-with-russian-intelligence-operation-that-hooked-musk-and-theil/?
Trump does not see Putin as obstacle to peace and criticises Zelenskyy: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/05/17/7512638/
The chilling moment in Russia-Ukraine peace talks – as Putin makes mockery of Trump’s efforts to end war: https://news.sky.com/story/how-putin-has-made-a-mockery-of-trumps-efforts-to-end-ukraine-war-13369376
Keir Starmer: For too long, Britain has been addicted to cheap overseas labour — while 1 in 8 of our own young people aren’t in education, employment or training. I’m putting our young people first, investing in skills they need and ending our dependence on foreign labour.: https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1923650746760757606
Food For Millions Rots in Storage After Trump’s USAID Cuts: https://www.thedailybeast.com/food-for-millions-rots-in-storage-after-trumps-usaid-cuts/
White House Freaks Out at Don Jr. Being Compared to Hunter: https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-freaks-out-at-don-jr-being-compared-to-hunter/
Trump tells Walmart to ‘eat the tariffs’ instead of raising prices: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tells-walmart-eat-tariffs-instead-raising-prices-2025-05-17/
Trump Lies That His Bill Cuts Taxes For Everyone, When It Raises Them on the Poor: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-lies-tax-cuts-rich-increase-poor-1235341367/
FBI Disbanding Public Corruption Squad In Its Washington Office, Sources Say: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/-fbi-public-corruption-squad-disbanded_n_68279b5ee4b0ae2fc26fac16?origin=bottom2-recirc
One dead after bomb explodes outside reproductive center in Downtown Palm Springs: https://thepalmspringspost.com/one-dead-after-bomb-explodes-outside-reproductive-center-in-downtown-palm-springs/
Tornado-spawning storms leave 25 dead in 2 states and swaths of destruction across central US: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/17/weather/tornadoes-severe-weather-deaths-climate-hnk
“Richard DeNatale”
If you are going to pass an opinion or character assessment of Richard Di Natale, at least spell his name correctly.
Will transparency and accountability increase? Don’t hold your breath.
Surge in refusals for freedom of information undermines trust in Australian government, watchdog warns
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/18/surge-in-refusals-for-freedom-of-information-undermines-trust-in-australian-government-watchdog-warns
“The Australian government is refusing freedom of information requests at a rate not seen for a decade, data shows, prompting concerns for transparency and accountability.
Data held by the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner, the watchdog overseeing the FoI system, revealed the proportion of FoI requests being completely refused has shot up to 27% in the December 2024 quarter.
That is the highest level since at least 2014-15, historical records show.”
The Hill:
House Republicans will reconvene on Sunday evening to find a path to pass President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” after encountering a hurdle during a key vote on Friday. Five fiscal hawks, arguing that the legislation insufficiently addressed work requirements for Medicaid and the federal deficit, blocked the measure from making it out of the House Budget Committee. The final vote tally was 16-21. House Republican leadership is racing to pass the bill with a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) hammered the bill, saying it is a “slap in the face” that will add trillions of dollars to the national debt. “The problem is it’s asking conservatives, like myself, to raise the debt ceiling $5 trillion. That’s historic. No one’s ever raised the debt ceiling that much,” Paul told Fox News’s Ainsley Earhardt on Thursday. The Kentucky senator is set to appear on ABC’s “This Week” where he will likely discuss the pending legislation in the House chamber.
Democrats are facing different headaches as questions around former President Biden’s mental acuity are back in the spotlight. Excerpts from the new book “Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again,” by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Axios’s Alex Thompson, published in various outlets this week, detail Biden’s inner circle ignoring the former president vulnerabilities and taking steps to bar even some of his staff from seeing his shortcomings.
One excerpt, which was obtained by The Guardian, revealed that one ex-senior Biden aide told the book’s authors that “we attempted to shield him from his own staff so many people didn’t realize the extent of the decline beginning in 2023.” Another excerpt, which was revealed by Tapper on CNN, said that Biden’s top aides iced out Cabinet members during the second half of his Oval Office term.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who was a 2024 Biden campaign surrogate, said this week that it is “obvious now” Biden “was not in a condition” to run for reelection and that the party has to admit it made a “mistake.”
I generally don’t venture into these open threads to fight over policy (as to which, I mostly just want the left to all get along), but since the Greens thing implicates pseph/math stuff, I feel it worth my while.
It is a quirk of the preferential voting system that the Greens captured three seats in Brisbane last election. Had any of those three candidates been directly pitted in a one-up election against Labor, they’d have lost by miles because so many Liberal supporters preferred Labor (as we saw in this year’s Griffith result)– but there is a narrow window in which the Greens can eliminate the Labor candidate at the 3CP stage while those Liberal preferences are still not operational, then turn around and use Labor preferences to take the seat. Those Brisbane seats hit that narrow window and voila, suddenly three Greens are in the House.
That result depends on a strong Liberal showing to take a large percentage of right-wing preferences out of action at the 3CP stage. It’s essentially a fluke– it’s the voting system not really working correctly. Which, fair enough, Arrow’s Theorem and all that (and it’s certainly far better than the ghastly FPTP, which would have installed a Liberal that would lose heads-up to EITHER of the other two candidates), but the point is that that outcome depended less on the Greens’ own performance and more on the Liberals’ performance, and the Libs lost so much ground to Labor this election that two of the three Greens seats were wiped out (and the third nearly so) in the process.
The good news if you are a Greens supporter is that this outcome essentially has nothing to do with anything specific the Greens did or could have done. The bad news for everyone leftward is that the incentives this situation creates strike me as– how shall I put this– not good. It’s bad for both left politics and democracy writ large to have parties essentially rewarded for disrupting beneficial legislation that they ostensibly support.
The Greens have more of a legitimate beef about Melbourne, where (whether due to gerrymandering or bad luck) they had plenty of support to continue to hold a seat, but managed instead to just barely fail to take two seats. Such is the way of the world in single-member districts.
Goll says,
Albanese and Labor stuck to their clear and “let’s not spook the horses” approach and the election results strongly suggest that the strategy worked.
This statement reminds me, while we’re talking about reflection, in the fall-out of the Trump 2.0 election, it took a while for the left to begin to see that Trump won because the Dems use of the word ‘weird’ as well as the implicit mocking approach towards the Trump base echoed ‘The Deplorables’ quote from Hillary in the 2016 election.
Nothing makes a voter what to ‘own’ the socialists that to tell them regularly that they are ridiculous and worthy of derision.
To Goll’s quote above…don’t scare/upset the horses, treat those who don’t vote for you with respect ( remember Albo calming the Boos for Dutton).
The Greens need to adopt an approach that doesn’t reek of inner city condescension , and the blocking and abuse they engage in is part and parcel of that condescension.
I too have been looking at the SAD video clips from the election night and I like the young bloke , Tom doing the data work. Very un SAD-like imo.
“Putin’s peace talks negotiator claimed Russians have extra chromosome, apparently thinks that’s good”
Double-Y syndrome? (Alien 3):
Thanks goes to both William and Kevin for their defence of our electoral system. There have been a significant amount of sour grapes from pro-LNP and pro-Greens media questioning the result and system because”their side” went backwards”.
Labor’s changing face doesn’t go to the top
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-18/labor-could-face-long-road-to-second-female-leader/105294772
“Across the House of Representatives, women will occupy just shy of half the seats (46 per cent). Women will make up about 60 per cent of the Senate.
Despite the Labor caucus and cabinet reflecting the Australian public more than ever before — and far outstripping gender balance in their opponents — internally, frustrations are growing that Labor’s top leadership positions aren’t keeping pace with the change.
And the people, they say, who lose out are those who don’t fit in the old boys’ club.
:::
But what hasn’t gone unnoticed within his ranks is that when given the chance to promote women, he opted for a lower percentage than even the old boys’ club of the factions put forward.
:::
A woman will again one day lead Labor. Whoever she is, to get there she’ll face no small task overcoming the party’s old boys’ club.”
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup HH.
North Coast Trawler at 4:28am, thanks for a well written and informative post. Qld and Victorian Greens especially would do well to read it.
Dog’s Brunch @ #18 Sunday, May 18th, 2025 – 8:14 am
I’m trying to understand if you are suggesting that the USA rejected democracy and entered a fascist dark age because libs were mean, Dog’s Brunch. Don’t worry I won’t put too much effort into it.
I would like to thank Paul Thomas @ 8:12 am for his dispassionate and psephology-based post.
‘North Coast Trawler says:
Sunday, May 18, 2025 at 4:28 am
…’
————–
Well-considered post, IMO. Other Greens mistakes can be fixed in the immediate to medium term. The way in which they helped Dutton destroyed the Voice will not be fixed in our generation, I believe.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, May 18, 2025 at 8:05 am
“Richard DeNatale”
If you are going to pass an opinion or character assessment of Richard Di Natale, at least spell his name correctly.
I will always know him as the Black Wiggle..
OC, got it in one!
Thanks North Coast Trawler. Friends who vote Greens share similar sentiments. Especially on housing.
Paul Thomas says:
Sunday, May 18, 2025 at 8:12 am
… but the point is that that outcome depended less on the Greens’ own performance and more on the Liberals’ performance, …
===================
Yeah. Nah.
The Greens primary in all three lost seats went backwards. This is actually a minor point but it bears on the main point. The main point is that the Greens need regularly to be getting the highest primary in seats to reliably win seats. This is true for the Liberals, the Nationals and Labor as well as the Greens. The national fact of the matter is that the Greens came third in the vast majority of the 150 seats.
The other issue with this approach is that not a single Greens has in any way, shape or form acknowledged any shortcoming on the part of the Greens either during the last government or during the campaign.
This means one of two things. They are perfect or they mistakenly think they are perfect.
Dr D on you post commenting on my view about future Greens behaviour, it is not just the way they vote that matters. IMO, it is the way they posture, stunt and verbalize.
Pegasus,
[Despite the Labor caucus and cabinet reflecting the Australian public more than ever before — and far outstripping gender balance in their opponents — internally, frustrations are growing that Labor’s top leadership positions aren’t keeping pace with the change.]
Are you doing “humour” now?
Dog’s Brunch good to know, I welcome self identification by MAGA dumbclucks because we get a lot of posts and so you just have to scroll past a certain proportion.
Jacob Greber is kicking some goals for the ABC…
And should the conservative forces start to accept the obvious – an orderly winding up of the Menzies experiment is in the interests of them, and the people they purport to represent.
Structurally the omens are not good for the Liberals, particularly outside Queensland. In Victoria the party has been in the doldrums for what feels like decades. May 3 was a bitter rebuke, with Labor enjoying a swing.
In NSW, the news is equally bleak for Liberals, with party membership sliding towards 6000, according to one person familiar with the numbers.
For context, research leaked to a newspaper indicated the NSW branch membership was just shy of 13,000 in 2023, a more than 50 per cent fall in two years.
Furthermore, it stood at 70,000 in 1970, when Australia’s total population was well under half what it is today.
The decline is calamitous for the Liberal Party for a number of reasons. But the most immediate is that it’s happening at the worst possible time.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-18/liberals-nationals-membership-numbers-net-zero-base/105282062
More Greber…
Nationals are understood to be demanding seven shadow cabinet spots and up to three assistant ministerial jobs, alongside all the staffing resources such appointments unlock.
But how does Ley — who beat Taylor thanks to the party’s moderate wing, where support for climate policy action is strongest — accept such demands if the Nationals also scrap net zero?
Some Nationals point out that keeping nuclear policy would be a de facto scrapping of net zero as the technology would mean Australia misses its mid-century target. Farmers would be among the first in the firing line if trade allies retaliate with carbon penalties.
It’s a clash of policy, ideology and personality that suggests things are more likely to get worse for the Coalition before they improve.
Both are a long way from working out how to rebuild their political movements and take on Labor’s dominance.
Diabolical indeed.
First time in three years Russia and Ukraine have met.Well done Trump!
India- Pakistan-well done Vance etc for intervening early.
Iran -USA talks going well if Obama can get a peace prize for doing nothing then Trump can get one for doing stuff.Houthis silent.
Noticed Starmer a dud is on the nose already bigtime with the public.
Instead the Brexit man is as powerful as ever.
Julianne Schultz is the author of The Idea of Australia and Steel City Blues
Anthony Albanese has an opportunity to build a legacy of real reform. Will he take it?
“It is important to remember that despite the overwhelming numbers in the House of Representatives, many Labor members found their way to the government benches with the help of those who voted for Green and independent candidates. This will now play out in the Senate, which is again poised to be the place where the innovative ideas generated on the ground by experts and through the committee process find their way into law and a new Australian way where a strong party listens and produces a national legacy, turning crisis into opportunity.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/18/anthony-albanese-has-an-opportunity-to-build-a-legacy-of-real-reform-will-he-take-it
Paul Thomas
That is not true.
It would be true, if whichever candidate got the highest first preferences then compete for preferences, but these counts are only shortcuts.
The first short cut is to count the first preferences and then allocate the preference according to the AEC guess of who the two competing candidates are. This is completed on the night and ends the show if there is no way a third candidate can overtake either with preferences.
Yes the conclusion is not based on adding things up but on historic data on how preferences flowed and data on what is happening on the night. This is what Andrew Green and William do, and why seats are declared with small percentages of votes counted, and who won can be declared 2 hours after the polls close.
Then there is step two, another short cut, the short cut works if there is no way preferences could bring someone ahead of the actual two leading candidate in play.
The long counts occur when this can happen and these are the three cornered contests. There is only a handful of these, and yes Greens are involved in many of the few.
In the end the AEC does a full preferences distribution, and this proves the shortcuts all worked, and provides data for next time. The shortcuts working is a forgone conclusion based on what is known as they go through the process.
In the case of the Greens, it comes down to how people allocate their preferences. Less people who did not vote Labor 1 preference Labor above Greens and the greens are losing as a result.
The Greens need to face reality. Stopping good legislation is not a winning strategy. Trying to blame the voting system is nonsense.
China’s debt to GDP ratio climbed from 300% last April to 309% this April. Equivalent to $58 trillion.
They are the official figures. The real figures? Who knows?
Unemployment is guessed to be around 54 million with the current trade war adding somewhere between 5 and 10 million.
Dr Doolittle
(from last thread)
Yes, you are correct about all this, particularly about the need to increase unemployment benefits.
Interesting summary courtesy of North Coast Trawler-
Luigi Smith’s final comment yesterday ( can’t find it now) along the lines of- may Albanese give the Greens the opportunity and the Greens take the responsibility ( with legislation). Progressive voters live in hope that this may be the most progressive government in decades.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/election-plus-two-weeks-open-thread/#comment-4532634
The voters have spoken and most of the counting seems done.
It is not a surprise to me that even ‘Denial to Euphrates River Albo …’ got an extension, with the alternative being Reichspotato.
[Unlike, Recession We Did Not Want To Have vs the Rodent HoWARd, Juliar vs Tonicchio comes to mind.]
The various polling aggregators/ pollsters seemed to get the result correctly, just not the magnitude.
After going through voting guides and looking at the detailed backgrounds/ propositions, I still preferenced progressive if less so community or conservative independents. (Especially not for example previous conservatives going independent.
I deprioritised JLN, as in Stinky Fishies, but mostly them allowing a full of shit state gov in TAS (stadium, ferries, NFI about holistic, regional, sustainable development and especially infrastructure beyond blowing up humanity, clearing land, climate disruption resources …), to some extend or other.)
And shit lite gov before full of shit opp in terms of major parties. The likes of ToP/ UAP/ PUP, PHON etc went last.
I continue to use risks/ threats such as governance (Ersatz fICAC/ CIC, campaign finance reform, FoI/ whistleblowers/journos/ activists, constitution changes such as flag, recall provisions/ popular initiatives/ referendums, monarchy/ republic, TRC/ makarrata/ treat/ sovereignty/ reparations), powershift (BRICS, $$Ns, non-aligned, no longer allies and partners and friends), climate (gas before newer forms of nuclear besides renewables), inequality (JobSeeker is below the poverty line, and unlike 2019 it seems CGT, franking credit, negative gearing are here to stay, given automation/ cybernisation there needs to be more taxation from organisations/ haves so individuals/ have nots can get childcare, green new deal/ universal basic income, defined benefit pensions floor below contribution based superannuation), health (our nearest GP within 30 minutes has gone mixed billing, Medicare Urgent Care is further away than that, the nearest capital city hospital from here often sees the rescue helo offload an ambulance at the local cricket ground, Medicare Dental) … though not necessarily in that order.
May be I’ll narrow that to people and eco systems before capital. Amazon’s Bezos’ belle having a hen night in space, really?
If this election was the first where Gen Z/ millennials, and they seem more progressive/ socially democratic rather than conservative/ liberally democratic were the biggest voting blocks, then I’d imagine they will also be next time around.
Presumably TDJT 2.0’s regime was also a factor?
Albo talked a lot of promises post-2022, and delivering against those.
There is the very real possibility of a third term given the state the opp is in, and factions focus on progressing/ advancing Australia, fair.
I don’t think the removal of the Industry Minister makes sense, unlike the former AGJ.
Here’s to hoping Albo’s replacement will be less centrist, blue Libs lite, and more Lab.
Under promise and over deliver.
Despite Nbnco harking back to the 2007 and 2013 federal elections on wired we’re still at about a stable but underserviced 34/ 7 Mbps if unlimited quota, despite the then gov in 2020/ 2021 declaring mission accomplished, wireless is much better in terms of speed if not quota.
Supposedly this calendar year we’ll get all fibre. The opp’s stance on WFH didn’t even see the end of the campaign.
And I note Pegasus is in full support of Paul Thomas miss understanding of how the voting system works. Anything to try and hide form reality.
Ted O’Brien says the Liberal party needs to expand to better reflect modern Australia, pledging to recruit more women and young people to help shape policy and stand for parliament.
As the Coalition begins the long road back from the 3 May election defeat under Peter Dutton, the new deputy party leader and his leader, Sussan Ley, face calls for formal quotas to help women take winnable seats, and for a major policy reset to better align with voters’ concerns.
The Fairfax MP and nuclear power advocate told Guardian Australia he would contribute to policy debate on energy supply, but stopped short of saying whether the Dutton-era plan for construction of seven reactors should remain policy for the next election, due around 2028.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/18/ted-obrien-says-liberals-need-to-reflect-modern-australia-with-more-women-in-party
___________________
Well, plainly they need to withdraw from the coalition and purge their party of radicals living in the S.A.D realm.
It also seems they are set to ditch their Govt funded nuclear energy powerplant policy, but retain a policy to lift the federal ban on nuclear energy production and management, which is sensible , IMHO.
The Greens only really went backwards compared to 2022. And part of the reason the Greens did well in Brisbane in 2022 was there were no Teals in Queensland, and the Greens rode that wave to 3 seats.
Compared to 2019, they did about the same. Yes, they lost Melbourne but got much closer in Wills. Swings and roundabouts.
So 2025 is more of a reset than a total destruction as some are making out.
Yawn! Stop rewriting history. Lidia left the Greens because she opposed the voice which the Greens supporters and representatives were in favour of. The Greens deal in consensus. She didn’t agree so she left. Consensus takes time. Move on!
As for the quirk of the electoral system, the quirk that gave us three Greens in Queensland, didn’t this time. The lib collapse and ALP surge swamped them this time. Next time it may not. Or it may. Time will tell. The Greens finished third in almost every seat. We lost 0.09% of our vote in a landslide election. We retained our senate seats.
ALP supporters, in your revelry, which you earned, don’t embrace hubris. As I have said before, if losing Bandt meant we escaped Dutton, it is a sacrifice I am prepared to make. Every Green I personally know shares that sentiment. Don’t lose sight of who the true enemy is.
The election result was fabulous!
We love you guys, we just want you to be better.
middle aged balding white man says:
Sunday, May 18, 2025 at 9:19 am
… if losing Bandt meant we escaped Dutton, ….’
================================
Correlation is not causation.
From the previous thread…
Well, allow me to correct these misrepresentations.
1. I’m not a libertarian. I support strong regulation in a number of areas.
2. I don’t think you’re ‘dangerous’. I think you have a good heart.
3. I think those spending their life in prison with no chance of parole should be afforded the option of VAD.
4. I think those of retirement age should also be afforded the option of VAD.
mabwm
Well said sir.
B. S. Fairman says:
Sunday, May 18, 2025 at 9:12 am
The Greens only really went backwards compared to 2022. And part of the reason the Greens did well in Brisbane in 2022 was there were no Teals in Queensland, and the Greens rode that wave to 3 seats.
Compared to 2019, they did about the same. Yes, they lost Melbourne but got much closer in Wills. Swings and roundabouts.
So 2025 is more of a reset than a total destruction as some are making out.
________________________________________________
The Greens primary vote went backwards in all four HR seats that they held – most strongly in Griffith and Melbourne. Losing three seats and hanging on by a thread in the last one was not just a quirk in the electoral system but reflected rejection by those constituencies – separate from any move from Liberal to Labor voters in those electorates.
Their gambit of picking up Muslim voters by their overly prominent support of Palestinian rights probably succeeded in those seats with a relatively heavy Muslim presence appears to have been successful, but only to the extent of adding votes to the Senate quotas and at the expense of losing votes elsewhere. The end result is a tiny decline in national voting numbers masking the direct loss of previous voters in favour of new, single issue voters who are unlikely to repeat their Greens vote in 2028 if Palestine is not as big an issue then.
It seems to me that the Greens suffered the same fate as the Liberals in taking their core constituencies for granted. And trying to suggest there is nothing to see here of concern – as the Liberals did after 2022 – will give them the same outcome.
In addition to considering winding up the Liberal Party, Rupert and kids, Gina and crew should consider winding up the old media NewsCorp outlets.
Maybe one more round of comprehensive electoral humiliation?