The Australian reports the concluding Newspoll for the campaign has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, out from 52-48 a week ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese is on 42% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), while Peter Dutton is on 32% (down three) and 60% (up one) and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1270.
YouGov has weighed in with its final national poll, conducted last Thursday through to yesterday, which is distinctive even by the standards of recent polling in the weakness of the major party vote: Labor is on 31.1%, down from 33.5% in last week’s regular YouGov poll, with the Coalition on 31.4%, up from 31.0%. The Greens are up from 14.0% to 14.6% and One Nation is down from 10.5% to 8.5%, with independent up from 5.0% to 6.7%, Trumpet of Patriots up from 2.0% to 2.5% and other up from 4.0% to 5.2%. Presumably incorporating data from the latest MRP poll, the preference allocations have been tweaked: Labor’s share from One Nation is down from 33% to 31% (and from 35.7% at the 2022 election), but its independent share is up from 59% to 65% (63.8% in 2022). This pans out to 52.2-47.8 to Labor, in from 53.5-47.8 last week. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Peter Dutton is down three to 33% and up three to 57%; and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 50-35 to 51-34. The poll was conducted last Thursday to yesterday from a sample of 3003.
Also out today was a poll was a poll from DemosAU showing Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 33%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 9%. Labor was credited with a two-party lead of 52-48 – whereas in the past this pollster had been using preference flows from the 2022 election, this time the Coalition was credited with the 73% of One Nation preferences they received at the Queensland election last October, which would reduce Labor’s two-party by about 0.7%. The poll had a bumper sample of 4100, lending credibility to state breakdowns recording 50-50 in New South Wales (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%), 53-47 to Labor in Victoria (a Coalition swing of about 2%), 54-46 to the Coalition in Queensland (no swing) and 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia (a Labor swing of about 1%). The poll was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday.
The print editions of the News Corp papers have a final wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research tracking poll of 20 marginal seats, in which Labor’s blowout 54.5-45.5 lead over the previous two weeks has moderated to 53-47, implying a swing to Labor of 2%. The accompanying report is light on for detail – nothing on primary votes, field work dates or sample size – but there is likely to be more from a forthcoming online report.
Roy Morgan has a poll with Labor leading 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, unchanged on the poll released on Monday, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34.5% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (down one). The two-party result based on 2022 preference flows is 54-46, likewise unchanged. The poll was conducted from Monday through to today from a sample of 1368.
That just leaves the only poll that matters – and BludgerTrack, which ends with Labor’s lead at a new peak of 53.2-47.8, exactly equal to Bob Hawke’s winning margin in 1983. I must stress that this is not at all what I expect to happen, and I will be happy to admit I was wrong if I am proved right, so to speak. The caveats were laid out in yesterday’s post: as well as a tendency of polling over recent years to overstate Labor’s primary vote, BludgerTrack’s application of preference flows from the last election almost undoubtedly flatters Labor, and I will probably come up with something different when I crank the machine up again next term. While I do not believe the more extravagant talk of One Nation flows to the Coalition matching those of the Greens to Labor, I do think YouGov, Newspoll and DemosAU have likely been judicious in bumping up the Coalition’s share from 64.3% to upwards of 70%, and that Labor’s 85.7% share of Greens preferences from 2022 is unlikely to be matched. That should be enough to knock a point off what BludgerTrack is crediting Labor with, which would make tomorrow night all about whether or not Labor can make it to a majority.
Late mail from party sources related via media reports:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reported yesterday that Labor internal polling showed them leading in the Coalition-held seats of Sturt and Bonner, respectively by 53.5-46.5 and 51.5-48.5, and tied in Bass. In rather sharp contrast to talk coming from the Liberal camp, the polling shows Labor holding Whitlam by 56-44 and Gorton by 55-45. Labor is said to lead the Greens by 54.5-45.5 in Wills, where party sources say the Greens are withdrawing resources to focus on their seats in Brisbane. Maiden quotes a Liberal source saying Labor’s expectation of a final seat tally somewhere between 72 and 78 is “credible”.
• A different story emerges from the Liberal sources of The Australian, whose theory of victory involves winning Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and Bullwinkel from Labor, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong from independents and Ryan from the Greens, pushing its seat count into the seventies and giving it the whip hand in cross-bench negotiations over Labor, who would be reduced to 67. The sources invoked went so far as to rate eight gains as definite and ten as likely. Concerns were nonetheless acknowledged about Bradfield and, unusually for such a bullish assessment, Bass and Braddon were “considered too close to call but the Coalition is confident of retaining them” (a bit of cognitive dissonance that might be thought to colour the rest of the assessment). Labor was “also facing neck-and-neck races in Bennelong, Robertson and Lyons”, though why they would be excluded from the list of seats about which the Coalition was “hopeful” if this were so is unclear. Then there is Lingiari, ̶which is considered tough to poll”, and presumably for that reason alone is rated “too close to call”.
Confessions @ #382 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 8:06 am
I stand by my prediction that he and Navaro will be the 2 most likely of the MAGAts to be jailed for their part in Trump’s crimes against humanity. No one will shed a tear when Rat Fucker Kennedy is crucified.
I have returned to comments after a week away. I kept to my plan to only read Williams comments and let everything else go through to the keeper.
I didn’t miss the noise of it at all.
What I found was Williams quiet, professional, rational and easy to read commentary. It was a calm in the electoral storm which I really appreciated.. I think even my blood pressure moderated.
So thank you William.
To all, today, I leave only this hope
” that government of the People, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”
Long live Democracy.
@Outsider
“However, we have yet to see what those independents would do in a tight hung Parliament. I don’t think there’s any chance of it being an issue in 2025, but maybe in 2028, we may see those independents being forced to choose sides – and I suspect most would support the Lib-Nats reflecting the mood of their voters – Rebecca Sharkie has said as much in Mayo, in the past, ignoring the fact that in 2022 Labor actually “won” the 2PP in her seat.”
…………….
And if thats what eventuates in the coming years then fine…
Because..
Can you imagine how disfunctional a hard right wing nut job LNP coalition party would be when they have to rely on, and appease, a massive group of teal independents who would drag them kicking and screaming back towards the centre and never support any of their BS policy positions.
Not one of their BS policies would pass through the house.
Sure.. it could be 3 years of chaos and disfunction.. it would be the final nails in the coffin of the Liberal Party in this country.. and it would be glorious to watch.
Also.. a loss today and the Liberal Nats have another 3 years in the wilderness.. in that 3 years 10’s of thousands of their traditional supporter base (elderly Australians) dies off.. and is replaced by 10’s of thousands of educated young voters.
It gets harder and harder to get back into government for the Lib Nats with every passing year… and, laughably, they actually believe its because they havent gone far enough to the right. The further right they go… the less votes they get and the more hearding of Teal cats they will have to do if they ever govern again.
Drove past a Boothby Polling booth on the way to work- the school was entirely wrapped Christo style in Liberal guff. The plastic wrap must have been 2m high and 200m long….
These weren’t corflute’s but continuous plastic.
This gotta be outlawed for next time.
As f****d as RFK jr is, this measles outbreak can’t really be blamed on him. The low rates of vaccination preceded him and would have allowed it to happen even if someone else was in charge. He hasn’t had time to do much damage yet. Outbreaks of measles and other diseases in future years will be a different story. I can only imagine the response to the next contagious human disease.
> Rat Fucker Kennedy
saved
Does anyone have an idea as to whether pollsters factor in what would normally be people voting for ALP who are strategically voting for others in teal seats?
If not factored in would this be significant in pollsters measurement of nationwide ALP primary vote
I don’t like to wish ill on anyone as i think hate poisons
ones own spirit ,
but if a plane carrying Clive , Gina and Rupert was to crash
into Mara Lago while Trump was having a gathering of his
mates , the world would be a better place …
“pattern against usersays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 8:33 am
@Outsider
“However, we have yet to see what those independents would do in a tight hung Parliament. I don’t think there’s any chance of it being an issue in 2025, but maybe in 2028, we may see those independents being forced to choose sides – and I suspect most would support the Lib-Nats reflecting the mood of their voters – Rebecca Sharkie has said as much in Mayo, in the past, ignoring the fact that in 2022 Labor actually “won” the 2PP in her seat.”
…………….
And if thats what eventuates in the coming years then fine…
Because..
Can you imagine how disfunctional a hard right wing nut job LNP coalition party would be when they have to rely on, and appease, a massive group of teal independents who would drag them kicking and screaming back towards the centre and never support any of their BS policy positions.
Not one of their BS policies would pass through the house.
Sure.. it could be 3 years of chaos and disfunction.. it would be the final nails in the coffin of the Liberal Party in this country.. and it would be glorious to watch.
Also.. a loss today and the Liberal Nats have another 3 years in the wilderness.. in that 3 years 10’s of thousands of their traditional supporter base (elderly Australians) dies off.. and is replaced by 10’s of thousands of educated young voters.
It gets harder and harder to get back into government for the Lib Nats with every passing year… and, laughably, they actually believe its because they havent gone far enough to the right. The further right they go… the less votes they get and the more hearding of Teal cats they will have to do if they ever govern again.”
Exactly right.
This more than anything is why we should be hoping for a further routing of the coalition, both in terms of losing red blue marginals to Labor and as many and diverse “Teals” as possible.
The bigger the teal wall the better. The larger the Labor the red wall to push Labor out of majority government the better.
It would be extremely difficult for even a moderate competent centre right force to overcome both in one campaign let-alone these reactionaries.
Most likely, even a tabloid fuelled baseball bats election would see the coalition falling short of majority if the starting point is 15 plus Teals in traditional centre right seats.
A thorough beating today is the only outcome progressives should be hoping for
Personally, I would be very surprised if the Greens preference flow to Labor doesn’t at least match 2022. They have been putting out videos on social media explaining preferences and recommending people place Labor above the Liberals, and half of their campaign slogan is keep Dutton out.
Torchbearer
Boothby is ground zero for the feral Plymouth Brethren, who have a local presence in the electorate anyway.
Their intimidating presence at the Colonel Light Gardens prepoll booth has made the area unsafe for other volunteers and AEC staff (I can’t discuss particulars, but reports are being compiled).
Nicole Flint, if you or your staffers are reading this, you are on notice: campaign on merit and the electorate will respect you (although we might not agree with you). If you condone this feral behaviour you forfeit any right to represent this electorate.
Torchbearer (8.39am)
Yes I totally agree. Can corflutes be recycled? Given they have a plastic coating the answer might be no.
The plastic wrapping on fences should be totally banned.
The wastage is incredible.
Still if you were a printer or supplier of large bill boards you would be pretty happy.
Went for a walk a couple of years ago and the council had just trimmed back bushes against a public transport fence and there was a corflute from 25 years ago left behind from the Australian Democrats.
@ Eston Kohver
Well said!
Was this the booth that the SA Attorney General visited yesterday to observe first hand what was going on?
Disgusting behaviour from a very nasty, bigoted, racist, narrow minded (and various other descriptors) religion.
I wish the AEC or SAPOL would absolutely throw the book at these people.
Happy Democracy Day.
I hope we don’t choose violence.
Cheers
Fox News comic is great. It reflects an alternative reality that also exists here on the Disneyland of skynews. A guy I know who obviously watches a lot of it and you know what they are pushing if you engage in conversation with him. Labor and greens are the same, extreme paranoia about China, anti semitism a huge issue in other words the sky( news) is falling down!!! I know a couple of these guys and they are not in a great place health-wise . My advice to any old guy who is going down this negative rabbit hole – get out of the murdoch universe and smell the roses, your health is suffering from all of this disinformation andanxiety!!!
The Liberals are winning the battle of the posters, with huge and highly visible billboards near busy roads and key intersections, with corflutes and posters everywhere, multiplying like rabbits. I drove past Lane Cove Civic Centre yesterday, a voting place in the Bennelong electorate. People who would have been Liberal volunteers were apparently lining the main entrance walkway with Liberal banners. The aim seems to be to occupy as much space as possible.
Greens put Payman party and teals above labor in prefs.
Preference whisperer and Payman under the radar could surprise.
He has form.
Sitting next to 2 young Asian/Australian clinicians at work now….they are talking about how they voted for Hanson and how Labor has done nothing for them (they would have a hefty HECS debt for starters)….
I despair sometimes.
Zwaktyld
“ As f****d as RFK jr is, this measles outbreak can’t really be blamed on him. The low rates of vaccination preceded him and would have allowed it to happen even if someone else was in charge. He hasn’t had time to do much damage yet. Outbreaks of measles and other diseases in future years will be a different story. I can only imagine the response to the next contagious human disease.”
The US is going to be the source of the next pandemic- it is already establishing itself as the global incubator for H5N1. Through economic policies in relation to USAID and WHO funding et al, military policies in relation to the backing of global monsters, and even putting lunatics in charge of public health at home, the primary legacy of the Trump era may well be to be its direct and indirect role in the largest human die off across the planet at least in living memory.
Happy Democracy Day.
I hope we don’t choose violence.
————————
Tempted. They closed my local booth (primary school – end of an era, Downers primary school and a booth since forever) without telling me personally. The next nearest has no bacon and egg options and sausages not ready and a queue!
FMD, 7 options and 4 of them far right.
Zwaktyld @ #395 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 8:43 am
The US measles outbreak is a (lagging) marker of The Rat Fucker’s real crime – knowing, for-personal-gain marketing of Wakefield’s anti-MMR vaccine scam. This is a culpable crime against humanity & there will eventually be a Nuremberg-style reckoning with international sanctions against antivaxxers like Rat Fucker, but I doubt that many of the guilty will be jailed.
What will lead to RFKs incarceration (when the US regains it’s sanity & looks to internal reconstruction after defeating the MAGAt secession) will be his wilful destruction of the US Biomedical research golden goose. RFK will have personally destroyed the US biomedical university-government-industrial complex – the biggest economic driver of US post-WW2 scientific dominance. This will hurt the money men who will not forgive RFKJr. The Ketamine Kid is just the arsonist with the matches, RFKJr is personally directing this Reichstag fire.
Good morning everyone. Good luck to all those staffing polling stations or the count later.
It is a lovely morning here on my side of Melbourne.
I hope everything goes smoothly.
I am starting to feel much better and an ALP win at any level will certainly help.
Someone mentioned on a previous thread about making voting easier if you are travelling.
My friend from NW Tasmania has been unable to vote this time. Left too early for postal or prepoll, not going anywhere near a potential polling place until next week.
An online option would be a great idea
I watched a bit of an RFK assassination doco the other night. The wrong RFK was shot.
pied piper says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:01 am
Greens put Payman party and teals above labor in prefs.
Preference whisperer and Payman under the radar could surprise.
He has form.
————————
Will Peter Dutton be claiming victory at 6pm ?
https://apps.apple.com/au/app/orb-net/id6477840170, whether on wired Telstra’s Ugly Sister/ TPG, wireless terrestrial or satellite, interesting!
From Speedtest/ Downdetector …
UK Reform is far-right party bordering on neo-nazi tendencies. It doesn’t suddenly make it a normal right wing party because UK people voted for it.
It won because both major parties, Tories and Labour, have failed their people and people lost faith in them.
I thought British people will not tend towards fascism. But there you go. When major parties fail, far-right/ extreme far-right parties will gain power like they did in 1932 in Germany and like 2024 in USA
There is no sugar coating to it whether people like BTsays likes it and accepts it or not.
Fortunately in Australia, we had a competent, intelligent and effective ALP government in the last 3 years.
The assumption of supporters of Greens political party, Teals and Socialists that if they smash the duopoly, they will come to power is far fetched fantasy. If ALP and L-NP are smashed then far-right parties like One Nation, Family First, Libertarian, Citizens and Palmer’s party will take advantage of that situation and will come to power in future.
Dutton has given permission structure and legitimacy to PHON by swapping preferences with PHON.
There is a very good chance that in this election the Australian voters will elect 6 PHON senators, 1 from each state, based on L-NP and PHON preference swap, who will be in Senate till 1931.
The “preference whisperer” is only helpful if there’s GTV like in the old days. So I doubt anyone is still paying him for his services… With a bit of luck we never have to hear from him again (except probably in Victoria).
Bellwethersays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:15 am
I watched a bit of an RFK assassination doco the other night. The wrong RFK was shot.
++++++++++++++
Not appropriate. He was 14 years old. I suspect the assassination of father and uncle would have mentally ruined him.
Its just another day.
Will walk to the local primary school a block away around 4ish.
18 holes of golf is 1st on the agenda.
Corleone
If he’s so broken what the hell is he doing in a senior US government position?
As at COB 02/05/2025: Prepolls 6,778,467; Postals 1,685,203; Mobiles 155,286; Total 8,456,410.
Percent of roll 47.62%. Percent of expected voters as per 2022 turnout (89.82% voting) 53.02%.
A further 876,271 postal vote applications have been received, but votes not yet returned. An unknown number of those will already have otherwise voted, or not bother to vote.
A beautiful blue sky day in Brisbane this morning for the start of the Labour day (QLD & NT) long weekend.
Arangesays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 7:58 am
Confessionssays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 7:51 am
“It’s been 10 years of Trump and the rank incompetence, yet instead of seeing the light, the rightwing media in the US has grown in that time into an even bigger Trump spruiker.”
Shows why there’s 0 logic in becoming a Partisan, unless it involves taking the leadership of a party and/or forcing a party to be more moderate.
==============================================================
Labels everyone else as a partisan. Yet there is no more deluded partisan on here than Arange. His unwavering belief in what is obviously a highly flawed election predicting system. Is the height of partisan belief in a failed system.
@BBC Home Service
The coaching ethos of Ross Lyon paying dividends for both clubs.
Bellwether
If he’s so broken what the hell is he doing in a senior US government position?
+++++++++++++++++++
You were ‘hoping’ for the death of a 14 year old boy in 1968. You can’t defend that.
I agree he is not fit to be in government and he is broken and that’s why.
But we don’t promote killing innocent children.
Redbridge wave 6 results is interesting. Probably the only poll showing a slight tightening just before the election. Nearly all the others coming out these last two days show Labor increasing its lead slightly in the last week.
US Cartoons:
“Entropysays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:33 am
Redbridge wave 6 results is interesting. Probably the only poll showing a slight tightening just before the election. Nearly all the others coming out these last two days show Labor increasing its lead slightly in the last week.”
Roy Morgan also tightened…..
It could point to herding I guess
Entropysays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:28 am
‘Labels everyone else as a partisan. Yet there is no more deluded partisan on here than Arange. His unwavering belief in what is obviously a highly flawed election predicting system. Is the height of partisan belief in a failed system.”
Did you read what I posted when I was half-asleep? I said something like “the keys aren’t relevant for now.” Anyway, I’m not a blind, spiteful, irrational, fact-denying Partisan, unlike you and the Fox News hosts.
Arangesays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 2:09 am
“I was going to post an update of the keys, but I’m tired and the keys probably aren’t that relevant until trump has been in the white house for about a year or so.”
BTW, happy election day. Your Partisan mates should win a majority.
The Revisionistsays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:35 am
“Entropysays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:33 am
Redbridge wave 6 results is interesting. Probably the only poll showing a slight tightening just before the election. Nearly all the others coming out these last two days show Labor increasing its lead slightly in the last week.”
Roy Morgan also tightened…..
It could point to herding I guess
==============================================================
Roy Morgan didn’t tighten in the last week. Its last poll was the same as its second last. It tightened earlier than the last week.
I’m worried.
I wonder whether many Labor voters will strategically vote for Dyson in Wannon?
Corleone
Enough of the royal ‘we’ and telling others what they can do and how they can think.
Didn’t expect such a long line at my voting centre this morning.
Was a very friendly wait with those around me.
Light hearted happy conversations.
No angst whatsoever.
There was a young guy waiting behind me who was hobbling.
Turns out he injured himself playing footy last night.
We suggested that he go to the front of line. But he refused and said, that he will wait like everyone else and he will be fine.
Just said that he may need help to navigate some steps
Thanks William and ors for navigating this election campaign for us.
@Jen Author
Would there be any point, when Labor isn’t a real chance of polling second?
Mundo
And……..
Greetings all from sunny Tasmania 🙂
Best of luck to those handing out or scrutineering, may your dickhead counts be low
Already voted on prepoll so no democracy sausage for me, but I’ll be having a few and hopefully cheering on a record count of greens and independents tonight.
Sadly I’ll still be stuck with Kevin Hogan barring some absolute miracle, but here’s hoping Caz smashes it over the border in Cowper, I would love to be a fly on the wall at Pat’s political wake tonight…..
Good luck to all those volunteering at the booths today!
Kelta
It would help if Putin and Netanyahu were there as well