The Australian reports the concluding Newspoll for the campaign has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, out from 52-48 a week ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese is on 42% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), while Peter Dutton is on 32% (down three) and 60% (up one) and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1270.
YouGov has weighed in with its final national poll, conducted last Thursday through to yesterday, which is distinctive even by the standards of recent polling in the weakness of the major party vote: Labor is on 31.1%, down from 33.5% in last week’s regular YouGov poll, with the Coalition on 31.4%, up from 31.0%. The Greens are up from 14.0% to 14.6% and One Nation is down from 10.5% to 8.5%, with independent up from 5.0% to 6.7%, Trumpet of Patriots up from 2.0% to 2.5% and other up from 4.0% to 5.2%. Presumably incorporating data from the latest MRP poll, the preference allocations have been tweaked: Labor’s share from One Nation is down from 33% to 31% (and from 35.7% at the 2022 election), but its independent share is up from 59% to 65% (63.8% in 2022). This pans out to 52.2-47.8 to Labor, in from 53.5-47.8 last week. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Peter Dutton is down three to 33% and up three to 57%; and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 50-35 to 51-34. The poll was conducted last Thursday to yesterday from a sample of 3003.
Also out today was a poll was a poll from DemosAU showing Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 33%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 9%. Labor was credited with a two-party lead of 52-48 – whereas in the past this pollster had been using preference flows from the 2022 election, this time the Coalition was credited with the 73% of One Nation preferences they received at the Queensland election last October, which would reduce Labor’s two-party by about 0.7%. The poll had a bumper sample of 4100, lending credibility to state breakdowns recording 50-50 in New South Wales (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%), 53-47 to Labor in Victoria (a Coalition swing of about 2%), 54-46 to the Coalition in Queensland (no swing) and 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia (a Labor swing of about 1%). The poll was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday.
The print editions of the News Corp papers have a final wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research tracking poll of 20 marginal seats, in which Labor’s blowout 54.5-45.5 lead over the previous two weeks has moderated to 53-47, implying a swing to Labor of 2%. The accompanying report is light on for detail – nothing on primary votes, field work dates or sample size – but there is likely to be more from a forthcoming online report.
Roy Morgan has a poll with Labor leading 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, unchanged on the poll released on Monday, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34.5% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (down one). The two-party result based on 2022 preference flows is 54-46, likewise unchanged. The poll was conducted from Monday through to today from a sample of 1368.
That just leaves the only poll that matters – and BludgerTrack, which ends with Labor’s lead at a new peak of 53.2-47.8, exactly equal to Bob Hawke’s winning margin in 1983. I must stress that this is not at all what I expect to happen, and I will be happy to admit I was wrong if I am proved right, so to speak. The caveats were laid out in yesterday’s post: as well as a tendency of polling over recent years to overstate Labor’s primary vote, BludgerTrack’s application of preference flows from the last election almost undoubtedly flatters Labor, and I will probably come up with something different when I crank the machine up again next term. While I do not believe the more extravagant talk of One Nation flows to the Coalition matching those of the Greens to Labor, I do think YouGov, Newspoll and DemosAU have likely been judicious in bumping up the Coalition’s share from 64.3% to upwards of 70%, and that Labor’s 85.7% share of Greens preferences from 2022 is unlikely to be matched. That should be enough to knock a point off what BludgerTrack is crediting Labor with, which would make tomorrow night all about whether or not Labor can make it to a majority.
Late mail from party sources related via media reports:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reported yesterday that Labor internal polling showed them leading in the Coalition-held seats of Sturt and Bonner, respectively by 53.5-46.5 and 51.5-48.5, and tied in Bass. In rather sharp contrast to talk coming from the Liberal camp, the polling shows Labor holding Whitlam by 56-44 and Gorton by 55-45. Labor is said to lead the Greens by 54.5-45.5 in Wills, where party sources say the Greens are withdrawing resources to focus on their seats in Brisbane. Maiden quotes a Liberal source saying Labor’s expectation of a final seat tally somewhere between 72 and 78 is “credible”.
• A different story emerges from the Liberal sources of The Australian, whose theory of victory involves winning Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and Bullwinkel from Labor, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong from independents and Ryan from the Greens, pushing its seat count into the seventies and giving it the whip hand in cross-bench negotiations over Labor, who would be reduced to 67. The sources invoked went so far as to rate eight gains as definite and ten as likely. Concerns were nonetheless acknowledged about Bradfield and, unusually for such a bullish assessment, Bass and Braddon were “considered too close to call but the Coalition is confident of retaining them” (a bit of cognitive dissonance that might be thought to colour the rest of the assessment). Labor was “also facing neck-and-neck races in Bennelong, Robertson and Lyons”, though why they would be excluded from the list of seats about which the Coalition was “hopeful” if this were so is unclear. Then there is Lingiari, ̶which is considered tough to poll”, and presumably for that reason alone is rated “too close to call”.
Happy democracy day everyone!
First time voting in a Federal election outside of the ACT, now in Parramatta.
Had a decent wait to vote, no angst or bad interactions going on. Only Labor and Liberal signs around, with both equally represented among the volunteers.
And a democracy sausage afterwards.
Prediction: ALP with 77 seats.
How much Labor primary vote is lost to strategic Teal voting ? It must be huge and explains any PV moves. No point voting Lab in these seats whatsoever.
I’m deciding between Sky News and 7 as to which coverage I will watch tonight. Antony and the ABC will be the best of course but I’m looking for a little schadenfreude tonight..
Sky has Credlin, Uhlmann, Sarah Henderson, Barnaby, amongst others.
7 has Michaelia Cash, Jane Hume, Woz Mundine in their line up.
I’m looking forward to seeing these clowns enjoy their shit sandwich as the results come in.
Wonder what channel 9’s version of the boot/chopper will be this year. That’s always fun.
Random question for everyone. Does anyone here have any election night traditions when it comes to food? I know we discussed this at length 3 years ago, but buggered if my shit memory can remember any of the chat.
Mostly Interested
The majority of the issues people criticise Labor for are global. Every Western country is trying to deal with them.
Liberal HTV lady sitting at a table doing a crossword not even looking up as people walk past. I almost felt sorry for her. Franklin/Huon Valley
What can we expect from the early counting? I know that the very earliest is from small rural booths, but after that can we expect Labor to surge ahead and then be whittled back a bit or Libs jump out early and Labor reels them in?……Asking for my Blood Pressures sake.
BTRProducer – G’day mate, I remember having that chat with you 3 years ago.
I’ll go for a large meat lovers pizza tonight, and a lot of beer. If Albo’s having a good night, I’ll get rather inebriated.
As for TV election coverage tonight, I’m tossing up between the ABC and Channel 9, and I’ll hop on over to Sky News if Dutton’s losing and check out the sombre atmosphere on their panel.
The ABC tonight has Jim Chalmers on their panel and Scott Ryan too, along with the usual cast of Speersy, Sarah Ferguson, La Tingle, Annabelle Crabb, the legendary A Green and Casey Briggs.
Channel 9 has Christopher Pyne on for some comedy, and Karl Stefanovic hanging out with his mate Dutts.
Bellwether I thought labor could have made much more of that point.
@(faux)4Reason:
“ FFS Are you really so blind not to see what a boon to Labor the Teals are?”
_____
Are you so blind as to be unable to read the list that Jimbob ran up the flagpole, and to which my post responded? Go back and check it out: they are all (or nearly all) Labor held seats. Capisce?
Your appreciation of me is also pig ignorant. You can go into the bin with Jimbob.
For the record, I love the Teals (even though they are mainly tree Tories who give zero fucks about workers’ rights etc): they simultaneously deny the Tories heartland seats and also provide a pathway for Labor to negotiate constructively, if called upon to do so. Unlike the Greens that don’t seek to set up wedges and blocks that deny actual public progress and further polarise the community and hence enshitten Australian politics. Heck, I even strongly recommend tactical voting in Tory seats that Labor doesn’t have a real chance of winning, let alone holding onto.
I’d expect Labor to have a good lead tonight in many seats once they’ve counted the election day votes, but when they start counting pre polls, as often happens, some of those leads will whittle away.
Minority Govt is still my pick, Labor to have more seats than the other mob, and Albo can do a deal with Teals and Independents.
Mundo, I’m down visiting our Huon Valley farm, I didn’t realise you were down this way.
Diogenes says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 10:45 am
I just hope Albo remembers, when writing his winning speech, to think about why he was behind in the polls for so long. This isn’t a ringing endorsement of him. It’s a vote against Dutton, the nuclear idiocy and Trump.
Albo should thank the voters of Australia. We should all be glad that they have not been sucked in yet again by Reactionary lies, gaslighting and trickery.
Politics is hard to do. Your comments illustrate just how hard it can be for even a successful, orderly, disciplined, capable Labor Government.
Labor has to succeed in the face of relentlessly mendacious obstruction by all other players…by the Reactionaries, by their tactical pupils, the Greens, by the MSM, by the goons in PHON and FF, by the lobbyists funded by big business, by the ideological hate campaigns run by and for the Reactionaries thru social media.
This election is about the choice between the ideological obsessions, the duplicity and the hatreds of the Reactionaries and their delegates compared with Labor’s well-tempered sanity. It’s a fight for the social estate – for whether to destroy it or whether to strengthen and improve it.
Make no mistake. The Reactionaries in their many guises hate the social estate. They hate the values of equality. They hate the idea of social justice. They hate the thought of economic justice. They fear the modern.
Labor created the social estate in this country. The Reactionaries were against it in the first place and remain determined to destroy it when they get the chance.
@Democracy Sausage
Good to catch up again, cobber! As soon as I read your message my memory kicked in. Pizza and beer sounds like a perfect combo.
I’m leaning towards pizza as well. Ordered some Albo beer from Willy the Boatman, but sadly it didn’t arrive in time for today. So might pop out and get some Hawke beer from Uncle Dan. But I also have a bottle of Chandon and a bottle of Penfolds, along with Amarula and Bailey’s.
My plan is to pop the bubbles in the event of Duttplug losing Dickson.
Tonight could get messy.
Mostly …..Mundo is a permanent resident of his Huon Valley farm
Two notes on the final YouGov poll.
First, the big one: 38% of respondents had already voted. This has implications for the accuracy of the data not just in relation to this poll and other final polls this election cycle, but for future cycles. Providing that there are continued increases in prepoll voting, polls late in the election cycle may increasingly be more like exit polls.
Second, the methodology changed so voters chose from the actual candidates available in their seat. This makes the weakness of the major party vote more striking, because fewer voters had an option to vote for an independent compared to previous polls.
Also, things that stand out from the DemosAU poll: A projected 7.3% increase in the vote for independents in seats contested by Climate 200 backed candidates (sample size: 873, MoE: 4.5%). This sample size and MoE is roughly around the same for the state-level breakdowns.
On preferred Prime Minister, DemosAU found Trumpet of Patriots backers were very mixed, with 30% for Albanese, 37% for Dutton and 33% for didn’t know. One Nation backers had 21% for Albanese, 43% for Dutton and 36% for didn’t know.
By comparison, the Greens (who we know do heavily preference Labor) have 71% for Albanese, 10% for Dutton and 19% for don’t know. Independents have 56% for Albanese, 20% for Dutton and 23% for don’t know. No sample size or MoE is given for this section. 79% of Coalition supporters went for Dutton and 89% of Labor supporters.
These numbers may be interesting to reflect upon once we know the results and in particular the preference flows given by One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots voters.
Scary thought, PHON might end up with balance of power in senate.
BTRProducer says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:09 am
Random question for everyone. Does anyone here have any election night traditions when it comes to food? I know we discussed this at length 3 years ago, but buggered if my shit memory can remember any of the chat.
I’ve felt compelled to eat my hat once or twice.
Day 0, ALP majority being the most likely outcome.
The implied mean expected number of ALP seat is 76.6 with a standard deviation of 3. So, anywhere between low 70’s and low 80’s is a possibility (75 is my guess). If it lands in the middle, it could be a night where sophomore effects, sandbagging and targeted ads result in only a few seats moving columns. So we could end up with a lot of “we knew we had a tough fight, but (insert incumbent name) is very popular and worked hard…..” mini speeches.
Thank you Work to Rule for your daily updates. They’ve been a highlight for me each day the last few weeks. Very much appreciate the work you put in.
BW
No kudos whatsoever for Albanese conducting an almost flawless campaign?
He campaigned very well, showed discipline and grit but it’s about how you govern. The announcements dont point to fixing up the structural problems in Australia.
This term will lock in our renewable energy future but there wasnt a lot of long term planning.
“DepressRelease says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:24 am”
____
Yes, I too noticed those things from the last YouGov poll, and it will be interesting to compare with the actual election results breakdowns, when they are fully known and digested.
BBC Home Service @ #412 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 8:52 am
Back for a short break. Liberals handing out HTVs are concentrating on reminding punters of the temporary Cost of Living petrol price relief. So I’m saying, ‘For permanent Cost of Living Relief, vote Labor!’ 😉
Re corflutes: we have local craftspeople who take them from us at the end of the day, also they are apparently good for the bottom of guinea pig cages.
Labor uses plastic wrapping made from recycled plastic. 🙂
I will be drinking an Irish whisky matured in Mizunara oak.
I got drunk a week ago and ordered it at 1am. I tried to cancel it the next morning without luck.
Mundo, when I say ‘farm’ i mean land that has been in the family 150 years but but now grows a lot of scotch thistles and native hens and many 80 year old apple trees. Oh and 10 sheep.
Diogenes @ #523 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 11:35 am
Up to two bottles of Mcguigans black label merlot depending when Antony calls it for a majority Labor victory.
bug1 @ #516 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 11:25 am
Not if The Greens play ball. 😐
Steve777says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:00 am
The Liberals are winning the battle of the posters, with huge and highly visible billboards near busy roads and key intersections, with corflutes and posters everywhere, multiplying like rabbits. I drove past Lane Cove Civic Centre yesterday, a voting place in the Bennelong electorate. People who would have been Liberal volunteers were apparently lining the main entrance walkway with Liberal banners. The aim seems to be to occupy as much space as possible.
——————
i think we concede the battle of the posters. it’s the battle of the ballott box that’s important. unfortunately for them not one poster votes. my response and many at the booth i was at was ho hum
I hereby decree that today will be celebrated as ‘Labor Day’.
Been out talking to a few folk in the seat of Bradfield.
Not much confidence among Lib voters they can hold out the Teal. Comments that Kapterian facing a challenge on many fronts including the ex Lib who is running as an independent and preferencing Teal expected to pick up an important % of the Chatswood Chinese vote. So Teal aside, Libs have to hold out Labor strategic voters and prefs, Greens prefs and an independent.
Seems highly unlikely.
It would be rude to vote labor out on a labor day long weekend.
“ Scary thought, PHON might end up with balance of power in senate.”
Highly unlikely. Only half the Senate is up this time, and this is replacing the portion elected at the 2019 election.
Fassifern in the hunter where I am today is near Toronto on the western side of the lake. A pretty sleepy village and booth.
The nats didn’t bother even assigning anyone to hand out HTVs here and I’m now almost certain one nation will come second in the primary count.
I’m getting a sense that PHON will have a few more senators after today. But big Dan looks to be ok which is the main thing
Mostly Interested @ #496 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 11:01 am
Sadly, “good” government does not seem to be the same as “effective” or “useful” government. Most bipartisans seem to think a “good” government is anything that keeps their particular faction in office. Any achievements over and above that are just a lucky bonus, and are (more often than not) completely accidental.
Mundo at 9.44 am
To quote a French film starring Juliette Binoche, “Un beau Soliel interieur” (Let the Sunshine in).
Diogenessays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 10:45 am
[I just hope Albo remembers, when writing his winning speech, to think about why he was behind in the polls for so long. This isn’t a ringing endorsement of him. It’s a vote against Dutton, the nuclear idiocy and Trump.]
You are well monikered!
There were a lot more Libs than usual handing out where i voted, still maybe a few less than Alex Dyson. Saw one ALP person (i knew) who totally understood me voting tactically.
LCA had two people which is a good sign for their senate prospects, esp as ALP giving them preferences, didnt see any other minors.
‘Diogenes says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 10:45 am
I just hope Albo remembers, when writing his winning speech, to think about why he was behind in the polls for so long. This isn’t a ringing endorsement of him. It’s a vote against Dutton, the nuclear idiocy and Trump.’
=================
Uh huh. There is nothing quite like gratuitous advice from a perenniel anti-Labor slagger.
Every single party, taken individually on primaries, has been well behind the rest. The trick is to cobble together a set of policies that 50% + 1 will support on a mix of primaries and preferences on election day.
Albanese would be perfectly aware that Labor gets only a third on primaries and that the other 20% of preference has to come from elsewhere.
Albanese made a suite of promises in the last election. He delivered most of them in extremely difficult circumstances.
Albanese has made a suite of promises in this election. Circumstances and the Bandt/Dutton blockers and wreckers allowing, he will deliver them. Again.
The polling fact of the matter is that the electorate as a whole on primaries has shifted significantly to the right. Hanson is THE big winner.
IMO there are three fault lines in Australian politics.
The first is home ownership/not home ownership. The second is high migration/low migration. The third is working poor/working wealthy.
Albanese won on number one. Dutton lost number two because he was caught in the internal contradictions of his policy while Albanese had a coherent story. Albanese won on three despite Dutton waving a petrol hose around because Labor’s core value is to support workers over bosses.
Albanese’s government, policies and campaign were team-based. The policies are costed, coherent, integrated, address policy issues and address the wants of the electorate.
There is a persistent effort at splaining away an Albanese win that does not pass the pub test.
Assuming Albanese does win, it is because Albanese won. His Government has just had a functional three years. It is promising the same sort of functionality over the next three years.
The yawning chasm between Dutton and Albanese on policy settings has been on climate. Chalk and cheese. Albanese is building. Dutton promised to wreck the lot.
My favourite line from Albanese is this: ‘People have underestimated me all their lives’. It is interesting that Bludgers are still at it.
If Albanese gets another three years he will go down in history as the prime minister who finally got the Commonwealth fully invested in climate action.
IMO, and taking a step back, ALL the rest of his policies will be regarded in the future as noise.
IMO, Australia faces three fundamental resets. The first is to climate. The second is to loss of minerals income. The third is when it comes to repaying Fly Now Pay Later. Combined, we are heading for a smash. Albanese is addressing the first but not the second and not the thirds. Dutton is addressing none of the three.
We live in the age of instant gratification. Any party that promises deferred gratification will not be elected.
Enjoy.
Jimbobsays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 10:16 am
[If it’s a bad night for Coalition, could we see a sub 40 return on seats. They being attacked everywhere, by Labor, Teals, country independents, old members turned independents, Greens in Sturt, One Nation. Could be a bloodbath bath for them. At least 25 in 25. Lets end the duopoly of same same.]
You’ve conveniently “bobbed” up for the election (or not)
BTRProducer says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:09 am
Random question for everyone. Does anyone here have any election night traditions when it comes to food? I know we discussed this at length 3 years ago, but buggered if my shit memory can remember any of the chat.
_______________
Turkish pide for us with a bottle of vintage fortified/port. Last election was a proper vintage port from Oporto to celebrate, but this time round we are staying local. And the occasional champagne depending on results of course.
A little quirky like many traditions are 🙂
“The Australian said: “We owe our allegiance to no party … But in the key areas of defence, energy and the economy, the Coalition provides the best option for managing the demands of challenging and uncertain times.”
Starts with a lie, and ends in farce.
It’s International Naked Gardening Day according to Facebook this morning. Not the time to get into the scotch thistles
crisps and bubbles.
“Of course they are
Up to 2% of Labor’s “lost” PV are actually tactical Labor voters in Teal seats”
Like me for example. Just got back from showing the 6 year old the democratic ropes. Chatted with the Ryan volunteers about how wrenching it is choosing who to put last. Very sedate out there around here, it’s not like last election. The mood from the Lib how to vote people was resigned.
However bear in mind that it’s SOME tactical voting. It’s also some genuinely preferring the Teal candidate to Labor.
Antony Green to call no path for LNP to form any sort of Government before 7.30 pm ..
LeftieBrawler – great that you have been helping out Big Dan; he has to be my favourite Federal MP. I am nervous about it still; will be watching closely. Wishing the team all the best.
Thank you to everyone for the entertainment in recent weeks; and particularly William, Mostly Interested, Work To Rule and others who have been putting in the yards… 🙂
Player One says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:51 am
“Mostly Interested @ #496 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 11:01 am
The fact is Labor ran a good government in this past term and will run a good government in this next term.”
Sadly, “good” government does not seem to be the same as “effective” or “useful” government. Most bipartisans seem to think a “good” government is anything that keeps their particular faction in office. Any achievements over and above that are just a lucky bonus, and are (more often than not) completely accidental.
_____________
Bipartisan yet their particular faction? What a pretzel 🙂
Diogenes @ #520 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 11:31 am
I’ve said several times here that Energizer Albo is a good campaigner, although let’s be honest – when your opponent is Dud Dutton, there was never really a contest.
It’s just a shame that Sulky Albo – who will be back after the election – is such a useless Prime Minister.
FWIW, the booth where I prepolled a week ago was this morning completely empty of voters and much reduced in HTV hander outerers.
Re True Believer @11:08. ”How much Labor primary vote is lost to strategic Teal voting ? It must be huge and explains any PV moves. No point voting Lab in these seats whatsoever.”
Just taking North Sydney as an example, Labor’s primary vote decreased by 3.6% from 2019, compared to a general swing in the Labor primary vote of -0.8%. Meanwhile, the Greens vote decreased by 5.1% against a general swing of +1.9% them.
There were no scandals. Labor had a good candidate. The Greens probably also, I don’t recall. I would suggest that most of the “lost” Labor and Green vote (nearly 10% of the total vote) went to the Teal Independent candidate Kylea Tink. I think (but don’t know) that nearly all of that would have been tactical, given there were no issues with the candidates.
The Liberal vote dropped by 13.9%. Most of the 2.9% going Hansonites, Libertarians and Uninformed Medical Opinions probable came from 2019 Liberal and Christian Democrat voters. Most of the other 12%, probably the great majority, went to Ms Tink.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Australian_federal_election#House_of_Representatives
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-137.htm