The Australian reports the concluding Newspoll for the campaign has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, out from 52-48 a week ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese is on 42% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), while Peter Dutton is on 32% (down three) and 60% (up one) and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1270.
YouGov has weighed in with its final national poll, conducted last Thursday through to yesterday, which is distinctive even by the standards of recent polling in the weakness of the major party vote: Labor is on 31.1%, down from 33.5% in last week’s regular YouGov poll, with the Coalition on 31.4%, up from 31.0%. The Greens are up from 14.0% to 14.6% and One Nation is down from 10.5% to 8.5%, with independent up from 5.0% to 6.7%, Trumpet of Patriots up from 2.0% to 2.5% and other up from 4.0% to 5.2%. Presumably incorporating data from the latest MRP poll, the preference allocations have been tweaked: Labor’s share from One Nation is down from 33% to 31% (and from 35.7% at the 2022 election), but its independent share is up from 59% to 65% (63.8% in 2022). This pans out to 52.2-47.8 to Labor, in from 53.5-47.8 last week. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Peter Dutton is down three to 33% and up three to 57%; and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 50-35 to 51-34. The poll was conducted last Thursday to yesterday from a sample of 3003.
Also out today was a poll was a poll from DemosAU showing Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 33%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 9%. Labor was credited with a two-party lead of 52-48 – whereas in the past this pollster had been using preference flows from the 2022 election, this time the Coalition was credited with the 73% of One Nation preferences they received at the Queensland election last October, which would reduce Labor’s two-party by about 0.7%. The poll had a bumper sample of 4100, lending credibility to state breakdowns recording 50-50 in New South Wales (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%), 53-47 to Labor in Victoria (a Coalition swing of about 2%), 54-46 to the Coalition in Queensland (no swing) and 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia (a Labor swing of about 1%). The poll was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday.
The print editions of the News Corp papers have a final wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research tracking poll of 20 marginal seats, in which Labor’s blowout 54.5-45.5 lead over the previous two weeks has moderated to 53-47, implying a swing to Labor of 2%. The accompanying report is light on for detail – nothing on primary votes, field work dates or sample size – but there is likely to be more from a forthcoming online report.
Roy Morgan has a poll with Labor leading 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, unchanged on the poll released on Monday, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34.5% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (down one). The two-party result based on 2022 preference flows is 54-46, likewise unchanged. The poll was conducted from Monday through to today from a sample of 1368.
That just leaves the only poll that matters – and BludgerTrack, which ends with Labor’s lead at a new peak of 53.2-47.8, exactly equal to Bob Hawke’s winning margin in 1983. I must stress that this is not at all what I expect to happen, and I will be happy to admit I was wrong if I am proved right, so to speak. The caveats were laid out in yesterday’s post: as well as a tendency of polling over recent years to overstate Labor’s primary vote, BludgerTrack’s application of preference flows from the last election almost undoubtedly flatters Labor, and I will probably come up with something different when I crank the machine up again next term. While I do not believe the more extravagant talk of One Nation flows to the Coalition matching those of the Greens to Labor, I do think YouGov, Newspoll and DemosAU have likely been judicious in bumping up the Coalition’s share from 64.3% to upwards of 70%, and that Labor’s 85.7% share of Greens preferences from 2022 is unlikely to be matched. That should be enough to knock a point off what BludgerTrack is crediting Labor with, which would make tomorrow night all about whether or not Labor can make it to a majority.
Late mail from party sources related via media reports:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reported yesterday that Labor internal polling showed them leading in the Coalition-held seats of Sturt and Bonner, respectively by 53.5-46.5 and 51.5-48.5, and tied in Bass. In rather sharp contrast to talk coming from the Liberal camp, the polling shows Labor holding Whitlam by 56-44 and Gorton by 55-45. Labor is said to lead the Greens by 54.5-45.5 in Wills, where party sources say the Greens are withdrawing resources to focus on their seats in Brisbane. Maiden quotes a Liberal source saying Labor’s expectation of a final seat tally somewhere between 72 and 78 is “credible”.
• A different story emerges from the Liberal sources of The Australian, whose theory of victory involves winning Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and Bullwinkel from Labor, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong from independents and Ryan from the Greens, pushing its seat count into the seventies and giving it the whip hand in cross-bench negotiations over Labor, who would be reduced to 67. The sources invoked went so far as to rate eight gains as definite and ten as likely. Concerns were nonetheless acknowledged about Bradfield and, unusually for such a bullish assessment, Bass and Braddon were “considered too close to call but the Coalition is confident of retaining them” (a bit of cognitive dissonance that might be thought to colour the rest of the assessment). Labor was “also facing neck-and-neck races in Bennelong, Robertson and Lyons”, though why they would be excluded from the list of seats about which the Coalition was “hopeful” if this were so is unclear. Then there is Lingiari, ̶which is considered tough to poll”, and presumably for that reason alone is rated “too close to call”.
Morning all and thanks to HH and Cat for their roundups and to William Bowe for another handy wrap of final polling. Great efforts all round.
To me nothing better sums up the staggering right wing bias of Australian media than this story.
“Who’s backing who? Every major newspaper’s pick for prime minister. On Friday, a slim majority, led by News Corp’s mastheads, went against the expectations of pollsters and backed the Coalition to gain power on Saturday evening.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/who-s-backing-who-every-newspaper-s-pick-for-prime-minister-20250501-p5lvup.html
The 2025 Liberal campaign led by Dutton had to be one of the worst in recent decades. Dutton has been bereft of charm, ideas and even consistency. His shadow cabinet has been no better. Yet the Murdoch press still backs Dutton.
It is dangerous to be presumptive so I won’t assume too much for now. Preference flows in three cornered contests can be tricky to predict so I will not assume a Labor majority. But I do assume a Labor government, at least in minority form. The opposition has not made a case to change.
Good luck to all bludgers out on booths or scrutineering today. I will be scrutineering a booth in Sturt and with the complexity of the count it may drag on. I hope the result is known by the time I get home.
Daniel – exactly why they might vote Dyson instead
Seats to watch tonight. Franklin, Wills, Macnamara, Cooper, Fraser, McMahon, Richmond, Sydney, Moreton, Perth,Fremantle, Adelaide. Have l missed any? At least 25 in 25. Let’s end the duopoly same same uni party and vote independent/minors. At least 25 in 25. You can do it.
Alpha Zero that John Darkow cartoon reminded me of this for some reason
”I wonder whether many Labor voters will strategically vote for Dyson in Wannon?”
It makes a lot of sense for someone who wants Labor to continue in Government. Labor is very unlikely to win there, so vote for someone who is more acceptable than Dan Tehan who has a good chance of winning. I would do so if I lived there.
Greetings and salutations Dandy and DQ. Just enjoying an omelette and a flat white in the sun on this glorious autumn morning before my shift on the booths.
I have well and truly learnt my lesson about predicting elections, but I do hold a faint romantic hope that today’s beautiful clear blue in God’s own Division of Macarthur foretells of a good result for the True Believers.
Lucien… Watching that charlatan desperately trying to rehabilitate his reputation with the assistance of the media knobs that have always fallen for his crap has been nauseating. Your part in pissing billions away on fraudband and your enabling of Abbott and all your other sins committed for no better cause than your own ego won’t be forgotten nor forgiven by any too little too late critiques of the RWNJs you helped validate or the Murdoch media you were so happy to indulge when they were lying about Labor for your benefit. I hold Tones, ScoMo, and even the Reichspotato in higher regard. St least they’re not pretending not to be scumbags.
Anyhoo, nearly time to go and try to make my modest contribution to democracy….
@JenAuthor – “I wonder whether many Labor voters will strategically vote for Dyson in Wannon”
I expect so, that’s how it works in all the other Teal seats including Labor and Greens volunteers working for the Teal campaign.
“Jimbob says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:54 am
Seats to watch tonight. Franklin, Wills, Macnamara, Cooper, Fraser, McMahon, Richmond, Sydney, Moreton, Fremantle. Have l missed any? At least 25 in 25. Let’s end the duopoly same same uni party and vote independent/minors. At least 25 in 25. You can do it.”
______
From that list it’s clear that you are just another paid up member of the Anti-Labor Party.
May as well be Dutton or Gina.
In the bin you go Jimbob
Jimbob
Sturt is one to watch for sure. 0.5% margin. On polls it is an excellent chance to fall. It could go to Labor or Greens with preferences critical.
Happy polling day everyone.
I’m feeling optimistic but nervous.
Further buoyed after watching Katie Gallagher v James Patterson from last night’s 730 and then Anthony Albanese doing lots of AFL metaphors from the MCG this morning on 7 and 9’s breakfast shows. “600,000 free TAFE spots which equals six MCG’s.” “I’m not playing full forward, centre half forward and half back, I’ve got a great team around me.” Impressive campaign from Albanese and Labor team. Late momentum to us I think based on LNP iffy costings and higher deficits and interest rates cuts locked in.
TPP result prediction 53:47 ALP 83 seats.
I voted last Saturday, so I’ll relax and enjoy Sydney’s first rain-free day since the Easter weekend.
Another beautiful morning in Melbourne town
On one hand it’s great. On the other. It is very dry…….
Good call Vic.
Trumpet of patriots last – they can shove their text messages.
Final update to the SCM Early Voting Adjusted Election Forecast.
The model now includes a randomised polling error variable (based on the 2019 polling error) and is run through a simulator 10,000 times.
Whilst this could potentially help the LNP, the results aren’t good for them. They now need an almost impossible 57.90% 2PP required of election day votes to pull off a highly unlikely victory.
This is the equivalent of needing about 20 runs an over off the last 4 overs of a one-day cricket match.
Full forecast at: https://socialchangemedia.net.au/blog/early-voting-adjusted-forecast-2025-federal-election
The SmearStralian struggling to cope, even bringing out Mike Pezzullo to beat the accelerationist drum..
“Sitting next to 2 young Asian/Australian clinicians at work now….they are talking about how they voted for Hanson and how Labor has done nothing for them (they would have a hefty HECS debt for starters)….
I despair sometimes.”
This encapsulates why I get so mad about left wing groups like the Greens flooding young people with bullshit about Labor doing nothing and not spending much time going after the right.
This is what it creates.
What is this thing called “dry”? A totally alien concept.
But seriously, best wishes to all those working hard for the good guys today, handing out how-to-vote cards and scrutineering. May your efforts pay off.
my cheese and kisses just got a text from the
trumpet of assholes .
Is this legal , i thought all adds were banned today..?
the price of having DR in front of your name..
On this election day. This quote comes to mind.
———
Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
If it’s a bad night for Coalition, could we see a sub 40 return on seats. They being attacked everywhere, by Labor, Teals, country independents, old members turned independents, Greens in Sturt, One Nation. Could be a bloodbath bath for them. At least 25 in 25. Lets end the duopoly of same same.
The Kennedy family. Amazing that any managed to be grounded. A family in a bubble. If only JFK didn’t take his off in Dallas
Victoria
That quote is bang on.
Mundo is worried Labor won’t get to 90 seats. He should be worried. 82 will pull them up. 🙂
“Steve777says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:55 am
”I wonder whether many Labor voters will strategically vote for Dyson in Wannon?”
It makes a lot of sense for someone who wants Labor to continue in Government. Labor is very unlikely to win there, so vote for someone who is more acceptable than Dan Tehan who has a good chance of winning. I would do so if I lived there.”
Of course they are
Up to 2% of Labor’s “lost” PV are actually tactical Labor voters in Teal seats
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/the-atlantic_when-adolf-hitler-became-chancellor-the-activity-7324191151467474944-eGD7, oops …
I’ve pre-polled last week so enjoying this cooler, rainy Perth morning.
mundo says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 9:43 am
I’m worried.
__________
Phew! I would be worried if you weren’t 🙂
“I wonder whether many Labor voters will strategically vote for Dyson in Wannon?”
Mt father did. I would have too, but I’m 10 km’s from the wannon border.
I just heard that the libs spent 5 x as much in wannon than usual. They are obviously worried.
We need a Dyson type in Mallee please, although it would be a tough ask to beat the nats here.
For our friends “Over East” you will not be at all surprised by the very sour offering of our local rag, the The West Australian newspaper.
From the pro-Liberal/anti-Labor editor – and one assumes owner – down, the paper is in full angry mode.
*Front page is an attack in Chaney because it seems Labor is supporting her…Well hello, Liberal Party!
*The cartoonist, who once I thought was funny, is now from most of his offerings happy to sing the editorial policy of the paper.
*The House Pet/former editor of the West (local) Paul Murray is in full Labor bash
*The LtotheE has rounded up and has given space to a well-know coterie of Labor bashers.
*And, puzzlingly, because I thought there was a so-called black-out on election advertising, there on page 11, of the electronic issue is an “advertisement” for ON which is blatantly their “How to Vote” card. There is no other election type stuff like this in the whole paper…at least in its electronic form.
Anyway, you can sure add the West to the list of LNP loving papers in the mainstream on the other side of the country.
If you were a Doomsday Believer, the West would reassure you.
Tricot they are #1 on my ‘suck shit you utterly pathetic losers’ list for later tonight
I just did my bit for democracy (Aston).
It was the longest queue to vote I’ve ever had to put up with. Still short by many countries’ standards, of course, but I was expecting it to be non-existant because so many people had already voted pre-poll.
It could be that we’re just Australia, a long way away from the centres of neo-fascism. However, as I read what is happening in the USA etc., is a manifestation of the Khrushchev statement of “not needing to fire a shot, but destroy the US from within”. In the late 50s!
I see a heap of wonk where the Teals and the Greens are called reactionary, Liberal lite etc.
I don’t see it that way. In this election, and you bet that the Coalition see it this way, as a fight between the forces of authoritarianism vs democracy and the rule of law. Just because the Libs aren’t innovative and are just followers of whatever Trump’s Campaign Chief told them to do, doesn’t mean they aren’t as rabid and proto-fascist as the others and would competently enact a Trump world here.
Yes, there are people who hate the Greens here. I think they’ve been pretty immature in how they go about things and a few other complaints, but that’s not for saying in this post.
However, I believe this election is the most important we have ever had, because of this threat.
That actually makes us united. What you won’t find is Greens and ALP supporters stating a wish for the end of the rule of law, the arresting of judges, deportation of random Aussie citizens, all national parks to be logged, married women to be denied the right to vote, renewables to be made illegal (not that one yet, it’s coming)…
If a Teal gets up in a Lib seat, awesome. If the Greens get up in a Lib seat, awesome. Yes, they take from the ALP, that’s their right.
However, the Teals are stopping us from descending into fascism. That is why I’m helping them out. The ALP would NEVER win in Mosman or Woollahra. So why not fk up the Libs here. The more Teals the better.
Arguing over whether they will support worker’s rights is a fight for later.
We have to stop the Coalition from EVER gaining government again. Luckily, because like the Russian army, we are lucky they are so stupid. They seem to be in a purity purge far right death spiral, and all the pro-Lib commentators seem quite unhinged here in the comments.
The key thing is if they come out and say “the reason we lost the election is that we weren’t MAGA enough”. That will be the Swan Lake moment for them. We have to make it that way.
King Charles will open Canada’s recently-elected Parliament when it resumes at the end of the month.
Prime Minister Mark Carney invited the monarch to read the Speech from the throne, giving an outline of the new government’s legislative program.
Carney said the King’s presence will serve as a clear reminder that Canada will never be a part of the United States.
“I made the request of his majesty, and he has accepted. He will open Parliament with the speech from the throne and that clearly underscores the sovereignty of our country,” he said.
Carney will probably mention this when he goes to Washington on Tuesday for his first meeting with President Donald Trump. Trump is said to be a fan of the Royal family and hopefully will recognize that he will have to deal with King Charles if he wants to take over Canada.
The last time the monarch opened Canada’s Parliament was in 1977.
Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre will have to watch the Speech from the gallery after being defeated in his local riding. But a generous Alberta Conservative M.P. has offered to resign his safe seat to give Poilievre another way back into the House of Commons. He shouldn’t have too much trouble in a by-election since the Conservative M.P. was elected with 80 per cent of the vote.
Patterson Lakes booth in Dunkley today. FWIW the place is a ghost town…! Patto being the one part of Dunkley that tends Liberal (a large chunk of the suburbs consists of retirement villages, but it’s also the real life suburb where they shot Kath & Kim).
Seems everyone voted early – long lines at pre-poll, but no one here now.
In elections where a big swing is on to the ALP I always have dreams of seeing the host on the ABC election coverage say, “Tonight the Liberal Party have been virtually wiped out”.
It’s not going to happen of course, but it’s nice to dream about it.
I am going in the afternoon. But all the snags might be gone!
The first election I was ever working at happened on the day of the 1999 preliminary final and nobody came to vote in the final quarter. The wife of one of the poll workers turned up with fresh scones earlier on. Even the canvassers got some.
“We have to stop the Coalition from EVER gaining government again”
================================================
Unless the Teals collectively go mad, and back a coalition minority, they may never gain govt again.
That’s my dream.
Big queues at what was once Naremburn Public School (Bradfield).
Lots of Andy Yin (Ind) volunteers. Will see how wearing a smart skivvy and sports jacket goes votes wise.
I just hope Albo remembers, when writing his winning speech, to think about why he was behind in the polls for so long. This isn’t a ringing endorsement of him. It’s a vote against Dutton, the nuclear idiocy and Trump.
Drove past the biggest polling booth in Franklin at 9am. No voters, lots of HTV volunteers
Diogenes
No kudos whatsoever for Albanese conducting an almost flawless campaign?
It is extreme proud ignorance on the booths here in the outer suburbs of Brisbane. What a show.
Labor, One Nation, stacks of LNP, even a Gerard Rennick – but no Greens.
I can only see ALP gains towards the city; and perhaps Dickson.
Rest of the country -> please save us from the LNP… again.
The election advertising blackout only applies to broadcast services – TV and radio. It does not affect print media or the internet.
https://www.acma.gov.au/election-and-referendum-blackout-periods
“We have to stop the Coalition from EVER gaining government again”
================================================
Unless the Teals collectively go mad, and back a coalition minority, they may never gain govt again.
That’s my dream.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Any possibility of fake teals out there – deep cover?
Bellwether,this shit and shit lite the far left is running is so damaging. For a group who get 15% of the PV nationally they’re so entitled.
The fact is Labor ran a good government in this past term and will run a good government in this next term.
Morning all Bludgers. Here’s to an amazing day of democracy, snags, and Liberal tears.
Here’s hoping the polls are right this year. I’m hopeful but nervous. Really don’t want Dutton to win. I only want a Labor Majority government. Albo deserves an 8 in front of his seat count. I’m tired of people claiming a minority government is the best path forward. It’s been 30 years since we had a long term stable majority Labor Government. It’s time for another one.
What gets me about all the discourse around both parties being the same is it patently false. The idea only gets traction because the Libs have been in power for the bulk of the last 30 years, and have been useless to middling at best. In that time, helped by Murdoch, they’ve easily established the narrative that Labor are worse than them. Which means everyone just thinks that everyone is as bad as each other. When the party in power are crap, and keep telling everyone the other party is crapper, reinforced by the MSM, it’s hard for Labor to prove they’re actually pretty good.
The only experience people have of Labor at a Federal level in 2008-2013 was not exactly the party at its best in terms of perception, and because they weren’t in for long, the good things they did achieve were quickly ruined by the ATM Government.
If we really want to restore people’s faith in politics, then we need a solid thumping majority Labor government for 3 to 4 terms. You just know that if we get a minority government, the Libs and the MSM will spend the next 3 years tarring it as a mess. And that will continue to deepen people’s assumptions about how poor all politicians are.
And for those people who say that Albo has no vision and only tinkers at the edges, that’s fair. But it’s also how reform happens. Sure, if you tinker once or twice and then declare the job is done, then that’s bad. But if you keep tinkering and tinkering at the edges, constantly, for several years, after 3 or 4 terms you never once spook the electorate, and you can look back and point to how much change you achieved. That’s how real meaningful reform occurs.
That said, if people really want big massive reform from Albo, give him a massive seat majority. He’s governing with the hand he’s given. You don’t govern with a 1 or 2 seat majority like you have 20 seats to spare when you do big reform and the electorate get spooked.
Anyway, enough from me for now. Gotta decide if I want red or brown sauce on my democracy sausage. Bring on 6pm and the curtain call performance of Antony Green.
The money is coming in hard for Bennelong – Lab now $1.43 and for Teal in Bradfield now $1.53.
Gilmore sees Lab edge ahead $1.80 v $2 Lib.
The plunge is on, the plunge is ONNNN.
@Andrew_Earlwood
From that list it’s clear that you are just another paid up member of the Anti-Labor Party.
May as well be Dutton or Gina.
In the bin you go Jimbob
*************************
FFS Are you really so blind not to see what a boon to Labor the Teals are?
Yes, I can appreciate you are doubtless a member of the anti environmentalist cult that has consumed Labor for over 50 years (so sure you are now required to hate the Greens) but just the existing Teals have turned a knife edge majority into a very comfortable one with a mountain to climb for the LNP to ever again come close to government.
Build that mountain!
(and tactical voting in otherwise safe Liberal seats is a simple and effective way of doing so)
@Jimbob:
“ Lets end the duopoly of same same.”
______
It doesn’t exist you fantasist! It never did.
“Same same”, “duopoly” are the lies you keep telling yourself so that you can ignore a basic truth: you are doing the reactionary’s work in seeking to deny Labor political capital.
The only ‘same-same’ running in this election is the congaline of reactionaries, cookers and spivs like you, P1 and Pegarex.