The Australian reports the concluding Newspoll for the campaign has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, out from 52-48 a week ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese is on 42% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), while Peter Dutton is on 32% (down three) and 60% (up one) and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1270.
YouGov has weighed in with its final national poll, conducted last Thursday through to yesterday, which is distinctive even by the standards of recent polling in the weakness of the major party vote: Labor is on 31.1%, down from 33.5% in last week’s regular YouGov poll, with the Coalition on 31.4%, up from 31.0%. The Greens are up from 14.0% to 14.6% and One Nation is down from 10.5% to 8.5%, with independent up from 5.0% to 6.7%, Trumpet of Patriots up from 2.0% to 2.5% and other up from 4.0% to 5.2%. Presumably incorporating data from the latest MRP poll, the preference allocations have been tweaked: Labor’s share from One Nation is down from 33% to 31% (and from 35.7% at the 2022 election), but its independent share is up from 59% to 65% (63.8% in 2022). This pans out to 52.2-47.8 to Labor, in from 53.5-47.8 last week. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Peter Dutton is down three to 33% and up three to 57%; and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 50-35 to 51-34. The poll was conducted last Thursday to yesterday from a sample of 3003.
Also out today was a poll was a poll from DemosAU showing Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 33%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 9%. Labor was credited with a two-party lead of 52-48 – whereas in the past this pollster had been using preference flows from the 2022 election, this time the Coalition was credited with the 73% of One Nation preferences they received at the Queensland election last October, which would reduce Labor’s two-party by about 0.7%. The poll had a bumper sample of 4100, lending credibility to state breakdowns recording 50-50 in New South Wales (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%), 53-47 to Labor in Victoria (a Coalition swing of about 2%), 54-46 to the Coalition in Queensland (no swing) and 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia (a Labor swing of about 1%). The poll was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday.
The print editions of the News Corp papers have a final wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research tracking poll of 20 marginal seats, in which Labor’s blowout 54.5-45.5 lead over the previous two weeks has moderated to 53-47, implying a swing to Labor of 2%. The accompanying report is light on for detail – nothing on primary votes, field work dates or sample size – but there is likely to be more from a forthcoming online report.
Roy Morgan has a poll with Labor leading 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, unchanged on the poll released on Monday, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34.5% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (down one). The two-party result based on 2022 preference flows is 54-46, likewise unchanged. The poll was conducted from Monday through to today from a sample of 1368.
That just leaves the only poll that matters – and BludgerTrack, which ends with Labor’s lead at a new peak of 53.2-47.8, exactly equal to Bob Hawke’s winning margin in 1983. I must stress that this is not at all what I expect to happen, and I will be happy to admit I was wrong if I am proved right, so to speak. The caveats were laid out in yesterday’s post: as well as a tendency of polling over recent years to overstate Labor’s primary vote, BludgerTrack’s application of preference flows from the last election almost undoubtedly flatters Labor, and I will probably come up with something different when I crank the machine up again next term. While I do not believe the more extravagant talk of One Nation flows to the Coalition matching those of the Greens to Labor, I do think YouGov, Newspoll and DemosAU have likely been judicious in bumping up the Coalition’s share from 64.3% to upwards of 70%, and that Labor’s 85.7% share of Greens preferences from 2022 is unlikely to be matched. That should be enough to knock a point off what BludgerTrack is crediting Labor with, which would make tomorrow night all about whether or not Labor can make it to a majority.
Late mail from party sources related via media reports:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reported yesterday that Labor internal polling showed them leading in the Coalition-held seats of Sturt and Bonner, respectively by 53.5-46.5 and 51.5-48.5, and tied in Bass. In rather sharp contrast to talk coming from the Liberal camp, the polling shows Labor holding Whitlam by 56-44 and Gorton by 55-45. Labor is said to lead the Greens by 54.5-45.5 in Wills, where party sources say the Greens are withdrawing resources to focus on their seats in Brisbane. Maiden quotes a Liberal source saying Labor’s expectation of a final seat tally somewhere between 72 and 78 is “credible”.
• A different story emerges from the Liberal sources of The Australian, whose theory of victory involves winning Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and Bullwinkel from Labor, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong from independents and Ryan from the Greens, pushing its seat count into the seventies and giving it the whip hand in cross-bench negotiations over Labor, who would be reduced to 67. The sources invoked went so far as to rate eight gains as definite and ten as likely. Concerns were nonetheless acknowledged about Bradfield and, unusually for such a bullish assessment, Bass and Braddon were “considered too close to call but the Coalition is confident of retaining them” (a bit of cognitive dissonance that might be thought to colour the rest of the assessment). Labor was “also facing neck-and-neck races in Bennelong, Robertson and Lyons”, though why they would be excluded from the list of seats about which the Coalition was “hopeful” if this were so is unclear. Then there is Lingiari, ̶which is considered tough to poll”, and presumably for that reason alone is rated “too close to call”.
I am planning on the following with my MR Pickwick Port:
If Labor Holds a marginal seat…..1 Snifter
If a seat falls from Lib to Independant or Green……1 Heathy Snifter
If a seat Falls to Labor from Greens…….2 Snifters
If A seat Falls from Lib To Labor…… Down the full Port glass
If Dutton Looses Seat……Full Glass
If Sturt Falls…..Full Glass
When Anthony calls the Election for Labor…..Open The Grant Burge Meshach Magnum
When Labor move into Majority Territory…..I dont know, I’m already plastered
Everyone was ready to point out Albanese’s faults as a campaigner in the last general election. This election it is different. It is not that Albanese and his team have run a brilliant campaign. It is that Dutton has run a bad campaign.
The golden rule for the Anti-Labor Slaggers never to say anything positive about Albanese.
The fact is that Albanese and Labor learned from the last election and that Dutton and the Liberals learned nothing from the last election.
In other words, Albanese is ahead because he has improved (tick) and because Dutton went backwards in his campaigning (cross).
Griff @ #546 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 12:01 pm
You’re a party supporter but don’t understand factions? Hmmmm …. 🙂
Player One says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:51 am
Sour grapes from a Labor-phobic escapist.
Diogenessays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:31 am
BW
No kudos whatsoever for Albanese conducting an almost flawless campaign?
He campaigned very well, showed discipline and grit but it’s about how you govern. The announcements dont point to fixing up the structural problems in Australia.
This term will lock in our renewable energy future but there wasnt a lot of long term planning
=================================================================
If you are right and he locks in our renewable energy future the people will erect statues of him in the future:-)
Player One @ #547 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 12:01 pm
Not a problem,next time he will be up against a well done Angus.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:56 am
Your reference to delayed gratification brings to mind Walter Mischel’s classic experiment, the marshmallow test. Mind you, it is one of many psychology experiments that suffers from a replication issue. It appears that socioeconomic factors contribute to the ability to delay gratification.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6050075/
In short, we need to lift up Australians in order for the population to be willing to delay gratification.
Player One says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:51 am
Mostly Interested @ #496 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 11:01 am
The fact is Labor ran a good government in this past term and will run a good government in this next term.
Sadly, “good” government does not seem to be the same as “effective” or “useful” government. Most bipartisans seem to think a “good” government is anything that keeps their particular faction in office. Any achievements over and above that are just a lucky bonus, and are (more often than not) completely accidental.
中华人民共和国
Don’t forget folks this is the same Player One who said we should be sending Chinese made Solar Panels to help keep Ukraines’ lights on – instead of the coal that they had requested. It was desperately needed at the time to stop them from freezing and keep the Russian trogs from kiling Ukranian Women and Children.
You have the integrity of a perfidious MAGA supporter who believes the world is flat and Australia is a made up country.
While I didn’t give a prediction of seats, I will give my ‘wishcast’.
One Nation will not perform as well as the polls predict.
Labor will be returned with a similar margin, perhaps a seat or two more.
The Greens will lose a seat or two – they’ve reached their high water mark and the teals being “greener” versions of the Libs actually detract from the Greens as well as the Libs (being safe conservatives).
The teals will get another seat or two at the expense of the Libs.
Dutton will lose his seat (or get so close to losing it that his leadership is terminal).
What I’d REALLY like to see tonight:
Dutton loses seat. Sukkar loses seat. The teal wave continues but slows. Labor retain all seats and add Griffith (cannot stand Blather-Annoyance), Sturt, + 1 in Tassie.
Player Onesays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:06 pm
Griff @ #546 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 12:01 pm
Bipartisan yet their particular faction? What a pretzel
You’re a party supporter but don’t understand factions? Hmmmm ….
======================================================================
P1 is campaigning to the end for the party whose name he dares not speak.
Time for the triennially playing of sunscreen…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTJ7AzBIJoI
Diogenessays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:31 am
BW
No kudos whatsoever for Albanese conducting an almost flawless campaign?
He campaigned very well, showed discipline and grit but it’s about how you govern. The announcements dont point to fixing up the structural problems in Australia.
This term will lock in our renewable energy future but there wasnt a lot of long term planning
Waddya mean ‘not a lot’. The prospect is that Labor will win again. The renewables policies enacted – which the Reactionaries have promised to entirely destroy – will be defended, further developed and entrenched.
The strategy is very simple: keep going. Run. Run uphill if you must. Run in the dark if necessary. Run in the rain and run under the sun. Keep running. Run together. Outlast the haters that will trip you; that will shift the track; that will move the finishing line; that will poison your water.
There is Labor. There are 6 or 7 competitors who hope to destroy Labor and everything it has achieved since 1890. These competitors detest everything there is about Labor. Their long term plan is destruction. For Labor the imperative is this: Survive. Fight your opponents. Win.
That is a long term plan.
Don’t know if its been pointed out earlier but here is what’s being counted tonight via AEC Website.
For the first time (barring by-elections) they will also count about 2000 postal votes from each Division to give us a guide on how they are flowing.
“What is counted on Saturday night?
All House of Representatives and Senate votes cast near a voter’s home division on election day will be counted that night.
The majority of pre-poll votes cast for the House of Representatives (again, those cast near a voter’s home division) will also be counted on the night.
Approximately 2,000 postal votes will also be counted in most electoral divisions on election night.
This has been done previously at by-elections but is a first for this federal election. It provides a trendline for postal votes that analysts can use to assist in predicting results.
The majority of postal vote counting commences in the days following a federal election. The AEC can receive completed postal vote packs up until 13 days after election day.
House of Representatives votes are counted first. This includes a first preference count followed by a two-candidate preferred (TCP) count.
What is a two-candidate preferred count?
On election night, the AEC is legally required to conduct an indicative preference count in each House of Representatives contest. After first preference votes are allocated and counted, votes are re-sorted into two piles – these piles are for the candidates deemed by the AEC as most likely to be the final two candidates in the count.
This does not in any way discount preferences for other candidates but rather is just a mechanism to provide as early an indication of a potential result in each seat as possible. · TCP counts, and the process for resetting TCP selections, is explained in more detail on the AEC’s website.
Player One says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:06 pm
Griff @ #546 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 12:01 pm
“Bipartisan yet their particular faction? What a pretzel ”
You’re a party supporter but don’t understand factions? Hmmmm ….
________
These pretzels are making me thirsty 🙂
NB: I suppose Reason was a party in 2022. In 2025 I have opted to preference the Indigenous–Aboriginal Party of Australia first in the Senate.
The trend in the betting markets is diabolical for Coalition. No gains whatsoever except for Aston. More losses to Teals and Independents, maybe even to One Nation. More losses to Labor and if it’s just a little worse than betting markets are predicting it will be a bloodbath bath with sub 40 seats likely. Pass the popcorn.
‘themunz says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:07 pm
Diogenessays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:31 am
BW
No kudos whatsoever for Albanese conducting an almost flawless campaign?
He campaigned very well, showed discipline and grit but it’s about how you govern. The announcements dont point to fixing up the structural problems in Australia.
This term will lock in our renewable energy future but there wasnt a lot of long term planning
=================================================================
If you are right and he locks in our renewable energy future the people will erect statues of him in the future:-)’
=====================
I am around 100% certain that if Albanese had run with Diogense’s policy settings that Dutton would be prime minister on Monday.
Jimbob says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:20 pm
The trend in the betting markets is diabolical for Coalition. No gains whatsoever except for Aston. More losses to Teals and Independents, maybe even to One Nation. More losses to Labor and if it’s just a little worse than betting markets are predicting it will be a bloodbath bath with sub 40 seats likely. Pass the popcorn.
中华人民共和国
Yes I was looking at Sportsbet – Seat by Seat and not pretty for the Tories. Threw a lazy few bucks at Leichhardt and Longman just on the off chance.
I’m with you JenAuthor…
hoping for bad night for the rotting spud..
This is right on my level
https://old.reddit.com/r/friendlyjordies/comments/1kdhbp7/nice/
Bludgertrack shows a mild swing to Labor in WA. This sounds right to me. The die-hard Lib-attached will not be moved, but their numbers are falling. The rest of the people will effectively vote Labor or for an independent. Labor voters should elect Trish Cook in Bullwinkle and Tom French in Moore. Canning will be extremely close. Every last vote will be significant.
The Reactionaries are not loved, not trusted, not respected, not admired, not elected either. They very richly deserve their disfavour.
Lot more people taking htv cards than last time but many didn’t and saw young women taking the liberal card so might be an age split happening.
Carney aside, all the radical gains in politics in recent years are made by virulently anti-immigration right wingers: Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage and Hanson.
The left governments can either note this or change their immigration settings.
Scores of volunteers outside Willoughby Public (Bradfield)
Will the liberal democrats not being on the ticket cause LNP’s primary vote to increase greater than what is expected? I recall thousands of votes being lost for the LNP due to confusions with the name but haven’t seen it once in pre election discussion.
Sportsbet update – Labor are now favourites in Gilmore, that one is for my mate Leftiebrawler.
Coalition odds in a load of NSW seats are blowing out. Parramatta is a good example – the Libs have declined from 5.75 to 8.00 in 24 hours, the same thing has occurred in Reid.
The odds for the Teal lady in Bradfield look better and better, she is now favourite too.
No good news for Dutton anywhere except Werriwa, which hasn’t moved at all in terms of odds in 2 weeks.
‘Griff says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:10 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:56 am
Your reference to delayed gratification brings to mind Walter Mischel’s classic experiment, the marshmallow test. Mind you, it is one of many psychology experiments that suffers from a replication issue. It appears that socioeconomic factors contribute to the ability to delay gratification.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6050075/
In short, we need to lift up Australians in order for the population to be willing to delay gratification.’
================
Interesting. It would be interesting to replicate this with Australian voting cohorts.
No Liberals handing out HTV at our polling place in Newcastle. There usually is at least one. I recall more than one at the last state election.
Just Labor and a Green. There are 8 candidates for the HOR in this electorate. Most of the signage is Labor and Green with a smattering of Liberal.
Cakes almost all sold and sausages running low. We voted about an hour ago. At least it’s not raining for once!
Thanks to William for the excellence of his updates and commentary, thanks to Cat for her daily news summaries, welcome back to Upnorth, kudos to King OMalley for his statistical analysis, and cheers to the majority of commenters who keep the pot simmering and tasty.
I’ve been hanging around here for what must be at least 15 years, although I’m more active when elections loom. I used to have a username that invoked the vengeance of Keating – but I dropped that for various reasons.
We will be enjoying our usual election party tonight and admiring the final run of Antony Green. He will be hard to replace.
I will be keeping an eye on the updates here tonight.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:30 pm
Carney aside, all the radical gains in politics in recent years are made by virulently anti-immigration right wingers: Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage and Hanson.
The left governments can either note this or change their immigration settings.
In WA we have a very beautifully diverse community…so many people from the sub-continent, from SE Asia, from China…from all over…from Latin America and Europe, from Africa.
One of the reasons the Reactionaries are unsuccessful here is because they are none of these things. The public face of the Volunteer Reactionary is very white, loud-mouthed, blokey, ignorant, 30 years old, rich and fake. No-one of colour. No women. No workers. Politics is about normatively compliant performance for them.
I hear plenty of criticism of Labor’s first term, some justified, some involving global issues troubling governments worldwide that are not so justified. My question is, in the realm of cost of living, housing affordability, energy policy, healthcare, education and foreign affairs, are there a handful of nations that stand out as beacons of light in these areas? What is one nation that stands out as an exemplar that either Albanese or Dutton should attempt to emulate over the next three years?
Voted after 11 hoping to avoid the crowd, but much longer queue than I expected. Only Labor and Greens volunteers (Cooper). They have no chance but they’ve always been there at previous elections. This may have implications for last senate spot between Libs and ON. Maybe their organisational capacity is at the same risk of collapse as their vote.
Very patient, friendly atmosphere at booth. No aggravated between Greens and Labor.
PS. Same situation at neighbouring booth. Long queue. No Libs
Sportsbet has a closest 2 party margin electorate option.
Kooyong is favorite, closely followed by wannon . Then a bit of a gap to brisbane, gilmore and sturt.
I put a dollar on Braddon @126.00.
Once again the stench of loser ville out of Victoria today.
1 -2 hour waits to vote in inner Melbourne.
After covid which was one big fiasco by Victoria big union dominated government cannot deliver.
Penny Wong looks to of done great damage to labor with her crazy Voice comments .Timing terrible as well.
Lots of sub continent/african candidates for libs this election and state election in WA nutty ignorant leftie comments to the contrary above are racist!
Bob Carr was volunteering at Redfern Town Hall this morning.
A huge mob of Spender volunteers at Kings Cross and Darlinghurst Public School.
I had one liberal volunteer handing out htvs at my booth compared to many David Pocock volunteers and a couple for the other parties. So yeah seems they’ve just not bothered in seats they have no chance with.
Alternator. Both Pollbludger results and ABC have complex booth comparisons with 2022 election. So comparisons and approx swings appear early on once a few booths are in and especially when 2PP preferred results start after 2 or 3 hours when preferences are clearer.
Trump is banning from doing business with the US any country that buys oil from Iran.
China buys oil from Iran.
True, it does it by way of sanctions busting mainly expedited by oil transfers in or near Singapore waters. But, that is a face-saving and an open secret.
Low level US tariff negotiators have initiated contact with Chinese opposite numbers.
China has announced that this has happened and China is considering its response (at a suitably junior level of engagement).
So, nothing to do with Trump and Xi both striving mightily to save face.
I suppose that the US will do no business with China in line with Trump’s total ban.
But you never do know.
I see Sportsbet is running 1.95 on Labor and Albo’s Rabbitohs both winning this weekend.
So tempted to give that one a crack. Already got a possible 2k coming in if Labor with majority government.
Pied Piper
With your issues couldn’t you have obtained a postal vote?
Thanks William, for this blog. This has been the best Federal election campaign I have ever participated in since I have been voting since 1967 as a conscripted 21-year-old.
Looking forward to tonight’s election night counting.
Reason4 says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:04 am
@Andrew_Earlwood
From that list it’s clear that you are just another paid up member of the Anti-Labor Party.
May as well be Dutton or Gina.
In the bin you go Jimbob
*************************
FFS Are you really so blind not to see what a boon to Labor the Teals are?
Yes, I can appreciate you are doubtless a member of the anti environmentalist cult that has consumed Labor for over 50 years (so sure you are now required to hate the Greens) but just the existing Teals have turned a knife edge majority into a very comfortable one with a mountain to climb for the LNP to ever again come close to government.
Build that mountain!
(and tactical voting in otherwise safe Liberal seats is a simple and effective way of doing so)
**********
Reason,
You’re right about the damage Teals can do to the Libs, but the list JimBob posted were all Labor seats, not the Teal/Lib contests. That was AEs point.
For the Prime Minister state, NSW has an underwhelming list of Senate candidates
Jimbob says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:20 pm
It’s odd to me that in an election in which fear is a sub-text, the Liberal campaign presence creates anxiety….loud, repetitious, idiotic mouthing by their volunteers….visual overload at polling places….intrusive texting….dog whistling…
They are doing their best…probably unwittingly ….to arouse anxiety in voters. Hopefully this will cost them votes…hundreds of thousands of votes.
BTRProducer
Let it ride.
‘Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:41 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:30 pm
Carney aside, all the radical gains in politics in recent years are made by virulently anti-immigration right wingers: Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage and Hanson.
The left governments can either note this or change their immigration settings.
In WA we have a very beautifully diverse community…so many people from the sub-continent, from SE Asia, from China…from all over…from Latin America and Europe, from Africa.
One of the reasons the Reactionaries are unsuccessful here is because they are none of these things. The public face of the Volunteer Reactionary is very white, loud-mouthed, blokey, ignorant, 30 years old, rich and fake. No-one of colour. No women. No workers. Politics is about normatively compliant performance for them.’
==================
I have no idea about what happens on the wrong side of the Nullabor. But, IMO, the pattern of virulent anti-immigration leading to significant poll gains is unmistakable and is a global trend.
Left governments can note and ignore this trend but that has been a risky option for Albanese as Hanson has demonstrated in the polling.
pithicussays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 12:47 pm
Sportsbet has a closest 2 party margin electorate option.
Kooyong is favorite, closely followed by wannon . Then a bit of a gap to brisbane, gilmore and sturt.
I put a dollar on Braddon @126.00.
===================================================================
I would have Aston for that.
If you haven’t seen Sharri Markson’s “editorial”, do yourself a favour….. 15 minutes of pure satire that wouldn’t be out of place on Charlie Pickering’s The Weekly.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/sharri-markson-a-peter-dutton-prime-ministership-would-give-our-great-nation-the-fresh-start-we-deserve/news-story/a20570cf8f3fbb1a1dc372823bbaa626
I think the main, if only reason, that Labor is ahead in today’s poll is that Australians are a fair minded bunch, with the exception of the VOICE referendum, and they won’t vote out a first term federal government.
This has been the case since 1931, almost 100 years ago.
They know that what shit has gone down in the last three years, started well before Labor’s victory in 2022 and they know that it can’t be fixed in 3 years. Maybe there’s a debate for 4 or 5 year terms, not that I want that to happen, as I love my political ‘grand final’ every 3 years.
Many will say one in a hundred year records are being broken all the time, such as when Labor stole a seat off the opposition in Aston in 2023 or a one in a hundred year ‘rain bomb’ which hovered over Brisbane in 2022 causing major flooding, or when Australia won the America’s Cup for the first time in 132 years.
However the principle remains the same, no first term federal government has been defeated in almost 100 years.
lol pied piper, I watched that penny wong podcast that you’ve been desperately bleating about like a desperate loser who is heavily steeped in losership and losing and overall just being a total loser for the last few days and can I say, my god you are such a loser.
Having said that good job getting Laura Tingle to repeat the entirety of your talking points verbatim on 7:30 last night.
For those of you who are cricket inclined, or are having trouble getting your head around my Early Vote Forecast, I’ve now produced what I think is a very cool actual cricket equivalent of the current state of play in my Election Day forecast.
Using One Day International statistics from the last 10 years and LNP 2PP% from all elections since 1940, I’ve converted the forecast to what it would be like in a One Day International match (using averages, standard deviations and Z-scores for run rates and LNP 2PP% for those that are statistically minded).
See: https://socialchangemedia.net.au/blog/early-voting-adjusted-forecast-2025-federal-election
You would want to be in delayed gratification to bet on the seat with the closest outcome… next week at the earliest and then possibly an objection to the disputed returns court or whatever it is called, by the loser…