The Australian reports Newspoll finds very little change on last week, with Labor continuing to lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and the primary vote remaining at 34% for Labor and 35% for the Coalition. The Greens are down a point to 11% and One Nation is up one to 8%. The only detail offered on leaders’ ratings at this stage is that Anthony Albanese’s net approval is unchanged at minus 9 while Peter Dutton is down two to minus 24. Albanese led Dutton by 51-35 as better PM (52-36 previously). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1254.
UPDATE: Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approval and 52% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is steady on 35% approval and up two on disapproval to 59%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister shifts from 52-36 to 51-35. The poll also finds 39% holding Labor deserving of re-election, up five since February, with 48% favouring the alternative option of “it’s time to give someone else a go”, down five. Thirty-eight per cent rate themselves “confident the Coalition is ready to govern”, down seven, with 62% not confident, up seven.
Charts of the Day: today we take a three-part look at the gender gap with one chart showing a trend of male-minus-female Labor two-party preferred (converted from the primary vote using my own preference estimates) going back to early 2020, as measured by Essential Research (the most data-rich source available on this point); and two showing how Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns have tracked net approval for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton among men and women going back to the start of the term. The first of these suggests an existing gap of around three points blew out to upwards of seven in early 2021, before settling in at around five points thereafter. Albanese’s ratings are notable for their lack of a gender gap, outside of the reliable tendency of women to rate themselves uncommitted in higher numbers. In contrast to Scott Morrison towards the end of his reign, there was no consistent gap for Peter Dutton in the first half of the term, but one emerged in 2024 (ranging from two to six points), and it’s widened since the start of the year (seven points in the January-to-March aggregation, ten in last week’s aggregation of polling since the budget).
Actually, now that I think about it, Georgina Downer got a Chevening Scholarship and a position at DFAT. On less than stellar Uni grades.
My prediction
ALP 66
Coalition 68
Green 3 (lose Ryan, Brisbane and gain Wills)
CA 1
KAP 1
Others 11
2pp ALP 49.9 Coalition 50.1
I agree that the 55-45 to Labor Morgan poll was an outlier. No other polls went out that far, so that’s all it is in the end.
It’s good to have these show up every so often so they can be identified as such.
Much better than what essentially happened in the 2024 US election where all the swing states essentially just ran a brown-note 50-50 poll all the time and they all went to Trump in the end anyway.
C@tmomma @ #1202 Monday, April 28th, 2025 – 10:22 pm
Georgina Downer, “The Queen That Never Was.”
Cat
“ Actually, now that I think about it, Georgina Downer got a Chevening Scholarship and a position at DFAT. On less than stellar Uni grades.”
She wasn’t very impressive when they ran her in Mayo. I think her scholarship and roles are an example of what the Americans refer to as “wing nut welfare”.
The questions that I have are: Is Geogina Downer a Temu Amelia Hamer? Or is Amelia Hamer a Temu Georgina Downer?
The variation in polls is healthy – suggesting no hearding.
Its still been some time since we have seen a poll the Liberals can win on.
As Dutton’s campaign goes more towards PHON he is writing off all the current and some new Teal seats. That means if its a minority parliament Dutton has no chance of winning enough cross bench support to lead. Dutton won’t be PM.
Re the Brethren crew
This is an excerpt from The Cairns Post, a FNQ Murdoch blurb.
That explains the big bunch of youngies waving Liberal gear and handing out HTV’s at the pre poll both in Dapto (Whitlam) that I mentioned last week.
Fit’s right in!
They are wasting their time anyway, as from my covert observation last week they were being ignored.
Any way I’m going to do the pre poll vote tomorrow so if they are still there, I’ll ask them the question.
Lookout for fireworks!
“Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has described Welcome to Country ceremonies before sports games as divisive”
Does Dutton want the country to be more inclusive for neo- Nazis but less so for Indigenous Australians?
Socrates @ #1194 Monday, April 28th, 2025 – 10:29 pm
She must have really impressed in the interviews. 😉
The fact that she wasn’t one of the ones Dutton has tried to bring back is telling.
Entropy @ #1198 Monday, April 28th, 2025 – 10:37 pm
Entropy,
This story from The Klaxon says it all about the Welcome to Country Culture War that has been stirred up by Dutton recently:
Melbourne Storm co-owner and director Brett Ralph is one of the biggest funders of disinformation group “Advance” — which has been running a campaign of hate and division against the Indigenous Welcome to Country.
Last financial year he was its tied second biggest funder, giving Advance $50,000 — behind only the Liberal Party, which gave the disinformation group a massive $500,000, Australian Electoral Commission records show.
https://theklaxon.com.au/storm-director-funds-hate-group-advance/
The Melbourne Storm were the first ones to cancel the Welcome to Country. What a coincidence!
“Plibersek looks resplendent in yellow.”
Splitting to the Lambie Party before the election starts?
I watched the 4 Corners program tonight and I found it to be balanced and fair. It was not just a hatchet job on Dutton as I feared it was going to be because such a blatant attack on Dutton 5 days out form an election could well have had a detrimental effect on the ALP vote.
What this episode showed was the stark difference between Albanese who fronts up to the media and answers awkward questions and Dutton’s evasion of the media and questions.
4 Corners revelations about Dutton’s “iffy” business dealings will not play out well, if that is, the Murdoch, 7 West and Nine Entertainment media pick up on it and include it in their coverage.
Been Theresays:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 10:36 pm
Re the Brethren crew
This is an excerpt from The Cairns Post, a FNQ Murdoch blurb.
Brethren member Robbie Williams, who was profiled by the church for his RRT work, also appears to have been handing out for Mike Creed in Macquarie.
A NSW Labor source said members of the church had been seen campaigning in seven battleground seats since pre-poll opened last week.
They included Parramatta, Macquarie, Bennelong, Reid, Shortland, Eden-Monaro, and Whitlam.
That explains the big bunch of youngies waving Liberal gear and handing out HTV’s at the pre poll both in Dapto that I mentioned last week.
Fit’s right in!
They are wasting their time anyway, as from my covert observation last week they were being ignored.
Any way I’m going to do the pre poll vote tomorrow so if they are still there, I’ll ask them the question.
Lookout for fireworks!
===================================================
I gather the Exclusive Brethren don’t believe women should be in positions of power. Do all the electorates they are campaigning in have male LNP candidates?
C@tmommasays:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 10:22 pm
Actually, now that I think about it, Georgina Downer got a Chevening Scholarship and a position at DFAT. On less than stellar Uni grades.
_______________________
Hang on. When people used to bag Kate Ellis for not finishing Uni and then suddenly becoming a Minister the stooges became highly indignant.
Re: QLD – about 2/3 weeks ago I was told two seats to keep an eye on to tell you what might be happening more broadly – Longman and Bonner – interesting to hear it raised a bit more. Mostly because they’re not in the crosshairs of the national media – it’ll be interesting to see what these seats, which, given their margins (and have a lot of similar demographics to marginals), should be being contested, do without the intense focus of traditional marginal seats.
Labor will never win Longman, Petrie or Bonner. I doubt they would even win Dickson even if Dutton retired and it went to a byelection.
Long term it means that Labor will never get a sizeable majority. there will never be more than a handful of non-right wing seats in Queensland. They are rock solid conservative compared to rest of metropolitan Australia and there will not be a trend against that.
”Does Dutton want the country to be more inclusive for neo- Nazis but less so for Indigenous Australians?”
That’s what it seems like…
@Scrote… cool, thnx.
Just wondering if the Trumpets realise that carpet-bombing TV and YouTube viewers with endless ads – literally every few minutes – featuring that bimbo who runs around blathering that she’s going to be the Next Prime Minister Of Australia come Saturday, is pissing off millions close to the point of them chucking bricks at the screen to shut her up.
Talk about counter-productive!
When I was last on everyone was putting up their predictions….some saying 75 some 80 some 84 one even above 90…….when I log back on the sky is falling Dutto about to be crowned Emperor for life. What disasters happened? I search the Guardian, the back comments and I’m ashamed to admit it, but I also logged on to The Advertiser. Nothing. What has caused this sudden hysteria and mass bed wetting? Far as I can see its Morgan which nobody believes in….until now apparently…..ahh 54-46 from Morgan!!…..lol. Get it together Man!!
I think the Coalition in with a serious chance in 4 Perth seats and two NT seats.
VIC will swing towards them and NSW will do ok.
Housing Minister has today added six months onto target date for completion of housing policy.
Absolute con job from the start Claire bear!
Another good day today for coalition.
Steve777says:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 11:02 pm
”Does Dutton want the country to be more inclusive for neo- Nazis but less so for Indigenous Australians?”
That’s what it seems like…
======================================================
Trump is a bit of Nazi fan too, so i guess it follows as a follower of Trump.
ScromoII, Labor won Longman in 2016 and then again at the 2018 by-election. Short memory or are you just lying?
Never heard Trump talk about Nazis so what’s the link apart from crackpot labor luvvies conspiracy wet dreams.
The Albonator I mean they’re all so people who think last night’s debates won the election to Peter so there was 55 to 45 53 to 47 sounds more realistic also Pied Piper please don’t say stupid s*** at least be honest
pied piper then why do Nazis like Trump
LNP will be left with 50 or fewer seats.
Why the bedwetting, Albonator?
Simple. All of a sudden the racist genie is out of the bottle, and Australians have permission to vote for a hard right extremist party, because the party that Mummy and Daddy voted for have now said you can put One Nation second across the country.
It will go one of two ways – enough people will say arghh no way, not now not ever OR too many people will say – I’ve always hated brown people and now I can admit it.
I was at a community forum yesterday in McEwen and the One Nation rep said;
1) the party doesn’t believe in climate change, but I do, and I don’t care. 2-3 metres sea rising won’t effect me so I don’t give a toss, and
2) life has never been so hard for white men.
Ironically the pro-Trump moron who said it, also says he can’t be racist because he is half Chinese. Not a scintilla of self awareness….
If BludgerTrack’s PV swings from 2022 in NSW are applied to Fowler, you get:
Labor 35.6%
Liberal 15.1%
Greens 8.0%
ON 6.7%
Others 34.6%
Those ‘Others’ this election are Dai Le, a Family First and a Libertarian.
In 2022, the ‘Others’ were, similarly, Dai Le (29.5%), a Libertarian (then Lib Dem, 2.4%) and a UAP (6.4%), for a total of 38.3%. Working on the assumption the Libertarian gets 2.4% again, and Dai Le gets the same proportion of the rest of the ‘Others’ as last time, she would be on track to get about 26.5% this time.
In 2022, the Dai Le’s PV was 6.6% behind Labor’s. If the above estimates are right, this time her PV will be 9.1% behind Labor’s – 2.5% worse than last time.
In 2022, her TCP (51.6%) was 3.2% ahead of Labor’s (48.4%). This is only 0.7% more than what may be the deterioration in her PV this time against Labor.
I think Fowler is going to be a very close result this time.
pied piper says:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 11:20 pm
Never heard Trump talk about Nazis so what’s the link apart from crackpot labor luvvies conspiracy wet dreams.
……………………………………………………………………..
Come on, babe
Can’t you see, I’m the Pied Piper
Trust in me, I’m the Pied Piper
And I’ll show you where it’s at
The Albonatorsays:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 11:10 pm
When I was last on everyone was putting up their predictions….some saying 75 some 80 some 84 one even above 90…….when I log back on the sky is falling Dutto about to be crowned Emperor for life. What disasters happened? I search the Guardian, the back comments and I’m ashamed to admit it, but I also logged on to The Advertiser. Nothing. What has caused this sudden hysteria and mass bed wetting? Far as I can see its Morgan which nobody believes in….until now apparently…..ahh 54-46 from Morgan!!…..lol. Get it together Man!!
============================================================
A couple of concerned posts and something about betting market moving bigly and it’s panic.lol
Sportsbet hasn’t moved that much. Maybe other bookies have.
I think morgan is actually influencing the punters with the bookies.
An interesting twist following the death of Francis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_rVJ26pGXQ
The only thing that matters in Fowler is if the NSW Labor Right shooting itself in the foot by forcing through Kristina Keneally’s parachute candidature has done permanent damage to Labor in the seat, or if the correction of their mistake by doing what they should have done last time and making Tu Le their candidate will return the seat back to the norm.
It’s not something possible to guess or apply previous results to. If the Liberals & Dai Le had done any polling that looked like she would be returned it would have leaked to the press to use as a weapon against Albo.
“An interesting twist following the death of Francis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_rVJ26pGXQ”
That video sounds like an AI slop voice-over & script with generic stock footage played over it.
I’ve gotta say that voters are not enthused about this election. They don’t like anything much about it. They really, really don’t like the mood, the choices, the campaigns, the time taken to attend and vote. They are not angry, on the whole – though some are – but they are fed up.
Very unusual election. Committed Lib and Labor voters are demonstrative. The rest have a sense of restrained reluctance and confidentiality about them.
The comments – really, not many – at prepoll were to the effect that Labor will win.
The party workers from the Libs, the Greens and the others are generally far too talkative with voters – come across as intrusive, supercilious – generally quite irritating.
The end of the process can’t come soon enough for just about everyone.
Ghost Of Whitlam, Monday, April 28, 2025 at 11:36 pm:
Good point, and cause for optimism about Fowler returning to the Labor column.
Fed labor government which is spending the highest in decades was warned today of a threat by S and P about a threat to AAA credit rating if its not bought under control.
Meanwhile Labor has been caught out lying about Russia-Indonesia.
The last week has been back to what it was up until a couple of months ago for fed labor that is terrible.
Scare campaigns aka mediscare and trump are pathetic.
”…But Dutton’s claims about veterans were contested by Returned and Services League bodies, which backed the role of the [Welcome to Country] ceremonies on Anzac Day in an attempt to defuse a debate which has escalated since far-right hecklers disrupted services in Perth and Melbourne last Friday.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-doesn-t-want-welcome-to-country-on-anzac-day-20250428-p5lutc.html
Peter Dutton is pathetic.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 11:36 pm
I’ve gotta say that voters are not enthused about this election. They don’t like anything much about it. They really, really don’t like the mood, the choices, the campaigns, the time taken to attend and vote. They are not angry, on the whole – though some are – but they are fed up.
Very unusual election. Committed Lib and Labor voters are demonstrative. The rest have a sense of restrained reluctance and confidentiality about them.
The comments – really, not many – at prepoll were to the effect that Labor will win.
The party workers from the Libs, the Greens and the others are generally far too talkative with voters – come across as intrusive, supercilious – generally quite irritating.
The end of the process can’t come soon enough for just about everyone.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
It has been no different from any other election I have witnessed, federal, state or local.
I am enjoying my political grand final to the MAX.
At this moment in time I’m saying Labor wins with 80 seats, up 3 seats from what I’ve been predicting for the last 12 months.
However, I will update that daily now that its only 5 days to go till polling booths open on Saturday.
pied pipersays:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 11:20 pm
Never heard Trump talk about Nazis so what’s the link apart from crackpot labor luvvies conspiracy wet dreams.
===================================================
Some examples from Trumps unified Reich.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-said-hitler-did-some-good-things-and-wanted-generals-like-the-nazis-former-chief-of-staff-kelly-claims
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-claims-nazis-treated-jewish-143613005.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADBkUFoi3ma7p9s1dbvXXsh81bigiQ3pdNGK6Av3Iel0mNCu8PC2MGVsLFl4V-KsCI6OzWLcUL3ObV5MwP3BxzDAb-jk-94V3_CExH9QI1iO1RQoncy0Mf6gNPKslPf8G0klRqChS4iqEfzdJ-hqiRk170W5fEIVa5GFzMps_Gbh
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-22/elon-musk-accused-salute-donald-trump-inauguration/104845166
pied piper says:
Monday, April 28, 2025 at 11:43 pm
Fed labor government which is spending the highest in decades was warned today of a threat by S and P about a threat to AAA credit rating if its not bought under control.
Meanwhile Labor has been caught out lying about Russia-Indonesia.
The last week has been back to what it was up until a couple of months ago for fed labor that is terrible.
Scare campaigns aka mediscare and trump are pathetic.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Hey, come on, babe
Follow me, I’m the Pied Piper
Follow me, I’m the Pied Piper
And I’ll show you where it’s at
Albanese calls out Dutton for the empty vessel he is, and it’s timing is impeccable:
[‘Anthony Albanese has painted Peter Dutton as an unkind potential prime minister and pitched stable leadership as vital to Australia in an “uncertain time”.
Mr Albanese took aim at the opposition leader during a wide-ranging interview on 7.30 that also saw him comment on his affordable housing programs, Australia’s credit rating and the cost of living.
During this campaign Mr Dutton has been compared by opponents to US President Donald Trump and been stylised as more of a hard-man leader than the PM, but Mr Albanese said Mr Dutton had hurt his own brand by doing so.
“I think Peter Dutton has darkened his own brand,” Mr Albanese told 7.30.
“He has made a career of promoting division, punching down on vulnerable people, seeking to divide the community, engaging in culture wars.
“What I’ve done is to try and bring people together.”
Mr Albanese furthered that attack as he compared himself as a contrasting, “kinder” option.
“Peter Dutton seems to think that bluster and yelling and interrupting and being rude is strength, it’s not,” Mr Albanese said.
“One of the things that you have to do as a leader is show kindness and compassion to the vulnerable. That’s part of my character. That’s not weakness.”
Mr Albanese said that if he is re-elected he intends to serve his full-term and called on Australia to end the revolving door of prime ministers.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-28/anthony-albanese-says-peter-dutton-darkened-his-brand-/105180760
If BludgerTrack’s PV swings from 2022 in Qld are applied to Brisbane, you get:
Labor 29.8%
LNP 37.0 %
Greens 26.0%
ON 3.6%
Others 3.6%
If this eventuated, the final TCP would then be Labor v LNP. If Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences, they get to 50.6% TPP, even without any ON or ‘Others’ preferences. If Labor gets 30% of ON preferences and 40% of ‘Others’, they get to 53.1% TPP.
I fancy Labor to pick up Brisbane from the Greens – but that depends what sophomore surge Bates gets. Typically, it is 2-3%, which if it comes equally from Labor’s and LNP’s PV, might be enough to get him past Labor and into a TCP contest against the LNP.
pied pooper dumping massive loads of shit again.
Time he started to live in the real world.
Comparisons of Drumpf with Hitler are a bit silly.
He doesn’t have any strategy or smarts.
Neither does the next level down.
Some folk a coupla levels below are devious and evil, but the Punch and Judy show ‘know nothing’.
“I fancy Labor to pick up Brisbane from the Greens”
==============================
They are favorites on sportsbet ATM. Alp 2.00 greens 2.75
Donald Trump is a unifying force.
Not in the USA, of course – in Canada:
https://youtube.com/shorts/YcJnVBf_zEA?si=7jE6dpWYVXYiNfJf
Edging toward a cease-fire. The people are not so different. Global politics says they have to die.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62j1848509o
Meanwhile courageous Yanks kill random people. No change there.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qw274w72vo
On the subject of the baleful effect of Reactionaries on life in this country….which party is it that has returned to degrading aboriginal culture and custom for political purposes?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/27/peter-dutton-flicks-switch-to-culture-wars-as-cost-of-living-proves-tough-egg-to-crack