Three new national polls to report. Known unknowns include a big sample DemosAU poll that should be along later today, and the inevitable one-last-Newspoll.
• YouGov has a third and final MRP poll, constructing demographically based estimates for all 150 seats off an impressive sample of 35,185, conducted from April 1 to 29. This maintains the pollster’s recent form of strong results for Labor – and, perhaps more to the point, weak for the Coalition ” offering a median projection of 84 seats with the Coalition on just 47, the Greens on three, and 16 for independents and others. Projected Labor gains are Banks, Bonner, Braddon, Menzies, Moore and Sturt from the Liberals and Brisbane from the Greens, while the Coalition is further projected to lose Bradfield, Calare, Cowper and Wannon to independents. A detailed display allows for results to be explored at seat level. The national voting intention results are Labor 31.4%, Coalition 31.1%, Greens 12.6%, One Nation 9.3%, independents 8.1% and others 7.6%, with Labor leading 52.9-47.1 on two-party preferred.
• The final Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50-50 in its mid-campaign poll, the first lead for Labor in this series since March last year. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 37% (down two) and Greens 12% (steady). Leadership ratings are particularly encouraging for Labor, with Anthony Albanese up four on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 44%, Peter Dutton down one to 35% and up four to 51%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 46-41 to 49-39. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 2055, which is nearly twice as big as usual.
• The new online regional news publisher The Gazette has a second DemosAU national poll for the week, recording a two-party lead for Labor of 51-49, compared with 52-48 for the first. The primary votes are Labor 29%, Coalition 32%, Greens 12% and One Nation 9%, as compared with 29%, 31%, 14% and 9% in the earlier poll. It was conducted Sunday to Tuesday from a sample of 1974.
There remains the small matter of how accurate all this will prove to be, and the fresh memory of a general failure in 2019 that was in fact nothing special by international standards. The question of whether this was an aberration in a long-term record of strong performance by the Australian polling industry gets a negative answer from political scientist Luke Mansillo, who has been behind an aggregation model for The Guardian that long appeared quixotic in indicating a Labor primary vote in the high twenties, below what any individual poll was saying. The latter continues to be the case with its current central estimate of 30%, but its two-party preferred measure now has an eminently believable central estimate of 51.5-48.5 in Labor’s favour.
A sense of why such a model should be so bearish with respect to Labor can be gained by comparing final week polling for the most recent elections federally and for the five mainland states with the actual results. The table below goes into detail for two pollsters who have covered enough state elections to make them worth the effort, followed by all final week polls combined for each election (no row is featured for South Australia as the only such poll was the Newspoll).
| ALP TPP | ALP | L-NP | GRN | |
| Newspoll | ||||
| WA 2025 | +0.4 | +2.6 | +0.8 | -1.1 |
| Qld 2024 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| NSW 2023 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -0.4 | +1.3 |
| Vic 2022 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -2.0 | +0.5 |
| Fed 2022 | +0.9 | +3.4 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| SA 2022 | -0.6 | +1.0 | +2.3 | -0.1 |
| Average | +0.3 | +1.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Resolve Strategic | ||||
| NSW 2023 | +1.0 | +2.6 | -1.7 | |
| Vic 2022 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -1.4 | |
| Fed 2022 | -1.3 | -1.3 | +1.2 | |
| Average | -0.3 | +0.9 | -0.6 | |
| All polls | ||||
| WA 2025 (2) | +0.1 | +2.1 | +1.3 | -0.6 |
| Qld 2024 (2) | +2.1 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +2.1 |
| NSW 2023 (3) | -0.5 | +0.7 | +1.3 | -0.0 |
| Vic 2022 (3) | -0.9 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +0.0 |
| Fed 2022 (5) | +0.2 | +2.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Average (16) | +0.1 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Thirteen of the sixteen polls covered here overestimated the Labor primary vote, but these errors have tended to be obscured by weaker readings for Labor on two-party preferred, which have shown no bias one way or the other. This was notably the case at the 2022 federal election, at which the last polls by Newspoll and Ipsos both had Labor on 36% – well clear of an actual result of 32.6% – but did well enough in recording two-party preferred at 53-47, compared with an election result of 52.1-47.9. The suggestion of pollsters under-estimating preference flows to Labor is at odds with an emerging narrative about tomorrow’s election that was covered here in depth yesterday.
My own BludgerTrack aggregate, which was given the seal of approval of Laura Tingle of the ABC on 7:30 last night, abandoned the notion of correcting for past observed bias after 2019, and now presumes only to offer a snapshot of what the polls are saying, warts and all. Adjustments are made, but their aim is to reduce distinctions between, on the one hand, Pyxis Polling and YouGov – both of which have had charge of Newspoll at different points throughout the past three years – and the various other pollsters. In two-party terms, these adjustments amount to about three-quarters of a point in Labor’s favour for Freshwater Strategy and half a point for Resolve Strategic, and about a third of a point in the Coalition’s favour for RedBridge Group.
As the table shows, correcting BludgerTrack for the general pattern of errors over the past few years would essentially involve moving about 1.5% from Labor to the “others” column. To extrapolate that to various estimates that were discussed in yesterday’s post on the subject, that would reduce Labor from its present 53.0-47.0 lead in BludgerTrack to 52.3-47.7 based on 2022 election preference flows; to 51.7-48.3 on YouGov’s current preference model; and to 51.9-48.1 on what I take Newspoll to be doing. The latter two are a fairly comfortable fit for what The Guardian’s model says. Then there is what I described yesterday as the “maximal” model, which accommodates what some observes take to be an historic blowout in the share of preferences the Coalition is about to receive from right-wing parties. This tips the balance all the way to 50.4-49.6 in favour of the Coalition by giving them 80% of a 7.9% One Nation vote and nearly as much of Trumpet of Patriots’ 3.5%.
Hard Being Green, what are these rules you keep talking about? And what is 25 in 25?
JimmyDsays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 5:10 pm
HILDA data goes back a decade on the ABS website – wealth inequality in hilda is better than any of those prior data points.
I’m happy to debate rival data publishers all night, but I’m noticing a concerning pattern of distrust in official statistics just because it does not fit your narrative.
But I agree, getting more income into people’s hands are they way to go – more for them to save and invest. The best way is to get them a well paying job in a growing economy, not scaring investment away from imported culture wars. Ive already separately posted that super should be a component of the welfare system, building of Labors success in getting super for paid parental leave.
If things really go awry for the LNP / Libs and PD loses his seat ( I’m not confident he will) it will be because of his insensitive moving to Kirribilli comments. His comments really struck a bum note with many up here especially in his electorate where it’s well remembered about his attempt to jump ship to the Gold Coast ( where even the homeless vote LNP). Sydney is even glitzier than the GC and the good burghers of Dickson should be well pissed.
BK says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 5:44 pm
Confessions
Just now I received missive number 7 from Mr Fong.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
Me too !
But I don’t mind, you know what they say:
KNOW THY ENEMY !
@Princeplanet,
The Kirribilli comments, but critically also the trip to Sydney for the fundraiser while the cyclone was approaching Brisbane.
Mick – would you prefer a One Nation senator to Farugi?
Alp seem to be preferred still @1.62 majority vs 2.88 minority with bookies.
The msn seem at odds with this over the last week.
Princeplanet @ #452 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 5:49 pm
Did his absence during the cyclone aftermath not resonate with Qlders? If he was a WA based MP it def would’ve!
Neoliberalism isn’t associated with smaller government – its key feature is the delusional belief that public goods provision can be structured in market-like ways – but the government is still funding everything. It is always better for those public goods – aged care, child care, disability support, public housing, income support – to involve democratically accountable PUBLIC organisations that are motivated by their civic ethic and their identification with the people they serve. NOT parasitic organisations that are motivated by profit. That is what we have learned from 40 years of failed neoliberal policies in Australia. Keating and Hawke were gullible morons for embracing that right-wing political project.
Griff. I think you know what you are doing. Giving a first Senate preference to Fusion is fine. They might get elected. But not also giving a preference to Labor and Greens somewhere increases chances of a conservative or right-winger getting the last senator elected.
Just voted at the Embassy in Brussels. Between 30 and 50 people have been voting there each day.
Only election HTV voting info on site was an ALP QR code to scan and find your local Labor HTV.
The thing uniting everyone voting there was that people were still getting Trumpet of Pathetic texts while overseas.
I’ve loved listening to Bluey for the election BW. He’s a good egg. Toss him a crab for me. Thanks for transcribing.
When a Green says that Labor was not prepared to negotiate, what they mean is that Labor would not allow the Greens to dictate a minority policy position.
And Greens wonder why Labor now flatly refuses to enter coalition government with them. Stunned and amazed emoji.
Jeez, so you can’t even escape the Trumpet text when you aren’t even in Australia!
How does that work FFS?
Nicholas @ 5:42pm,
“The Greens have a difficult role to play – extracting more resources from an economically illiterate Labor Government without coming across as too obstructionist.”
Since when are the Greens bastions of economic rigour? Do the Greens even have an economic policy, beyond “let’s tax big corporations” (and cross our fingers that they don’t bugger off elsewhere).
There should be some consideration of assisting overseas voters to vote without having to go to heroic efforts to get to an Australian embassy. Some form of remote voting potentially via a website managed by AEC should be possible.
I love how Shanahan claims that a win is really a loss:
Missed out here, not one Trump’s Pet text message this election
Has there ever been a less gaffe-prone campaign than this one by Labor?
Dennis Shanahan faces the danger of being seen to have disappeared into the ether somewhere for failing to implement the Murdoch agenda.
Trent Slaters @ #444 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 5:48 pm
“25 in 25” is a slogan by Greens and Teals supporters that want to see at least 25 crossbenchers elected to force a minority government basically.
Dr Fumbles McStupid @ #467 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 6:04 pm
Half you luck. I’ve had 7 or 8 and all in the past 2 weeks.
per reddit, Mr Fong can eat a dong.
Some deeply concerning intimidating behaviour at prepoll centres in Boothby (I observed in Colonel Light Gardens, but similar reports from Brighton and Plympton) by members of the Plymouth Brethren today, on behalf of the liberal party’s candidate Nicole Flint.
A list of specific incidents is being compiled by other volunteers supporting both the ALP and the Greens. This afternoon state attorney general Kyam Maher was in attendance and observed what was happening.
I have never seen such degrading, belittling and intimidating abuse in a public place in this country ever, let alone at a polling booth.
If this is what Flint needs to resort to in order to scare progressive voters away, she forfeits any right to hold any public office.
Spence @ #463 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 6:06 pm
I like to refer to it as the “Oubliette” for News Corp journo’s that fail to carry out Murdoch’s agenda.
Basically a dungeon where the only way in or out is through a locked cage door on the ceiling. Where people that displease the tyrant are sent to disappear and be forgotten.
Kirsdarke @ #470 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 6:06 pm
Oh, I thought it was 25 Greens MPs elected.
Do these people realise that the crossbenchers elected are highly unlikely to be 100% progressive or socialist?
Seriously, the best outcome for our country right now is a majority Labor government.
About time we heard from Piers Ackerman about how the Coalition has run a flawless winning campaign.
Eston Kohver:
It would seem that the more the chances of a coalition win dissipate, their unruly tactics at polling places increase.
“25 in 25” is a slogan by Greens and Teals supporters that want to see at least 25 crossbenchers elected to force a minority government basically.
_________________________________________
Thanks, when I googled it I ended up on some medical site in the UK.
That said, it probably correlates as that many crossbenches would give anyone a heart attack. We’d become as pathetic as politics in Europe.
#themoodonPB
Nervous screams leak out.
The walls are stained with the noise,
held tight for a day.
What seemed like becoming an election battleground centred around Albo’s response to the war in the middle east, has now become, in the words of Margaret Whitlam, ‘A LOT OF HOO-HA’.
Kis
Thanks for that. Does 25 in 25 exist outside Pollbludger?
Also, I asked Hard To Be Green last night what “The Rules” were. Crickets.
Do you have ny idea what they are, or why they are significant.
Considering we already have competing definitions of “neoliberalism”, even amongst ardent users of the term. A gold time to remind:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism
“In scholarly use, the term is often left undefined or used to describe a multitude of phenomena;”
Y’all might want to caucus your insults a bit more before throwing them around.
Trent I’m hoping for a couple of things this election, I’m calling them my rules
1. That the combined major party primary vote is under 2/3rds. Currently 4 of the 6 final polls released hit that rule
2. That the Greens poll in the teens, 3 of the 6 have that with the other 3 all at 12
My hope is that if both those things happen we will land on a minority Labor government
#25in25 is my shortcut way of saying the cross bench will grow to 25 this election
As a point of interest one of the first moves of Mark Carney in Canada has been to expand their dental scheme
@ Douglas
I did a quick Google search the other night thinking I’d missed something, but it took me right back here.
@Team Katich “Yep. Unless i missed it, I havent seen the ALP attacking the LNP much on the preference deals with ON. It is possible that the ALP are losing a small amount of voters to ON and will expect (hope) those votes back in preferences”
That’s a very keen observation.
Yes, I think you’re right that Labor has left it to media figures to ping the Coalition for that deal for that exact reason – you don’t want the ON voters who put Labor ahead of the Liberals to feel Labor is attacking them personally (basket of deplorables style).
Bizzcan,
I have provided you data and sources from University of Melbourne, Monash, UNSW, and the Australian Council of Social Services – all of which you have refused to acknowledge.
I have not once questioned the validity of the ABS data – only your interpretation of it. Your narrative is the one attempting to shoe-horn the data to fit – and fit it does not, because you are attempting to conflate the temporary response to a once-in-a-century pandemic with the macro policy trends causing increasing wealth inequality.
To draw an analogy – your narrative is the equivalent of a climate change sceptic citing the 2022-23 temporary decline in global temperatures due the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai as proof that climate-change has reversed!
Daniel B. Guidelines for being a legend in your own lunch box. (not you).
Nicholas
If I were leading the Greens I’d be using the ‘abstain’ option rather than voting no, in the parliament.
That removes the ‘obstructionist’ tag as well as giving them the ability to state their own position on legislation. Politically, it’s much better.
No.
Penny Wong gaffe a howler at the worst possible time and circumstance.
If you’ve got a spare 2 and a half hours in the next couple of days as we wait for the results to come in tomorrow night, here’s a Friendlyjordies stream where he mostly talks about why a minority government would be a bad thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVBMYpt9L8E
(Caveat that he’s primarily a comedian so he can be a bit vulgar at times, but he makes his point fairly well for most of the time).
‘Pi says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 5:57 pm
I’ve loved listening to Bluey for the election BW. He’s a good egg. Toss him a crab for me. Thanks for transcribing.’
==============
I’ll let Bluey know.
I can’t believe we’re doing the CPRS debate again, but since we are, I’d like to remind our Green posters of something they either forget or choose to ignore, the fact that Labor negotiated with the Coalition because the Greens could not supply the numbers on their own at the time to pass anything. That was the reality and the Greens have tried to rewrite history ever since.
Late Riser, your best one in a long time.
Yeah Mick spot on !! The trip to Sydney with a billionaire “hospo” Tzar down on Sydney harbour while Chalmers and Albo were in Brisbane. I hope the long suffering voters of Dickson finally work this guy out.
When Peta Credlin walks into a bar after Saturday night, the barman won’t have to ask her
“Why such a long face ?”
Astrobleme says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 5:30 pm
“This is a gross oversimplification and generalisation – the Greens are concerned with the safety of all people.”
I don’t think you understand. I have family who are Jewish, and who should be voting Greens by general policy… but they can’t vote for the Greens, because the Greens actively make them not welcome, and basically (verbally) attack them for being Jewish. It’s all well and good for the Greens to generally be “concerned with the safety of all people”, but I’m telling you, there’s a serious problem within the Greens on this topic. It’s neither an oversimplification nor a generalisation – it’s literally relaying what’s going on.
“Labor refused to negotiate.”
It doesn’t matter. I criticise Labor for their attitude at that time, too, but it’s beside the point. The CPRS as Labor put it forward was an improvement on how things were, and pushing for improvements could have been done after passing it. Instead, we ended up with nothing. The Greens should be pushing for negotiations, but they need to stop making the perfect the enemy of the good, and if they have to temporarily relent on their demands to get something good in place, they should do it.
“It’s Foreign Policy. It’s naïve to think other countries can’t affect each other.
Also, Why wouldn’t you want the Palestinians to be free?”
I want them to be free (of both Hamas and Israeli aggression – both sides are destroying Palestinians’ lives and livelihoods). But that’s beside the point – foreign policy for an election should be broad and based on principles, rather than specific and addressing only one case. And “Free Palestine” is one of their headline policies, which is nonsensical for an election campaign. But even that’s beside the point – their foreign policy is two things – free palestine and no forced labour. Both laudable goals, but where’s the rest of their foreign policy?
“It’s not.”
Look on their website at the relevant section. Literally. Here, I’ll help: https://greens.org.au/portfolios/trade-tourism
“There’s a difference between ending mining and ending NEW mining.
Remember, a lot of coal is exported.”
Then have a policy of ending coal export for energy generation, for example. Coal is used for carbon fibre production, steel production, medicine production, and cement production, to name a few things. The Greens are often too black-or-white when it comes to these sorts of things, and don’t understand moderation. Don’t get me wrong, Labor’s gone too far the other way. But the Greens have taken it too far.
Pied “moon howler” coming on at best time and circumstance.
98.6 @ #484 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 6:23 pm
She’ll be horse.