The first poll since the election is the regular fortnightly Essential Research, but it does not feature voting intention, which was presumably considered superfluous in the week after the real thing. We do get leadership ratings for Anthony Albanese, who gets a six point post-election bump on approval to 50% with disapproval down eight to 39%, and, a little redundantly, for Peter Dutton, who gets insult added to injury with a ten point drop on approval to 29% and an eight point hike on disapproval to 59%. The “national mood” has improved for one reason or another: 37% now rate the country as headed in the right direction, up six from late April, with wrong track down ten to 42%.
Out of the few who had an opinion on the matter, Sussan Ley scored highest for preferred Liberal leader at 16%, followed by Angus Taylor on 12% and Dan Tehan on 7%, with 45% unsure and 20% for none of the above. The apparent swing to Labor as the election approached appears not to have reflected a dramatic change in national priorities, with 53% rating cost-of-living the most important determinant of vote choice. It is arguably telling that “wanting a stable government in an uncertain world” came second with 12%, but the result was scarcely different from 11% for health policies and 9% for energy policies and “not liking Peter Dutton”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.
“Preferences oust half a Liberal ministry of talent”
This was the title in an article in the Australian. And? If this article is complaining about the preferential voting system then all I can say is tough shit. The amount seats that Liberals and National parties in the past won from preferencing each other with no complaints from the right win press when the preferencing system benifited them. And now they don’t like the election result they want to move the goal posts to favour the coalition? Ummmmmm right.
First past the post like the UK system is a truly awful system. Where there are some voters who know they can’t vote for a particular party because if they do, it will waste their vote. It will have the obvious consequences of a representatives being elected that wasn’t the majority wishes because the vote was split.
“talent” is a very strange way of describing them.
Re: King O’s “Dessicated Coconut” analysis from last night. Very interesting, but I think there is a complication to be considered.
Without doing any formal analysis, it seems reasonable to me to assume that neighbouring seats are more like each other than non-neighbouring seats. And therefore that an analysis including swings in far-flung parts of the country might not be the best comparison.
I took a look at the seats surrounding those visited by JHW, and note that they swung -4.16%* (compared to an overall -2.62% and the JHW-affected(?) swing of -4.73%). That suggests the possibility that other local factors common to Wentworth (visited) and Sydney and Kingsford-Smith (not visited) were also in place, as compared to say, Grey or Bass or Leichhardt.
With a big caveat for small sample size, I note that the 3 WA seats he visited swung less than average of their surrounding seats, while the 5 in NSW swung more (although in both cases, more than the average for the state as a whole). Perhaps something about the devil you know…?
It appeals on many levels that the Lying Rodent should have a negative impact, but at this point I think he is a virtual irrelevance, with anyone under 35 saying “who is that wizened little gnome they’ve dragged out of the twilight home?”
*I’ll own having to fudge that a bit to allow for the wild swings that come when the 2CP participants change. In a couple of seats where I couldn’t find a sensible comparison, I used the swing in Lib PV.
‘Talent’ is in the eye of the beholder.
King O’Malley’s John Howard analysis is long overdue – well done!!! I’ve watched the old fella wheeled out at various by elections and campaigns all to no avail. I’ve often wondered if his presence caused a further swing away from the LNP or whether they sent him into battle when things looked dire. Anyway my favourite Howard anecdote was when Bill Hayden addressed a question to big Mal Fraser – John piped up and tried to answer, Hayden said ” I’m asking the organ grinder not the monkey”.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Saudi Arabia Rolls Out Custom Mobile McDonald’s for Trump Visit: https://www.newsweek.com/saudi-arabia-rolls-out-custom-mobile-mcdonalds-trump-visit-2071591
Trump ‘issued an ultimatum’ to Ukraine, Russia to advance peace talks or face US exit, Witkoff says: https://kyivindependent.com/trump-issued-an-ultimatum-to-ukraine-russia-to-advance-peace-talks-or-face-us-exit-witkoff-says/
Putin’s refusal to join Istanbul talks would be ‘last signal’ Russia doesn’t want peace, Zelensky’s chief of staff says: https://kyivindependent.com/if-putin-doesnt-come-to-turkey-it-will-be-last-signal-that-russia-doesnt-want-to-end-war-yermak-says/
Macron says Europe readying new sanctions package against Russia ‘in coming days’: https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-vladimir-putin-russia-france-sanctions-package/
Trump says U.S. will remove all sanctions on Syria: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/trump-says-us-will-remove-all-sanctions-on-syria.html
Netanyahu says there is ‘no way’ Israel halts the war in Gaza until Hamas is defeated: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2600592/middle-east
President Donald Trump suggested that the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against his immigration policies could destroy the U.S.: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-supreme-court-immigration-migrants-deportations-2071433
Library of Congress Staff Turn Away New MAGA Bosses: https://www.thedailybeast.com/library-of-congress-staff-mount-standoff-against-new-bosses/
Chief Supreme Court Justice Gives Biggest Sign Yet of Trump Disapproval: https://www.thedailybeast.com/chief-supreme-court-justice-gives-biggest-sign-yet-of-trump-disapproval/
House GOP unveils plan to raise debt limit by $4 trillion: https://thehill.com/business/budget/5296087-house-gop-debt-limit-increase/
GOP heavyweights join bipartisan bashing of Trump Qatar jet deal: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/13/senate-republicans-qatar-trump-jet-00345435
Chuck Schumer Finally Takes Action After Trump Accepts Private Jet – The Senate minority leader is refusing to move forward on some key Trump nominations until he gets answers: https://newrepublic.com/post/195175/chuck-schumer-takes-action-trump-private-jet-gift
House Republicans’ pension changes will save nearly $51B, CBO says: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/13/congress/house-oversight-pension-reform-reconciliation-savings-cbo-00345771
US signs $600bn deal with Saudi Arabia as Donald Trump hails ‘largest arms agreement in history’: https://www.lbc.co.uk/usa/politics/us-strikes-600bn-deal-with-saudi-arabia-donal-trumps-middle-east-tour-continues/
FDA and RFK Jr. aim to remove ingestible fluoride products used to protect kids’ teeth: https://apnews.com/article/fluoride-fda-kennedy-cavities-teeth-water-22c5aefeb97c411e2fda0c4754b78cf2
Starmer will cave to EU fishing demands under Brexit reset: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/13/starmer-caves-to-eu-on-fishing-rights/
Water could be restricted for 16,000,000 people in UK ahead of potential drought: https://metro.co.uk/2025/05/13/water-restricted-16-000-000-people-uk-ahead-potential-drought-23077708/
John Howard only appeals to the oldies who are rusted on Liberal voters anyway, the youngsters would have no idea who he is.
One positive from the Liberal leadership outcome is that it restores the symmetry of the genealogy..
The Lying Rodent begat
The Lying Friar begat
The Lying Waffle begat
The Liar from the Shire begat
Perfidious Pete begat
The Lying Susssan
And speaking of Mss Ley, her presser was quite ok yesterday, given the circumstances, until the final question was asked and answered.
She said ‘I have one more thing to say’. And launched into a prepared rant about Albo letting the Jewish community down, quite unhinged. It could have been written for her by Shari Markson – and was clearly aimed at the Murdoch cheer leaders. This is one policy not ‘under review’.
Good Morning! HHere’s YYour DDaily NNews and VViews RRoundup Sussan Ley Edition.
We may be waiting weeks for a result in the seat of Calwell – the most complex ever counted in an Australian election. AEC says they will have ‘absolute guns’ on Victorian electorate’s count after unusually large number of candidates polled a significant number of votes. By Ben Raue
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/13/we-may-be-waiting-weeks-for-a-result-in-the-seat-of-calwell-the-most-complex-ever-counted-in-an-australian-election
Ross Garnaut After the 2025 election: Energy transition and restoration of Australian growth
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/after-the-2025-election-energy-transition-and-restoration-of-australian-growth/
What should Labor do with its majority? The defining tension of Labor’s second term in office will be over how to interpret the landslide victory. By Louis Devine
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/what-should-labor-do-with-its-majority/
Sawsan Madina An open letter to The Greens
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/an-open-letter-to-the-greens/
Sussan Ley replaced Dutton once before. This time is an even tougher task.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ley-replaced-dutton-once-before-this-time-is-an-even-tougher-task-20250513-p5lyo6.html
Ley to go slow on shadow cabinet with Nationals stoush first on agenda. By Tom Crowley
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-14/sussan-ley-to-go-slow-on-shadow-cabinet/105288530
The Liberals have a long road to relevance – and Sussan Ley’s slim victory means she begins on shaky foundations. Appointing a woman with moderate Liberal values sends a message, but that won’t be enough to win over lost voters. By Dan Jervis-Bardy
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/13/sussan-ley-marks-a-new-beginning-but-theres-still-a-long-way-back-for-the-liberals
Rejection of LNP first step in eliminating Australia’s Far-Right. By Craig Hill
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/rejection-of-lnp-first-step-in-eliminating-australias-far-right,19736
Why Tanya Plibersek’s new job feels like ‘coming home’.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-tanya-plibersek-s-new-job-feels-like-coming-home-20250512-p5lyli.html
Albanese shifts Tanya Plibersek from environment, in favour of ‘can-do’ Murray Watt
By Michelle Grattan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-13/reshuffle-labor-cabinet-nationals-leader-david-littleproud/105282034
Senator Murray Watt has kicked off his stint as environment minister with backing from the warring mining and environment sectors to break the deadlock that dogged predecessor Tanya Plibersek and deliver the government’s long-promised environment reforms.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/as-plibersek-moves-out-mr-fix-it-takes-on-plagued-environment-job-20250513-p5lyqo.html
Sussan Ley makes history, but faces unprecedented levels of difficulty. By Mark Kenny
https://theconversation.com/sussan-ley-makes-history-but-faces-unprecedented-levels-of-difficulty-256336
Nothing suss about Sussan’s extra ‘s’. Many leaders go gaga for woo-woo. If we question the decision-making abilities of someone who added a mystical extra consonant to their name, those claiming God guides them should face similar secular scrutiny.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nothing-suss-about-sussan-s-extra-s-many-leaders-go-gaga-for-woo-woo-20250513-p5lysb.html
Glass ceiling or glass cliff? What awaits Sussan Ley as first woman to lead the Liberals?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/glass-ceiling-or-glass-cliff-what-awaits-sussan-ley-as-the-first-woman-to-lead-the-liberals-20250509-p5lxuq.html
View from The Hill: Ley says Liberals must ‘meet the people where they are’, but how can a divided party do that? Michelle Grattan
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-ley-says-liberals-must-meet-the-people-where-they-are-but-how-can-a-divided-party-do-that-256460
From punk rocker to tax policy expert: who is Sussan Ley, Australia’s first female opposition leader?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/13/sussan-ley-profile-australia-first-female-opposition-leader-liberal-party-coalition-ntwnfb
Political influence and powerful allies: how relative unknown Sam Rae catapulted himself into Labor’s ministry. “He grew up in a single parent household with two other brothers and worked in factories to get himself through university,” Kos Samaras said. “It’s not exactly been a blessed life. This is the sort of person you definitely want in the cabinet.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/14/how-relative-unknown-sam-rae-catapulted-himself-into-labor-ministry
Women have won the Liberal Party battle, now we need to win the war. By Charlotte Mortlock
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/women-have-won-the-liberal-party-battle-now-we-need-to-win-the-war-20250513-p5lysd.html
Sussan Ley’s narrow win suggests the Liberals’ leadership games are far from over. Jacob Greber
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-13/liberal-leadership-party-room-meeting-sussan-ley-angus-taylor/105286624
The federal Liberal Party handed over sensitive voter information to the Exclusive Brethren as part of a mammoth phone campaign in which members of the secretive Christian religious sect made nearly a million calls on behalf of the Coalition in the run-up to the federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/exclusive-brethren-made-nearly-a-million-calls-for-the-liberal-party-20250508-p5lxml.html
It was supposed to be the cost-of-living election. But then Dutton showed up. By Ross Gittins
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-was-supposed-to-be-the-cost-of-living-election-but-then-peter-dutton-showed-up-20250513-p5lysk.html
Australia chose the nice guy over the tough guy. But Labor is going to need momentum to meet the challenge. By Peter Lewis
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/may/13/australia-chose-nice-guy-anthony-albanese-federal-election-labor
Allan Patience Australia’s misunderstanding of the Asian Century
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/australias-misunderstanding-of-the-asian-century/
Labor’s win is good news for the economy. By Stephen Koukoulas
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/labors-win-is-good-news-for-the-economy,19733
AEC investigates after missing ballot papers found at election worker’s home.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-14/aec-investigating-after-ballot-papers-missing-barton-sydney/105286812
Labor’s David Smith retains ACT seat of Bean following tight race with independent Jessie Price
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-12/federal-election-david-smith-wins-seat-of-bean/105257178
What Bendigo’s swing against Labor means for Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-10/bendigo-federal-election-labor-wins-despite-swing-nationals/105257330
Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown projected to hold onto Brisbane seat of Ryan. Casey Briggs
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-12/ryan-federal-election-elizabeth-watson-brown-greens-maggie/105281288
The campaign was derided as dull, but the election aftermath kicks like a shirty mule. Annabel Crabb
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-14/labor-cabinet-liberal-leadership-sussan-ley/105282032
How the WA government is pushing WA families to claim their free student assistance payment money
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/how-the-government-is-pushing-wa-families-to-claim-their-free-money-20250513-p5lyxd.html
Legal Aid NT chair resigns amid backlash over government’s ‘captain’s pick’ for new director
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-13/nt-legal-aid-charmain-resigns-over-ministers-captains-pick/105287800
The truce in Donald Trump’s trade war with China has given the Reserve Bank the green light to deliver interest rate relief to the nation’s mortgage holders, but hopes of deep cuts by year’s end are on hold as the economy starts to pick up speed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-china-trade-war-truce-gives-rba-green-light-for-rate-cut-20250513-p5lyrq.html
How the cost of building a new house just hit a record high, and experts warn there’s little chance that prices will ease.
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/how-the-cost-of-building-a-new-house-just-hit-a-record-high-20250512-p5lygh.html
Why soaring property prices could dampen future interest rate cuts
By chief business correspondent Ian Verrender
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-13/why-soaring-property-prices-could-dampen-future-rate-cuts/105284238
The US and China have reached a temporary truce in the trade wars, but more turbulence lies ahead
https://theconversation.com/the-us-and-china-have-reached-a-temporary-truce-in-the-trade-wars-but-more-turbulence-lies-ahead-256448
Trump draws on golfing wisdom to defend Qatar’s gift of $625m plane.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-draws-on-golfing-wisdom-to-defend-qatar-s-gift-of-625m-plane-20250513-p5lytq.html
Poor Trump: you can’t even accept a luxury jet from Qatar without being called corrupt these days
Marina Hyde
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/13/poor-donald-trump-luxury-jet-qatar-corrupt
GOP heavyweights join bipartisan bashing of Trump Qatar jet deal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and GOP firebrand senators are among those voicing discomfort with the deal.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/13/senate-republicans-qatar-trump-jet-00345435
Trump’s Gulf tour doesn’t bode well for Israel. For the U.S. president, Gaza is a sideshow, and he doesn’t want it disrupting his bigger diplomatic agenda of resets and mega deals.
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-gulf-states-tour-israel-benjamin-netanyahu/
The Guardian Editorial view on Trump’s leftward lurch: the ‘lunatics’ are running the right. The White House says it is borrowing from Bernie Sanders and adopts rhetoric once dismissed as dangerous to lift its flagging poll ratings.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/13/the-guardian-view-on-trump-leftward-lurch-the-lunatics-are-running-the-right
Trump must realise Putin is obstacle to peace, Zelenskyy says. Ukrainian president says he will travel to Turkey on Thursday whether or not Russian leader flies in for talks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/13/volodymyr-zelenskyy-donald-trump-vladimir-putin-peace-talks-turkey
Putin won’t dare meet Zelenskyy, says EU’s Kallas. EU high representative predicts Russia-Ukraine peace talks scheduled for Thursday will fall through.
https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-zelenskyy-kallas-peace-ceasefire-ukraine-russia-invasion-war/
Edi Rama trounces MAGA-linked opponents to secure historic 4th term in Albania
Hiring Donald Trump’s campaign strategist and thinking you can become Trump “is like hiring a Hollywood hairdresser and thinking you’ll become Brad Pitt,” Rama told POLITICO.
https://www.politico.eu/article/albania-election-edi-rama-socialist-party-maga-opponents-eu-accession/
Trump’s Effort to become the Supreme Leader Has Roots in a Nazi Philosopher
His lawless view of his sovereign powers was articulated by Carl Schmitt
https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/trumps-effort-to-become-the-supreme
UK wants more say over fate of €200B in frozen Russian assets.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-frozen-russian-assets-war-in-ukraine-belgium-euroclear/
Macron says Europe readying new sanctions package against Russia ‘in coming days’
The French president said conversations were taking place with the U.S. administration.
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-vladimir-putin-russia-france-sanctions-package/
Denmark’s defense boss not ‘able to imagine’ a US takeover of Greenland
Greenland is a part of Denmark, and Washington cannot take it, Troels Lund Poulsen says.
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-greenland-donald-trump-military-annex/
Two more aides left John Fetterman’s office in recent weeks, the latest in a stream of staff exits amid the Pennsylvania senator’s shifting political persona and questions about his health.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/13/fetterman-staff-00344618
Cartoon Time!
Fiona Katauskas
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Simon Letch
Rebecca Hendin on Keir Starmer’s remarks on immigration
From the Internet!
Michael De Adder
Books on display:
• On Tyranny
• Twenty Lessons From
The 21st Century
• 1984
• A Handmaids Tale
• Diary of Anne Frank
• Parable of The Sower
• Fahrenheit 451
• Animal Farm
• Brave New World
Enjoy!
DPR of CBR says:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 4:28 am
Nice. I like me a bit of propensity score matching first thing in the morning 🙂
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 7:13 am
One positive from the Liberal leadership outcome is that it restores the symmetry of the genealogy..
The Lying Rodent begat
The Lying Friar begat
The Lying Waffle begat
The Liar from the Shire begat
Perfidious Pete begat
The Lying Susssan
And speaking of Mss Ley, her presser was quite ok yesterday, given the circumstances, until the final question was asked and answered.
She said ‘I have one more thing to say’. And launched into a prepared rant about Albo letting the Jewish community down, quite unhinged. It could have been written for her by Shari Markson – and was clearly aimed at the Murdoch cheer leaders. This is one policy not ‘under review’.
___________
As a political strategy, fomenting division in the electorate is sound. Not only does it attract votes, it strips votes from those attempting to run a consensus political strategy. It has worked well in the US and polling is looking good in the UK.
However we have just run an experiment in Australia and the strategy bombed. Didn’t work well for the Greens either. Why? My thought is a combination of voting and preferences being compulsory. This stabilises outcomes and better rewards consensus political strategies. A hypothesis that is worth testing at least a few more rounds 🙂
Thanks, Hh and C@t
Here’s two questions for the psephs in the context of a record low national turnout.
Are Aussie MAGAs more or less likely to turn up to vote? Is there the difference between PHON+ToP polling and actual vote potential explicable by way of no-shows?
Thanks C@t. The Golding ‘toon is laugh out loud.
Re Political Nightwatchman @3:18.
Of course the right-wing press complained bitterly when the former DLP scooped up about 5 to 8% of the vote and delivered 90% of it to the Coalition via preferences…
Why did Woolworths time this for straight after the election?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/14/woolworths-grocery-price-cuts-expect-more-supermarket-competition-but-not-all-out-price-war
Are we running a sweep on a lettuce v Leey going rotten and getting ditched ..?
Kelta says:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 7:51 am
Are we running a sweep on a lettuce v Leey going rotten and getting ditched ..?
_______
Woolworths has decreased prices so we can all play at home.
Thanks C@tmomma & Holdenhillbilly
C@tmomma I see the Herald has broached the subject of Sussan’s extra ‘s’, there’s a few good comments there, including this one:
“here’s a number for Sussan to think about: 93, possibly rising”
Thanks for the roundup C@t. The story on the missing votes is a reminder of how fortunate we are to have the AEC in Australia.
Q: Why did Woolworths time this for straight after the election?
Usually a preemptive measure when they know an inquiry or action is about to be debated or decided….both parties promised to take on the duopoly.
Why on earth an AEC worker in Barton would have stolen 300 ballot papers is a mystery to me – is it a criminal act, or an attempt to manipulate the result, or just an accidental thing?
Fiona Scott on quotas in the Liberal Party – “Scott said quotas could potentially had a negative impact on ensuring that multicultural communities are represented if a female candidate chosen instead of someone representing those communities.”
In other words, there’s not going to be any reducing white man representation among Liberal Party candidates, women have to fight with non-white people for the spare spots (which as we know are predominantly in unwinnable seats).
Did she realise she said the quiet part out loud?
Democracy Sausage says:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 8:09 am
Why on earth an AEC worker in Barton would have stolen 300 ballot papers is a mystery to me – is it a criminal act, or an attempt to manipulate the result, or just an accidental thing?
_________
Accidental I presume. Transported multiple containers and one was missed when offloading. If you consider the logistics it is surprising it doesn’t happen more often.
Re: King O’Malley’s John Howard analysis.
I wonder how much the added media focus on those seats had on the outcome. Also, did sending Howard prompt the voters to ask themselves, why isn’t Dutton visiting their close seat???
Boerwar @ #13 Wednesday, May 14th, 2025 – 7:42 am
This is a good question, if a rhetorical one because we cannot see inside the minds of those who refused to turn up to vote. However, I would state that a goodly number of them are likely Sov Cits.
Thanks everyone! I like to give you something to chew on at breakfast. 🙂
Griff @ #20 Wednesday, May 14th, 2025 – 7:58 am
They were onto it toot sweet! 😀
DPR of CBRsays:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 4:28 am
—
Thanks.
I think I’ll park that JWH analysis now and let the results speak for themselves.
It was a bit of fun that hopefully kept a few Bludgers entertained.
C@tmomma last night on the previous open thread, Diogenes appeared and posted some criticism of Minns’ workcover policy along with some provocation, followed immediately by about four trolls, also posting insulting and provoking comments.
Anyway about an hour had passed, and with no-one offering any strident defence of Minns, I took the opportunity to make fun of them. Some time later, after you had posted a measured defence of it, “Bec Carver”, who I’ve no doubt is who she claims to be, showed up, and in her criticism of the policy made some quite personal attacks on you.
So anyway my question, is this kind of externally organised provocation something that happens frequently? I love troll wars.
Re the wonders of the AEC – remember in other ‘democratic’ countries lawsuits about how far you can go to strip voting rights from people are a thing. We do have it really good.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/appeals-court-could-crack-down-on-anti-voting-groups-dangerous-mass-voter-challenges/
US Cartoons:
What is the AEC’s biggest ever stuff up?
King OMalley says:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 8:22 am
DPR of CBRsays:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 4:28 am
—
Thanks.
I think I’ll park that JWH analysis now and let the results speak for themselves.
It was a bit of fun that hopefully kept a few Bludgers entertained.
________
Thank you! I enjoyed it. Take a look into propensity score matching if you have an interest.
Entropy has the right of it that association does not imply causation, however. What we need is an RCT.
Surely Howard would be up for it? 😉
I fekt somewhat askance last night as I clicked on sky news’ upload of a “proud migrant success story” celebrating Sussan Ley’s rise to the top.
Now the libs knew they had to moderate to some degree post Dutton.
But I tip my hat to them. They’ve gone the full Monty. Doing the greens better then they could do themselves and promoting an African woman from Nigeria to lead them.
We can all learn a lesson in humility and inclusiveness from the Australian Liberal Party
Barton of course was easily retained by Labor, but imagine if 300 ballots had ended up at an AEC worker’s house in a close electorate like Bradfield.
“What is the AEC’s biggest ever stuff up?”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Australian_Senate_special_election_in_Western_Australia
“On 5 April 2014, an Australian Senate special election in Western Australia was held. The special election was held six months after the 2013 Australian federal election. The result of that 2013 election for the Australian Senate in Western Australia was voided on 20 February 2014 by the High Court of Australia, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, because 1,375 ballot papers were lost during an official recount in November 2013. The High Court ruled that because the number of lost ballots exceeded the margin for the two remaining Senate seats, the only acceptable remedy was to void the results and hold a special election”
This, by the way and perhaps counter intuitively, is one of my arguments against electronic voting. The High Court is shown it is potentially willing to order whole elections to be re-run, and if any doubt was cast on an electronic vote (e.g. its security because someone hacked something, or any claimed algorithm fault), I have no doubt the court would do the same, and we’d all have to do it again except with paper.
The federal Liberal Party handed over sensitive voter information to the Exclusive Brethren as part of a mammoth phone campaign in which members of the secretive Christian religious sect made nearly a million calls on behalf of the Coalition in the run-up to the federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/exclusive-brethren-made-nearly-a-million-calls-for-the-liberal-party-20250508-p5lxml.html
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How many new members did they recruit as a result of this effort?
“What is the AEC’s biggest ever stuff up?”
Let’s not knock this great institution, but I’m guessing the WA Senate election which had to be re-rerun? https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-senate-2014
#weatheronPB
Shadows have left us,
to the dull clouds, flat and grey,
slowly giving way.
RAIN COMING: 12 days of rain coming. We have to be patient, but hope we can look forward to this, as forecasts are showing.
Based upon Melbourne longer term forecast, I believe we can reasonably hope for rain, 12 days of rain predicted from 26/5/25 to 15/6/25.
Hopefully, this rain will break our drought or at least help us getting through until more rain comes, and swell our creeks and rivers again.
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From one of my Facebook groups last night.
Omar Comin’ at 8.34 am
Senate election in WA in 2013 which had to be re-run due to missing votes.
From everything I’ve heard the Exclusive Brethren were a net negative for the Coalition on polling booths. Don’t know about calling, depends if they were just as aggressively shouty on the phone.
Personally I hope being made to do free telesales calls for the Liberal Party and watching God absolutely not reward them or the Libs might have shaken the faith of some of the Brethren types.
Leroy, lefty_e, Dr Doolittle
Thanks – ooof!
Alpha Zero @ #38 Wednesday, May 14th, 2025 – 8:52 am
They were just doing it to canvass for votes for the election.
The Exclusive Brethren are a bunch of hypocrites. They state that they do not vote in elections because it is against their creed, but they do every damn thing else associated with politics to try and influence the vote, voters and politicians!
Actually, you’ve got to wonder how beholden Sussan ley is going to be to the Exclusive Brethren, seeing as how Alex Hawke was her numbers man, and while he’s an Evangelical Christian I’m sure there is outreach between the two groups.
Three senators that backed Sussan Ley depart in July. It brings her tally lead over from 4 votes to 1 vote against Angus Taylor. If two of those new senators swap over he has the numbers. Obviously they wouldn’t move straight after July there will be some soft votes in the Taylor camp that will give Ley 12 months probably. I think if Ley proposes reform on the Liberals including quotas for women the Taylor forces will look to stir up trouble.
“The closeness of Sussan Ley’s win over Angus Taylor — 29 votes to 25 — suggests the games are far from over.
Three of Ley’s votes are outgoing senators who leave the party room on July 1 when the new Senate begins.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-13/liberal-leadership-party-room-meeting-sussan-ley-angus-taylor/105286624
Outside of the Bludger bubble of Labor fanatics, Ley’s life story background will probably resonate with a lot of voters.
Cat at 7.17 am re Greber article
The Liberals have discovered the real meaning of Dutton’s favourite phrase, “plenty of time”. Even Senator McGrath, Mr Pre-poll, who took plenty of time to appreciate the extent of Labor’s victory, said so.
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 at 9:18 am
Outside of the Bludger bubble of Labor fanatics, Ley’s life story background will probably resonate with a lot of voters.
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A welcome change from the uni student, union official, staffer, then a finally an MP route.
They are friggin everywhere. No real life experience at all.