Three new national polls to report. Known unknowns include a big sample DemosAU poll that should be along later today, and the inevitable one-last-Newspoll.
• YouGov has a third and final MRP poll, constructing demographically based estimates for all 150 seats off an impressive sample of 35,185, conducted from April 1 to 29. This maintains the pollster’s recent form of strong results for Labor – and, perhaps more to the point, weak for the Coalition ” offering a median projection of 84 seats with the Coalition on just 47, the Greens on three, and 16 for independents and others. Projected Labor gains are Banks, Bonner, Braddon, Menzies, Moore and Sturt from the Liberals and Brisbane from the Greens, while the Coalition is further projected to lose Bradfield, Calare, Cowper and Wannon to independents. A detailed display allows for results to be explored at seat level. The national voting intention results are Labor 31.4%, Coalition 31.1%, Greens 12.6%, One Nation 9.3%, independents 8.1% and others 7.6%, with Labor leading 52.9-47.1 on two-party preferred.
• The final Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50-50 in its mid-campaign poll, the first lead for Labor in this series since March last year. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 37% (down two) and Greens 12% (steady). Leadership ratings are particularly encouraging for Labor, with Anthony Albanese up four on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 44%, Peter Dutton down one to 35% and up four to 51%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 46-41 to 49-39. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 2055, which is nearly twice as big as usual.
• The new online regional news publisher The Gazette has a second DemosAU national poll for the week, recording a two-party lead for Labor of 51-49, compared with 52-48 for the first. The primary votes are Labor 29%, Coalition 32%, Greens 12% and One Nation 9%, as compared with 29%, 31%, 14% and 9% in the earlier poll. It was conducted Sunday to Tuesday from a sample of 1974.
There remains the small matter of how accurate all this will prove to be, and the fresh memory of a general failure in 2019 that was in fact nothing special by international standards. The question of whether this was an aberration in a long-term record of strong performance by the Australian polling industry gets a negative answer from political scientist Luke Mansillo, who has been behind an aggregation model for The Guardian that long appeared quixotic in indicating a Labor primary vote in the high twenties, below what any individual poll was saying. The latter continues to be the case with its current central estimate of 30%, but its two-party preferred measure now has an eminently believable central estimate of 51.5-48.5 in Labor’s favour.
A sense of why such a model should be so bearish with respect to Labor can be gained by comparing final week polling for the most recent elections federally and for the five mainland states with the actual results. The table below goes into detail for two pollsters who have covered enough state elections to make them worth the effort, followed by all final week polls combined for each election (no row is featured for South Australia as the only such poll was the Newspoll).
| ALP TPP | ALP | L-NP | GRN | |
| Newspoll | ||||
| WA 2025 | +0.4 | +2.6 | +0.8 | -1.1 |
| Qld 2024 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| NSW 2023 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -0.4 | +1.3 |
| Vic 2022 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -2.0 | +0.5 |
| Fed 2022 | +0.9 | +3.4 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| SA 2022 | -0.6 | +1.0 | +2.3 | -0.1 |
| Average | +0.3 | +1.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Resolve Strategic | ||||
| NSW 2023 | +1.0 | +2.6 | -1.7 | |
| Vic 2022 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -1.4 | |
| Fed 2022 | -1.3 | -1.3 | +1.2 | |
| Average | -0.3 | +0.9 | -0.6 | |
| All polls | ||||
| WA 2025 (2) | +0.1 | +2.1 | +1.3 | -0.6 |
| Qld 2024 (2) | +2.1 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +2.1 |
| NSW 2023 (3) | -0.5 | +0.7 | +1.3 | -0.0 |
| Vic 2022 (3) | -0.9 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +0.0 |
| Fed 2022 (5) | +0.2 | +2.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Average (16) | +0.1 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Thirteen of the sixteen polls covered here overestimated the Labor primary vote, but these errors have tended to be obscured by weaker readings for Labor on two-party preferred, which have shown no bias one way or the other. This was notably the case at the 2022 federal election, at which the last polls by Newspoll and Ipsos both had Labor on 36% – well clear of an actual result of 32.6% – but did well enough in recording two-party preferred at 53-47, compared with an election result of 52.1-47.9. The suggestion of pollsters under-estimating preference flows to Labor is at odds with an emerging narrative about tomorrow’s election that was covered here in depth yesterday.
My own BludgerTrack aggregate, which was given the seal of approval of Laura Tingle of the ABC on 7:30 last night, abandoned the notion of correcting for past observed bias after 2019, and now presumes only to offer a snapshot of what the polls are saying, warts and all. Adjustments are made, but their aim is to reduce distinctions between, on the one hand, Pyxis Polling and YouGov – both of which have had charge of Newspoll at different points throughout the past three years – and the various other pollsters. In two-party terms, these adjustments amount to about three-quarters of a point in Labor’s favour for Freshwater Strategy and half a point for Resolve Strategic, and about a third of a point in the Coalition’s favour for RedBridge Group.
As the table shows, correcting BludgerTrack for the general pattern of errors over the past few years would essentially involve moving about 1.5% from Labor to the “others” column. To extrapolate that to various estimates that were discussed in yesterday’s post on the subject, that would reduce Labor from its present 53.0-47.0 lead in BludgerTrack to 52.3-47.7 based on 2022 election preference flows; to 51.7-48.3 on YouGov’s current preference model; and to 51.9-48.1 on what I take Newspoll to be doing. The latter two are a fairly comfortable fit for what The Guardian’s model says. Then there is what I described yesterday as the “maximal” model, which accommodates what some observes take to be an historic blowout in the share of preferences the Coalition is about to receive from right-wing parties. This tips the balance all the way to 50.4-49.6 in favour of the Coalition by giving them 80% of a 7.9% One Nation vote and nearly as much of Trumpet of Patriots’ 3.5%.
So the lnp have lost ground – labor majority in site?
Looks like Labor needs the Greens to get them over the line again.
If it’s 52.5/47.5 it’s a majority…
Newspoll
Preferred PM: Albanese 51 (0) Dutton 35 (0)
Albanese: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 52 (0)
Dutton: Approve 32 (-3) Disapprove 60 (+1)
“Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people. greens ‘minds’ discuss high-deas.”
All I want is for the LNP seat count to have a 4 in front of it.
Great fleas have little fleas upon their backs to bite ’em,
And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so ad infinitum.
And the great fleas themselves, in turn, have greater fleas to go on;
While these again have greater still, and greater still, and so on.
Wonder if William will go for broke with a second post today. Odds on I suspect.
There are several things I won’t miss after tomorrow:
“This is a sliding doors moment” (Dutton)
#25 in 25 or whatever it is (Greens/Indies -just reminded me of project 2025)
“It is a toss up/it’s close” (media)
Nows there’s a headline for Murdoch media. Albanese approval drops in final Newspoll!
This election looks very different for those in SA.
No corflutes on public infrastructure – stobie poles, street lights etc… They were banned in late 2024.
The streets seem almost normal.
There have been a few exceptions – I have seen some anti Labor corflutes on SA water facility fencing.
New thread.
Mick says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 5:45 pm
@Spence,
Unfortunately I’m in NSW and I can’t stand Mehreen Faruqi – so I find myself in the position of not wanting to vote Green at all above the line, or having to do a below-the-line vote excluding her but knowing the 2nd position Green candidate has no hope.
Being in Bennelong and being happy with Jerome I think it’s straightforward to follow Labor’s HTV for the house.
*********
Mick, I’d like to reiterate Spence’s advice/plea. At some point it has to be about the political position as much as the person. I’ve had plenty of occasions where I’ve voted for Labor candidates I don’t like. By all means put Faruqi after all the other Labor, Greens and other left(ish) candidates, but give her a number. She can’t be THAT much more unlikeable than the third Lib or the ON candidate.
Timmy says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 6:57 pm
At least Shorten didn’t knife the PM this term…
…………………………………………………………………………………
I have it on good authority Shorten was always waiting behind ‘the curtans’ for the appropriate moment to strike.
Alas for him, Albo never gave him the opportunity and when 6 months before an election was due
his time had run out.
Besides, the days of knifing were well and truly over.
”
Confessionssays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 5:53 pm
Princeplanet @ #452 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 5:49 pm
If things really go awry for the LNP / Libs and PD loses his seat ( I’m not confident he will) it will be because of his insensitive moving to Kirribilli comments. His comments really struck a bum note with many up here especially in his electorate where it’s well remembered about his attempt to jump ship to the Gold Coast ( where even the homeless vote LNP). Sydney is even glitzier than the GC and the good burghers of Dickson should be well pissed.
Did his absence during the cyclone aftermath not resonate with Qlders? If he was a WA based MP it def would’ve!
”
The reason it might not have resonated
1. QLD is one print newspaper state owned by Murdoch. So it might not have been spread far and wide.
2. QLDers are possessive (some say parochial) about their federal politicians and sports teams
3. All the leaders of opposition such Dutton, Littleproud, Hanson, Palmer, Rennick are from QLD. So it tells the nature of most of QLDers.
Seriously frigin S. Ferguson.. predicating ANY question with the loaded please “debt & deficit ” is nothing short of amateur bullshit..
Is there an ophthalmologist on this site? If so, is there a reason why Patterson wears such broad specs? I mean, they are almost as broad as his shoulders. You’d think that at his age – 37 – he wouldn’t have cataracts or macular degeneration.
Dr Fumbles McStupid @
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 6:04 pm wrote:
I thought I hadn’t received any, but then checked my phone’s Spam folder – and sure enough, there were two blocked messages. My wife reports the same – she has a Samsung and I have an Oppo, so two thumbs up to the Spam blocking function on these phones.
We’re in Newcastle, where there is a Trumpet running.
JimmyDsays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 7:07 pm
I find it interesting that you left out the sentence that immediately follows the quoted line above. As much as it pains me to quote Wikipedia, here it is:
“In scholarly use, the term is often left undefined or used to describe a multitude of phenomena; however, it is primarily employed to delineate the societal transformation resulting from market-based reforms.” [bold emphasis mine]
The fact that you left the second part out suggests you know perfectly well what is meant by neoliberalism
______________________
I concede that you have made an excellent point. Some interesting market reforms in history of note include:
– Roman republic privatisation of firefighting
– Diocletian’s edict on prices
– land consolidation under feudalism
– the English armada
and so on
I see your frustration… neoliberalism has been a scourge for millennia!
Sleeper tomorrow could be Payman she is running senate candidates in NSW and VIC as well.
The preference whisperer and Payman have been invisible wonder if they have got something cooking and The Greens put her and the Teals ahead of labor on prefs says an article I read .
subgeometersays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 1:30 pm
538 gave Trump a 33% chance of winning 2016, so it wasn’t that the polling was way off, it was the groupthink among liberal commentators that Trump couldn’t win, because it was unthinkable to them, so they kind of tried to negotiate with the evidence, downplaying this and highlighting that.
If every poll was totally wrong and Dutton wins, that would be a failure way beyond 2016 or even 2019, which showed a narrowing gap, and Morrison PPM
———————————————————
Trump still got smacked in the popular vote by near 3 million. College votes got him over the line.
I doubt the surprise of 2019 will be repeated – Scott Morrison wasn`t as well known to the Australian public as Peter Dutton is and Dutton`s been willing in his career to wear unpopular decisions.
Bill Shorten died on the hill of Negative Gearing – something which the slippery Albanese and Co have no qualms lying about including the blatant unblinking lie of Albanese to the media and Australian public that there would be no deals done with the Green in the possibility of not getting enough seats to govern in Labor`s own right.
However, don`t be surprised to see the Liberals do better than all the forecasts. There are significant numbers of voters and not only the affluent middle class older generations who own their own homes and saved their money instead of relying on other people`s taxes who resist the national credit card handouts promised by Labor. There is a real sense among these voters that kicking the can down the road for Aus children, grandchildren and great children is reckless and unacceptable.
Expect the distrust of the Albanese Government`s promises of free money and its ideological agendas to translate into more votes for conservative candidates in the Senate. The Greens vote could actually decrease because they are open about what they want to do which will require higher taxes and doing away with being able to claim costs against your income tax as one of the advantages offered by Negative Gearing.
I wouldn`t be surprised if the Liberals pick up more marginal Labor seats than expected as well as at least one Teal `Independent but in cahoots with Holmes A Court type elites` seat. But it`s the Senate that will be the one to watch.
Entertainment for those waiting to vote provided by the North Korean Peoples army show band.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYvcdhCbzJw
I have had my Democracy Sausage and a. Anzac bikkie as this Adekaide booth has a baked goods sale too!
There is a steady stream of voters
Many are not taking any htv cards, as if they have already made up their minds.