Three new national polls to report. Known unknowns include a big sample DemosAU poll that should be along later today, and the inevitable one-last-Newspoll.
• YouGov has a third and final MRP poll, constructing demographically based estimates for all 150 seats off an impressive sample of 35,185, conducted from April 1 to 29. This maintains the pollster’s recent form of strong results for Labor – and, perhaps more to the point, weak for the Coalition ” offering a median projection of 84 seats with the Coalition on just 47, the Greens on three, and 16 for independents and others. Projected Labor gains are Banks, Bonner, Braddon, Menzies, Moore and Sturt from the Liberals and Brisbane from the Greens, while the Coalition is further projected to lose Bradfield, Calare, Cowper and Wannon to independents. A detailed display allows for results to be explored at seat level. The national voting intention results are Labor 31.4%, Coalition 31.1%, Greens 12.6%, One Nation 9.3%, independents 8.1% and others 7.6%, with Labor leading 52.9-47.1 on two-party preferred.
• The final Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50-50 in its mid-campaign poll, the first lead for Labor in this series since March last year. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 37% (down two) and Greens 12% (steady). Leadership ratings are particularly encouraging for Labor, with Anthony Albanese up four on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 44%, Peter Dutton down one to 35% and up four to 51%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 46-41 to 49-39. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 2055, which is nearly twice as big as usual.
• The new online regional news publisher The Gazette has a second DemosAU national poll for the week, recording a two-party lead for Labor of 51-49, compared with 52-48 for the first. The primary votes are Labor 29%, Coalition 32%, Greens 12% and One Nation 9%, as compared with 29%, 31%, 14% and 9% in the earlier poll. It was conducted Sunday to Tuesday from a sample of 1974.
There remains the small matter of how accurate all this will prove to be, and the fresh memory of a general failure in 2019 that was in fact nothing special by international standards. The question of whether this was an aberration in a long-term record of strong performance by the Australian polling industry gets a negative answer from political scientist Luke Mansillo, who has been behind an aggregation model for The Guardian that long appeared quixotic in indicating a Labor primary vote in the high twenties, below what any individual poll was saying. The latter continues to be the case with its current central estimate of 30%, but its two-party preferred measure now has an eminently believable central estimate of 51.5-48.5 in Labor’s favour.
A sense of why such a model should be so bearish with respect to Labor can be gained by comparing final week polling for the most recent elections federally and for the five mainland states with the actual results. The table below goes into detail for two pollsters who have covered enough state elections to make them worth the effort, followed by all final week polls combined for each election (no row is featured for South Australia as the only such poll was the Newspoll).
| ALP TPP | ALP | L-NP | GRN | |
| Newspoll | ||||
| WA 2025 | +0.4 | +2.6 | +0.8 | -1.1 |
| Qld 2024 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| NSW 2023 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -0.4 | +1.3 |
| Vic 2022 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -2.0 | +0.5 |
| Fed 2022 | +0.9 | +3.4 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| SA 2022 | -0.6 | +1.0 | +2.3 | -0.1 |
| Average | +0.3 | +1.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Resolve Strategic | ||||
| NSW 2023 | +1.0 | +2.6 | -1.7 | |
| Vic 2022 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -1.4 | |
| Fed 2022 | -1.3 | -1.3 | +1.2 | |
| Average | -0.3 | +0.9 | -0.6 | |
| All polls | ||||
| WA 2025 (2) | +0.1 | +2.1 | +1.3 | -0.6 |
| Qld 2024 (2) | +2.1 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +2.1 |
| NSW 2023 (3) | -0.5 | +0.7 | +1.3 | -0.0 |
| Vic 2022 (3) | -0.9 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +0.0 |
| Fed 2022 (5) | +0.2 | +2.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Average (16) | +0.1 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Thirteen of the sixteen polls covered here overestimated the Labor primary vote, but these errors have tended to be obscured by weaker readings for Labor on two-party preferred, which have shown no bias one way or the other. This was notably the case at the 2022 federal election, at which the last polls by Newspoll and Ipsos both had Labor on 36% – well clear of an actual result of 32.6% – but did well enough in recording two-party preferred at 53-47, compared with an election result of 52.1-47.9. The suggestion of pollsters under-estimating preference flows to Labor is at odds with an emerging narrative about tomorrow’s election that was covered here in depth yesterday.
My own BludgerTrack aggregate, which was given the seal of approval of Laura Tingle of the ABC on 7:30 last night, abandoned the notion of correcting for past observed bias after 2019, and now presumes only to offer a snapshot of what the polls are saying, warts and all. Adjustments are made, but their aim is to reduce distinctions between, on the one hand, Pyxis Polling and YouGov – both of which have had charge of Newspoll at different points throughout the past three years – and the various other pollsters. In two-party terms, these adjustments amount to about three-quarters of a point in Labor’s favour for Freshwater Strategy and half a point for Resolve Strategic, and about a third of a point in the Coalition’s favour for RedBridge Group.
As the table shows, correcting BludgerTrack for the general pattern of errors over the past few years would essentially involve moving about 1.5% from Labor to the “others” column. To extrapolate that to various estimates that were discussed in yesterday’s post on the subject, that would reduce Labor from its present 53.0-47.0 lead in BludgerTrack to 52.3-47.7 based on 2022 election preference flows; to 51.7-48.3 on YouGov’s current preference model; and to 51.9-48.1 on what I take Newspoll to be doing. The latter two are a fairly comfortable fit for what The Guardian’s model says. Then there is what I described yesterday as the “maximal” model, which accommodates what some observes take to be an historic blowout in the share of preferences the Coalition is about to receive from right-wing parties. This tips the balance all the way to 50.4-49.6 in favour of the Coalition by giving them 80% of a 7.9% One Nation vote and nearly as much of Trumpet of Patriots’ 3.5%.
Ok, so LNP are toast even after “correcting” the polls to allow for unprecedented preference flows to them.
Sportsbet has them at over 10 bucks now, and Polymarket has majority ALP at 66% at time of posting.
1 more day until the potato is mashed.
The yougov prediction of 84 would be glorious. All I would want more is Hastie or Dutton gone and Dai Le being booted back to the real estate agency masquerading as a council in Fowler.
madPJKfan @ #1 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 3:49 am
Not quite true. The boss has the Coalition on 50.4 if their embrace of Pauline pays off. Pray it isn’t so.
So what is William saying? That this series of polls is over estimating Labor’s primary vote? So which of all those numbers is the one I should most confidence in? What’s the best estimate of Labor primary and TPP?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-02/economists-criticise-coalition-budget-federal-election-2025/105241356
lol if you’re relying on firing 41k workers to fill your budget gap you’re in delusion territory.
I’m sure some of the work done by civil servants in Canberra could be done by staff located elsewhere but if you fire a few thousand in Canberra only to employ them elsewhere you’ve not saved anything at all especially if you have to pay termination payments and so on.
The 2019,2022 and now the Aunty Pauline 2025 scenario versions are all still within possibilities and perhaps a new hybrid version entailing some other factors such as gender, generation change and aspirations, international infusions and two party traditions.
A very “sobering” summation by WB !
After the upset in the USA where I thought Trump unelectable it is entirely possible that Dutton might pull off the impossible. There are a lot of differences though that make this scenario unlikely, firstly compulsory voting and this making polling more accurate. The 2019 narrative looms large but big differences are Labors incumbency and the fact it’s the LNP that are the unknown quantity also the vibe. I started the 2019 election super confident for Shorten but as it got near the finish line started to have big doubts especially about my fellow Qlders who seemed to have no enthusiasm for Shorten . This time I feel confident for Albo without any such nerves. Lastly the LNP is talentless and in disarray, they don’t even have any of those so called moderates like Pyne or Birmingham left to put a reasonable spin on what are usually unreasonable policies. This campaign has been a shemozzle. I know because of our media landscape and that the LNP represent big money and the financially well endowed they are able to shrug off sh*storms easier than Labor ( who gets hounded for small discretions) but c’mon surely everyone knows they are not fit to govern.
“… political scientist Luke Mansillo, who has been behind an aggregation model for The Guardian that long appeared quixotic in indicating a Labor primary vote in the high twenties, below what any individual poll was saying.”
Indeed, the Guardian aggregate seemed more of a ‘laggregate’, continuing to report Labor behind on 2PP long after William’s and Dr Kev’s had crossed the equator.
Penny Wong has backflipped on Voice.
Too late damage is done she will be nervous on sat night.Not as if one nations vote was not surging anyway but Wong may of turbo charged it.Given the recent libs/one nation preferencing deal even more damaging.
Howler!
The arrogance of the West Australians main story today how dare the labor candidate lay dead for Chaney!
WB: maybe you could make a .svg available of the bludgertrack graph, I did see it on TV a couple of days ago i thought, and it looked a bit chunky.
EDIT: now that I look, maybe it already is, and it was a problem their end.
“My own BludgerTrack aggregate, which was given the seal of approval of Laura Tingle of the ABC on 7:30 last night …”
Well done, William!
The Daily Rupert has an ‘exit poll’ in Dickson..
Peter Dutton is facing a battle of two fronts with the Opposition Leader in a fight for his own seat of Dickson based on a poll of real voters across the electorate north of Brisbane.
The exclusive exit poll of 200 early voters, conducted by The Courier-Mail on Thursday, came as Mr Dutton jetted in to Queensland in the dying days of the campaign to sandbag his seat – Queensland’s most marginal.
It was the third visit to Dickson for Mr Dutton in the past five weeks, a move Labor, who audaciously started the campaign on the Opposition Leader’s home turf, said proved he was worried.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/federal-election/exit-poll-shows-peter-dutton-in-danger-of-nuclear-fallout-in-own-seat-of-dickson/news-story/6b9fb1f7459990719aa7971c768139a1
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-resorts-to-red-meat-but-the-liberal-base-won-t-decide-this-election-20250501-p5lvsw.html
When looked at their campaign like that, pitching to the base rather than the middle, it doesn’t feel like the coalition believe they can win.
pied piper says:
“Penny Wong has backflipped on Voice. Too late damage is done she will be nervous on sat night.”
Peter Dutton has backflipped on Trump.
Too late, damage is done. He will be nervous on Saturday night.
Dutton in danger in Dickson?
Peter Poilievre?
Some more from the Dickson ‘exit poll”
The Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith is sitting on a primary vote of 10.9 per cent—ahead of the Greens– with her preferences expected to decide who ultimately wins the seat.
Why did the polling veer over the last month, changing course from a probable Dutton LNP win to a come from behind yet to be determined Albanese Labor win.
Everyone has an opinion.
Is there anything Dutton doesn’t hate ?
The list is extensive:-
Welcome to country, other States, Canberra, Canberra public servants, journalists, Chinese, Russians, lefties, Dan Andrews, salmon, renewables, migration, Pacific Islanders, Comcar drivers, women, Aboriginal anything, Labor’s tax deductions, Labor’s superannuation, Medicare, protesters, Greens, Teals, State Premiers, non citizens, African gangs, Palestinians and Labor politicians (to name a few)
Enough voters don’t know who Dutton will hate next!
What is obvious is that in Australia, the lucky country, a talentless, aspirational nobody with the support of the talentless leftover Parliamentary Liberal Pop party can remain so competitive in an election during a time of great technological change is a distinct possibility.
Therefore it’s no wonder that “everyman and his dog” wants to be in Australia whether they arrive by boat or plane, have visas or not, overstay visas, study at some dodgy institutions or just want a job and a roof over their head apply to become part of the “enigma” that is Australia.
It all would be enough to make an Australian “get pissed” and lie down on a footpath somewhere!
William sets the cat amongst the pigeons by suggesting 80% of preferences gets Dutton in front off 7.9% for Pauline and 3.5% for Clive
It’ll be interesting to see what actually happens, Clive will be lucky to break 2% imo although Pauline might get closer to double figures
It explains why Dutton has been willing to play the culture wars. 80% still seems ambitious given it’s usually 65% from memory. Has Dutton’s disgraceful embrace of Pauline emboldened her supporters and won their preferences?
On the flipside, Greens preferences have always been around 85% but there’s never been an opposition leader promising to go nuclear and stop the renewables rollout
Could the Greens preference flow this time increase to 90% to offset any increase from Pauline and Clive?
Labor should be extremely grateful if it does imo
Interesting to see DemosAU potentially has another poll coming, it would nice to switch out the one that has the Greens on 12. Hopefully that happens
#25in25
Note. Personally I’m not anti-nuclear IF it was used instead of gas for the last 10% and the renewables roll out continues at pace. Accepting it will take time and money but is emissions free
p.s. congratulations on the well deserved shoutout from Laura
First 100 days.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/01/mike-waltz-trump-national-security-adviser/
One nation or Palmer political party , always get overestimated at federal elections, in the recent 4 federal elections
Pauline Hanson or Clive Palmer , are touted as king makers
And turn out to be fizzers as one nation and Palmer party perform poorly
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump-appointed judge says president’s use of Alien Enemies Act is unlawful in first-of-its-kind ruling: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/01/politics/alien-enemies-act-trump-rodriguez-ruling
Trump Town Hall Bursts Into Laughter When He Says He Hasn’t Made Any Mistakes: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-town-hall-audience-bursts-into-laughter-when-he-says-he-hasnt-made-any-mistakes/
RFK Jr.’s Bats**t New Conspiracy About ‘Fetus Debris’ in Jabs Exposed: https://www.thedailybeast.com/rfk-jr-launches-batst-new-conspiracy-about-fetus-debris-in-jabs/
Mike Waltz to leave Donald Trump’s White House following Signal group chat controversy: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-02/mike-waltz-donald-trump-signal-group-chat/105241876
Trump’s Open Corruption Hits Next Level With $2 Billion Crypto Scheme: https://newrepublic.com/post/194722/trump-corruption-2-billion-crypto-deal-uae
As health program stalls and certifications stop, some critically ill 9/11 responders are left without care: https://abcnews.go.com/US/critically-ill-911-responders-turned-program-meant-save/story?id=121338021
Trump says any country that buys oil from Iran will not be allowed to do business with U.S.: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/trump-iran-oil-sanctions.html
EU will not recognize Crimea as part of Russia, Kallas says: https://kyivindependent.com/eu-will-not-recognize-crimea-as-part-of-russia-kallas-says/
Trump reportedly shifts tone on Putin after UK, France apply diplomatic pressure: https://kyivindependent.com/trump-reportedly-shifts-tone-on-putin-after-uk-france-diplomatic-pressure/
Russia ignores the ceasefire proposal, attacking Ukraine with 170 drones: https://unn.ua/en/news/russia-ignores-the-ceasefire-proposal-attacking-ukraine-with-170-drones-zelenskyy
Ukrainian soldiers who film their kills of Russian soldiers or tanks can earn points to purchase weapons from a military tech ‘Amazon’: https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainians-film-kills-earn-points-buy-tech-from-military-amazon-2025-5
Duttons final own goal was in his costings yesterday. Cut cut cut to climate change initiatives which the Greens and Teal candidates will love in Bradfeild Wannon and several other seats like Sturt and Dickson. What a chit show campaign he coughed up. Despite that western Sydney and outer Victoria remain a concern for Labor. Exit polling in tas suggests no change in Tas I hear..but they were wrong in 2022 .
“On the flipside, Greens preferences have always been around 85% but there’s never been an opposition leader promising to go nuclear and stop the renewables rollout
Could the Greens preference flow this time increase to 90% to offset any increase from Pauline and Clive?
Labor should be extremely grateful if it does imo”
Labor should be extremely grateful to whom exactly? Labor should be “extremely grateful” to all voters who vote for them directly or indirectly above the next preferred candidate in the majority of seats – as, deliciously, the betting markets increasingly have as an odds on prospect.
Labor owes nothing but disdain to the Greens political party and some of its narcissistic fellow travellers running around campaigning against Labor and spewing same same and duopoly clap trap into the polity. At a crucial election as you have identified this as being for energy transition, these people are effectively increasing the chance of Dutton getting his way and using a nuclear mirage as cover to stunt the transition to renewables.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-last-minute-pivot-on-welcome-to-country-reveals-his-one-nation-problem-20250501-p5lvli.html
USA and Ukraine signed a major minerals deal any chance of that making the news on here?
Penny Wong busy recently along with Albo wining and dining their China besties.
Stand corrected below and I do like the updates on here.
pied piper – I posted the minerals deal yesterday
The problem with Dutt’s reliance on One Nation preferences is that ON are not evenly spread; their primary vote may be bigger in some electorates he needs, but in other outer W suburbs that are actually very multicultural, they will scare the horses and help boost votes to the ALP/Independent side of the ledger.
It’s a desperate strategy – he abandoned using the last week of the campaign to talk policy and instead went for a culture war over Welcome To Country. In my local Teal electorate that narrowly voted yes to The Voice this will have just sealed the fate of the Lib in a hard-fought effort to regain a blue-ribbon seat.
The Sydney Morning Herald editorial provides a grudging endorsement for Labor.
Ultimately, the Herald believes Dutton has not done enough to tell us who he is, what he believes in and what sort of leader he would be. We are not convinced he is ready to be prime minister, and do not believe the Coalition is fit to return to office after just three years in opposition.
While the Herald believes Albanese and Labor are the best option to form government, we do so with qualifications. The government has been competent but lacked ideas, reforming zeal and at times dithered in the crouch position as the world crashes around us.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-should-not-be-our-prime-minister-but-the-albanese-government-needs-to-be-so-much-better-20250419-p5lsvn.html
“pied pipersays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 6:21 am
Penny Wong has backflipped on Voice.
Too late damage is done she will be nervous on sat night.Not as if one nations vote was not surging anyway but Wong may of turbo charged it.Given the recent libs/one nation preferencing deal even more damaging.”
Indicative of how out of touch the tories are that you / they think this will have a material impact on the election.
These cultural wars are going to condemn the Libs to the wilderness for a long time. The Voice defeat is going to delude the nutter right at sky news
Rather than being ‘sacked’ by Donald Trump, Mike Waltz has in fact been promoted…
Truth Social platform:
I am pleased to announce that I will be nominating Mike Waltz to be the next United States Ambassador to the United Nations. From his time in uniform on the battlefield, in Congress and, as my National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz has worked hard to put our Nation’s Interests first. I know he will do the same in his new role. In the interim, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will serve as National Security Advisor, while continuing his strong leadership at the State Department. Together, we will continue to fight tirelessly to Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
As for Marco Rubio, the last Secretary of State to also serve concurrently as National Security Advisor was Henry Kissinger.
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk
Next Liberal Leader (after Dutton) betting:
Angus Taylor $1.83
Dan Tehan $6.00
Sussan Ley $6.00
Andrew Hastie $9.50
David Coleman $12.00
Michael Sukkar $15.00
Melissa McIntosh $34.00
Ted O’Brien $34.00
Angie Bell $36.00
Peter Dutton is confident of winning at least 10 seats from Labor on Saturday night but would need a miracle to beat Anthony Albanese, according to Coalition strategists relying on tracking polling in key electorates and strong pre-poll support for the Liberals and Nationals.
The Australian can reveal that despite the Liberals and Nationals falling behind the ALP in national polls, Coalition campaign headquarters believes it can win as many as 10 seats from Labor, three seats from teal independents and one from the Greens.
After seat polling in January indicated Mr Dutton was on track for a historic victory over the first-term Albanese government, the Coalition’s position has deteriorated on the back of Labor scare campaigns and a boost for the Prime Minister after Donald Trump’s tariffs blitz.
As of Wednesday night, senior Liberal strategists believed the Coalition was most likely to pick up 10 seats. Based on the most optimistic and best-case scenario, which opposition figures concede won’t happen, there is a pathway that could give the Coalition 22 seats.
Despite many battleground contests being considered line ball, the Coalition is hopeful of winning a rump of ALP seats including Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and the newly established Western Australia seat of Bullwinkel, which is notionally held by Labor.
As Mr Albanese jetted into WA on Thursday to campaign in the Perth seat of Tangney, Mr Dutton declared there would be “surprises” on Saturday. “We’ve got some amazing candidates who are going to win seats that aren’t even on the radar at the moment. In NSW, in Victoria. I think there are surprises in WA and I think there’s a potential surprise in Queensland as well. And there’s an enormous amount of work that’s been going on at a micro level,” Mr Dutton said.
The Australian understands the Coalition believes it will definitely gain eight seats, likely win 10 seats and potentially pick up 12. If the Coalition can win back 10 seats, Labor would fall into a minority government with around 72 or 73 seats.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2025-peter-dutton-banking-on-surprises-in-key-seats/news-story/dc618ad38c7a34f95716f984d79ab3b5?amp
The SmearStralian still pumping up Dutton’s tyres..
EXCLUSIVE4 minutes ago
Coalition HQ confident Dutton can win at least 10 seats from Labor
Coalition strategists believe Peter Dutton can win as many as 10 seats from Labor, three from teal independents and one from the Greens – but admit he needs a miracle to beat Anthony Albanese.
GEOFF CHAMBERS and DENNIS SHANAHAN
sprocket_ @ #29 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 7:20 am
He’s got to get through the senate confirmation first. A chance for Dems to grill him over Signalgate.
Well, I just hope the maximal model does not eventuate. To have Dutton get across the line via Pauline Hanson would be a true nightmare.
lol the minerals deal… I thought it was kind of the Ukranians to give il douche a paper victory, he so desperately needed one.
Thanks William.
Interesting to see The Guardian ‘poll tracker’ by Mansillo which is based on Simon Jackman’s method (NB:-Mark the Ballot also uses a variant) is in closer alignment on the 2pp despite a lower Labor primary. This outcome is presumably due to stronger preference flows to Labor. Will this be the case? Or will the Coalition receive the benefit of higher preference flows? There is talk that this may be the case. Thank you as well for providing alternate modelling of Bludgertrack to account for this.
“Labor should be extremely grateful if it does imo”
@Hard Being Green
Was Adam Bandt extremely grateful to the Liberals that he entered parliament the back off their preferences in 2010? This despite the fact his Labor opponent had a bigger primary vote then him.
Greens game is to cannibalise the Labor vote. Nothing more. If the Greens didn’t exist the overwhelming majority of those votes would be going to Labor’s primary. There is nothing to be grateful for, and if Labor wins it will be in spite of the Greens not because of it.
Fess
Mike Waltz is still using Signal – this shot of him checking Signal at yesterday’s Cabinet meeting. Maybe this flagrant disregard for security protocols won’t matter so much at the UN..
JD Vance is in the chat screen…
Morning all. Thanks William yet again for another clear analysis of the polling and biases.
Some polling (YouGov) would suggest I should revise my seat prediction up for Labor now. I won’t do so, but am very confident Albo will remain PM after Saturday. I rate Labor retaining majority government, not just minority, as the likely outcome.
“Dutton says he’s hopeful of a 2019 result (when Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison achieved what he called a “miracle win” …”
He’s not the Messiah.
He’s a very nasty boy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/02/australia-election-2025-live-last-day-campaign-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-labor-coalition-poll-voting-ntwnfb
I’ve been reluctant to update my prediction, but I’m going to have a go. It’s a bit better for Labor than the one I provided to Lars when they were still posting on here. And that’s because there’s clearly been a swing away from the Coalition since Xmas, and – preference deals with One Nation notwithstanding – it seems to me inevitable that some of that swing will end up with Labor candidates.
So here goes:
Labor 73
Coalition 60
Greens 3 (Melbourne, Griffith and – more of a dark horse – Wills)
Others 14 (including all the Teals, Wilkie, Sharkie and Dai Le holding their seats, plus a couple more independent/minor party victories, starting with Bradfield)
It’s an extremely tentative prediction and, when I start looking at individual seats, I can see a lot of potentially close races which will depend on preference flows that are impossible to predict.
I’m foreseeing a very unhappy night for Dutton and the Coalition, but a lot of uncertainty for Labor as to where things are ultimately going to end up. It’s quite conceivable that Labor will end up winning more than 75 seats, but I doubt very much that we’ll have any clear picture of that when the counting stops for the night.
Bit of a hypothetical ,
if the lib/nats propaganda media unit exit poll is close to being accurate in the seat of Dickson ,
These scenarios could happen
Dutton loses his seat before , he concedes defeat (as temporary Leader of the opposition)for the federal lib/nats
Dutton concedes his seat and the federal election at the same time
As usual I’m going to ignore all polls and vibes and assume that we’re headed for an historic coalition collapse – Mostly Interested if you could enter me in the spreadsheet for
ALP 95
LNP 36
GRN 4
OTH 15
That would be most appreciated.
Scott says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 7:49 am
Bit of a hypothetical ,
if the lib/nats propaganda media unit exit poll is close to being accurate in the seat of Dickson ,
These scenarios could happen
Dutton loses his seat before , he concedes defeat (as temporary Leader of the opposition)for the federal lib/nats
Dutton concedes his seat and the federal election at the same time
______________
Will Dutton or Albanese speak first on Saturday? That is a fun question to ponder 🙂
Waltz wouldn’t pass the Senate confirmation for the UN job. This will allow the moderate Republicans to claim they stood up to Trump. That is if Waltz does even bother with going through with it too. He is likely to pull out before the confirmation hearings.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 7:28 am
“Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk
Next Liberal Leader (after Dutton) betting:
Angus Taylor $1.83
Dan Tehan $6.00
Sussan Ley $6.00
Andrew Hastie $9.50
David Coleman $12.00
Michael Sukkar $15.00
Melissa McIntosh $34.00
Ted O’Brien $34.00
Angie Bell $36.00”
What a sorry bunch to choose from.
#weatheronPB
The air is so clean,
I could hold on forever,
never breathing out.
Good Morning! Here’s Your Final Day of the Election Campaign News and Views Roundup.
Where the election will be won and lost — or maybe left hanging. Let’s cut through the bluff and the bluster and take a look at the true shape of our electoral landscape — and what that might mean for the results on Saturday night.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-02/election-paths-to-victory/105226740
Jenny Hocking A campaign with only one contender. Not since the conservative nostalgia of diminutive liberal Prime Minister Billy McMahon, whose timidity, wooden delivery and stolid conservatism was no match for the hope, energy, and optimism of Labor leader Gough Whitlam, has a Liberal election campaign been so poorly developed, so ineptly presented, and so badly run.
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/could-two-election-campaigns-be-any-different/
Key markers on the bumpy road to this federal election. By Michelle Grattan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-02/key-markers-on-the-bumpy-road-to-this-election/105241688
SMH Editorial
Dutton should not be our prime minister. But the Albanese government needs to be so much better
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-should-not-be-our-prime-minister-but-the-albanese-government-needs-to-be-so-much-better-20250419-p5lsvn.html
Dutton resorts to red meat, but the Liberal base won’t decide this election. By David Crowe
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-resorts-to-red-meat-but-the-liberal-base-won-t-decide-this-election-20250501-p5lvsw.html
9Fax spoke to Australians at the start and end of the campaign. Here’s what changed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-spoke-to-australians-at-the-start-and-end-of-the-campaign-here-s-what-changed-20250429-p5lv2w.html
Gen Z men are meant to be conservative, so why aren’t the polls picking that up?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gen-z-men-are-meant-to-be-conservative-so-why-aren-t-the-polls-picking-that-up-20250415-p5lrv8.html
Coalition election promise costings reveal worse budget bottom line for two years compared to Labor’s
By political reporter Tom Crowley
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/election-2025-coalition-costings-labor-curriculum-dutton/105237656
The Coalition’s costings show some savings, but a larger deficit than Labor in the first two years
By Stephen Bartos
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/05/01/election-coalition-costings
Coalition voter ‘bribes’ send Taylor ‘off brand’ with bigger deficits, say budget experts
By chief digital political correspondent Jacob Greber
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-02/economists-criticise-coalition-budget-federal-election-2025/105241356
Budget to get worse before it gets better, and with higher taxes, under Dutton plan Shane Wright
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-budget-to-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-under-dutton-plan-20250501-p5lvkx.html
Albanese ‘nervous’, more public service cut confusion in final campaign blitz
By Brett Worthington
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/election-2025-coalition-costings-labor-curriculum-dutton/105237656
Leaders eye election finish line in final-day sprint.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/05/02/federal-election-final-day
Young people will decide the next PM – and the winner is already clear.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/young-people-will-decide-the-next-pm-and-the-winner-is-already-clear-20250501-p5lvmc.html
Why Albanese is leading Dutton in ‘podcaster election’ stakes.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/why-albanese-is-leading-dutton-in-podcaster-election-stakes-20250430-p5lvh3.html
Threats, ‘skulduggery’ and neo-Nazis prompt AEC warning about voting booths
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/threats-skulduggery-and-neo-nazis-prompt-aec-warning-about-voting-booths-20250501-p5lvl0.html
‘Private intel’: Inside the far-right group disrupting the election.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/private-intel-inside-the-far-right-group-disrupting-the-election-20250424-p5lty3.html
Marcus Reubenstein. Nine’s feeble bid for a China poll beat-up fails miserably.
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/nines-feeble-bid-for-a-china-poll-beat-up-fails-miserably-anti-china-media-watch/
Leaders target key SA seats in final days of federal election campaign.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/federal-election-2025-leaders-target-key-sa-seats/105239468
Could Dutton lose his seat? A mini deep-dive. By Tom Crowley
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/federal-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton/105236532#live-blog-post-175099
‘It’s not about the campaign’: Dutton hunkers down for campaign blitz.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-about-the-campaign-dutton-bunkers-down-for-campaign-blitz-20250501-p5lvri.html
How major parties want you to number the ballot in your electorate.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/how-to-vote-cards-in-your-electorates/105217758
All the ACT seats, candidates and voting facts you need to know this federal election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-02/act-federal-election-2025-voting-day-candidates-explained/105240064
An ‘archaic’ law has been removing Australians with disability from the electoral roll ‘in droves’, advocates say.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-14/disability-voting-laws/101059872
Voters unsure of major parties on NSW’s Central Coast.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/federal-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton/105236532#live-blog-post-175099
Australians once feared the health impacts of nuclear. Now nobody’s talking about it.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australians-once-feared-the-health-impacts-of-nuclear-now-nobody-s-talking-about-it-20250324-p5lm2k.html
Greg Barns If I were attorney-general…
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/if-i-were-attorney-general/
Peta Credlin’s latest tirade isn’t journalism, it’s political projection. By Ben Peterson
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/peta-credlins-latest-tirade-isnt-journalism-its-political-projection,19691
Weaponising fear is an age-old tradition for the Liberal Party
By Ben Laycock
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/weaponising-fear-is-an-age-old-tradition-for-the-liberal-party,19686
‘A 100 per cent turnout’: Leaks reveal Brethren secrecy push, bid to ramp up poll presence
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-100-per-cent-turnout-leaks-reveal-brethren-secrecy-push-bid-to-ramp-up-poll-presence-20250501-p5lvpg.html
Former US vice president Kamala Harris has used her first major speech since leaving office to warn that Donald Trump is not unleashing “chaos” on America but helping orchestrate a “high-velocity event” to enact a decades-old right-wing policy agenda.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fight-back-harder-harris-tells-democrats-after-trump-hits-100-days-20250501-p5lvs5.html
Trump sacks Signal chat creator Mike Waltz in first firing of second term.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-sacks-signal-chat-creator-mike-waltz-in-first-firing-of-second-term-20250502-p5lvxg.html
Waltz was in danger before Signalgate. Beyond Waltz, there may be ‘a purge’ of lower level White House staffers. Chaos reigns
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/01/waltz-ouster-backstory-00322187
Melvin A. Goodman. Marco Rubio and the death of diplomacy
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/marco-rubio-and-the-death-of-diplomacy/
‘Pierre Barely Showed Up’: How Canada’s Conservative Leader Lost His Seat in Parliament
Bruce Fanjoy opens up about his upset victory against Pierre Poilievre.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/05/01/canada-election-poilievre-defeat-qa-00321245
Something may be shifting in Singapore – and this election will be spicy
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/the-result-may-be-a-sure-thing-but-singapore-s-election-will-still-be-a-spicy-one-20250501-p5lvq3.html
Dutton’s last-minute pivot on Welcome to Country reveals his One Nation problem. Waleed Aly
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-last-minute-pivot-on-welcome-to-country-reveals-his-one-nation-problem-20250501-p5lvli.html
Welcome to Country is not an election issue, so why are we talking about it? I think I know
Brooke Boney
https://www.smh.com.au/national/welcome-to-country-is-not-an-election-issue-so-why-are-we-talking-about-it-i-think-i-know-20250430-p5lvhj.html
The rise of right-wing Christian populism and its powerful impact on Australian politics.
https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-right-wing-christian-populism-and-its-powerful-impact-on-australian-politics-255392
The ultra conservatives wanting to make the Vatican great again. With Trump back in the White House, the alt right are attempting a hostile takeover of the group deciding on the next pope.
https://www.politico.eu/article/vaticans-church-catholic-pope-francis-hard-right/
Cartoon Time!
Simon Letch
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Andrew Dyson
Fiona Katauskas What message is Clive Palmer trying to send?
David Squires on … picking a team in the Australian election grand final
Ben Jennings on the opposition to net zero
From the Internet!
“Totally not photoshopped” 😉
Enjoy!