The first poll since the election is the regular fortnightly Essential Research, but it does not feature voting intention, which was presumably considered superfluous in the week after the real thing. We do get leadership ratings for Anthony Albanese, who gets a six point post-election bump on approval to 50% with disapproval down eight to 39%, and, a little redundantly, for Peter Dutton, who gets insult added to injury with a ten point drop on approval to 29% and an eight point hike on disapproval to 59%. The “national mood” has improved for one reason or another: 37% now rate the country as headed in the right direction, up six from late April, with wrong track down ten to 42%.
Out of the few who had an opinion on the matter, Sussan Ley scored highest for preferred Liberal leader at 16%, followed by Angus Taylor on 12% and Dan Tehan on 7%, with 45% unsure and 20% for none of the above. The apparent swing to Labor as the election approached appears not to have reflected a dramatic change in national priorities, with 53% rating cost-of-living the most important determinant of vote choice. It is arguably telling that “wanting a stable government in an uncertain world” came second with 12%, but the result was scarcely different from 11% for health policies and 9% for energy policies and “not liking Peter Dutton”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.
nath @ #1641 Saturday, May 17th, 2025 – 7:03 pm
I wasn’t seeking to find Peta Credlin pain. I was asking for a Youtube link to the coverage.
Can you assist on that front?
Thank you frednk. Immeasurably more helpful than nath who just seeks to troll.
”
B. S. Fairmansays:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 6:52 pm
Calwell is either going to end up with it being Labor versus Liberal with Labor winning on preferences from the progressive independent/other candidates or Labor versus one of the progressive independents/other candidates and thus will be saved by the Liberal preferences or if the second final candidate is Carly Moore gets a bit messier.
”
So basically, you have no idea what it will be in the end. 🙂
Hack, woke, Partisan, comrade @ #1614 Saturday, May 17th, 2025 – 5:35 pm
It won’t be the same without you buddy – ’til next time 🙂
Confessions
The full set:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcxNux-0x5E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBOJPkW2yXU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghXdgfksohQ&t=3411s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC03cCFGMlo
Confessions says:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 7:21 pm
Thank you frednk. Immeasurably more helpful than nath who just seeks to troll.
You need to watch to convince yourself it really happened.
That’s tragic. I don’t know how their family will recover. Twins have are said to have a very
close relationship, identical twins moreso. Life’s very tough at times.
frednk:
Thank you. It’s interesting that Credlin is the only woman panelist. What happened there?
Perhaps nath has some answers as our Sky News whisperer.
Briefly…I will miss your considered & thoughtful posts. See you in ’28 – if not before.
Nath and Peta Credlin are both like “railway sleepers”, they both like to be “railed upon”!
Ven – Well, yes. I would say it is highly likely that Labor win fairly easily because preference flows are never 100%.
SA: History-making One Nation member Sarah Game is quitting Pauline Hanson’s party, blaming insurmountable problems with “the way the One Nation brand is perceived” and declaring she wants to “advocate for all South Australians, regardless of their heritage or religious beliefs”. In an open letter supplied exclusively to the Sunday Mail, Ms Game says she has tried to “evolve” the One Nation brand but has decided this is impossible.
Ms Game says a secondary reason for her decision to become an independent is recent One Nation decisions that she does not support, which have “further reduced my confidence that the party will change as it needs to”. Asked by the Sunday Mail what these decisions were, Ms Game did not single any out but said: “I’ve made it clear, I will advocate for all South Australians regardless of their heritage or religious beliefs.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/south-australian-upper-house-member-sarah-game-quits-pauline-hansons-one-nation-to-stand-as-independent/news-story/db69ee778565adf7ab5f5340f7f5ec89
Hi everyone,
I really enjoy this forum, and it really helped me reorientate my political thinking and understanding where I am at. A forum that was productive for me.
And what I also notice is the amount of slagging at each other.
I mean, I do get it. It happens on Reddit and Youtube comments descend into shitting on each other. OK, maybe we’re all captive to it.
And I can get very emotional against Reactionaries as they are called here.
But I have to say, Albo absolutely nailed it when people were about to boo Dutton on election night. “No, NO! We treat people with respect”. I went “whoah” to myself.
Maybe the ALP is going to (finally) bring in some great changes that will make us the envy of the world, maybe not. Why the fuck not!
In the age of AI, we are left with what is human about us – this is what my own business deals with – and for us to step up and lead the world, we are going to need a bunch of stuff we left behind in primary school: exploration, curiosity, listening to others.
The election, imho, showed that the majority of the population wants to move in one direction away from uncertainty, extremism and psychopathy.
We can do better. I am sure strong partisans for one party or another are not going to question things. However, all that aggressive talk to me clouds what might be some other knowledge or observations that people here have. I am sure Boerwar knows a hell of a lot, and C@t and Hack also does, and likely pied piper etc. I wouldn’t know, as this looks like a battleground.
Due to the need to sell, I frequent business networks. I know they are chock full of Liberals, and I end up in great conversations where I listen to what they have learnt in their job, and to me they have authority. If I was to bring up politics, then I would get nowhere with them. So I develop other relationships. So I have reduced my own battles with rando Liberal supporters. But they are humanised in my eyes, and that is a good thing.
I do enjoy the forum when people advance or build on ideas. I also skip a lot of those posts if there is more battle than building. There may not be room for me to contribute much, if that’s important. This may just be a little club and I’m a trespasser.
I hope you guys don’t get off on battling, I’m not sure it’s great for mental health – living in grievances. That’s where Trump pulls his power from. And Albo wants us to move on from that, for what I can tell (well, I hope he does anyway, you guys will probably show me he’s not doing that at all).
How do we build a successful community, economy, environment for the 21st century if we spend our days flinging shit at each other? We can move to the next level, and be a world leader for a strong multicultural and diverse society. The potential is there anyway.
Just letting you guys know. However, if this comment here gets a lot of negative replies, maybe it isn’t the place for me.
happyez….agree 100% with all u said…. I just skip the Labor/Greens war shit….its been going on here for years and years…..so far its a 0-0 draw. I am sure u will be most welcome here. There are a very wide range of people with many areas of expertise. Just post your thoughts and contribute when u like
Gettysburg1863
I think it is likely. As Jack Lang said, “Always back the horse named self-interest ….”
In the week leading up to the election, I felt sick. This was because if Peter Dutton had forced Labor into deep minority, and I believed it was a possibility, the energy transition away from gas and coal to renewables would have had a massive setback. Even if Albo remained PM, everyone would have been convinced that Dutton would become PM win 2028.
When the Coalition nuclear policy was announced, in 2024, they also announced that investment in renewable energy would be capped, and that the contribution of renewable energy to the grid in the future would need to be lower than now.
Of course, Australia, even under a Coalition government, would eventually make the transition to a mostly electricity grid, powered mostly by renewables.
But we would miss out on the chance to be leaders in the technology, as we have always been before. And on a great boost to our economy, by exporting green hydrogen: https://engineerine.com/largest-green-hydrogen-plant/
Anyway, with a decisive majority for Labor, investors now have the certainly they need to invest in renewables.
According to the SMH
Before the election, the renewable energy industry in Australia feared it might be derailed by a hostile federal government within weeks. Today, its optimists believe it has not just three years but six years of clear Commonwealth government support. And by the end of the decade it believes the transition to a renewable energy system that is already under way will be locked in.
Government support – and predictable, stable policy – is vital for an industry whose projects might deliver extraordinarily cheap power in the long run, but only after huge outlays upfront. Investors need to know that expensive projects not only have a chance of surviving exhaustive planning processes and long builds, but will also then be connected to the grid and find buyers for the energy they produce at a sustainable price.
According to Richie Merzian, chief executive of Clean Energy Investor Group, which lobbies on behalf of renewables investors in Australia, the industry in this country has been hampered by years of political uncertainty, which Labor’s victory significantly reduced.
Among programs the industry feared would be axed under a Coalition government was the Capacity Investment Scheme, which Labor established in its first term. The scheme underwrites renewables projects to supercharge the construction of 23 gigawatts of renewable energy generation by the end of the decade, as well as 9 gigawatts of additional “dispatchable” assets, such as batteries and pumped hydro.
With Labor’s victory, Merzian says, more investors are planning to tap the $70 billion program. “I know about a dozen companies that are now preparing their bids for all these future projects, and there were a couple who were on the line about whether to do so.
“It’s worth remembering that 70 per cent of Australia’s investment for large-scale clean energy projects comes from overseas. And so investors have a choice of where they put their money … and this is giving a boost to Australia being the destination choice.”
Re: Labor vs Greens
Still pathetic debating around here when all evidence suggests that deals will be done and people will move on with their lives.
Kremlinology levels of hyping up the vaguest of statements from the perspective leader – intentionally vague as red meat for the rank and file supporter (ie YOU), and a bit of bluff and bluster for barely interested voters.
My prediction is that there will be a lot of accusations thrown AND a lot will get done in this Parliament. Because that is modern Australia lan politics, campaigning by soundbite and gotcha and little relation to the actual passage of legislation.
I swear, some of you are self radicalizing.
@The Albonator
Cheers! Imagine if that energy was put to other uses, building businesses, learning to actively listen, accept (not agree) and build on what others said. We would unlock a lot more knowledge and may come up with solutions.
It’s like we’re, in the words of the D-Gen, going for the Bermagui Bronze rather than the Coolangatta Gold.
C@t
Interesting. Reminding the electorate of “who and what they were missing” is predicated on a strategy that assumes that the personal unpopularity of ScoMo was the biggest factor in why they lost in 2022.
And, I believe the 2022 Liberal party review of their loss did identify the personal unpopularity of Morrison as a significant factor.
So, I guess, if the voters really just loved everything that the ATM government did, but didn’t like ScoMo, their strategy could have paid off.
Personally, I think it was grasping at straws.
Lol….They remind me of Howard and Raj wrestling https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igVLkndrAWg
But there is so much more on here. Experts in Polling and Pseph stuff like WB and Dr Bonham and so many interesting people from all corners of our great country. Think of PB like a buffet, just take want u want from it
happyez @ #1664 Saturday, May 17th, 2025 – 7:47 pm
I get where you’re coming from, it would really be nice if we could go about politics with mutual respect and comity, but unfortunately that’s pretty much been destroyed as a concept in Australian politics.
When Labor won in 2007, it tried to be generous and magnanimous, and all that got them was a decade of the Coalition not only spitting in their face, but being rewarded for doing so by the Australian electorate by the Coalition winning elections as well.
And we see that being played out in the USA, that just isn’t how people are playing politics anymore. A distinct example I remember was when a Republican representative was called out by a Democrat for saying a slur and she responded by spitting in his face, being like “(slur, slur, slur), I don’t care.” and the Democrat left it at that.
I guess what I’m getting at here is, when someone declares war on you, you are at war, and your only options are to fight back or surrender.
“I guess what I’m getting at here is, when someone declares war on you, you are at war, and your only options are to fight back or surrender.”
OK, I guess …
happyez
Aahhh the memories. My first PB post around 16 years ago (omg) was an exhortation for civility to prevail. It was my first venture into the cyber world. I was given a warm welcome but when it transpired I was a Greens member, it was downhill from then on.
I now laugh at my naivety. Being a gentle soul, I was told to HTFU in the face of unrelenting attacks. That’s a fact. I am not ‘playing the victim’. Well, I have HTFU lol.
Believe it, PB is a softer, gentler place today than it was back then.
happyez
I like and read comments like yours.
“I guess what I’m getting at here is, when someone declares war on you, you are at war, and your only options are to fight back or surrender.”
I’m not sure this is my forum.
happyezsays:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 7:47 pm
But I have to say, Albo absolutely nailed it when people were about to boo Dutton on election night. “No, NO! We treat people with respect”. I went “whoah” to myself.
_____________________
Words are cheap happy.
Did Marles treat Dreyfus and Husic with respect.
Did Albo when he convinced Dreyfus to run again knowing full well he would be demoted.
Watch what they do, not what they say.
Politics is just the continuation of war by other means.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 4:44 pm
Nicholas: “I want all elderly people, including Baby Boomers, to have access to a decent retirement. I don’t believe that growing old should ever involve growing poor. The Age Pension and the Disability Support Pension and the Jobseeker Allowance and Carers’ payments should be enough to live a decent life. “I pulled myself up by my bootstraps and became an astronomer” is not an argument for denying anyone else a decent life.”
___________________
Well said Nicholas !
____
Two F-wits in a pod.
Douglas and Milko says:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 7:54 pm
…
Anyway, with a decisive majority for Labor, investors now have the certainly they need to invest in renewables.
…’
==================
Exactement
Renewables will be cemented by the physical and economic fact of solar farms, windfarms, batteries and wires but by a huge and totally self-interested private investment base therein.
Talking about the future.
As well as politics, I like listening to utube videos that deal with theoretical physics. They seem to be pushing against reality itself, I find the uncertainty of it all, all these smart people wandering around in the dark trying to work out what is going on fascinating. I suppose the politics of physics.
This is the first video that convinces me that quantum computer may really become something and that our understanding of reality is going to change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUj2TcZSlZc
My cold take on the Greens performance is that the Greens actually had a semi-reasonable result. The reason that it looks so bad is because 2022 was an exceptional result for them which they mistook for being the new normal. Part of the reason the Greens did so well in Queensland in 2022 was the lack of Community Independents in Brisbane and the Greens rode that wave. They were always going to struggle to hold those.
Losing Melbourne was a shock given how long Bandt had held it, but it might just have been the toxicity of the leader there. They did well in Wills but fell short. Macnarama was always going to be a long shot with the Greens take on the geopolitical situation (and what was playing well in Wills was not playing well south of the Yarra).
Equally Richmond was worth a shot but the collapse in the Nationals support meant Labor was too far ahead to be caught.
Their campaign was terrible (Some form of public dental makes sense but the Dental into Medicare was not costed and the giant toothbrush was a dumb idea), but they recovered all of their senators. And have only gone backwards by 2 elections.
@happyez
I’m sorry that I came across as somewhat raw in my post. My only excuse is that I’m sorting things out in my mind and there’s a lot to do there.
It’s a bit hard to think about cooling things down when there’s a large number of people who casually talk about arresting and executing the Premier of your state who you presume acted with the best of intentions during the Covid pandemic.
happyez says:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 7:47 pm
Very well explained.
This is exactly the place for you. As you have probably guessed, given the commentary of the last 24 hours, I can become quite feisty. I am mostly harmless, but I have my triggers.
We all do here, but we are not here for a fight. Instead, we are quite passionate about our varying visions for society.
And, the scroll wheel is your friend, and at the moment, perhaps it is best to scroll past my posts 😉
BSF
A fair take, IMO. The deep dive of the Liberals enabled Labor to be final two and that seems to have made a systemic difference.
The other systemic issue is that the protest vote/ single issue minor party/indie field is now a lot more crowded and somewhat more chaotic when it comes to both primary and preference patterns.
The other issue is getting the balance right between being a party of protest (qua delaying and blocking imperfect legislation) and being seen to be a reasonable party that does reasonable deals without unreasonable delays.
The ACT Greens faced just that dilemma. They were part of government but lost seats to independents when the Greens were ‘tainted’ by ACT Labor. The ACT Greens are now on the cross benches when they could still be part of government. That brings with it freedom to speak and to deploy but it also costs them real power to make real differences.
Finally, the ACT Greens were open and honest about what they thought in their behaviour that had cost them electorally.
I see zero sign of this from the federal Greens.
‘Douglas and Milko says:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 8:28 pm
…’
‘triggered’ tends to be used pejoratively.
You were entitled to respond and you did so with authenticity and integrity.
Je te respecte.
Considering C@tmomma appears to be mentally incapable of providing their definition, I just googled it. Hope this definition is acceptable for C@tmomma.
“To suddenly and quickly reduce or become less successful”
If it is, then I’m still not sure how they could think going from -3 in the 3 days after the election to -46 today in the same reputable poll isn’t falling off a cliff.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
happyez,
I welcome your thoughtful contributions and believe that they are an example of the best that we can all be. However, as you have observed there is plenty of animosity from The Greens towards Labor supporters here and plenty of intolerance of The Greens going back the other way.
However, that’s not all it is, as I hope you can see from the PB get togethers that we are organising one of right now. At these we lay down our swords, mostly, and have the best of times together. I don’t know if you are Sydney and environs based but if you are then you are more than welcome to come along. It would be an honour to meet you. I mean, anyone who’s prepared to write a post to a politics blog on a Saturday night is one of us!
So I hope that you decide to stay and keep contributing your calm and considered posts. Also, we do discuss policy as well but sometimes it’s hard to find among the dross. Which, if you want to talk about that, then can I just make the comparison, as I see it, to competing groups at school who are constantly trying to get the best spot and establish their playground supremacy as a result. As you say, it’s been going on for years with no apparent resolution, so maybe your posts can find a way through that thicket? It’s worth a try. 🙂
let it go dawg.
Thank you, Pegagus and Rex. I am glad that you are here. It takes strength to show up and share your perspective even though 80% of the active commenters are hostile towards you. I always remember that for every commenter there are multiple lurkers who are reading your comments and who could be influenced in a positive direction by what you say. The discussion threads would be poorer without your contributions.
ACT
“The coalition dissolved after the 2024 election, where the Greens lost two seats to Independents. Rattenbury announced on 6 November 2024 that the Greens would be sitting on the crossbench, while continuing to guarantee supply in exchange for Labor adopting Greens policies”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor%E2%80%93Greens_coalition
———–
Article written before full count.
Despite having lost almost half of their six Legislative Assembly seats the ACT Greens still have a ‘very strong base’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-22/act-greens-lose-assembly-seats-swing-smaller-than-appears/104499294
“According to ABC election analyst Antony Green, despite the Greens’ vote being slightly down on their 2020 election result, it is “still
third-best result in ACT history”.
He said it took only a small decrease in their vote to cost the Greens half their seats, but they still have a “very strong base”.
“The thing about the Greens was they only just got to six seats last time, it was quite a surprise,” Green said.
“It’s just the way that maths turns into seats means they’ve lost seats
.”
:::
Green said a significant factor in the election results was the emergence of independents in the ACT Legislative Assembly, which notably had cost the Greens their second Kurrajong seat.
“For the first time in two decades, we’ve got someone other than Labor, Liberal and Green in the assembly,” he said.
Mr Rattenbury said he thought the change was more indicative of a desire for more independents than a desire for fewer Greens.
“As you look at the vote, it was just a 1 per cent swing against the Greens,” he said.
“This is not a vote against us, this is a move for the independents.”
:::
“The numbers matter in the assembly but it’s the result that matters most, and tonight the Greens have retained the balance of power in the ACT parliament.
“Whether it’s with one MLA or six MLAs in the assembly, we take on the hard issues, we bring these conversations that are happening in the community onto the floor of the parliament, many of which would not happen without us.””
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 8:19 pm
I had completely missed this.
The Coalition have, at every turn, reduced benefits of old-aged pensioners, carers, the unemployed etc.
But these guys want to blame Labor!
Like many here, I have spent a lot of time working for the election of Federal Labor governments.
So, for this I am to be damned as a “social fascist”?
Actually, from Nicholas’ point of view, I am a “social fascist” (in that I strongly believe in parliamentary democracy).
But from Rex’s point of view, our resident Ayn Rand Libertarian, I am dangerous. Every time he edges towards proclaiming that “prisoners should be offered the opportunity to take their own life”, and “everyone over 70 should be offered the opportunity to take their own life” (Soylent Green anyone?), I push back.
Arange,
I’m simply refusing to engage in your childish word games. I don’t dance to anyone’s tune. Especially someone whose political focus is around Allan Lichtman’s trivial and politically pointless ‘Keys’.
And let this be my last word to you. As Albert Einstein said, ‘It’s all relative.’ So if Keir Starmer’s nett approval is where it is today in 4 years time, then I might agree that it’s fallen off a cliff. But as a week is a long time in politics, 4 years is an eternity and every sentient being on the planet knows how little relevance his nett approve/disapprove rating is now, as a result. You just don’t want to admit that and instead seek to try and hoist me on some puerile petard.
*yawn*
Boerwoer
Merci 🙂
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 8:51 pm
“So if Keir Starmer’s nett approval is where it is today in 4 years time, then I might agree that it’s fallen off a cliff.”
Finally. Thanks for giving us a straight-ish answer.
happyez at 7.47pm
I read and re-read your post and I realise every one who votes or indeed posts on PB could write a similar
list of the why and wherefores about their views on, not only politics, but on anything else in life.
My raison d’etre a Labor supporter ever since I could vote was due to the events of 1975.
I blame Malcolm Fraser and the Liberal Party for taking away my choice to be a swinging voter who could be influenced by the policies of the government of the day and/or the opposition’s policies.
I’m like Trump said, If the leader of the Labor party shot someone in Canberra, I would still vote for him/her, because I could never vote for that Liberal party.
For over 50 years I have never regretted voting Labor.
Douglas and Milkosays:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 8:50 pm
The Coalition have, at every turn, reduced benefits of old-aged pensioners, carers, the unemployed etc.
But these guys want to blame Labor!
_____________________
Don’t forget the reduced workers compensation entitlements for injured workers.
Oh wait. That’s Labor that’s doing that.
B.S. Fairman at 8.24 pm, Boerwar at 8.32 pm
Interesting comment re campaign.
Did you notice that the Greens main policy launch, emphasising what could be done in a minority Labor government, occurred on 30 April?
There was an ABC news story early that morning outlining what would be announced in Wills that evening.
So it was not just the theatrics that were awry with the Greens campaign, it was the timing and the basic pitch.
By the time of that Greens launch, it was clear to many careful observers, such as Dr Bonham, that a majority Labor government was imminent.
Yet the Greens persisted with the Hung Parliament scenario, even when it had become stale due to Dutton’s lack of policy substance and mistakes.
Re Wills, wasn’t there a transfer of some stronger Greens areas from Melbourne into Wills?
Boerwar, re Greens’ reflections on where they should go from here, you should not prejudge this.
They have taken the first step in choosing their most appealing and least abrasive senator, Waters, as leader. That is a sign of intent at least.
As for action, wait until the first votes.
Mavis says:
Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 6:44 pm
I felt compelled to savour May 3 once more, some five & a half hours of it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtxMjAUsNlc&t=18958s
This makes up for Kerr’s dog act in ’75.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Did the same thing yesterday.
Well 3 hours of it anyway.
Also took in Sky while having a Champagne.
How sweet it was to see those motherfuckers suffer.
Putin’s peace talks negotiator claimed Russians have extra chromosome, apparently thinks that’s good:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/16/russia-ukraine-putin-peace-negotiator-vladimir-medinsky/
M&D says
“The Coalition have, at every turn, reduced benefits of old-aged pensioners, carers, the unemployed etc.”
Finally someone said the obvious thing I didn’t think needed saying. That a government funded social wage for all is one LNP government way from all being sent straight to poverty until they’ve died.
Nicholas this is why no one supports your view on replacing superannuation with a living wage for retirement. This isn’t some Labor versus Greens argument, it’s because we all know the LNP would gut it given half a chance. They’re doing their best to try and encourage people to spend their superannuation. We don’t trust them and neither should you.
I never believed in the ‘hung’ parliament scenario for one second, while I do realise that the media grabbed onto it and wouldn’t let go, even when the polls were 53+ TPP to Labor which would have given them around 80 seats.
I didn’t really care, because everyone in the know, especially MOST, (but not all Labor PBers), knew that.
For Christ sake, many were still saying that it would be a minority gov on the night of the election.